Leslie headed towards Bermuda; Tropical Storm Michael forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to suffer from moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. Satellite loops show that Leslie has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, and the storm is crawling north at walking pace, 3 mph. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification. However, Leslie's motion will continue to be slow, keeping the storm over its cool water wake, and keeping any intensification slow. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Sunday morning, as indicated in the official NHC forecast. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak through Friday, as Leslie is stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer models continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 48-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Friday night that lasts until Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, but the uncertainty in 4-day NHC forecasts is around 200 miles. Thus, the latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for just a 12% chance of hurricane force winds on Bermuda on Saturday. Nevertheless, Leslie is capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center has very little in the way of heavy thunderstorms surrounding it, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The storm may also miss land entirely, and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Large swells from Leslie reached Cape Hatteras, North Carolina last night, and will begin pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard today through Sunday. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical Storm Michael forms in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has formed in the Central Atlantic on Monday, but is not destined for fame. Satellite loops show that this is a very small tropical cyclone, and the storm is well away from any land areas. Michael is under moderately high shear of 15 - 20 knots, and this shear is forecast to remain at 15 - 20 knots through Wednesday. Since Michael is such a small storm, just a modest increase in shear could destroy it. But if Michael survives until Thursday, when shear is expected to fall to the low range, it has the opportunity to strengthen.

Michaels's formation on September 4 puts 2012 in third place for earliest formation date of the season's thirteenth storm. The record is held jointly by 2005, which had Hurricane Maria form on September 2, and 2011, which had Tropical Storm Lee form on September 2 (there was an unnamed tropical storm that year before Lee.) None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas. Michael is a classic example of the type of storm that likely would have been missed before the advent of satellites, since the storm is small, far from land, and may be short-lived.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting HurrikanEB:


Is this at all associated with the moisture of isaac, or is the bulk of isaac's moisture in the system currently over the northeast/canada border?

..or both/neither?


Seems as if the bigger part of ex-Isaac split off and carried a lot of energy to the south, which then sucked up a lot of moisture from the Gulf. The piece that's left and moving to the northeast looks weaker to me, but I can't really tell. All I know is that this low seemed to have hidden a lot of energy in the back room somewhere, since it really hasn't done much after it left Arkansas.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9743
Quoting HurrikanEB:


Is this at all associated with the moisture of isaac, or is the bulk of isaac's moisture in the system currently over the northeast/canada border?

..or both/neither?


It's hard to pin down, because this was part of a feeder band on Isaac, but not the primary circulation. The vorticity split into two pieces, one went north and one went south.

Ivan did something similar in 2004, and several people were even joking that the "I" storm might do this again this time, it looks like it is/may be happening after all.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1499
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1210 WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE ONCE IT MOVES
OVER WATER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

So it begins, already looking decent.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Quoting RTSplayer:



Both GFS and Euro develop it to at least borderline TD/TS status, maybe even mid-level TS...

1002mb is stronger than Michael is right now...


The pressure in Montgomery AL is 1009 Mb now, so 1002 Mb isn't a big drop. I can see maybe a TD but it will get into Florida before it has a chance to do much more, assuming it stays reasonably small.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9743
Quoting forecaster1:
looks like the Isaac left overs are going to merge with the low near South FL. Re-generate no but may turn into a strong nor easter which will rush up the eastern seaboard just in time to meet Leslie in NY City. More rain for Fl,and a double strike on the northeast coast. While those storms clear out, watch out in the caribbean for the next storm. My five day forecast.


that is an ULL, and GFS forecasts it to move NE over the next few days, while the "Remnants" will oscillate around in the Gulf, apparently moving SW for a few days, and then turning back around.

So no to the merger.

It has a much higher chance of merging with the surface low already smack in the middle of the Gulf.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1499
If Nadine does form in the Gulf, it will be the fourth US landfall this season. If that happens, it will mark the first such occurrence since 2008 that more than three tropical cyclones have hit the US in a single season (Don was so pitiful last year that you may as well just discount him). Pitiful.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
Quoting flcanes:

it will be named nadine though


Either that or Isaac Jr.
Member Since: December 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
Quoting RTSplayer:



Both GFS and Euro develop it to at least borderline TD/TS status, maybe even mid-level TS...

1002mb is stronger than Michael is right now...


Is this at all associated with the moisture of isaac, or is the bulk of isaac's moisture in the system currently over the northeast/canada border?

..or both/neither?
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Quoting sar2401:


Geez...rush up the coast to meet Leslie in NYC? What models are you looking at?


Mostly blondes.. lol
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Wow....I'm pretty sure that since they started this silly yellow-orange-red crayon policy this is the first time we've had a circle over the CONUS.


It may have happened for some of the MCC systems coming off the east coast, or something parked over Florida peninsula; not sure though.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1499
Quoting forecaster1:
looks like the Isaac left overs are going to merge with the low near South FL. Re-generate no but may turn into a strong nor easter which will rush up the eastern seaboard just in time to meet Leslie in NY City. More rain for Fl,and a double strike on the northeast coast. While those storms clear out, watch out in the caribbean for the next storm. My five day forecast.


Geez...rush up the coast to meet Leslie in NYC? What models are you looking at?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9743
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1210 WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE ONCE IT MOVES
OVER WATER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



Both GFS and Euro develop it to at least borderline TD/TS status, maybe even mid-level TS...

1002mb is stronger than Michael is right now...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1499

Quoting CosmicEvents:
Wow....I'm pretty sure that since they started this silly yellow-orange-red crayon policy this is the first time we've had a circle over the CONUS.
I'm not completely sure so don't quote me on this, but I think they did it for Tropical Depression Five in 2010 as well.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
This is one of the strangest GFS runs I have ever seen. Especially for this time of year..Link
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Wow....I'm pretty sure that since they started this silly yellow-orange-red crayon policy this is the first time we've had a circle over the CONUS.
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Still wondering why 11N/37W wasn't mentioned.



12 hours old , but just sayin...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1210 WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE ONCE IT MOVES
OVER WATER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


Uh-oh!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pretty good explanation for what's happening from the mets up in Birmingham. Most of the storms are starting to dissipate, so maybe I can get some sleep tonight with no artillery barrage going on. :)

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
634 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 4 2012


Update...
for aviation discussion.


&&


Discussion...


The remnants of Isaac continues to slide east-southeast this afternoon. As we watch satellite...you can see that most of the
circulation has dissipated this afternoon with the center and has begun the break apart that the models have been hinting at. One piece is head over the Appalachians and the other piece down through western Georgia/eastern Alabama.

The front edge of the system is helping to generate showers and isolated thunderstorms
south of I-20. Really feel as though this will be more diurnal activity and should dissipate after 9 PM. If there were to be a more persistent area of convection in the south then the rain could go past midnight...but feel as though the chances will be windling as we go through the night. One additional change to
tonight is the addition of low clouds/fog across the northern two thirds of the area after midnight.

As we move into Wednesday the main band of showers and thunderstorms...associated with an upper low...piece of the remnants of Isaac...should be to our south as the main moisture band will be to our south...although with temperatures in the low to middle 90s afternoon showers and thunderstorms are a definite possibility. The remnant low will sit in the Gulf south of Mobile on Thursday before sliding east toward Florida on Friday.

The reason it will slide east will be due to the next system to impact the weather in our neck of the Woods. A cold front will slide toward central Alabama on Saturday. Looks like the overall timing will be late morning in the northwest to late evening in the southeast. In fact most of the cloud cover should be clearing
by noon on Sunday as the winds really crank up behind the front. Once the front works through dry conditions will be in place through the end of the period. We will begin to see temperatures modify upwards once again on Monday.


Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9743
looks like the Isaac left overs are going to merge with the low near South FL. Re-generate no but may turn into a strong nor easter which will rush up the eastern seaboard just in time to meet Leslie in NY City. More rain for Fl,and a double strike on the northeast coast. While those storms clear out, watch out in the caribbean for the next storm. My five day forecast.
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from Newport/Morehead, NC NWS Discussion about the trough

FOR SAT-TUE...12Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WITH DEEP UPR TROF MOVING ACROSS AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...RATHER THAN SLOW MOVING UPR LOW. HOWEVER FCST CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW NORMAL PER HPC EXTENDED DISCUSSION DUE TO MODEL
FLIP-FLOPS...THUS ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVOIUS FCST. CONTINUED
NEAR CLIMO 20/30 POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT DID INCREASE POPS
TO 50% FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON GOOD CHC
OF SHOWER/TSTMS WITH UPR TROF ENERGY.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Isaac ruined their day....


It%u2019s about time we have some photo evidence of the grounded Hansa Berlin in Cuba.�

gCaptain broke the news that the Hansa Berlin containership quietly grounded (well, maybe not so quietly) off the coast of Cuba some 20 miles from Havana during Hurricane Isaac.

The vessel is a 1993 built containership with a capacity of 1.016 TEU and is flying the Liberian flag.� Hamburg-based Leonhardt & Blumberg, who owns and operates the vessel, received permission from the United States to hire at least one US salvage company, possibly others, to work on the salvage of this vessel.

The vessel was on her way from Santiago de Cuba to Havana when she grounded after suffering an engine failure.� All 19 crew members were taken off the vessel without incident or injury.


Somebody ain't gettin paid.


This is just plain stupidity, as they shouldn't have been in the area to start...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1499
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1210 WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE ONCE IT MOVES
OVER WATER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
Quoting leftlink:



The fact that Andrew ranks so much below Katrina is a reason not to go to a pure "kinetic energy" oriented model. A "danger" scale should capture both the large-storm-size aspects of Katrina and the devastating wind aspects of Andrew.

Andrew had a very concentrated area of devastation. If andrew had the same winds speeds with a diameter for the maximum winds similar to Isaac's, then those max winds would have been extremely close to Miami and it would have killed 10s of thousands of people... so a hypothetical storm with Andrew type winds with a storm the size of Katrina might be a good reason to have a "category 6" on the scale!



Katrina had 175mph winds over water, the same as Andrew's max wind speed.

Katrina's minimum pressure was 902mb vs 922mb for Andrew.

Katrina's land fall pressure was 920mb, which is still lower than Andrew, and it had hurricane force winds at a 120 mile radius.

"Andrew was a small tropical cyclone, with winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) extending out only about 90 miles (140 km) from its center."


Katrina: 74mph @ 120 miles radius(wiki)
Katrina: 35mph @ ~200 miles radius (memory, I think)

vs

Hurricane force not cited in article, but probably about half of the TS force radius.

Andrew 74mph @ 45 miles radius (estimated)

Andrew: 35mph @ 90 miles radius(Wiki)


Seriously? You think Andrew was more intense?

Katrina had like 7 times the area of hurricane force winds, and 5 times the area of TS force winds...

Since they both had the same max winds over water, it's not even a question for peak intensity over water, Katrina was several times more powerful.

At landfall, it's a bit harder to see, but Katrina is definitely more powerful by far.


Maximum storm surge from Andrew was 16 feet.

Max from Katrina was 27feet officially and may have been higher.


Because Katrina's eye was so large, the "donut" of the eye wall surrounding the eye was much, much larger than Andrew's, meaning it had it's peak winds over a much larger area (both at peak intensity and landfall intensity).


There's lots of other things I can discuss, but it's getting old at this point.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1499

Quoting redwagon:

Yes, but *how*? Is it as simple as upper lows sustaining llcs through any hurdle to keep convergence going?
Upper lows have nothing to do with it. A tropical cyclone generates convergence on its own.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119


Isaac ruined their day....


It's about time we have some photo evidence of the grounded Hansa Berlin in Cuba.

gCaptain broke the news that the Hansa Berlin containership quietly grounded (well, maybe not so quietly) off the coast of Cuba some 20 miles from Havana during Hurricane Isaac.

The vessel is a 1993 built containership with a capacity of 1.016 TEU and is flying the Liberian flag. Hamburg-based Leonhardt & Blumberg, who owns and operates the vessel, received permission from the United States to hire at least one US salvage company, possibly others, to work on the salvage of this vessel.

The vessel was on her way from Santiago de Cuba to Havana when she grounded after suffering an engine failure. All 19 crew members were taken off the vessel without incident or injury.
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Severe Thunderstorm moving in Palm Beach County! My area has been in a continuous flash-flood warning since Isaac passed.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


The next few days will tell. Stay tuned.


Are you reading from Grothar's script now? LOL
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Quoting KoritheMan:

In the simplest terms, they are self-sustaining.

Yes, but *how*? Is it as simple as upper lows sustaining llcs through any hurdle to keep convergence going?
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map of where the troughs are currently at-black dotted lines
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Quoting sar2401:


Well, they're technically right, it is a mesoscale convective complex. The remnants of Isaac seem to be what gave it a kick start, but it really is its own system now. So far, what happens if the MCC really develops into a low and, if it get back into the Gulf, is pretty speculative. They are not doing a show for weather nerds like us, they just want to tell the public why it's raining or if there's a chance of rain. If this blob turns into something, they'll get into it when and if the NHC says something about it. I can't say I really blame them for not wanting to mention Isaac when it's only peripherally conected to a remnant system.



ahhh gotcha..thanks for clarifying
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Quoting TallyWeather15:
Any chance that if the remnants of Isaac develop it could stall in the gulf and then turn around and go north back to the Florida panhandle?


The next few days will tell. Stay tuned.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I just finished up a blog.

You should read it :)
What if I don't? :P
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Quoting redwagon:

Anybody have any thoughts on persistence?
In the simplest terms, they are self-sustaining.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
I just finished up a blog.

You should read it :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7291


so Leslie is supposed to merge with the front or is that the trough that is supposed to lift her north?

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Quoting TallyWeather15:
Any chance that if the remnants of Isaac develop it could stall in the gulf and then turn around and go north back to the Florida panhandle?


It's going to stall. The models agree on that. The question is, how strong will the second trough be? If it's not too strong, then yes, it could theoretically head into the panhandle. Anything's possible at this point, but for now peninsular Florida still seems most likely.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The big picture...post 596

That's a pretty picture for September 4. A work in progress however.
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Where has Levi been?
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Any chance that if the remnants of Isaac develop it could stall in the gulf and then turn around and go north back to the Florida panhandle?
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Alright I admit I'm hung up with the GFS long range models, just think it is cool to look at where the possibility of a storm might go, and no I don't take it as gospel, since it changes from run to run and sometimes is a difference of a 1000 miles. Who knows the next run might not even show a storm that far out.


Hahahaha well admiting you have a problem is half the battle no?! I like them too, but I just like looking at weather maps, so doesn't matter if they're actual or possibilities!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Never know... ;)

Isaac, Helene and Ernesto were long-tracking, persistent storms.

What makes a storm so persistent, I don't know. I suspect it has to do with the ability to stay small and reconfigure when necessary, I dunno..

So far our persistent storms have been Southern ones. Technically, a cyclone's raison d' etre is to equalize the temps between the surfaces and atmosphere.

Anybody have any thoughts on persistence?
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The big picture...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10577
Quoting WxLogic:
18Z NGP

For now there sure appears to be a decent amount of model support for a possible re intensification of Isaac's remnants into a TD (minimum) as it would be over water for a while before the TROF picks it up and moves E to NE.
I'm thinking a storm like Henri of 2003 is not out of the question. It also looks like the models are in more of an agreement that in 5 days the next Cape-Verde system develops.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:




LOL At the rate Isaac is going (yes, his remnants technically I know, for anyone wanting to say)
I think I may end up with Isaac in the UK at some point!


Never know... ;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Getting rain from Isaac.....


Quoting KoritheMan:
Just wrote another blog, including a section on the "I want to live forever" Isaac. Enjoy.


LOL At the rate Isaac is going (yes, his remnants technically I know, for anyone wanting to say)
I think I may end up with Isaac in the UK at some point!
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Wow, this cell that was supposed to hammer me just went poof! I guess I am a little lucky after all. I'm in boca raton, and if you zoom in on the radar you can see the cell just fizzle out right before it gets to us. LOL
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18Z NGP

For now there sure appears to be a decent amount of model support for a possible re intensification of Isaac's remnants into a TD (minimum) as it would be over water for a while before the TROF picks it up and moves E to NE.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
Alright I admit I'm hung up with the GFS long range models, just think it is cool to look at where the possibility of a storm might go, and no I don't take it as gospel, since it changes from run to run and sometimes is a difference of a 1000 miles. Who knows the next run might not even show a storm that far out.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


What the heck is this?



This?



Or maybe this?




No, no I got it, maybe they faked the satellite photos...



Maybe this one's a fake?




Come on guy, you have to come up with something better than fake data.

Want to know why?

Google Earth has maps that are far better than needed to detect any faking of data, so good in fact that some NOAA products now run on Google mapping software...

How stupid do you think people are, really?


I'm still waiting for the "expose" about how the IPCC horribly got the Arctic sea ice estimates wrong, but they erred in being too conservative (no pun intended) so that doesn't suit the pre-conceived narrative some would like to write about climate change.
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Leslie... Lady of the night,
putting her makeup on....


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Quoting sar2401:


Ummm...huh?
>



dr m said isaac is gone
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3040

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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