Leslie headed towards Bermuda; Tropical Storm Michael forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to suffer from moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. Satellite loops show that Leslie has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, and the storm is crawling north at walking pace, 3 mph. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification. However, Leslie's motion will continue to be slow, keeping the storm over its cool water wake, and keeping any intensification slow. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Sunday morning, as indicated in the official NHC forecast. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak through Friday, as Leslie is stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer models continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 48-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Friday night that lasts until Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, but the uncertainty in 4-day NHC forecasts is around 200 miles. Thus, the latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for just a 12% chance of hurricane force winds on Bermuda on Saturday. Nevertheless, Leslie is capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center has very little in the way of heavy thunderstorms surrounding it, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The storm may also miss land entirely, and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Large swells from Leslie reached Cape Hatteras, North Carolina last night, and will begin pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard today through Sunday. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical Storm Michael forms in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has formed in the Central Atlantic on Monday, but is not destined for fame. Satellite loops show that this is a very small tropical cyclone, and the storm is well away from any land areas. Michael is under moderately high shear of 15 - 20 knots, and this shear is forecast to remain at 15 - 20 knots through Wednesday. Since Michael is such a small storm, just a modest increase in shear could destroy it. But if Michael survives until Thursday, when shear is expected to fall to the low range, it has the opportunity to strengthen.

Michaels's formation on September 4 puts 2012 in third place for earliest formation date of the season's thirteenth storm. The record is held jointly by 2005, which had Hurricane Maria form on September 2, and 2011, which had Tropical Storm Lee form on September 2 (there was an unnamed tropical storm that year before Lee.) None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas. Michael is a classic example of the type of storm that likely would have been missed before the advent of satellites, since the storm is small, far from land, and may be short-lived.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AussieStorm:


for a laugh...



















Wow. What a waste of code and computer processing power.

Until you get 5 day forecast skill to like 0.99 it's useless to really talk about anything at all beyond 15 days, and even that is laughable.

10 days is about the max that is somewhat believable, and once in a while accurate, at present time.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting washingtonian115:
East coast doom!!!.

East coast and GOM doom!!!!
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Katrina had 175mph winds over water, the same as Andrew's max wind speed.

Katrina's minimum pressure was 902mb vs 922mb for Andrew.

Katrina's land fall pressure was 920mb, which is still lower than Andrew, and it had hurricane force winds at a 120 mile radius.

"Andrew was a small tropical cyclone, with winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) extending out only about 90 miles (140 km) from its center."


Katrina: 74mph @ 120 miles radius(wiki)
Katrina: 35mph @ ~200 miles radius (memory, I think)

vs

Hurricane force not cited in article, but probably about half of the TS force radius.

Andrew 74mph @ 45 miles radius (estimated)

Andrew: 35mph @ 90 miles radius(Wiki)


Seriously? You think Andrew was more intense?

Katrina had like 7 times the area of hurricane force winds, and 5 times the area of TS force winds...

Since they both had the same max winds over water, it's not even a question for peak intensity over water, Katrina was several times more powerful.

At landfall, it's a bit harder to see, but Katrina is definitely more powerful by far.


Maximum storm surge from Andrew was 16 feet.

Max from Katrina was 27feet officially and may have been higher.


Because Katrina's eye was so large, the "donut" of the eye wall surrounding the eye was much, much larger than Andrew's, meaning it had it's peak winds over a much larger area (both at peak intensity and landfall intensity).


There's lots of other things I can discuss, but it's getting old at this point.

If we are talking landfall...Andrew was far more powerful at landfall in SFla then Katrina was in LA/MS. Forget the size, the windspeed difference between the two is/was exponentially more devastating and destruction in favor of Andrew.
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The models are coming into better agreement on an eventual NE turn for Leslie... The official forecast will likely need to be tweaked some at 11 as it doesn't show that:



(4,000th comment!!)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7607
Quoting Grothar:


Just because I lived there, it doesn't mean they give me information. LOL I have to wait just like the rest of the blog.


well i figured you could at least pop in there and peek over their shoulder without em knowing it
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Quoting AussieStorm:


for a laugh...

















East coast doom!!!.
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Quoting K8eCane:


Gro! Youre here....whats the latest euro?


Just because I lived there, it doesn't mean they give me information. LOL I have to wait just like the rest of the blog.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25312
Quoting TomballTXPride:

It's not strange, Bud. I wouldn't put too much credence in it beyond 10 days. Even beyond 120 hours is pushing it.


for a laugh...

















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Quoting TomballTXPride:

It's not strange, Bud. I wouldn't put too much credence in it beyond 10 days. Even beyond 120 hours is pushing it.

Here we go again, BUD
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Quoting RTSplayer:
What would Floridians do if Leslie turned west, and intensified into a Katrina sized cat 5 headed straight for Miami?

This is not a joke or "wish casting".


This is a hypothetical question about planning at both individual and governmental levels.


Have simulations been done to determine if the necessary evacuations are even possible in such a scenario?

NOLA had done the "Hurricane Pam" scenario before 2005 season, and found themselves lacking, but were not able to correct the situations.

Has Florida done similar drills?


Yes. The plan is to put your head between your legs and...well, you know the rest. :) There's really no way to plan for such an unlikely event. A short notice cat 5 hurricane is going to pretty much leave it up to individuals and local resources to respond as best they can. You can only plan for something like this when you have resources that can be called in from far enough away. Some things still have to be done by the seat of your pants.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13089
Quoting Civicane49:
Leslie and Michael:



Michael and Leslie both looking good tonight.
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Quoting sar2401:


The pressure in Montgomery AL is 1009 Mb now, so 1002 Mb isn't a big drop. I can see maybe a TD but it will get into Florida before it has a chance to do much more, assuming it stays reasonably small.
I don't think this will be a small system...look at the cloud structure already and the way the models have elongated it to the NE in 3-4 days.

I would expect to see something more like Debbie.

But Time will tell.

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Anyone know when the next CSU forecast comes out?.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'd like to remind everybody that this area of thunderstorm activity across Alabama is not Isaac's low-level center, but its mid-level circulation. That being said, if this does develop into a tropical cyclone, it will be deemed Tropical Depression Fourteeen/Tropical Storm Nadine and not Isaac once more.



Yeah, and I'd like to point out there is a naked LLC sitting in the Gulf, just waiting to be "mated" with some MLC and convection.

What are the odds of this ridiculous scenario?!
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Some bloggers are comparing this to Ivan. If I remember correctly, the NHC kept Ivan alive throughout its run. They retired Isaac to the NHC archives.


I dunno. Ivan lost tropical characteristics on September 18 while crossing Virginia. He became a tropical depression later that day while getting out into the Atlantic. He was not a tropical depression over VA, so I'm not sure why the NHC decided to keep his name. Isaac for sure hasn't been a tropical depression, so anything named for his bits and pieces should be Nadine.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13089
Quoting lobdelse81:

If we do not get a major hurricane to strike the US this season, won't that make it some kind of record for going 8 yrs without one? I have looked back at historical records and can't find any period of time that great where a major has not hit the US. If you find some data to prove me wrong, feel free to show me:)


Actually, we're already at that record. It was made last year.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 552 Comments: 19875
What would Floridians do if Leslie turned west, and intensified into a Katrina sized cat 5 headed straight for Miami?

This is not a joke or "wish casting".


This is a hypothetical question about planning at both individual and governmental levels.


Have simulations been done to determine if the necessary evacuations are even possible in such a scenario?

NOLA had done the "Hurricane Pam" scenario before 2005 season, and found themselves lacking, but were not able to correct the situations.

Has Florida done similar drills?
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting hydrus:
This is one of the strangest GFS runs I have ever seen. Especially for this time of year..Link
Looks like early to mid October.
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Leslie and Michael:

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Quoting leftlink:


Do you have the figures for the diameter of hurricane and tropical storm winds for katrina and for andrew, both at peak strength and at landfall?


Sure.

Andrew

"HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER
...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
FROM THE CENTER."

Katrina

"HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES."

There's literally no comparison.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 552 Comments: 19875
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's done the total opposite in the east pacific.which is probably why activity has slowed down there vs earlier this year where they were popping out like crazy.
JLPR2 showed an animation of the ssts over there and how the warmer waters were propagating westward towards the CPAC.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


If the emperor was able to manipulate an entire republic (for over a decade at that), what makes you think he can't alter storm paths?


True, maybe he hates oranges, or doesn't think hockey should be in Florida.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm not completely sure so don't quote me on this, but I think they did it for Tropical Depression Five in 2010 as well.

If we do not get a major hurricane to strike the US this season, won't that make it some kind of record for going 8 yrs without one? I have looked back at historical records and can't find any period of time that great where a major has not hit the US. If you find some data to prove me wrong, feel free to show me:)
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like September will be active.I think 6 storms is a good bet.
That is why I upped my forecast to 18/9/3.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

I agree. Any negative effects our brief "El Nino" event might have had on seasonal activity is all but vanished.
It's done the total opposite in the east pacific.which is probably why activity has slowed down there vs earlier this year where they were popping out like crazy.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Katrina had 175mph winds over water, the same as Andrew's max wind speed.

Katrina's minimum pressure was 902mb vs 922mb for Andrew.

Katrina's land fall pressure was 920mb, which is still lower than Andrew, and it had hurricane force winds at a 120 mile radius.

"Andrew was a small tropical cyclone, with winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) extending out only about 90 miles (140 km) from its center."


Katrina: 74mph @ 120 miles radius(wiki)
Katrina: 35mph @ ~200 miles radius (memory, I think)

vs

Hurricane force not cited in article, but probably about half of the TS force radius.

Andrew 74mph @ 45 miles radius (estimated)

Andrew: 35mph @ 90 miles radius(Wiki)


Seriously? You think Andrew was more intense?

Katrina had like 7 times the area of hurricane force winds, and 5 times the area of TS force winds...

Since they both had the same max winds over water, it's not even a question for peak intensity over water, Katrina was several times more powerful.

At landfall, it's a bit harder to see, but Katrina is definitely more powerful by far.


Maximum storm surge from Andrew was 16 feet.

Max from Katrina was 27feet officially and may have been higher.


Because Katrina's eye was so large, the "donut" of the eye wall surrounding the eye was much, much larger than Andrew's, meaning it had it's peak winds over a much larger area (both at peak intensity and landfall intensity).


There's lots of other things I can discuss, but it's getting old at this point.


I think I was talking about Katrina at landfall, not Katrina at peak strength.

And I think my previous comments indicate that I agreed with you.

Do you have the figures for the diameter of hurricane and tropical storm winds for katrina and for andrew, both at peak strength and at landfall?
Member Since: December 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 134

Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like September will be active.I think 6 storms is a good bet.
I agree. Any negative effects our brief "El Nino" event might have had on seasonal activity is all but vanished.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 552 Comments: 19875
Quoting mcluvincane:
Nobody is speaking about the impacts issac jr will have in New Orleans. They definitely don't need the rain


What makes you think it will have any impact in New Orleans? The steering curents are all east, not west. Believe or not, there are a lot of places east of New Orleans that don't need any more rain either, and this blob is likely to give it to them.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13089
Looks like September will be active.I think 6 storms is a good bet.
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Latest discussion from my local NWS...

SUNDAY-TUESDAY...
TS LESLIE WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. WHILE THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT ON A
TRACK WELL EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. COMPLEX PATTERN GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WITH EVOLUTION OF CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
EXTENT OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGING...AND FORECAST TIME RANGE LEADS TO
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM AN IMPACT PERSPECTIVE. AT THE VERY
LEAST EXPECTING LARGE SURF TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OCEAN
BEACHES DURING THIS TIME. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7607
Quoting mcluvincane:
Nobody is speaking about the impacts issac jr will have in New Orleans. They definitely don't need the rain


Because we don't know definitively where it's going yet.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 552 Comments: 19875
Quoting mcluvincane:
Nobody is speaking about the impacts issac jr will have in New Orleans. They definitely don't need the rain

The NHC isn't calling it Isaac or remnants of Isaac, so I will just call it the Northern GOM Blob.

You are correct, No one in and around New Orleans needs anymore rain for a long while.
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Quoting LostTomorrows:


Yeah, Debby was smart in that regard: she just saw Texas and went "Noooope!" and went on to wreak havoc on Florida instead, she had a sense of humour. >_<


If the emperor was able to manipulate an entire republic (for over a decade at that), what makes you think he can't alter storm paths?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 552 Comments: 19875
Warning for severe winds and high temperatures across the State

Wednesday September 5, 2012 - 08:53 EST


Fire authorities are warning people to have their bushfire plans ready with severe winds and high temperatures forecast across much of the state today.

A total fire ban is in place with authorities fearing winds gusts of up to 100 kilometres-an-hour will pose a serious bushfire risk.

The wild weather is forecast to develop in the Western and Alpine districts in the morning and then extend to the Illawarra and Central Tablelands by midday.

It's expected to hit Sydney then move north by mid-afternoon and early evening.

Rural Fire Service Spokesman Brendan Doyle says people need to take extreme care.

"Any fire that may occur has the potential to spread quickly and prove quite challenging for fire fighters," he said.

He says people need to take notice of the fire ban.

"This means that there will be no lighting of fires in the open, anyone wishing to do pile burns or their own hazard reduction that will not happen today and anyone wanting to use a BBQ - it must be a gas or electric BBQ and you must have a water constant supply nearby."


- ABC
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Nobody is speaking about the impacts issac jr will have in New Orleans. They definitely don't need the rain
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Quoting Grothar:



Hey, I saw it first. :)


Gro! Youre here....whats the latest euro?
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651. LostTomorrows
12:07 AM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:

Nah, the Empire is just supplying them an infinite supply of deflector shields in exchange for their resources/livestock.


Yeah, Debby was smart in that regard: she just saw Texas and went "Noooope!" and went on to wreak havoc on Florida instead, she had a sense of humour. >_<
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
650. Grothar
12:07 AM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:


Are you reading from Grothar's script now? LOL



Hey, I saw it first. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25312
649. winter123
12:06 AM GMT on September 05, 2012
Here's an image of Isaac from 8/29. It's a "night visible" image or in technical terms:
" The SuomiNational Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals."
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
648. GeoffreyWPB
12:05 AM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'd like to remind everybody that this area of thunderstorm activity across Alabama is not Isaac's low-level center, but its mid-level circulation. That being said, if this does develop into a tropical cyclone, it will be deemed Tropical Depression Fourteeen/Tropical Storm Nadine and not Isaac once more.


Some bloggers are comparing this to Ivan. If I remember correctly, the NHC kept Ivan alive throughout its run. They retired Isaac to the NHC archives.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10971
647. redwagon
12:05 AM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'd like to remind everybody that this area of thunderstorm activity across Alabama is not Isaac's low-level center, but its mid-level circulation. That being said, if this does develop into a tropical cyclone, it will be deemed Tropical Depression Fourteeen/Tropical Storm Nadine and not Isaac once more.

Bahahuracan schooled me pretty good in that,
although Helene was an inter-basin example. Different rules.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3155
646. KoritheMan
12:05 AM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting LostTomorrows:


Texas is the graveyard for all things tropical since Ike, I think they created a magical dust barrier to ward off future Ike wannabees like Don. It worked wonders on the poor guy.
Nah, the Empire is just supplying them an infinite supply of deflector shields in exchange for their resources/livestock. Don't **** with Darth Sidious.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 552 Comments: 19875
644. sar2401
12:03 AM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

So it begins, already looking decent.


What's already looking decent? The low is still over south Alabama. Seems like we should at least wait until it gets in the Gulf before pumping it up.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13089
643. LostTomorrows
12:02 AM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
If Nadine does form in the Gulf, it will be the fourth US landfall this season. If that happens, it will mark the first such occurrence since 2008 that more than three tropical cyclones have hit the US in a single season (Don was so pitiful last year that you may as well just discount him). Pitiful.


Texas is the graveyard for all things tropical since Ike, I think they created a magical dust barrier to ward off future Ike wannabees like Don. It worked wonders on the poor guy.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
642. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:02 AM GMT on September 05, 2012
I'd like to remind everybody that this area of thunderstorm activity across Alabama is not Isaac's low-level center, but its mid-level circulation. That being said, if this does develop into a tropical cyclone, it will be deemed Tropical Depression Fourteeen/Tropical Storm Nadine and not Isaac once more.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31425
641. HurrikanEB
12:01 AM GMT on September 05, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:


It's hard to pin down, because this was part of a feeder band on Isaac, but not the primary circulation. The vorticity split into two pieces, one went north and one went south.

Ivan did something similar in 2004, and several people were even joking that the "I" storm might do this again this time, it looks like it is/may be happening after all.


Ok. yeah, i was kind of thinking that it would be more of a feeder band type of situation, since the main low(s) with isaac ended up somewhere near the ohio valley (last i knew for sure). Thanks.
Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1303
640. MAweatherboy1
12:00 AM GMT on September 05, 2012
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7607
639. GeoffreyWPB
12:00 AM GMT on September 05, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10971
638. winter123
11:59 PM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:


It's hard to pin down, because this was part of a feeder band on Isaac, but not the primary circulation. The vorticity split into two pieces, one went north and one went south.

Ivan did something similar in 2004, and several people were even joking that the "I" storm might do this again this time, it looks like it is/may be happening after all.

Wow, Isaac is the storm that cannot be killed. Was it a full week over land? It's looking quite good already.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
637. sar2401
11:58 PM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting HurrikanEB:


Is this at all associated with the moisture of isaac, or is the bulk of isaac's moisture in the system currently over the northeast/canada border?

..or both/neither?


Seems as if the bigger part of ex-Isaac split off and carried a lot of energy to the south, which then sucked up a lot of moisture from the Gulf. The piece that's left and moving to the northeast looks weaker to me, but I can't really tell. All I know is that this low seemed to have hidden a lot of energy in the back room somewhere, since it really hasn't done much after it left Arkansas.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13089

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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