Leslie headed towards Bermuda; Tropical Storm Michael forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to suffer from moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. Satellite loops show that Leslie has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, and the storm is crawling north at walking pace, 3 mph. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification. However, Leslie's motion will continue to be slow, keeping the storm over its cool water wake, and keeping any intensification slow. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Sunday morning, as indicated in the official NHC forecast. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak through Friday, as Leslie is stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer models continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 48-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Friday night that lasts until Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, but the uncertainty in 4-day NHC forecasts is around 200 miles. Thus, the latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for just a 12% chance of hurricane force winds on Bermuda on Saturday. Nevertheless, Leslie is capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center has very little in the way of heavy thunderstorms surrounding it, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The storm may also miss land entirely, and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Large swells from Leslie reached Cape Hatteras, North Carolina last night, and will begin pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard today through Sunday. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical Storm Michael forms in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has formed in the Central Atlantic on Monday, but is not destined for fame. Satellite loops show that this is a very small tropical cyclone, and the storm is well away from any land areas. Michael is under moderately high shear of 15 - 20 knots, and this shear is forecast to remain at 15 - 20 knots through Wednesday. Since Michael is such a small storm, just a modest increase in shear could destroy it. But if Michael survives until Thursday, when shear is expected to fall to the low range, it has the opportunity to strengthen.

Michaels's formation on September 4 puts 2012 in third place for earliest formation date of the season's thirteenth storm. The record is held jointly by 2005, which had Hurricane Maria form on September 2, and 2011, which had Tropical Storm Lee form on September 2 (there was an unnamed tropical storm that year before Lee.) None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas. Michael is a classic example of the type of storm that likely would have been missed before the advent of satellites, since the storm is small, far from land, and may be short-lived.

Jeff Masters

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837. DFWjc
Does anyone know if leftovers of Isaac is moving back into the gulf?
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yellow.over.crippled.issacc
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4601
Work in Jacksonville has been crazy long hours. The trip from Houston on Tuesday and Wednesday sucked I got stuck in Isaac. I took some videos and will post them when I learn how to download them off my new phone and learn how to post videos. I took Patrap's advice and took 12 above Pontchartrain before it got to bad and then thought I would see what all the hoop la was about and took a right from Mississippi on I-10 to East NOLA and about half way over the bridge it started getting bad. Stupid decisions that we make sometimes. So I worked my way across the bridge at about 25mph and drove to Bullard Ave and attempted to sleep in my Nissan Xterra. I could only take it until daybreak and crossed back over the bridge into Mississippi and then on to Florida. I never will drive into a storm after that and anyone that says that a category 1 hurricane isn't anything to worry about they have never been in one or are senseless. Like I said I will post videos when I figure it out and time permits.
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So now Michael is stationary, I think that is like 4 storms that have done that this year. Steering currents have been complex this year and I think it is because of the amount of ULLs and weaker troughs that are unable to pick these storms up and send them OTS or in Isaac's case send him quickly across America.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628

This latest scan shows what looks to be an eyewall forming, sadly it only captured around 1/2 of the center.
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Nice work Aussie Storm. China is finally drying out and Thailand is getting some rain. Useful info pour moi.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Michael now predicted to become a hurricane.

Just as I thought, I agree with the NHC on Michael a lot.
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Lil Michael


Tropical Storm MICHAEL
...MICHAEL NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 4
Location: 27.4N 43.7W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Great minds you know.. ;)

They sure do, happens here every once in a while.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well, it appears this disturbance that will be emerging is only *part* of Isaac, as Isaac's center of circulation has long since if I can recall died over America. This disturbance isn't Isaac reborn, or the ghost of Isaac, it's a disturbance born from the remnants of Isaac. Whether it even develops I have no idea, but if it does it will certainly be named Nadine and not Isaac.

e.i.
(2011)Emily's remnant low split off into two and the one to the south looped around and became Tropical Storm Gert.
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Michael now predicted to become a hurricane.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

...LESLIE INCHING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 62.8W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES




BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

...MICHAEL NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 43.7W
ABOUT 1215 MI...1950 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

So we have two systems that are slowly strengthening and are very slowly moving. Just one is big and the other one is tiny.
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165 mph winds will still ruin your whole day... ever see pics of homestead?
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

...LESLIE INCHING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 62.8W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES




BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

...MICHAEL NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 43.7W
ABOUT 1215 MI...1950 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32074
Quoting wxchaser97:

We had similar thoughts and posted them at a very similar time. I think it could be a major or strong cat2 passing Bermuda, or at least at peak strength.


Great minds you know.. ;)
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On an non-tropical note, summer was one of the warmest on record in SE MI, Link.
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Quoting hunkerdown:

Where do you get Andrew's wind speed at landfall as 121.7??

And by your "expert" opinion, the Fujita scale is meaningless also. You people are completely clueless as far as the amount of destruction that will occur when wind speeds are at 160+ mph.



Andrew's wind speed at Florida landfall was 165mph sustained. This is the number I've been using in my own debates, and is the number anyone trying to rate Andrew's landfall on an alternative scale would use if their scale used wind speeds.

Katrina had far higher storm surge and far higher max wave heights.

A cubic meter of water moving 10 miles per hour has twice the kinetic energy of a cubic meter of air moving 200mph. This is why Katrina's surges pulverized concrete bridges and buildings, levees, and in some cases entire towns.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Lets see if this organization trend holds with Leslie, all the major reliable global models have been consistently saying that Leslie could become a major hurricane as it impacts Bermuda.


We had similar thoughts and posted them at a very similar time. I think it could be a major or strong cat2 passing Bermuda, or at least at peak strength.
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It's that time of night again when Leslie blows up, lets see if she can hold it this time.


Michael is still looking good, and I think he could become a hurricane.
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Lets see if this organization trend holds with Leslie, all the major reliable global models have been consistently saying that Leslie could become a major hurricane as it impacts Bermuda.

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Quoting MahFL:
Some association should mean the same name.

Once again the NHC posted on FB while there is some connection most of Isaac went away over the US. Whatever comes back into the GOM would be a new entity.
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Quoting MahFL:
Some association should mean the same name.


Well, it appears this disturbance that will be emerging is only *part* of Isaac, as Isaac's center of circulation has long since if I can recall died over America. This disturbance isn't Isaac reborn, or the ghost of Isaac, it's a disturbance born from the remnants of Isaac. Whether it even develops I have no idea, but if it does it will certainly be named Nadine and not Isaac.
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815. MahFL
Some association should mean the same name.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

How are you going to insult me in chat and compliment me on the blog? Lol.


I like my excuse better.

Chat is different, but is also where I have got to know you more. Also, I'm going to be rolling into chat for a bit;)
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Whoa there Aussie. Chill with all of those animations. You're going to make the blog's load time go to crap.

Quoting wxchaser97:

But still you are on here a lot,other blogs, and chat. You give great insight and are a good forecaster though TA13.

How are you going to insult me in chat and compliment me on the blog? Lol.

Quoting jeffs713:

Just admit it. You're addicted to posting.

Doesn't that feel better now?

;)

I like my excuse better.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32074
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Still a few days away.It will get narrowed down as it always does as time goes by. Let's hope it goes east of Bermuda.

Once Leslie organizes more and we get closer to Bermuda issues will get resolved. I too hope Bermuda gets the left side instead of the right, impacts would be reduced.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I didn't say I didn't post a lot during the time I'm on the site, LOL.

But a relatively large chunk of my total comment count comes from other blogs as well and not just this one.

Just admit it. You're addicted to posting.

Doesn't that feel better now?

;)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I didn't say I didn't post a lot during the time I'm on the site, LOL.

But a relatively large chunk of my total comment count comes from other blogs as well and not just this one.

But still you are on here a lot,other blogs, and chat, you can't get off. You give great insight and are a good forecaster though TA13.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Right now the NHC has Leslie going to the west but this may change.


Still a few days away.It will get narrowed down as it always does as time goes by. Let's hope it goes east of Bermuda.
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They've been giving them away free in bars, so no worries.

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Good Luck Getting A Ticket!
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Not to worry, it's been lower than that even in my lifetime. I can remember when the submarine Skate surfaced at the North Pole in 1958. If you want to worry about something, worry about global cooling and whether we're heading for a Dalton or Maunder type solar minimum. Think cold.

Quoting percylives:
Hurricanes come, tear up the place, and go away. I've gotten over several of them.

If you want something to keep you up nights think of the ramifications of this year's Arctic Ocean Ice Melt. The remaining ice area is presently 16% lower than the previous record low and it's still dropping.

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Quoting Thrawst:


Hahaha looking at our Join dates... relatively similar. Comment counts.., you have 20,300 more comments than me. LOL

I didn't say I didn't post a lot during the time I'm on the site, LOL.

But a relatively large chunk of my total comment count comes from other blogs as well and not just this one.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32074
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They are going to get the worst part of Leslie as it passes by.


Basically Bermuda would be in the right front quadrant and receive the worst impacts from a cat2/3 hurricane.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Some of you guys have been on here debating about Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Andrew since this morning. I recommend that, instead of being fixated to your computer screen all day, you actually go do something. Spend some time with your family, go get fresh air, do something...

Even I don't stay on that long.


Hahaha looking at our Join dates... relatively similar. Comment counts.., you have 20,300 more comments than me. LOL
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1894


Leslie, the red jellyfish....


Tropical Storm LESLIE
...LESLIE INCHING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 4
Location: 25.2N 62.8W
Moving: NNW at 2 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
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Quoting docrod:
Code yellow for Isaac Jr at the NHC ...


I think you didn't saw this NHC Facebook message that I posted earlier.

Our view is that while this disturbance has some association with Isaac, the primary remnant of Isaac was a separate decaying circulation to the north of this one. Therefore, should this disturbance develop into a tropical cyclone it would get a new name.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14276
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Is Leslie still on track for Bermuda or?

They are going to get the worst part of Leslie as it passes by.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32074
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Is Leslie still on track for Bermuda or?

Right now the NHC has Leslie going to the west but this may change.
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Quoting docrod:
Code yellow for Isaac Jr at the NHC ...

It isn't Isaac Jr, it will be TD14 and then Nadine if it gets named.
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Is Leslie still on track for Bermuda or?
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Quoting bappit:

You'd think people could compare apples and oranges only for so long.


Katrina and Andrew were both devastating to a lot of people, to me there is no need to compare them when it comes to that
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Quoting RTSplayer:
[...]
One year soon, they won't freeze over at all.
Good post, thanks.

Grew up in the shadows of Lake Erie's snow belts. Erie is the southernmost, but also the shallowest. Erie is the only one that has frozen solid in historical times to my knowledge. Used to freeze over around mid-January when I was young...big difference because that shut off the "snow machine". Recent years have seen instances of no Erie freeze-over at all.
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Some of you guys have been on here debating about Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Andrew since this morning. I recommend that, instead of being fixated to your computer screen all day, you actually go do something. Spend some time with your family, go get fresh air, do something...

Even I don't stay on that long.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32074
This might be off topic, but the discussions for Hurricane Epsilon in 2005 are hilarious.
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Code yellow for Isaac Jr at the NHC ...
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Quoting MahFL:


A lot of Bermuda houses are rated for a Cat4.

Mine has been here for over 120 years and its still standing fine.
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Quoting ncstorm:
the katrina and andrew debate has been going on since this morning..you would think someone would have conceded by now..

You'd think people could compare apples and oranges only for so long.
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Quoting hunkerdown:

Where do you get Andrew's wind speed at landfall as 121.7??

And by your "expert" opinion, the Fujita scale is meaningless also. You people are completely clueless as far as the amount of destruction that will occur when wind speeds are at 160+ mph.


Not to mention the population affected by storms and flooding in South Florida is larger than the entire state of Lousiana. AND all the damage S. FLA got they were lucky Andrew didnt make landfall in Miami Beach
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788. MahFL
Quoting BDADUDE:
Im just glad that Bermuda is not going to be stripped clean by Leslie.


A lot of Bermuda houses are rated for a Cat4.
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Quoting percylives:
Hurricanes come, tear up the place, and go away. I've gotten over several of them.

If you want something to keep you up nights think of the ramifications of this year's Arctic Ocean Ice Melt. The remaining ice area is presently 16% lower than the previous record low and it's still dropping.



Yep.

This is nothing. Wait another 10 to 15 years.

I figure 10 years to guarantee getting rid of all the Arctic ice (though it may happen much sooner at hte present rate, perhaps in 3 or 4 years,) so just to use round numbers, 5 to 10 years to meltdown in summer for arctic sea ice.

Then 5 years after the first complete meltdown you will expect the self-reinforcing positive albedo feedback to start to each chunks out of other ice structures on the globe, or else extend the melt season farther and farther in both directions on the calendar.

Based on this post on Neven's site, and the articles he's linking to, it appears the majority of sea ice volume is being lost in such a manner so that the first complete meltdown within the end of JULY is probably not that much harder than the first meltdown in September. If the June 1 to July 31 melt gets bad enough in a particularly bad "down year," like 2007 or 2010, then it may actually just melt down all in one year.

Although he doesn't SAY that, it's an obvious conclusion from the data presented.

Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Blog Site


After 10 years, we'll have about another 16 melting days in Canada and Alaska, 8 in the arctic sea, 12 in Greenland, Europe, and Asia (all above 60N). Obviously this will provide tremendous positive albedo feedback, fueling further melting of Greenland, as well as earlier and earlier sea ice meltdowns.


You just THINK the Great Lakes melted out early this past spring.

One year soon, they won't freeze over at all.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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