Leslie headed towards Bermuda; Tropical Storm Michael forms
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to suffer from moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. Satellite loops show that Leslie has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, and the storm is crawling north at walking pace, 3 mph. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification. However, Leslie's motion will continue to be slow, keeping the storm over its cool water wake, and keeping any intensification slow. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Sunday morning, as indicated in the official NHC forecast. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak through Friday, as Leslie is stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer models continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 48-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Friday night that lasts until Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, but the uncertainty in 4-day NHC forecasts is around 200 miles. Thus, the latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for just a 12% chance of hurricane force winds on Bermuda on Saturday. Nevertheless, Leslie is capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center has very little in the way of heavy thunderstorms surrounding it, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.
Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The storm may also miss land entirely, and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Large swells from Leslie reached Cape Hatteras, North Carolina last night, and will begin pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard today through Sunday. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Wednesday afternoon.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.
Tropical Storm Michael forms in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has formed in the Central Atlantic on Monday, but is not destined for fame. Satellite loops show that this is a very small tropical cyclone, and the storm is well away from any land areas. Michael is under moderately high shear of 15 - 20 knots, and this shear is forecast to remain at 15 - 20 knots through Wednesday. Since Michael is such a small storm, just a modest increase in shear could destroy it. But if Michael survives until Thursday, when shear is expected to fall to the low range, it has the opportunity to strengthen.
Michaels's formation on September 4 puts 2012 in third place for earliest formation date of the season's thirteenth storm. The record is held jointly by 2005, which had Hurricane Maria form on September 2, and 2011, which had Tropical Storm Lee form on September 2 (there was an unnamed tropical storm that year before Lee.) None of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas. Michael is a classic example of the type of storm that likely would have been missed before the advent of satellites, since the storm is small, far from land, and may be short-lived.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yet studies of a specific local area like the Arctic Ocean (which doesn't cover the entire globe) is a perfect example of Global Warming?
Headed right for this year's hot spot..
8km NE of Samara, Costa Rica
2012-09-05 14:42:09
9.931°N
85.462°W
20.0
So far this is what we know. If you paid more attention in school, you could tell us what this means.
yes, but my family lives right near where the strike is..
KXFL-PalmCoast :: BDA-Bermuda ::
The bottom kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 4th day as a TropicalStorm
The middle kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 5th day
The top kinked line traces Leslie's path on its 6th day
Note the difference in the distances traveled by Leslie on its 4th, 5th, and 6th days
4th day: 204miles(329kilometres) @ ~8.5mph(13.7kmh)
5th day : 88miles (141kilometres) @ ~3.7mph ( 5.9kmh)
6th day : 60miles (097kilometres) @ ~2.5mph ( 4.0kmh)
The southernmost dot on the longest line is TS.Leslie's most recently reported position
The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Leslie's 2 most recent positions to it's closest approach to Bermuda
4Sept.06am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 340miles(548kilometres)ESEast of Bermuda
4Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 126miles(202kilometres)East of Bermuda
4Sept.06pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 86miles(139kilometres)WSWest of Bermuda
5Sept.12am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 238miles(383kilometres)SWest of Bermuda
5Sept.06am: TS.Leslie was heading for passage 88miles(141kilometres)WSWest of Bermuda
5Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie was heading for passage 108miles(174kilometres)East of Bermuda
Copy&paste kxfl-29.404n81.094w, 32.387n62.5w, 31.7323n66.211w, 29.885n67.781w, 31.729n66.233w, 32.281n64.887w-bda-32.368n64.647w, 21.3n60.9w- 22.1n61.4w- 22.8n61.6w- 23.4n62.2w- 23.6n62.7w, 23.6n62.7w- 23.8n62.8w- 24.1n62.7w- 24.5n62.5w- 24.8n62.5w, 24.8n62.5w-25.0n62.6w, 25.0n62.6w-25.1n62.7w, 25.1n62.7w-25.3n62.8w, 25.3n62.8w-25.6n62.8w, 25.3n62.8w-32.382n62.8w, 32.368n64.647w-32.382n62.8w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
Don't you get it? Only studies that support global warming are valid for global warming. That's good science.
Initialization is good... that's where the LLC appears to be:
Around 30.3N 86.5W
THE TSUNAMI WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS CANCELLED BECAUSE IT WAS
MEANT FOR THE PACIFIC AND WAS INADVERTANTLY SENT TO THE CARIBBEAN
BY MISTAKE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY HAVE
CAUSED.
lol
At least they were quick about it.
Yes, it would be Nadine. It appears to be fully over the Gulf now while still retaining its "blob" identity. There's a fair amount of convection, especially on the west side of te blob. It still looks like what we had here in Alabama over the ast three days. The low, such as it is, hasn't seemed to deepened dramatically, since it's 29.88 here in Montogmery and 29.84 from a bouy offshore. There's a weak high pressure to the north that is going to heat us up dramatically the next few days, probably forming a thermal trough over MS and AL. I have no idea what 90L will ultimately do but, since it was a big rainmaker over land, with lots of convection, it should be about the same over the Gulf. My best guess is that the blob moves east over central FL and is then absorbed in the existing trough over the east coast of FL. If the nascent low associated with the blob, which appears to be right over Pensacola, start to deepen significantly, it could be a TD at least.
This is truly a weird year. If the blob develops, how many times has an overland low ever got back in the Gulf and developed by coming straight down through MS and AL, with no other passage over water? I don't think there have been many.
Like the all-you-can-eat buffet; Take what you want and ignore the rest. Works so well in politics might as well apply it to the hard sciences, too!
DVorak Technique's margin of error is 15mb / -7mb.
The reason the error is larger on the "up" side is because the issue of kinetic energy relating to V^2 "squeezes" the margin of error for faster winds.
Seismic waves don't care which side of a peninsula the quake happened on.
There was an 8 inch Tsunami in Lake Pontchartrain from the 8.8 magnitude Chile Quake, and that's like a sixth of the way around the planet...
It's unlikely, but you could see a few feet of tsunami action on the Caribbean side in some locations. That's enough to throw boats around, or drown children near the coast.
Edit:
I see they cancelled the warning, so they obviously aren't expecting more than a few inches. So the point is moot now.
Yep, one huge subduction zone, all the way up to Washington State.
It's not stacked guys.
The mid-level circulation is still out of alignment by like 1/3rd of it's diameter.
Shear is dropping, so it will fix itself over the next 12 to 24, but the bigger issue is that the upper level environment still has a long way to go to develop a full anti-cyclone.
Gro, that model run pretty well matches my thinking. The blob will meander until it's south of the Big Bend area, then get picked up by the steering currents and go over Florida and into the Atlantic. I have no clue as to if it remains a blob or develops into something more. What's your "non-forecast"? :)
yeah, that's gonna leave a mark.
Hope nobody got/gets hurt.
7.9 initial magnitude is 22.6 times more powerful than the 7.0 Haiti Quake....
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO..
I think the NHC should be in school, and I should be at the NHC
Ship gets uncovered with almost every significant storm in the Gulf, dating back at least to Camille, 1969. I've seen it after Ivan, Gustav, Ike, Isaac. The neighborhoosd covers it back up with sand after they get tired of all the attention from visitors - parking problems, etc.
90L is making the guy in my avatar want to sing, but I'll hold him off for now.
When Ivan made the loop and re-entered the Gulf, it was still called Ivan, but it was trackable all the time, they are saying this one will not be re-named Isaac but probably Nadine. When Ivan revisited the Gulf it had a westerly track - to TX, I think.
Steering:
1000mb
990mb
It looks like 90L is going to merge with the naked LLC in the central gulf (any moment now) and will back up into the central or east-central gulf and get a head of steam worked up, before turning northeast and hitting Florida.
What the heck, it's the Gulf; I'll give it mid-level TS at least for the "landfall".
90L appears to be spinning up a "center" approximately 30 miles south of Gulf Breeze, Fl., heading south for now.
They already have, new houses there are rated to 150 mph.
"A 10,000-Year Record of Arctic Ocean Sea-Ice Variability-View from the Beach".
Big difference between a "View from the Beach" and the entire Arctic Ocean. Earth has only two poles, and one of them is in the Arctic Ocean, so that makes this larger region very important for climate in the Northern Hemisphere. A view from the beach is very local in comparison.
Viewing: 1251 - 1287
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