Disorganized Leslie headed towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center is fully exposed to view, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
A small extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic, near 26°N 42°W, (Invest 99L), is headed west at 10 mph, and has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25575
Quoting AussieStorm:


Didn't I post that image not long ago. mmmmmm

Not sure. Did you?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31608
Quoting BDADUDE:
Affirmative.

Which part. Hog Bay, Hamilton, St George?

My wife's niece used to live there. She went through Igor's passing. Sent me some very nice photo's and a video also.
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969. JLPR2
Looking lees defined tonight.

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Quoting BDADUDE:
Affirmative.


Glad to know that :)
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2150
Quoting Grothar:


Drives you crazy, doesn't it?
ya lolol it just sitting out here in se mass its been a long time since we took a direct hit plus im supose to fly out on the 11th
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Didn't I post that image not long ago. mmmmmm
Comment #892.
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Quoting stormchaser19:


YO ARE FROM bERMUDA?
Affirmative.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25575
Quoting BDADUDE:

Cantore usually comes. :(


YOU ARE FROM bERMUDA?
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2150
962. Skyepony (Mod)
Recon

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 05/1800Z FIX
MISSION INTO TROPICAL STORM LESLIE NEAR 27.0N 63.3W.
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Quoting stormchaser19:


48 ft waves!!!!!!!!this thing is going to sink Bermuda.
I hope TWC send a reporter to see what happens

Cantore usually comes. :(
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Quoting weathercrazy40:
a shift in what direction


Drives you crazy, doesn't it?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25575
Quoting AussieStorm:

ATM it looks like Nova Scotia could get Leslie going by what the latest model runs show.


I am sure keeping an eye on her. The ensemble models have Newfoundland as the more likely target, but we all know how reliable those are at this distance.
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958. Skyepony (Mod)
Cloudsat just caught Leslie. Click pic to get orination. Left side is slicing from the north edge right side is coming out the SSE side of the storm. Passes a little to the right of the COC.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


48 ft waves!!!!!!!!this thing is going to sink Bermuda.
I hope TWC send a reporter to see what happens
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2150
Quoting sunlinepr:
Looks like NHC is forecasting a 140-150 mph Hurricane.... notice the COC colors shaded in the last two purples of the scale...



I could be wrong but I think that is actually 40, the colors are so close it is hard to tell. It seem more likely though since the yellows are 20 and 30.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Well, they keep expanding the wave height area....



And the Swell

This is what I was thinking. A relentless pounding on the Jersey and Long Island shorelines for an extended time.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's a 45-50 footer....
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31608
Quoting sunlinepr:
Looks like NHC is forecasting a 140-150 mph Hurricane.... notice the COC colors shaded in the last two purples of the scale...

Quite interesting.
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Quoting lobdelse81:
Anyone have pics of Patrap's puppies? Curious to see how they look:)

He may have posted some on his blog.
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Quoting auburn:


I recon he thinks he can get back to those nice warm waters of the gulf again.
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Looks like NHC is forecasting a 140-150 mph Hurricane.... notice the COC colors shaded in the last two purples of the scale...

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Quoting beell:
If ya squint...

Aye aye, sir.
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947. auburn (Mod)
Quoting MississippiBoy:
I heard the remanents of Issac was headed south,where will he be going to?


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Quoting AussieStorm:

My thinking is models will move more west due to the High building back in.
well i know i felt the longer she sat down there more the we here in southeast mass have a chance of taking a hit
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Anyone have pics of Patrap's puppies? Curious to see how they look:)
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I heard the remanents of Issac was headed south,where will he be going to?
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Quoting weathercrazy40:
ya i now i asked for that one you think they will move east or west

My thinking is models will move more west due to the High building back in.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Tropical Depression THIRTEEN
...SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 3
Location: 25.6�N 42.2�W

I don't see it. Is it on that windsat image?
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Quoting MississippiBoy:
Where could Leslie hit the main land,any ideas?

ATM it looks like Nova Scotia could get Leslie going by what the latest model runs show.
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ULL over Bahamas looks in charge now...

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938. beell
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN
...SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 3
Location: 25.6N 42.2W
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5999
This just gives me the creeps, I'm going to be for now, since nothing's happening.

Leslie Water Vapor
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting AussieStorm:

further north, lol
ya i now i asked for that one you think they will move east or west
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Well, they keep expanding the wave height area....



And the Swell

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Where could Leslie hit the main land,any ideas?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Oye...


Which blob is TD13???
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931. beell
Quoting AussieStorm:

you can almost see nakedness.


Maybe so, Aussie, lol. Maybe a little clearing wobbling around in the CDO near 23.5N 61.8W.

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Quoting weathercrazy40:
a shift in what direction

further north, lol
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Leslie is trying to organize
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2150
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Oye...



Yeah, that's one fierce looking TD there.

Really got me shaking now.


If Leslie shared some convection with it, then TD 13 might be visible on all satellite products after that...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Oye...

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Quoting Grothar:


Expect a shift in the models in the morning.
a shift in what direction
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Quoting beell:
If ya squint...


you can almost see nakedness.
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Td 13 better be Michael.
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923. beell
If ya squint...

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Quoting Grothar:


No, just joking.

Do they have kids of their own yet?
Do they call you the wise auld one?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.