Disorganized Leslie headed towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center is fully exposed to view, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
A small extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic, near 26°N 42°W, (Invest 99L), is headed west at 10 mph, and has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Bryan Norcross did a new blog on Isaac .
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1021. beell
No love for 13?


TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE NEAR OR JUST UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RATHER LINEAR BAND OF
SHALLOW CONVECTION...SUGGESTIVE OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS ARE AT 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS AND
REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHERE THE SHEAR IS
RELATIVELY LOW. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES IS FORECAST TO
IMPINGE ON THE DEPRESSION. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY CROSS-SECTION
ANALYSES OF THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS WHICH SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX WITH HEIGHT. THE ABRUPT INCREASE
IN SHEAR SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO CAUSE WEAKENING...
ESPECIALLY FOR A SMALL SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS ONE. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...CONSERVATIVELY
SHOWING REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 3 DAYS.

SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/04. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND SHOULD TURN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND ERODES THE RIDGE FURTHER. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS
AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AFTER THAT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST HWRF MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 25.9N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 26.3N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 27.0N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 27.8N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 28.5N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 29.5N 44.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z 31.0N 44.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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1018. Patrap

00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Leslie

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

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1017. snowboy
Quoting Skyepony:
Cloudsat just caught Leslie. Click pic to get orination. Left side is slicing from the north edge right side is coming out the SSE side of the storm. Passes a little to the right of the COC.



wow - that is one way cool image!
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My forecast, the 00z WFM (Wxchaser97 Forecast Model)

Note: low impacts are mainly minor stuff(waves, rip currents, and beach erosion), moderate is a higher degree of those impacts depending in the area, high is usually TS- cat1, and extreme is cat1/2 up.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
1015. Skyepony (Mod)
Isaac remnants trying to blob up before getting to the gulf.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol, somehow I doubt the validity of that ASCAT pass.


Good call. Lot of orange (suspect) flags there.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that purple is for 40 - 50 mph...they follow the yellow color


Yes, that is a very erratic scale from NHC... For an expected 48footer...

The Beaufort Scale...

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 42.8W
ABOUT 1390 MI...2235 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES
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TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012

WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO KEEP THE STORM FROM BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. HOWEVER...A
RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING HAS
OCCURRED...AND BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THE SHEAR RELAXING SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. LATER ON...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INSISTENT THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS THE GFS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED AND
SYMMETRICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE BECOMING ESTABLISHED
OVER LESLIE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE LATEST LGEM AND SHIPS PREDICTIONS.

MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE STORM
HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE...IF AT ALL...SO THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS STATIONARY. LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUITE SLOWLY IN A
GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION WHILE IT REMAINS IN VERY WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY ABOUT 5
DAYS...THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AND AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD INDUCE A SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.

BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT WAVES GREATER THAN 12 FEET HIGH EXTEND
SOME 300-400 N MI FROM THE CENTER. DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...LARGE SWELLS
PROPAGATING AWAY FROM LESLIE WILL AFFECT BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 24.0N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 24.6N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 25.3N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 25.8N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 26.3N 63.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 27.2N 63.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 28.5N 64.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 31.0N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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1010. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012

...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...BUT NOT MOVING MUCH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


Hmm... XD
I would have preferred to see:
...But stationary...

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8656
..LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...BUT NOT MOVING MUCH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012

...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...BUT NOT MOVING MUCH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012

...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...BUT NOT MOVING MUCH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 210SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 63.1W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 63.1W
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I told you what I saw...it's the graphic fault.

Lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884
1004. LBAR
Leslie alread "waving" Hello! to the waters off the SC and GA coasts. From the Charleston, SC NWS discussion:

THE WAVE
SPECTRUM WILL BE THE COMBINATION OF SMALL SWELLS AND SHORTER
PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES...RANGING UPWARDS TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM OF
THE COAST AND UP TO 4 FT FURTHER OUT. BUOY PLATFORMS ARE STARTING
TO SHOW SOME OF THE LONGER PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE LESLIE REACHING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...WITH A 13
SECOND PERIOD AT 41008. FURTHER OUT THERE IS EVEN 15 SECOND
PERIODS AT 41002.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

40-50 mph wind gusts for a Category 2 hurricane in 120 hours?


I told you what I saw...it's the graphic fault.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
1002. 7544
evening all just in case you just tuned in

Link
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No advisory update yet?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that purple is for 40 - 50 mph...they follow the yellow color

40-50 mph wind gusts for a Category 2 hurricane in 120 hours?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884
999. JLPR2
Quoting AussieStorm:

All I see is a mess. no COC.


Likewise, that's why I'm considering the possibility of Leslie reforming under the convection. But we will have to wait for further proof before saying stuff like that.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8656
Quoting popartpete:
OMG, The Weather Channel is talking about the rarest of the rare: A major hurricane for New Jersey and New York. 191 years ago today in 1821! It reminds me of the potential of Leslie.


The did the same thing last year when it was first thought Ireme might go there. They do it with every storm that might hit NY. I think it's their way of reminding people of being too lax and not taking storms seriously, thinking it never happens to NY and the east coast.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3115
Quoting sunlinepr:
Looks like NHC is forecasting a 140-150 mph Hurricane.... notice the COC colors shaded in the last two purples of the scale...



that purple is for 40 - 50 mph...they follow the yellow color
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
UPDATE ON MEDITERRANEAN LOW....
______________________________________________
I have never done this...all Information is from METEO.IL



click for a bigger pic here
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995. beell
At least in the short term (12-18 hrs?), Leslie feeling a little tug from the trough.
(click for loop)


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Quoting Clearwater1:


re: post 949 Your graphic shows possible winds gusts 140 to 150, not sustained winds. The NHC currently predicts a cat 2 huricane. But still pretty impressive, gusts up to 150 mph. I would not want to be there.


True, thanks... will be pretty impressive.... and a nightmare for Bermuda...
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Quoting Clearwater1:


re: post 949 Your graphic shows possible winds gusts 140 to 150, not sustained winds. The NHC currently predicts a cat 2 huricane. But still pretty impressive, gusts up to 150 mph. I would not want to be there.

I would wanna be there.
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Quoting weathercrazy40:
ya lolol it just sitting out here in se mass its been a long time since we took a direct hit plus im supose to fly out on the 11th


These storms do funny things.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26000
Hurricane Isaac: Utilities Report Thousands Still In The Dark Across Louisiana And Mississippi (PHOTOS)


Link

NEW ORLEANS — Tens of thousands of customers remained in the dark Monday in Louisiana and Mississippi, nearly a week after Isaac inundated the Gulf Coast with a deluge that still has some low-lying areas under water.

Most of those were in Louisiana, where utilities reported more than 100,000 people without power. Thousands also were without power in Mississippi and Arkansas.

President Barack Obama visited Monday, a day ahead of the Democratic National Convention, and walked around storm damage in St. John the Baptist Parish, where subdivisions were soaked in water from Isaac.

"I know it's a mess," Obama said as he approached a resident in the Ridgewood neighborhood. "But we're here to help."

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney visited the state Friday.

In St. John the Baptist Parish, residents spent Labor Day dragging waterlogged carpet and furniture to the curb and using bleach and water to clean hopefully to prevent mold.

LaPlace resident Barbara Melton swept mud and debris from her home, which was at one point under 2 feet of water. The garbage, debris and standing water – combined with heat reaching the 90s – created a terrible stench.

"It's hot, it stinks, but I'm trying to get all this mud and stuff out of my house," she said.

Melton was grateful for the president's visit.

"I think it's awesome to have a president that cares and wants to come out and see what he can do," Melton, 60, said.

A few houses away, Ed Powell said Isaac was enough to make him question whether to stay.

"I know Louisiana's a gambling state, but we don't want to gamble in this method because when you lose this way, you lose a lot."

Powell said even if Obama comes up with a plan or solution to the flooding problem in his area, time is not on the residents' side.

"Even if they narrow down what the problem is and begin to resolve the problem, it usually takes years. And between now and whenever, a lot of things can happen," Powell said.

More than 2,800 people were at shelters in Louisiana, down from around 4,000. State officials were uncertain how many people would eventually need longer-term temporary housing. Kevin Davis, head of the state's emergency office, said housing would likely include hotels at first, then rental homes as close as possible to their damaged property.

Progress was evident in many places, though lingering flooding remained a problem in low-lying areas.

Crews in the town of Lafitte intentionally breached a levee Sunday night in an effort to help flooding there subside, Jefferson Parish Councilman Chris Roberts told The Times-Picayune.

Much of Plaquemines Parish, a vulnerable finger of land that juts into the Gulf of Mexico, remained under as much as 5 feet of water, Parish President Billy Nungesser said. The Category 1 hurricane walloped the parish, and for many, the damage was worse than that from Katrina in 2005.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Looks like NHC is forecasting a 140-150 mph Hurricane.... notice the COC colors shaded in the last two purples of the scale...



re: post 949 Your graphic shows possible winds gusts 140 to 150, not sustained winds. The NHC currently predicts a cat 2 huricane. But still pretty impressive, gusts up to 150 mph. I would not want to be there.
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OMG, The Weather Channel is talking about the rarest of the rare: A major hurricane for New Jersey and New York. 191 years ago today in 1821! It reminds me of the potential of Leslie.
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Quoting JLPR2:
And I'm sure this 12.5km, higher resolution ASCAT pass should make everyone go, WTH! XD

12.5km Ascending Pass

All I see is a mess. no COC.
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Quoting BDADUDE:
Outskirts of Hamilton.

I remember watching a webcam on Saint David's Island Bermuda while Igor passed close by. Kept power the whole time.

My wife's niece told us her apartment was rated to withstand 150mph winds. Her friends house was an older style house and is only rated to 120mph. That same friend had a huge branch crash through the front door all thanks to Igor.
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985. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol, somehow I doubt the validity of that ASCAT pass.


We can always hope OSCAT catches it a little later.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8656
Quoting Grothar:


What a guy!
Woof!
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Quoting JLPR2:
And I'm sure this 12.5km, higher resolution ASCAT pass should make everyone go, WTH! XD

12.5km Ascending Pass

Lol, somehow I doubt the validity of that ASCAT pass.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31884
982. JLPR2
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thanks for that because I thought the center was in the middle of the convection from the image Grothar posted.


Considering how it looks right now, it seems Leslie might be in the process of making itself a new LLC.
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980. JLPR2
And I'm sure this 12.5km, higher resolution ASCAT pass should make everyone go, WTH! XD

12.5km Ascending Pass
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8656
Quoting lobdelse81:
Anyone have pics of Patrap's puppies? Curious to see how they look:)
I heard one was to be called "off-topic" if that helps. All cute, especially Mom.
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Quoting stormchaser19:


48 ft waves!!!!!!!!this thing is going to sink Bermuda.
I hope TWC send a reporter to see what happens


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977. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh ASCAT. Leslie is an exploding mess.. Elongating, maybe relocating.

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Quoting AussieStorm:

Which part. Hog Bay, Hamilton, St George?

My wife's niece used to live there. She went through Igor's passing. Sent me some very nice photo's and a video also.
Outskirts of Hamilton.
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Quoting cyberian:


I could be wrong but I think that is actually 40, the colors are so close it is hard to tell. It seem more likely though since the yellows are 20 and 30.


Yeap, the colors scale of the NHC are confusing but ..... would be very dificult to see a 40 mph storm delivering a 48 footer swell...
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Quoting JLPR2:
Looking lees defined tonight.

Thanks for that because I thought the center was in the middle of the convection from the image Grothar posted.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not sure. Did you?

Comment #892.

ECMWF 192hrs...


HWRF 111hrs. Look in Leslie, I see Bermuda... ouch



40-45ft significant wave height.


Also note how Leslie's waves effect most of the N ATL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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