Disorganized Leslie headed towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center is fully exposed to view, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
A small extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic, near 26°N 42°W, (Invest 99L), is headed west at 10 mph, and has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KoritheMan:
Also, since when was TomTaylor banned? Went to his blog just now for the weather links and saw it.


Apparently he posted a meme in the previous blog topic that didn't go over smoothly with the admin.
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It's not completely unheard of for a system to regenerate in this manner. Tropical Depression Five tried it in 2010. So did Ivan the Terrible. It's rare, but not unpredecented.
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1070. VR46L
I was aware its Isaacs Ghost just didnt want to say it ...:(
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Also, since when was TomTaylor banned? Went to his blog just now for the weather links and saw it.
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Quoting VR46L:
I understand that this blob making its way to the gulf is mooted by both the GFS and Euro to have some development.. as if they havent had enough last week ..





Seems Isaac is determined to break my wallet completely. Heh.
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Quoting VR46L:
I understand that this blob making its way to the gulf is mooted by both the GFS and Euro to have some development.. as if they havent had enough last week ..




Another thing...that blob is Isaac.
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the euro seems like it wants isaac to revisit the gulf coast. i'm sure myself and florida have had enough of him
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1065. VR46L
I understand that this blob making its way to the gulf is mooted by both the GFS and Euro to have some development.. as if they havent had enough last week ..



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Perhaps Leslie has found a new dance partner .... ....



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The Canadian model is showing a 1000 mb. low over Tampa Bay:

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1062. sar2401
Quoting bappit:

NOAA splits responsibilities between the NHC and local NWS offices. I don't think a single point of contact for the media can work for all areas. If you are running a local show, then sure a single point of contact would be good.


When it's a big hurricane, most of the media looks to the NHC, not the local NWS, for information. In addition, an NHC PIO can help coordinate the message with the local NWS offices. When no one is in charge, that means no one is in charge.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
By gee by gingo by crikey, we've got storms coming out of our Azores high looking at some of the long term models.
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1060. bappit
Quoting sar2401:

Norcross got it mostly right but he missed one big piece of the puzzle that's always been missing. The NHC need a Public Information Officer (PIO). That's not the person that's the head of the NHC, or even a lead forecaster. It has to be someone like Norcross, that understands weather, the media, and how to distill all the NHC gibberish into a three minute update for the media. The NHC has no single point of contact, and that means the media has to figure it out on their own. That's when everything gets mangled. In all my years of emergency management, my PIO was one of the most important members of the command staff. In any major incident, he or she was the only person allowed to talk to the media, including me, when I was the incident commander. He or she would get briefed on the incident and then do a press release that highlighted the important things for citizens to know. The PIO was good at appearing on TV and being able to explain, calmly but forcefully, what were the main points of action we expected from citizens. The Incident Command System evolved over decades of screwing up on major disasters. It works when it's used right. I've never seen any evidence that the NHC even understands ICS or sees the value of a PIO.

NOAA splits responsibilities between the NHC and local NWS offices. I don't think a single point of contact for the media can work for all areas. If you are running a local show, then sure a single point of contact would be good.
Quoting guygee:
Wrong rant. I am a lot more disappointed that we rely on Indian and European satellites for accurate ocean wind vectors, and we are waiting on a Japanese satellite to regain high-resolution observation of polar ice and snowpack. The US is really falling behind in weather and earth observation platforms, and we need proponents in the media like Norcross to help lobby the pols and rally the public to the cause.

If Norcross wants to post about some other topic--like weather satellites--he has plenty of time to do it.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:




ummmm,,,



Only to Die off in the Atlantic.... Well I will say 2 out of the 4 will die off.... and out of those two 1 will be a Major Hurricane and the other will go out to sea as a possible cat1.... Just Saying :o)

Taco :o)
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Just a post to say that you should never take any tropical system for granted. Look at what we have experienced here in Louisiana. We will be dealing with the effects of hurricane Isaac for months. Everybody gets hung up on wind speeds, but with Isaac, it's size and surge along with several days of flooding rains has turned southeastern Louisiana into a mess. Thankfully, we have the LSU Tigers, UL Rajin Cajuns, and the Saints playing football now to take it all off our minds at least on the weekends!!!!!
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1057. sar2401
Quoting waterskiman:

Obama missed the chair.

Romney..... been there done that


Sorry, but these politicians should stay out of active disaster areas. Every time we had one of these goofballs show up, all work had to stop for a day while the Secret Service investigated us and threw out all the real workers. They add nothing to solving the problem, and actually make things work. Sign some declarations somewhere, even hold up a giant check for a photo op, but stay out of my declared disaster area.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
1056. guygee
Quoting bappit:

Norcross: "Everybody's a meteorologist today, they look at the models, slice and dice the uncertainty, and the message from the National Hurricane Center gets mangled beyond recognition."

Also: "And... the media has to man up. All of it. Everybody. Hurricane Warnings, storm-surge forecasts, the ability of large circulations to move a lot of water, the entire discussion has to be had over and over in a situation like this. No quick hits, no hitting high points, and no trivializing chatter about the models."
Wrong rant. I am a lot more disappointed that we rely on Indian and European satellites for accurate ocean wind vectors, and we are waiting on a Japanese satellite to regain high-resolution observation of polar ice and snowpack. The US is really falling behind in weather and earth observation platforms, and we need proponents in the media like Norcross to help lobby the pols and rally the public to the cause.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
Quoting Funication:
Where they all going?




ummmm,,,


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Quoting JLPR2:


Very weak steering, in fact, it seems a high pressure is building to the NW of Leslie.
I believe you are correct.

Every night she goes out on the town for a little fun, works up a sweat, then heads home alone.

Perhaps she's looking for someone to spend the night with, besides that ULL.



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1053. sar2401
Quoting seafarer459:

Political correctness in the digital age. Probably thinks your a lousy speller too.


The strange part is that wasn't censored in the quote of that post. I guess the PC algorithm didn't take that into account. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
1052. 7544
join the cho cho conga line this run m,n,o,p ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6862
1051. sar2401
Quoting bappit:

Norcross: "Everybody's a meteorologist today, they look at the models, slice and dice the uncertainty, and the message from the National Hurricane Center gets mangled beyond recognition."

Also: "And... the media has to man up. All of it. Everybody. Hurricane Warnings, storm-surge forecasts, the ability of large circulations to move a lot of water, the entire discussion has to be had over and over in a situation like this. No quick hits, no hitting high points, and no trivializing chatter about the models."

Norcross got it mostly right but he missed one big piece of the puzzle that's always been missing. The NHC need a Public Information Officer (PIO). That's not the person that's the head of the NHC, or even a lead forecaster. It has to be someone like Norcross, that understands weather, the media, and how to distill all the NHC gibberish into a three minute update for the media. The NHC has no single point of contact, and that means the media has to figure it out on their own. That's when everything gets mangled. In all my years of emergency management, my PIO was one of the most important members of the command staff. In any major incident, he or she was the only person allowed to talk to the media, including me, when I was the incident commander. He or she would get briefed on the incident and then do a press release that highlighted the important things for citizens to know. The PIO was good at appearing on TV and being able to explain, calmly but forcefully, what were the main points of action we expected from citizens. The Incident Command System evolved over decades of screwing up on major disasters. It works when it's used right. I've never seen any evidence that the NHC even understands ICS or sees the value of a PIO.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


How awful to have the name of a country censored. It's located N of Nigeria, between Chad and Mali.


Veering off topic, I know, but when I saw a geopolitical map of Northern Africa as a kid, I thought the name of the country was pronounced in the hateful way. I asked my mom about it. But really, to censor the name because of that similarity. Some people need to grow up I guess.

I agree with the poster who stated that Leslie appears to be NE-bound at the moment.
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1049. msphar
Leslie's gonna wear that patch of water out pretty soon unless she gets her mojo in gear and moves a bit.
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Quoting SubtropicalHi:


How awful to have the name of a country censored. It's located N of Nigeria, between Chad and Mali.

Political correctness in the digital age. Probably thinks your a lousy speller too.
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1047. sar2401
Quoting auburn:
NOAA stab at humor..and not bad!!


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

KIRK IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIVE LONG AND PROSPER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES AND A 1214 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS
A CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT IT IS BECOMING ELONGATED. MAXIMUM
RELIABLE WINDS IN THE ASCAT PASS WERE AROUND 45 KT SO THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. KIRK WILL LIKELY BECOME
POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 200 N MI TO ITS WEST.

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT KIRK HAS
BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING A VERY FAST 035/32. AN EVEN
FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE FRONT TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 46.2N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 51.1N 30.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

NNNN


LOL. That was posted here about 14 microseconds after it hit the NHC website this morning. Lots of weather geeks are apparently also Trekkies. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
1046. sar2401
Quoting Patrap:
Birmingham
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50%uFFFD Elevation
Range
248 NMI


We've been getting hamered all day long here in central AL. Looks like typical rainbands being spun off from a tropical storm...except there isn't anything around except the remnants of Isaac. We've had over two inches of rain today, compared to .16 inches when Isaac was a hurricane 200 miles from us. I don't usually agree with models that want to do weird things, but I really think the ghost of Isaac is up to something.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
1045. bappit
Quoting GTcooliebai:
108 hrs. shift west by about 2 degrees:


That's less than the average forecast error out that far so it does not seem like a lot to me--not that a model constitutes a forecast.
Link
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108 hrs. shift west by about 2 degrees:

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1043. bappit
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


As for Leslie, is it just me, or is she looking really imposing tonight?!

Lots of green on the Funktop image.
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Quoting psetas23:
has anyone seen the 18 model gfs run for 16 days from now or 384 look out florida


Would you mind posting a link? Thank you.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


The did the same thing last year when it was first thought Ireme might go there. They do it with every storm that might hit NY. I think it's their way of reminding people of being too lax and not taking storms seriously, thinking it never happens to NY and the east coast.


How true. The 1821 storm hit NC first, then barreled up the Eastern Seaboard. Wiki mentions another even more powerful 'cane that hit the region some 800-1000 years ago. Amazing that an individual hurricane can be known about from that long ago.

The entry also mentions Irene as one of four known tropical cyclones to directly hit NYC. The highest sustained winds in NYC from Irene were 32 mph (at the Central Park station according to Wundergound).

As for Leslie, is it just me, or is she looking really imposing tonight?!
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Quoting SubtropicalHi:


I wondered how the blobs are affecting Africa.


@#!*% has worst floods for 100 years. Thu, 30 Aug ... Reports say it is the worst flooding seen for nearly 100 years in the West African country


The URL didn't work for this article. I copied the stub from Google.





How awful to have the name of a country censored. It's located N of Nigeria, between Chad and Mali.
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GFS 78 hrs.

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Quoting Funication:
Where they all going?


I wondered how the blobs are affecting Africa.


Niger has worst floods for 100 years. Thu, 30 Aug ... Reports say it is the worst flooding seen for nearly 100 years in the West African country


The URL didn't work for this article. I copied the stub from Google.



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1037. auburn (Mod)
NOAA stab at humor..and not bad!!


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

KIRK IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIVE LONG AND PROSPER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES AND A 1214 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS
A CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT IT IS BECOMING ELONGATED. MAXIMUM
RELIABLE WINDS IN THE ASCAT PASS WERE AROUND 45 KT SO THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. KIRK WILL LIKELY BECOME
POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 200 N MI TO ITS WEST.

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT KIRK HAS
BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING A VERY FAST 035/32. AN EVEN
FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE FRONT TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 46.2N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 51.1N 30.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

NNNN
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1036. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


new ice formation with some scattered areas of slight snow cover returning
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has anyone seen the 18 model gfs run for 16 days from now or 384 look out florida
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1034. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Funication:
Where they all going?



forward
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1033. bappit
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Bryan Norcross did a new blog on Isaac .

Norcross: "Everybody's a meteorologist today, they look at the models, slice and dice the uncertainty, and the message from the National Hurricane Center gets mangled beyond recognition."

Also: "And... the media has to man up. All of it. Everybody. Hurricane Warnings, storm-surge forecasts, the ability of large circulations to move a lot of water, the entire discussion has to be had over and over in a situation like this. No quick hits, no hitting high points, and no trivializing chatter about the models."
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Where they all going?
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Quoting Felix2007:
Blog moving at the pace of a snail.

That's still faster than Leslie is moving.
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1030. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Felix2007:
Blog moving at the pace of a snail.
naw its just a time shift from no school too school in about OOO 19 mins from now
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Blog moving at the pace of a snail.
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Just did a blog on Leslie and TD13.
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1027. JLPR2
Even though it shows a mess of a LLC, winds look much stronger.

older pass:


current one:
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
1026. Patrap
Birmingham
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50 Elevation
Range
248 NMI

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GFS draws Leslie as a big Cane...



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1024. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


the convection appears to be shifting ne
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Bryan Norcross did a new blog on Isaac .
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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