Disorganized Leslie headed towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center is fully exposed to view, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
A small extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic, near 26°N 42°W, (Invest 99L), is headed west at 10 mph, and has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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You know, I filmed about 4 hours of high definition on the 29th, and I really only got about ten to fifteen minutes that was worth putting on Youtube.


In fact, I regretted using too much of my memory, because I wasn't able to film the record flooding during the next day, because without power I couldn't upload my videos and empty the SD card to start filming again.

I can only hope that someone else down the street filmed the record flooding on Yellow Water Creek so that the appropriate authorities will have good records to examine the drainage and potential levee situation.


Something will need to be done on the north and north west shores of Lake Maurepas, because this amount of storm surge from a category 1 is unacceptable.


Anyway, my point here is gettng good coverage of what's "happening" in a storm is nearly impossible. While trying to film, I quickly discovered that by the time you realize something is happening worth filming, with regards to wind, rain, or debris/damage, it's too late to catch it, because it happens that fast and it's already over.

You basically need multiple cameras running non-stop pointing in at least 2 or 3 directions to catch that sort of stuff consistently.

And if you want to catch levee breaches or important structural damage, tough luck. I found out first hand driving in the thing is stupid, even with only TS force winds, because I got two flat tires from hitting sign debris I couldn't see until it was like 10 feet in front of me.
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1121. ncstorm
Quoting RTSplayer:


Why don't you quit with that idiocy.

You just faulted them for no reason, and you obviously haven't even watched a recent Tropical Weather Update, else you wouldn't use the word "probably".



If they did something wrong or unprofessional, critique them on that, but you don't even know whether they did or did not do something, and you bashed them anyway.

It's gotten completely ridiculous and distasteful the way TWC gets bashed on this blog, even before the merger, now that they merged, it's just hypocritical anyway.


no one is bashing TWC..I just stated what GMA said this morning..I dont know why people want to argue early in the morning..LOL..why dont you go back to bed and try it all over again..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
If we were to get Michael at 11, how far would his winds go out if 13 stays the same size?

It can't be that far out as TD13 isn't that big. I just read the 5:00am discussion, I think today could be the day its named.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
If we were to get Michael at 11, how far would his winds go out if 13 stays the same size?
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Quoting GTcooliebai:


Here is 13, getting convection to fire over the circulation:



By the way have a great first day in school.

Yup, thats what I mean that convection is firing more over the center. Also the TD is getting bigger and should be a TS in the next 24-48hrs if this continues. Thanks, I have a great schedule and this should be a great sophomore year.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting MahFL:


It was not a merger, TWC Companies bought WU. Also it's not hypocritical to bash TWC if they are still spouting crap. I saw re-run after re-run of Jim Cantore in the height of the storm when they should have had live coverage of what was occuring.


Wait, what exactly do you expect?

Was Jim Cantore supposed to get up and drive to Plaquemines and film the levee breaching in 80mph official sustained winds; probably more like 90 to 95mph unofficially?! Maybe you think he should have drove to Houma and rode out the eye wall for about 24 hours or so. He and his crew nearly got killed in Katrina because they were too close to the action, but I guess that doesn't matter to some people. They have mandatory evacuations for a reason.


Although the media CAN be faulted for having absolutely no post-storm coverage of whatever happened in the area around Houma, because I've still yet to see any of it, but TWC is no more guilty than anyone else.

Heck, not even the local channels are saying anything...Maybe nobody cares unless you live in NOLA or Biloxi or within 15 miles of those cities.

Sad.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Good morning everyone, TD13 is getting better organized and Leslie is as well. Also today is my first day back at school.


Here is 13, getting convection to fire over the circulation:



By the way have a great first day in school.
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1114. K8eCane
Quoting flcanes:

?


i dont understand your question.
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Well, I have to leave for school, kids and classroom waiting for me. As to TWC, my personal feeling is they should say it is trending west so that people in the northeast don't just dismiss Leslie. They don't tend to keep a watch for hurricanes the way we do in the south.

Everyone have a great Tuesday.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
1112. WxLogic
Quoting MahFL:
Isaac's remains are growing and heading SSE to the GOM.....plays JAWS soundtrack..........


Should be interesting... even the NAM has a new SFC low developing in the GOM.
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1111. flcanes
Quoting K8eCane:


ok thanks! i cant access them too well on this Wii

?
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1110. K8eCane
Quoting wxchaser97:

Models have shifted west, but not by a lot.


ok thanks! i cant access them too well on this Wii
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1109. MahFL
Isaac's remains are growing and heading SSE to the GOM.....plays JAWS soundtrack..........
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3850
1108. WxLogic
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'mornin. Blog as dysfucntional as ever! Kinda like our 'cane season so far!


Morning... I guess you can say that. LOL.
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Quoting K8eCane:
are the models trending west as Good Morning America said?

Models have shifted west, but not by a lot.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
G'mornin. Blog as dysfucntional as ever! Kinda like our 'cane season so far!
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1105. K8eCane
are the models trending west as Good Morning America said?
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1104. MahFL
Quoting RTSplayer:


Why don't you quit with that idiocy.

You just faulted them for no reason, and you obviously haven't even watched a recent Tropical Weather Update, else you wouldn't use the word "probably".



If they did something wrong or unprofessional, critique them on that, but you don't even know whether they did or did not do something, and you bashed them anyway.

It's gotten completely ridiculous and distasteful the way TWC gets bashed on this blog, even before the merger, now that they merged, it's just hypocritical anyway.


It was not a merger, TWC Companies bought WU. Also it's not hypocritical to bash TWC if they are still spouting crap. I saw re-run after re-run of Jim Cantore in the height of the storm when they should have had live coverage of what was occuring.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3850
Good morning everyone, TD13 is getting better organized and Leslie is as well. Also today is my first day back at school.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting RTSplayer:


Why don't you quit with that idiocy.

You just faulted them for no reason, and you obviously haven't even watched a recent Tropical Weather Update, else you wouldn't use the word "probably".



If they did something wrong or unprofessional, critique them on that, but you don't even know whether they did or did not do something, and you bashed them anyway.

It's gotten completely ridiculous and distasteful the way TWC gets bashed on this blog, even before the merger, now that they merged, it's just hypocritical anyway.


Whoa! ncstorm was responding to what I was saying and I did watch and am still watching TWC. It was not a bashing, just a simple statement of facts!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
1101. WxLogic
Good Morning... we got TD#13 soon to be a TS.
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Quoting ncstorm:


I am watching Good Morning America and they said Leslie model runs are trending west..sounds quite opposite of what TWC is probably saying


Why don't you quit with that idiocy.

You just faulted them for no reason, and you obviously haven't even watched a recent Tropical Weather Update, else you wouldn't use the word "probably".



If they did something wrong or unprofessional, critique them on that, but you don't even know whether they did or did not do something, and you bashed them anyway.

It's gotten completely ridiculous and distasteful the way TWC gets bashed on this blog, even before the merger, now that they merged, it's just hypocritical anyway.
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1099. ncstorm
Quoting aislinnpaps:
I always find it interesting when TWC says it doesn't see Leslie as a threat yet to the US, but shows a cone that says they don't know where she is going to go and part of the cone shows US, and don't mention the models that show a possible to US. I know they want to show only when it will hit the US, but...

Edit: they put it such a way that Leslie won't be hitting the US at all.


I am watching Good Morning America and they said Leslie model runs are trending west..sounds quite opposite of what TWC is probably saying
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting sunlinepr:
GFS draws Leslie as a big Cane...




SURF UP!!
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Good Morning...One of the ensemble members still shows the BOC disturbance:

228 hrs.



3 days later landfall in Southern Texas:

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I always find it interesting when TWC says it doesn't see Leslie as a threat yet to the US, but shows a cone that says they don't know where she is going to go and part of the cone shows US, and don't mention the models that show a possible to US. I know they want to show only when it will hit the US, but...

Edit: they put it such a way that Leslie won't be hitting the US at all.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
Good morning. I see models converging on a CV development in comming days and move it west as GFS does and Euro more WNW.
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Morning.
I see Isaac doesn't want to die.
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1093. pottery
Trinidad weather...

Temp 79
Humidity 89
Thunderstorm.......

Woke up to Rumbles and Grumbles at 5:30.
Seems to be quieting down now, but still as a tomb and no rain on me yet.
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Vostok is at -94f with a forecast low of -105f for Thursday.

Wow. 200f difference between us and them.

126f below freezing.

Even AGW won't melt that ice any time soon.
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Look at this forecast.

Today
97 °F
Chance of a Thunderstorm
20% chance of precipitation
Tonight
75 °F
Chance of T-storms
30% chance of precipitation
Tomorrow
100 | 77 °F
Chance of T-storms
40% chance of precipitation
Thursday
95 | 75 °F
Chance of a Thunderstorm
20% chance of precipitation
Friday
95 | 75 °F
Partly Cloudy
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, all. 77 degrees here is west central Louisiana with a humidity of 94% and a dewpoint of 75. I put the dogs out and it felt like it should be pouring but not a drop to be felt.


77 with a dewpoint of 77 overcast, clouds 500ft...
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Good morning, all. 77 degrees here is west central Louisiana with a humidity of 94% and a dewpoint of 75. I put the dogs out and it felt like it should be pouring but not a drop to be felt.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The Canadian model is showing a 1000 mb. low over Tampa Bay:



By the time you adjust for the initialization error of the GFS, it does the same.


One wonders how the GFS is doing so well this year on track, in spite of being terrible at initializing the correct pressure values for storms. I thought track and intensity were supposed to be closely related...
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Quoting LostTomorrows:


Apparently he posted a meme in the previous blog topic that didn't go over smoothly with the admin.
It was the meme plus the swearing, I think.

Morning everybody... I'm watching this ULL today, and hoping it does its job with Leslie...
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Just as I suspected.

The trough has lifted, and the Bermuda high is building back in.

Now it's a waiting game, and eastern seaboard better watch closely too.


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Approach Intensity

Model raw / adjusted

00z Euro 927mb / 918mb
00z GFDL 952mb / 947mb
00z HWRF 959mb / 958mb
00z GFS 972mb / 962mb


avg raw: 952mb
avg adj: 946mb


Without Euro:

Avg raw: 961mb
Avg adj: 956mb


terrible inconsistency.
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1084. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
1083. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
1082. LargoFl
Good morning folks...............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
1081. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
1080. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
1079. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
1078. LargoFl
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The Canadian model is showing a 1000 mb. low over Tampa Bay:

morning GT..are we in for it this week?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
1077. LargoFl
Quoting HondosGirl:
Isaac remnant blob just woke me up here in NWFL. Very heavy rain with light thunder. Much heavier rain than when the kids were out of school last week for the storm!
good morning,, I guess isaac is going back into the gulf again..gee
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Isaac remnant blob just woke me up here in NWFL. Very heavy rain with light thunder. Much heavier rain than when the kids were out of school last week for the storm!
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Quoting KoritheMan:
It's not completely unheard of for a system to regenerate in this manner. Tropical Depression Five tried it in 2010. So did Ivan the Terrible. It's rare, but not unpredecented.


Ivan was beyond bizarre considering it exited into the Atlantic, went south and then back west into the Gulf. That was a great advisory to read, though.
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Quoting LostTomorrows:


Apparently he posted a meme in the previous blog topic that didn't go over smoothly with the admin.


Ah, gotcha. How unfortunate, but it is what it is.
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Doesn't look like the models want the first trough -- the one over the central US -- to lift it out. Instead it has to wait for a second trough developing over the Pacific northwest to find a means of escape. What happens after the first trough misses it is important. Kinda looks like a Debby setup to me, where it either finds a weakness into Florida, or finds a ridge into the northern Gulf Coast. Another factor is the upper low over the Bahamas. If ex-Isaac becomes deep enough in the vertical to feel the influence of this low, it could act to turn it to the southwest. None of the models are indicating this at the current time, but one must always be aware of these things.

Overall, looking at the models and water vapor/satellite, shear won't be a problem. Dry air will be though. Not an ideal environment for a tropical cyclone, but certainly not the worst I've seen.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Also, since when was TomTaylor banned? Went to his blog just now for the weather links and saw it.


Apparently he posted a meme in the previous blog topic that didn't go over smoothly with the admin.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 617

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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