Disorganized Leslie headed towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center is fully exposed to view, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
A small extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic, near 26°N 42°W, (Invest 99L), is headed west at 10 mph, and has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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The people that think the National Hurricane Center names cyclones just to pad their numbers are...not intelligent. Enough said.
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looks like 99l will form into tropical thunderstorm michael soo
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99L kind of looks like Kirk when he started out.
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Actually, if the tropical season ended today, it would have been a pretty decent season: Made it to "L" and there have been two very interesting storms to follow: Ernesto and Isaac. At the same time, no horrible disasters (though Isaac is bad enough, for sure).

As it is, we are just entering the peak 4 weeks of the season.
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Quoting ncstorm:
12Z CMC gets awful close to the CONUS





Next thing you know It'll have her over NYC!.Doom! lol.
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12Z CMC gets awful close to the CONUS





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14 PensacolaDoug: ...Presslord in a dress was 1st posted by Presslord several years ago...something to do with a fund raiser for PORTLIGHT...no one was offended and it was never removed, until today

On the contrary several regulars were temp-banned, and at least one was perma-banned cuz he refused to stop posting it.
There's a fine line between being overly repetitive with a humorous pic and deliberate trolling.
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But-but....Micheal Jackson was a legend :(...
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The contrast in size between these two is amazing. 99L looks better organized than Leslie.
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YYUUUPPP
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I'll be a little happier when I see the COC on Leslie turn off her left blinker and decide to go due north away from east coast....sorry Bermuda.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

*cough* Post #104 *cough*

Exactly.
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Quoting Walshy:
Absolutely pathetic...think they want to stat pad the season a little.

It's small, yes, but it has a decent little structure, with tiny banding features and everything. Most adorable storm ever. Better than Jose...
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Quoting Walshy:
Absolutely pathetic...think they want to stat pad the season a little.

A tropical cyclone, is a Tropical cyclone. Where-ever it maybe, how small or how large. It doesn't matter. They did the same thing with many storms in 2011... They're just taking advantage of the satellite era.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It looks like Marco & Jose's long lost brother...

When(if) it gets named, a lot of bloggers are going to scream "THAT IS NOT A TS!!!!1!!","OMG NUMBER INFLATION!!1!!!", "WHY IS THE NHC NAMING A THUNDERSTORM?!?!!?!11?!?!", and so on.

It's going to be the most adorable storm ever.

*cough* Post #104 *cough*
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I think 99L looks better than Leslie
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Was not expecting that at all.

It does look nice though.


It looks like Marco & Jose's long lost brother...

When(if) it gets named, a lot of bloggers are going to scream "THAT IS NOT A TS!!!!1!!","OMG NUMBER INFLATION!!1!!!", "WHY IS THE NHC NAMING A THUNDERSTORM?!?!!?!11?!?!", and so on.

It's going to be the most adorable storm ever.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Was not expecting that at all.

It does look nice though.


Cute little Michael.
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Absolutely pathetic...think they want to stat pad the season a little.
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99L looks like a beating heart of a new born child.
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CHRIS GRAYTHEN / GETTY IMAGES

Isaac has claimed at least two dozen lives in Haiti alone, and made landfall in New Orleans as a category 1 hurricane. Its arrival falls on the seventh anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128648
Hurricane Isaac

Steve Dawson bails water out of his mother-in-law's flooded home after Hurricane Isaac hit La Place, La., Aug. 31, 2012

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128648
Quoting wxmod:


That could happen right now in some places. The reason pine forests don't grow in Greenland anymore is that people like to burn them to stay warm. Besides, the so called "pine forests" were just a few inches in diameter and grew extremely slowly.


We lived in Greenland for sometime and I don't ever recall cutting down one tree to stay warm. We just went to the nearest Marriott and we did just fine.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Aren't you guys forgetting something?


1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
NEAR A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.


Was not expecting that at all.

It does look nice though.

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Quoting sar2401:


Maybe. It was in the tenth century, when there were pine forests and crops like barley and wheat were able to be grown there.
Not really; the inhospitable island was named "Greenland" in order to attract farmers from the Motherland. Those farmers came, and they tried to do their jobs. But nothing would grow there in a sustainable way, so they gave up after a relatively short time and sailed off to other places. There was never anything like vast forests or lush fields full of ripening crops; those early settlers didn't leave because Greenland turned bad, but because it was bad to begin with...
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Quoting hydrus:
Long way out, but it shows the pattern shift.
What pattern shift?
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Quoting stormchaser19:


The system who is entering in the GMO i think is the wave is coming of africa in the next days
Long way out, but it shows the pattern shift.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Last night Barbamz was calling it a medicane. I'm pretty sure I just spelled Barbamz's name wrong, sorry.



You spelled it right. However, the lastest report does not think it will be as strong as they thought yesterday, but still a strong system. They do not expect it to become subtropical at this time.


Here is the link barbamz provided me.


Link
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Aren't you guys forgetting something?


1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
NEAR A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

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Quoting Patrap:


Bad enough,,instead of a 9 Hour Come and go Uppercut like K was, Isaac was more a 15 Round slug fest with a East wind for over 24 Hours.

I 'm uploading some B-roll now to post here in a few.
We went 15 hours with Jeanne, and was wore out by the time she finished with us...Not fun riding out the cane with the blue roof. Looking forward to the roll.
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Quoting Melagoo:
... another erratic storm go figure ... I wonder how fast Leslie will develop when the shear minimizes?
The storms and the way they've been forming/behaving this year makes me unenthusiastic to look forward to next hurricane season.....
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Quoting sar2401:


Yes, Captain, we hardly knew ye....

Did anyone else notice in the 11 PM discussion of Leslie that the NHC officially used the word "blob"? I don't know if Grothar gave them a license for the word, but "blob" is now an official meteorological term. :)


No I didn't. I am looking into it! I don't mind them using my tracks to determine where a system is really going, but blob determination should stay on this blog. From now on, I'm not telling them anything. They are on their own. :)
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... another erratic storm go figure ... I wonder how fast Leslie will develop when the shear minimizes?
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Nice pups, Pat.

Good job, Nola!
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Quoting hydrus:
How bad was Isaac in your area Pat.?..Good to see you posting the pups.


Bad enough,,instead of a 9 Hour Come and go Uppercut like K was, Isaac was more a 15 Round slug fest with a East wind for over 24 Hours.

I 'm uploading some B-roll now to post here in a few.
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Quoting hydrus:
Anyone see this.? Its worth a look...GFS..Link


Thanks for the link. 965 parked over Bermuda. Put away the golf clubs for a while!
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Quoting Gearsts:
But they were moving faster, a huge system like Leslie will feel it more because Heat content is really low the more north she moves.
Not to mention the were small in size.
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Quoting Slamguitar:


What is that in the western Mediterranean?? Subtropical? It was cutoff a few days ago.


Last night Barbamz was calling it a medicane. I'm pretty sure I just spelled Barbamz's name wrong, sorry.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ocean Heat Content is severely overrated on this blog. You realize Gordon and Kirk nearly became major hurricanes under 0 OHC, right?
But they were moving faster, a huge system like Leslie will feel it more because Heat content is really low the more north she moves.
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Leslie
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Quoting wxmod:


That could happen right now in some places. The reason pine forests don't grow in Greenland anymore is that people like to burn them to stay warm. Besides, the so called "pine forests" were just a few inches in diameter and grew extremely slowly.

true dat
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Quoting hydrus:
Anyone see this.? Its worth a look...GFS..Link


The system who is entering in the GMO i think is the wave is coming of africa in the next days
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What is that in the western Mediterranean?? Subtropical? It was cutoff a few days ago.
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Quoting Carnoustie:


remnenets of Kirk are forecast to hit us here in Scotland over the next few days,60mph+ storm force winds.


Its Leslie that has me concerned for that part of the world .. It looks like she could still be an ex hurricane as she travels east not too keen on the long term forecast for her
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Quoting sar2401:


Maybe. It was in the tenth century, when there were pine forests and crops like barley and wheat were able to be grown there.


That could happen right now in some places. The reason pine forests don't grow in Greenland anymore is that people like to burn them to stay warm. Besides, the so called "pine forests" were just a few inches in diameter and grew extremely slowly.
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Quoting Patrap:


A File Image, but a good one.

We got power Back round 4pm Saturday here Uptown.

Nola Roux and the "Pup's" delivered during the Hurricane.



How bad was Isaac in your area Pat.?..Good to see you posting the pups.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ocean Heat Content is severely overrated on this blog. You realize Gordon and Kirk nearly became major hurricanes under 0 OHC, right?


I agree, oceanic heat content is aplenty in the MDR during the peak months of hurricane season (there are sometimes exceptions of course). Several other factors must also line-up nearly perfectly to get a major cyclone.

One of the main points I have learned as an amateur storm/hurricane tracker for the last 17 years, water temperatures (and the Gulf Stream, etc.) are over-rated.
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Anyone see this.? Its worth a look...GFS..Link
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Pat,
BigWes was on last night, had just got his power back on, was asking after you and if Nola Roux had had her pups.

those pups are so cute
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Quoting sar2401:


Maybe. It was in the tenth century, when there were pine forests and crops like barley and wheat were able to be grown there.

yeah
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Pat,
BigWes was on last night, had just got his power back on, was asking after you and if Nola Roux had had her pups.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.