Disorganized Leslie headed towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center is fully exposed to view, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
A small extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic, near 26°N 42°W, (Invest 99L), is headed west at 10 mph, and has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ncstorm:
notice the center in the frames--it looks the storm will go west for a while..how close it gets before turning away is the question..that is one HUGE storm..



Although that is the Wave height forecasted graph...

The Wind Gust graph is

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Does anyone posting the 12z Euro?
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Lol.If agencies were padding there numbers then we wouldn't be on storm 12.Because a lot of them had forecast a season with only 12-15 named storms.We would be on storm 3 or 4 by now.Lol.
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Quoting ncstorm:
notice the center in the frames--it looks the storm will go west for a while..how close it gets before turning away is the question..that is one HUGE storm..







anular maybe?
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The Atlantic's ACE is currently ~49.86.
A normal year has an average of 37 to date.
Here's a site that shows the current Global ACE.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Are you under the impression that they get paid by the cyclone? Maybe $500 apiece for a TD? $1,000 for a TD? $2,000 for a TS? $3,000 for a hurricane? $5,000 for a major? Yeah, that must be it!

I would think that keeping the numbers lower so they'd agree with their pre-season predictions would make them look better. Those NHC idiots with all their education and degrees and decades of experience; what ever are they thinking? :-\


No.

I think they just pad stats to make it look like a busy hurricane season.
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notice the center in the frames--it looks the storm will go west for a while..how close it gets before turning away is the question..that is one HUGE storm..





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There is no apparent change in NHC forecast...

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Why do hurricanes always want to land at night? At least for me they have.
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Too close...



Luckily it's just the CMC.
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Quoting ncstorm:


no you younger people are uptight...if you were really his friend you would have told him to remove it instead of egging him on..

go take a swim and relax then come back..


egging him on?
He didnt do anything
He actually was right in what he said.
Him and Neapolitan made an excellent point, there is no benefit for the NHC for them to pad numbers
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12z UKMET-120 hour frame
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Published on Sep 3, 2012 by patrap

Hurricane Issac Impacting NOLA early after Dark Tuesday the 28th of August 2012



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
Seems this will be the scene for Leslie, until Wed/Thursday, like Dr. Masters forecast...

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


NCstorm might be after you...
Although, i do think some of these shouldnt be named, but no they arent really padding numbers


see..all you are doing is trying to disrupt the blog..sad..LOL..
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Quoting ncstorm:


no you younger people are uptight...if you were really his friend you would have told him to remove it instead of egging him on..

go take a swim and relax then come back..
I agree.
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if they were padding the preseason 92L wouldve been named
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Wow you are uptight today....its not namecalling, thats just what he thinks.


no you younger people are uptight...if you were really his friend you would have told him to remove it instead of egging him on..

go take a swim and relax then come back..
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45 AussieStorm: Leslie is predicted to travel 7.1degrees in 120hrs... which = 3.71mph.
Think of all the up-welling. Mind you, not much to up-well.


Leslie is likely to take a more circuitous route: travel closer to 850miles than your ~500mile direct path...
...leading to an average speed between 6mph and 10km/h
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Danny 2009 looked worse..even Gabrielle from 2007.Both horrid looking storms.
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I think some of you need to familiarize yourself with the official definition of a tropical cyclone from the National Hurricane Center.

A tropical cyclone is a..."warm-core, non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center."
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We've seen worse...



If it continues to organize I'd expect advisories to start at 11 tonight or 5AM tomorrow.
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The Marco of the Northeast Atlantic.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The ULL.


Ah, thanks! You too slamquitar.

Just stopped in... I should read the maps instead 'a just lookin' at the pictures~
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Are you under the impression that they get paid by the cyclone? Maybe $500 apiece for a TD? $1,000 for a TD? $2,000 for a TS? $3,000 for a hurricane? $5,000 for a major? Yeah, that must be it!

I would think that keeping the numbers lower so they'd agree with their pre-idiots predictions would make them look better. Those NHC idiots with all their education and degrees and decades of experience; what ever are they thinking? :-\


that el nino wouldve kicked in which it didnt
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Are you under the impression that they get paid by the cyclone? Maybe $500 apiece for a TD? $1,000 for a TD? $2,000 for a TS? $3,000 for a hurricane? $5,000 for a major? Yeah, that must be it!

I would think that keeping the numbers lower so they'd agree with their pre-idiots predictions would make them look better. Those NHC idiots with all their education and degrees and decades of experience; what ever are they thinking? :-\


NCstorm might be after you...
Although, i do think some of these shouldnt be named, but no they arent really padding numbers
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting washingtonian115:
Where is MWX?.


DREW is nowhere to be found
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Isaac claims another life in Louisiana. Channel four
news reporting an elderly man found dead in his west bank home from heat stroke. Electrical has not yet been
restored to that area.
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Actually, if the tropical season ended today, it would have been a pretty decent season: Made it to "L" and there have been two very interesting storms to follow: Ernesto and Isaac. At the same time, no horrible disasters (though Isaac is bad enough, for sure).

As it is, we are just entering the peak 4 weeks of the season.


I would include Debby. She and Isaac were the most interesting to me because it was so unknown with battles as to where they would end up going.
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So some of the recent model runs have TS Leslie coming up the east coast, maybe impacting New England. Does this mean it will actually get its act together instead of playing tag with its mid-level and surface level circulations? What is the bigger factor, steering currents or storm intensity?
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the 12z Euro is running..it should be finished at 5 today..

00 hours-first frame
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Quoting Walshy:
Absolutely pathetic...think they want to stat pad the season a little.
Are you under the impression that they get paid by the cyclone? Maybe $500 apiece for a TD? $1,000 for a TD? $2,000 for a TS? $3,000 for a hurricane? $5,000 for a major? Yeah, that must be it!

I would think that keeping the numbers lower so they'd agree with their pre-season predictions would make them look better. Those NHC idiots with all their education and degrees and decades of experience; what ever are they thinking? :-\
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Where is MWX?.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Wow you are uptight today....its not namecalling, thats just what he thinks.

yep
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.We had tropical thunderstorm Helene to.Those were the best looking thunderstorms I've seen.

tropical thunderfart boniie? lol
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Quoting ncstorm:


Ive seen you do some name calling this weekend on the blog...you were warn this morning but kept right at it..you dont want to get ban on here because I can tell you enjoy blogging and you contribute a lot on here..you should remove the post


Wow you are uptight today....its not namecalling, thats just what he thinks.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I was?


yes you were...remove it because I enjoy your posts..there are people flagging posts on here for any little thing...as someone said earlier, this aint the winter blog where comments can slide..
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134. wxmod
Quoting Grothar:


We lived in Greenland for sometime and I don't ever recall cutting down one tree to stay warm. We just went to the nearest Marriott and we did just fine.


LOL :)
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Quoting Walshy:
Absolutely pathetic...think they want to stat pad the season a little.


Well, I have definitely seen storms which appeared like (or even worse than) 99l, that still had a name, or were still a TD.
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99L up to 30 knots:

AL, 99, 2012090318, , BEST, 0, 255N, 421W, 30, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 100, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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Nice burst occurring with Leslie.
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Quoting weatherh98:
looks like 99l will form into tropical thunderstorm michael soo
Lol.We had tropical thunderstorm Helene to.Those were the best looking thunderstorms I've seen.
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Quoting ncstorm:


Ive seen you do some name calling this weekend on the blog...you were warn this morning but kept right at it..you dont want to get ban on here because I can tell you enjoy blogging and you contribute a lot on here..you should remove the post

I was?

Anyways, I tweaked it just slightly.
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It's tiny, but it's getting better organized... I'm still expecting development, and I see the NHC is now as well.

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I also think this one should have not been named...but oh well.
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:
By the way.... What's that cute little thing swirling together just off the south east tip of Florida???

Link


ULL.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Ive seen you do some name calling this weekend on the blog...you were warn this morning but kept right at it..you dont want to get ban on here because I can tell you enjoy blogging and you contribute a lot on here..you should remove the post
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:
By the way.... What's that cute little thing swirling together just off the south east tip of Florida???

Link
The ULL.
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By the way.... What's that cute little thing swirling together just off the south east tip of Florida???

Link
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The people that think the National Hurricane Center names cyclones just to pad their numbers are...not intelligent. Enough said.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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