Disorganized Leslie headed towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center is fully exposed to view, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
A small extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic, near 26°N 42°W, (Invest 99L), is headed west at 10 mph, and has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


I saw it first. :)


I never you said you didn't :)
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CNN Breaking News ‏@cnnbrk

6.4 magnitude #earthquake south of the Indonesian island of #Java. http://on.cnn.com/OhtJgD
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Braithwaite father and son rescue about 120 from Hurricane Isaac's floodwaters
Published: Sunday, September 02, 2012, 9:30 PM


On Tuesday night, Isaac's winds whipping and floodwaters high, a Braithwaite father and son kept watch over the minimal levee between eastern Plaquemines Parish and the Gulf of Mexico. As midnight hit, Jesse Shaffer Sr. and Jr. decided one would rest for an hour while the other sat on the levee, locally known as the "wall." Then they would switch, hour by hour, charting the water's rise. But at 12:10 a.m. Wednesday, relatives called to say the water already was rushing over the wall several miles south of their location.

On the northern end of Braithwaite, "it was coming up 6 inches every 10 minutes," Shaffer Jr. said.
Water quickly flowed into lawns and down streets in eastern Plaquemines Parish. Then, it seeped into first floors. Residents who had remained in their homes soon climbed stairs with possessions in tow. As the water rose further, many climbed again, to attics and roofs.
Eventually, they had climbed as high as they could. They flailed their arms and screamed.

With official emergency crews waiting for the winds to subside and the sun to rise, no one responded to their cry, except the Shaffers, who are credited with helping to save about 120 lives.
They rescued a 6-month-old baby and a 70-year-old man. They chopped through roof ventilation systems to gain entry. Some residents swam to them. The Schaffers discovered others fragilely bobbing in the currents, clutching debris that floated 10 to 15 feet above asphalt streets.

And whereas Wednesday morning everyone scrambled with all their might to exit, residents now desperately want to return. They want to survey the lake that once was home, and determine what remains of their material lives.
So as Hurricane Isaac moved on, the Shaffers have taken on a new community role: They are guiding residents back.
Many returning residents said this weekend that they will no longer rebuild within Plaquemines' walls. They said, instead, they will move a few miles north to St. Bernard Parish's protected enclave.

Cut off from the world

Eastern Plaquemines residents call their insubstantial 8- to 9-foot levee the "wall." It's supposed to protect eastern Plaquemines from Braithwaite to White Ditch, but it does not meet federal standards and leaves residents vulnerable when storms approach.
The wall is also what they call the mammoth new 26- to 32-foot federal levee system that cuts across the St. Bernard and eastern Plaquemines Parish line, protecting St. Bernard from waters to the south.
Eastern Plaquemines has just one parish border: To the south, east and west is Mother Nature, either the Mississippi River or the unbridled Gulf of Mexico.

When a massive storm is set to hit, the 20-foot-tall levee gate on Braithwaite's northern border shutters, removing easy entry for eastern Plaquemines residents to the walled-off world of safety. By the time the 8-foot parish wall alongside the Gulf began overtopping Wednesday morning, most residents who lived behind it and could flee had done so. Shaffer and son observed the caravan of cars racing into St. Bernard. Eastern Plaquemines had only about 2,000 inhabitants in 700 homes, and while most already had evacuated before the gate closed, the remaining hundreds crossed the border by riding along the levee itself as the actual road was blocked by that solid 20-foot gate.

"We had watched the cars coming through, and the surge coming over the levee kept getting stronger and stronger. And those cars had to drive through the surge coming over like a waterfall. It was crazy," the younger Shaffer said. "There was a lot of people that didn't make it. They didn't have cars there, so ..."
Helping people reach the wall
The spontaneous rescue effort began about 4 a.m. Wednesday with Jesse Shaffer Sr., 53, searching the east bank with his brother-in-law, Lanny Lafrance, 52. That was about seven hours before any other rescue team arrived.

"I had some friends calling me that were stuck. We had to get to them, and the Sheriff's Office was on the other side of the river ... and the water came up so quick," Shaffer Sr. said.
Before dawn, the men already had scooped up eight people, including two floating on a spare tire and a couple with a baby.

"This man here, Jesse, I called him and said my son and grandson were trapped, and he said 'I'm on my way,'" said Mary Williams, 66, who couldn't enter her home on Saturday because the water still was too high. "Him, he needs to go to the President. He needs to be a national hero."
At the break of dawn Wednesday, Shaffer Sr. rescued her son, Richard Clark, along with several others trapped on the second floor of his Braithwaite home. Clark said Shaffer's boat "was the first one we seen that morning." He said he had called the Coast Guard two hours earlier but officials had told him the winds were too strong to stage a rescue.
"We didn't know at the time if we would drown or not," Clark said.

With winds still gusting at near-hurricane force, Shaffer Sr. pulled up to Clark's second-floor window in his Carolina skiff.
Until the sun rose, Shaffer Sr. wouldn't let his 25-year-old son join him on the rescue mission. He was protective of his son.
At least in the light, you can find a tree to grab on to if the boat goes under, the father said.
Shaffer Sr., a former cabinet maker, current shrimp trawler and commissioned deputy sheriff, knew his community well enough to navigate it in pitch dark, in a boat, with 80 mph winds and fierce currents.
While he waited to join his father on the boat, Shaffer Jr. used his youthful instincts.
"I put it on Facebook. I said, 'Message me, text message me.' By the end of the day, I had 80 texts... addresses, locations of more individuals who had to be rescued," he said.

Shaffer Jr., a volunteer firefighter, emergency medical technician and nurse, vividly recalls his first rescue.
"We was heading south on Highway 39, past this house that was a trailer home and there was five people on there and they were screaming, they were just screaming like crazy," he said.
"They were so relieved to see us. They were spinning around. They were screaming the whole time. By the time we pulled to their roof, they had about that much, that much leeway before the entire house was engulfed with water," he said, holding his hands a few inches apart.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hey, check out what George Takei just posted on FB, the advisory from Hurricane Kirk.

I totally didn't send this to him on his wall, if that's what you're thinking. ;)


I swear their stealing all our good lines.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26426
GFS & CMC 144 hrs:

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


How was this season predicted to be above average? Please explain to me, I'm totally lost.

CSU April 4th, 2012 (full season) - 10/4/2
TSR April 12th, 2012 (full season - 13/6/3.
TSR May 23rd, 2012 (full season) - 13/6/3.
UKMO May 24th, 2012 (June-November) - 10 named.
NOAA May 24th, 2012 (full season) 9-15 named.

From what I can tell, all indications where that this season would be below average, heck it was sold to the media like that.
NOAA predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season

We're sitting here on September 3rd with 12-5-0. If we see about 4 named storms this month, we'll end up with 16 named one or two more in October or November.

I don't see how they're padding numbers for a season they predicted to be inactive, wouldn't that be counterproductive and make them look bad? No, they forecast according to their guidelines and not for politics. That's why they're so good.


They want it to be above their predictions. They want to see the trend in more storms in the 20th century. They want to link it to global warming. They want to public to hear the words "the hurricane season ended above average and above forecast".
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Quoting Unfriendly:
LOL just saw this:


Beat you too it :P
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Quoting ElConando:


Caught my eye too a while ago.


I saw it first. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26426
Quoting Grothar:
nifty little spin between S.FL and the Bahamas...
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Quoting Grothar:


Caught my eye too a while ago.
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LOL just saw this:
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hey, check out what George Takei just posted on FB, the advisory from Hurricane Kirk.

I totally didn't send this to him on his wall, if that's what you're thinking. ;)


That's totally awesome!
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Hey, check out what George Takei just posted on FB, the advisory from Hurricane Kirk.

I totally didn't send this to him on his wall, if that's what you're thinking. ;)
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I quit responding to idiocy and the er, weak minded or Google lazy bout Mid Season.

But datz jus me.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
Here we go again.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
I knew it wasn't going to be long before Teddy came in here to set the record straight :).
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


How was this season predicted to be above average? Please explain to me, I'm totally lost.

CSU April 4th, 2012 (full season) - 10/4/2
TSR April 12th, 2012 (full season - 13/6/3.
TSR May 23rd, 2012 (full season) - 13/6/3.
UKMO May 24th, 2012 (June-November) - 10 named.
NOAA May 24th, 2012 (full season) 9-15 named.

From what I can tell, all indications where that this season would be below average, heck it was sold to the media like that.
NOAA predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season

We're sitting here on September 3rd with 12-5-0. If we see about 4 named storms this month, we'll end up with 16 named one or two more in October or November.

I don't see how they're padding numbers for a season they predicted to be inactive, wouldn't that be counterproductive and make them look bad? No, they forecast according to their guidelines and not for politics. That's why they're so good.


best part is, they haven't even classified the damn thing yet and he is going off lol
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26426
CMC 96 hrs.

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Quoting Walshy:


But they can continue to say hurricane season was above average and above predictions every ***** season. It's politics.


How was this season predicted to be above average? Please explain to me, I'm totally lost.

CSU April 4th, 2012 (full season) - 10/4/2
TSR April 12th, 2012 (full season - 13/6/3.
TSR May 23rd, 2012 (full season) - 13/6/3.
UKMO May 24th, 2012 (June-November) - 10 named.
NOAA May 24th, 2012 (full season) 9-15 named.

From what I can tell, all indications where that this season would be below average, heck it was sold to the media like that.
NOAA predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season

We're sitting here on September 3rd with 12-5-0. If we see about 4 named storms this month, we'll end up with 16 named one or two more in October or November.

I don't see how they're padding numbers for a season they predicted to be inactive, wouldn't that be counterproductive and make them look bad? No, they forecast according to their guidelines and not for politics. That's why they're so good.
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201. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


Covering itself, seems the windshear went down a little.
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Quoting Grothar:


Not being funny, but I posted that twice this morning. Even the LSU image.


come to chat\
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The p word as in politics.
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Quoting stribe37:


As a Canadian, what politics are involved here? Are you insinuating that the NHC is trying to pad named storms so they can be seen as 'relevant' and not get their funding cut, or something?

Quite frankly, as someone looking from the outside in, I'd think the NHC is one government agency that should be getting the funds needed to accurately predict these storms, not cut - if that's indeed what you're implying.



Global warming.
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Long range models show fall is coming..:)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Was not expecting that at all.


Not being funny, but I posted that twice this morning. Even the LSU image.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26426
Quoting washingtonian115:
Did some one just mention the "P" word on here?.(I know some of you guys are thinking with that down there except for your head).The admin have been on the roll today.

What, in the chat?
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Did some one just mention the "P" word on here?.(I know some of you guys are thinking with that down there except for your head).The admin have been on the roll today.
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Quoting Walshy:


But they can continue to say hurricane season was above average and above predictions every ***** season. It's politics.


As a Canadian, what politics are involved here? Are you insinuating that the NHC is trying to pad named storms so they can be seen as 'relevant' and not get their funding cut, or something?

Quite frankly, as someone looking from the outside in, I'd think the NHC is one government agency that should be getting the funds needed to accurately predict these storms, not cut - if that's indeed what you're implying.

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Quoting RTSplayer:


Technically it made land fall in lower Plaquemines and in Houma, but nobody even mentions Houma at all on television or internet, it's like they don't even exist.


Somebody posted a photo during the eye going over Houma at a gas station. (Sorry I searched back and couldn't find it). But, no, haven't heard much else. Hopefully only little damage done there.
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One of those quick blog entry (not deeply detailed, but plenty of forecast maps) with new graphics and new figures.

Link
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for those on the east coast, please be careful at the beaches if you are swimming or boating..dangerous conditions are setting up from Leslie..rip currents and big waves..today is the last day for lifeguards on NC beaches so if you are planning on swimming, know that you were warned..

NWS, Marine Discussion in Wilmington, NC

A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST ON
MONDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE VERY SLOW MOVING TROPICAL STORM
LESLIE WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE BEACHES TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS.

BECAUSE LESLIE IS DRIFTING
VERY SLOWLY IN FORWARD MOTION...SWELLS WILL BE WITH US MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SEAS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COMPRISED OF S
WAVES 2-3 FEET AT 4-5 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-2 FEET AT 10-11
SECONDS. ESE WAVES OF 1-2 FEET WILL ARRIVE FROM LESLIE LATER
TONIGHT WITH INTERVALS OF 13-15 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE CAUGHT IN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A PINCHED OFF RIDGE CENTERED TO TO THE
EAST OF THE WATERS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THIS GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE PERIOD.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE IMPACT OF SWELL FROM THE SLOW MOVING
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE WAVEWATCH III IS
SHOWING A 2.5 TO 3 FEET 14 SECOND SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SWELL IS FORECASTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE TO 3.5 TO 4 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND 4 TUESDAY AND INCREASE TO
4 TO 5 FEET AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS THU AND
FRI. INITIALLY SPEEDS WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 KT BUT GRADIENT WILL RELAX
A LITTLE AS FRONT/TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THU NIGHT
INTO FRI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THIS BOUNDARY MAY PUSH OFF THE COAST
LATE IN THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY CAUSING A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO OFFSHORE FLOW
UNDER 10 KT IF THE BOUNDARY DOES PUSH EAST OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
BE A COMBINATION OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST TO EAST SWELLS FROM LESLIE
AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE. NEAR 20 NM SEAS COULD EXCEED 6 FT
AND A SCA MAY BE REQUIRED. CLOSER TO SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 4 FT.


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189. JLPR2
Here is a pretty non-tropical system.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.If agencies were padding there numbers then we wouldn't be on storm 12.Because a lot of them had forecast a season with only 12-15 named storms.We would be on storm 3 or 4 by now.Lol.


lol...

"Trust us guys, That big swirly thing over Louisiana is NOT a tropical cyclone..." (fake NHC, August 28, 2012).
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Is notwxgeekvalol a troll?.The name seems very trollish.


NO
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Is notwxgeekvalol a troll?.The name seems very trollish.


not a troll but its NOT WXGEEKVA LOL

so its wxgeek va
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6535
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Quoting Walshy:


But they can continue to say hurricane season was above average and above predictions every ***** season. It's politics.


1, Their predictions don't change the real average anyway.

2, Naming additional storms to push up the numbers would increase the average, making it harder and harder to beat the average. Therefore if we were above the average every year, it would still be more storms than before, even if they were faking some of them.
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Quoting weatherh98:


anular maybe?
I think that the ULL over the Bahamas could be pulling it west briefly. As I stated before. Sometimes the computer's don't factor in ULL's well when forecasting. The ULL could be pulling it like a Pulley. Especially when Leslie doesn't have much else steering her.
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Quoting Walshy:


No.

I think they just pad stats to make it look like a busy hurricane season.


Padding stats would make them look bad in the international and academic community because other researchers would know the difference.

There are so many nations in the world, and since we broadcast all of our satellite data on the internet, not to mention buoy data, and they have their own systems as well, they would all know the difference and it would make NHC look stupid and/or dishonest.


The pros botched the El Nino predictions this year, and so they under-estimated the number of systems we'd have. It's as simple as that.

I thought it was under-done the whole time, which is why I originally said 15-16 names storms.
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Is notwxgeekvalol a troll?.The name seems very trollish.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Not really, as that would hurt the "skill" of their pre-season forecasts.

So it would only make them look less skillful if they tried to cheat stats either way from now on.


But they can continue to say hurricane season was above average and above predictions every ***** season. It's politics.
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Quoting Patrap:
CHRIS GRAYTHEN / GETTY IMAGES

Isaac has claimed at least two dozen lives in Haiti alone, and made landfall in New Orleans as a category 1 hurricane. Its arrival falls on the seventh anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.



Technically it made land fall in lower Plaquemines and in Houma, but nobody even mentions Houma at all on television or internet, it's like they don't even exist.
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Quoting Walshy:
Absolutely pathetic...think they want to stat pad the season a little.


Not really, as that would hurt the "skill" of their pre-season forecasts.

So it would only make them look less skillful if they tried to cheat stats either way from now on.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think some of you need to familiarize yourself with the official definition of a tropical cyclone from the National Hurricane Center.

A tropical cyclone is a..."warm-core, non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center."


+100

There is a well defined criteria, if a storm no matter how small or large, meets that criteria it is named. End of story.
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Quoting ncstorm:


24 hour-the Euro is running very slow


Ok. I am waiting to see if it develops the same wave that GFS has. That wave is now in Nigeria.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14308
The models show 99L as a little speckle.Don't really do nothing with it.Would be funny if it became a hurricane.The NHC did say conditions were conductive.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Does anyone posting the 12z Euro?

This is 24 hours.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Does anyone posting the 12z Euro?


24 hour-the Euro is running very slow
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Quoting ncstorm:
notice the center in the frames--it looks the storm will go west for a while..how close it gets before turning away is the question..that is one HUGE storm..



Although that is the Wave height forecasted graph...

The Wind Gust graph is

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.