Disorganized Leslie headed towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center is fully exposed to view, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
A small extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic, near 26°N 42°W, (Invest 99L), is headed west at 10 mph, and has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting LargoFl:
hope there is no indication he could reform in the gulf


A part of me would be very interested to see that happen, because then Isaac will go down in history as the most persistent bugger in the universe. And Ernesto was pretty perisent himself, I mean, he could still be naked and swirling somewhere out there even now.
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Quoting LargoFl:
i have a bad feeling about the end of this week


someone is going to be quoting Gomer from the Andy Griffith Show..

"SURPRISE..SURPRISE..SURPRISE!"
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16214
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269. JLPR2
Is it me or is Leslie stalled already, I'm not seeing much movement in any direction.

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Quoting ncstorm:
that trough may not be as strong as people are hoping..


Very possible now. Only one model had Isaac moving back South. The others had him moving NE. This might make a big change on the path of Leslie.
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Quoting wxgeek723:


LOL Helene.

Didn't recon investigate it that day? Because if it did, there really is no justifiable reason not to have classified it that day, since it was threatening land and was producing decent convection, and it had a closed low-level circulation. Why must you be so negative with every single storm that has formed this year?
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Quoting sar2401:


That really struck me when I read the 11 pm last night. In my memory (not as long as yours, but close), I have never seen the word "blob" used in afficial forecast discussion before, even though the word is descriptive what we commonly see. It's hard to believe they don't read at least some of what's posted here. Either that or they have hacked your internet connection, Gro. :) Watch out for any black helicopters flying around your house.


They could at least put me in the credits.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Disco...

Whaaaa...Whaaaaaa...Whaaaaaaaaat!

.LONG TERM...
THE REMNANT LOW OF ISAAC LOCATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS
FORECAST BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH RETURN OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. SO WILL INCREASE THE POPS OVER ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
HIGHEST SCATTERED POPS OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY.

THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS OF HALF AN
INCH TO ONE INCH FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND WITH EVEN ONE TO TWO INCHES OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY.
HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE TOTAL RAINFALL DUE TO
THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LOW.
hope there is no indication he could reform in the gulf
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262. JLPR2
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Dunno if you remember...but I said the bad big storm of the year would be Michael! haha Ah well, maybe not at this rate! But it may end up being the cutest lil' thing if it gets named it LOL



I wouldn't mind a cute little major hurricane. :)
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Disco...

Whaaaa...Whaaaaaa...Whaaaaaaaaat!

.LONG TERM...
THE REMNANT LOW OF ISAAC LOCATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS
FORECAST BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH RETURN OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. SO WILL INCREASE THE POPS OVER ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
HIGHEST SCATTERED POPS OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY.

THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS OF HALF AN
INCH TO ONE INCH FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND WITH EVEN ONE TO TWO INCHES OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY.
HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE TOTAL RAINFALL DUE TO
THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LOW.



I think this is what the EMCWF has been hinting at for a few days. If Leslie misses both troughs and the third weakens or moves, the high could possibly build back in and move her a little more west. The CMC, oddly enough is thinking the same thing.
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Quoting ncstorm:
very interesting..Isaac will cross Florida once again and head up the east coast..

i have a bad feeling about the end of this week
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Duh. 99L is bigger than Igor.
Leslie is giving Marco competition on becoming smallest storm ever.

I know right, 99L must have broken the record for the largest invest/storm, he is even bigger than typhoon Tip. Leslie on the other hand makes Marco look normal sized, LOL.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Did you patent your word 'blob', Gro? It was used today!


He's almost dead Jim!!!


;>)
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Quoting Grothar:


I saw that. Very disturbing. What I am waiting for is if they ever write that some "twit" thinks this storm is moving west. Then I'll know they read us.


That really struck me when I read the 11 pm last night. In my memory (not as long as yours, but close), I have never seen the word "blob" used in afficial forecast discussion before, even though the word is descriptive what we commonly see. It's hard to believe they don't read at least some of what's posted here. Either that or they have hacked your internet connection, Gro. :) Watch out for any black helicopters flying around your house.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Every single storm this year has been classifiable, unless you want to just start ignoring hurricanes out in the Atlantic simply because they're not a threat to the US.


LOL Helene. You could also argue that Joyce could have remained a depression.

Come on Ted. This season couldn't put up a fight in July and it still hasn't spat out a major hurricane. Does it really deserve to be in the ranks as one of the most active seasons on record?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
But-but....Micheal Jackson was a legend :(...


Dunno if you remember...but I said the bad big storm of the year would be Michael! haha Ah well, maybe not at this rate! But it may end up being the cutest lil' thing if it gets named it LOL


I wanted to say about the whole meme thing. I don't see why it's so bad if it's accompanying something being said about a storm. Like, it's ok to just make the comment about the storm...but not ok to make a comment and have a meme to go along with it? I can see if people are just posting unrelated pics for no reason and not even commenting on weather or a storm, but don't see why it's bad if it's WITH a comment. I do think some people complaining about them are more annoying than the odd meme being posted as they do it incessantly and continuously. I try to not block 'anyone', but it has become closer with people whinging than people posting the odd meme... especially when they go with a weather related comment and makes the comment a bit more lighthearted than just making a comment. I dunno, I just feel some people are sitting at their pc waiting for someone to do something so they can jump down their throats at them. Even though it seems like it's ok if they just said something about the storm but without a meme with it...just doesn't make sense as it's surely still technically on topic. Especially when it seems ok for some to do it and not others. Not that anyone cares, but my semi-lurker thoughts on it.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Well obviously thats true, 99L is the biggest invest I have ever seen.

Duh. 99L is bigger than Igor.
Leslie is giving Marco competition on becoming smallest storm ever.
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TS John in the epac:


TS Leslie:


Both are not looking to good right now and John makes Leslie look ok right now.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
252. JLPR2
Quoting sar2401:


That's nice. Where is it and what is it? Seriously, is it too much to ask of you guys that post graphics to mention what it is that we're looking at?


Here is a zoomed out one for you and what I said is pretty much all the explanation you need.



Unless you didn't see what I wrote, which would be strange...
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If one watches the CMC at high speed,, the trough kicks Leslie out of the park with vigor..Link
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250. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:




well i hop you no this be come you want some in dos not mean its all ways going too happen


If I understood you correctly...
Been here 5 years, don't you think I know that. XD
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Leslie is very tiny. 99L, on the other hand, is absolutely ginormous.

Well obviously thats true, 99L is the biggest invest I have ever seen.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
very interesting..Isaac will cross Florida once again and head up the east coast..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16214
Quoting JLPR2:
Here is a pretty non-tropical system.


That's nice. Where is it and what is it? Seriously, is it too much to ask of you guys that post graphics to mention what it is that we're looking at?
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Good afternoon everyone, just got back from an event called Arts, Beats, and Eats. I really think we could see a TD/TS out of 99L. Leslie still looks the same as this morning.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Hey wait... is Leslie putting up a decent fight in the daytime? That's what it looks like, does that bode an upwards trend in the future, one that may come sooner rather than later?
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Quoting AegirsGal:
Is that sarcasm?

Of course. :P
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.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Leslie is very tiny. 99L, on the other hand, is absolutely ginormous.
LOL
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Leslie is very tiny. 99L, on the other hand, is absolutely ginormous.
Is that sarcasm?
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
Leslie is very tiny. 99L, on the other hand, is absolutely ginormous.
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HPC 3:21pm extended discussion..

REGARDING THE 12Z GUIDANCE...THE SOLUTION SPREAD IS EQUAL IF NOT
GREATER THAN DURING THE 00Z CYCLE...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SWITCHING
SIDES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BY DAYS 6/7...WHILE IN THE EAST THE GFS
IS SIMILAR TO ITS PRIOR RUN...WHILE THE ECMWF IS IS EVEN SHARPER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE EXACT STRUCTURE OF THE TROUGH NOT ONLY INFLUENCES THE
TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN
ONE-THIRD OF THE CONUS...BUT ALSO THE TRACK OF LESLIE...WITH THE
ECMWF MOVING LESLIE CLOSE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE JUST BEYOND
DAY 7.
GIVEN THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS AND THE LIMITED
PREDICTABILITY OF THE FLOW GOVERNING IT...THE FINAL PREFERENCE IS
TO PRESERVE CONTINUITY WITH EARLIER ISSUANCES...WHICH IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR ALL SYSTEMS...INCLUDING
LESLIE AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE NHC.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16214
Quoting JLPR2:


Taz...
That's what I want, not a forecast.




well i hop you no this be come you want some in dos not mean its all ways going too happen
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115436
From the Miami NWS Disco...

Whaaaa...Whaaaaaa...Whaaaaaaaaat!

.LONG TERM...
THE REMNANT LOW OF ISAAC LOCATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS
FORECAST BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH RETURN OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. SO WILL INCREASE THE POPS OVER ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
HIGHEST SCATTERED POPS OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY.

THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS OF HALF AN
INCH TO ONE INCH FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND WITH EVEN ONE TO TWO INCHES OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY.
HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE TOTAL RAINFALL DUE TO
THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LOW.
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that trough may not be as strong as people are hoping..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16214
235. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:




how you no its going out too sea when it has not even fourmed yet


Taz...
That's what I want, not a forecast.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yay!
Come on long tracked, out to sea major, form already! XD




how you no its going out too sea when it has not even fourmed yet
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115436
Quoting Walshy:


They want it to be above their predictions. They want to see the trend in more storms in the 20th century. They want to link it to global warming. They want to public to hear the words "the hurricane season ended above average and above forecast".


with the exception of Helene, every other storm that was classified this year was 100% a tropical cyclone and deserved classification

Even if you take out the 1 storm, you are still above average for the season, sorry your argument holds no water and to me it looks like you are desperately trying to find some sort of conspiracy that is not there.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Did you patent your word 'blob', Gro? It was used today!


I saw that. Very disturbing. What I am waiting for is if they ever write that some "twit" thinks this storm is moving west. Then I'll know they read us.
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230. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:
Looks like Leslie gets stronger the further North she goes. And that wave looks like it wants to be a typical Cape Verde storm.



Yay!
Come on long tracked, out to sea major, form already! XD
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the euro shifted west for the 12z..center passing west of bermuda

00z
120 hours


this looks like the 12z CMC run
12z-144 hours


192 hours


240 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16214
Quoting ElConando:


I never you said you didn't :)


Actually GeoffWPB posted the Miami NWS bulletin on this, early this morning. So since he wasn't on I thought I would be safe. :)
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Looks like Leslie gets stronger the further North she goes. And that wave looks like it wants to be a typical Cape Verde storm.

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Yep, seem the models have a good grip on Leslie.

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Quoting Walshy:


They want it to be above their predictions. They want to see the trend in more storms in the 20th century. They want to link it to global warming. They want to public to hear the words "the hurricane season ended above average and above forecast".


Every single storm this year has been classifiable, unless you want to just start ignoring hurricanes out in the Atlantic simply because they're not a threat to the US.
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Quoting Grothar:


I swear their stealing all our good lines.


Did you patent your word 'blob', Gro? It was used today!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
217. Methinks you want a conspiracy so that you can be right, rather than seeing the truth for what it is...just the truth.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
Quoting Grothar:


I saw it first. :)


I never you said you didn't :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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