Disorganized Leslie headed towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center is fully exposed to view, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
A small extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic, near 26°N 42°W, (Invest 99L), is headed west at 10 mph, and has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Maybe they will close florida schools again for Ike when it comes back. Dummies.
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Greetings Dr Masters:
I hope the time you receive this email, you are enjoying excellent health. It is an honor to write and ask you, specifically you, who spent Hurricane Hugo on the island of St. Croix, on official data from NOAA, who indicate that the winds measured at the military base Roosevelt Roads, Ceiba, located in Puerto Rico, measured sustained winds of 104 mph with gusts up to 120 mph. But my question is based on the geographical location of the anemometer at the time, which measured the winds, and if the current reading from winds may have been influenced or affected by mountains, flora or other geographic feature? I spent Hurricane Hugo in Dorado Puerto Rico located in the central north coast of the island and although the winds were not as intense as shown videotapes of the northeastern part of the island, was quite strong. In addition, other factors to categorize the intensity of the damage caused by hurricane winds are not consistent with an intensity of a Category 2 hurricane, but a hurricane category 3 or maybe more. These damages were evidenced through the tops of the palm trees, which were torn by the winds, the total destruction of the wooden houses throughout the area northeast of the island, including Vieques and Culebra, and the detachment of the bark of many trees.

P.S. In addition, you and I know, which is in the public domain, that hurricane San Ciprian was promoted recently by NOAA, to a Category 4 hurricane when it crossed the island of Puerto Rico. What data after so many years since Hurricane San Ciprian, NOAA use to, officially, categorize to a category 4 hurricane as it passes over the island of Puerto Rico? Since then for only several anemometers between Roosevelt Roads and SJ (located in the weakest quadrant of Hurricane Hugo) Hugo becomes official, was category 2 when passing through PR, when evidence of damage near the area, through which pass the eyewall, do not reflect a category 2, but rather a category 3 or maybe more? Also shown in the videos is the power of these winds.

I will await your prompt reply and professional opinion about it

You can write me to kenneth.lopez.83@gmail.com, thank you

Sincerely,
--
KENNETH LOPEZ RODRIGUEZ
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Quoting Grothar:


What is the current ACE?

~49.86. A normal season has 37 at this point.
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99L got renumbered!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al992012_al132012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209032039
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14406
Quoting Grothar:


I do too. Mrs. Grothar is coming back home on Friday.
You deserve a skillet to the noggin for that one.
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Quoting ncstorm:


LOL!! I left you a comment!!


It was just funny when you mentioned Gomer. :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Even using Accumulated Cyclone Energy, this season has been above average. I don't see what the problem is.


What is the current ACE?
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Quoting Grothar:


If it does move South, it should be able to pick up a lot of moisture.

It looks to be moving SE, sad pulling away any chance of rain. Sigh, will have to wait for Tuesday and Wednesday for T-storms.
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314. JLPR2
Quoting wxchaser97:
...LESLIE MOVING VERY SLOWLY...
5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 3
Location: 24.0°N 63.1°W
Moving: NNW at 3 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph


Hmm...
No one mentioned this:


11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 3
Location: 24.4N 63.1W

5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 3
Location: 24.0N 63.1W

Little adjustment to the south.
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Quoting wxgeek723:


Helene easily could have been a depression, it was just named to bring attention to the system. Because that's what names bring. If it gets a name it gets attention.

No, it was named because aircraft recon found tropical storm force winds and a closed circulation.
Quoting wxgeek723:


I read an article the other day 'Kirk and Leslie spin in one of the most active hurricane seasons on record' which I just strongly disagree with. I just don't like to see this year get recognition for all the wrong reasons, and I want the value of a name to be special. From now on the ACE is what I will be paying the most attention to because blink-and-you'll-miss storms can barely inflate that.

While some storms (Florence, Helene and Joyce)have been short-lived, they have all met the criteria of a tropical cyclone. Not a single named storm on this so far above average season has failed to meet these criteria. The ACE for this season is above average as well; a normal season has 37 at this point, but this season is at ~50 so far. Your take on "Blink-and-you'll-miss" storms, as you call them, I do somewhat agree with, since they barely inflate ACE at all.
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Quoting Grothar:



You obviously never read my blog I posted on August 27th. It is still there. Wish you would take a look!



LOL!! I left you a comment!!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15738
Quoting thesurfsup:
I really enjoy reading the comments about current and past storms but every once in a while I see someone wishing for a storm or a hurricane.

From what little I know hurricanes are vital part of nature but anyone who wishes for a storm just so they can track, watch and comment on it is just wrong.

I live on the coast and have been directly affected buy Ivan, Opal, Erin, Dennis Elena, Fredrick and Camille. If you have ever been through one of these and endured the loses I don't know how you could ever wish for a storm of any size as you never know it could be a fish storm and could destroy someone's life.

Timm

Don't Tread On Me!!


I agree. It's one thing to comment on storms that are safely out in the Atlantic and will harm no one. Some really are beautiful. It's quite another to be wishing for an invest or something that hasen't even formed yet to be the big CV storm of the year. There are a lot of people on here that have gone through some horrible storms that were once just like 99L. There are others who have never been through such a storm but may find out that wishing for something can sometimes bring some pretty bad consequences.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
310. 7544
eruo following isacc

Link
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6862
pic of Isaac at night:

Link
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308. JLPR2
Quoting sar2401:


OK, now I see why you posted the image. Before, it was a low that had some kind of landmass to the left but, being dense, I'm not good at figuring out exactly what landmass it was and where. What you posted didn't give me a clue about that.

So what's deal with that thing? I was assuming that's what the remants of Isaac would eventually ride out to sea. Now Miami is saying Isaac's remnants are going to head south and get into the Gulf again? We are getting storms here in central AL that look like outer rainbands of the low formerly know as Isaac, so maybe it is headed south. I'm so confused. :)


Isaac is still well inland.

And you got me there, to me it seems a bit difficult for Isaac's remnants to head into Florida, maybe a piece of energy related to it.
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The way some of the models are showing Leslie bombing out, it may go from menacing Bermuda to strafing Cape Cod to side-swiping Labrador to pulling some Arctic Ice through the Fram Strait east of Greenland.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
Quoting wxchaser97:

Well it was very hard to find but I finally found it;)
I still see it clearly, barely brought us any rain.


If it does move South, it should be able to pick up a lot of moisture.
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Quoting 7544:


is that isaac in the gulf could it reorganize in that area and go ene hmm anyone know is he going back to fl ?tia


his remnants are supposed to cross over northern florida and head up the east coast..will it develop again..go to Grothar's blog..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15738
Quoting sar2401:


Yep, you can still see that swirl/blob © spinning around. You can also clearly see the rainbands being spun off that are affecting us in Alabama. If the trough headed south from Canada is as strong as predicted, maybe that thing will get pushed into the Gulf....No, that can't happen....it's just to irritating to think about. :)

Rain/storm bands are trying to get into MI but I doubt I'll get anything. This is Isaac, he has done some pretty strange things.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Until know it has been one of the most active on record 2010 by now only have Gaston or Hermine and we are by leslie know and that season end with 19 named storms this can end with 20 or 21 so it can be consider one of the most actives on record base on name storms.


That's my point. How significant is that 'named storms' number nowadays?
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Quoting LargoFl:
i have a bad feeling about the end of this week


I do too. Mrs. Grothar is coming back home on Friday.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
NHC predicts a Category 2 in 120 hours. Seems reasonable.

Yeah, I mostly agree with that.
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Quoting wxgeek723:


Helene easily could have been a depression, it was just named to bring attention to the system. Because that's what names bring. If it gets a name it gets attention.

I read an article the other day 'Kirk and Leslie spin in one of the most active hurricane seasons on record' which I just strongly disagree with. I just don't like to see this year get recognition for all the wrong reasons, and I want the value of a name to be special. From now on the ACE is what I will be paying the most attention to because blink-and-you'll-miss storms can barely inflate that.
Until know it has been one of the most active on record 2010 by now only have Gaston or Hermine and we are by leslie know and that season end with 19 named storms this can end with 20 or 21 so it can be consider one of the most actives on record base on name storms.
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Even using Accumulated Cyclone Energy, this season has been above average. I don't see what the problem is.
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TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012

SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
LESLIE RECENTLY...BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC DUE TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 50 KT. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO LET UP
MUCH FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...SO LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN
UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN THAT IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THE CYCLONE TO
INTENSIFY. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE.

LESLIE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND MOST OF THE DAY...AND THE LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. A LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS
330/3. A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4
DAYS AS LESLIE REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WHICH SHOULD STEER LESLIE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT A
FASTER PACE. THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE WEST AT
DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THERE IS NOW A WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AT DAY 5. THIS FORECAST LIES FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCA AND TV15.

DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE AND EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL AFFECT
BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON A 1340 UTC
ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 24.0N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 24.6N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 25.3N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 25.8N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 26.3N 63.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 28.1N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Leslie has slowed down, was she forecast to do that so soon?
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Quoting Grothar:



You obviously never read my blog I posted on August 27th. It is still there. Wish you would take a look!



Grothar..I am heading there right now to catch up..I told you you need to push your blog in here..just a link for us lazy folks who rarely navigate in WU..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15738
295. 7544
Quoting MahFL:
Lol I thought that Miami discussion was fake. I too recall seeing an ensemble member having Isaac heading south to FL.


yeap and the euro showed this a couple of days ago as it had coming south down the spine interesting to see if he gain some thing in the gom before crossing over
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6862
NHC predicts a Category 2 in 120 hours. Seems reasonable.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Well it was very hard to find but I finally found it;)
I still see it clearly, barely brought us any rain.


Yep, you can still see that swirl/blob © spinning around. You can also clearly see the rainbands being spun off that are affecting us in Alabama. If the trough headed south from Canada is as strong as predicted, maybe that thing will get pushed into the Gulf....No, that can't happen....it's just to irritating to think about. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
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Quoting sar2401:


Nope, I went back ad read it again. No mention of ancient blooger on WU. :) Maybe you should have been posting "blob ©" to protect yourself.


Gee, thanks. But if they start using terms like blobification and blobette, I'll have to take some action.
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I really enjoy reading the comments about current and past storms but every once in a while I see someone wishing for a storm or a hurricane.

From what little I know hurricanes are vital part of nature but anyone who wishes for a storm just so they can track, watch and comment on it is just wrong.

I live on the coast and have been directly affected buy Ivan, Opal, Erin, Dennis Elena, Fredrick and Camille. If you have ever been through one of these and endured the loses I don't know how you could ever wish for a storm of any size as you never know it could be a fish storm and could destroy someone's life.

Timm

Don't Tread On Me!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...LESLIE MOVING VERY SLOWLY...
5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 3
Location: 24.0°N 63.1°W
Moving: NNW at 3 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
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Quoting ncstorm:


someone is going to be quoting Gomer from the Andy Griffith Show..

"SURPRISE..SURPRISE..SURPRISE!"



You obviously never read my blog I posted on August 27th. It is still there. Wish you would take a look!

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287. MahFL
Lol I thought that Miami discussion was fake. I too recall seeing an ensemble member having Isaac heading south to FL.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Didn't recon investigate it that day? Because if it did, there really is no justifiable reason not to have classified it that day, since it was threatening land and was producing decent convection, and it had a closed low-level circulation. Why must you be so negative with every single storm that has formed this year?


Helene easily could have been a depression, it was just named to bring attention to the system. Because that's what names bring. If it gets a name it gets attention.

I read an article the other day 'Kirk and Leslie spin in one of the most active hurricane seasons on record' which I just strongly disagree with. I just don't like to see this year get recognition for all the wrong reasons, and I want the value of a name to be special. From now on the ACE is what I will be paying the most attention to because blink-and-you'll-miss storms can barely inflate that.
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Quoting Grothar:


They could at least put me in the credits.


Nope, I went back ad read it again. No mention of ancient blooger on WU. :) Maybe you should have been posting "blob ©" to protect yourself.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
Quoting Grothar:
You can clearly see the remnants of Isaac in this loop.


Link

Well it was very hard to find but I finally found it;)
I still see it clearly, barely brought us any rain.
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Quoting ncstorm:


I had posted last week right after Issac made landfall that some of the GFS ensembles had Isaac heading back in the GOM but no one ever listens to me:(


I listened and remember it well. I believe it was post 1442 on the 31st.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Is it me or is Leslie stalled already, I'm not seeing much movement in any direction.

Sure looks like it. I wonder if the mid level circulation caught up with the lower level circulation given the new convection firing where the 'naked' swirl was.
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281. 7544
Quoting ncstorm:
12z UKMET-120 hour frame


is that isaac in the gulf could it reorganize in that area and go ene hmm anyone know is he going back to fl ?tia
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6862
You can clearly see the remnants of Isaac in this loop.


Link
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Quoting ncstorm:


I had posted last week right after Issac made landfall that some of the GFS ensembles had Isaac heading back in the GOM but no one ever listens to me:(

Ivan did a similar thing, anyway a piece of Isaac and some other energy, I think, form the GOM disturbance.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Disco...

Whaaaa...Whaaaaaa...Whaaaaaaaaat!

.LONG TERM...
THE REMNANT LOW OF ISAAC LOCATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS
FORECAST BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH RETURN OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. SO WILL INCREASE THE POPS OVER ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
HIGHEST SCATTERED POPS OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY.

THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS OF HALF AN
INCH TO ONE INCH FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND WITH EVEN ONE TO TWO INCHES OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY.
HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE TOTAL RAINFALL DUE TO
THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LOW.


As long as the remnant doesn't cross Florida back into the GOM and decide he wants to do it all again. Hopefully Florida won't get anymore rain where it's not needed.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3150
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39635
Quoting JLPR2:


Here is a zoomed out one for you and what I said is pretty much all the explanation you need.



Unless you didn't see what I wrote, which would be strange...


OK, now I see why you posted the image. Before, it was a low that had some kind of landmass to the left but, being dense, I'm not good at figuring out exactly what landmass it was and where. What you posted didn't give me a clue about that.

So what's deal with that thing? I was assuming that's what the remants of Isaac would eventually ride out to sea. Now Miami is saying Isaac's remnants are going to head south and get into the Gulf again? We are getting storms here in central AL that look like outer rainbands of the low formerly know as Isaac, so maybe it is headed south. I'm so confused. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
Quoting Grothar:


Very possible now. Only one model had Isaac moving back South. The others had him moving NE. This might make a big change on the path of Leslie.


I had posted last week right after Issac made landfall that some of the GFS ensembles had Isaac heading back in the GOM but no one ever listens to me:(
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15738
Quoting ncstorm:


someone is going to be quoting Gomer from the Andy Griffith Show..

"SURPRISE..SURPRISE..SURPRISE!"
LOL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39635
Quoting LostTomorrows:


A part of me would be very interested to see that happen, because then Isaac will go down in history as the most persistent bugger in the universe. And Ernesto was pretty perisent himself, I mean, he could still be naked and swirling somewhere out there even now.
yeah he just wont go away anytime soon
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39635
Quoting LargoFl:
hope there is no indication he could reform in the gulf


A part of me would be very interested to see that happen, because then Isaac will go down in history as the most persistent bugger in the universe. And Ernesto was pretty perisent himself, I mean, he could still be naked and swirling somewhere out there even now.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 602

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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