Disorganized Leslie headed towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center is fully exposed to view, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
A small extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic, near 26°N 42°W, (Invest 99L), is headed west at 10 mph, and has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Exactly. Recon was there for quite some time, and they continuously found TS winds. Why do you keep denying Tropical Storm Helene's existence?


So be it. You win. The sad clump of thunderstorms was Helene.

I just can't help but cock my head sometimes. I think tropical cyclones are very special because they are named, and I don't want the NHC to deflate the meaning of a name just because it's near land or it's for their budget or something like that.

Look I used to be a huge fanatic about this stuff. I loved watching storms be personified. 2007 was such a great year because they would name storms left and right. And since I once went through a phase like that, I can tell that the people on WU operate the same way. So of course if I come in here and say there was no need to name Kevin, Drew, and Bob, I'm obviously going to take some backlash. I just think this blog gets such a rush out of watching storms get named it sometimes...messes with their heads a bit that's all.

Besides, like I said, I want 2012 to be remembered as an odd and unique hurricane season, not a hyperactive one.
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I predict a Levi sighting...
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Quoting caneswatch:


You mean to say Taz got banned for it?



no am still here if i was bannd i would not be on here right now now would i
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AGW...





I calculated complete summer meltdown in 8 to 14 years.*

Complete winter meltdown in 36 years**.

* This uses only the exponential regression of Area. A better method would be to "squeeze" the regressions of Area, volume, and extent to be equal to zero in the same year, or within a 95% confidence of the same year...because the shape of the ice is amorphous, there is not a 1 to 1 correlation to the graphs in any one year, however, whenever volume reaches zero, all other values must be zero by the squeeze theorem.


** There is a negative feedback effect which could delay this a few more decades, its hard to quantify from the available data.


The rate of decrease in winter maximum is currently increasing at an exponential rate of 50% per 7 years, or 5.96% per year.

The rate of increase in annual net melting for the Summer minimum is currently increasing between 50% and 100% per five years. For this year, it is hard to tell, since the trend line says 50% per 5 years for the past 5 years, but this year's actual data point suggests 100%, just as was the case for the past 20 years. This is somewhere between an exponential trend of 8.447% per year and 14.87% per year.
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Quoting sar2401:


No, assuming that happened, and assuming it ever got strong enough to be named, it would have one of the names remaining on the list, since it long ago lost its tropical characteristics. It would be treated just like a new storm.

Unless it's surface circulation is still intact. If so, it is the same system, and will keep its name.
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Quoting aspectre:
14 PensacolaDoug: ...Presslord in a dress was 1st posted by Presslord several years ago...something to do with a fund raiser for PORTLIGHT...no one was offended and it was never removed, until today

On the contrary several regulars were temp-banned, and at least one was perma-banned cuz he refused to stop posting it.
There's a fine line between being overly repetitive with a humorous pic and deliberate trolling.


You mean to say Taz got banned for it?
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This will be the one to watch this week along with Leslie.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

He's a non-believer.

Blasphemy!
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2012

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WHICH DEVELOPED FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...HAS
GRADUALLY ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER AND RELIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 25 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET A LITTLE HIGHER AT 30 KT SINCE ASCAT HAS A KNOWN LOW BIAS AND
BECAUSE THE RESOLUTION OF THE INSTRUMENT LIKELY CAN NOT RESOLVE THE
SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS.

THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY LIES BENEATH A TROUGH AXIS...WHERE THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR RELATIVELY LIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH AND THE CYCLONE MOVING IN TANDEM...WHICH KEEPS THE
DEPRESSION IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN FOR A
DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE
SHORT TERM. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT
AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE
ERODES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 25.6N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 25.8N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 26.4N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 27.3N 44.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 28.0N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 28.5N 44.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z 29.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI



Looks like Joyce II, so maybe three joke storms this season?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16967
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Exactly. Recon was there for quite some time, and they continuously found TS winds. Why do you keep denying Tropical Storm Helene's existence?

He's a non-believer.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
Quoting aislinnpaps:
My daughter just asked if Isaac should be able to get back into the GOM, would it still be named Isaac?


No, assuming that happened, and assuming it ever got strong enough to be named, it would have one of the names remaining on the list, since it long ago lost its tropical characteristics. It would be treated just like a new storm.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16967
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2012

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WHICH DEVELOPED FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...HAS
GRADUALLY ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER AND RELIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 25 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET A LITTLE HIGHER AT 30 KT SINCE ASCAT HAS A KNOWN LOW BIAS AND
BECAUSE THE RESOLUTION OF THE INSTRUMENT LIKELY CAN NOT RESOLVE THE
SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS.

THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY LIES BENEATH A TROUGH AXIS...WHERE THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR RELATIVELY LIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH AND THE CYCLONE MOVING IN TANDEM...WHICH KEEPS THE
DEPRESSION IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN FOR A
DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE
SHORT TERM. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT
AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE
ERODES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 25.6N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 25.8N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 26.4N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 27.3N 44.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 28.0N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 28.5N 44.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z 29.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

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Quoting wxgeek723:



Persist as in sustain for a certain period of time.

Exactly. Recon was there for quite some time, and they continuously found TS winds. Why do you keep denying Tropical Storm Helene's existence?
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Since August 1st, the day Ernesto formed, there have been only 3 full days without a tropical cyclone (August 12-14). During that time, we have seen 8 named storms, 4 of them becoming hurricanes. The strongest was Hurricane Gordon, a 110 mph 965mb storm in the Subtropical Atlantic. The weakest storm was Tropical Storm Joyce, a 40mph storm that formed on 8/22 and dissipated by 8/24.

The season still remains without a major hurricane.


I'm not sure Helene was ever stronger than Joyce, although the NHC thinks it had 45 mph winds at one point. Every season has joke storms, and Helene and Joyce were two so far this season.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16967
...SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 3
Location: 25.6°N 42.2°W
Moving: NW at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Not sure what your definition of "persist" is, since finding a sustained wind during various passes is showing persistent TS winds, and hence, proof that Helene was a Tropical Storm.



Persist as in sustain for a certain period of time. At least longer than a few hours.
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My daughter just asked if Isaac should be able to get back into the GOM, would it still be named Isaac?
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Advisory for TD 13 out.
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 42.2W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 42.1W
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting wxgeek723:


I rest my case.

What? An area of low pressure has met the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and has officially been classified as one. I see no problem there.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Since August 1st, the day Ernesto formed, there have been only 3 full days without a tropical cyclone (August 12-14). During that time, we have seen 8 named storms, 4 of them becoming hurricanes. The strongest was Hurricane Gordon, a 110 mph 965mb storm in the Subtropical Atlantic. The weakest storm was Tropical Storm Joyce, a 40mph storm that formed on 8/22 and dissipated by 8/24.

The season still remains without a major hurricane.

Yup, I think we will see a major or two in September.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 42.2W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 42.2W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 42.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.8N 42.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 26.4N 43.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 27.3N 44.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.0N 44.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 28.5N 44.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 29.5N 44.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 30.5N 44.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 42.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
Quoting MississippiWx:
Since August 1st, the day Ernesto formed, there have been only 3 full days without a tropical cyclone (August 12-14). During that time, we have seen 8 named storms, 4 of them becoming hurricanes. The strongest was Hurricane Gordon, a 110 mph 965mb storm in the Subtropical Atlantic. The weakest storm was Tropical Storm Joyce, a 40mph storm that formed on 8/22 and dissipated by 8/24.

The season still remains without a major hurricane.

Stop with your statistics and get on chat.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
Quoting wxgeek723:


Riiiiiight......
We have different opinions.
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Quoting Buhdog:
uh.... duh. I see your point now. Brainfart.


LOL, I understand. We ended up with two days off for Isaac as well and it didn't turn out bad here at all. BUT we were forecasted to have TS winds. The stall changed the timing and then it went north. School buses aren't good places to be in high winds. And you wouldn't believe how many parents will panic and run for the school to get their kids if they think the weather is going to become dangerous.
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Quoting wxgeek723:


They need to see if TS force winds PERSIST like back in the old days. Not just "OMG SUSTAINED WIND OF 43MPH LET'S NAME THIS THING NOW!!!"

Not sure what your definition of "persist" is, since finding a sustained wind during various passes is showing persistent TS winds, and hence, proof that Helene was a Tropical Storm.
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Quoting 7544:
eruo following isacc

Link



Wow. I saw that before and didn't realize it was the remnants of Isaac. Looks potent.
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Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
Greetings Dr Masters:
I hope the time you receive this email, you are enjoying excellent health. It is an honor to write and ask you, specifically you, who spent Hurricane Hugo on the island of St. Croix, on official data from NOAA, who indicate that the winds measured at the military base Roosevelt Roads, Ceiba, located in Puerto Rico, measured sustained winds of 104 mph with gusts up to 120 mph. But my question is based on the geographical location of the anemometer at the time, which measured the winds, and if the current reading from winds may have been influenced or affected by mountains, flora or other geographic feature? I spent Hurricane Hugo in Dorado Puerto Rico located in the central north coast of the island and although the winds were not as intense as shown videotapes of the northeastern part of the island, was quite strong. In addition, other factors to categorize the intensity of the damage caused by hurricane winds are not consistent with an intensity of a Category 2 hurricane, but a hurricane category 3 or maybe more. These damages were evidenced through the tops of the palm trees, which were torn by the winds, the total destruction of the wooden houses throughout the area northeast of the island, including Vieques and Culebra, and the detachment of the bark of many trees.

P.S. In addition, you and I know, which is in the public domain, that hurricane San Ciprian was promoted recently by NOAA, to a Category 4 hurricane when it crossed the island of Puerto Rico. What data after so many years since Hurricane San Ciprian, NOAA use to, officially, categorize to a category 4 hurricane as it passes over the island of Puerto Rico? Since then for only several anemometers between Roosevelt Roads and SJ (located in the weakest quadrant of Hurricane Hugo) Hugo becomes official, was category 2 when passing through PR, when evidence of damage near the area, through which pass the eyewall, do not reflect a category 2, but rather a category 3 or maybe more? Also shown in the videos is the power of these winds.

I will await your prompt reply and professional opinion about it

Sincerely,
--
KENNETH LOPEZ RODRIGUEZ


You mean the hurricane from 1932? Where did you see that this was promoted from a cat 3 to cat 4? I can't find anything about it. I can't imagine the NHC doing this.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16967
Since August 1st, the day Ernesto formed, there have been only 3 full days without a tropical cyclone (August 12-14). During that time, we have seen 8 named storms, 4 of them becoming hurricanes. The strongest was Hurricane Gordon, a 110 mph 965mb storm in the Subtropical Atlantic. The weakest storm was Tropical Storm Joyce, a 40mph storm that formed on 8/22 and dissipated by 8/24.

The season still remains without a major hurricane.
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Nice 850 vortex on our central africa wave at 10N

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341. JLPR2
Cute & little TD 13.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting allancalderini:
It was name and it should be name there is nothing you can do.all of the storms this year have been name and I agree all of them deserve to be name.


Right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
339. JLPR2
Quoting RTSplayer:


Aha!!

An major adjustment.

Just the other day somebody on here was questioning my integrity when I mentioned stuff like this!!

Once again, I am vindicated by the actual facts, even if I can't always remember them.


I really hope that's good sarcasm. :P

The little adjustment to the south is a good signal for Leslie as it will allow it to build convection closer to the LLC.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
uh.... duh. I see your point now. Brainfart.
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I meant Isaac...whoops
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


AL, 13, 2012090318, , BEST, 0, 255N, 421W, 30, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 100, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN


I rest my case.
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Quoting wxgeek723:


They need to see if TS force winds PERSIST like back in the old days. Not just "OMG SUSTAINED WIND OF 43MPH LET'S NAME THIS THING NOW!!!"
It was name and it should be name there is nothing you can do.all of the storms this year have been name and I agree all of them deserve to be name.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


???


I live in Lee and they closed schools 2 days before Ike came... Parents were working...kids had off! Silly.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

~49.86. A normal season has 37 at this point.


That is high! And we have 3 months left.
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13 depression of the year has form.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

No, it was named because aircraft recon found tropical storm force winds and a closed circulation.

While some storms (Florence, Helene and Joyce)have been short-lived, they have all met the criteria of a tropical cyclone. Not a single named storm on this so far above average season has failed to meet these criteria. The ACE for this season is above average as well; a normal season has 37 at this point, but this season is at ~50 so far. Your take on "Blink-and-you'll-miss" storms, as you call them, I do somewhat agree with, since they barely inflate ACE at all.


They need to see if TS force winds PERSIST like back in the old days. Not just "OMG SUSTAINED WIND OF 43MPH LET'S NAME THIS THING NOW!!!"
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
99L got renumbered!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al992012_al132012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209032039
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END


AL, 13, 2012090318, , BEST, 0, 255N, 421W, 30, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 100, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
329. 7544
maybe 90L soon behind lesslie ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting Buhdog:
Maybe they will close florida schools again for Ike when it comes back. Dummies.


???
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Quoting JLPR2:


Hmm...
No one mentioned this:


11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 3
Location: 24.4N 63.1W

5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 3
Location: 24.0N 63.1W

Little adjustment to the south.


Aha!!

An major adjustment.

Just the other day somebody on here was questioning my integrity when I mentioned stuff like this!!

Once again, I am vindicated by the actual facts, even if I can't always remember them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
99L got renumbered!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al992012_al132012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209032039
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END




yep


AL, 13, 2012090318, , BEST, 0, 255N, 421W, 30, 1012, LO,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Greetings Dr Masters:
I hope the time you receive this email, you are enjoying excellent health. It is an honor to write and ask you, specifically you, who spent Hurricane Hugo on the island of St. Croix, on official data from NOAA, who indicate that the winds measured at the military base Roosevelt Roads, Ceiba, located in Puerto Rico, measured sustained winds of 104 mph with gusts up to 120 mph. But my question is based on the geographical location of the anemometer at the time, which measured the winds, and if the current reading from winds may have been influenced or affected by mountains, flora or other geographic feature? I spent Hurricane Hugo in Dorado Puerto Rico located in the central north coast of the island and although the winds were not as intense as shown videotapes of the northeastern part of the island, was quite strong. In addition, other factors to categorize the intensity of the damage caused by hurricane winds are not consistent with an intensity of a Category 2 hurricane, but a hurricane category 3 or maybe more. These damages were evidenced through the tops of the palm trees, which were torn by the winds, the total destruction of the wooden houses throughout the area northeast of the island, including Vieques and Culebra, and the detachment of the bark of many trees.

P.S. In addition, you and I know, which is in the public domain, that hurricane San Ciprian was promoted recently by NOAA, to a Category 4 hurricane when it crossed the island of Puerto Rico. What data after so many years since Hurricane San Ciprian, NOAA use to, officially, categorize to a category 4 hurricane as it passes over the island of Puerto Rico? Since then for only several anemometers between Roosevelt Roads and SJ (located in the weakest quadrant of Hurricane Hugo) Hugo becomes official, was category 2 when passing through PR, when evidence of damage near the area, through which pass the eyewall, do not reflect a category 2, but rather a category 3 or maybe more? Also shown in the videos is the power of these winds.

I will await your prompt reply and professional opinion about it

Sincerely,
--
KENNETH LOPEZ RODRIGUEZ
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Latest Euro looks like Leslie strong and passing to the west of Bermuda on Sunday.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Isaac is still well inland.

And you got me there, to me it seems a bit difficult for Isaac's remnants to head into Florida, maybe a piece of energy related to it.

Well, something strange is happening. It's only 84 degrees here now and the air is relatively stable, yet we keep getting lines of storms popping up for nowhwere. If you look at the regional radar, you can see the same thing happening in Georgia and the Carolinas. They really do like outer rainbands from a tropical system.

Edit: We were just put under a tornado watch until 2300 CDT. Yep, something strange is happening. We never have tornado watches extending until that late at night when it's not tornado season.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16967
Maybe they will close florida schools again for Ike when it comes back. Dummies.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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