Disorganized Leslie headed towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center is fully exposed to view, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
A small extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic, near 26°N 42°W, (Invest 99L), is headed west at 10 mph, and has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sar2401:


"Could" is different than "likely". As I've said before, if frogs had wings, they could fly. :)


I would expect more of a "hop and glide" mechanic.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
No comments about off topic Taz? Or is it just me you want to mess with?
Please don't make it personal on here...
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Quoting LargoFl:
looks like isaac wants to go right into tampa bay huh
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Where is all the old time bloggers? Levi, Drak, Stormchaser07, ect. Glad to see Pat is back after Isaac, is Koritheman back too? He lives in LA as well. Isaac took out quite a few people's internet connection and such on here it appears.
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No comments about off topic Taz? Or is it just me you want to mess with?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Who's freaking out?...



Uh oh, is that one of those "meme" things I've been reading about.....? :)
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Guys on a sad note, just heard on the news the 6th person has died in NOLA, a 90 year old man found dead, not from the flooding, but from the heat and no power for the a/c...
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Quoting Tazmanian:



it could happen


"Could" is different than "likely". As I've said before, if frogs had wings, they could fly. :)
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Quoting sar2401:


Not you, Teddy, but some people really saying some ridiculous things about the impacts of a major hurricane on Bermuda. It will be bad enough, if it happens, without some of the "predictions" I've read here.
I'm not predicting a major... A borderline Category 1/2 my my guess.
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Quoting Grothar:
The EMCWF is showing the remnants of Isaac moving into Western Florida and Leslie still there very powerful.



Gro whats your best bet with issac..tropical storm at best?
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:



Ghost of Ivan?

No, the Ghost of the Ghost of Ivan.
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Quoting Grothar:
The EMCWF is showing the remnants of Isaac moving into Western Florida and Leslie still there very powerful.





Ghost of Ivan?
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.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting sar2401:


No, it hasn't happened in the history of Bermuda, at least since 1604, when a hurricane actually forced the first white men ashore. Bermuda is very small compared to the size of a cat4/cat5 hurricane. Even if, somehow, the storm managed to park itself over the island for 24 hours, the placement would have to be exactly right to have Bermuda be on the worst quadrant of the hurricane for severe damage, and even that would be mostly structural and infrastrucure. Unless you can point me to a hurricane that completely flattened Bermuda, leaving nothing but dirt and rocks, you are doomcasting, and scaring people with nothing but your own rather bizarre opinon.



Also: Storm surges tend to go around islands as opposed to piling up like they do on the mainland. There is still a surge but generally not as high.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


We are being real. No one is shouting out "OMG LESLIE WILL BE CATEGORY 5!!!!111", we're just commenting and observing the European model - which is notorious for over bombing the intensity.

I think the GFS has the best handle with the intensity, 963mb. Low end Category 3 is the best bet at this moment.


Not you, Teddy, but some people really saying some ridiculous things about the impacts of a major hurricane on Bermuda. It will be bad enough, if it happens, without some of the "predictions" I've read here.
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Anybody else watch Channel 5 news in WPB...not that I was watching them for the tropics report but Kate Whateverhernameis comes on and says "we have a new tropical system in the Atlantic, TD 13" and they show the graphic and the area they had circled for TD 13 was the wave at 12/37...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting GTcooliebai:
End of the run, *caution* 16 days out, so don't freak out it's likely to change a million times:

JFV finally gets his storm.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17799
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


if she stalls for 24 hrs
with sustain C4 winds for the duration
there will be nothing left that i can assure you always expect a once in a lifetime event
it has happen before it will happen again
its merely a matter of time


No, it hasn't happened in the history of Bermuda, at least since 1604, when a hurricane actually forced the first white men ashore. Bermuda is very small compared to the size of a cat4/cat5 hurricane. Even if, somehow, the storm managed to park itself over the island for 24 hours, the placement would have to be exactly right to have Bermuda be on the worst quadrant of the hurricane for severe damage, and even that would be mostly structural and infrastrucure. Unless you can point me to a hurricane that completely flattened Bermuda, leaving nothing but dirt and rocks, you are doomcasting, and scaring people with nothing but your own rather bizarre opinon.
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Quoting ncstorm:
18z Nogaps heads for the midatlantic and then takes a hard right turn at the last minute..
Thanks forgot the NOGAPS runs on 06z and 18z.
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Quoting wxgeek723:
Guys come on Leslie a category 5. Let's be real here...


We are being real. No one is shouting out "OMG LESLIE WILL BE CATEGORY 5!!!!111", we're just commenting and observing the European model - which is notorious for over bombing the intensity.

I think the GFS has the best handle with the intensity, 963mb. Low end Category 3 is the best bet at this moment.
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End of the run, *caution* 16 days out, so don't freak out it's likely to change a million times:

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Quoting ncstorm:
18z Nogaps heads for the midatlantic and then takes a hard right turn at the last minute..
That means Leslie will be coming for meh!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17799
Quoting wxgeek723:
Guys come on Leslie a category 5. Let's be real here...



it could happen
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting aspectre:
198 Walshy: Global warming.

At least get what you're arguing against right.
The consensus between the Gray faction and the Emanuel faction on the effect of ClimateChange on Hurricanes ended up being fewer hurricanes but more powerful hurricanes. If the NHC were padding the numbers, they'd hafta be conspiring against AnthropogenicGlobalWarmingTheory.

Then again, the parameters defining the NewNormal may not be as predictable as Gray&Emanuel had hoped.



I don't think "Fewer but stronger" will hold true.

1, AGW will broaden the basin area in which hurricanes can form.

2, AGW will lengthen the hurricane season over existing areas.

3, Because the poles and mid-latitudes are supposed to warm faster than the tropics, this will decrease thermodynamic potential between the equator and poles, which will actually decrease shear and the strength of steering, particularly regarding re-curving of storms. The result of this is that MDR storms will persistently track west, while high latitude storms like Gordon will persistently track eastward.




This is my take on it, and obviously there will be exceptions, but since AGW's blanket effect and Albedo feedback effects will warm the poles faster, then it's obvious that the N/S component of troughs and fronts' winds will be weaker, thus reducing shear and steering...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Grothar:
The EMCWF is showing the remnants of Isaac moving into Western Florida and Leslie still there very powerful.





Finally getting to Tampa...
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


So sad to die that young. I thought he was amazing in Green Mile.


He was also in 'The Finder', which I really liked. I've heard they are cancelling the show. :(
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Well I forgot all about Ophelia last year.So can you Mr corrector's delete my response you quoted?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17799
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:

Link
Yes 1932
The Atlantic Tracks File is an ASCII (text) file containing the 6-hourly (0000, 0600, 1200, 1800 UTC) center locations (latitude and longitude in tenths of degrees) and intensities (maximum 1-minute surface wind speeds in knots and minimum central pressures in millibars) for all Tropical Storms and Hurricanes from 1851 through 2002. More information on this file is found in NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC 22 "A Tropical Cyclone Data Tape for the North Atlantic Basin, 1886-1983: Contents, Limitations, and Uses" by Brian R. Jarvinen, Charles J. Neumann, and Mary A. S. Davis.

It weakens to cat 3 hurricane as it moved over the island, but when it made landfall it was classified as cat 4


Not that it really matters at this point in time, but that ASCII text file appears to show the hurricane as cat 4 just before landfall and cat 3 after landfall. Since landfall occured between the 0000z and 0600z fixes, it's certainly a possiblity it could have been a cat 4, but we're only talking about the difference between 125 mph and 130 mph. I guess I'm not sure what your point is, unless bumping it up 5 mph really makes any difference, except for being a footnote in hurricane history.
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Guys come on Leslie a category 5. Let's be real here...
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Quoting NasBahMan:


This would not happen. If Bermuda got hit with a Cat 4 there would be severe damage to vegetation, major structural damage would only occur to structures that were low lying and on the immediate coast. Very few structure set back from the coast would be destroyed however there would be some structural failure of roofs but even these will be minimal. Maximum loses would be around US $300 million with US $100 million in insured loses, US $100 million in uninsured losses and US $100 million in infrastructure damages.


if she stalls for 24 hrs
with sustain C4 winds for the duration
there will be nothing left that i can assure you always expect a once in a lifetime event
it has happen before it will happen again
its merely a matter of time
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
Isaac is not done with Florida.Round two with them.He must really hate ya'll.Only adding more insult to injury.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17799
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Why? If TD13 becomes Michael then we only have two more to go until the O storm. Chances are we'll have at least 3 named storms this month.


And also we had the O storm in September last year.
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Quoting Grothar:


Not much. If anything I am watching the remnants of Isaac, Leslie (could be interesting) and the wave off the African coast.


As you know...Miami NWS long term brings Isaac's remnants back into the GOM and once again brings Florida a very wet weekend. Do you see this as a possibility?
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Quoting windshear1993:
omggg how do you post pictures
Right click on the image. Copy properties and paste in the comment section where it says image. Post comment.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The last time we had the "O" storm in September was 2005.Is it possible this year?.Perhaps.But I seriously have my doubts.


Why? If TD13 becomes Michael then we only have two more to go until the O storm. Chances are we'll have at least 3 named storms this month.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


How long have you been watching this?


Katrina had dominant wave heights of 17 METERS, over 50ft.


Ivan may have had an isolated wave over the central Gulf which was as high as 90feet, based on a damage report on a oil platform.


Since 2003, but I didn't have all the fancy gizmos then.

I'll fix my post to say, I have never seen it over such a large area on that particular map. Waves extend all the way from Virgina to the islands. That's amazing.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
264 hrs.



That is the wave now in Central Africa.
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The EMCWF is showing the remnants of Isaac moving into Western Florida and Leslie still there very powerful.



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
217 Walshy: They want it to be above their predictions. They want to see the trend in more storms in the 20th century. They want to link it to global warming. They want to public to hear the words "the hurricane season ended above average and above forecast".

If you're gonna argue that NHC's inflating storm numbers, at least get what you're arguing against right.
Consensus between the Gray and Emanuel factions on the Effect of ClimateChange on Hurricanes ended up becoming fewer hurricanes but more powerful hurricanes.
If NHC were padding numbers, they'd hafta be conspiring against AnthropogenicGlobalWarmingTheory.
Then again...
...the parameters defining the NewNormal may not be as predictable as Gray&Emanuel had hoped.
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How many models are showing possible development in the gulf? And where is it showing it going?
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Quoting MahFL:


A Cat2 won't do much to Bermuda, they have very strict building codes.



We in the US have become our own worst enemy for preparing for hurricanes.

I worked with many people trying to get a mortgage to build a house and the ONLY consideration was how many square feet it was.

Mortgages are based on a house “meeting code”. Most people don’t understand that meeting code is the absolute minimum you can do. If you meet code and use hurricane clips on every third truss your roof will blow away. If you put clips one every truss your roof will stay but you won’t be able to get a loan as the cost per square foot will be out of line. This line of thought goes into the entire house.

Finical institutions simply don’t consider structure quality when making loan decisions! Square feet only.

Building entire city 22 feet below sea level in a hurricane prone location might just be foolish too….
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Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17799
Quoting washingtonian115:
What do you think about the wave in the central Atlantic?.I know the models don't develop it.But I still think it has a chance.


Not much. If anything I am watching the remnants of Isaac, Leslie (could be interesting) and the wave off the African coast.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
525. beell
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey beell... as in shearing something, or being sheared?


Perhaps a little of both.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
Quoting NasBahMan:


This would not happen. If Bermuda got hit with a Cat 4 there would be severe damage to vegetation, major structural damage would only occur to structures that were low lying and on the immediate coast. Very few structure set back from the coast would be destroyed however there would be some structural failure of roofs but even these will be minimal. Maximum loses would be around US $300 million with US $100 million in insured loses, US $100 million in uninsured losses and US $100 million in infrastructure damages.


It's a beautiful island. I worry how would main street fare with it so close to the water.
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Quoting barbamz:


Right, Gro. Next week I'll check the situation at the Med personally when I go to Italy for vacation (Toscana). But before that of course I dare to see what will happen with Leslie.


Ah, they speak nice Italian there, almost like singing.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
264 hrs.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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