Disorganized Leslie headed towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center is fully exposed to view, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
A small extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic, near 26°N 42°W, (Invest 99L), is headed west at 10 mph, and has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is a solution indicated by the GFS and ECMWF, and a plausible solution at that. I would watch for tropical development in 3-5 days.


Imagine if Issac becomes Tropical again and makes Landfall in Tampa Heading SE.

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Quoting sar2401:


No, it hasn't happened in the history of Bermuda, at least since 1604, when a hurricane actually forced the first white men ashore. Bermuda is very small compared to the size of a cat4/cat5 hurricane. Even if, somehow, the storm managed to park itself over the island for 24 hours, the placement would have to be exactly right to have Bermuda be on the worst quadrant of the hurricane for severe damage, and even that would be mostly structural and infrastrucure. Unless you can point me to a hurricane that completely flattened Bermuda, leaving nothing but dirt and rocks, you are doomcasting, and scaring people with nothing but your own rather bizarre opinon.
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LESLIE RGB Loop to Night IR
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From HurricaneCity:


"Bermuda's hurricane past


1989 Aug 6th,Hurricane Dean hits from the south with 95mph winds
1995 Aug 15th,hurricane Felix with 80mph winds brushes 75 miles to the S.W from the SSE area had gusts to 75mph press 28.47 .
2001 Oct 12th substropical storm Karen hits before becoming tropical with sustained winds on Bermuda of 60mph with gusts to 100mph. System caused power outages 23,000 without power,trees down & a cruise ship to break it's moorings.Very high winds recorded for over 24 hrs.Karen would later become a hurricane while moving away
2003 Sept 5th Hurricane Fabian hits with 120mph winds while moving NNE at 18mph. Roof damage,many trees down, windows blown in. 4 swept to sea & 3 fisherman drowned. Eastern Eyewall hits island hard,weather instruments disabled. Unofficial gusts to 130mph. Over 300 Million dollars damage (US). Bermuda Harbor Radio gust to 143 kts. Hurricanecity live coverage at landfall
2006 Sept 11th, Hurricane Florence passes approx 50 to 60 miles west while moving NNE with 90 mph winds causing minor damage with gusts to 90mph on the island. A few minor injuries occured with power outages.An automated observing station (elevation 157ft) reported sustained winds of 82mph with a gust to 112mph. A high gust of 115mph was recorded at the Bermuda maritime operations centre.Interview with resident | webcam animation
2010 Sept 19th Hurricane Igor passes just west with 75mph winds causing power outages over much of the island. Gust of 93 mph reported. Igor model history"

Link
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The active era began in 1995.So it's nothing new...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17599
Leslie Rainbow Loop dee Loop

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Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Any news on the storm in the Mediterranean Sea?


Go back to page 8 post 394 and the following page 9 please. I'm too tired to repeat and going to sleep now, lol. Have a good night, all!
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Are there any Web Cams in Bermuda?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is a solution indicated by the GFS and ECMWF, and a plausible solution at that. I would watch for tropical development in 3-5 days.


Thanks, I was just hoping she was just being pretty and misinformed! LOL Will keep an eye on things and keep up with the blog for more info.
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Consider this:

Intensity:
Five of the eleven most intense hurricanes on record have happened in the past 8 years, six in the past 14 years.

There are sub-900mb storms for A, G, R, and W since the modern naming convention was adopted.

2 of the five sub-900 storms happened in the same year, 2005. 3 of them happened in my lifetime, and a 4th the year I was born, but before my birthday.

Hyperactivity:
Six of the ten most active hurricane seasons happened in my lifetime.

Five of the top ten were in the past decade.

Twelve of the top twenty seasons happened in my lifetime, nine since 2000.

That's right. Nine of the top 20 most active seasons happened in a 12 year span (can't count this year yet, but we may squeeze in 10 in a 13 year span).


Statistcally, you should only have one of the top ten most active seasons about once every twelve years, we've had five in ten years, but only one in the previous twenty years, indicating hyperactivity has increased very recently.* All of this is far above statistical mean.


Note that the hyperactive years in the past 20 years can be correlated to something...go look at an ice melt graph...

2000 15
2001 15
2003 16
2004 15
2005 28
2007 15
2008 16
2010 19
2011 19


We are probably having either the third or fourth most active half-season, since 2005 had both the first and second most active half-seasons on record.


On Number of Hurricanes:

4 or the top 10 seasons are in the past 17 years, which is far above the statistical mean, you'd expect 1 or 2.

On number of majors:

3 of the top 8 seasons are in the past 16 years. You'd expect only 1...

ACE:
4 of the top 10 in the past 17 years, again you'd expect only 1 or 2...

Diameter:

All of the top 11 happened in the past 24 years. You'd expect maybe 2 or 3.

6 of the top 11 happened in the past 12 years. You'd expect maybe 1 or 2...


Translation:

Not only are hurricanes becoming larger and more intense at maximums, but they are also becoming more frequent, on average.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
Anyone with any info on possible remnants of Isaac reforming in Gulf next weekend? I saw weather lady Kate (who?) at 6pm show a model of remnants dropping down and something possibly forming. Am heading to Orlando Fri-Sun with daughter, son in law and grandkids for sun and fun. Any truth to this possibility? Thanks you all.


Don't know about truth, but there is at least one model that shows the low that was Isaac moving south in front of a strong cold front coming down from Canada. Even if this happens, there's no reason to think the low will be more than a low, so enjoy yourself.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



did bermuda sink some? or some in ?


not yet
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Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
Anyone with any info on possible remnants of Isaac reforming in Gulf next weekend? I saw weather lady Kate (who?) at 6pm show a model of remnants dropping down and something possibly forming. Am heading to Orlando Fri-Sun with daughter, son in law and grandkids for sun and fun. Any truth to this possibility? Thanks you all.

It is a solution indicated by the GFS and ECMWF, and a plausible solution at that. I would watch for tropical development in 3-5 days.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:





did bermuda sink some? or some in ?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I have noticed that they're all developing in one two punches.

Alberto, then as soon as Alberto dies - Beryl forms.
Chris, then as soon as Chris died, Debby formed.
Ernesto, then Florence.
Gordon, then Helene.
Isaac, then Joyce.
Kirk, then Leslie.

Pretty soon it will be Michael and Nadine:)
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Any news on the storm in the Mediterranean Sea?
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Anyone with any info on possible remnants of Isaac reforming in Gulf next weekend? I saw weather lady Kate (who?) at 6pm show a model of remnants dropping down and something possibly forming. Am heading to Orlando Fri-Sun with daughter, son in law and grandkids for sun and fun. Any truth to this possibility? Thanks you all.
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At the time the ECMWF has a pressure of 914 millibars, it shows Leslie with maximum sustained winds of 120 knots (140 mph). Seems reasonable to me. That's what I've been predicted for the past few days anyways.
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First, poor Bermuda. . . but at least the construction there is far better than many other small island countries. Hope no one gets hurt.

Second, and albeit a long shot, it's the old "here we go again". The on and off again storm the GFS (18z) has heading through the Caribbean and now up into FL. 00z run may not even forecast it. But, not really that unbelievable given the time of year, and the accuracy the gfs has been this year. Still, 384 hours out.
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Quoting LargoFl:
its thursday..
Thanks!! An observation made while looking for this currently non-existent weather is what appears to be just a faint ull just north of the western tip of Cuba.Could that be what developes later in the week?
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599. SLU

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Quoting Patrap:


Louisiana Major Disaster Declaration Amended to Include Individual Assistance

08/31/2012 06:06 PM EDT

WASHINGTON – Today, FEMA announced an amendment to the major disaster declaration for the State of Louisiana to include the Individual Assistance Program.

Federal funding is available to affected individuals in Jefferson, Plaquemines, St. Bernard, St. John the Baptist, and St. Tammany parishes. Assistance can include grants for temporary housing and home repairs, and uninsured property losses, and other programs to help individuals and households recover from the effects of the disaster.
those poor people are going to be needing alot of help for sure
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Louisiana Major Disaster Declaration Amended to Include Individual Assistance

08/31/2012 06:06 PM EDT

WASHINGTON – Today, FEMA announced an amendment to the major disaster declaration for the State of Louisiana to include the Individual Assistance Program.

Federal funding is available to affected individuals in Jefferson, Plaquemines, St. Bernard, St. John the Baptist, and St. Tammany parishes. Assistance can include grants for temporary housing and home repairs, and uninsured property losses, and other programs to help individuals and households recover from the effects of the disaster.
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Quoting SLU:
The 12Z ECMWF turns a struggling Leslie into a 914mb "supercane" near Bermuda in 7 days.

Leslie could be around for 3 weeks.She is not going no where anytime soon.Nooooooooo!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17599
notice the wide track bubble..low confidence alright
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Quoting sar2401:


No, it hasn't happened in the history of Bermuda, at least since 1604, when a hurricane actually forced the first white men ashore. Bermuda is very small compared to the size of a cat4/cat5 hurricane. Even if, somehow, the storm managed to park itself over the island for 24 hours, the placement would have to be exactly right to have Bermuda be on the worst quadrant of the hurricane for severe damage, and even that would be mostly structural and infrastrucure. Unless you can point me to a hurricane that completely flattened Bermuda, leaving nothing but dirt and rocks, you are doomcasting, and scaring people with nothing but your own rather bizarre opinon.


well iam not doomcasting

i hope iam wrong
and you don't have
too eat your words
we shall see

myself expecting a 3 if that

and as for entire islands being stripped clean it has happen before maybe not too bermuda itself but it has occurred in the past and it will occur in the future
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593. SLU
The 12Z ECMWF turns a struggling Leslie into a 914mb "supercane" near Bermuda in 7 days.

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President speaking in Laplace.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11512
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This is an excerpt from the latest discussion from the NWS in Taunton, MA... Very low confidence at this point.

THU-MON...
LOW RISK OF A DIURNAL FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS THU THRU SAT IN RESPONSE TO
A LEFTOVER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY. THEN ALL EYES TURN TO TS
LESLIE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LARGE DIFFERENCES ON
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS AND NA WHICH LEADS TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING THE TRACK OF LESLIE. AT THE VERY LEAST
LARGE SURF WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS AND OCEAN
BEACHES DURING THIS TIME
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
Quoting seer2012:
I don't see that on local radar(Lakeland)
its thursday..
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Quoting ncstorm:
Hey Florida..latest HPC update

yes we could stand some rain now, we had a dry week after isaac passed by here around tampa bay..south florida dont need any more gee
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Quoting LargoFl:
I don't see that on local radar(Lakeland)
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Quoting LargoFl:


Ghost of Issac.....

Issac the terminator.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



yep BOOM


looks like the center went back in


Yup...
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
And BOOM...



yep BOOM


looks like the center went back in


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
Hey Florida..latest HPC update

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Guys guys... I find that if we are to get a category 5, Leslie has as good a chance as many cyclones. A storm reaching that intensity nearly never happens without any sort of bombing out/rapid intensification. I find that most storms have to go through some sort of EWRC, or the environment gets to them, before they can even reach that sort of lofty intensification.

What I'm saying is, if Leslie's going to reach category 5, she will because she WILL hit entirely favourable conditions and do just that. Rarely is any storm actually predicted to reach 5, and if they are, it's even more rare that they reach it. Too many ingredients have to mix under just the right conditions for it to happen as predicted.

The only thing predictable about nature is its unpredictability. We've been sorely reminded of that this year, last year, 2005, and every other year around them.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 617
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Well I guess at the very least more rain on the way.
yeah we must watch isaac, thurs thru friday
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Consider it dropped.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



why cant you this learn too be quit for once and move on with your bloging and i move on too my bloging


am in joying my PM on the blog



you all have too breing up things will start nothing but fights why not you this be quit and go about your bloging
And BOOM...
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The water is warm,
but it's sending me shivers.
A baby is born,
crying out for attention.
Memories fade,
like looking through a fogged mirror
Decision to decisions are made and not bought
But I thought,
this wouldn't hurt a lot.
I guess not.


Control yourself,
Take only what you need from them..

Louisiana man rescues cat named Lovey and daughter's bridesmaid's dress from his Hurricane Isaac flooded home


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Quoting LargoFl:
looks like isaac wants to go right into tampa bay huh
Well I guess at the very least more rain on the way.
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
554 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
PERRY COUNTY IN ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 553 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF GREENSBORO...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARION...VAIDEN...FOLSOM...JUDSON COLLEGE...VAIDEN FIELD AIRPORT...
HAMBURG AND RADFORD.

WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BREAK LARGE TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE SOME
DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO SMALLER STRUCTURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.



A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
No comments about off topic Taz? Or is it just me you want to mess with?



why cant you this learn too be quit for once and move on with your bloging and i move on too my bloging


am in joying my PM on the blog



you all have too breing up things will start nothing but fights why not you this be quit and go about your bloging
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
Quoting Patrap:
Well the FRESCA truck left 6 cases

: )
hiya pat, good to see you posting again..missed ya
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Well the FRESCA truck left 6 cases

: )
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Quoting sar2401:


"Could" is different than "likely". As I've said before, if frogs had wings, they could fly. :)


I would expect more of a "hop and glide" mechanic.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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