Disorganized Leslie headed towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center is fully exposed to view, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
A small extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic, near 26°N 42°W, (Invest 99L), is headed west at 10 mph, and has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Bermuda has some very strict building codes. They'll be ok.
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Quoting flcanes:

i didn't even know there was a td13

wow...
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 1634
Swells building here in Bermuda. Up to 10ft I would say. I am still thinking this thing will bypass us by a good distance.
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It's only about a half dozen or so steps down to board the ferry.
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Per ECMWF is something does form in the GOMEX it will be Nadine, not Isaac (or Michael, if TD13 fails to become named)
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Quoting flcanes:

lol
that makes future gulf storm either isaac or nadine, and the next to waves oscar and patty, or nadine and oscar

Definitely getting very active in these parts, still 3 more months to go.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Quoting palmettobug53:
Hamilton is not very high above sea level.

how high
less than 20 feet will scare the bejebbers out of them
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Quoting unknowncomic:
Precisely. Bermuda is ready as anywhere. They know the drill.


See my post 648.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh yeah forgot about that.

He is such a tiny storm unless you are looking for him you wouldn't even know he is out there.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886


Side note:

Since yesterday, a well structured cold-core low looped cyclonically atop Corsica and is currently situated roughly at 4030' N and 8-9 E, featuring an E-W elongated center. Also, mid-tropospheric vortex built downwards and 19Z ASCAT scan featured a 15-20 kt surface depression just to the NW of Sardinia which moved east/southeastwards since then. A 30-35 kt surface wind maximum along its northern/western fringe is not correlated with the organizing surface circulation but exists rather due to a channeled gradient flow. Just before landfall over N-Sardinia, DMC increased in strength and organization next to the center but decreased markedly after landfall. An increase in DMC was noted along the northern/northeastern fringe due to increasing LL convergence.

During the start of the forecast period, the depression's center should emerge off of Sardinia into the N-Tyrrhenian Sea and therefore further to the north than most models indicated 24 h ago. However, due to the asymmetric and elongated circulation center and movement atop the rough orography of Sardinia, uncertainties still exist if the center may reform a bit more to the south. Anyhow, this motion brings the depression's center atop an anticyclonic eddy with SSTs of 27-28 C / positive SST anomalies of 2-3 K and good heat content. As the cyclonic vortex is not yet vertically stacked, some slow eastward motion is still expected with a more or less quasi-stationary motion over the far NE Tyrrhenian Sea during the end of the forecast. At that time, SSTs decrease by roughly 3K. Despite a gradual warming trend of the mid-/upper level vortex and an increase of the geopotential heights as a response of the more zonal flow pattern over N-Europe, background environment remains supportive of a temporarily confined core modification. DLS is already weak and continues to weaken with some weak upper divergence forecast.

A lot depends on the final track of the depression, but confidence increases that a subtropical cyclone may evolve between Sardinia and C-Italy during the forecast. Still a few high resolution models indicate moderate to rapid intensification and is was noted that overall model tendency approached the shallow warm core phase in FSU phase diagrams. Surrounding sounding data also confirm a decrease of the dry slot strength and ongoing moistening, so overall environmental conditions seem supportive for strengthening/organization. An intensity forecast is hard to create due to

a) proximity to the islands/Italy
b) potential infiltration of more stable stratified, rain cooled air from N-C Italy during the forecast
c) uncertainty how strong/persisting convergence and DMC east of Corsica may affect the development of the depression's center and attendant banding structure

Especially in case of the depression's motion atop the warm eddy, we would not rule out a ST 2.5 classification, which would equal 35-40 kt . In any case, the feature will be closely monitored during the following 24 hours.

http://www.estofex.org/

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Hamilton is not very high above sea level.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh yeah forgot about that.

i didn't even know there was a td13
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Quoting sar2401:


Yes. Bermuda is not some flat Pacific atoll. It's mostly limestone with a ridge running down the center of the main island The highest point is Town Hill, at 76 feet. As I said before, Bermuda survived an almost direct hit from Fabian, a strong cat 3, in 2003. It caused some structural and vegetation damage, but anyone who's been there since 2003 can see that the island has recovered just fine. Enough with the "Bermuda is going to be swept clean" talk.
Precisely. Bermuda is ready as anywhere. They know the drill.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I will get him in a minute...




LOL now thats funny
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3040
Quoting wxchaser97:
Maybe TD 13 could become Michael at 11pm EDT.

lol
that makes future gulf storm either isaac or nadine, and the next to waves oscar and patty, or nadine and oscar
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Maybe TD 13 could become Michael at 11pm EDT.
Oh yeah forgot about that.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
656. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


If it does "reform" from remnants, is it Isaac again, or Son of Isaac, or Isaac Part 2, Nadine or We Don't Know What the Heck to Call It....just hunker down and ride it out! LOL


It's only partial remnants + some trough & depending on the model~ maybe some of that ULL slowly trying to deepen over the Bahamas. Definitely a new invest # & name. Unless it stays just a blob then it will probably get a title like Isaac Reprise, Son of..or something..
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https://www.facebook.com/AdquiriendoConocimientoSob reHaarpYSusPracticas

Join us!!!!
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Quoting sar2401:


Yes. Bermuda is not some flat Pacific atoll. It's mostly limestone with a ridge running down the center of the main island The highest point is Town Hill, at 76 feet. As I said before, Bermuda survived an almost direct hit from Fabian, a strong cat 3, in 2003. It caused some structural and vegetation damage, but anyone who's been there since 2003 can see that the island has recovered just fine. Enough with the "Bermuda is going to be swept clean" talk.

how far above sea level is the capitol. cause this could cause cat3 or above surge
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Maybe TD 13 could become Michael at 11pm EDT.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Quoting washingtonian115:
And you have a chance to be on my very special list if you keep instigating.. Here comes hype master in full force licking his chops.He can't even control himself.What?.Next he's gonna say it's coming to NYC.Lol.

bastardi, bastardi, bastardi
he makes me laugh
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


does Bermuda have any high terrain to stop surf..or from this super hurricane waves can go across the island...

Bermuda is in major trouble...


Yes. Bermuda is not some flat Pacific atoll. It's mostly limestone with a ridge running down the center of the main island The highest point is Town Hill, at 76 feet. As I said before, Bermuda survived an almost direct hit from Fabian, a strong cat 3, in 2003. It caused some structural and vegetation damage, but anyone who's been there since 2003 can see that the island has recovered just fine. Enough with the "Bermuda is going to be swept clean" talk.
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..earlier

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Leslie

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

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RE: the discussion of Bermuda and hurricane damage.

I was in Bermuda in Nov 2007 and was amazed at how hurricane resistant the homes were. Note: The key word here is 'resistant.'

Bermuda is nothing but a big, limestone rock. Houses have stone walls and roofs. I saw NO houses with shingle. If anyone is prepared to come out the other side of a hurricane in pretty much one piece, Bermuda is.

Houses there are required by law be able to withstand winds of 100+ mph.

IMHO, the capitol, Hamilton, may sustain the most damage from a storm, as construction there is more modern; there are more multistory buildings, with more windows in them. Outside Hamilton, it's a different story. I saw only one and two story homes and they tend to nestle down to the ground.

Architecture of Bermuda

I have a couple of shots of the houses in my photo gallery or you can ask Uncle Google.
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Quoting flcanes:

well, not every season is according to recent trends take 1984 for example


1984 occurred in an era from 1970-1994 of overall slower activity

again there are seasons' in that timeframe that were active
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
Quoting unknowncomic:
You have a chance to experience a hurricane. You can hop a flight to Bermuda.
And you have a chance to be on my very special list if you keep instigating..
Quoting ncstorm:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Gasp... ECMWF 192. Scariest is that if upper low captures Leslie.. wow! pic.twitter.com/rUIaKw2q

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
ECMWF/UKMET/CGEM all in line with weatherbell track similar to Eduoard in 1996 with Leslie. Believe GFS is missing this pic.twitter.com/aBV9D1ca

(dont kill the messenger)
Here comes hype master in full force licking his chops.He can't even control himself.What?.Next he's gonna say it's coming to NYC.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
Quoting flcanes:

what
never mind
( goes back to lurking)


well Grothar follows the euro closely and i cant access it on this Wii
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3040
active.era.began.for.the.atlantic.late.94..gordon.. .it.was.predicted.then
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Quoting washingtonian115:
No 1997 wasn't active.But the era for active hurricane season's began in 1995 :).Just ask the scientist and Doc.The last decade had some slow season in it like 2002,2006,and 2009.So no.It's not a "bunch of bull crap"

yep
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Quoting unknowncomic:
You have a chance to experience a hurricane. You can hop a flight to Bermuda.

lol
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Quoting K8eCane:
GROTHAR are you here? please materialize. i have a question

what
never mind
( goes back to lurking)
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Isaac is not done with Florida.Round two with them.He must really hate ya'll.Only adding more insult to injury.
You have a chance to experience a hurricane. You can hop a flight to Bermuda.
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bermuda.fortified...just.like.taiwan...marine.threa t.mainly
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


an active era can still have a few slow seasons in it

the active era did in fact being in 1995

well, not every season is according to recent trends take 1984 for example
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GROTHAR are you here? please materialize. i have a question
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3040
Leslie put her clothes back on, I see...Hopefully she's not looking to party.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


well iam not doomcasting

i hope iam wrong
and you don't have
too eat your words
we shall see

myself expecting a 3 if that

and as for entire islands being stripped clean it has happen before maybe not too bermuda itself but it has occurred in the past and it will occur in the future


Tell you what...$50 to Portlight if I'm wong and Bermuda is flattened. $50 to Portlight if I'm right, which means cat 1, minimal cat 2, and it misses Bermuda by at least 50 miles to the west.

You on?
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Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


If it does "reform" from remnants, is it Isaac again, or Son of Isaac, or Isaac Part 2, Nadine or We Don't Know What the Heck to Call It....just hunker down and ride it out! LOL
It does not look like it will much of anything, other than a rain maker. . . according to local mets. Hardly need to hunker down.
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In 1995 Hurricane Luis pommeled St. Maarten for more than 24 hours moving at 8 mph with 130 mph winds for almost 36 hours. The damage was horrendous. Yes a Cat5 can pick an island clean. I never want to live through such an event again in my life. Had know idea that weather could be that violent. It did leave me with a fascination for hurricanes though.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

So what you're saying, is that 1997 was active?
Bullcrap.


an active era can still have a few slow seasons in it

the active era did in fact being in 1995
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
Im gonna get wet...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Imagine if Issac becomes Tropical again and makes Landfall in Tampa Heading SE.

The forecast for the Tampa area's weekend calls for 50% rain chances. So a small low pressure area drifting through is not out the question.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Imagine if Issac becomes Tropical again and makes Landfall in Tampa Heading SE.



If it does "reform" from remnants, is it Isaac again, or Son of Isaac, or Isaac Part 2, Nadine or We Don't Know What the Heck to Call It....just hunker down and ride it out! LOL
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LESLIE NOAA Floater
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Quoting SLU:
The 12Z ECMWF turns a struggling Leslie into a 914mb "supercane" near Bermuda in 7 days.



does Bermuda have any high terrain to stop surf..or from this super hurricane waves can go across the island...

Bermuda is in major trouble...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Gasp... ECMWF 192. Scariest is that if upper low captures Leslie.. wow! pic.twitter.com/rUIaKw2q

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
ECMWF/UKMET/CGEM all in line with weatherbell track similar to Eduoard in 1996 with Leslie. Believe GFS is missing this pic.twitter.com/aBV9D1ca

(dont kill the messenger)
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The active era began in 1995.So it's nothing new...

So what you're saying, is that 1997 was active?
Bullcrap.
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 1634
Nonsense.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The people that think the National Hurricane Center names cyclones just to pad their numbers are...not intelligent. Enough said.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is a solution indicated by the GFS and ECMWF, and a plausible solution at that. I would watch for tropical development in 3-5 days.


Imagine if Issac becomes Tropical again and makes Landfall in Tampa Heading SE.

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.