Disorganized Leslie headed towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center is fully exposed to view, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
A small extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic, near 26°N 42°W, (Invest 99L), is headed west at 10 mph, and has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Naked again
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting islander101010:
active.era.began.for.the.atlantic.late.94..gordon .. .it.was.predicted.then

Please give the "." key a break and try using the space bar...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Looks like no one on here likes being corrected....
News Flash----sometimes you are wrong ;)

Are you related to Todd Akin???
News Flash...... you are wrong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:


It didn't, not by itself anyway.

You got geologic forces.



It's not simple atoll.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


So wait, Isaac had several dropsondes and other instruments suggesting 90 to 95mph winds, with gusts of 110 to 120, and they never upgraded it beyond 80mph.


A naked swirl in the ocean with no instrumentation except an satellite estimated 1012mb LLC....and it gets depression status...


The inconsistency is what ticks me off.


TD 13 has consistently had convection over its center for more than 36 hours now and its pressure is actually lower than Gordons' was when it was classified
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Quoting JLPR2:


It's doing it again, MLC developing an eye like feature. :\


Every night at this hour it does the same thing.

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Quoting weatherh98:


how did coral make that?


It didn't, not by itself anyway.

You got geologic forces.
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814. beell
Which one is 13?


Lookin' a little lop-sided on the 1000-500mb thickness on this product (GFS).


UKMET Phase Space less than impressive.


Is there such a thing as a sub-tropical hybrid depression?
(no answer required)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


that one gave me a Chuckle:)


Just peanuts...I have better quotes.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11538
811. JLPR2
Quoting RTSplayer:


So wait, Isaac had several dropsondes and other instruments suggesting 90 to 95mph winds, with gusts of 110 to 120, and they never upgraded it beyond 80mph.


A naked swirl in the ocean with no instrumentation except an satellite estimated 1012mb LLC....and it gets depression status...


The inconsistency is what ticks me off.


Not naked and...

AL, 08, 2012081518, , BEST, 0, 291N, 551W, 30, 1012, TD

That's Gordon. ^

Seems pretty consistent to me.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Looks like no one on here likes being corrected....
News Flash----sometimes you are wrong ;)


you should read your own words then
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Looks like no one on here likes being corrected....
News Flash----sometimes you are wrong ;)
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SHIPS indicates no more than 8kts of shear between days 2 and 5 for Leslie.

You can see the full run here.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8033
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
A little song, a little dance, a little seltzer down your pants.


that one gave me a Chuckle:)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It didn't? Where was I?


His point of view is, it went south of Gaudelope and then Key west by like 5 miles, so it didn't HIT

which is a load of BS, he should be a politician lol
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Tazmanian:


Until you get back on blog topic/Weather related, your going on my ignore list. I hope you stop cause I don't want to do this, you forced my hand.

For those that missed it, here is a Video that Patrap took during Isaac.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:


So wait, Isaac had several dropsondes and other instruments suggesting 90 to 95mph winds, with gusts of 110 to 120, and they never upgraded it beyond 80mph.


A naked swirl in the ocean with no instrumentation except an satellite estimated 1012mb LLC....and it gets depression status...


The inconsistency is what ticks me off.



Agree completely
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
You people need to learn...
Charley wasnt significant in RAIN. Wind was significant.
I dont take meds.
Isaac didnt hit the lesser antillies

It didn't? Where was I?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
A little song, a little dance, a little seltzer down your pants.
Aww, Chuckles! Classic.
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it hit the lesser antillies the FL keys and then the gulf cost
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
NCHaddict-
I LIVE in gainesville. we got 1 inch of rain...


ah no wonder lol

seriously, If you lived in an area along the east coast that had 15 inches of rain or more and you had your house flooded, you would feel differently.
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Quoting Thing342:
Yep, 30+ years of experience and expertise means NOTHING compared to all 9 of your posts.

Go away.


So wait, Isaac had several dropsondes and other instruments suggesting 90 to 95mph winds, with gusts of 110 to 120, and they never upgraded it beyond 80mph.


A naked swirl in the ocean with no instrumentation except an satellite estimated 1012mb LLC....and it gets depression status...


The inconsistency is what ticks me off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
798. JLPR2
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:



Just stop it before you end on everyone's ignore list...
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
OMG, the NHC classified this?!?!?



Lol, jk.
Is it just me or does it look a little like a rat with a long tail? Maybe too much red wine.....
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Quoting ackee:
me too I think that will be our next Invest
Looks like it will have a shot past 40w of development.
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No changes for Leslie... She's held this same intensity for over 24 hours.

AL, 12, 2012090400, , BEST, 0, 240N, 631W, 50, 998, TS
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8033
NCHaddict-
I LIVE in gainesville. we got 1 inch of rain...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like the cooling affect is starting to take some affect in the east pacific.Remember when the Pacific back in June and July were spitting out storms like mad due to the waters off of Central America warming.Now the opposite has occured.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17799
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
You people need to learn...
Charley wasnt significant in RAIN. Wind was significant.
I dont take meds.
Isaac didnt hit the lesser antillies




you are so lost
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting AussieStorm:

I can' see it??? Where am I meant to be looking? which puffy white cloud did they designate? I'm confused!!!!


In the last couple of Visible Sat. frames before the sun passed it you can see the low level circulation
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790. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


It's doing it again, MLC developing an eye like feature. :\
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A little song, a little dance, a little seltzer down your pants.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11538
You people need to learn...
Charley wasnt significant in RAIN. Wind was significant.
I dont take meds.
Isaac didnt hit the lesser antillies
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Isaac never hit Florida? Tell that to everyone flodded out in Gainesville, Vero Beach and West Palm Beach among other places.

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Another wave height map peak at Bermuda according to this 10 meters or 32.8 ft.

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what this blogs needs is a few good jokes



Replacing lab rats with lawyers
The National Institute of Health (NIH) announced last week that they were going to start using lawyers instead of rats in their experiments. Naturally, the American Bar Association was outraged and filed suit. Yet, the NIH presented some very good reasons for the switch.

1. The lab assistants were becoming very attached to their little rats. This emotional involvement was interfering with the research being conducted. No such attachment could form for a lawyer.

2. Lawyers breed faster and are in much greater supply.

3. Lawyers are much cheaper to care for and the humanitarian societies won't jump all over you no matter what you're studying.

4. There are some things even a rat won't do
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Grothar:


Like others have suggested, it almost look like the convection got fed up of trying to keep up with the LLC, so it just reached out and grabbed it, and ate it. Haha.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 617
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Under your standards, Hurricane Charley wasn't very significant either, since it didn't even bring 10 inches of rain to your precious sunshine state.
Just drop it. Stop quoting him.
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15 in of rain aint significant
And classifyed or not, Ana and Isaac IMPACTED FL in some form or another
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780. ackee
Quoting stormpetrol:
Kinda surprised the area around 11/35 wasn't mentioned at 8 pm.
me too I think that will be our next Invest
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

That aint significant

Under your standards, Hurricane Charley wasn't very significant either, since it didn't even bring 10 inches of rain to your precious sunshine state.
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777. ackee
wow I am beging to wonder if this is a El nino year given ALL THE TROPICAL activity we have seen so far. The wave at 35 WEst could also be something to watch down the road I say 2012 will stop at valerie
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I though it was just plain like Florida


Nope.

Bermuda's the summit of a dormant underwater volcano haha.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 617
Quoting stormpetrol:


about 8 hours but at a slow crawl pretty accurate.

According to that, the center is south of 24n. Kinda moving the wrong way ain't she?
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
If everything tropical was a TS or TD, then tropical moisture would be named.

Mate, just drop the subject, you'll never win. Tell me,,, did Isaac hit the Leeward islands?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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