Disorganized Leslie headed towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center is fully exposed to view, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
A small extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic, near 26°N 42°W, (Invest 99L), is headed west at 10 mph, and has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting snowboy:
models runs are trending west for Leslie, and landfall somewhere along the North American east coast is looking more likely


That's scary, too, because it's forecast to possibly become a major within the next few days.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Very weak steering, in fact, it seems a high pressure is building to the NW of Leslie.


Gonna suck when that trough pulls away, because that ridge is going to try to build to the east, since Leslie is moving so slow anyway.

UKmet and NAM probably picking up on that, but those tracks don't exactly make sense either way, because if the high catches Leslie it would seem to turn due west...

Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
models runs are trending west for Leslie, and landfall somewhere along the North American east coast is looking more likely
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Eulogy to Chuckles the Clown...MTM show. My favorite episode. :)Soooo......your thoughts regarding this astute observation please. TIA


You mean the astute observation of the blog arguments or the blocking high expected over Leslie? It's hard to tell. Geoff and I get a little diverted when the adults are having a dispute.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26010
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Nice... I got this for my forecast:







THREAT CODE:

Yellow/Black: Tropical Cyclone is unlikely

Orange/Black: Tropical cyclone is possible

Red/Black: Tropical cyclone is very likely

Pink/Black: Tropical cyclone will make an impact

Nice graphic but you need to change your colours, they are not clear as to which colour they are.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:


Nice... I got this for my forecast:







THREAT CODE:

Yellow/Black: Tropical Cyclone is unlikely

Orange/Black: Tropical cyclone is possible

Red/Black: Tropical cyclone is very likely

Pink/Black: Tropical cyclone will make an impact


Can you put those three in one? THey look good anyway.
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Quoting Grothar:


What a guy!


It explains it all now. :)
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Quoting Hurricane12:
Truthfully, what his blog needs is some good and respected members to be placed as Moderators.

At the end of the day, the discussion here always seems to be enveloped around "blog cops", off-topic photos, politics, or bashing others about their own opinions.

Takes away from Dr. Master's integrity and the what's supposed to "blogging atmosphere". What do you think random people who lurk around here think about the nonsense that regurgitates from some mouths here?



right may be i sould ask dr m if he will make me a Moderator
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
Quoting JLPR2:


Not naked and...

AL, 08, 2012081518, , BEST, 0, 291N, 551W, 30, 1012, TD

That's Gordon. ^

Seems pretty consistent to me.


Talking about Gordon, does anyone know if there were any injuries in the Azores from the hurricane?
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863. JLPR2
Quoting midgulfmom:
Eulogy to Chuckles the Clown...MTM show. My favorite episode. :)Soooo......your thoughts regarding this astute observation please. TIA


Could help push it a little more to the west, but as we can see with a close up of the same image, the high to the east of the system is still stronger.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Direct Hit:
A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind. Compare indirect hit, strike.

Strike:
For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left.


What a guy!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26010
You're welcome, beel.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TROPICAL UPDATE
____________________________

Tropical Storm Leslie... and TD-13 (in the extreme right)


for a bigger pic click here...


Nice... I got this for my forecast:







THREAT CODE:

Yellow/Black: Tropical Cyclone is unlikely

Orange/Black: Tropical cyclone is possible

Red/Black: Tropical cyclone is very likely

Pink/Black: Tropical cyclone will make an impact
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859. beell
Quoting palmettobug53:
beel, we've got to quit meeting like this.


Heck no, bug. Enjoyed the Bermuda info!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
Quoting Grothar:


Why does that not surprise me. You quote it, I'll know where it came from.
You guys both make me smile (and chuckle). I really appreciate the humor amid the education on tropical weather.
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Quoting Grothar:


Large, strong storm moving a little erratically North. should move a little west, then resume North motion then Northeast. Remnants of Isaac will move into the Eastern Gulf and most likely move into Central or Southern Florida. Unknown what the strength will be, probably winds and heavy rain. Will know more later.

Thanks Gro. Now get back to your doctors appointment!
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Quoting Grothar:


that one gave me a Chuckle:)
Eulogy to Chuckles the Clown...MTM show. My favorite episode. :)
Quoting JLPR2:


Very weak steering, in fact, it seems a high pressure is building to the NW of Leslie.
Soooo......your thoughts regarding this astute observation please. TIA
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Truthfully, what his blog needs is some good and respected members to be placed as Moderators.

At the end of the day, the discussion here always seems to be enveloped around "blog cops", off-topic photos, politics, or bashing others about their own opinions.

Takes away from Dr. Master's integrity and what's supposed to be an "informative blogging atmosphere." What do you think random people who lurk around think about the nonsense that regurgitates from some mouths here?
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854. JLPR2
Africa looks more active today, first & second blob on the line combined with the little action around the CV islands is developed into a tropical system by the GFS

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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Thank you KOTG.
You proved me wrong

The reason I say thanks, is because you didnt rant about how ive done something wrong. Seems like he has sophistication and patience with people

So did others...it wasn't until you ranted about how you were right and everyone else was wrong that people started to hammer you...and rightfully so.
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Quoting Hurricane12:


I want to just hug TD13, but it might break apart if I do. ;)

I can't even find it.



The cold front that hit SW Western Australia produced wind gusts up to 102km/h(63mph) and is forecast to bring 35-45km/h sustained winds with gusts to 70km/h to Sydney on Wednesday and Thursday.
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repeat post...
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11104
I wasnt trolling
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Quoting Grothar:



It's not simple atoll.


;)
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Quoting bassis:


Is it shear that is blowing her storms off the center?


Shear is pretty unfavorable, and out of the NW for the next 36 hours, so yeah.

After 36 hours, according to SHIPS, the shear drops to 8kts or less all the way out to 120 hours.


This is probably why Euro's intensity goes so high.

Ships max intensity predictor is similar to Camille intensity.

SHIPS Adjusted max intensity is similar to Gustav(Cuba) or Andrew(Florida).


So Euro is not unreasonable, it's just an out-lier for now.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
TROPICAL UPDATE
____________________________

Tropical Storm Leslie... and TD-13 (in the extreme right)


for a bigger pic click here...
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No.You were trolling.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
845. JLPR2


Very weak steering, in fact, it seems a high pressure is building to the NW of Leslie.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

I'm wrong sometimes. But I know I'm not wrong now. Ya'll dont want to face the fact u r wrong.

And only Democrats say BS. not all politicians.
the whole center has to hit Guadelope to be a hit. It didnt...


Adding political views to your post, blows any credibility away. Just shows someone who is biased in some way and thinks 'they' are right either way.

You may have had a leg to stand on before that. Forecasting a tropical storm has NOTHING to do with politcal opinion...period.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

mmmm the blog police are back again.












AussieStorm oh really and i dont think i ask you too be blog cop at post 805 when you told me too stay on topic


see your post be low


AussieStorm 5:51 PM PDT on September 03, 2012 +3

Tazmanian:



Until you get back on blog topic/Weather related, your going on my ignore list. I hope you stop cause I don't want to do this, you forced my hand.

For those that missed it, here is a Video that Patrap took during Isaa
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Just peanuts...I have better quotes.


Why does that not surprise me. You quote it, I'll know where it came from.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26010
Thank you KOTG.
You proved me wrong

The reason I say thanks, is because you didnt rant about how ive done something wrong. Seems like he has sophistication and patience with people
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Quoting bassis:


Is it shear that is blowing her storms off the center?
Has to be and is the story with storms this year they take forever to get going and they like to be naked all the time ;)
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Quoting AussieStorm:

mmmm the blog police are back again.












I want to just hug TD13, but it might break apart if I do. ;)
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Quoting Gearsts:
Naked again
This reminds me of the lucky charms pink marshmallow.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
Quoting Grothar:


that one gave me a Chuckle:)
Eulogy to Chuckles the Clown...MTM show. My favorite episode. :)
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
You people need to learn...
Charley wasnt significant in RAIN. Wind was significant.
I dont take meds.
Isaac didnt hit the lesser antillies

So when Isaac hit the Antillies as a TS that didn't count. This map begs to differ:

Also, I'm sorry if I got you mad. You're a nice guy and aren't going on my ignore list after tonight.
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beel, we've got to quit meeting like this.
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Quoting Grothar:



It's not simple atoll.


nice.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
The blog is feisty.

I think we need some interesting storms to be able to rid ourselves of the nonsense we have tonight.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
be for we get all too off topic could we may be this put JrWeathermanFL on ignore and get back too are storms we have?

mmmm the blog police are back again.










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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Direct Hit:
A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind. Compare indirect hit, strike.

Strike:
For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left.


wow, thank you for posting that
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Put me on ignore for doing what?
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Quoting Gearsts:
Naked again


Is it shear that is blowing her storms off the center?
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Isaac never hit the Keys....
Don't even tell me I'm wrong because I know I'm right.
Sayint that Isaac hit the keys is like saying Jose was a Cat 5....



Direct Hit:
A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind. Compare indirect hit, strike.

Strike:
For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53548
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
SHIPS indicates no more than 8kts of shear between days 2 and 5 for Leslie.

You can see the full run here.

Well that is good for Leslie and with her survival she should restrengthen.
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Dude just give it up.Your humiliating your self on the blog.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16828
be for we get all too off topic could we may be this put JrWeathermanFL on ignore and get back too are storms we have?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Looks like no one on here likes being corrected....
News Flash----sometimes you are wrong ;)

heed your own advice...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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