Leslie a threat to Bermuda; Isaac is gone

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:30 PM GMT on September 02, 2012

Share this Blog
32
+

Tropical Storm Leslie is struggling today under a high 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The high shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay high through Wednesday, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, on Thursday and Friday. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and may intensify to a hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to collapse by mid-week, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The storm will slowly meander over the open ocean for many days, and the latest guidance from the GFS and ECMWF models shows Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie to the north by Sunday, September 9. At that time, Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada or New England by Monday, September 10. However, making forecasts of what a tropical cyclone might do a week in advance is a sketchy proposition. Leslie could miss land entirely; this all depends upon the timing and strength of the September 8 trough of low pressure. If Leslie survives its encounter with high wind shear early this week and becomes a hurricane late in the week, the storm will bring an extended period of high waves to the U.S. coast late this week. These waves will be capable of creating dangerous rip currents and beach erosion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie.

Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
An extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic near 28°N 38°W has begun to develop a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and was designated Invest 99L by NHC on Sunday morning. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Sunday, NHC gave 99L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Tuesday morning.

Isaac declared non-tropical
Hurricane Isaac's remnants are no longer considered an organized tropical system, but ex-Isaac will bring 1 - 3" of rain to Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee today. Isaac's remnants may bring a few tornadoes to Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of these states in their "Slight Risk" area for severe weather. As of late Saturday night, Isaac's preliminary tornado total was 39, putting it in a tie for 12th place for most tornadoes spawned by a tropical system, according to Dr. Greg Forbes of the Weather Channel. The record holder is Hurricane Ivan of 2004, with 127 tornadoes. Isaac brought storm surges as high as 13.6' to the coast (in Lake Borgne, LA), and dumped 20" of rain at one station in New Orleans. Isaac is being blamed for at least seven deaths in the U.S., 24 in Haiti, and five in the Dominican Republic.

A few notable rainfall totals from Isaac, through Saturday:

20.08" New Orleans, LA
17.63 Wilmer, AL
17.04" Kiln, MS
16.60" Vero Beach, FL
16.29" Royal Palm Beach, FL
15.02" Marion, MS
13.99" Pascagoula, MS
13.94" Baptist, LA
13.45" Hattiesburg, MS
10.85" Gulfport, MS
10.40" Slidell, LA
10.17" Biloxi, MS
9.85" Mobile, AL
9.08" Mount Pleasant, SC
8.64" West Palm Beach, FL
8.39" Pine Bluff, AR
7.36" Charleston, SC (2.8 mi NE)
5.95" Baton Rouge, LA
5.63" Greenville, IL


Figure 2. Rainfall total for Hurricane Isaac, ending at 8 am EDT Sunday September 2, 2012. Over ten inches of rain fell in portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, and Arkansas. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

I'll have a short post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1044 - 994

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

1044. Matthias1967
5:12 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting flcanes:

wasn't last year's storm named rolf
i think the nhc should have a claim to storm's, if not, let the swedes handle e'm


IIRC the eastern border of the NHC's area of responsibility is 0 East/West.

The last years storm was named Rolf by the FU Berlin. Since about sixty years, highs and lows have been named by the Free University of Berlin, alternating men's names and women's names each year, 2012 the lows are female and the highs are male. (Next year it will be vice versa.)

Those names used to be common within Germany first but beginning with Lothar 1999 came to be used in other countries as well and nowadays are used through the greater part of Europa. Those names are not used in the U.K. and probably not in Norway either since in Norvay they have their own naming pattern.

Member Since: August 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
1043. lobdelse81
5:03 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting goalexgo:
Michael looks wonderful this morning. But its old Nadine that we have to concern ourserves with. Shes mean, and could be the Florida storm that everyone touts.

I'm surprised the NHC didn't make a mention of that area of convection. It looks somewhat impressive.
Member Since: September 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 405
1042. lobdelse81
5:01 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
The EAtl swirl, the Mediterranean cyclone, and the next two African wave-train candidates:

Africa

...and in living color:

Africa

So it's possible we get Michael from 99L, Nadine from the wave around 30W/11N, and maybe Oscar and Patty from those two waves over the African continent. What are your guys' thoughts?
Member Since: September 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 405
1041. CosmicEvents
4:34 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting K8eCane:
if anybody is able to donate a dollar or two to Portlight...they do come to your rescue if u need it when a storm hits...they have generators and chainsaws and volunteers....i mean if Press can put on a dress.....
The folks in North Florida who got flooded earlier this year are still waiting.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5462
1040. PensacolaDoug
4:25 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting K8eCane:


HA Press in a dress LOVEIT. He did it for Portlight. Thats a good man


That pic of Presslord in a dress was 1st posted by Presslord several years ago and has been re-posted many times since.. I think it had something to do with a fund raiser for PORTLIGHT but I'm a bit hazy on that. Point is, no one was offended and it was never removed, untill today. So a big thankyou goes out to all of the blog cops and Wunder admins for being such killjoys. I speak only for myself.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
1039. E46Pilot
4:22 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Nope. Isaac or what's left of his circulation is just NW of Louisville.

Link


Wow, that's a really cool wind map.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
1038. LargoFl
4:20 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
thanks doc
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33473
1037. Skyepony (Mod)
4:20 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Off for festivities.. Happy Labor Day all!

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36169
1036. LargoFl
4:19 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:


I was noticing this last night and for 2 runs in a row the GFS shows something as well as the Euro and the Canadian.

Could be something like TS Henri in 2003:



hiya GT, glad you came on,we need to watch this for sure
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33473
1035. MAweatherboy1
4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
150 hours:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7304
1034. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1033. Skyepony (Mod)
4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Nope. Isaac or what's left of his circulation is just NW of Louisville.

Link


It is over KY but watch the CMC..trough comes along, splits the moisture shoving some south into the Gulf of Mexico.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36169
1032. Progster
4:17 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting HurrAndrew:


This seems suspicious. Off Canadian coast.


Phase Diagrams (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/)
especially CMC do give it some sub-tropical cyclone characteristics, and it stays over warm enough water for the next few days..
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
1031. GTcooliebai
4:16 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting HurrAndrew:


This seems suspicious. Off Canadian coast.
That is one of the ULL steering Leslie. If you ask me it looks Baroclinic.

North Atlantic Water Vapor Loop
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1030. Skyepony (Mod)
4:16 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting HurrAndrew:


This seems suspicious. Off Canadian coast.


It's odd how they are stacked with that N of Leslie...Meteocane stacked N over that huge blob over Africa.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36169
1029. AussieStorm
4:15 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting E46Pilot:
Is that development in the GOM what's left over of Isaac?

Nope. Isaac or what's left of his circulation is just NW of Louisville.

Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
1028. Grothar
4:15 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23749
1027. daddyjames
4:14 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
I believe that some models are forecasting the extra-tropical low of Isaac to move into the Southeast. It is possible that the GOM low does originate from that..

Quoting E46Pilot:
Is that development in the GOM what's left over of Isac?
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
1026. Skyepony (Mod)
4:14 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting E46Pilot:
Is that development in the GOM what's left over of Isac?


Looks like about 1/3 of Isaac + some trough.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36169
1025. VINNY04
4:13 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:


This is from a blog Dr M done a few days ago.


Wouldn't these rain amounts account for the deficit in South and central Florida as shown on this rainfall map.
well it looks like our drought could be ending soon. greetings all
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
1024. HurrAndrew
4:13 PM GMT on September 03, 2012


This seems suspicious. Off Canadian coast.
Member Since: October 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
1023. Chicklit
4:13 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
1022. Seastep
4:12 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Fresh ASCAT:

Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
1021. GTcooliebai
4:12 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
GFS 120 hrs. Leslie and the next system off of Africa could be Michael or Nadine depending on what happens in the Gulf.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1020. AussieStorm
4:11 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Its movement will be slow, not nearly non-existent. It's not like it will be moving at 2 mph.

it's moving at 8mph right now. in 1 day at it's present movement it center will travel 192miles. It's tropical wind field is 205miles, which mean's it will be in the shadow of it's previous 24hr. Wind over water for 24hrs to 36hrs will cause up-welling.

In 5 days the NHC is forecasting Leslie to travel 7, which equates to 345.55miles (1
Lat = 69.11miles)

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
1019. Chicklit
4:11 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
NHC 8 a.m.
TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N35W 16N35W 13N36W.
THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. THIS WAVE LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.



next aoi imo
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
1018. E46Pilot
4:10 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Is that development in the GOM what's left over of Isac?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
1017. GTcooliebai
4:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
yes it sure looks like florida is going to get something this week, most of the models are pointing to it now..thanks, i still cant find out how strong it will be,hope its nothing more that a TS.
Quoting icmoore:






Hey Largo I saw your post and the Tampa Bay discussion may be addressing what you're seeing?

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS INTERIOR
COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE POOLS UP ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE TROPICAL
IN NATURE AND NOT SEVERE.



I was noticing this last night and for 2 runs in a row the GFS shows something as well as the Euro and the Canadian.

Could be something like TS Henri in 2003:



Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1016. E46Pilot
4:08 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Disco...

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE EASTERN AND INTERIOR AREAS TODAY...

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THE WESTERN AREAS
OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER THE DRY AIR THAT IS SURROUNDING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO A SLIGHT 10
PERCENT OVER THE WEST COAST AND AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE 12Z MIA SOUNDING IS ALSO SHOWING THAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED TO AROUND -9C THIS MORNING...AND
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND -9C TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY STORMS
TODAY TO BECOME STRONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND
EAST COAST AREAS.


Damn, looks like I am going to have to go buy some more tarps for the roof. There not replacing my roof for another 2 weeks.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
1015. LargoFl
4:07 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND HAIL.

WINDS: WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE THE INTERIOR
AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HAIL: NICKEL SIZE TO EVEN QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.

FLOODING: ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH
COUNTY...ESPECIALLY IN LOXAHATCHEE GROVES AREA. AS A RESULT...THE
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES DUE TO EASTERLY ONSHORE WINDS.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE INTERIOR AND EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE WEST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEK.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33473
1014. GeoffreyWPB
4:05 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
From the Miami NWS Disco...

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE EASTERN AND INTERIOR AREAS TODAY...

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THE WESTERN AREAS
OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN UNDER THE DRY AIR THAT IS SURROUNDING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30
PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO A SLIGHT 10
PERCENT OVER THE WEST COAST AND AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE 12Z MIA SOUNDING IS ALSO SHOWING THAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED TO AROUND -9C THIS MORNING...AND
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND -9C TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY STORMS
TODAY TO BECOME STRONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND
EAST COAST AREAS.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
1013. E46Pilot
4:04 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:


This is from a blog Dr M done a few days ago.


Wouldn't these rain amounts account for the deficit in South and central Florida as shown on this rainfall map.


While we may have a deficit of the normal amount of rain....we are by no means anywhere near a drought condition. I believe that deficit comes from us having a very dry Jan-March.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
1012. SFLWeatherman
4:00 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
1011. LargoFl
4:00 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33473
1010. LargoFl
3:59 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting icmoore:


Hey Largo I saw your post and the Tampa Bay discussion may be addressing what you're seeing?

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS INTERIOR
COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE POOLS UP ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE TROPICAL
IN NATURE AND NOT SEVERE.
many thanks..hope this doesnt develop into anything, this time of year is dangerous in the gulf
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33473
1009. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:58 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

it's shear size will cause up-welling that combined with it's slow movement.

Its movement will be slow, not nearly non-existent. It's not like it will be moving at 2 mph.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30291
1008. LargoFl
3:57 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

looks like a cold front to me.

Yo, NHC,,, Good luck with this forecast.
INIT 03/0900Z 23.8N 62.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 24.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 25.5N 62.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 26.1N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 26.6N 62.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 27.6N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 28.7N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 30.8N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH

A slow moving system is it's own worst enemy.
no matter how hot the water is.
..hope your right, there is still flood warnings in parts of florida
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33473
1007. AussieStorm
3:57 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting E46Pilot:


I know, I feel we aren't getting enough play about how bad it is out there. Everyone is talking about the LA area. We've got areas that are still flooded from rain that was 7 days ago. It's crazy, I've never seen it that bad here ever.


This is from a blog Dr M done a few days ago.


Wouldn't these rain amounts account for the deficit in South and central Florida as shown on this rainfall map.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
1006. icmoore
3:56 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
GT you lurking?..Nam at 84 hours, we get hit with something


Hey Largo I saw your post and the Tampa Bay discussion may be addressing what you're seeing?

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS INTERIOR
COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE POOLS UP ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE TROPICAL
IN NATURE AND NOT SEVERE.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4141
1005. washingtonian115
3:56 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

it's shear size will cause up-welling that combined with it's slow movement.
Agree.Larger systems up well more water faster than a smaller system would.There have been several examples.To lazy to name right now.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15738
1004. LargoFl
3:56 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:


Check out the gfs & cmc too. Both bring a smaller storm from the SE over the FL panhandle. CMC rakes west FL & ends the 5 day run with it on SFL. GFS keeps it off shore of West FL til it' builds a little than into big bend & across NFL, being pulled by Leslie.
yes it sure looks like florida is going to get something this week, most of the models are pointing to it now..thanks, i still cant find out how strong it will be,hope its nothing more that a TS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33473
1003. SFLWeatherman
3:55 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
All Palm Beach County public schools open Tuesday
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
1002. AussieStorm
3:54 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It would have to stall for several days for upwelling to become an issue.

it's shear size will cause up-welling that combined with it's slow movement.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
1001. E46Pilot
3:54 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
It is bad!!


I know, I feel we aren't getting enough play about how bad it is out there. Everyone is talking about the LA area. We've got areas that are still flooded from rain that was 7 days ago. It's crazy, I've never seen it that bad here ever.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
1000. AussieStorm
3:52 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:
WxPR said we can't ignore 99L as I feel it could develop and it looks good.

The GFS, CMC, ECMWF don't develop it.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
999. SFLWeatherman
3:52 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
It is bad!!
Quoting E46Pilot:


That is only because there is still flooding left over in West Palm Beach from Isac.
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
998. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:51 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

looks like a cold front to me.

Yo, NHC,,, Good luck with this forecast.
INIT 03/0900Z 23.8N 62.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 24.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 25.5N 62.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 26.1N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 26.6N 62.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 27.6N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 28.7N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 30.8N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH

A slow moving system is it's own worst enemy.
no matter how hot the water is.

It would have to stall for several days for upwelling to become an issue.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30291
997. SFLWeatherman
3:51 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
996. Skyepony (Mod)
3:50 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Flood Warning for Palm Beach County, FL From 27TH to now!!


Hopefully cmc doesn't materialize.. That would leave only a few days before another dumping.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36169
995. E46Pilot
3:50 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Flood Warning for Palm Beach County, FL From 27TH to now!!


That is only because there is still flooding left over in West Palm Beach from Isac.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
994. K8eCane
3:50 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
if anybody is able to donate a dollar or two to Portlight...they do come to your rescue if u need it when a storm hits...they have generators and chainsaws and volunteers....i mean if Press can put on a dress.....
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3041

Viewing: 1044 - 994

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.