Unanswered questions concerning Hurricane Isaac

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:35 PM GMT on August 31, 2012

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The top winds of Tropical Depression Isaac have fallen to 25 mph, but the storm continues to be a potent rain-maker as it heads north-northwest at 11 mph into Missouri. Isaac has spawned up to 20 suspected tornadoes, brought storm surges as high as 13.6' to the coast (in Lake Borgne, LA), and dumped 20" of rain at one station in New Orleans. The 13.27" of rain that fell at Hattiesburg, MS broke the record for wettest August in the city's history (previous record: 13.03" in 1987.) Major flooding is occurring on seven rivers in Louisiana and Mississippi. Isaac is being blamed for at least four deaths in the U.S., 24 in Haiti, and five in the Dominican Republic.

A few notable rainfall totals from Isaac, through 11 am EDT on Friday:

20.08" New Orleans, LA
15.02" Marion, MS
13.99" Pascagoula, MS
13.27" Hattiesburg, MS
10.85" Gulfport, MS
10.39" Slidell, LA
10.17" Biloxi, MS
9.85" Mobile, AL
7.38" Pine Bluff, AR
5.95" Baton Rouge, LA

A major reason for Isaac's heavy rainfall totals has been its very slow motion. This slow speed was due to the fact Isaac has been bumping into a ridge of high pressure that is unusually strong, due to the intense drought over the center of the U.S.; strong drought-amplified high pressure areas are very resistant to allowing any low pressure areas to intrude into their domain. The high pressure area was strong enough this week to allow several all-time records for heat this late in the year to be set:

112° on August 29 at Winner, SD
108° on August 29 at Valentine, NE
107° on August 29 at Corpus Christi, TX
97° on August 29 at Denver, CO (2nd highest so late in the year)


Figure 1. Nighttime view of Hurricane Isaac taken at 1:57 am CDT August 29, 2012, by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi-NPP satellite. The VIIRS day-night band detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared, and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. In this case, the clouds of Isaac were lit by moonlight. Image credit: NASA.

Isaac's beneficial rains falling in drought-stricken regions
Hurricanes get a lot of attention because of the billions in damage they cost, and the lives they disrupt. AIR Worldwide estimated today that insured damage from Isaac would cost up to $2 billion. This does not include damage to infrastructure or uninsured damage, so the final price tag of Isaac's rampage will be more like $3 - $5 billion. However, Isaac is now dumping beneficial rains over Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky--regions stricken by the worst drought since the 1950s or 1930s, depending upon the exact location. These regions need 9 - 18 inches of rain to pull them out of drought. Isaac's 3 - 6 inches of rain will not end the drought, but will put a pretty good dent in it. I expect that 3 - 6 inches of rain for a wide swath of prime agricultural land in extreme drought is probably worth at least $5 billion, when you consider that a recent estimate by a Purdue economist put the cost of the great drought of 2012 at more than $77 billion. Only Hurricane Katrina ($146 billion) and the drought of 1988 ($78 billion) have been more expensive disasters, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Unfortunately, Isaac's arrival is poorly timed, as the storm is arriving during harvest season. The strong winds associated with the storm will flatten many crops, making it more difficult to harvest them, and Isaac's winds may cost farmers several hundred million dollars due to unharvestable crops. Still, the rains from Isaac will be highly beneficial for the success of the upcoming winter wheat season, and for next year's growing season.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the five-day period ending on Tuesday evening shows that Isaac is expected to bring a large region of 3 - 6 inches of rain (red, orange, and brown colors) to Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 3. The great drought of 2012 has brought so little rain to the Midwest that some areas require over 15" of rain (dark purple colors) to end the drought. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

Unanswered questions about Hurricane Isaac

1. Did the passage of Hurricane Isaac stir up oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill? Isaac was the first hurricane to pass over the site of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill. We know that large hurricanes are capable of creating currents in deep water at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico; Hurricane Ivan caused upwelling currents of 0.5 cm/s at a depth of about 500 meters. In an August 28 article in the Huffington Post, Nick Shay, professor of meteorology and physical oceanography at the University of Miami, said: "Winds will push water away from the center of a storm, which causes an upwelling as the ocean tries to adjust. It brings whatever is near the bottom up higher in the water column and currents can then push it towards the coast." Up to 1 million barrels of oil from the spill are estimated to still be present in the deep water sediment, on beaches, and in the marshes of Louisiana, and it is possible some of this oil will wash up on the Gulf Coast in coming months. The storm surge of Isaac also likely flushed out oil lodged in the coastal marshes of Louisiana, but it is unknown how much of a concern this might be.

2. What's the deal with these super-sized Category 1 and 2 hurricanes that have been hitting the U.S.? The past three landfalling hurricanes in the U.S.--Isaac (2012), Irene (2011), and Ike (2008)--have all been exceptionally large, among the top ten on record for horizontal extent of tropical storm-force winds. Each of these storms had an unusually low pressure characteristic of a storm one full Saffir-Simpson category stronger. Is this the new normal for U.S. hurricanes?

3. Did the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system cause worse flooding elsewhere? Whenever a new levee or flood control structure is created, you make someone else's flood problem worse, since the water has to go somewhere. Where did the water was stopped by the new $1.1 billion, 1.8 mile-long Lake Borgne flood barrier on the east side of New Orleans go? Did it flow south and contribute to the overtopping of the levees near Braithwaite? Or did it go north and contribute to the 36 hours of storm surge in excess of 5' observed along the Mississippi coast at Waveland? I posed this question to NHC's storm surge expert Jaime Rhome, and he said it was impossible to know without doing detailed storm surge modeling studies.

4. Can only hurricanes beginning with the letter "I" hit the U.S. now? Isaac (2012), Irene (2011), and Ike (2008) are the last three hurricanes to hit the U.S. It turns out that hurricanes that begin with the letter "I" and "C" have more names on the list of retired hurricanes than any other letter (nine each.) I'm thinking Isaac will get its name retired, letting storms beginning with "I" take over sole possession of first place on the retired storms list.

Hurricane Kirk in the Central Atlantic
Hurricane Kirk intensified into a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane this morning, becoming the 2nd strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Hurricane Gordon was the only stronger storm; Gordon hit sustained winds of 110 mph just before reaching the Azores Islands on August 18. Kirk has probably peaked in intensity, and is about to move over colder waters and gradually decay. Kirk is not a threat to any land areas.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie.

Tropical Storm Leslie a long-range threat to Bermuda, Canada, and the U.S. East Coast
Tropical Storm Leslie formed on Thursday in the Central Atlantic. Leslie's formation date of August 30 puts 2012 in 2nd place for earliest formation date of the season's 12th tropical storm. Only 1995 had an earlier formation date of the season's 12th storm. With records dating back to 1851, this year is only the second time 8 total storms have formed in August. The other year was 2004, when the first storm of the season formed on August 1 (Alex), and the 8th storm (Hermine) formed on August 29th. Satellite loops show that Leslie has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and respectable low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow. Conditions appear ripe to allow Leslie to intensify into a Category 2 hurricane by Sunday. Fortunately, Hurricane Kirk is weakening the ridge of high pressure to the north of Leslie, and Leslie is expected to turn to the northwest and miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, steering currents for Leslie are expected to collapse early next week, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The storm will then slowly meander over the open ocean for many days, potentially threatening Bermuda. Leslie will stay stuck until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast around September 8. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie to the north and then northeast by September 9. At that time, Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in New England, Canada, or the Mid-Atlantic states. Leslie could also miss land entirely; this all depends upon the timing and strength of the September 8 trough of low pressure. Regardless, Leslie is expected to bring an extended period of high waves to the U.S. coast. According to NOAA's Wavewatch III model, large swells from Leslie will reach Bermuda by Monday, and arrive along the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday. These waves will be capable of creating dangerous rip currents and beach erosion.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to Isaac
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, are in Mississippi, helping out with Isaac relief efforts. You can check out their progress or donate to Portlight's disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website.

I'm planning on taking Saturday off, but will have a new post for you on Sunday. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Isaac Louisiana (apphotos)
People play in the storm surge from Hurricane Isaac, on Lakeshore Drive along Lake Pontchartrain, as the storm nears land, in New Orleans, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana
Portlight volunteers at Biloxi shelter (Portlight)
Portlight volunteers at Biloxi shelter
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana (apphotos)
Research students from the the University of Alabama measure wind speeds as Hurricane Isaac makes landfall, Wednesday, Aug. 29, 2012, in New Orleans, La. Isaac was packing 80 mph winds, making it a Category 1 hurricane. It came ashore early Tuesday near the mouth of the Mississippi River, driving a wall of water nearly 11 feet high inland and soaking a neck of land that stretches into the Gulf. The storm stalled for several hours before resuming a slow trek inland, and forecasters said that was
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana
TS Isaac (Raine911)
Between the rain bands
TS Isaac

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Quoting Brillig:


That's the one. Notice how it turns yellow in the NE. Thanks for posting.


You're welcome.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I don't know how you can find a storm by track. But I think the storm you mention might be the one that went into LA. This is the TX storm.


That's the one. Notice how it turns yellow in the NE. Thanks for posting.
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Quoting Brillig:
I was looking at the hurricane maps today, and something struck me abou this one:

One of those tracks (seems like it's the one that goes over Texas) looks like it changed from a hurricane to a tropical storm and then back to a hurricane again OVER LAND. What hurricane is this? I'd like to learn more.

To make the question more generic, how can I find a hurricane given a track like on this picture?


It's the 1900 Galveston hurricane

1900 Galveston Wikipedia
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Quoting Grothar:
I have to admit, this is quite a bit shift west than the previous run





And so, it starts again ??

Hope not.
But the muddles are sure having a rough time this season, with the Atl. Storms.
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12z GFS precip map

through 120 hours..


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Quoting sar2401:


Leslie is surrounded by 20-30 knot wind shear on all sides. It seems like her only eacape route is almost directly north, into an area of 5-10 knot shear. If she continues to move west, she has to get through an area of 20-25 knot shear before she could get to the relatively low shear environment of the SE Caribbean. It looks like she will make a turn to north to escape the shear. If she moves further west, she will be getting heavily sheared and also moving into an area of lower TCHP than she's in now. I assume this is playing a part in the NHC's currently thinking, as well as the models. Given the history of this year, who knows, but it still looks like a northerly track and then getting hung up in the doldrums of the central Atlantic.

Leslie is not going to go north just to "avoid wind shear." It all depends on the steering currents. I think that the longer she holds a WSW or even slightly south of that course, the more of a chance she will end up farther west.
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Thanks Doc. Living in the Keys the past 52 years, I have experienced many hurricanes. I used to be terrified of the canes starting with "C" since they all seemed to be very destructive back in the 60's. Now its the I's.

How primitive and superstitous we are as a human race. Even with the science and technology we have at our fingertips, we can still attribute evil intentions to a storm. We fear the number or letter 3/9 or C/I. Ridiculous!

Hey, maybe I just solved it. 3 and any multiples of it do have evil connotations. LOL
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Quoting Brillig:
I was looking at the hurricane maps today, and something struck me abou this one:

One of those tracks (seems like it's the one that goes over Texas) looks like it changed from a hurricane to a tropical storm and then back to a hurricane again OVER LAND. What hurricane is this? I'd like to learn more.

To make the question more generic, how can I find a hurricane given a track like on this picture?


I don't know how you can find a storm by track. But I think the storm you mention might be the one that went into LA. This is the TX storm.
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Quoting E46Pilot:
Andrew's track.



Definitely. Andrew zigged when he should have zagged, if I remember correctly.
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Quoting Brillig:
I was looking at the hurricane maps today, and something struck me abou this one:

One of those tracks (seems like it's the one that goes over Texas) looks like it changed from a hurricane to a tropical storm and then back to a hurricane again OVER LAND. What hurricane is this? I'd like to learn more.

To make the question more generic, how can I find a hurricane given a track like on this picture?
The one that goes to Texas is Ike and there are two others in there that jump out at me. Andrew and Hugo.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thank You Dr. for the great Blog post and enjoyed seeing you on TWC. Enjoy some down time with the Family this weekend.

Pretty amazing to have a "L" storm before September 1st and here's hoping that we will not see any more CV storms spin up after Leslie is gone before the action shifts back closer to home. However, another nice looking wave just left the dock:

Link

The monster that's about to exit in three days might get an invest number before splashdown.
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Quoting E46Pilot:
If the models are showing the storm stalling out, anything the models are showing after the stall out can be thrown out for right now. We have to really watch this one. This reminds me of Andrew unfortunately.

I agree with you
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Quoting Grothar:
I have to admit, this is quite a bit shift west than the previous run






Leslie is surrounded by 20-30 knot wind shear on all sides. It seems like her only escape route is almost directly north, into an area of 5-10 knot shear. If she continues to move west, she has to get through an area of 20-25 knot shear before she could get to the relatively low shear environment of the SE Caribbean. It looks like she will make a turn to north to escape the shear. If she moves further west, she will be getting heavily sheared and also moving into an area of lower TCHP than she's in now. I assume this is playing a part in the NHC's currently thinking, as well as the models. Given the history of this year, who knows, but it still looks like a northerly track and then getting hung up in the doldrums of the central Atlantic.
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Andrew's track.

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I was looking at the hurricane maps today, and something struck me abou this one:

One of those tracks (seems like it's the one that goes over Texas) looks like it changed from a hurricane to a tropical storm and then back to a hurricane again OVER LAND. What hurricane is this? I'd like to learn more.

To make the question more generic, how can I find a hurricane given a track like on this picture?
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If the models are showing the storm stalling out, anything the models are showing after the stall out can be thrown out for right now. We have to really watch this one. This reminds me of Andrew unfortunately.
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Thank You Dr. for the great Blog post and enjoyed seeing you on TWC. Enjoy some down time with the Family this weekend.

Pretty amazing to have a "L" storm before September 1st and here's hoping that we will not see any more CV storms spin up after Leslie is gone before the action shifts back closer to home. However, another nice looking wave just left the dock:

Link
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18 Waltanater inre page1comment7 : Not sure what your point is of your cartoon there...

Just tweaking the twits who "The IceAge is coming!!!"
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The models at the end of their runs are showing the storm slowing down and stuttering, like "Oh, maybe she isn't going out to sea!"



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You know that's a large hurricane when the storm is by Bermuda yet the closed isobars reach Florida. Wow.
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Quoting HurrikanEB:
Ouch..


I love that animation, it basically looks as though Kirk got shot in the eye and the bullet came out the other end.
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Thanks DRM. I think Ike was the first test of Jefferson County's 17ft levee system to my west. And it was lapping at the top of that. But it held. My county flooded like crazy as did Cameron Parrish to my east-AGAIN! When my county talked about doing a study on a levee here one of the things they were looking at is how a levee here would affect Cameron Parrish. I have since read about the coastal protection plan Louisiana says they are going to build all the way across their coast. Pretty sure where the surge would go in that case. I hope they do put a levee in here. I don't know who decided to turn down a proposed levee in 1976.
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...REMNANTS OF ISAAC WILL IMPACT THE OZARKS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD AND IMPACT
THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT REMAIN
EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC WHICH WILL GENERALLY
BE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 65 WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL THEN TAPER OFF TOWARD THE KANSAS
BORDER WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO OR LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED.

WHILE THE OZARKS AND SURROUNDING REGION REMAIN IN DROUGHT
CONDITIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN RAPID WITHIN BANK RISES
ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

THOSE CAMPING ON GRAVEL BARS OR FLOATING ON AREA STREAMS THIS
LABOR DAY WEEKEND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR STREAM LEVELS FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS...AND WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE
CURRENT...JACKS FORK...ELEVEN POINT...BIG PINEY AND NIANGUA
RIVERS.

BREEZY IF NOT WINDY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY IS
LIMITED...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWER BANDS. THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR BRIEF WEAK ISOLATED
TORNADO EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA...OR TRUSTED INTERNET SOURCE ON THE LATEST
DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
LINDENBERG
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Quoting tornadodude:
Afternoon all

I intercepted Isaac in Gulfport, Ms. Was a good experience. I feel for those affected, thankfully Isaac wasn't any stronger!

Here is a picture of me in the parking garage we were in during the storm!

glad you made it thru safely, must have been strong winds huh
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Afternoon all

I intercepted Isaac in Gulfport, Ms. Was a good experience. I feel for those affected, thankfully Isaac wasn't any stronger!

Here is a picture of me in the parking garage we were in during the storm!

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Leslie Long Floater - JSL Color Imagery Loop

I have the center at 15.6 N 49.7 W
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
I know it is early but I can tell you that living in Nova Scotia I am NOT liking the waythat thsi is shaping up for us! So far this year we have been very fortunate with the recurves (Kirk would have killed us!). Keeping in mind that Juan was a Category two and was devestating. Anyway guys thanks for all the great maps and observations. I will keep lurking and wathcing the experts.
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Quoting LargoFl:
yeah post it when it comes out ok


I will try if I am not swamped at work:)
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Quoting LargoFl:
so in sept, those coming off africa threaten florida or recurve?
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Quoting Brock31:


She could sit out there for a month, that'd be great.

That being said, rarely do tropical systems do what they're asked.
yep..would be nice if it died out too
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Quoting ncstorm:


the 12z Euro runs at 2pm EST today..will it continue to show the second storm?..tune in..
yeah post it when it comes out ok
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Quoting ncstorm:


they could do a fujiwhara..
Nice, I have never seen one of those in the Atlantic Basin. Well how bout we, lets dance.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting LargoFl:
yes should be interesting to see tomorrow's runs


the 12z Euro runs at 2pm EST today..will it continue to show the second storm?..tune in..
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Quoting LargoFl:
GFS has changed now..at this time last i checked it was sitting off NC..now it has it stalled off the coast, for at least 60 hours or more..im watching This storm closely, the runs will change once again in the next few days...


She could sit out there for a month, that'd be great.

That being said, rarely do tropical systems do what they're asked.
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Quoting Grothar:
I have to admit, this is quite a bit shift west than the previous run




say GRO, wildest guess, but if this does go into the islands, are we in trouble? once there wouldnt it keep going west aways?
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 1143 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN ASCENSION PARISH REPORTED
THAT RISING WATER MAY OVERTOP A PUMPING STATION STRUCTURE. IF THE
STRUCTURE IS OVERTOPPED...FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

* AS A PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN
ORDERED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ASCENSION PARISH INCLUDING THE
COMMUNITIES ST. AMANT...ACY AND SORRENTO. PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT OR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CONCERNING THE VOLUNTARY EVACUATION.
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I have to admit, this is quite a bit shift west than the previous run




Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27477
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's quite an unusual statistic. It may be coincidence, but even coincidences need to sometimes be explained.
I've been thinking of this as well. Maybe it is the "initial" size of the storm that is related to its forcasted intensity. Storms usually grow as they go on, but didn't Isaac start off pretty large, right off the bat? Maybe there is something to be said about this possible relationship. We may need more samples of storms that fit this criteria to validate it. Who knows, there may be something to this theory.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Wouldn't a trough split push Leslie closer to the US?


they could do a fujiwhara..
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Link
Voluntary evacuation in my hometown... Isaac has done a number here!
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Quoting ncstorm:


The Euro is seeing a trough split off the SE coast while the GFS isnt..could make the difference in track..
Wouldn't a trough split push Leslie closer to the US?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting dartboardmodel:
"IT NOW APPEARS THAT LESLIE
WILL MISS A TROUGH FORECAST TO DIVE OFFSHORE OF NORTH AMERICA...AND
WILL BE CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS IN THE LONG
RANGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE
NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AT THOSE
TIMES."-NHC

Well there you have it folks, they have the slightest clue where it is going... again.

Just close your eyes, throw a dart and see where it lands and take a few peeks at the satelite pictures once in awhile and you have a very good reliable model!


Here we go again, another no-idea-where-it's-going storm. Hopefully she stays away from Florida and the Gulf, we don't need the rain.
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Quoting dartboardmodel:
"IT NOW APPEARS THAT LESLIE
WILL MISS A TROUGH FORECAST TO DIVE OFFSHORE OF NORTH AMERICA...AND
WILL BE CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS IN THE LONG
RANGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE
NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AT THOSE
TIMES."-NHC

Well there you have it folks, they have the slightest clue where it is going... again.

Just close your eyes, throw a dart and see where it lands and take a few peeks at the satelite pictures once in awhile and you have a very good reliable model!
How can you see where it lands if your eyes are already closed? LOL.
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Quoting ncstorm:


The Euro is seeing a trough split off the SE coast while the GFS isnt..could make the difference in track..
yes should be interesting to see tomorrow's runs
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Ouch..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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