Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Pirate999:


Hey neighbor. I'm off of 2351.. East side if 45.

I am in Nassau Bay right by NASA. Howdy to yall as well.

The president-elect of the American Meteorological Society, J. Marshall Shepherd, wrote a blog post about the Lessons from Isaac.

Lessons from Isaac: Communicating the hurricane hazard 

The Rain and Category Bias: A major concern for me is that media and public familiarity with the Saffir-Simpson (SS) scale leads to underestimation of the most deadly threat of a hurricane, inland freshwater flooding. It is very common to see a reporter on the beach in the wind, struggling to stand.  It is also common to focus on what the SS category of the storm is and when it will become a hurricane or a “category 3� storm. A gentleman from Plaquemines Parish, discussing a levee breach and severe flooding in the Parish said, “we didn’t leave because they were saying it was not going to be a Katrina, but we wish we did�. 

This illustrates, in my view, an over dependence on assuming threats are only associated with major hurricanes. In fact, our own studies have shown that weaker storms can be significant rain-flood producers. With Isaac, the storm was also very large in area and moving very slowly. This combination led to localized rainfall totals in the 20 to 30 inch range. The “water� from rainfall and flooding is just as significant as the wind and surge. Is it time to consider an augmentation of the Saffir Simpson scale to capture the rainfall-flood threat? It is a difficult science problem, but probably one worth investigating. I also argue that our media colleagues must consider their coverage strategy and category “anticipation� or hype carefully.



http://isaaclessons.blogspot.com/2012/08/as-meteo rologist-intrigued-by-storms.html

Quoting smartone:


I am in Nassau Bay right by NASA. Howdy to yall as well.

Can you see me waving? I'm in South Shore, looking out my window at the Nassau Bay Hilton this very minute. ;)

Quoting shoreacres:


Can you see me waving? I'm in South Shore, looking out my window at the Nassau Bay Hilton this very minute. ;)

OK cool. I work for HEB at the Blackhawk Store on Beltway 8 and I45. Actually I am filling in for the Seafood Manager at the HEB Clear Lake store for 2 more weeks. What do you do?

Quoting shoreacres:


Can you see me waving? I'm in South Shore, looking out my window at the Nassau Bay Hilton this very minute. ;)

All the folks from south of Houston. I'm in clear lake but drive by you to get to my boat in watergate.

Quoting carpentergrl:


The dam, or lock is on a diversion canal that connects the Bouge Chitto and Pearl Rivers in Northern St. Tammany Parish LA. It then runs parallel to the Pearl River southward. The failure is being called imminent at this point. This will allow water from BOTH rain swollen rivers to enter the Pearl River and flow downstream flooding the east side of LA 41.

I don't know the exact population, but would guess several hundred.

Is this the same dam officials were worried would fail a day ago?

Quoting carpentergrl:


The dam, or lock is on a diversion canal that connects the Bouge Chitto and Pearl Rivers in Northern St. Tammany Parish LA. It then runs parallel to the Pearl River southward. The failure is being called imminent at this point. This will allow water from BOTH rain swollen rivers to enter the Pearl River and flow downstream flooding the east side of LA 41.

I don't know the exact population, but would guess several hundred.

Looks like several hundred might be right.. Plenty of small subdivisions and homestead areas. I hope they stop the lock from failing and get the folks out.

What! No RI for Leslie, bummer babe.

So long as she stays on her side of 20X60 I'm happy.

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



The president-elect of the American Meteorological Society, J. Marshall Shepherd, wrote a blog post about the Lessons from Isaac.

Lessons from Isaac: Communicating the hurricane hazard 

The Rain and Category Bias: A major concern for me is that media and public familiarity with the Saffir-Simpson (SS) scale leads to underestimation of the most deadly threat of a hurricane, inland freshwater flooding. It is very common to see a reporter on the beach in the wind, struggling to stand.  It is also common to focus on what the SS category of the storm is and when it will become a hurricane or a “category 3â€� storm. A gentleman from Plaquemines Parish, discussing a levee breach and severe flooding in the Parish said, “we didn’t leave because they were saying it was not going to be a Katrina, but we wish we didâ€�. 

This illustrates, in my view, an over dependence on assuming threats are only associated with major hurricanes. In fact, our own studies have shown that weaker storms can be significant rain-flood producers. With Isaac, the storm was also very large in area and moving very slowly. This combination led to localized rainfall totals in the 20 to 30 inch range. The “water� from rainfall and flooding is just as significant as the wind and surge. Is it time to consider an augmentation of the Saffir Simpson scale to capture the rainfall-flood threat? It is a difficult science problem, but probably one worth investigating. I also argue that our media colleagues must consider their coverage strategy and category “anticipation� or hype carefully.



http://isaaclessons.blogspot.com/2012/08/as-meteo rologist-intrigued-by-storms.html

i totaly agree with this, way too much was said about, its only a cat-1, just look at the flooding and damage,after the water subsides, it would not surprise me if whole neighborhoods have to be bulldozed due to the deadly mold that will surely happen..could be..whole towns, we will have to see as time goes by...this is not over by a long shot..gee

Quoting islandgirls:
Good afternoon all! Stormcaribbean's closest point of Leslie's passing on Sunday 5:00am was 300 plus miles now the closest point for the same time is 276.4 miles. Is there any chance of Leslie passing even closer (to Antigua)?

..here's the latest... THE
NEW NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE TRACK A BIT FASTER AND LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS. THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT INVOLVES THE INTERACTION OF MANY
FEATURES...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC...A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE
OF FLORIDA...AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...WHICH ENDS UP BEING A BIT SLOWER AND WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

Quoting victoriahurricane:


Is this the same dam officials were worried would fail a day ago?

No.

This is an entirely different river basin several dozen miles to the east, which is completely on the other side of St. Tammany, the next parish to the east.

On TWC a spokesperson for the parish said there are 1200 families in the immediate area, and they are using Reverse 9-1-1 calls to warn everyone to leave, and taking them out by buses where possible.


The Tangipahoa River is in Tangipahoa Parish; that's the river that was supposedly going to have a dam failure to the north in Percy Quinn state park in Mississippi. Tangipahoa river is still having problems, but probably won't break the record flood stage. It is supposed to flow over highways 190 and highway 22 in several places, but is still going to be about a foot and a half below the previous record.

Quoting victoriahurricane:


Is this the same dam officials were worried would fail a day ago?

No, that was the Tangipahoa River and Lake Dam in Mississippi. It is directly north of LA 55 and effected the towns of Kentwood to Robert Louisiana.

We are only miles from the Mississippi border on the south eastern side of the state: The Pearl River divides the two states. We are located above Slidell LA if you follow LA 41 and Covington, LA if you follow LA 21 north.

great site here about Mold after the flooding, give you tipsLink

Quoting RTSplayer:


No.

This is an entirely different river basin several dozen miles to the east, which is completely on the other side of St. Tammany, the next parish to the east.

On TWC a spokesperson for the parish said there are 1200 families in the immediate area, and they are using Reverse 9-1-1 calls to warn everyone to leave, and taking them out by buses where possible.


The Tangipahoa River is in Tangipahoa Parish; that's the river that was supposedly going to have a dam failure to the north in Percy Quinn state park in Mississippi. Tangipahoa river is still having problems, but probably won't break the record flood stage. It is supposed to flow over highways 190 and highway 22 in several places, but is still going to be about a foot and a half below the previous record.

People were lined up waiting on the buses 40 minutes ago when I spoke to a friend who lives in the evac area. I live in Bush, LA and am about 3/4 mile outside the mandatory evacuation area.

Quoting carpentergrl:


People were lined up waiting on the buses 40 minutes ago when I spoke to a friend who lives in the evac area. I live in Bush, LA and am about 3/4 mile outside the mandatory evacuation area.

3/4 of a mile? That's a little close don't you think?

GFS 144 hrs. I have my doubts about the intensity and the track is highly uncertain as highlighted by the NHC. So take this for what its worth.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
I'm reluctant to go with the next layer down, so this is the 700-850 mb. steering layer for a storm between 1000-1010 mb. pressure.

I'm confused about that steering winds graphic. It shows a very deep low pressure system in the Gulf, almost as if Isaac was still there. What's the deal with that?

Quoting SFLWeatherman:

I could not believe the nws saying it was still flooding there this morning.

That post is exactly why I think it would be great to do a 33.3% system. 1 each for wind, rain and surge. We have surge models so we can calculate that, we have rainfall rates so we can calculate that too. On a scale of 1-5 each category is rated and then all 3 are added together and then divided by 3. With the rain and surge on that scale Isaac would've at least been a category 3 and people would've paid attention to the destructive power he had. I know some have mentioned size as well, but with this system you can just rate ateared of coastline from 1-5 on what effects would be felt. Mississippi and Louisiana coast would probably be a 3 Alabama a 2 and so on and so forth rather then just tropical storm/hurricane. What do you guys think of that? I think it'd be much better because the water is almost always the killer.

2006 Chris:


Leslie:

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



The president-elect of the American Meteorological Society, J. Marshall Shepherd, wrote a blog post about the Lessons from Isaac.

Lessons from Isaac: Communicating the hurricane hazard 

The Rain and Category Bias: A major concern for me is that media and public familiarity with the Saffir-Simpson (SS) scale leads to underestimation of the most deadly threat of a hurricane, inland freshwater flooding. It is very common to see a reporter on the beach in the wind, struggling to stand.  It is also common to focus on what the SS category of the storm is and when it will become a hurricane or a %u201Ccategory 3%u201D storm. A gentleman from Plaquemines Parish, discussing a levee breach and severe flooding in the Parish said, %u201Cwe didn%u2019t leave because they were saying it was not going to be a Katrina, but we wish we did%u201D. 

This illustrates, in my view, an over dependence on assuming threats are only associated with major hurricanes. In fact, our own studies have shown that weaker storms can be significant rain-flood producers. With Isaac, the storm was also very large in area and moving very slowly. This combination led to localized rainfall totals in the 20 to 30 inch range. The %u201Cwater%u201D from rainfall and flooding is just as significant as the wind and surge. Is it time to consider an augmentation of the Saffir Simpson scale to capture the rainfall-flood threat? It is a difficult science problem, but probably one worth investigating. I also argue that our media colleagues must consider their coverage strategy and category %u201Canticipation%u201D or hype carefully.



http://isaaclessons.blogspot.com/2012/08/as-meteo rologist-intrigued-by-storms.html

NHC is as much at fault as anyone, as they are the ones who focus so much on SS scale, and never even mention alternative intensity scaling systems, of which I know at least two others, which should probably be used in some cases to help communicate the threat.



To be honest, TWC used to use a two-dimensional damage assessment curve for hurricanes, especially during the time John Hope and Steve Lyons were there, in which you'd see them plot out how surge and rain threats increase as forward speed slows, or as size increased. They don't do that any more, and maybe they should start doing that as well again. (Not blaming TWC).



this is what's wrong with both the SS scale and the practice of defining "intensity" by either wind or pressure.




Given the choice of being hit by one or the other, I'd take Andrew.

Hi folks, just got power - Isaac's eye wall passed just to the SW of us giving us many many 65+mph gusts & FLOODING like we haven't seen since the great 1983 Louisiana flood... houses taking water in that we never thought possible... Issac was a fiesty lil booger LOL

my take on Leslie so far:

if Leslie continues this trend, watch out Puerto Rico... y'all will get some action soon... It's not TOTALLY out of the question that the LLC going NW could fizzle and the "blob" could form its own low... very interesting looking on satellite....

Quoting victoriahurricane:


Is this the same dam officials were worried would fail a day ago?

No, different one.
My neighborhood and all the ones along the Pearl in Slidell are on flood watch as well.
I am in Florida, figured why sit around with no electricity.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
GFS 144 hrs. I have my doubts about the intensity and the track is highly uncertain as highlighted by the NHC. So take this for what its worth.

I'll give you a buck and a half for it. :) The intensity looks way overdone, but the location looks about right. All the models want to have Leslie move north towards the weakness in the ridge and then get caugt in the doldrums. I can see her sitting there and spinning six days from now.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

3/4 of a mile? That's a little close don't you think?

We are not under any type of evacuation order where we are at, which is 3/4 miles from LA 41...not the canal or river: it is further east of the road. We are also uphill from that area a good bit. The sheriff told my friend that they expect 10 feet of water where she is located. They estimated that if the water reaches close to us it will be inches.

I am watching closely though since their are numerous creeks in the area. We do have a boat and large truck if needed. If I am told to go, I will do so. However, I do have a broken right arm and standard shift vehicle, so the going will be slow. :(

Quoting smartone:


OK cool. I work for HEB at the Blackhawk Store on Beltway 8 and I45. Actually I am filling in for the Seafood Manager at the HEB Clear Lake store for 2 more weeks. What do you do?

I've got my own business - varnish boats. ;)

Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
Hi folks, just got power - Isaac's eye wall passed just to the SW of us giving us many many 65+mph gusts & FLOODING like we haven't seen since the great 1983 Louisiana flood... houses taking water in that we never thought possible... Issac was a fiesty lil booger LOL

my take on Leslie so far:

if Leslie continues this trend, watch out Puerto Rico... y'all will get some action soon... It's not TOTALLY out of the question that the LLC going NW could fizzle and the "blob" could form its own low... very interesting looking on satellite....

glad you got your power back and are safe, so many flooding reports all over the place there..and rivers are building..its not over yet..good luck up there

Looking at last Visible, looks like the MLC might have drawn the LLC underneath it, not sure though!

Quoting LargoFl:
..here's the latest... THE
NEW NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE TRACK A BIT FASTER AND LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS. THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT INVOLVES THE INTERACTION OF MANY
FEATURES...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC...A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE
OF FLORIDA...AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...WHICH ENDS UP BEING A BIT SLOWER AND WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

o.k thanks......watching Leslie closely

IF it does NOT make that turn we could be in trouble again

I see some people on here are saying the practically Naked Swirl that is Leslie is Making a comeback ... I think she is might be in some major trouble ..
Look at her Now :



and look what she is facing into while being exposed :



and nevermind the shear that she will be moving into ...Seriously dont bet your life savings on this Babe becoming a cane JMO

Quoting VR46L:
I see some people on here are saying the practically Naked Swirl that is Leslie is Making a comeback ... I think she is might be in some major trouble ..
Look at her Now :



and look what she is facing into while being exposed :



and nevermind the shear that she will be moving into ...Seriously dont bet your life saving on this Babe becoming a cane JMO

would be nice if she died off

Quoting sar2401:


I'm confused about that steering winds graphic. It shows a very deep low pressure system in the Gulf, almost as if Isaac was still there. What's the deal with that?

I believe tha is actually a strong high sitting over the gulf, not a low.

I told you guys that Bermuda was safe from Leslie. Bermuda is like a needle in a haystack to these storms.

Quoting VR46L:
I see some people on here are saying the practically Naked Swirl that is Leslie is Making a comeback ... I think she is might be in some major trouble ..
Look at her Now :



and look what she is facing into while being exposed :



and nevermind the shear that she will be moving into ...Seriously dont bet your life savings on this Babe becoming a cane JMO

Yes, I think she's making a comeback for now at least and in no way would I bet anything on it not even a penny!!

Leslie is out running itself in dual directions

Quoting sar2401:


I'll give you a buck and a half for it. :) The intensity looks way overdone, but the location looks about right. All the models want to have Leslie move north towards the weakness in the ridge and then get caugt in the doldrums. I can see her sitting there and spinning six days from now.

Hey what happened to the other half? I agree she will move north into the weakness, but any acceleration to the NE right away doesn't seem likely with a lack of troughs blowing by. Also, I think her track depends on many factors, like intensity and ULL's nearby as well as the possibility of a trough split off the East Coast that could form a quick spin-up.

Quoting stormpetrol:


Yes, I think she's making a comeback for now at least and in no way would I bet anything on it not even a penny!!

LOL ...Wise man

Mindya I only said that she is facing major trouble which I evidenced but she could be a stuborn lady and dig her heels in ...who knows ....Just the odds at the moment are stacked against her IMO

Quoting BDADUDE:
I told you guys that Bermuda was safe from Leslie. Bermuda is like a needle in a haystack to these storms.

Again, don't bet on it.

Quoting Charliesgirl:


No, different one.
My neighborhood and all the ones along the Pearl in Slidell are on flood watch as well.
I am in Florida, figured why sit around with no electricity.

Correct, the one in MS is at Lake Tangipahoa. That situation has been stabilized and doesn't present any immediate risks.

The possible failure of Lock #2 on the Pearl River Diversion Canal appears to be almost a mirror image of some of the early paniced reporting by local media, fed by Twitter and FB. The evacuation area is much smaller than most media is reporting, and it appears that the Corps of Engineers and the local and state departments of transportation and engineering are begining to stabilize the situation at the lock. This is from the St. Tammany Parish EOC:

Sat. 5:15 pm (CDT)
There is confusion about the mandatory evacuation area. The area is from Lock 2 in the community of Bush reaching south to Hickory/36, south to Hwy 41. The Town of Pearl River is NOT included, nor are any other areas to the south. This is the only area with an evacuation order.

The STP Dept of Engineering is working to relieve the pressure on the dam at this time

Link is at http://www.stpgov.org/emergency.php. I wish people would use information from offical sources rather than relying on some of the unreliable and inflammatory news reports I've been reading.

Smart move to get out until electricity and other utilities have been restored. It makes a lot more sense than sitting in a hot, dark house when you have other options.

GREAT to see you Pat!

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hey what happened to the other half? I agree she will move north into the weakness, but any acceleration to the NE right away doesn't seem likely with a lack of troughs blowing by. Also, I think her track depends on many factors, like intensity and ULL's nearby as well as the possibility of a trough split off the East Coast that could form a quick spin-up.

Indeed, there are a lot of similarities between Leslie and Isaac. Large, relatively disorganized storms, poorly defined and shifting centers, and a lot of contaminating environmental factors. Thankfully, barring something totally unexpected, the Antilles will be spared from anything more than maybe an outer rainband. Assuming she does move north, the steering currents are so weak that it's hard to see getting anything to move her until the predicted trough gets to the east coast next weekend. That's when things will get really interesting.

Welcome back Pat. Hope you and your familly fared well. Can we get a puppy update?

Thanx CRS.. I'll be doing a storm report as soon as the cobweb's clear.

Never, never have I've been thru one like Isaac.

And fo sure..we don't wanna go dat route EVER again.


Im damn proud of my Son, the fam..and wunderground as well.

Quoting Patrap:
Back from da other side,..

..Dat sure was interesting

Nice to see you back in the 21st century, Pat. I assume the puppies are probably the most happy members of the household now. :)