Unanswered questions concerning Hurricane Isaac

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:35 PM GMT on August 31, 2012

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The top winds of Tropical Depression Isaac have fallen to 25 mph, but the storm continues to be a potent rain-maker as it heads north-northwest at 11 mph into Missouri. Isaac has spawned up to 20 suspected tornadoes, brought storm surges as high as 13.6' to the coast (in Lake Borgne, LA), and dumped 20" of rain at one station in New Orleans. The 13.27" of rain that fell at Hattiesburg, MS broke the record for wettest August in the city's history (previous record: 13.03" in 1987.) Major flooding is occurring on seven rivers in Louisiana and Mississippi. Isaac is being blamed for at least four deaths in the U.S., 24 in Haiti, and five in the Dominican Republic.

A few notable rainfall totals from Isaac, through 11 am EDT on Friday:

20.08" New Orleans, LA
15.02" Marion, MS
13.99" Pascagoula, MS
13.27" Hattiesburg, MS
10.85" Gulfport, MS
10.39" Slidell, LA
10.17" Biloxi, MS
9.85" Mobile, AL
7.38" Pine Bluff, AR
5.95" Baton Rouge, LA

A major reason for Isaac's heavy rainfall totals has been its very slow motion. This slow speed was due to the fact Isaac has been bumping into a ridge of high pressure that is unusually strong, due to the intense drought over the center of the U.S.; strong drought-amplified high pressure areas are very resistant to allowing any low pressure areas to intrude into their domain. The high pressure area was strong enough this week to allow several all-time records for heat this late in the year to be set:

112° on August 29 at Winner, SD
108° on August 29 at Valentine, NE
107° on August 29 at Corpus Christi, TX
97° on August 29 at Denver, CO (2nd highest so late in the year)


Figure 1. Nighttime view of Hurricane Isaac taken at 1:57 am CDT August 29, 2012, by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi-NPP satellite. The VIIRS day-night band detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared, and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. In this case, the clouds of Isaac were lit by moonlight. Image credit: NASA.

Isaac's beneficial rains falling in drought-stricken regions
Hurricanes get a lot of attention because of the billions in damage they cost, and the lives they disrupt. AIR Worldwide estimated today that insured damage from Isaac would cost up to $2 billion. This does not include damage to infrastructure or uninsured damage, so the final price tag of Isaac's rampage will be more like $3 - $5 billion. However, Isaac is now dumping beneficial rains over Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky--regions stricken by the worst drought since the 1950s or 1930s, depending upon the exact location. These regions need 9 - 18 inches of rain to pull them out of drought. Isaac's 3 - 6 inches of rain will not end the drought, but will put a pretty good dent in it. I expect that 3 - 6 inches of rain for a wide swath of prime agricultural land in extreme drought is probably worth at least $5 billion, when you consider that a recent estimate by a Purdue economist put the cost of the great drought of 2012 at more than $77 billion. Only Hurricane Katrina ($146 billion) and the drought of 1988 ($78 billion) have been more expensive disasters, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Unfortunately, Isaac's arrival is poorly timed, as the storm is arriving during harvest season. The strong winds associated with the storm will flatten many crops, making it more difficult to harvest them, and Isaac's winds may cost farmers several hundred million dollars due to unharvestable crops. Still, the rains from Isaac will be highly beneficial for the success of the upcoming winter wheat season, and for next year's growing season.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the five-day period ending on Tuesday evening shows that Isaac is expected to bring a large region of 3 - 6 inches of rain (red, orange, and brown colors) to Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 3. The great drought of 2012 has brought so little rain to the Midwest that some areas require over 15" of rain (dark purple colors) to end the drought. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

Unanswered questions about Hurricane Isaac

1. Did the passage of Hurricane Isaac stir up oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill? Isaac was the first hurricane to pass over the site of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill. We know that large hurricanes are capable of creating currents in deep water at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico; Hurricane Ivan caused upwelling currents of 0.5 cm/s at a depth of about 500 meters. In an August 28 article in the Huffington Post, Nick Shay, professor of meteorology and physical oceanography at the University of Miami, said: "Winds will push water away from the center of a storm, which causes an upwelling as the ocean tries to adjust. It brings whatever is near the bottom up higher in the water column and currents can then push it towards the coast." Up to 1 million barrels of oil from the spill are estimated to still be present in the deep water sediment, on beaches, and in the marshes of Louisiana, and it is possible some of this oil will wash up on the Gulf Coast in coming months. The storm surge of Isaac also likely flushed out oil lodged in the coastal marshes of Louisiana, but it is unknown how much of a concern this might be.

2. What's the deal with these super-sized Category 1 and 2 hurricanes that have been hitting the U.S.? The past three landfalling hurricanes in the U.S.--Isaac (2012), Irene (2011), and Ike (2008)--have all been exceptionally large, among the top ten on record for horizontal extent of tropical storm-force winds. Each of these storms had an unusually low pressure characteristic of a storm one full Saffir-Simpson category stronger. Is this the new normal for U.S. hurricanes?

3. Did the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system cause worse flooding elsewhere? Whenever a new levee or flood control structure is created, you make someone else's flood problem worse, since the water has to go somewhere. Where did the water was stopped by the new $1.1 billion, 1.8 mile-long Lake Borgne flood barrier on the east side of New Orleans go? Did it flow south and contribute to the overtopping of the levees near Braithwaite? Or did it go north and contribute to the 36 hours of storm surge in excess of 5' observed along the Mississippi coast at Waveland? I posed this question to NHC's storm surge expert Jaime Rhome, and he said it was impossible to know without doing detailed storm surge modeling studies.

4. Can only hurricanes beginning with the letter "I" hit the U.S. now? Isaac (2012), Irene (2011), and Ike (2008) are the last three hurricanes to hit the U.S. It turns out that hurricanes that begin with the letter "I" and "C" have more names on the list of retired hurricanes than any other letter (nine each.) I'm thinking Isaac will get its name retired, letting storms beginning with "I" take over sole possession of first place on the retired storms list.

Hurricane Kirk in the Central Atlantic
Hurricane Kirk intensified into a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane this morning, becoming the 2nd strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Hurricane Gordon was the only stronger storm; Gordon hit sustained winds of 110 mph just before reaching the Azores Islands on August 18. Kirk has probably peaked in intensity, and is about to move over colder waters and gradually decay. Kirk is not a threat to any land areas.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie.

Tropical Storm Leslie a long-range threat to Bermuda, Canada, and the U.S. East Coast
Tropical Storm Leslie formed on Thursday in the Central Atlantic. Leslie's formation date of August 30 puts 2012 in 2nd place for earliest formation date of the season's 12th tropical storm. Only 1995 had an earlier formation date of the season's 12th storm. With records dating back to 1851, this year is only the second time 8 total storms have formed in August. The other year was 2004, when the first storm of the season formed on August 1 (Alex), and the 8th storm (Hermine) formed on August 29th. Satellite loops show that Leslie has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and respectable low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow. Conditions appear ripe to allow Leslie to intensify into a Category 2 hurricane by Sunday. Fortunately, Hurricane Kirk is weakening the ridge of high pressure to the north of Leslie, and Leslie is expected to turn to the northwest and miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, steering currents for Leslie are expected to collapse early next week, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The storm will then slowly meander over the open ocean for many days, potentially threatening Bermuda. Leslie will stay stuck until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast around September 8. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie to the north and then northeast by September 9. At that time, Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in New England, Canada, or the Mid-Atlantic states. Leslie could also miss land entirely; this all depends upon the timing and strength of the September 8 trough of low pressure. Regardless, Leslie is expected to bring an extended period of high waves to the U.S. coast. According to NOAA's Wavewatch III model, large swells from Leslie will reach Bermuda by Monday, and arrive along the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday. These waves will be capable of creating dangerous rip currents and beach erosion.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to Isaac
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, are in Mississippi, helping out with Isaac relief efforts. You can check out their progress or donate to Portlight's disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website.

I'm planning on taking Saturday off, but will have a new post for you on Sunday. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Isaac Louisiana (apphotos)
People play in the storm surge from Hurricane Isaac, on Lakeshore Drive along Lake Pontchartrain, as the storm nears land, in New Orleans, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana
Portlight volunteers at Biloxi shelter (Portlight)
Portlight volunteers at Biloxi shelter
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana (apphotos)
Research students from the the University of Alabama measure wind speeds as Hurricane Isaac makes landfall, Wednesday, Aug. 29, 2012, in New Orleans, La. Isaac was packing 80 mph winds, making it a Category 1 hurricane. It came ashore early Tuesday near the mouth of the Mississippi River, driving a wall of water nearly 11 feet high inland and soaking a neck of land that stretches into the Gulf. The storm stalled for several hours before resuming a slow trek inland, and forecasters said that was
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana
TS Isaac (Raine911)
Between the rain bands
TS Isaac

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The ECMWF continues to indicate the possibility of a home-grown tropical cyclone off the East Coast of Florida. It also continues to show a very strong wave off the West Coast of Africa that could easily become a tropical system. This is in 8-10 days.
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1171. hydrus
Quoting indianrivguy:
I have written up a story from October 1884 that is mindful of the training feeder band event we just had here on the Florida southeast coast. It was not unprecedented, just the latest. I hope y'all find it interesting.

Big water event in Southeast Florida October 1884

An excerpt, Miami Beach October 1884;
In October of that year (1884) occurred the greatest and longest rainfall ever known on the east coast since its earliest settlement. It poured down for eight days and nights, slacking at times for a few minutes, but never stopping: then come down again harder than ever if that were possible. The whole southern part of the state, with the exception of higher ground was inundated. All hollows on the beach ridge east of Indian Creek were full of water. Our road to the landing on the creek crossed one of these swales, now it was arm deep and we were compelled to build a bridge over it in order to reach our boats without almost swimming in crossing this place.
I wonder if it was caused by a tropical cyclone. Gulf or Atlantic.?Good to see you posting again. I hope you feel better. I should WU-Mail you about what happened to me here with health issues ..Patten to become more amplified again after a nice zonal episode..Also means severe weather in the form of frontal boundaries.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i think we been tracking the MLC and not the low level center


On the visible the COC does seem to be around 17N 54W.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Really I can't believe its at 18.3N, when the Windsat I just posted would suggest its below 17N and that is within a few hours.



i think we been tracking the MLC and not the low level center
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Quoting hydrus:
Leslie appears to be having some trouble this morning.Outflow seems good on the eastern side.

\

Centre looks to me about 17N 54W?
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Leslie has an 84 hour battle with wind shear to face. It will lower after that time.

SHEAR (KT) 17 19 21 19 24 29 27 21 22 12 8 10 7

Quoting lobdelse81:

Does this shut down possibilities for a US strike from a major hurricane for the rest of the season?

Definitely not. It's actually very dangerous for the end of the season, because any storm in the Caribbean would be pulled north and NE into Florida.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

...LESLIE STRUGGLING AGAINST SHEAR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 55.7W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


Really I can't believe its at 18.3N, when the Windsat I just posted would suggest its below 17N and that is within a few hours.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8306
Quoting StormHype:
Looked at GFS and Euro. Looks like some big time troughiness going to setup on the east coast of the US just in time for peak season. Putting up the "Gone Fishing" sign for a couple weeks.

Does this shut down possibilities for a US strike from a major hurricane for the rest of the season?
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TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT LESLIE REMAINS A SHEARED CYCLONE
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE BAND. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 60 KT AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES. IT SEEMS LIKE
THE WINDOW FOR LESLIE TO BECOME A HURRICANE IS CLOSING AS
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED. THIS SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN CIRRUS
CLOUD MOTIONS NEAR THE CENTER...ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE ANALYSES
FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR WILL PERSIST OR EVEN INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LESLIE IS CAUGHT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED DURING THAT
TIME...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SHEAR
COULD RELAX IN A FEW DAYS...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN
THE LONG RANGE...CONTINUING THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES REQUIRE A REPOSITIONING OF LESLIE ABOUT
30 N MI WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FIXES...GIVING A LONG-TERM MOTION OF
ABOUT 290/16. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
AS IT MOVES AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THEN TURN NORTHWARD IN A FEW DAYS AS IT NEARS A BREAK IN
THE RIDGE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER IN GENERAL...SHOWING
ENOUGH RIDGING EAST OF LESLIE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM TOTALLY
STALLING OUT AS SUGGESTED IN EARLIER MODEL CYCLES. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER AND LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOSTLY DUE
TO THE CENTER REPOSITIONING.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1244
UTC ASCAT PASS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 18.3N 55.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 19.4N 57.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 21.0N 59.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 22.7N 61.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 24.1N 62.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 26.0N 62.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 27.5N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 29.0N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I think Bermuda will get more impacts then what the NHC says. I could see a brush with the islands but I think Canada should be safe. Anything could happen and the US and Canada should still monitor Leslie.


Agreed. Its all very well to talk about Leslie's COC following official track, but with the amount of convection there, it is coming very close to the islands. Plus, she has not becoming a hurricane yet and maybe that she has not strengthened will keep her further west than expected.

I am biased because I always felt the expected NW turn was too sharp. I thought with how they expected that turn and NW move, we in the islands would be very far from her.

As it is there are a few stray sprayed clouds here around Barbados now and if she is that far north, not sure these should be showing up? Dunno about this.\
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

...LESLIE STRUGGLING AGAINST SHEAR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 55.7W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Good idea where the center was 5 hours , still below 17N IMO.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8306
Quoting VR46L:
Bit of a wave getting ready to come off the coast...


What is causing the African waves to come off the coast at such a high latitude??
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It really does look like Leslie is consolidating around a new LLC in the S/SE of the storm. At least it appears that way on WV and Dvorak.

If that's the case we could be looking at a very different track for the storm.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:
Isn't Isaac still a TD? NHC still lists it as active.

The NHC made its final advisory a couple days ago but the HPC is still writing advisories.
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half of Leslie, quite a strong storm.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8306
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormKirk at 1Sept.6pm
CVU-Corvo,Azores :: LPA-GranCanaria

The southernmost dot on the kinked line is where TropicalStormKirk became HurricaneKirk
The kinked line traces H.Kirk's 1st day of travel
The southernmost dot on the longest line is where H.Kirk became TS.Kirk again, and its most recently reported position.

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Kirk's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to the Azores
1Sept.6pm: TS.Kirk was heading for passage 547miles(880kilometres)NWest of Corvo

Copy&paste cvu, sma, pxo, lpa, 27.6n50.0w- 28.5n50.5w- 29.6n50.7w- 30.6n50.9w- 31.6n50.5w, 31.6n50.5w-33.1n50.0w, 33.1n50.0w-34.5n48.9w, 34.5n48.9w-36.5n47.3w, 34.5n48.9w-45.007n39.101w, 39.725n31.122w-45.007n39.101w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
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Quoting Bobbyweather:
Isn't Isaac still a TD? NHC still lists it as active.

The NHC is no longer writing advisories on it, but the HPC is.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL092012
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 93.0W
ABOUT 43 MILES...80 KM...WSW OF COLUMBIA MISSOURI.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...40 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 52 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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Quoting Bobbyweather:
Isn't Isaac still a TD? NHC still lists it as active.



nop they did the final advisory days a go
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Isn't Isaac still a TD? NHC still lists it as active.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Leslie looks very menacing...
Personally. This might actually make a brush at the islands, IMO. I'm seeing that Leslie will go further left in the NHC's track and be a possible contender for Bermuda and Canada.

I think Bermuda will get more impacts then what the NHC says. I could see a brush with the islands but I think Canada should be safe. Anything could happen and the US and Canada should still monitor Leslie.
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Quoting Grothar:

Leslie looks very menacing...
Personally. This might actually make a brush at the islands, IMO. I'm seeing that Leslie will go further left in the NHC's track and be a possible contender for Bermuda and Canada.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Glad to hear you're all right. Hope they get the tree off your house with no damage. I had the same thing happen with Rita, though my tree wasn't as big.


Thanks so much. I am at work today. Normally we aren't open on Saturdays but we need to get caught up. Besides a lot of our employees have no power and undrinkable water so they are HAPPY to be here.
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I have written up a story from October 1884 that is mindful of the training feeder band event we just had here on the Florida southeast coast. It was not unprecedented, just the latest. I hope y'all find it interesting.

Big water event in Southeast Florida October 1884

An excerpt, Miami Beach October 1884;
In October of that year (1884) occurred the greatest and longest rainfall ever known on the east coast since its earliest settlement. It poured down for eight days and nights, slacking at times for a few minutes, but never stopping: then come down again harder than ever if that were possible. The whole southern part of the state, with the exception of higher ground was inundated. All hollows on the beach ridge east of Indian Creek were full of water. Our road to the landing on the creek crossed one of these swales, now it was arm deep and we were compelled to build a bridge over it in order to reach our boats without almost swimming in crossing this place.
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Quoting BDAwx:
why is there no hurricane hunter mission scheduled into Leslie?





they will likey scheduled some in today in there out look

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Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
Good morning everyone from Slidell Louisiana. After 5 days I am still without power and I have a 60 foot pine tree leaning on my house. Thankfully there is no hole in my roof although I'm told not to stay there because the insurance company is afraid the tree might fall. So I'm staying at Grandma's house. She is high and dry in Eden isles and she has power. What a crazy freaking storm!!!!


Glad to hear you're all right. Hope they get the tree off your house with no damage. I had the same thing happen with Rita, though my tree wasn't as big.
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1144. BDAwx
why is there no hurricane hunter mission scheduled into Leslie?
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system@30n35w.could.get.aname
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1142. Grothar
This will be the key player as to where Leslie will go. The remnants of Isaac. A 2nd trough is building behind it and should move into place in enough time to move Leslie, North and NE.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 28086
1141. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


You think the MLC is dropping to the surface or a new LLC has formed??


Seeing lower level cloud motion I would say a new LLC, though this is just what I see.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8768
Good morning everyone from Slidell Louisiana. After 5 days I am still without power and I have a 60 foot pine tree leaning on my house. Thankfully there is no hole in my roof although I'm told not to stay there because the insurance company is afraid the tree might fall. So I'm staying at Grandma's house. She is high and dry in Eden isles and she has power. What a crazy freaking storm!!!!
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Lucy going to have to do some splaining I think @11am.
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1138. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 28086
Quoting JLPR2:
Hmm... Looks to me like Leslie is expulsing her old LLC which I believe is the area accelerating NW around 19n 55.2w and a new one is taking its place slightly to the SE around 17.5n 54w. IMO



You think the MLC is dropping to the surface or a new LLC has formed?
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Quoting Grothar:


Here, I moved it up a little. Hope it helps.


That helps us, thanks. That cheered me up some.
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1135. GetReal



700-850mb



500-850mb



400-850mb



The latest steering would indicate that the trough weakness to the north has flattened out, and the weakness that was present yesterday at this time has closed significantly, as the Azores ridge builds west to the north of Leslie. IMO Leslie should begin a more westerly track and may pose a threat to the N Antilles. I'm in the camp that a HH should be scheduled, especially if a more NW track is not started by Leslie in next 12 hours.
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1134. Grothar
Quoting wxchaser97:

Well if that's the case I'm in SE MI, send it our way:)


Here, I moved it up a little. Hope it helps.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 28086
Quoting Grothar:


Where are you? I'll see what I can do.

Well if that's the case I'm in SE MI, send it our way:)
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1132. JLPR2
Hmm... Looks to me like Leslie is expulsing her old LLC which I believe is the area accelerating NW around 19n 55.2w and a new one is taking its place slightly to the SE around 17.5n 54w. IMO

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8768
1131. Grothar
Quoting wxchaser97:

If only that rain could be pushed up ~100 miles, it would help a lot where I am.


Where are you? I'll see what I can do.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 28086
Quoting yqt1001:


Looks like the new convection is over the ATCF center coordinates.

Yeah I noticed that, Leslie is slowly strengthening.
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1129. sar2401
Quoting leftlink:


I have updated the blog page for a "modified saffir simpson scale"

LINK

Basically, the concept is coming into focus and I would love more comments. The first part of the idea is to add some additional categories (strong tropical storm, and category 6):



The second part of the idea is to require that a large wind field or super-fast flight level winds to "override" a measure of the storm by wind alone. I am thinking that it would just bump up the storm's intensity by one level. So there would be a rule requiring Isaac to be reported as a category 2 -- mainly because of its large wind field.

It also seems to me that if there are 140kt flight level winds over water but only 90kts have come down to the surface (is this possible?), the category scale should anticipate that the flight level winds will eventually reach the surface when a landfall occurs so this would also warrant a "bump-up" -- in this case from a Cat 2 to a Cat 3.

Feel free to comment here or add detailed information HERE


If I'm not mistaken, Isaac had some flight level winds that were about 115 knots, and those never mixed down to the surface, even at landfall. In large storms with poorly defined centers, that may happen more often than not. I don't think we know enough about that kind of wind transport to include it in a rating scale with any confidence.

What seems to make sense to me is rating storms based on their total kinetic energy. The larger a storm is (in terms of area), how long it lasts from genesis to landfall, and the amount of water being pushed along with a storm, combined with wind speed, should alow us to come up with a total kinetic energy rating scale, which may be a better rating in terms of a storm's impact on land.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 21320
Quoting Grothar:
Heavy rain for the Northeast. The troughiness could also help move Leslie more North and Northeast.


If only that rain could be pushed up ~100 miles, it would help a lot where I am.
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1127. Grothar
Heavy rain for the Northeast. The troughiness could also help move Leslie more North and Northeast.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 28086
1126. yqt1001


Looks like the new convection is over the ATCF center coordinates.
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Quoting hydrus:
Leslie appears to be having some trouble this morning.Outflow seems good on the eastern side.


JUST like the other storms....this one will struggle
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Quoting K8eCane:
The NHC has it right considering the conditions . She will likely follow Kirk. IMO if she were to get within say 500 miles of the islands and still had not made the turn, they would consider sending HH aircraft. Has anyone heard from Patrap and the Pups?
Uptown area
littered with downed trees. No power there for a few
more days. No traffic lights working. It is the wild,
wild west at intersections. Water still rising on the
north shore from swollen rivers. Sorry this dissapointed
all the cat 5 wishcasters.
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Looks like Leslie is pulling a Chris...
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1122. flcanes
Quoting leftlink:


I have updated the blog page for a "modified saffir simpson scale"

LINK

Basically, the concept is coming into focus and I would love more comments. The first part of the idea is to add some additional categories (strong tropical storm, and category 6):



The second part of the idea is to allow a large wind field or super-fast flight level winds to "override" a measure of the storm by wind alone. I am thinking that it would just bump up the storm's intensity by one level. So there would be a rule requiring Isaac to be reported as a category 2 -- mainly because of its large wind field.

It also seems to me that if there are 140kt flight level winds over water but only 90kts have come down to the surface (is this possible?), the category scale should anticipate that the flight level winds will eventually reach the surface when a landfall occurs so this would also warrant a "bump-up" -- in this case from a Cat 2 to a Cat 3.

Feel free to comment here or add detailed information HERE

yes
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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