Unanswered questions concerning Hurricane Isaac

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:35 PM GMT on August 31, 2012

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The top winds of Tropical Depression Isaac have fallen to 25 mph, but the storm continues to be a potent rain-maker as it heads north-northwest at 11 mph into Missouri. Isaac has spawned up to 20 suspected tornadoes, brought storm surges as high as 13.6' to the coast (in Lake Borgne, LA), and dumped 20" of rain at one station in New Orleans. The 13.27" of rain that fell at Hattiesburg, MS broke the record for wettest August in the city's history (previous record: 13.03" in 1987.) Major flooding is occurring on seven rivers in Louisiana and Mississippi. Isaac is being blamed for at least four deaths in the U.S., 24 in Haiti, and five in the Dominican Republic.

A few notable rainfall totals from Isaac, through 11 am EDT on Friday:

20.08" New Orleans, LA
15.02" Marion, MS
13.99" Pascagoula, MS
13.27" Hattiesburg, MS
10.85" Gulfport, MS
10.39" Slidell, LA
10.17" Biloxi, MS
9.85" Mobile, AL
7.38" Pine Bluff, AR
5.95" Baton Rouge, LA

A major reason for Isaac's heavy rainfall totals has been its very slow motion. This slow speed was due to the fact Isaac has been bumping into a ridge of high pressure that is unusually strong, due to the intense drought over the center of the U.S.; strong drought-amplified high pressure areas are very resistant to allowing any low pressure areas to intrude into their domain. The high pressure area was strong enough this week to allow several all-time records for heat this late in the year to be set:

112° on August 29 at Winner, SD
108° on August 29 at Valentine, NE
107° on August 29 at Corpus Christi, TX
97° on August 29 at Denver, CO (2nd highest so late in the year)


Figure 1. Nighttime view of Hurricane Isaac taken at 1:57 am CDT August 29, 2012, by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi-NPP satellite. The VIIRS day-night band detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared, and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. In this case, the clouds of Isaac were lit by moonlight. Image credit: NASA.

Isaac's beneficial rains falling in drought-stricken regions
Hurricanes get a lot of attention because of the billions in damage they cost, and the lives they disrupt. AIR Worldwide estimated today that insured damage from Isaac would cost up to $2 billion. This does not include damage to infrastructure or uninsured damage, so the final price tag of Isaac's rampage will be more like $3 - $5 billion. However, Isaac is now dumping beneficial rains over Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky--regions stricken by the worst drought since the 1950s or 1930s, depending upon the exact location. These regions need 9 - 18 inches of rain to pull them out of drought. Isaac's 3 - 6 inches of rain will not end the drought, but will put a pretty good dent in it. I expect that 3 - 6 inches of rain for a wide swath of prime agricultural land in extreme drought is probably worth at least $5 billion, when you consider that a recent estimate by a Purdue economist put the cost of the great drought of 2012 at more than $77 billion. Only Hurricane Katrina ($146 billion) and the drought of 1988 ($78 billion) have been more expensive disasters, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Unfortunately, Isaac's arrival is poorly timed, as the storm is arriving during harvest season. The strong winds associated with the storm will flatten many crops, making it more difficult to harvest them, and Isaac's winds may cost farmers several hundred million dollars due to unharvestable crops. Still, the rains from Isaac will be highly beneficial for the success of the upcoming winter wheat season, and for next year's growing season.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the five-day period ending on Tuesday evening shows that Isaac is expected to bring a large region of 3 - 6 inches of rain (red, orange, and brown colors) to Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 3. The great drought of 2012 has brought so little rain to the Midwest that some areas require over 15" of rain (dark purple colors) to end the drought. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

Unanswered questions about Hurricane Isaac

1. Did the passage of Hurricane Isaac stir up oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill? Isaac was the first hurricane to pass over the site of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill. We know that large hurricanes are capable of creating currents in deep water at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico; Hurricane Ivan caused upwelling currents of 0.5 cm/s at a depth of about 500 meters. In an August 28 article in the Huffington Post, Nick Shay, professor of meteorology and physical oceanography at the University of Miami, said: "Winds will push water away from the center of a storm, which causes an upwelling as the ocean tries to adjust. It brings whatever is near the bottom up higher in the water column and currents can then push it towards the coast." Up to 1 million barrels of oil from the spill are estimated to still be present in the deep water sediment, on beaches, and in the marshes of Louisiana, and it is possible some of this oil will wash up on the Gulf Coast in coming months. The storm surge of Isaac also likely flushed out oil lodged in the coastal marshes of Louisiana, but it is unknown how much of a concern this might be.

2. What's the deal with these super-sized Category 1 and 2 hurricanes that have been hitting the U.S.? The past three landfalling hurricanes in the U.S.--Isaac (2012), Irene (2011), and Ike (2008)--have all been exceptionally large, among the top ten on record for horizontal extent of tropical storm-force winds. Each of these storms had an unusually low pressure characteristic of a storm one full Saffir-Simpson category stronger. Is this the new normal for U.S. hurricanes?

3. Did the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system cause worse flooding elsewhere? Whenever a new levee or flood control structure is created, you make someone else's flood problem worse, since the water has to go somewhere. Where did the water was stopped by the new $1.1 billion, 1.8 mile-long Lake Borgne flood barrier on the east side of New Orleans go? Did it flow south and contribute to the overtopping of the levees near Braithwaite? Or did it go north and contribute to the 36 hours of storm surge in excess of 5' observed along the Mississippi coast at Waveland? I posed this question to NHC's storm surge expert Jaime Rhome, and he said it was impossible to know without doing detailed storm surge modeling studies.

4. Can only hurricanes beginning with the letter "I" hit the U.S. now? Isaac (2012), Irene (2011), and Ike (2008) are the last three hurricanes to hit the U.S. It turns out that hurricanes that begin with the letter "I" and "C" have more names on the list of retired hurricanes than any other letter (nine each.) I'm thinking Isaac will get its name retired, letting storms beginning with "I" take over sole possession of first place on the retired storms list.

Hurricane Kirk in the Central Atlantic
Hurricane Kirk intensified into a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane this morning, becoming the 2nd strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Hurricane Gordon was the only stronger storm; Gordon hit sustained winds of 110 mph just before reaching the Azores Islands on August 18. Kirk has probably peaked in intensity, and is about to move over colder waters and gradually decay. Kirk is not a threat to any land areas.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie.

Tropical Storm Leslie a long-range threat to Bermuda, Canada, and the U.S. East Coast
Tropical Storm Leslie formed on Thursday in the Central Atlantic. Leslie's formation date of August 30 puts 2012 in 2nd place for earliest formation date of the season's 12th tropical storm. Only 1995 had an earlier formation date of the season's 12th storm. With records dating back to 1851, this year is only the second time 8 total storms have formed in August. The other year was 2004, when the first storm of the season formed on August 1 (Alex), and the 8th storm (Hermine) formed on August 29th. Satellite loops show that Leslie has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and respectable low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow. Conditions appear ripe to allow Leslie to intensify into a Category 2 hurricane by Sunday. Fortunately, Hurricane Kirk is weakening the ridge of high pressure to the north of Leslie, and Leslie is expected to turn to the northwest and miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, steering currents for Leslie are expected to collapse early next week, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The storm will then slowly meander over the open ocean for many days, potentially threatening Bermuda. Leslie will stay stuck until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast around September 8. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie to the north and then northeast by September 9. At that time, Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in New England, Canada, or the Mid-Atlantic states. Leslie could also miss land entirely; this all depends upon the timing and strength of the September 8 trough of low pressure. Regardless, Leslie is expected to bring an extended period of high waves to the U.S. coast. According to NOAA's Wavewatch III model, large swells from Leslie will reach Bermuda by Monday, and arrive along the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday. These waves will be capable of creating dangerous rip currents and beach erosion.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to Isaac
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, are in Mississippi, helping out with Isaac relief efforts. You can check out their progress or donate to Portlight's disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website.

I'm planning on taking Saturday off, but will have a new post for you on Sunday. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Isaac Louisiana (apphotos)
People play in the storm surge from Hurricane Isaac, on Lakeshore Drive along Lake Pontchartrain, as the storm nears land, in New Orleans, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana
Portlight volunteers at Biloxi shelter (Portlight)
Portlight volunteers at Biloxi shelter
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana (apphotos)
Research students from the the University of Alabama measure wind speeds as Hurricane Isaac makes landfall, Wednesday, Aug. 29, 2012, in New Orleans, La. Isaac was packing 80 mph winds, making it a Category 1 hurricane. It came ashore early Tuesday near the mouth of the Mississippi River, driving a wall of water nearly 11 feet high inland and soaking a neck of land that stretches into the Gulf. The storm stalled for several hours before resuming a slow trek inland, and forecasters said that was
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana
TS Isaac (Raine911)
Between the rain bands
TS Isaac

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1322. Gearsts
Can't belive Leslie is doing a Chris and it was looking weard and good last night.
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Newbie question? prolly self explanitory but a dumb question is only not asked so... Please explain the difference between dynamic/ simple and ensemble member models. Also what does the NHC use?
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1320. wxmod
Quoting pottery:

What a Dismal Outlook....

In the meantime, Trinidad is 95F with a heat index of 107.

This is not Florida, or Georgia or the MidWest.
This is a small island in the sea.
Warm weather and balmy breezes. That's what it's supposed to be !


Enjoy it while you can. If I didn't think there was time to do something to undismalify the 100 year outlook, I wouldn't bother to post the info.
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Quoting LostTomorrows:


It's a disturbing thought and it would actually make sense as to why there are hurricanes with such low pressures hitting the US that don't have the corresponding winds. I've heard about this program in which they "bomb" the circulation so that the winds thin out and don't mix down to the surface well enough.
It's still speculation, but it's not without evidence. What I'm thinking is that there will be a year in which too many majors will head for the Conus in a short period of time, I can see that being very overwhelming.

Again, it's an interesting theory, and one we will not know the answers to.


Interesting thoughts. Do you mean a year where, say, two cat 4, a cat 3 and a strong cat 2 all head for and make landfall in the US and none end up making it to US shores any stronger than a cat 2 (wind-wise at least)? This then removing any doubt that the government is engaging in some sort of profound weather modification?
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Quoting Kowaliga:


Here ya go.


Thanks buddy
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Quoting ABH4Life:
Could someone please post a link to the models so that I can save it? TIA


Here ya go.
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1316. wxmod
The North Pole is centered on this MODIS satellite photo taken today. The ice cap is the smallest on record and is still shrinking.

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Could someone please post a link to the models so that I can save it? TIA
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Don't know if we'll get a shot of the COC from here but it'll be close.......

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Quoting Aquaimage13:


With the tiniest bit of research one can see that YES, someone is playing with our weather.

Look Here

To think that the most powerful military and government in history is NOT playing with storms is the ludicrous thought. Sure, most on here will laugh and never do any research into it, but if you do, it will NOT take long to find out what H.A.A.R.P. and Geoengineering are really doing. This is the same government that did Fast and Furious program, MK Ultra, Operation Gladio, etc etc etc.

Am I saying they have it down pat? Probly not, BUT, I'll bet my arse they are trying. Of course they are, he who controls the weather controls the world of warfare.

Page 14 Here

Hmmm?


It's a disturbing thought and it would actually make sense as to why there are hurricanes with such low pressures hitting the US that don't have the corresponding winds. I've heard about this program in which they "bomb" the circulation so that the winds thin out and don't mix down to the surface well enough.
It's still speculation, but it's not without evidence. What I'm thinking is that there will be a year in which too many majors will head for the Conus in a short period of time, I can see that being very overwhelming.

Again, it's an interesting theory, and one we will not know the answers to.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 641
Taz accepted my apology so I feel better now.. back to the tropics!
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1311. pottery
Quoting MNhockeymama:
Can any of you please post a link to another site where a newbie can actually see what the storms are doing? I like the Wundermap, but I seriously miss StormPulse (now a subscription site)as another resource.
TIA

Well, that would result in troubles I think.

"No spamming allowed"
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25633
1310. pottery
Quoting wxmod:


Catagory 5 may seem like a pleasant day in a hundred years. There is no stopping the changes. We could be reinventing Venus.

What a Dismal Outlook....

In the meantime, Trinidad is 95F with a heat index of 107.

This is not Florida, or Georgia or the MidWest.
This is a small island in the sea.
Warm weather and balmy breezes. That's what it's supposed to be !
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25633
Can any of you please post a link to another site where a newbie can actually see what the storms are doing? I like the Wundermap, but I seriously miss StormPulse (now a subscription site)as another resource.
TIA
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Taz, You have mail
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1307. wxmod
Quoting unknowncomic:
This will probably matter in the future to tropical enthusiasts. No ice and hotter seas may mean cat5 every year.


Catagory 5 may seem like a pleasant day in a hundred years. There is no stopping the changes. We could be reinventing Venus.
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1306. pottery
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
yep...


Wow, again!

heheheheh
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25633
yep...
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Quoting maeko:


All right, I'll come clean...I had this thought myself a few times. Wasn't going to admit it but since you mentioned it...

It's probably just silly. There was a recent article about it published on Science Daily.

Link


Thank you for the response and the article addressing this. I am not a conspiracy theorist, however, after the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons taking thousands of US lives and incurring hundreds of BILLIONS of $ in damage, maybe the US government decided to intervene. The technology is supposedly there, after-all.

As for the modification approach mentioned in the article, I would estimate that another, more direct approach would be required to significantly reduce hurricane strength. The main problem with these underachievers the last 6 years has certainly not been insufficiently warm SSTs.

I believe cloud seedling is supposed to cause heavy convection to basically "rain-out" and weaken. This could be taking place, as the canes which have been US-bound recently have exhibited some odd characteristics and inconsistencies. This is, of course, just speculation, but maybe 2004 and 2005 were the "last straw".

Finally, I personally feel that any type of weather modification is irresponsible and could lead to dangerous unintended consequences. Knowledge and technology should be used to ensure areas most at risk are not inhabited and/or sufficiently fortified and that everyone can get out of harms way when a cyclone does approach.
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1303. pottery
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Ahem...

You find so, too ?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25633
Quoting pottery:
Wow.
It's getting bigger every minute.


Ahem...
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1301. K8eCane
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Then they're failing in an epic manner to prevent that, as Isaac's low pressure and size caused massive storm surge. Imagine a fully developed Category 4 in a similar situation.


well maybe the goverment wants a good reason to go in and clear out the central gulf coast. "you cant live here. too dangerous. we will relocate you". maybe just maybe? but then again, i have always had a good imagination.
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1300. pottery
Wow.
It's getting bigger every minute.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25633
Quoting wxmod:


I'll tell you why it's epic and why you should be paying attention, since you obviously don't think it's worthy of your time: first, the arctic ocean should be covered with ICE. Second, the fuel quality the ships are using is extremely low and is a contributor to the ice melt. All ships are using extremely low quality fuel and when things are shipped from one continent to another which could easily be made close to home, it is melting arctic ice. In a few years you will get my point, but too bad you think it is a joke right now. Issac is not even news compared to the inconvenience that will be coming your way from arctic ice melting.
This will probably matter in the future to tropical enthusiasts. No ice and hotter seas may mean cat5 every year.
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Not a drop expected here in the N Leewards! Crazy!
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1297. wxmod
This is a photo of the north pole today. The puddles in the foreground are frozen, so it seems likely that the photo shows a large swath of open ocean in the top left.

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Talk about a jump.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 1 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ILEANA...LOCATED ABOUT 555 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
I have just read Dr. Masters' most recent blog entry and I am wondering if any theories have been ventured as to the very large, low end (and with unusually low barometric pressure, relative to wind speed) hurricanes have been hitting the US recently? Is it most likely a coincidence or part of a natural qualitative variance (cycle) in storm activity? Climate change? Or might the US be engaging in some sort of cloud-seeding operation since, say, Hurricane Wilma in '05? Maybe cloud seeding could somehow result in larger canes with actual pressures closer to what the wind speed should have been naturally?

I also wanted to share my observation from this past Wednesday (8/29). I came to my car (I am north of Orlando) around 3:00 pm and noticed sand particles falling from the sky (there was a fine layer on the car too) as well as a very light drizzle. I thought it was either an isolated SAL-related event or somehow related to Hurricane Isaac. Either way, it is the first time I have ever observed sand falling from the sky.


Then they're failing in an epic manner to prevent that, as Isaac's low pressure and size caused massive storm surge. Imagine a fully developed Category 4 in a similar situation.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24965
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
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they could finally locate a center...or something like that
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
I have just read Dr. Masters' most recent blog entry and I am wondering if any theories have been ventured as to the very large, low end (and with unusually low barometric pressure, relative to wind speed) hurricanes have been hitting the US recently? Is it most likely a coincidence or part of a natural qualitative variance (cycle) in storm activity? Climate change? Or might the US be engaging in some sort of cloud-seeding operation since, say, Hurricane Wilma in '05? Maybe cloud seeding could somehow result in larger canes with actual pressures closer to what the wind speed should have been naturally?

I also wanted to share my observation from this past Wednesday (8/29). I came to my car (I am north of Orlando) around 3:00 pm and noticed sand particles falling from the sky (there was a fine layer on the car too) as well as a very light drizzle. I thought it was either an isolated SAL-related event or somehow related to Hurricane Isaac. Either way, it is the first time I have ever observed sand falling from the sky.


With the tiniest bit of research one can see that YES, someone is playing with our weather.

Look Here

To think that the most powerful military and government in history is NOT playing with storms is the ludicrous thought. Sure, most on here will laugh and never do any research into it, but if you do, it will NOT take long to find out what H.A.A.R.P. and Geoengineering are really doing. This is the same government that did Fast and Furious program, MK Ultra, Operation Gladio, etc etc etc.

Am I saying they have it down pat? Probly not, BUT, I'll bet my arse they are trying. Of course they are, he who controls the weather controls the world of warfare.

Page 14 Here

Hmmm?
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It would be crazy if we picked up where we left off with a Major Hurricane hitting somewhere along the west coast of FL. like Wilma did and took until Oct. to do so. Not downplaying some of the recent storms we have had, just technically speaking Cat. 3, 115 mph. or higher.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1291. wxmod
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hmm wow epic

and on other good news TD Isaac is not TD anymore

..TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC HAS LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE MOVING ACROSS MISSOURI...FLASH FLOOD THREAT DIMINISHING...


I'll tell you why it's epic and why you should be paying attention, since you obviously don't think it's worthy of your time: first, the arctic ocean should be covered with ICE. Second, the fuel quality the ships are using is extremely low and is a contributor to the ice melt. All ships are using extremely low quality fuel and when things are shipped from one continent to another which could easily be made close to home, it is melting arctic ice. In a few years you will get my point, but too bad you think it is a joke right now. Issac is not even news compared to the inconvenience that will be coming your way from arctic ice melting.
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Quoting unknowncomic:
Still waiting for a thirsty cane.

If this keeps up, October could be a very bad month in the CAR...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It should be pulled northward regardless of its strengh. Here is the steering for a storm with a pressure above 1000 millibars.

IMO only way we'd see a seriously Wward movement would be if the high built in much faster than expected, and with Kirk as a 'cane going that way for a while, I don't think it'll happen fast enough.

But this is definitely a wait and see. I notice some pple were posting Andrew information. While that's not as likely a scenario as, say, a storm pulling north and hitting NC, it can't be ruled out. For now, though, I think the "between Bermuda and NC" forecast is most likely to pan out...

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Outer band of Leslie approaching the Antilles..batten down!Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
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its funny how some of you this now noted that we had 98E i think we had it for a few hrs now i new it was there lol
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1287. maeko
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
...Or might the US be engaging in some sort of cloud-seeding operation since, say, Hurricane Wilma in '05? ...


All right, I'll come clean...I had this thought myself a few times. Wasn't going to admit it but since you mentioned it...

It's probably just silly. There was a recent article about it published on Science Daily.

Link
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Quoting BahaHurican:
September is the basinwide peak... the highest chance for almost every coastline in the ATL is in Sept. [I'd say maybe only the Azores and the Cape Verdes are more likely to see a TS strike in another month... but it would be interesting to see some statistics about that...



Grand Cayman and Cayman Brac peak in October:

http://stormcarib.com/climatology/MWCB_weekly.htm

http://stormcarib.com/climatology/MWCR_weekly.htm
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sounds like Isaac had SAL imprinted within his circulation.


I bet you that is what happened. This seems much more likely than the hurricane drawing up massive quantities of sand from Gulf Coast beaches to later fall in adjacent areas (as I had thought was another possibility).
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here is the steering level that ppeople should be looking at for Leslie

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z GFS doesn't have the parade of CV systems that had at 06z. Only one tries to develop.
That is typical GFS for you a parade of storms one run and nadda on the next, it is too far out to really tell if conditions will be conducive for development or not. I'm inclined to side with climatology on this one and say we get development past the peak that will last until the 1st week of Oct. after that a lull and then action picks up back during the secondary peak around Oct. 20. And if by Nov. El Nino hasn't shown up ,it wouldn't surprise me to see a storm in Nov.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1281. LargoFl
PALM BEACH FL-
828 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT SATURDAY

* AT 824 PM EDT...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS HAVE IMPROVED RECENTLY
...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH
COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SOUTHERN BOULEVARD TO NORTH LAKE
BOULEVARD. AS A RESULT...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THESE AREAS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. THE WATER MAY OBSCURE DEEP CANALS OR PONDS.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

&&
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1280. Limon
Jeff:  Could you help me in publishing a New International Geoengineerin Cloud Atlas?The Altocumulus-Altostratus-Cirrocumulus Genera of the current (and severely outdated) International Cloud Atlas of the WMO never appear as "clean clouds" anymore here in Costa Rica's Eastern Caribbean Port of  Limon. I sent Weather Balloons up in 1977-1978 at Battery MacKenzie, Fort Sherman, Panama(ex-Canal Zone US Army Met Team), and from 1989-1999 every 2 hours from Yuma Proving Ground, AZ (US Army Met Team).The 20% humidity cutoff line in Panama was normally beteen 500-400 mb in Rainy Season (Mid April-Mid November) and 700mb-600mb in Dry Season (Mid November-Mid April).Now, it seems that the humidity is ALWAYS 20% between 700mb-500mb, even in the Rainy Season, causing unprecedented Drought Conditions from Mid April-the end of September in the Caribbean Coastlines of Southern Nicaragua and Central and Northern Caribbean Costa Rica.The "New Age Dirty Cloud Genera" of Tropical Altocumulus-Altostratus-Cirrocumulus and even Cirrus Spissatus (Pre-CB conditions) are preventing normal development of Towering Cumulus which later would normally "explode" into Cumulonimbus topping off at 40000-55000 feet (depending on Upper Air moisture content).Could Aluminum Oxide (mid-cloud) or Barium (upper cloud) particulates, (always showing up as "dirty, dark gray mid or high clouds in visible satellite  photos), be responsible for rounding the Bermuda High from the East-Northeast (prevailing wind direction at 700-500mb) and "killing" trade-wind cumulus at their tower tops, thereby "drying out" this extemely important level and creating a " Permanent Dirty Inversion Warm Layer or Cap"?
As a result of this, it is reported that many persons here in Costa Rica are reporting nearly 60 times the EPA (USA) maximum permitted level of mercury in their scalp laboratory readings in the Mountains of the Central Valley of San Jose.
Thanks and Best of the Best Always from Costa Rica!
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1279. LargoFl
this county in southeast florida really got whacked by issac and its rains.so much flooding from a storm that was possibly 300 miles away when those bands came rolling in.
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Quoting Articuno:


O.o

That's weird.. never knew sand fell from the sky. :O


It was very weird! I knew that SAL events transported sand/dust from the Saharan Desert across the Atlantic to the Caribbean and US, causing a hazy sky and a fine layer on outdoor objects. On Wednesday, however, I could actually see individual sand particles falling.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It should be pulled northward regardless of its strengh. Here is the steering for a storm with a pressure above 1000 millibars.



TA13~ Thanks, that's what I was kinda thinking but didn't know if I was right. It looks like Bermuda is the one that's gonna have to watch this one. At least the U.S. don't have to. Give everyone a much needed break.

Sheri
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Don't tell me Leslie is pulling a Emily(2011) part two!.
Chris 2006 part two would be more appropriate.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hmm wow epic

and on other good news TD Isaac is not TD anymore

..TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC HAS LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE MOVING ACROSS MISSOURI...FLASH FLOOD THREAT DIMINISHING...



your late that been posted a few times all ready
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

wow well sept oct and nov is our peak of hurricane season yep every country island and state had ist own peak in the season ours is in sept oct nov
September is the basinwide peak... the highest chance for almost every coastline in the ATL is in Sept. [I'd say maybe only the Azores and the Cape Verdes are more likely to see a TS strike in another month... but it would be interesting to see some statistics about that...
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1273. LargoFl
....................GFS has her sitting off the coast from 140..this is 240 hours, and 260 hours has her off the coast but a lil north..thats a long time not to move very much isnt it?
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Quoting wxmod:
2 ships moving across the Arctic Ocean leaving clouds a thousand miles long. MODIS satellite photo.


hmm wow epic

and on other good news TD Isaac is not TD anymore

..TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC HAS LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE MOVING ACROSS MISSOURI...FLASH FLOOD THREAT DIMINISHING...
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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