Unanswered questions concerning Hurricane Isaac

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:35 PM GMT on August 31, 2012

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The top winds of Tropical Depression Isaac have fallen to 25 mph, but the storm continues to be a potent rain-maker as it heads north-northwest at 11 mph into Missouri. Isaac has spawned up to 20 suspected tornadoes, brought storm surges as high as 13.6' to the coast (in Lake Borgne, LA), and dumped 20" of rain at one station in New Orleans. The 13.27" of rain that fell at Hattiesburg, MS broke the record for wettest August in the city's history (previous record: 13.03" in 1987.) Major flooding is occurring on seven rivers in Louisiana and Mississippi. Isaac is being blamed for at least four deaths in the U.S., 24 in Haiti, and five in the Dominican Republic.

A few notable rainfall totals from Isaac, through 11 am EDT on Friday:

20.08" New Orleans, LA
15.02" Marion, MS
13.99" Pascagoula, MS
13.27" Hattiesburg, MS
10.85" Gulfport, MS
10.39" Slidell, LA
10.17" Biloxi, MS
9.85" Mobile, AL
7.38" Pine Bluff, AR
5.95" Baton Rouge, LA

A major reason for Isaac's heavy rainfall totals has been its very slow motion. This slow speed was due to the fact Isaac has been bumping into a ridge of high pressure that is unusually strong, due to the intense drought over the center of the U.S.; strong drought-amplified high pressure areas are very resistant to allowing any low pressure areas to intrude into their domain. The high pressure area was strong enough this week to allow several all-time records for heat this late in the year to be set:

112° on August 29 at Winner, SD
108° on August 29 at Valentine, NE
107° on August 29 at Corpus Christi, TX
97° on August 29 at Denver, CO (2nd highest so late in the year)


Figure 1. Nighttime view of Hurricane Isaac taken at 1:57 am CDT August 29, 2012, by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi-NPP satellite. The VIIRS day-night band detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared, and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. In this case, the clouds of Isaac were lit by moonlight. Image credit: NASA.

Isaac's beneficial rains falling in drought-stricken regions
Hurricanes get a lot of attention because of the billions in damage they cost, and the lives they disrupt. AIR Worldwide estimated today that insured damage from Isaac would cost up to $2 billion. This does not include damage to infrastructure or uninsured damage, so the final price tag of Isaac's rampage will be more like $3 - $5 billion. However, Isaac is now dumping beneficial rains over Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky--regions stricken by the worst drought since the 1950s or 1930s, depending upon the exact location. These regions need 9 - 18 inches of rain to pull them out of drought. Isaac's 3 - 6 inches of rain will not end the drought, but will put a pretty good dent in it. I expect that 3 - 6 inches of rain for a wide swath of prime agricultural land in extreme drought is probably worth at least $5 billion, when you consider that a recent estimate by a Purdue economist put the cost of the great drought of 2012 at more than $77 billion. Only Hurricane Katrina ($146 billion) and the drought of 1988 ($78 billion) have been more expensive disasters, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Unfortunately, Isaac's arrival is poorly timed, as the storm is arriving during harvest season. The strong winds associated with the storm will flatten many crops, making it more difficult to harvest them, and Isaac's winds may cost farmers several hundred million dollars due to unharvestable crops. Still, the rains from Isaac will be highly beneficial for the success of the upcoming winter wheat season, and for next year's growing season.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the five-day period ending on Tuesday evening shows that Isaac is expected to bring a large region of 3 - 6 inches of rain (red, orange, and brown colors) to Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 3. The great drought of 2012 has brought so little rain to the Midwest that some areas require over 15" of rain (dark purple colors) to end the drought. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

Unanswered questions about Hurricane Isaac

1. Did the passage of Hurricane Isaac stir up oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill? Isaac was the first hurricane to pass over the site of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill. We know that large hurricanes are capable of creating currents in deep water at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico; Hurricane Ivan caused upwelling currents of 0.5 cm/s at a depth of about 500 meters. In an August 28 article in the Huffington Post, Nick Shay, professor of meteorology and physical oceanography at the University of Miami, said: "Winds will push water away from the center of a storm, which causes an upwelling as the ocean tries to adjust. It brings whatever is near the bottom up higher in the water column and currents can then push it towards the coast." Up to 1 million barrels of oil from the spill are estimated to still be present in the deep water sediment, on beaches, and in the marshes of Louisiana, and it is possible some of this oil will wash up on the Gulf Coast in coming months. The storm surge of Isaac also likely flushed out oil lodged in the coastal marshes of Louisiana, but it is unknown how much of a concern this might be.

2. What's the deal with these super-sized Category 1 and 2 hurricanes that have been hitting the U.S.? The past three landfalling hurricanes in the U.S.--Isaac (2012), Irene (2011), and Ike (2008)--have all been exceptionally large, among the top ten on record for horizontal extent of tropical storm-force winds. Each of these storms had an unusually low pressure characteristic of a storm one full Saffir-Simpson category stronger. Is this the new normal for U.S. hurricanes?

3. Did the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system cause worse flooding elsewhere? Whenever a new levee or flood control structure is created, you make someone else's flood problem worse, since the water has to go somewhere. Where did the water was stopped by the new $1.1 billion, 1.8 mile-long Lake Borgne flood barrier on the east side of New Orleans go? Did it flow south and contribute to the overtopping of the levees near Braithwaite? Or did it go north and contribute to the 36 hours of storm surge in excess of 5' observed along the Mississippi coast at Waveland? I posed this question to NHC's storm surge expert Jaime Rhome, and he said it was impossible to know without doing detailed storm surge modeling studies.

4. Can only hurricanes beginning with the letter "I" hit the U.S. now? Isaac (2012), Irene (2011), and Ike (2008) are the last three hurricanes to hit the U.S. It turns out that hurricanes that begin with the letter "I" and "C" have more names on the list of retired hurricanes than any other letter (nine each.) I'm thinking Isaac will get its name retired, letting storms beginning with "I" take over sole possession of first place on the retired storms list.

Hurricane Kirk in the Central Atlantic
Hurricane Kirk intensified into a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane this morning, becoming the 2nd strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Hurricane Gordon was the only stronger storm; Gordon hit sustained winds of 110 mph just before reaching the Azores Islands on August 18. Kirk has probably peaked in intensity, and is about to move over colder waters and gradually decay. Kirk is not a threat to any land areas.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie.

Tropical Storm Leslie a long-range threat to Bermuda, Canada, and the U.S. East Coast
Tropical Storm Leslie formed on Thursday in the Central Atlantic. Leslie's formation date of August 30 puts 2012 in 2nd place for earliest formation date of the season's 12th tropical storm. Only 1995 had an earlier formation date of the season's 12th storm. With records dating back to 1851, this year is only the second time 8 total storms have formed in August. The other year was 2004, when the first storm of the season formed on August 1 (Alex), and the 8th storm (Hermine) formed on August 29th. Satellite loops show that Leslie has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and respectable low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow. Conditions appear ripe to allow Leslie to intensify into a Category 2 hurricane by Sunday. Fortunately, Hurricane Kirk is weakening the ridge of high pressure to the north of Leslie, and Leslie is expected to turn to the northwest and miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, steering currents for Leslie are expected to collapse early next week, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The storm will then slowly meander over the open ocean for many days, potentially threatening Bermuda. Leslie will stay stuck until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast around September 8. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie to the north and then northeast by September 9. At that time, Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in New England, Canada, or the Mid-Atlantic states. Leslie could also miss land entirely; this all depends upon the timing and strength of the September 8 trough of low pressure. Regardless, Leslie is expected to bring an extended period of high waves to the U.S. coast. According to NOAA's Wavewatch III model, large swells from Leslie will reach Bermuda by Monday, and arrive along the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday. These waves will be capable of creating dangerous rip currents and beach erosion.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to Isaac
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, are in Mississippi, helping out with Isaac relief efforts. You can check out their progress or donate to Portlight's disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website.

I'm planning on taking Saturday off, but will have a new post for you on Sunday. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Isaac Louisiana (apphotos)
People play in the storm surge from Hurricane Isaac, on Lakeshore Drive along Lake Pontchartrain, as the storm nears land, in New Orleans, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana
Portlight volunteers at Biloxi shelter (Portlight)
Portlight volunteers at Biloxi shelter
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana (apphotos)
Research students from the the University of Alabama measure wind speeds as Hurricane Isaac makes landfall, Wednesday, Aug. 29, 2012, in New Orleans, La. Isaac was packing 80 mph winds, making it a Category 1 hurricane. It came ashore early Tuesday near the mouth of the Mississippi River, driving a wall of water nearly 11 feet high inland and soaking a neck of land that stretches into the Gulf. The storm stalled for several hours before resuming a slow trek inland, and forecasters said that was
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana
TS Isaac (Raine911)
Between the rain bands
TS Isaac

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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


I'm on 518 near the Friendswood/League City line.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


I'm on 518 near the Friendswood/League City line.


Lived in LC for years.. Clear creek village. Allison brought clear creek to about 5 feet of my front door. We understand the issues of a slow moving TS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Pirate999:


Hey neighbor. I'm off of 2351.. East side if 45.


I'm on 518 near the Friendswood/League City line. My rain gauge says 3.36". This summer is almost the complete opposite of last summer's blistering heat and bone dry ground.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Leslie is setting up to be a fun one to track if she survives the shear.

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPOSED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE DROPPING...SO THE INITIAL WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 55 KT.
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND SOMEWHAT INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO FLOW AROUND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH. CURIOUSLY...THE MODELS DO
NOT WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MUCH MORE...PERHAPS BECAUSE LESLIE MOVES
THROUGH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WARM WATERS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING A STEADY STATE
CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF LESLIE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT DURING THAT TIME. THE NEW
FORECAST STILL LEAVES OPEN THE CHANCE THAT CYCLONE WILL RECOVER IN
A FEW DAYS TIME DUE TO A POSSIBLE LESSENING OF THE SHEAR.

VISIBLE FIXES GIVE A MOTION OF ABOUT 295/16. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO
THE SYNOPTIC REASONING AS LESLIE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY
LATE TOMORROW AS IT MOVES AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GLOBAL MOTION ARE THEN CONSISTENT ABOUT THE
CYCLONE TURNING BY EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE TRACK A BIT FASTER AND LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS. THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT INVOLVES THE INTERACTION OF MANY
FEATURES...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC...A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE
OF FLORIDA...AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...WHICH ENDS UP BEING A BIT SLOWER AND WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
"The long range forecast is uncertain." Some interesting verbage by the NHC in the bottom paragraph.
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i wounder if LESLIE low level center is starting too be a little open
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5095 Comments: 116089
Tropical Storm Leslie:



Low level center remains exposed.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Friendswood, actually. Howdy, neighbor!


Hey neighbor. I'm off of 2351.. East side if 45.
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Quoting Pirate999:


Clear lake. I have a boat in Kemah too.

You? You mentioned volunteer FD so maybe Seabrook?


Friendswood, actually. Howdy, neighbor!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Leslie is setting up to be a fun one to track if she survives the shear.

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPOSED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE DROPPING...SO THE INITIAL WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 55 KT.
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND SOMEWHAT INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO FLOW AROUND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH. CURIOUSLY...THE MODELS DO
NOT WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MUCH MORE...PERHAPS BECAUSE LESLIE MOVES
THROUGH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WARM WATERS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING A STEADY STATE
CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF LESLIE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT DURING THAT TIME. THE NEW
FORECAST STILL LEAVES OPEN THE CHANCE THAT CYCLONE WILL RECOVER IN
A FEW DAYS TIME DUE TO A POSSIBLE LESSENING OF THE SHEAR.

VISIBLE FIXES GIVE A MOTION OF ABOUT 295/16. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO
THE SYNOPTIC REASONING AS LESLIE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY
LATE TOMORROW AS IT MOVES AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GLOBAL MOTION ARE THEN CONSISTENT ABOUT THE
CYCLONE TURNING BY EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE TRACK A BIT FASTER AND LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS. THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT INVOLVES THE INTERACTION OF MANY
FEATURES...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC...A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE
OF FLORIDA...AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...WHICH ENDS UP BEING A BIT SLOWER AND WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Sorry CaribBoy... Bad finger


I'm in St Maarten lol
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I think once Leslie gets into a better environment and becomes vertically staked then she will put on a show.


Believe me, Leslie is going to improve his structure but not now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Getting rain off and on here in SE TX (bpt). Isaac just keeps on giving....ugh. All that Malathion this week down the drain. Guess I need to go buy more OFF! The Valley (RGV) is even getting some RA from this extreme "outer band", according to my mom.

I hope everyone is safe and recovering well in LA and other parts that were flooded. And I think we're ALL lucky Isaac didn't have 24 more hours to spool up out there, considering he's been over land for over 48 hours and STILL looks like a tropical system. We had 4 straight days of 20+ mph winds. Man. out.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Leslie looks to be making a come back!


Sure looks that way to me.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPOSED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE DROPPING...SO THE INITIAL WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 55 KT.
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND SOMEWHAT INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO FLOW AROUND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH. CURIOUSLY...THE MODELS DO
NOT WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MUCH MORE...PERHAPS BECAUSE LESLIE MOVES
THROUGH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WARM WATERS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING A STEADY STATE
CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF LESLIE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT DURING THAT TIME. THE NEW
FORECAST STILL LEAVES OPEN THE CHANCE THAT CYCLONE WILL RECOVER IN
A FEW DAYS TIME DUE TO A POSSIBLE LESSENING OF THE SHEAR.

VISIBLE FIXES GIVE A MOTION OF ABOUT 295/16. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO
THE SYNOPTIC REASONING AS LESLIE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY
LATE TOMORROW AS IT MOVES AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GLOBAL MOTION ARE THEN CONSISTENT ABOUT THE
CYCLONE TURNING BY EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE TRACK A BIT FASTER AND LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS. THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT INVOLVES THE INTERACTION OF MANY
FEATURES...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC...A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE
OF FLORIDA...AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...WHICH ENDS UP BEING A BIT SLOWER AND WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 19.2N 57.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 20.3N 59.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 21.9N 61.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 23.6N 62.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 24.9N 62.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 26.3N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 27.5N 62.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 29.0N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


It really was. If you don't mind me asking, where do you live?


Clear lake. I have a boat in Kemah too.

You? You mentioned volunteer FD so maybe Seabrook?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

...LESLIE BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 57.3W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012

...ILEANA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 119.7W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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Quoting Pirate999:


That was a heck of a cell. My official rain gauge, the pool, overflowed in about an hour. Street flooded. Looks like its moving off.


It really was. If you don't mind me asking, where do you live?
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Leslie looks to be making a come back!
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TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
2100 UTC SAT SEP 01 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 44.3W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 180SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 44.3W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 45.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 42.4N 41.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 90SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 47.6N 34.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 150SE 120SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 44.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34178
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Storms finally moving out of the area. Multiple fires caused by lightning have our volunteer fire department scrambling...


That was a heck of a cell. My official rain gauge, the pool, overflowed in about an hour. Street flooded. Looks like its moving off.
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Quoting wxmod:
We are getting close to another milestone! The arctic sea ice area is one half of what it averaged between 1979 and 2008 on this day.



I think our volume minimum is going to have a net loss of about 900km^3 to 1000km^3, hard to say.




This is close to the smoothed exponential trend, so not a big shocker in the sense that we've known this for a few years since it became apparent that the trend was truly exponential.



Source: Wipneuss on Neven's Blog
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
trHU..........If I may ask......Where do you live?? Not Louisiana or south Florida I am assuming
Sorry CaribBoy... Bad finger
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Quoting E46Pilot:


I'm in south FL too, but I love to feel the hot sun in the summer and sweat, people think I'm weird for that. I am a true Floridian though.
south Florida here also... It gets very hot but I used to live in South Carolina.....Now that is HOT
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827  
WGUS54 KLIX 012004  
FFWLIX  
LAC103-020200-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.FF.W.0080.120901T2004Z-120902T0200Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
304 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 900 PM CDT  
 
* AT 251 PM CDT...ST TAMMANY PARISH OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT  
REPORTED THAT THE PEARL RIVER DIVERSION CANAL LOCK AND DAM NUMBER  
TWO IS ABOUT TO FAIL. HEAVY SCOUR IS TAKING PLACE ALONG SIDE THE  
RELIEF SILL. THE CURRENT STAGE IS 18.5 FEET AT BUSH.  
 
THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ALL RESIDENTS AND INTEREST  
DOWNSTREAM OF PEARL RIVER LOCK AND DAM #2 NEAR BUSH DOWNSTREAM TO  
HIGHWAY 36 AT HICKORY.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FLOOD WATERS WILL MOVE DOWN THE PEARL RIVER DIVERSION CANAL FROM THE  
LOCK NUMBER 2 TO HICKORY.  
 
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.  
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.  
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE  
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS  
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY  
AUTOMOBILE.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3064 8982 3062 8983 3059 8981 3058 8982  
3051 8976 3042 8974 3042 8978 3053 8982  
3063 8988 3065 8983  
 
 
 
24/RR  
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Quoting CaribBoy:
It thing has to relocate its center of circulation in the convection!!
trHU..........If I may ask......Where do you live?? Not Louisiana or south Florida I am assuming
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Streets flooding, power blinking.


Storms finally moving out of the area. Multiple fires caused by lightning have our volunteer fire department scrambling...
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1444. wxmod
We are getting close to another milestone! The arctic sea ice area is one half of what it averaged between 1979 and 2008 on this day.

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1443. Bielle
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Several days later and the major problems continue.

Rt @wwltv BREAKING: Mandatory evacs in St Tammany. Failure of Lock 2 is imminent! #isaac


Map link?
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Ileana, 98E, and 99E in the eastern Pacific.



Leslie and Kirk in the Atlantic.

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Quoting wxchaser97:

I think once Leslie gets into a better environment and becomes vertically staked then she will put on a show.

She's gonna get a taste of northerly shear between 24 and 96 hrs out...so I don't know...

12Z GFS also showed her becoming parked SE of Bermuda for a very long time (well beyond 120 hrs)...it even has her not getting swept up by the next mid-latitude frontal system (which contains ex-Isaac or his stuff)...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep992012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209011939
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 99, 2012, DB, O, 2012090118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP992012
EP, 99, 2012090100, , BEST, 0, 143N, 948W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2012090106, , BEST, 0, 152N, 972W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2012090112, , BEST, 0, 158N, 996W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2012090118, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1019W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Its very near 98E.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4488
Several days later and the major problems continue.

Rt @wwltv BREAKING: Mandatory evacs in St Tammany. Failure of Lock 2 is imminent! #isaac
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34178
1438. wxmod
400 miles from the north pole. Closest land mass to the pole. Northern Greenland. MODIS

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's the old 99L, Taz.




thats 99E


oops


worng 99s


here for 99E


EP, 99, 2012090118, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1019W, 30, 1007, DB,
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5095 Comments: 116089
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Quoting Tazmanian:
AL, 99, 2012080118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 482W, 30, 1008, LO,

That's the old 99L, Taz.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34178
Re: "I" storms, 2003's Isabel was a giant Cat. 2 storm that hit the East Coast.
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 PM PDT SAT SEP 1 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ILEANA...LOCATED ABOUT 555 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO ADD DISCUSSION OF SMALL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.

UPDATED...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A SMALL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO
MEXICO. WHILE IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM LACKS A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION...IT IS PRODUCING WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 20 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5095 Comments: 116089
AL, 99, 2012080118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 482W, 30, 1008, LO,
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5095 Comments: 116089
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep992012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209011939
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 99, 2012, DB, O, 2012090118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP992012
EP, 99, 2012090100, , BEST, 0, 143N, 948W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2012090106, , BEST, 0, 152N, 972W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2012090112, , BEST, 0, 158N, 996W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2012090118, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1019W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34178
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Alberto was impressive because it was in May.
Beryl was very impressive because it was nearly a hurricane in May at landfall.
Chris featured a rather impressive eye for a while.
Debby wasn't very spectacular.
Ernesto started to become impressive as it made landfall, there's a lot of evidence to support a higher intensity than what we ended up with.
Florence wasn't impressive.
Gordon was very impressive for its latitude.
Helene was very unimpressive.
Isaac at landfall was perhaps the most impressive Category 1 hurricane I had ever seen, the outflow as incredible.
Joyce was unimpressive.
Kirk was impressive for the same reasons that Gordon was.
Leslie isn't too impressive yet.

All and all, this season has been quite a show for what was supposed to be an El Nino year. All my expectations have been blown away so far.

I think once Leslie gets into a better environment and becomes vertically staked then she will put on a show.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
99E JUST FORMED!

LOL...I forgot there was an E-pac....after all this stuff in the Atlantic....

And yeah...that's pretty cool that we've just had 99E pop-up like that. Haven't been watchin' that area...so I don't know why...
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1428. wxmod
Speaking of beautiful days! Bring your fishing pole. North Pole.

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Alberto was impressive because it was in May.
Beryl was very impressive because it was nearly a hurricane in May at landfall.
Chris featured a rather impressive eye for a while.
Debby wasn't very spectacular.
Ernesto started to become impressive as it made landfall, there's a lot of evidence to support a higher intensity than what we ended up with.
Florence wasn't impressive.
Gordon was very impressive for its latitude.
Helene was very unimpressive.
Isaac at landfall was perhaps the most impressive Category 1 hurricane I had ever seen, the outflow as incredible.
Joyce was unimpressive.
Kirk was impressive for the same reasons that Gordon was.
Leslie isn't too impressive yet.

All and all, this season has been quite a show for what was supposed to be an El Nino year. All my expectations have been blown away so far.
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1426. Skyepony (Mod)
377 of the 596 productions platforms in the GOM have some sort of staff on them again after evacuating for Isaac.

94% of oil production and about 65% of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico remains shut in in the aftermath of the hurricane. more
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that looks like a cyclone...
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99E JUST FORMED!
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Quoting E46Pilot:


Maybe that's what he meant by crappy?
As far as tracking goes though Isaac was very entertaining.

Idk but Isaac was interesting to track.
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1422. Brock31
Quoting Skyepony:
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