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Unanswered questions concerning Hurricane Isaac

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:35 PM GMT on August 31, 2012

The top winds of Tropical Depression Isaac have fallen to 25 mph, but the storm continues to be a potent rain-maker as it heads north-northwest at 11 mph into Missouri. Isaac has spawned up to 20 suspected tornadoes, brought storm surges as high as 13.6' to the coast (in Lake Borgne, LA), and dumped 20" of rain at one station in New Orleans. The 13.27" of rain that fell at Hattiesburg, MS broke the record for wettest August in the city's history (previous record: 13.03" in 1987.) Major flooding is occurring on seven rivers in Louisiana and Mississippi. Isaac is being blamed for at least four deaths in the U.S., 24 in Haiti, and five in the Dominican Republic.

A few notable rainfall totals from Isaac, through 11 am EDT on Friday:

20.08" New Orleans, LA
15.02" Marion, MS
13.99" Pascagoula, MS
13.27" Hattiesburg, MS
10.85" Gulfport, MS
10.39" Slidell, LA
10.17" Biloxi, MS
9.85" Mobile, AL
7.38" Pine Bluff, AR
5.95" Baton Rouge, LA

A major reason for Isaac's heavy rainfall totals has been its very slow motion. This slow speed was due to the fact Isaac has been bumping into a ridge of high pressure that is unusually strong, due to the intense drought over the center of the U.S.; strong drought-amplified high pressure areas are very resistant to allowing any low pressure areas to intrude into their domain. The high pressure area was strong enough this week to allow several all-time records for heat this late in the year to be set:

112° on August 29 at Winner, SD
108° on August 29 at Valentine, NE
107° on August 29 at Corpus Christi, TX
97° on August 29 at Denver, CO (2nd highest so late in the year)


Figure 1. Nighttime view of Hurricane Isaac taken at 1:57 am CDT August 29, 2012, by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi-NPP satellite. The VIIRS day-night band detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared, and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. In this case, the clouds of Isaac were lit by moonlight. Image credit: NASA.

Isaac's beneficial rains falling in drought-stricken regions
Hurricanes get a lot of attention because of the billions in damage they cost, and the lives they disrupt. AIR Worldwide estimated today that insured damage from Isaac would cost up to $2 billion. This does not include damage to infrastructure or uninsured damage, so the final price tag of Isaac's rampage will be more like $3 - $5 billion. However, Isaac is now dumping beneficial rains over Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky--regions stricken by the worst drought since the 1950s or 1930s, depending upon the exact location. These regions need 9 - 18 inches of rain to pull them out of drought. Isaac's 3 - 6 inches of rain will not end the drought, but will put a pretty good dent in it. I expect that 3 - 6 inches of rain for a wide swath of prime agricultural land in extreme drought is probably worth at least $5 billion, when you consider that a recent estimate by a Purdue economist put the cost of the great drought of 2012 at more than $77 billion. Only Hurricane Katrina ($146 billion) and the drought of 1988 ($78 billion) have been more expensive disasters, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Unfortunately, Isaac's arrival is poorly timed, as the storm is arriving during harvest season. The strong winds associated with the storm will flatten many crops, making it more difficult to harvest them, and Isaac's winds may cost farmers several hundred million dollars due to unharvestable crops. Still, the rains from Isaac will be highly beneficial for the success of the upcoming winter wheat season, and for next year's growing season.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the five-day period ending on Tuesday evening shows that Isaac is expected to bring a large region of 3 - 6 inches of rain (red, orange, and brown colors) to Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 3. The great drought of 2012 has brought so little rain to the Midwest that some areas require over 15" of rain (dark purple colors) to end the drought. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

Unanswered questions about Hurricane Isaac

1. Did the passage of Hurricane Isaac stir up oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill? Isaac was the first hurricane to pass over the site of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill. We know that large hurricanes are capable of creating currents in deep water at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico; Hurricane Ivan caused upwelling currents of 0.5 cm/s at a depth of about 500 meters. In an August 28 article in the Huffington Post, Nick Shay, professor of meteorology and physical oceanography at the University of Miami, said: "Winds will push water away from the center of a storm, which causes an upwelling as the ocean tries to adjust. It brings whatever is near the bottom up higher in the water column and currents can then push it towards the coast." Up to 1 million barrels of oil from the spill are estimated to still be present in the deep water sediment, on beaches, and in the marshes of Louisiana, and it is possible some of this oil will wash up on the Gulf Coast in coming months. The storm surge of Isaac also likely flushed out oil lodged in the coastal marshes of Louisiana, but it is unknown how much of a concern this might be.

2. What's the deal with these super-sized Category 1 and 2 hurricanes that have been hitting the U.S.? The past three landfalling hurricanes in the U.S.--Isaac (2012), Irene (2011), and Ike (2008)--have all been exceptionally large, among the top ten on record for horizontal extent of tropical storm-force winds. Each of these storms had an unusually low pressure characteristic of a storm one full Saffir-Simpson category stronger. Is this the new normal for U.S. hurricanes?

3. Did the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system cause worse flooding elsewhere? Whenever a new levee or flood control structure is created, you make someone else's flood problem worse, since the water has to go somewhere. Where did the water was stopped by the new $1.1 billion, 1.8 mile-long Lake Borgne flood barrier on the east side of New Orleans go? Did it flow south and contribute to the overtopping of the levees near Braithwaite? Or did it go north and contribute to the 36 hours of storm surge in excess of 5' observed along the Mississippi coast at Waveland? I posed this question to NHC's storm surge expert Jaime Rhome, and he said it was impossible to know without doing detailed storm surge modeling studies.

4. Can only hurricanes beginning with the letter "I" hit the U.S. now? Isaac (2012), Irene (2011), and Ike (2008) are the last three hurricanes to hit the U.S. It turns out that hurricanes that begin with the letter "I" and "C" have more names on the list of retired hurricanes than any other letter (nine each.) I'm thinking Isaac will get its name retired, letting storms beginning with "I" take over sole possession of first place on the retired storms list.

Hurricane Kirk in the Central Atlantic
Hurricane Kirk intensified into a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane this morning, becoming the 2nd strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Hurricane Gordon was the only stronger storm; Gordon hit sustained winds of 110 mph just before reaching the Azores Islands on August 18. Kirk has probably peaked in intensity, and is about to move over colder waters and gradually decay. Kirk is not a threat to any land areas.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie.

Tropical Storm Leslie a long-range threat to Bermuda, Canada, and the U.S. East Coast
Tropical Storm Leslie formed on Thursday in the Central Atlantic. Leslie's formation date of August 30 puts 2012 in 2nd place for earliest formation date of the season's 12th tropical storm. Only 1995 had an earlier formation date of the season's 12th storm. With records dating back to 1851, this year is only the second time 8 total storms have formed in August. The other year was 2004, when the first storm of the season formed on August 1 (Alex), and the 8th storm (Hermine) formed on August 29th. Satellite loops show that Leslie has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and respectable low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow. Conditions appear ripe to allow Leslie to intensify into a Category 2 hurricane by Sunday. Fortunately, Hurricane Kirk is weakening the ridge of high pressure to the north of Leslie, and Leslie is expected to turn to the northwest and miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, steering currents for Leslie are expected to collapse early next week, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The storm will then slowly meander over the open ocean for many days, potentially threatening Bermuda. Leslie will stay stuck until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast around September 8. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie to the north and then northeast by September 9. At that time, Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in New England, Canada, or the Mid-Atlantic states. Leslie could also miss land entirely; this all depends upon the timing and strength of the September 8 trough of low pressure. Regardless, Leslie is expected to bring an extended period of high waves to the U.S. coast. According to NOAA's Wavewatch III model, large swells from Leslie will reach Bermuda by Monday, and arrive along the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday. These waves will be capable of creating dangerous rip currents and beach erosion.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to Isaac
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, are in Mississippi, helping out with Isaac relief efforts. You can check out their progress or donate to Portlight's disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website.

I'm planning on taking Saturday off, but will have a new post for you on Sunday. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Isaac Louisiana (apphotos)
People play in the storm surge from Hurricane Isaac, on Lakeshore Drive along Lake Pontchartrain, as the storm nears land, in New Orleans, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana
Portlight volunteers at Biloxi shelter (Portlight)
Portlight volunteers at Biloxi shelter
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana (apphotos)
Research students from the the University of Alabama measure wind speeds as Hurricane Isaac makes landfall, Wednesday, Aug. 29, 2012, in New Orleans, La. Isaac was packing 80 mph winds, making it a Category 1 hurricane. It came ashore early Tuesday near the mouth of the Mississippi River, driving a wall of water nearly 11 feet high inland and soaking a neck of land that stretches into the Gulf. The storm stalled for several hours before resuming a slow trek inland, and forecasters said that was
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana
TS Isaac (Raine911)
Between the rain bands
TS Isaac

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That post is exactly why I think it would be great to do a 33.3% system. 1 each for wind, rain and surge. We have surge models so we can calculate that, we have rainfall rates so we can calculate that too. On a scale of 1-5 each category is rated and then all 3 are added together and then divided by 3. With the rain and surge on that scale Isaac would've at least been a category 3 and people would've paid attention to the destructive power he had. I know some have mentioned size as well, but with this system you can just rate ateared of coastline from 1-5 on what effects would be felt. Mississippi and Louisiana coast would probably be a 3 Alabama a 2 and so on and so forth rather then just tropical storm/hurricane. What do you guys think of that? I think it'd be much better because the water is almost always the killer.
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1521. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I could not believe the nws saying it was still flooding there this morning.
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1520. sar2401
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I'm reluctant to go with the next layer down, so this is the 700-850 mb. steering layer for a storm between 1000-1010 mb. pressure.



I'm confused about that steering winds graphic. It shows a very deep low pressure system in the Gulf, almost as if Isaac was still there. What's the deal with that?
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GFS 144 hrs. I have my doubts about the intensity and the track is highly uncertain as highlighted by the NHC. So take this for what its worth.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
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Quoting carpentergrl:


People were lined up waiting on the buses 40 minutes ago when I spoke to a friend who lives in the evac area. I live in Bush, LA and am about 3/4 mile outside the mandatory evacuation area.

3/4 of a mile? That's a little close don't you think?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34842
Quoting RTSplayer:


No.

This is an entirely different river basin several dozen miles to the east, which is completely on the other side of St. Tammany, the next parish to the east.

On TWC a spokesperson for the parish said there are 1200 families in the immediate area, and they are using Reverse 9-1-1 calls to warn everyone to leave, and taking them out by buses where possible.


The Tangipahoa River is in Tangipahoa Parish; that's the river that was supposedly going to have a dam failure to the north in Percy Quinn state park in Mississippi. Tangipahoa river is still having problems, but probably won't break the record flood stage. It is supposed to flow over highways 190 and highway 22 in several places, but is still going to be about a foot and a half below the previous record.


People were lined up waiting on the buses 40 minutes ago when I spoke to a friend who lives in the evac area. I live in Bush, LA and am about 3/4 mile outside the mandatory evacuation area.
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1515. LargoFl
great site here about Mold after the flooding, give you tipsLink
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Quoting victoriahurricane:


Is this the same dam officials were worried would fail a day ago?


No, that was the Tangipahoa River and Lake Dam in Mississippi. It is directly north of LA 55 and effected the towns of Kentwood to Robert Louisiana.

We are only miles from the Mississippi border on the south eastern side of the state: The Pearl River divides the two states. We are located above Slidell LA if you follow LA 41 and Covington, LA if you follow LA 21 north.
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Quoting victoriahurricane:


Is this the same dam officials were worried would fail a day ago?


No.

This is an entirely different river basin several dozen miles to the east, which is completely on the other side of St. Tammany, the next parish to the east.

On TWC a spokesperson for the parish said there are 1200 families in the immediate area, and they are using Reverse 9-1-1 calls to warn everyone to leave, and taking them out by buses where possible.


The Tangipahoa River is in Tangipahoa Parish; that's the river that was supposedly going to have a dam failure to the north in Percy Quinn state park in Mississippi. Tangipahoa river is still having problems, but probably won't break the record flood stage. It is supposed to flow over highways 190 and highway 22 in several places, but is still going to be about a foot and a half below the previous record.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1512. LargoFl
Quoting islandgirls:
Good afternoon all! Stormcaribbean's closest point of Leslie's passing on Sunday 5:00am was 300 plus miles now the closest point for the same time is 276.4 miles. Is there any chance of Leslie passing even closer (to Antigua)?
..here's the latest... THE
NEW NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE TRACK A BIT FASTER AND LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS. THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT INVOLVES THE INTERACTION OF MANY
FEATURES...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC...A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE
OF FLORIDA...AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...WHICH ENDS UP BEING A BIT SLOWER AND WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
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1511. LargoFl
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



The president-elect of the American Meteorological Society, J. Marshall Shepherd, wrote a blog post about the Lessons from Isaac.

Lessons from Isaac: Communicating the hurricane hazard 

The Rain and Category Bias: A major concern for me is that media and public familiarity with the Saffir-Simpson (SS) scale leads to underestimation of the most deadly threat of a hurricane, inland freshwater flooding. It is very common to see a reporter on the beach in the wind, struggling to stand.  It is also common to focus on what the SS category of the storm is and when it will become a hurricane or a “category 3” storm. A gentleman from Plaquemines Parish, discussing a levee breach and severe flooding in the Parish said, “we didn’t leave because they were saying it was not going to be a Katrina, but we wish we did”. 

This illustrates, in my view, an over dependence on assuming threats are only associated with major hurricanes. In fact, our own studies have shown that weaker storms can be significant rain-flood producers. With Isaac, the storm was also very large in area and moving very slowly. This combination led to localized rainfall totals in the 20 to 30 inch range. The “water” from rainfall and flooding is just as significant as the wind and surge. Is it time to consider an augmentation of the Saffir Simpson scale to capture the rainfall-flood threat? It is a difficult science problem, but probably one worth investigating. I also argue that our media colleagues must consider their coverage strategy and category “anticipation” or hype carefully.



http://isaaclessons.blogspot.com/2012/08/as-meteo rologist-intrigued-by-storms.html
i totaly agree with this, way too much was said about, its only a cat-1, just look at the flooding and damage,after the water subsides, it would not surprise me if whole neighborhoods have to be bulldozed due to the deadly mold that will surely happen..could be..whole towns, we will have to see as time goes by...this is not over by a long shot..gee
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1510. msphar
What! No RI for Leslie, bummer babe.

So long as she stays on her side of 20X60 I'm happy.
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Quoting carpentergrl:


The dam, or lock is on a diversion canal that connects the Bouge Chitto and Pearl Rivers in Northern St. Tammany Parish LA. It then runs parallel to the Pearl River southward. The failure is being called imminent at this point. This will allow water from BOTH rain swollen rivers to enter the Pearl River and flow downstream flooding the east side of LA 41.

I don't know the exact population, but would guess several hundred.


Looks like several hundred might be right.. Plenty of small subdivisions and homestead areas. I hope they stop the lock from failing and get the folks out.
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NEW VIDEO BLOG UPDATE
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Quoting carpentergrl:


The dam, or lock is on a diversion canal that connects the Bouge Chitto and Pearl Rivers in Northern St. Tammany Parish LA. It then runs parallel to the Pearl River southward. The failure is being called imminent at this point. This will allow water from BOTH rain swollen rivers to enter the Pearl River and flow downstream flooding the east side of LA 41.

I don't know the exact population, but would guess several hundred.


Is this the same dam officials were worried would fail a day ago?
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1506. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting shoreacres:


Can you see me waving? I'm in South Shore, looking out my window at the Nassau Bay Hilton this very minute. ;)


All the folks from south of Houston. I'm in clear lake but drive by you to get to my boat in watergate.
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Quoting shoreacres:


Can you see me waving? I'm in South Shore, looking out my window at the Nassau Bay Hilton this very minute. ;)


OK cool. I work for HEB at the Blackhawk Store on Beltway 8 and I45. Actually I am filling in for the Seafood Manager at the HEB Clear Lake store for 2 more weeks. What do you do?
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Quoting smartone:


I am in Nassau Bay right by NASA. Howdy to yall as well.


Can you see me waving? I'm in South Shore, looking out my window at the Nassau Bay Hilton this very minute. ;)
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The president-elect of the American Meteorological Society, J. Marshall Shepherd, wrote a blog post about the Lessons from Isaac.

Lessons from Isaac: Communicating the hurricane hazard 

The Rain and Category Bias: A major concern for me is that media and public familiarity with the Saffir-Simpson (SS) scale leads to underestimation of the most deadly threat of a hurricane, inland freshwater flooding. It is very common to see a reporter on the beach in the wind, struggling to stand.  It is also common to focus on what the SS category of the storm is and when it will become a hurricane or a “category 3” storm. A gentleman from Plaquemines Parish, discussing a levee breach and severe flooding in the Parish said, “we didn’t leave because they were saying it was not going to be a Katrina, but we wish we did”. 

This illustrates, in my view, an over dependence on assuming threats are only associated with major hurricanes. In fact, our own studies have shown that weaker storms can be significant rain-flood producers. With Isaac, the storm was also very large in area and moving very slowly. This combination led to localized rainfall totals in the 20 to 30 inch range. The “water” from rainfall and flooding is just as significant as the wind and surge. Is it time to consider an augmentation of the Saffir Simpson scale to capture the rainfall-flood threat? It is a difficult science problem, but probably one worth investigating. I also argue that our media colleagues must consider their coverage strategy and category “anticipation” or hype carefully.



http://isaaclessons.blogspot.com/2012/08/as-meteo rologist-intrigued-by-storms.html
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6115
Quoting Pirate999:


Hey neighbor. I'm off of 2351.. East side if 45.


I am in Nassau Bay right by NASA. Howdy to yall as well.
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Good afternoon all! Stormcaribbean's closest point of Leslie's passing on Sunday 5:00am was 300 plus miles now the closest point for the same time is 276.4 miles. Is there any chance of Leslie passing even closer (to Antigua)?
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Reading to catch up. Leslie is still going north out to sea, correct?
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1498. GetReal



Put me in the Leslie is decoupled camp.... IMO the LLC is currently to far away from the MLC and getting further away with each passing hour. IMO the only chance for this system is for a new LLC to form under the deeper convection associated with the MLC.
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Quoting victoriahurricane:
For someone not familiar with lock 1/2, does that mean the damn is going to fail? How many people will be effected?


The dam, or lock is on a diversion canal that connects the Bouge Chitto and Pearl Rivers in Northern St. Tammany Parish LA. It then runs parallel to the Pearl River southward. The failure is being called imminent at this point. This will allow water from BOTH rain swollen rivers to enter the Pearl River and flow downstream flooding the east side of LA 41.

I don't know the exact population, but would guess several hundred.
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NOAA's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) map of rainfall accumulations for the week leading up to September 1, 2012.



From:
http://all-geo.org/highlyallochthonous/2012/09/in -slow-moving-hurricanes-the-danger-comes-from-all- the-water/
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6115
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Leslie was doing so well and now look.

Poor Leslie, she was so young. I think eventually she will redeem herself but not now.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:


Well, that's heartening.... Not. ;)
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For someone not familiar with lock 1/2, does that mean the damn is going to fail? How many people will be effected?
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1492. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting wxmod:
Speaking of beautiful days! Bring your fishing pole. North Pole.



actually its improving ice is soon too refreeze now as the sun begins to lower in the sky the melt season is done in 14 days by mid sept. things change big time
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Quoting Pirate999:


That's a good stretch of land between the two locks. How many people in that area?


I'm not exactly sure. It is a 12 mile stretch with many small sub-divisions along the way. I'd say several hundred at least.
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Leslie was doing so well and now look.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34842





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The Northern Antilles will probably experience some squalls and high surf!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8647
Quoting Gearsts:
Can't belive Leslie is doing a Chris and it was looking weard and good last night.

If anything, I would think this would be pulling a Jeanne. Jeanne went through Hispaniola and got severely disrupted after its encounter with the island to the point that only a LLC and disorganized shower activity remained. Then it headed north, stalled as the steering currents collapsed and then a high built in underneath and we know what happened after that.
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Quoting carpentergrl:


NWS is saying the Pearl will crest on Monday, so the worst will be through the weekend. I am sure the water will take a while to go back whence it came though. The ground here to totally saturated: If you take a shovel and dig a single shovel-full of dirt the hole immediately fills with water. My rain gauge stopped collecting water after 10 inches during Isaac and we had had exceptionally high rain amounts in the weeks prior.

Their are some people on high ground in the evac area that I could not talk out of staying and hunkering down. They said water didn't reach their places during the 1930's flood. They have a good sized boat fueled and ready, but I am going to keep tabs on them during this event in case they run into trouble.



That's a good stretch of land between the two locks. How many people in that area?
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Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8647
Quoting LargoFl:
This is going to be happening for maybe weeks folks, all that water seeping into the rivers etc, takes time and lots more flooding in the days and maybe weeks ahead..that storm dropped alot of rainwater, and is still dropping it


NWS is saying the Pearl will crest on Monday, so the worst will be through the weekend. I am sure the water will take a while to go back whence it came though. The ground here to totally saturated: If you take a shovel and dig a single shovel-full of dirt the hole immediately fills with water. My rain gauge stopped collecting water after 10 inches during Isaac and we had had exceptionally high rain amounts in the weeks prior.

Their are some people on high ground in the evac area that I could not talk out of staying and hunkering down. They said water didn't reach their places during the 1930's flood. They have a good sized boat fueled and ready, but I am going to keep tabs on them during this event in case they run into trouble.

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Off of FL you see that!?!?!
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I'm reluctant to go with the next layer down, so this is the 700-850 mb. steering layer for a storm between 1000-1010 mb. pressure.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1481. MahFL
Quoting wxchaser97:

I think once Leslie gets into a better environment and becomes vertically staked then she will put on a show.


Yes but that's not in the forecast, forecast is for more shear.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
trHU..........If I may ask......Where do you live?? Not Louisiana or south Florida I am assuming


that looks like to me
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1479. LargoFl
Quoting carpentergrl:


Yep, the river is less than 2 miles from my house and the dam about 6 miles northeast. I am outside the mandatory evac area, which is the east side of LA 41 from Bush, to Hickory LA (I am 1.2 miles to the west of LA 41 and uphill a good bit). I talked to a friend who lives in the evac area and she says people are lining up on the side of the road waiting on buses being sent by the parish.
Apparently, this same dam failed in the 30's and folks remember where the water went during that. They are taking the evacuation very seriously.
This is going to be happening for maybe weeks folks, all that water seeping into the rivers etc, takes time and lots more flooding in the days and maybe weeks ahead..that storm dropped alot of rainwater, and is still dropping it
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Yep, we sure do. There was one rain storm a few years ago that wasn't a tropical storm, yet it rained so much the water was lapping against my back door.


I think I remember that.. Rain trained over us.
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Quoting Pirate999:


Lived in LC for years.. Clear creek village. Allison brought clear creek to about 5 feet of my front door. We understand the issues of a slow moving TS.


Yep, we sure do. There was one rain storm a few years ago that wasn't a tropical storm, yet it rained so much the water was lapping against my back door.
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1476. auburn (Mod)


wwltv.com

Posted on September 1, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Updated today at 3:18 PM

St. Tammany Parish EOC calling immediate and mandatory evacuation for area between Locks 1 and 2on the Pearl River Diversion Canal and South to highway 36 between Bush and Hickory.

"Failure of Lock 2 is imminent," says a statement from the EOC.

The area covers Bush to the north, Hickory to the south and east of Highway 41, according to Suzanne Parsons, the public information officer for St. Tammany Parish.
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Quoting Pirate999:


Cutting it a little close to the islands.


Yep.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Several days later and the major problems continue.

Rt @wwltv BREAKING: Mandatory evacs in St Tammany. Failure of Lock 2 is imminent! #isaac


Yep, the river is less than 2 miles from my house and the dam about 6 miles northeast. I am outside the mandatory evac area, which is the east side of LA 41 from Bush, to Hickory LA (I am 1.2 miles to the west of LA 41 and uphill a good bit). I talked to a friend who lives in the evac area and she says people are lining up on the side of the road waiting on buses being sent by the parish.
Apparently, this same dam failed in the 30's and folks remember where the water went during that. They are taking the evacuation very seriously.
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Quoting Civicane49:
Tropical Storm Leslie:



Low level center appears to be exposed.


Cutting it a little close to the islands.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


I'm on 518 near the Friendswood/League City line.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


I'm on 518 near the Friendswood/League City line.


Lived in LC for years.. Clear creek village. Allison brought clear creek to about 5 feet of my front door. We understand the issues of a slow moving TS.
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Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

About

Dr. Masters (r) co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Afternoon clouds over Southwest Puerto Rico
Storm clouds gathering over Half Dome
Sierra snow
snowman at Yosemite Falls
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