Isaac slamming Gulf Coast with damaging floods, tornadoes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on August 30, 2012

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Slow-moving Tropical Storm Isaac continues to hammer coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida's Panhandle with tornadoes, torrential rains, high winds, and a damaging storm surge. Over the past 24 hours, destructive tornadoes have touched down in Biloxi and Pascagoula, Mississippi, and one person was killed by a tree falling on a car in Pearl River County, Mississippi. A major flood event is occurring in Slidell, Louisiana, where Isaac's storm surge filled Bayou Bonfouca and the W-14 Canal, inundating portions of the city with 1 - 5 feet of water. While Isaac is now a weakening minimal-strength tropical storm, it is still a potent rainmaker, and will cause damaging floods all along its path for the next three days. Major river flooding is occurring or is about to occur on a number of rivers in the landfall area. In north central Tangipahoa Parish in southeast Louisiana and southwestern Pike County in southern Mississippi, a mandatory evacuation has been ordered for all low-lying areas and along the Tangipahoa River, due to the potential failure of the Lake Tangipahoa dam. Audubon Park in New Orleans, recorded 11.19" of rain as of 7 pm Wednesday night. An earlier amount of 19" was found to be erroneous, and this is not a 24-hour precipitation record for the city. According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, New Orleans' greatest 24-hour rainfall on record is 14.01" on July 24 - 25, 1933. The Louisiana official state 24-hour record is 22.00" on Aug. 29, 1962 at Hakberry, although U.S. Army Corps of Engineers `Storm Studies' mentions a 23.80" falling in a 24-hour period at Millers Island during a TS on Aug 7-8, 1940. Storm total was 37.50" over a 60-hour period there during that event.

A few other rainfall totals from Isaac, through 11 am EDT on Thursday:

15.02" Marion, MS
10.09" Hattiesburg, MS
10.15" Gulfport, MS
9.80" Slidell, LA
9.74" Biloxi, MS
8.52" Mobile, AL
5.57" Baton Rouge, LA


Figure 1. Isaac's winds and storm surge overcomes the seawall and floods South Beach Boulevard in Waveland, Miss., Wednesday, Aug. 29, 2012, the seventh anniversary of Hurricane Katrina hitting the Gulf Coast. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis). Waveland experienced a storm surge in excess of 5' for 36 hours.

Isaac's storm surge winds down
Storm surge levels along the coast of Mississippi and surrounding areas are gradually receding, and the surge has finally fallen below 5' at Waveland, which experienced a storm surge in excess of 5' for 36 hours. Isaac's storm surge levels were characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane, and lasted for an exceptionally long period of time. Waveland, Mississippi experienced a peak surge of 8' and peak storm tide of 9' (surge plus the natural high tide), which beat the levels that occurred during Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008 (7' of storm tide.) The peak 11.06' storm surge at Shell Beach, which is in Lake Borgne, 30 miles southeast of New Orleans, exceeded the 9.5' surge recorded there during Gustav. According to an article in nola.com, Isaac pushed a storm surge of 13.6' into Lake Borgne, on the east side of New Orleans. This is not far from the 15.5' storm surge Hurricane Katrina brought to the location. It is quite possible that Isaac's storm surge might have breached levees of the east side of New Orleans, flooding areas inhabited by tens of thousands of people, had the Army Corps of Engineers not completed their $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans flood defenses this year. I estimate that storm surge damage from Isaac will exceed $2 billion. Isaac has likely caused $2.5 billion in insured damage not related to flooding, insurance firm Eqecat estimated yesterday. Here were some of the peak storm surge values that were recorded at NOAA tide gauges during Isaac:

11.1' Shell Beach, LA
8.0' Waveland, MS
3.5' Pensacola, FL
4.6' Pascagoula, MS
3.8' Mobile, AL


Figure 2. A TRMM satellite 3-D view of rainfall on Aug. 28 showed a few very powerful thunderstorms near Isaac's eye were reaching heights of almost 17 km (10.6 miles.) Intense bands of rain around Isaac were occasionally dropping rain at a rate of over 2.75 inches per hour. Image credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierce.

Isaac's storm surge on the Mississippi River
A storm surge estimated at 12' moved up the Mississippi in Plaquemines Parish near Port Sulphur, LA, near 8:30 pm EDT Tuesday, causing overtopping of the levees and flooding of homes in the mandatory evacuation areas behind the levees. These levees were not part of the $14.5 billion levee upgrade New Orleans got after Hurricane Katrina, and were not rated to Category 3 hurricane strength, like the levees protecting New Orleans are. Since salt water is more dense than fresh water, the surge travelled along the bottom of the river, with the fresh water flow of the river lying on top. The surge continued upriver, and before reaching New Orleans, encountered an underwater barrier in Plaquemines Parish. This barrier was constructed by the Army Corps of Engineers beginning on August 15, in order to keep salt water from moving upstream and contaminating drinking water for Plaquemines Parish and New Orleans. Salt water had made it 90 miles upriver to the outskirts of New Orleans, due to the low flow rate of the river (which had dropped 7' below average in height due to the drought of 2012.) According to a spokesperson for the National Weather Service River Forecast Office, this barrier was probably able to completely block the flow of salt water upriver due to Isaac's storm surge, and no salt water made it as far as New Orleans. However, the massive intrusion of ocean water into the river channel caused the mighty Mississippi's fresh water flow to back up for hundreds of miles. Water levels were elevated by 10' in New Orleans (103 miles upstream from the mouth of the Mississippi), 8' in Baton Rouge (228 miles upstream), and 1.4' at Knox Landing, an amazing 314 miles upstream.

Hurricane Kirk in the Central Atlantic
Hurricane Kirk intensified into a 75 mph Category 1 hurricane this morning, becoming the busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season's fifth hurricane. With the season's mid-point of September 10 still almost 2 weeks away, we've already had 12 named storms and 5 hurricanes, which is close to what an entire season experiences in an average year (11 named storms and 6 hurricanes.) Kirk should stay well out to sea and not trouble any land areas.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Kirk.

Tropical Storm Leslie forms in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Leslie has formed in the Central Atlantic. Leslie's formation on August 30 puts 2012 in 2nd place for earliest formation date of the season's 12th storm. Only 1995 had an earlier formation date of the season's 12th storm. With records dating back to 1851, this year is only the second time 8 total storms have formed in August. The other year was 2004, when the first storm of the season formed on August 1 (Alex), and the 8th storm (Hermine)
formed on August 29th. Leslie is organizing quickly, and appears destined to become a hurricane before the week is out. Fortunately, Hurricane Kirk is weakening the ridge of high pressure to the north of Leslie, and Leslie is expected to turn to the northwest and miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. In the long term, it remains unclear if Leslie will follow Kirk and fully recurve out to sea. The latest 2 runs of the GFS model have predicted that Leslie will recurve out to sea and not threaten any land areas, but the latest 2 runs of the ECMWF model have predicted that the trough of low pressure pulling Kirk to the northeast will not be strong enough to recurve Leslie out to sea. Instead, the ECMWF predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in early next week, forcing Leslie more to the northwest, making the storm a potential threat to Bermuda, then to the Northeast U.S. and Canada in 8 - 11 days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Isaac Louisiana (apphotos)
Two men walk in the storm surge from Isaac, on Lakeshore Drive along Lake Pontchartrain, as the storm approaches landfall, in New Orleans, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana
west palm beach flood isaac (alishu)
West Palm Beach flood from Isaac
west palm beach flood isaac
Hurricane Isaac Impacts Navarre Beach & Pier10 (jennjeff1)
Hurricane Isaac versus Navarre Beach Pier, the longest concrete pier on the Gulf of Mexico
Hurricane Isaac Impacts Navarre Beach & Pier10

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Plan of the Day
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 301400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU AUGUST 3O 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z AUGUST TO 01/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-103

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
TMB



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1337. ncstorm
Quoting 7544:


hmmm whats that system over fl on the ninth dot tell me its issaac


I dont think so..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14253
Quoting allancalderini:
What anime is the one of your avatar Washi? I am addicted to your avatar thanks in Advance if you answer me I am leaving to school.
I don't know.My daughter downloaded this on my computer and I took it.
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


.....is it me you're looking for?



LOL

I can see it in your eyes,
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Quoting PublicAdjuster2:
I know long range forecasts are difficult but is there any chance that Leslie hits the East Coast?




too early too tell
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114655
1333. 7544
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning Everyone..I see Leslie track has shifted west on latest two GFS runs right with the Euro..

Euro




hmmm whats that system over fl on the ninth dot tell me its issaac
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we sould see are 1st recon fight on Saturday wish sould all so be helping full in finding the center and where it really is
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114655
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hello?
What anime is the one of your avatar Washi? I am addicted to your avatar thanks in Advance if you answer me I am leaving to school.
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I know long range forecasts are difficult but is there any chance that Leslie hits the East Coast?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:


NOAA Doesn't think a HH should be sent. Nothing on the cards yet. Maybe it's to far for them to worry about.

HH don't go out until a storm hits 55W. Aside from the range factor, what's the point?
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1328. ncstorm
Quoting allancalderini:
Michael and Nadine?


No just Michael..that was leslie heading north
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14253
ATCF still has Kirk at 90 knots:

AL, 11, 2012083112, , BEST, 0, 306N, 509W, 90, 972, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 15, 1016, 150, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KIRK, D,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning Everyone..I see Leslie track has shifted west on latest two GFS runs right with the Euro..

Euro


Michael and Nadine?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Hello?


.....is it me you're looking for?



LOL
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 841
1324. ncstorm
Good Morning Everyone..I see Leslie track has shifted west on latest two GFS runs right with the Euro..

Euro


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14253
Quoting CASANOVA7823:
Imagery Loop for Leslie on my mobile device (iPhone4s)? I need a link please. Thanks.

You can download the app called "Hurricane Tracker for iOS" (free) in App Store, it contains a bunch of radar loops, local satellite loops, projected paths etc etc
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1322. icmoore
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hello?


Hello? :)
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Quoting CASANOVA7823:
Imagery Loop for Leslie on my mobile device (iPhone4s)? I need a link please. Thanks.
This should work: Link
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
Link




20120831 1145 15.7 48.6 T3.0/3.5 12L LESLIE


Definitely does not look that far north to me.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Hello?

You know why they call them telephone bugs? Because they say hello and hang up! /I kill myself
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Why does that suprise you? Leslie is right on track. There will be little wobbles at it moves along. It happens with every storm but the overall motion is north of west.
I didn't say it surprised me I just wanted to know why he thought it was further south.
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Hello?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'd say Kirk is going through an EWRC if anything. 5 knots of wind shear won't do a thing to even the smallest of tropical cyclones.

Why has the whole system warmed, even if an EWRC was going to happen, it wouldn't effect to whole system.

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How much is the damage if Isaac until now?
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Water temps are still 28C but I feel it's the SW shear that's effected him, It's only 5kts but Kirk is so small, that's all it may need to disrupt him.


I'd say Kirk is going through an EWRC if anything. 5 knots of wind shear won't do a thing to even the smallest of tropical cyclones.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31338
Imagery Loop for Leslie on my mobile device (iPhone4s)? I need a link please. Thanks.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's too bad, made a fine run at it though, considering how far up in the North Atlantic he is in.


Water temps are still 28C but I feel it's the SW shear that's effected him, It's only 5kts but Kirk is so small, that's all it may need to disrupt him.

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1310. Max1023
I would not be surprised if Kirk is undergoing an EWRC. I has been strong enough for long enough for that to be likely, especially when the eye was as small as 10nm wide.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

He's not looking as good as he was earlier. He's lost his eye.



Cloud tops are warming also.


He's gone past his peak. Maybe in post season analysis he might get upgraded.
That's too bad, made a fine run at it though, considering how far up in the North Atlantic he is in.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting washingtonian115:
C'mon Kirk.You can become a major.

He's not looking as good as he was earlier. He's lost his eye.



Cloud tops are warming also.


He's gone past his peak. Maybe in post season analysis he might get upgraded.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


really I always found it to be a Masculin name
Same here my uncle is name Leslie. Must be the spelling like how you have Francis and Frances.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I see Leslie is a unisex name.
So is Gert, apparenty.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Convection in the eyewall of Kirk has weakened and the eye has become a bit less well defined. It may have peaked.
That's what UW-CIMSS is showing this morning:

It looks like a little bad luck for Kirk. The 23:45 SSD reading was T4.5, which got averaged with the CIMSS ADT estimate for the 5AM update. Forty-five minutes later, the new SSD pass came in at T5.0/5.0. If that'd been averaged with CIMSS 5.5, it would've made Kirk a major. But by the time we get another estimate at 11am, CIMSS will be back in the high 4s.

In the postseason, when someone takes a look at all of this data, I'm sure they'll decide that Kirk became the season's first major overnight before weakening again this morning. But while it may get a shout-out in the next discussion, I don't expect it to actually make it in a formal bulletin.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I see Leslie is a unisex name.


really I always found it to be a Masculin name
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Quoting washingtonian115:
C'mon Kirk.You can become a major.

it should be very soon if it is not one already
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I see Leslie is a unisex name.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
I need more microwave data I need more sattelite data I need more Sfc Obs data Leslie is starting to pull up near to an obs near 14.5N 53W I want to see what that does for the rest of the morning I hope NHC has HH flying out either today or tomorrow morning
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C'mon Kirk.You can become a major.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
14.1N 43.4W


14.4N 45.3W



Movement N x 0.3N NHC says Movement is W?? not WNW.

14.7N 46.8W

Movement N x 0.3N, again NHC says movement is W?? not WNW.


Movement N x 0.5N NHC says movement is WNW.


It is WNW, probably at 295-300 degrees.
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Quoting Agathorn:


Yeah I remember seeing that on the models and though to myself, "Oh god that could be bad. I hope this doesn't play out". Thankfully it isn't. It was almost the EXACT same track!


One of these days a bad scenario WILL play out.

Luck runs out eventually, but when it does, you better damn hope the models were correct and gave us a large window to prepare.
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you know what stormwatcherCI I am not going to do that graphic yet but I stand by what I said about where it is but its just that its too early to tell and I need more data to confirm and to strengthen my thinking
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1204 HurricaneHunterJoe: Kirk going fishing? What about Leslie? She still down about 14N?

Icelandic cod might not hafta worry; Kirk's been strongly recurving since it became a TropicalCyclone.
Mirroring that curvature rate into the future sends Kirk into the Azores.
Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneKirk at 31Aug.6pm

The easternmost dot on the connected lines is where Invest97L became TropicalDepressionEleven.
The easternmost dot on the kinked line is where TD.11 became TropicalStormKirk.
The westernmost dot on the kinked line is where TS.Kirk became HurricaneKirk
The northernmost dot on the connected lines is H.Kirk's most recently reported position

Copy&paste cvu, sma, pxo, lpa, 23.7n43.4w- 23.8n44.5w, 23.8n44.5w- 24.3n45.5w- 24.6n46.3w- 25.1n47.1w- 25.5n47.9w- 26.1n48.6w- 26.1n48.6w- 26.8n49.2w- 27.6n50.0w, 27.6n50.0w-28.5n50.5w, 28.5n50.5w-29.6n50.7w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Leslie is already at 14.9n47.1w. A straightline projection of its initial heading between its 30Aug.12am and 31Aug.6am positions already takes it 13.5miles(21.6kilometres)North of Anegada
If it maintains that heading of 286.5*WNWest (or higher), Leslie would pass over the LesserAntilles by an even larger margin: enough of one that the impact from its windfield would be minimal.
Of course, its rains could still have a strong effect.

Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormLeslie at 31Aug.6pm

The easternmost dot on the connected lines is where Invest98L became TropicalDepressionTwelve.
The next dot to the left is where TD.12 became TropicalStormLeslie
The westernmost dot on the connected lines is TS.Leslie's most recently reported position

Copy&paste bgi, 13.6n40.8w-13.8n42.6w, 13.8n42.6w-14.2n44.5w, 14.2n44.5w-14.5n45.7w, 14.5n45.7w-14.9n47.1w, 14.5n45.7w-18.941n64.293w, 18.749n64.332w-18.941n64.293w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL092012
400 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 93.9W
ABOUT 52 MILES...83 KM...SE OF FORT SMITH.
ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...W OF LITTLE ROCK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...40 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
IN ADDITION TO EXTREME EASTERN ARKANSAS.
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREAS OF ARKANSAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI COASTLINES.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 8 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.
THESE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HEAVY
RAINS WILL REACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE ONGOING
DROUGHT WILL TEND TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING DOWN
INITIALLY...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER TIME.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 7 PM CDT

...ALABAMA...
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW 11.07
MOBILE/BATES FIELD 9.67
WILMER 7.9 SE 8.75
FAIRHOPE 2.3 N 6.42
DAPHNE 1.8 ESE 5.87
THEODORE 8.0 SSE 5.12
POINT CLEAR 1.6 SSW 5.04
SILVERHILL 0.9 SSE 4.34
FOLEY 2.0 SSW 3.71

...ARKANSAS...
MONTICELLO AIRPORT 2.91
PINE BLUFF/GRIDER FIELD 2.63
EL DORADO/GOODWIN FIELD 1.71

...FLORIDA...
VERO BEACH 5.2 S 16.60
ROYAL PALM BEACH 5.0 W 16.29
BOYNTON BEACH 1.9 NNW 14.41
PORT ST LUCIE 1.5 NE 13.04
ABERDEEN 4.2 NNW 12.41
PALM CITY 4.0 SW 11.69
HOMESTEAD AFB 9.37
FORT PIERCE/ST LUCIE 9.18
WEST PALM BEACH INTL ARPT 8.64
VERO BEACH MUNI ARPT 7.66
FORT LAUDERDALE EXECUTIVE APT 7.02
MIAMI/OPA LOCKA 6.64
POMPANO BEACH AIRPARK 5.33
WINTER HAVEN GILBERT ARPT 5.19
ORLANDO/HERNDON 5.12
HOLLYWOOD/NORTH PERRY ARPT 5.12

...GEORGIA...
GUYTON 1.9 S 5.60
BROOKLET 13.1 SE 4.60
RINCON 1.2 NNW 4.03
MONROE 5.6 NNE 3.11
JESUP 7.1 N 3.04
AUGUSTA/BUSH FIELD 2.53
ALMA/BACON CO. ARPT 2.49
SAVANNAH MUNI ARPT 2.47
FORT STEWART/WRIGHT AAF 2.06
AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD 1.95
MOODY AFB/VALDOSTA 1.50

...LOUISIANA...
NEW ORLEANS 20.08
RESERVE 0.5 SSE 13.46
LIVINGSTON 13.16
HAMMOND 2.3 WSW 11.93
TERRYTOWN 3.3 S 10.56
SLIDELL 10.40
ABITA SPRINGS 1.9 NE 10.15
BATON ROUGE/RYAN MUNI ARPT 4.57
BOOTHVILLE 4.20
MONROE RGNL ARPT 2.37
PATTERSON MEMORIAL ARPT 2.00
LAFAYETTE RGNL ARPT 1.55
ALEXANDRIA/ESLER 1.50

...MISSISSIPPI...
KILN 3.3 N 17.04
MARION RAWS/COLUMBIA 15.02
SAUCIER 1.7 NNE 12.78
PICAYUNE 5.6 ENE 12.17
DIAMONDHEAD 1.5 NE 12.04
LONG BEACH 0.7 S 11.95
MCCOMB/LEWIS FIELD 10.93
GULFPORT-BILOXI 10.85
PASCAGOULA 10.67
KEESLER AFB/BILOXI 10.17
HATTIESBURG/CHAIN MUNI ARPT 9.44
HATTIESBURG/LAUREL 7.93
JACKSON/HAWKINS FIELD 4.03
MERIDIAN/KEY FIELD 4.00
JACKSON WFO 3.93
MERIDIAN NAS/MCCAIN 1.72

...NORTH CAROLINA...
WILMINGTON/NEW HANOVER CO. ARPT 4.07
JACKSONVILLE/ELLIS AIRPORT 1.50

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
MOUNT PLEASANT 5.5 NNE 9.08
PAWLEYS ISLAND 5.6 NNE 8.36
CHARLESTON 2.8 NE 7.36
JOHNS ISLAND 9.0 SE 6.44
MEGGETT 1.8 W 4.85
BEAUFORT MCAS 3.59
ROCK HILL-YORK CO. ARPT 2.89
DARLINGTON 1.75

What a disaster!
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628



Still looks west to me and does look like the coc is just below 15N.Link
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Check out this loop....
Link
I counted about 6 more storms on top of what we already have out there which would put the total at that point to 18 named storms.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting AussieStorm:

So in about 3 hrs Leslie has travelled 0.7N, yet the NHC still says movement is West. mmmmmm
Actually, now they are saying wnw.
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Quoting Agathorn:


Yeah I remember seeing that on the models and though to myself, "Oh god that could be bad. I hope this doesn't play out". Thankfully it isn't. It was almost the EXACT same track!


Check out this loop....
Link
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Leslie has a nice anticyclone attached to her:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting LargoFl:
we all must thank that bermuda high and the changed conditions..because all the good models had Kirk AND leslie, hitting the same area's near or IN..the same area's as Isaac, one after another..what a diseaster That would have been, probably nothing left standing


Yeah I remember seeing that on the models and though to myself, "Oh god that could be bad. I hope this doesn't play out". Thankfully it isn't. It was almost the EXACT same track!
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500 mb. vort. displaced to the south of the center:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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