Isaac slamming Gulf Coast with damaging floods, tornadoes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on August 30, 2012

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Slow-moving Tropical Storm Isaac continues to hammer coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida's Panhandle with tornadoes, torrential rains, high winds, and a damaging storm surge. Over the past 24 hours, destructive tornadoes have touched down in Biloxi and Pascagoula, Mississippi, and one person was killed by a tree falling on a car in Pearl River County, Mississippi. A major flood event is occurring in Slidell, Louisiana, where Isaac's storm surge filled Bayou Bonfouca and the W-14 Canal, inundating portions of the city with 1 - 5 feet of water. While Isaac is now a weakening minimal-strength tropical storm, it is still a potent rainmaker, and will cause damaging floods all along its path for the next three days. Major river flooding is occurring or is about to occur on a number of rivers in the landfall area. In north central Tangipahoa Parish in southeast Louisiana and southwestern Pike County in southern Mississippi, a mandatory evacuation has been ordered for all low-lying areas and along the Tangipahoa River, due to the potential failure of the Lake Tangipahoa dam. Audubon Park in New Orleans, recorded 11.19" of rain as of 7 pm Wednesday night. An earlier amount of 19" was found to be erroneous, and this is not a 24-hour precipitation record for the city. According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, New Orleans' greatest 24-hour rainfall on record is 14.01" on July 24 - 25, 1933. The Louisiana official state 24-hour record is 22.00" on Aug. 29, 1962 at Hakberry, although U.S. Army Corps of Engineers `Storm Studies' mentions a 23.80" falling in a 24-hour period at Millers Island during a TS on Aug 7-8, 1940. Storm total was 37.50" over a 60-hour period there during that event.

A few other rainfall totals from Isaac, through 11 am EDT on Thursday:

15.02" Marion, MS
10.09" Hattiesburg, MS
10.15" Gulfport, MS
9.80" Slidell, LA
9.74" Biloxi, MS
8.52" Mobile, AL
5.57" Baton Rouge, LA


Figure 1. Isaac's winds and storm surge overcomes the seawall and floods South Beach Boulevard in Waveland, Miss., Wednesday, Aug. 29, 2012, the seventh anniversary of Hurricane Katrina hitting the Gulf Coast. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis). Waveland experienced a storm surge in excess of 5' for 36 hours.

Isaac's storm surge winds down
Storm surge levels along the coast of Mississippi and surrounding areas are gradually receding, and the surge has finally fallen below 5' at Waveland, which experienced a storm surge in excess of 5' for 36 hours. Isaac's storm surge levels were characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane, and lasted for an exceptionally long period of time. Waveland, Mississippi experienced a peak surge of 8' and peak storm tide of 9' (surge plus the natural high tide), which beat the levels that occurred during Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008 (7' of storm tide.) The peak 11.06' storm surge at Shell Beach, which is in Lake Borgne, 30 miles southeast of New Orleans, exceeded the 9.5' surge recorded there during Gustav. According to an article in nola.com, Isaac pushed a storm surge of 13.6' into Lake Borgne, on the east side of New Orleans. This is not far from the 15.5' storm surge Hurricane Katrina brought to the location. It is quite possible that Isaac's storm surge might have breached levees of the east side of New Orleans, flooding areas inhabited by tens of thousands of people, had the Army Corps of Engineers not completed their $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans flood defenses this year. I estimate that storm surge damage from Isaac will exceed $2 billion. Isaac has likely caused $2.5 billion in insured damage not related to flooding, insurance firm Eqecat estimated yesterday. Here were some of the peak storm surge values that were recorded at NOAA tide gauges during Isaac:

11.1' Shell Beach, LA
8.0' Waveland, MS
3.5' Pensacola, FL
4.6' Pascagoula, MS
3.8' Mobile, AL


Figure 2. A TRMM satellite 3-D view of rainfall on Aug. 28 showed a few very powerful thunderstorms near Isaac's eye were reaching heights of almost 17 km (10.6 miles.) Intense bands of rain around Isaac were occasionally dropping rain at a rate of over 2.75 inches per hour. Image credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierce.

Isaac's storm surge on the Mississippi River
A storm surge estimated at 12' moved up the Mississippi in Plaquemines Parish near Port Sulphur, LA, near 8:30 pm EDT Tuesday, causing overtopping of the levees and flooding of homes in the mandatory evacuation areas behind the levees. These levees were not part of the $14.5 billion levee upgrade New Orleans got after Hurricane Katrina, and were not rated to Category 3 hurricane strength, like the levees protecting New Orleans are. Since salt water is more dense than fresh water, the surge travelled along the bottom of the river, with the fresh water flow of the river lying on top. The surge continued upriver, and before reaching New Orleans, encountered an underwater barrier in Plaquemines Parish. This barrier was constructed by the Army Corps of Engineers beginning on August 15, in order to keep salt water from moving upstream and contaminating drinking water for Plaquemines Parish and New Orleans. Salt water had made it 90 miles upriver to the outskirts of New Orleans, due to the low flow rate of the river (which had dropped 7' below average in height due to the drought of 2012.) According to a spokesperson for the National Weather Service River Forecast Office, this barrier was probably able to completely block the flow of salt water upriver due to Isaac's storm surge, and no salt water made it as far as New Orleans. However, the massive intrusion of ocean water into the river channel caused the mighty Mississippi's fresh water flow to back up for hundreds of miles. Water levels were elevated by 10' in New Orleans (103 miles upstream from the mouth of the Mississippi), 8' in Baton Rouge (228 miles upstream), and 1.4' at Knox Landing, an amazing 314 miles upstream.

Hurricane Kirk in the Central Atlantic
Hurricane Kirk intensified into a 75 mph Category 1 hurricane this morning, becoming the busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season's fifth hurricane. With the season's mid-point of September 10 still almost 2 weeks away, we've already had 12 named storms and 5 hurricanes, which is close to what an entire season experiences in an average year (11 named storms and 6 hurricanes.) Kirk should stay well out to sea and not trouble any land areas.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Kirk.

Tropical Storm Leslie forms in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Leslie has formed in the Central Atlantic. Leslie's formation on August 30 puts 2012 in 2nd place for earliest formation date of the season's 12th storm. Only 1995 had an earlier formation date of the season's 12th storm. With records dating back to 1851, this year is only the second time 8 total storms have formed in August. The other year was 2004, when the first storm of the season formed on August 1 (Alex), and the 8th storm (Hermine)
formed on August 29th. Leslie is organizing quickly, and appears destined to become a hurricane before the week is out. Fortunately, Hurricane Kirk is weakening the ridge of high pressure to the north of Leslie, and Leslie is expected to turn to the northwest and miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. In the long term, it remains unclear if Leslie will follow Kirk and fully recurve out to sea. The latest 2 runs of the GFS model have predicted that Leslie will recurve out to sea and not threaten any land areas, but the latest 2 runs of the ECMWF model have predicted that the trough of low pressure pulling Kirk to the northeast will not be strong enough to recurve Leslie out to sea. Instead, the ECMWF predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in early next week, forcing Leslie more to the northwest, making the storm a potential threat to Bermuda, then to the Northeast U.S. and Canada in 8 - 11 days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Isaac Louisiana (apphotos)
Two men walk in the storm surge from Isaac, on Lakeshore Drive along Lake Pontchartrain, as the storm approaches landfall, in New Orleans, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana
west palm beach flood isaac (alishu)
West Palm Beach flood from Isaac
west palm beach flood isaac
Hurricane Isaac Impacts Navarre Beach & Pier10 (jennjeff1)
Hurricane Isaac versus Navarre Beach Pier, the longest concrete pier on the Gulf of Mexico
Hurricane Isaac Impacts Navarre Beach & Pier10

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Kirk is a nice cute looking hurricane. Small but strong, his eye is coming back out. Dare I say pinhole:)
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Kirk is kicking our the eye
not a 75 mph hurricane...
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Quoting Twisterman555:


I wonder what is going on here. . . . can this be right?
There've been a bunch of stories out of the region about the incredibly poor quality of the remote sensor and gauge readings. The good news is that all the flood control measures worked. The bad news is that we can build multi-billion barriers, but still install gauges that aren't robust enough to deliver reliable readings in storm conditions. A clearly erroneous reading like the one you quote is not a huge problem - but where we'll lack meaningful data about the conditions that the system actually encountered, it's a long term planning problem.
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Quoting HrDelta:


It doesn't sseem like anyone knows what they are doing with the dam. State officials in MS or the Reporters.

Props to Louisiana for acting correctly though.


Yeah, if there's any serious chance of that thing failing, evacs should be mandatory and quick IMO. That sort of thing is very dangerous and gives very little warning -- if there's anything like a "50/50" chance, which I've seen quoted a few times, I wouldn't want to stay anywhere near that river in the immediate vicinity.

I have dealt with officially official lines on this stuff a few times, and have developed the _personal_ rule of thumb that the harder the emergency management people clamp down on info and the more times they repeat how much they have it under control without adding additional info, the more I take the threat seriously and get my things in order to get out of dodge. :P
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hello everyone, Houma, LA here, Power is back on, We are all safe. I did have my storm door and one of by big glass plate windows shatter, but other than that, just a bunch of tree limbs to cleans up. It is raining now, harder than it did for the whole storm. Put
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Good afternoon

TS Leslie up and running South of the points at this time. The forward speed of 20 MPH is a clear indication that the sub tropical ridge to the North is still strong and therefore no immediate motion to the WNW is expected .

Once these systems build momentum in a particular direction they do not necessarily change course in a hurry. Leslie may get a lot closer to the NE Islands than presently forecasted.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

You're right, but all signs point to it staying well away from us.

Anyone heard from Pat and the NOLA gang today? Looks like they're still getting pounded down there, and now it looks like there's a couple dams in jeopardy of failing... scary situation.


Original track for Frances in 2004:


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Quoting GTcooliebai:
12/4/0


...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS...
2:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 30
Location: 14.3°N 44.3°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph


12/5/0

It doesn't sseem like anyone knows what they are doing with the dam. State officials in MS or the Reporters.

Props to Louisiana for acting correctly though.
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For perspective of how quickly Leslie has organized this morning, here is an IR image at 12:15Z today:



And here is Leslie only five hours later at 17:15Z:



Notice the pronounced increase in banding, and the outflow remains excellent.
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Dry air should leave both Kirk and Leslie in check.

Kirk:

Leslie:
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Quoting CJ5:


Based on the pictures it appears the dam is earthen like a levee but has a concrete spillway. I saw pictures where the earthen part opposite the water has several areas that have slide down. I saw no water pouring from the weakness.


Thanks. Am listening, but video doesn't stream well on this wee laptop, so I can't see what they're showing right now.
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Leslie moving due west IMO, it should be below 15N at 45W and pass roughly 1 degree of the next forecast point.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
Quoting AllStar17:


Far from certain.


Nothing is certain, especially this season it seems, but with the models agreeing this much, it would be a surprise for this to come west far enough. The good people in Bermuda might have to pay a little more attention.
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75. CJ5
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Now they're talking about there being some concrete structure, the reporters are confused about what parts are having problems.


Based on the pictures it appears the dam is earthen like a levee but has a concrete spillway. I saw pictures where the earthen part opposite the water has several areas that have slide down. I saw no water pouring from the weakness.
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Quoting fireflymom:
Isaac has deposited a bunch of frigate
birds in Pensacola (Cuba being the nearest portion of their range). A
bunch are hanging like kites over Bayfront Parkway downtown.
Shrimpers in LA say when they see those offshore they know it's time to leave....

Birdcasting
The magnificient Frigate bird tends to spend it's life gliding on air. The only time I have seen them lite is when they are nesting. And then only the females with the males soaring on thermals over the nesting area to show their magnificence. So they got blown your way with the storm. They do steal other birds food and I know you have gulls up there so they will be fed. Probably need the winds to die down so they can meander back south. They don't do a lot of flapping.
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Quoting VAstorms:


I don't see where the NHC has declared this a tropical storm.


refresh nhc page.
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Quoting VAstorms:


I don't see where the NHC has declared this a tropical storm.
Link NHC homepage.
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Quoting VAstorms:


I don't see where the NHC has declared this a tropical storm.


OK just popped up on their site.
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looks like we have Leslie now..
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Quoting AllStar17:


Throwing out absolutes when talking about the tropics is not a good idea.

You're right, but all signs point to it staying well away from us.

Anyone heard from Pat and the NOLA gang today? Looks like they're still getting pounded down there, and now it looks like there's a couple dams in jeopardy of failing... scary situation.
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Its on their main page.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE TO
THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

THIS IS THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE 12TH NAMED STORM ON
RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...ECLIPSED ONLY BY LUIS OF 1995.


SUMMARY OF 0200 PM...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...14.3N 44.3W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


I don't see where the NHC has declared this a tropical storm.
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TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE TO
THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

THIS IS THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE 12TH NAMED STORM ON
RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...ECLIPSED ONLY BY LUIS OF 1995.


SUMMARY OF 0200 PM...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...14.3N 44.3W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Welcome Leslie!

Please send swell.

Thanks.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's a pretty good bet. Bermuda should keep an eye on it but it's not coming to the US.





Throwing out absolutes when talking about the tropics is not a good idea.
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12/5/0


...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS...
2:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 30
Location: 14.3N 44.3W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


live streaming news at WDSU

Media are not being allowed in now. Reporter is talking now from there, emergency vehicles and backhoes etc. have been moving in, says an earlier video from an affiliate (from before they kicked out the media) made it look like there is a "soft spot" in the dam, which is basically earthen, like a levee -- a chunk of erosion.

Official line out of MS is that they're going to repair or do a controlled breach away from the river and is leaving evac as voluntary, LA is doing a mandatory evac in Tangipahoa Parish within 1 mile on either side of the river.


Now they're talking about there being some concrete structure, the reporters are confused about what parts are having problems.
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Possible dam failure, 60,000 to be evacuated.Link
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Quoting AllStar17:


Far from certain.
Quoting drs2008:
Wasn't it said that Isaac would turn to the north. We don't know yet,where it will go. (remember,in-exact science.)

It's a pretty good bet. Bermuda should keep an eye on it but it's not coming to the US.



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I know many like to look at the tall clouds, but if you have an opportunity to see an even half way exposed center, follow that if you want to see the true motion.
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wxmod, can you give a source for the greenland ice dam photo?  i'm trying to google it but nobody seems to have written anything yet.

thanks
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Central Atlantic - False Color RGB Loop
check LatLon and Trop Fcst Points
TD 12 looks like she will go south of the fcst points.

Link

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Quoting HrDelta:
Any news with the dam?


live streaming news at WDSU

Media are not being allowed in now. Reporter is talking now from there, emergency vehicles and backhoes etc. have been moving in, says an earlier video from an affiliate (from before they kicked out the media) made it look like there is a "soft spot" in the dam, which is basically earthen, like a levee -- a chunk of erosion.

Official line out of MS is that they're going to repair or do a controlled breach away from the river and is leaving evac as voluntary, LA is doing a mandatory evac in Tangipahoa Parish within 1 mile on either side of the river.
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Quoting Chiggy:


and it may be the reason why it's moving WEST - pressures at the CoC may not be as low as it appears to be! Certainly a good satellite representation!


It's not moving directly west, give it + 10 degrees or so.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A monster in the making here:



I bet it peaks around 120mph or so... Luckily it will stay out to sea.
Wasn't it said that Isaac would turn to the north. We don't know yet,where it will go. (remember,in-exact science.)
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52. CJ5
Quoting sar2401:


There you go....that's why politicians are not emergency managers.


Sorry, there isn't no "there you go". This is a dam, one that has broken before. Err on the side of caution is always the best. It is not like there is much warning when a dam breaks. It sounds like the guy may have been wrong but he did the right thing.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A monster in the making here:



I bet it peaks around 120mph or so... Luckily it will stay out to sea.


Far from certain.
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somehow double posted, my apologies.
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Any news with the dam?
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Quoting fireflymom:
Isaac has deposited a bunch of frigate
birds in Pensacola (Cuba being the nearest portion of their range). A
bunch are hanging like kites over Bayfront Parkway downtown.
Shrimpers in LA say when they see those offshore they know it's time to leave....

Birdcasting


That's interesting. On the Treasure Coast, offshore fisherman move to them. They usually mean fish, and many times wahoo.
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I see the NHC agrees with me about Leslie ;) They will probably up the winds again at 5pm.
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46. 7544
td 12 ia still moving west a maybe a little ssw at this hour
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6796
000
WTNT62 KNHC 301730
TCUAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE TO
THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

THIS IS THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE 12TH NAMED STORM ON
RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...ECLIPSED ONLY BY LUIS OF 1995.


SUMMARY OF 0200 PM...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...14.3N 44.3W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

12-5-0
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A monster in the making here:



I bet it peaks around 120mph or so... Luckily it will stay out to sea.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Well yes to me, and many other people. I think many will be surprised by the next microwave pass.


and it may be the reason why it's moving WEST - pressures at the CoC may not be as low as it appears to be! Certainly a good satellite representation!
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hmmm, the lake is only 700 acres.. not a lot of volume so I don't see this as a big life taker, or, despite my intial comment, much threat to Pontchartrain.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


fixed that for ya
Well yes to me, and many other people. I think many will be surprised by the next microwave pass.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
It's incredibly obvious that this is not a tropical depression:



More like a 50-60mph TS.


Looks are deceiving,, remember Ernesto and Issac.. lol
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Quoting MTWX:


Sure hoe not!! Think the sensor on the gage may have just broke...


That's what I was thinking. With it being 90.72 ft, that is 3.5 times the major flood stage. Has to be wrong. Anyways back to lurking.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
It's incredibly obvious TO ME that this is not a tropical depression:



More like a 50-60mph TS.


fixed that for ya
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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