Isaac slamming Gulf Coast with damaging floods, tornadoes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on August 30, 2012

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Slow-moving Tropical Storm Isaac continues to hammer coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida's Panhandle with tornadoes, torrential rains, high winds, and a damaging storm surge. Over the past 24 hours, destructive tornadoes have touched down in Biloxi and Pascagoula, Mississippi, and one person was killed by a tree falling on a car in Pearl River County, Mississippi. A major flood event is occurring in Slidell, Louisiana, where Isaac's storm surge filled Bayou Bonfouca and the W-14 Canal, inundating portions of the city with 1 - 5 feet of water. While Isaac is now a weakening minimal-strength tropical storm, it is still a potent rainmaker, and will cause damaging floods all along its path for the next three days. Major river flooding is occurring or is about to occur on a number of rivers in the landfall area. In north central Tangipahoa Parish in southeast Louisiana and southwestern Pike County in southern Mississippi, a mandatory evacuation has been ordered for all low-lying areas and along the Tangipahoa River, due to the potential failure of the Lake Tangipahoa dam. Audubon Park in New Orleans, recorded 11.19" of rain as of 7 pm Wednesday night. An earlier amount of 19" was found to be erroneous, and this is not a 24-hour precipitation record for the city. According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, New Orleans' greatest 24-hour rainfall on record is 14.01" on July 24 - 25, 1933. The Louisiana official state 24-hour record is 22.00" on Aug. 29, 1962 at Hakberry, although U.S. Army Corps of Engineers `Storm Studies' mentions a 23.80" falling in a 24-hour period at Millers Island during a TS on Aug 7-8, 1940. Storm total was 37.50" over a 60-hour period there during that event.

A few other rainfall totals from Isaac, through 11 am EDT on Thursday:

15.02" Marion, MS
10.09" Hattiesburg, MS
10.15" Gulfport, MS
9.80" Slidell, LA
9.74" Biloxi, MS
8.52" Mobile, AL
5.57" Baton Rouge, LA


Figure 1. Isaac's winds and storm surge overcomes the seawall and floods South Beach Boulevard in Waveland, Miss., Wednesday, Aug. 29, 2012, the seventh anniversary of Hurricane Katrina hitting the Gulf Coast. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis). Waveland experienced a storm surge in excess of 5' for 36 hours.

Isaac's storm surge winds down
Storm surge levels along the coast of Mississippi and surrounding areas are gradually receding, and the surge has finally fallen below 5' at Waveland, which experienced a storm surge in excess of 5' for 36 hours. Isaac's storm surge levels were characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane, and lasted for an exceptionally long period of time. Waveland, Mississippi experienced a peak surge of 8' and peak storm tide of 9' (surge plus the natural high tide), which beat the levels that occurred during Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008 (7' of storm tide.) The peak 11.06' storm surge at Shell Beach, which is in Lake Borgne, 30 miles southeast of New Orleans, exceeded the 9.5' surge recorded there during Gustav. According to an article in nola.com, Isaac pushed a storm surge of 13.6' into Lake Borgne, on the east side of New Orleans. This is not far from the 15.5' storm surge Hurricane Katrina brought to the location. It is quite possible that Isaac's storm surge might have breached levees of the east side of New Orleans, flooding areas inhabited by tens of thousands of people, had the Army Corps of Engineers not completed their $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans flood defenses this year. I estimate that storm surge damage from Isaac will exceed $2 billion. Isaac has likely caused $2.5 billion in insured damage not related to flooding, insurance firm Eqecat estimated yesterday. Here were some of the peak storm surge values that were recorded at NOAA tide gauges during Isaac:

11.1' Shell Beach, LA
8.0' Waveland, MS
3.5' Pensacola, FL
4.6' Pascagoula, MS
3.8' Mobile, AL


Figure 2. A TRMM satellite 3-D view of rainfall on Aug. 28 showed a few very powerful thunderstorms near Isaac's eye were reaching heights of almost 17 km (10.6 miles.) Intense bands of rain around Isaac were occasionally dropping rain at a rate of over 2.75 inches per hour. Image credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierce.

Isaac's storm surge on the Mississippi River
A storm surge estimated at 12' moved up the Mississippi in Plaquemines Parish near Port Sulphur, LA, near 8:30 pm EDT Tuesday, causing overtopping of the levees and flooding of homes in the mandatory evacuation areas behind the levees. These levees were not part of the $14.5 billion levee upgrade New Orleans got after Hurricane Katrina, and were not rated to Category 3 hurricane strength, like the levees protecting New Orleans are. Since salt water is more dense than fresh water, the surge travelled along the bottom of the river, with the fresh water flow of the river lying on top. The surge continued upriver, and before reaching New Orleans, encountered an underwater barrier in Plaquemines Parish. This barrier was constructed by the Army Corps of Engineers beginning on August 15, in order to keep salt water from moving upstream and contaminating drinking water for Plaquemines Parish and New Orleans. Salt water had made it 90 miles upriver to the outskirts of New Orleans, due to the low flow rate of the river (which had dropped 7' below average in height due to the drought of 2012.) According to a spokesperson for the National Weather Service River Forecast Office, this barrier was probably able to completely block the flow of salt water upriver due to Isaac's storm surge, and no salt water made it as far as New Orleans. However, the massive intrusion of ocean water into the river channel caused the mighty Mississippi's fresh water flow to back up for hundreds of miles. Water levels were elevated by 10' in New Orleans (103 miles upstream from the mouth of the Mississippi), 8' in Baton Rouge (228 miles upstream), and 1.4' at Knox Landing, an amazing 314 miles upstream.

Hurricane Kirk in the Central Atlantic
Hurricane Kirk intensified into a 75 mph Category 1 hurricane this morning, becoming the busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season's fifth hurricane. With the season's mid-point of September 10 still almost 2 weeks away, we've already had 12 named storms and 5 hurricanes, which is close to what an entire season experiences in an average year (11 named storms and 6 hurricanes.) Kirk should stay well out to sea and not trouble any land areas.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Kirk.

Tropical Storm Leslie forms in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Leslie has formed in the Central Atlantic. Leslie's formation on August 30 puts 2012 in 2nd place for earliest formation date of the season's 12th storm. Only 1995 had an earlier formation date of the season's 12th storm. With records dating back to 1851, this year is only the second time 8 total storms have formed in August. The other year was 2004, when the first storm of the season formed on August 1 (Alex), and the 8th storm (Hermine)
formed on August 29th. Leslie is organizing quickly, and appears destined to become a hurricane before the week is out. Fortunately, Hurricane Kirk is weakening the ridge of high pressure to the north of Leslie, and Leslie is expected to turn to the northwest and miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. In the long term, it remains unclear if Leslie will follow Kirk and fully recurve out to sea. The latest 2 runs of the GFS model have predicted that Leslie will recurve out to sea and not threaten any land areas, but the latest 2 runs of the ECMWF model have predicted that the trough of low pressure pulling Kirk to the northeast will not be strong enough to recurve Leslie out to sea. Instead, the ECMWF predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in early next week, forcing Leslie more to the northwest, making the storm a potential threat to Bermuda, then to the Northeast U.S. and Canada in 8 - 11 days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Isaac Louisiana (apphotos)
Two men walk in the storm surge from Isaac, on Lakeshore Drive along Lake Pontchartrain, as the storm approaches landfall, in New Orleans, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana
west palm beach flood isaac (alishu)
West Palm Beach flood from Isaac
west palm beach flood isaac
Hurricane Isaac Impacts Navarre Beach & Pier10 (jennjeff1)
Hurricane Isaac versus Navarre Beach Pier, the longest concrete pier on the Gulf of Mexico
Hurricane Isaac Impacts Navarre Beach & Pier10

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1487. sar2401
Quoting Skyepony:
Model verification on Isaac~ not the easiest storm with the best 24hr averages being in the 40nm range.. Best models began with the letter G & T (been the trend this season). Fim models did good. APS models outshined them all out to 48hrs, but I expect partly because they didn't run it earlier in the storm when Isaac wasn't as well developed. Overall OFCL was right up there with the best models.


Looks like HWRF did a pretty good job with track overall. All the models that ran at five days ranged for bad (180-250 miles) to horrible (500-650 miles). Yet we still seem to think that models going out 10 to 15 days have any valididty.
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Quoting luvtogolf:
Looks like Leslie is going to get trapped. Now it depends on how strong the ridge builds in. Could come due west (Jeanne, Andrew) or further north Igor, Earl. Anywhere from Fl to Canada needs to keep and watchful eye.
That will get the blog hoppin.
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1485. ncstorm
Quoting TomballTXPride:
You thinking possibly Irene, NCStorm?


If I had to pick a storm today based on the latest operational runs of the GFS and Euro,it would be an earl type situation..however, NC was on early model runs for Isaac as well as Bermuda and well that ended up in the GOM..I dont trust the models this far out yet..
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1484. Wiebel


Why don't they include the depth near the dart buoy in the graph? Just a height doesn't say a single thing, unless its extremely deep...
Member Since: August 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
Quoting dartboardmodel:
So when do you think they should/could issue watches for the northern islands??? I'm thinking Saturday morning. Just a hunch because I think the models are off.


The current steering levels (and forecast track) keep Leslie well north of the islands. I would not expect any watches at this time.
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1482. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:
GFS at 240 hours..didnt some guy ask about a hurricane in NYC? just a few days ago?


GFS probabilities at 10 days = about the chance of flipping heads 10 times in a row. Is there some reason why we all seem to like torturing ourselves with models like this?
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1481. Skyepony (Mod)
Model verification on Isaac~ not the easiest storm with the best 24hr averages being in the 40nm range.. Best models began with the letter G & T (been the trend this season). Fim models did good. APS models outshined them all out to 48hrs, but I expect partly because they didn't run it earlier in the storm when Isaac wasn't as well developed. Overall OFCL was right up there with the best models.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37793
Looks like Leslie is going to get trapped. Now it depends on how strong the ridge builds in. Could come due west (Jeanne, Andrew) or further north Igor, Earl. Anywhere from Fl to Canada needs to keep and watchful eye.
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So when do you think they should/could issue watches for the northern islands??? I'm thinking Saturday morning. Just a hunch because I think the models are off.
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1477. lavinia
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Or could be Igor 2010. Earl or Igor.


I don't think the east coast provinces in Canada want another Earl or Igor. Both did damage.
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TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 004
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1454Z 31 AUG 2012

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

ADDITIONAL SEA LEVEL READINGS INCLUDED. WARNING IS CANCELLED.

... TSUNAMI WARNING CANCELLATION ...

THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND/OR WATCH ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER IS NOW CANCELLED FOR

INDONESIA / PHILIPPINES / BELAU

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1248Z 31 AUG 2012
COORDINATES - 10.9 NORTH 127.1 EAST
DEPTH - 33 KM
LOCATION - PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
MAGNITUDE - 7.6

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
MALAKAL KOROR PW 7.3N 134.5E 1447Z 0.01M / 0.0FT 10MIN
DART 52404 20.9N 132.3E 1418Z 0.01M / 0.0FT 10MIN
DAVAO PH 7.1N 125.6E 1350Z 0.03M / 0.1FT 32MIN
DART 52405 12.9N 132.3E 1333Z 0.03M / 0.1FT 10MIN
LEGASPI PH 13.1N 123.8E 1343Z 0.03M / 0.1FT 14MIN

LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.
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Darn another Pacific earthquake
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Quoting ncstorm:



That would be an extremely scary scenario for New England should that verify. Definitely something to keep an eye on.
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Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Bulletin #3 confirms tsunami was generated.

000
WEPA40 PHEB 311425
TSUPAC

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 003
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1425Z 31 AUG 2012

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS NOW INCLUDED. CONTINUING TO MONITOR.

... A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

INDONESIA / PHILIPPINES / BELAU

FOR ALL OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS BULLETIN... IT IS FOR
INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1248Z 31 AUG 2012
COORDINATES - 10.9 NORTH 127.1 EAST
DEPTH - 33 KM
LOCATION - PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
MAGNITUDE - 7.6

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
DART 52405 12.9N 132.3E 1333Z 0.03M / 0.1FT 10MIN
LEGASPI PH 13.1N 123.8E 1343Z 0.03M / 0.1FT 14MIN

LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

SEA LEVEL READINGS CONFIRM THAT A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. THIS
TSUNAMI MAY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTLINES OF THE REGION
NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER.
AUTHORITIES IN THE REGION SHOULD
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL GAUGES NEAREST THE
REGION AND REPORT IF ANY ADDITIONAL TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY. THE
WARNING WILL NOT EXPAND TO OTHER AREAS OF THE PACIFIC UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED TO WARRANT SUCH AN EXPANSION.

FOR AFFECTED AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO
HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE
NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN
ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL
STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS.
AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE
ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL
AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
INDONESIA GEME 4.6N 126.8E 1335Z 31 AUG
BEREBERE 2.5N 128.7E 1353Z 31 AUG
PATANI 0.4N 128.8E 1419Z 31 AUG
PHILIPPINES LEGASPI 13.2N 123.8E 1338Z 31 AUG
DAVAO 6.8N 125.7E 1340Z 31 AUG
PALANAN 17.1N 122.6E 1353Z 31 AUG
BELAU MALAKAL 7.3N 134.5E 1407Z 31 AUG

BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ALSO ISSUE TSUNAMI MESSAGES
FOR THIS EVENT TO COUNTRIES IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND SOUTH
CHINA SEA REGION. IN CASE OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION... THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE INFORMATION SHOULD BE USED FOR SAFETY.

THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn. ht ml



Looks direct west right along the 15N IMO.Link


too mee it looks like nhc nailed the track
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I would think this is due to the deeper depth of the quake, shallow ones with a vertical displacement make the big bad waves.
Quoting AussieStorm:
PHIVOLCS Dir. Solidum says waves recorded were 16cm (6 inches). More waves could come.

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1467. JasonRE
Amazing. When Isaac was in full swing, this blog would have been up to page 90 already.
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Quoting Brock31:


Holy Moley!!

That setup would be a monster swell generator


I AM STOKED ---- PR to receive swell from sunday to week auuuuushhh
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1465. ncstorm


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PHIVOLCS Dir. Solidum says waves recorded were 16cm (6 inches). More waves could come.
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1463. LargoFl
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PHIVOLCS says 1st tsunami wave was expected to hit Eastern Samar at 9:32pm, but no waves recorded so far.


Very good news.
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Quoting MahFL:


The building codes on Bermuda are probably the strongest in the world. A cat 3 would not be too much of a problem.

Hurricane Fabian would disagree
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Quoting fireflymom:
Phillipines 5.5 aftershock

also 2 5.4's

USGS has it at 7.6 depth 34km's
Philvolics has it at 7.7 and depth of 10km.
Who's correct???
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1459. LargoFl
Quoting jerseybreakfast:
Long time lurker here. Even though I live all the way up in NJ, I always get a little nervous this time of year. It's so rare that we get big impacts from tropical systems here, but Irene was the first storm that really, really scared me. Fortunately my home was OK, but we didn't have power or drinkable water for a week. If I hadn't paid such close attention to this blog, I would have missed out on a lot of valuable insights on what to stock up on, when to stock up on it, etc. Let's hope Leslie stays far out to sea.

My heart goes out to the people who are currently mopping up after Isaac.

glad your watching, stay safe up there
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PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 50.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 50.9W
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Quoting MahFL:


The building codes on Bermuda are probably the strongest in the world. A cat 3 would not be too much of a problem.

Building codes for new building in Bermuda are rated for 150mph. My wife's niece used to live there, she went through Igor in 2010.
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Phillipines 5.5 aftershock
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SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 49.1W
ABOUT 845 MI...1355 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
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1453. MahFL
Quoting stormchaser19:
Leslie wants wipe out Bermuda from the map


The building codes on Bermuda are probably the strongest in the world. A cat 3 would not be too much of a problem.
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1452. LargoFl
GFS at 81 hours..................................
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1451. Brock31
Quoting stormchaser19:
Leslie wants wipe out Bermuda from the map


Holy Moley!!

That setup would be a monster swell generator
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Good morning everyone, Kirk is doing an EWRC and Leslie still strengthening. Is anyone having problems with the NHC website?
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1449. LargoFl
Quoting AussieStorm:
7.9 quake hits east of PH

MANILA (3rd UPDATE) - A major 7.9 earthquake hit the sea area east of the Philippines on Friday and a tsunami warning was issued for the archipelago, Indonesia, Taiwan and Japan, US seismologists said.

The US Geological Survey said the quake had a depth of 34 kilometres (21 miles) and hit at 8:47 pm (1247 GMT) some 139 kilometres east of the city of Sulangan, eastern Samar.

A tsunami warning was also issued for Papua New Guinea and Guam, and a tsunami watch was in effect for the Solomon Islands, Marshall Islands and Nauru, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said in a bulletin.

The warning center said any wave generated by the quake would be expected to hit Indonesia first, at 1335 GMT.

It would then be due to hit the Philippines at 1338 GMT or 9:38 p.m. local time.


"An earthquake of this size has the potential to generate a destructive tsunami that can strike coastlines in the region near the epicentre within minutes to hours," the center said.

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) said it was a magnitude 7.7 earthquake.

Phivolcs said the earthquake%u2019s epicenter was recorded at the Philippine trench, between Samar Island and Mindanao at 8:47 p.m.

Authorities said Intensity 6 was felt in Ormoc and Sorsogon.

Tsunami alert

Phivolcs specialist Jane Punongbayan said residents in the coastal areas of northern Samar, eastern Samar, Leyte, southern Leyte, Surigao del Sur and Surigao del Sur are advised to evacuate their homes due to tsunami alert warning number 3.

Punongbayan said Philvolcs is monitoring a possible tsunami and that the warning will be remain for 2 hours after the earthquake

%u201CWe will watch until 10:47, if not please tsunami, we bring a little 'those alerts. But as of now to be safe, we raised that those who alert level 3,%u201D she said.

She also advised residents not to panic, but to swiftly move to higher ground at least 10 meters above sea level.

Those in coastal areas in N.Samar, E.Samar, Leyte, S. Leyte, Surigao del Norte & Sur must evacuate asap
big quake for sure
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7.9 quake hits east of PH

MANILA (3rd UPDATE) - A major 7.9 earthquake hit the sea area east of the Philippines on Friday and a tsunami warning was issued for the archipelago, Indonesia, Taiwan and Japan, US seismologists said.

The US Geological Survey said the quake had a depth of 34 kilometres (21 miles) and hit at 8:47 pm (1247 GMT) some 139 kilometres east of the city of Sulangan, eastern Samar.

A tsunami warning was also issued for Papua New Guinea and Guam, and a tsunami watch was in effect for the Solomon Islands, Marshall Islands and Nauru, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said in a bulletin.

The warning center said any wave generated by the quake would be expected to hit Indonesia first, at 1335 GMT.

It would then be due to hit the Philippines at 1338 GMT or 9:38 p.m. local time.


"An earthquake of this size has the potential to generate a destructive tsunami that can strike coastlines in the region near the epicentre within minutes to hours," the center said.

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) said it was a magnitude 7.7 earthquake.

Phivolcs said the earthquakes epicenter was recorded at the Philippine trench, between Samar Island and Mindanao at 8:47 p.m.

Authorities said Intensity 6 was felt in Ormoc and Sorsogon.

Tsunami alert

Phivolcs specialist Jane Punongbayan said residents in the coastal areas of northern Samar, eastern Samar, Leyte, southern Leyte, Surigao del Sur and Surigao del Sur are advised to evacuate their homes due to tsunami alert warning number 3.

Punongbayan said Philvolcs is monitoring a possible tsunami and that the warning will be remain for 2 hours after the earthquake

We will watch until 10:47, if not please tsunami, we bring a little 'those alerts. But as of now to be safe, we raised that those who alert level 3, she said.

She also advised residents not to panic, but to swiftly move to higher ground at least 10 meters above sea level.

Those in coastal areas in N.Samar, E.Samar, Leyte, S. Leyte, Surigao del Norte & Sur must evacuate asap

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Long time lurker here. Even though I live all the way up in NJ, I always get a little nervous this time of year. It's so rare that we get big impacts from tropical systems here, but Irene was the first storm that really, really scared me. Fortunately my home was OK, but we didn't have power or drinkable water for a week. If I hadn't paid such close attention to this blog, I would have missed out on a lot of valuable insights on what to stock up on, when to stock up on it, etc. Let's hope Leslie stays far out to sea.

My heart goes out to the people who are currently mopping up after Isaac.

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1446. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
..IF..she goes into the islands we got trouble i think
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1445. LargoFl
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.ht ml



Looks direct west right along the 15N IMO.Link
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8322
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Leslie currently strongly resembles Earl 2010 in a way. Loved Earl. Fun to track and stayed offshore.

Looks like another Earl, Folks. This is great news for the inland of Bermuda and the CONUS.


Earl hit us pretty hard...
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1441. LargoFl
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1440. LargoFl
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY...

* COASTAL FLOODING...COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO STORM SURGE WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. WHILE WATERS
HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE STILL BEING
EXPERIENCED IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SHORES THE
TIDAL LAKES.

* TIMING...COASTAL FLOODING IS ONGOING. WATERS WILL RECEDE TODAY.
WATER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE TIDAL LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

* IMPACTS...LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE GULF COAST AND THE SHORES
OF LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE FLOODING. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN ON THE
GULF COAST TONIGHT AS THE WATER SLOWLY RECEDES.

HOMES NEAR LAKE DES ALLEMANDS MAY BECOME ISOLATED DUE TO HIGH
WATER...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MAGNOLIA RIDGE ROAD AREA.

LOW LYING AREAS AROUND SLIDELL...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR BAYOU
BONFOUCA AND BAYOU LIBERTY...WILL CONTINUE TO BE INUNDATED
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS NOTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ALONG THE SHORES OF THE TIDAL LAKES WATERS WILL RECEDE MORE
SLOWLY AND IMPACTS WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND. WATER
LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE DAILY WITH THE TIDE CYCLE AND ALSO DUE TO
HIGH RUNOFF FROM AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
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Leslie wants wipe out Bermuda from the map
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1438. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
851 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
EASTERN OUACHITA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN BRADLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
SOUTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT 849 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CRANE LAKE TO 2 MILES EAST OF CALION. DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE
WARNED AREA IN THE PAST 2 HOURS. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE 2 TO 4
INCHES SEEN ON THURSDAY. WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED...
FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. WHILE PRECIPITATION MAY TAPER
OFF IN SOME AREAS DURING THE WARNING PERIOD...IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR ANY HIGH WATER TO RUNOFF.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HAMPTON... FORDYCE... WEEKS...
TRI COUNTY LAKE... TIPTON... THORNTON...
MILLERS BLUFF... LANARK... HEBRON...
HARRELL... HARLOW... HAMPTON MUNI ARPT...
GRAPEVINE LAKE... ELLISVILLE... CRANE LAKE...
BEARDEN... WOODBERRY... TINSMAN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN
AROUND... DONT DROWN!

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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