Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Isaac slamming Gulf Coast with damaging floods, tornadoes

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:44 PM GMT on August 30, 2012

+46

Slow-moving Tropical Storm Isaac continues to hammer coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida's Panhandle with tornadoes, torrential rains, high winds, and a damaging storm surge. Over the past 24 hours, destructive tornadoes have touched down in Biloxi and Pascagoula, Mississippi, and one person was killed by a tree falling on a car in Pearl River County, Mississippi. A major flood event is occurring in Slidell, Louisiana, where Isaac's storm surge filled Bayou Bonfouca and the W-14 Canal, inundating portions of the city with 1 - 5 feet of water. While Isaac is now a weakening minimal-strength tropical storm, it is still a potent rainmaker, and will cause damaging floods all along its path for the next three days. Major river flooding is occurring or is about to occur on a number of rivers in the landfall area. In north central Tangipahoa Parish in southeast Louisiana and southwestern Pike County in southern Mississippi, a mandatory evacuation has been ordered for all low-lying areas and along the Tangipahoa River, due to the potential failure of the Lake Tangipahoa dam. Audubon Park in New Orleans, recorded 11.19" of rain as of 7 pm Wednesday night. An earlier amount of 19" was found to be erroneous, and this is not a 24-hour precipitation record for the city. According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, New Orleans' greatest 24-hour rainfall on record is 14.01" on July 24 - 25, 1933. The Louisiana official state 24-hour record is 22.00" on Aug. 29, 1962 at Hakberry, although U.S. Army Corps of Engineers `Storm Studies' mentions a 23.80" falling in a 24-hour period at Millers Island during a TS on Aug 7-8, 1940. Storm total was 37.50" over a 60-hour period there during that event.

A few other rainfall totals from Isaac, through 11 am EDT on Thursday:

15.02" Marion, MS
10.09" Hattiesburg, MS
10.15" Gulfport, MS
9.80" Slidell, LA
9.74" Biloxi, MS
8.52" Mobile, AL
5.57" Baton Rouge, LA

Figure 1. Isaac's winds and storm surge overcomes the seawall and floods South Beach Boulevard in Waveland, Miss., Wednesday, Aug. 29, 2012, the seventh anniversary of Hurricane Katrina hitting the Gulf Coast. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis). Waveland experienced a storm surge in excess of 5' for 36 hours.

Isaac's storm surge winds down
Storm surge levels along the coast of Mississippi and surrounding areas are gradually receding, and the surge has finally fallen below 5' at Waveland, which experienced a storm surge in excess of 5' for 36 hours. Isaac's storm surge levels were characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane, and lasted for an exceptionally long period of time. Waveland, Mississippi experienced a peak surge of 8' and peak storm tide of 9' (surge plus the natural high tide), which beat the levels that occurred during Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008 (7' of storm tide.) The peak 11.06' storm surge at Shell Beach, which is in Lake Borgne, 30 miles southeast of New Orleans, exceeded the 9.5' surge recorded there during Gustav. According to an article in nola.com, Isaac pushed a storm surge of 13.6' into Lake Borgne, on the east side of New Orleans. This is not far from the 15.5' storm surge Hurricane Katrina brought to the location. It is quite possible that Isaac's storm surge might have breached levees of the east side of New Orleans, flooding areas inhabited by tens of thousands of people, had the Army Corps of Engineers not completed their $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans flood defenses this year. I estimate that storm surge damage from Isaac will exceed $2 billion. Isaac has likely caused $2.5 billion in insured damage not related to flooding, insurance firm Eqecat estimated yesterday. Here were some of the peak storm surge values that were recorded at NOAA tide gauges during Isaac:

11.1' Shell Beach, LA
8.0' Waveland, MS
3.5' Pensacola, FL
4.6' Pascagoula, MS
3.8' Mobile, AL

Figure 2. A TRMM satellite 3-D view of rainfall on Aug. 28 showed a few very powerful thunderstorms near Isaac's eye were reaching heights of almost 17 km (10.6 miles.) Intense bands of rain around Isaac were occasionally dropping rain at a rate of over 2.75 inches per hour. Image credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierce.

Isaac's storm surge on the Mississippi River
A storm surge estimated at 12' moved up the Mississippi in Plaquemines Parish near Port Sulphur, LA, near 8:30 pm EDT Tuesday, causing overtopping of the levees and flooding of homes in the mandatory evacuation areas behind the levees. These levees were not part of the $14.5 billion levee upgrade New Orleans got after Hurricane Katrina, and were not rated to Category 3 hurricane strength, like the levees protecting New Orleans are. Since salt water is more dense than fresh water, the surge travelled along the bottom of the river, with the fresh water flow of the river lying on top. The surge continued upriver, and before reaching New Orleans, encountered an underwater barrier in Plaquemines Parish. This barrier was constructed by the Army Corps of Engineers beginning on August 15, in order to keep salt water from moving upstream and contaminating drinking water for Plaquemines Parish and New Orleans. Salt water had made it 90 miles upriver to the outskirts of New Orleans, due to the low flow rate of the river (which had dropped 7' below average in height due to the drought of 2012.) According to a spokesperson for the National Weather Service River Forecast Office, this barrier was probably able to completely block the flow of salt water upriver due to Isaac's storm surge, and no salt water made it as far as New Orleans. However, the massive intrusion of ocean water into the river channel caused the mighty Mississippi's fresh water flow to back up for hundreds of miles. Water levels were elevated by 10' in New Orleans (103 miles upstream from the mouth of the Mississippi), 8' in Baton Rouge (228 miles upstream), and 1.4' at Knox Landing, an amazing 314 miles upstream.

Hurricane Kirk in the Central Atlantic
Hurricane Kirk intensified into a 75 mph Category 1 hurricane this morning, becoming the busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season's fifth hurricane. With the season's mid-point of September 10 still almost 2 weeks away, we've already had 12 named storms and 5 hurricanes, which is close to what an entire season experiences in an average year (11 named storms and 6 hurricanes.) Kirk should stay well out to sea and not trouble any land areas.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Kirk.

Tropical Storm Leslie forms in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Leslie has formed in the Central Atlantic. Leslie's formation on August 30 puts 2012 in 2nd place for earliest formation date of the season's 12th storm. Only 1995 had an earlier formation date of the season's 12th storm. With records dating back to 1851, this year is only the second time 8 total storms have formed in August. The other year was 2004, when the first storm of the season formed on August 1 (Alex), and the 8th storm (Hermine)
formed on August 29th. Leslie is organizing quickly, and appears destined to become a hurricane before the week is out. Fortunately, Hurricane Kirk is weakening the ridge of high pressure to the north of Leslie, and Leslie is expected to turn to the northwest and miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. In the long term, it remains unclear if Leslie will follow Kirk and fully recurve out to sea. The latest 2 runs of the GFS model have predicted that Leslie will recurve out to sea and not threaten any land areas, but the latest 2 runs of the ECMWF model have predicted that the trough of low pressure pulling Kirk to the northeast will not be strong enough to recurve Leslie out to sea. Instead, the ECMWF predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in early next week, forcing Leslie more to the northwest, making the storm a potential threat to Bermuda, then to the Northeast U.S. and Canada in 8 - 11 days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Isaac Louisiana (apphotos)

Two men walk in the storm surge from Isaac, on Lakeshore Drive along Lake Pontchartrain, as the storm approaches landfall, in New Orleans, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

west palm beach flood isaac (alishu)

West Palm Beach flood from Isaac

Hurricane Isaac Impacts Navarre Beach & Pier10 (jennjeff1)

Hurricane Isaac versus Navarre Beach Pier, the longest concrete pier on the Gulf of Mexico

Categories: Hurricane

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1251. gordydunnot 10:31 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Atmosweather that's my thinking also, you can definitely see two circulation on this storm also,I think the stronger one is to the south. But even the northern one appears to be somewhat farther south than forecast points.The system is also moving faster than they have forecast IMO. Well we will find out later today for sure, I have found it is hard to argue with the 3 day track.Looking at the surface analysis map that moonlightcowboy put up the other day it appears the high to the north of the storm is moving just as fast west as the storm, think it's going to be a close call. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

1252. ShadyGroveFarm 10:34 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting SherwoodSpirit: Isaac is beginning to show up in the far southern edge of my local radar (St. Louis) and I want to feel gleeful at the prospect of REAL rain for the first time since April... but I feel horribly guilty because of the cost paid by the Gulf Coast in order for us to have our dreadful drought finally end. Dear, that's thoughtful, but don't feel guilty. You did not cause the storm, which brings good to many, harm to many. Accept your blessings and pray for their losses...or donate... whatever your beliefs! Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 7

1253. wunderkidcayman 10:37 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm: I was going to ask if Leslie had moved north but looking at these numbers I can say no... 20120831 0545 14.5 47.6 T3.5/3.5 12L LESLIE 20120830 2345 14.5 45.7 T3.0/3.0 12L LESLIE Looking good also. Best looking system that's been through this area all season. Kirk is looking more cyclical now. PINHOLE EYE!!!! lol Isaac still popping convection in his outer bands circulation well atleast something agrees with me 20120831 0545 14.5 47.6 T3.5/3.5 12L LESLIE 20120830 2345 14.5 45.7 T3.0/3.0 12L LESLIE hey Aussie can you post the link to those postions please thanks Kirk I think we for sure be our first Major of the season Isaac just don't know when to stop I have a feeling he may pull an Ivan trick Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5453

1254. AussieStorm 10:38 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman: I strongly think that the LLCOC is now near 14.5N 48.4W and I strongly suggest NHC gets HH out there flying into the storm either later this evening tonight or tomorrow early morning NOAA Doesn't think a HH should be sent. Nothing on the cards yet. Maybe it's to far for them to worry about. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13355

1255. wunderkidcayman 10:39 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting K8eCane: wunderkid do you think thats necessary this soon? I have no idea what in the world you are talking about really I don't Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5453

1256. AussieStorm 10:41 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman: well atleast something agrees with me 20120831 0545 14.5 47.6 T3.5/3.5 12L LESLIE 20120830 2345 14.5 45.7 T3.0/3.0 12L LESLIE hey Aussie can you post the link to those postions please thanks Kirk I think we for sure be our first Major of the season Isaac just don't know when to stop I have a feeling he may pull an Ivan trick Link Kirk has a chance since he's so small. one of the models had Isaac going back out to see and building again in the warm current off the east coast. He won't be dead until he's embedded in a low near Greenland. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13355

1257. gordydunnot 10:44 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
CaneGurl I feel sad for all the people that are experiencing the losses associated with this storm. I think you are right in your statement that a lot of people want to come out and criticize the victims, makes me think the are trying to shed guilt because they are not going to do a thing to help.Lastly if your area has never been affected by one of these storms, you don't realize the long term devastating impacts these storms have, or you hate where you live and want to move anyways. Rant over, going to check back on Leslie later. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

1258. wunderkidcayman 10:44 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm: NOAA Doesn't think a HH should be sent. Nothing on the cards yet. Maybe it's to far for them to worry about. HH fly zone starts at 52W/53W I think they may have one set on the next flight plan we have to wait for new plan to come out around 9/10am later this morning. Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5453

1259. mikatnight 10:45 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
KIRK Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1973

1260. Doppler22 10:49 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
I think kirk was already a major... Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 1247

1261. wunderkidcayman 10:51 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm: Link Kirk has a chance since he's so small. one of the models had Isaac going back out to see and building again in the warm current off the east coast. He won't be dead until he's embedded in a low near Greenland. thanks yep thats one that I also forgot Kirk is small lol we let hope it can do no more damages I know what it is like to get hit by multiple hurricanes and diffrent Cats and being in an area that is below sea level did you know that Grand Cayman is mostly under Sea level Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5453

1262. GTcooliebai 10:51 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Good morning...I see Kirk continues to strengthen and Leslie is becoming more and more a threat to the Northeast US. C'mon Kirk just 10 more mph until the 1st major of the season you can do it. Kirk: Leslie: Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5191

1263. K8eCane 10:51 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman: HH fly zone starts at 52W/53W I think they may have one set on the next flight plan we have to wait for new plan to come out around 9/10am later this morning. well that makes sense in a weird sort of way. anyway they wont send a plane this soon. no plane this soon to investigate leslie Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2375

1264. GTcooliebai 10:59 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
06z GFS: Global Models (Statistical & Dynamical) Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5191

1265. LargoFl 11:00 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
GFS at 144 hours,could be something to watch huh........ Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

1266. AussieStorm 11:01 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
14.1N 43.4W 14.4N 45.3W Movement N x 0.3N NHC says Movement is W?? not WNW. 14.7N 46.8W Movement N x 0.3N, again NHC says movement is W?? not WNW. Movement N x 0.5N NHC says movement is WNW. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13355

1267. wunderkidcayman 11:04 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting K8eCane: well that makes sense in a weird sort of way. anyway they wont send a plane this soon. no plane this soon to investigate leslie maybe, maybe not we just have to wait and see. Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5453

1268. LargoFl 11:04 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
we all must thank that bermuda high and the changed conditions..because all the good models had Kirk AND leslie, hitting the same area's near or IN..the same area's as Isaac, one after another..what a diseaster That would have been, probably nothing left standing Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

1269. islander101010 11:05 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
leslie=surfer.storm=thats.good Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2968

1270. LargoFl 11:07 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

1271. wunderkidcayman 11:09 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm: 14.1N 43.4W 14.4N 45.3W Movement N x 0.3N NHC says Movement is W?? not WNW. 14.7N 46.8W Movement N x 0.3N, again NHC says movement is W?? not WNW. Movement N x 0.5N NHC says movement is WNW. right and if H fly and find the LLCOC further S and W I wounder what NHC will say then but I still say it at 14.4N 48.4W Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5453

1272. LargoFl 11:09 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

1273. AussieStorm 11:11 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting LargoFl: we all must thank that bermuda high and the changed conditions..because all the good models had Kirk AND leslie, hitting the same area's near or IN..the same area's as Isaac, one after another..what a diseaster That would have been, probably nothing left standing When were the models were predicting that? Anyone remember the CFS model I posted last week. CFS is the very long range. had 4 systems in 1092hrs. This is what it's predicting now.... 648hrs... 744hrs... 840hrs... 972hrs... Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13355

1274. LargoFl 11:11 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

1275. LargoFl 11:12 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm: When were the models were predicting that? Anyone remember the CFS model I posted last week. CFS is the very long range. had 4 systems in 1092hrs. This is what it's predicting now.... 648hrs... 744hrs... 840hrs... 972hrs... when isaac was still by florida Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

1276. GTcooliebai 11:12 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
HWRF on Leslie calling for about 962 mb. 100 mph Cat 2 Hurricane: GFDL about 959 mb. 95 mph Cat. 1 Hurricane: Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5191

1277. LargoFl 11:14 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

1278. stormwatcherCI 11:16 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman: well atleast something agrees with me 20120831 0545 14.5 47.6 T3.5/3.5 12L LESLIE 20120830 2345 14.5 45.7 T3.0/3.0 12L LESLIE hey Aussie can you post the link to those postions please thanks Kirk I think we for sure be our first Major of the season Isaac just don't know when to stop I have a feeling he may pull an Ivan trick Good morning. You do realize that the latest position there was from 5 1/2 hours ago, right ? Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

1279. AussieStorm 11:16 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman: right and if H fly and find the LLCOC further S and W I wounder what NHC will say then but I still say it at 14.4N 48.4W These 2 don't compute.... both from NOAA 2012-08-31 0545Z 14.5N 47.6W 12L LESLIE SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 47.8W How many hours apart are these 2 observations??? Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13355

1280. LargoFl 11:16 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SOME LINGERING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR TANGIPAHOA PARISH LOUISIANA AND PIKE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI FOR THE POTENTIAL FAILURE OF THE LAKE TANGIPAHOA DAM...ALSO KNOWN AS THE PERCY QUIN DAM IN PIKE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF COASTAL LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI THROUGH NOON TODAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH HEAT INDICES RISING TO 100 TO 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN SOME LOCATIONS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

1281. stormwatcherCI 11:17 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman: right and if H fly and find the LLCOC further S and W I wounder what NHC will say then but I still say it at 14.4N 48.4W What makes you think it is further south ? Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

1282. stormwatcherCI 11:19 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm: These 2 don't compute.... both from NOAA 2012-08-31 0545Z 14.5N 47.6W 12L LESLIE SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 47.8W How many hours apart are these 2 observations??? 0545Z would have been around 1:45 am EDT so around 3 hours or so difference. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

1283. wunderkidcayman 11:22 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Good morning. You do realize that the latest position there was from 5 1/2 hours ago, right ? Quoting AussieStorm: These 2 don't compute.... both from NOAA 2012-08-31 0545Z 14.5N 47.6W 12L LESLIE SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 47.8W How many hours apart are these 2 observations??? both of you are right times are different Quoting stormwatcherCI: What makes you think it is further south ? ok I'll make up a graphics give me 2mins Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5453

1284. AussieStorm 11:24 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting stormwatcherCI: 0545Z would have been around 1:45 am EDT so around 3 hours or so difference. So in about 3 hrs Leslie has travelled 0.7N, yet the NHC still says movement is West. mmmmmm Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13355

1285. GTcooliebai 11:25 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Leslie's center might be running south of forecast track again. Leslie Long Floater - Visible Imagery Loop Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5191

1286. aislinnpaps 11:25 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
My kids and classroom await me. Everyone have a great Friday! Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2438

1287. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:28 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Convection in the eyewall of Kirk has weakened and the eye has become a bit less well defined. It may have peaked. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

1288. GTcooliebai 11:28 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
500 mb. vort. displaced to the south of the center: Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5191

1289. Agathorn 11:29 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting LargoFl: we all must thank that bermuda high and the changed conditions..because all the good models had Kirk AND leslie, hitting the same area's near or IN..the same area's as Isaac, one after another..what a diseaster That would have been, probably nothing left standing Yeah I remember seeing that on the models and though to myself, "Oh god that could be bad. I hope this doesn't play out". Thankfully it isn't. It was almost the EXACT same track! Member Since: June 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9

1290. GTcooliebai 11:32 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Leslie has a nice anticyclone attached to her: Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5191

1291. AussieStorm 11:34 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting Agathorn: Yeah I remember seeing that on the models and though to myself, "Oh god that could be bad. I hope this doesn't play out". Thankfully it isn't. It was almost the EXACT same track! Check out this loop.... Link Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13355

1292. stormwatcherCI 11:35 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm: So in about 3 hrs Leslie has travelled 0.7N, yet the NHC still says movement is West. mmmmmm Actually, now they are saying wnw. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

1293. GTcooliebai 11:38 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm: Check out this loop.... Link I counted about 6 more storms on top of what we already have out there which would put the total at that point to 18 named storms. Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5191

1294. stormwatcherCI 11:40 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Still looks west to me and does look like the coc is just below 15N.Link Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

1295. GTcooliebai 11:41 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL092012 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.7N 93.9W ABOUT 52 MILES...83 KM...SE OF FORT SMITH. ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...W OF LITTLE ROCK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...40 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI IN ADDITION TO EXTREME EASTERN ARKANSAS. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS OF ARKANSAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTLINES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS ------- RAINFALL...AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 8 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. THESE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HEAVY RAINS WILL REACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE ONGOING DROUGHT WILL TEND TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING DOWN INITIALLY...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER TIME. RAINFALL TOTALS --------------- SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 7 PM CDT ...ALABAMA... GRAND BAY 0.6 NW 11.07 MOBILE/BATES FIELD 9.67 WILMER 7.9 SE 8.75 FAIRHOPE 2.3 N 6.42 DAPHNE 1.8 ESE 5.87 THEODORE 8.0 SSE 5.12 POINT CLEAR 1.6 SSW 5.04 SILVERHILL 0.9 SSE 4.34 FOLEY 2.0 SSW 3.71 ...ARKANSAS... MONTICELLO AIRPORT 2.91 PINE BLUFF/GRIDER FIELD 2.63 EL DORADO/GOODWIN FIELD 1.71 ...FLORIDA... VERO BEACH 5.2 S 16.60 ROYAL PALM BEACH 5.0 W 16.29 BOYNTON BEACH 1.9 NNW 14.41 PORT ST LUCIE 1.5 NE 13.04 ABERDEEN 4.2 NNW 12.41 PALM CITY 4.0 SW 11.69 HOMESTEAD AFB 9.37 FORT PIERCE/ST LUCIE 9.18 WEST PALM BEACH INTL ARPT 8.64 VERO BEACH MUNI ARPT 7.66 FORT LAUDERDALE EXECUTIVE APT 7.02 MIAMI/OPA LOCKA 6.64 POMPANO BEACH AIRPARK 5.33 WINTER HAVEN GILBERT ARPT 5.19 ORLANDO/HERNDON 5.12 HOLLYWOOD/NORTH PERRY ARPT 5.12 ...GEORGIA... GUYTON 1.9 S 5.60 BROOKLET 13.1 SE 4.60 RINCON 1.2 NNW 4.03 MONROE 5.6 NNE 3.11 JESUP 7.1 N 3.04 AUGUSTA/BUSH FIELD 2.53 ALMA/BACON CO. ARPT 2.49 SAVANNAH MUNI ARPT 2.47 FORT STEWART/WRIGHT AAF 2.06 AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD 1.95 MOODY AFB/VALDOSTA 1.50 ...LOUISIANA... NEW ORLEANS 20.08 RESERVE 0.5 SSE 13.46 LIVINGSTON 13.16 HAMMOND 2.3 WSW 11.93 TERRYTOWN 3.3 S 10.56 SLIDELL 10.40 ABITA SPRINGS 1.9 NE 10.15 BATON ROUGE/RYAN MUNI ARPT 4.57 BOOTHVILLE 4.20 MONROE RGNL ARPT 2.37 PATTERSON MEMORIAL ARPT 2.00 LAFAYETTE RGNL ARPT 1.55 ALEXANDRIA/ESLER 1.50 ...MISSISSIPPI... KILN 3.3 N 17.04 MARION RAWS/COLUMBIA 15.02 SAUCIER 1.7 NNE 12.78 PICAYUNE 5.6 ENE 12.17 DIAMONDHEAD 1.5 NE 12.04 LONG BEACH 0.7 S 11.95 MCCOMB/LEWIS FIELD 10.93 GULFPORT-BILOXI 10.85 PASCAGOULA 10.67 KEESLER AFB/BILOXI 10.17 HATTIESBURG/CHAIN MUNI ARPT 9.44 HATTIESBURG/LAUREL 7.93 JACKSON/HAWKINS FIELD 4.03 MERIDIAN/KEY FIELD 4.00 JACKSON WFO 3.93 MERIDIAN NAS/MCCAIN 1.72 ...NORTH CAROLINA... WILMINGTON/NEW HANOVER CO. ARPT 4.07 JACKSONVILLE/ELLIS AIRPORT 1.50 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... MOUNT PLEASANT 5.5 NNE 9.08 PAWLEYS ISLAND 5.6 NNE 8.36 CHARLESTON 2.8 NE 7.36 JOHNS ISLAND 9.0 SE 6.44 MEGGETT 1.8 W 4.85 BEAUFORT MCAS 3.59 ROCK HILL-YORK CO. ARPT 2.89 DARLINGTON 1.75 What a disaster! Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5191

1296. aspectre 11:43 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
1204 HurricaneHunterJoe: Kirk going fishing? What about Leslie? She still down about 14N? Icelandic cod might not hafta worry; Kirk's been strongly recurving since it became a TropicalCyclone. Mirroring that curvature rate into the future sends Kirk into the Azores. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneKirk at 31Aug.6pm The easternmost dot on the connected lines is where Invest97L became TropicalDepressionEleven. The easternmost dot on the kinked line is where TD.11 became TropicalStormKirk. The westernmost dot on the kinked line is where TS.Kirk became HurricaneKirk The northernmost dot on the connected lines is H.Kirk's most recently reported position Copy&paste cvu, sma, pxo, lpa, 23.7n43.4w- 23.8n44.5w, 23.8n44.5w- 24.3n45.5w- 24.6n46.3w- 25.1n47.1w- 25.5n47.9w- 26.1n48.6w- 26.1n48.6w- 26.8n49.2w- 27.6n50.0w, 27.6n50.0w-28.5n50.5w, 28.5n50.5w-29.6n50.7w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Leslie is already at 14.9n47.1w. A straightline projection of its initial heading between its 30Aug.12am and 31Aug.6am positions already takes it 13.5miles(21.6kilometres)North of Anegada If it maintains that heading of 286.5WNWest (or higher), Leslie would pass over the LesserAntilles by an even larger margin: enough of one that the impact from its windfield would be minimal. Of course, its rains could still have a strong effect. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormLeslie at 31Aug.6pm The easternmost dot on the connected lines is where Invest98L became TropicalDepressionTwelve. The next dot to the left is where TD.12 became TropicalStormLeslie The westernmost dot on the connected lines is TS.Leslie's most recently reported position Copy&paste bgi, 13.6n40.8w-13.8n42.6w, 13.8n42.6w-14.2n44.5w, 14.2n44.5w-14.5n45.7w, 14.5n45.7w-14.9n47.1w, 14.5n45.7w-18.941n64.293w, 18.749n64.332w-18.941n64.293w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information Member Since:* August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

1297. wunderkidcayman 11:46 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
you know what stormwatcherCI I am not going to do that graphic yet but I stand by what I said about where it is but its just that its too early to tell and I need more data to confirm and to strengthen my thinking Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5453

1298. RussianWinter 11:46 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting Agathorn: Yeah I remember seeing that on the models and though to myself, "Oh god that could be bad. I hope this doesn't play out". Thankfully it isn't. It was almost the EXACT same track! One of these days a bad scenario WILL play out. Luck runs out eventually, but when it does, you better damn hope the models were correct and gave us a large window to prepare. Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 648

1299. RussianWinter 11:48 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm: 14.1N 43.4W 14.4N 45.3W Movement N x 0.3N NHC says Movement is W?? not WNW. 14.7N 46.8W Movement N x 0.3N, again NHC says movement is W?? not WNW. Movement N x 0.5N NHC says movement is WNW. It is WNW, probably at 295-300 degrees. Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 648

1300. washingtonian115 11:49 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
C'mon Kirk.You can become a major. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10664

1301. wunderkidcayman 11:52 AM GMT on August 31, 2012
I need more microwave data I need more sattelite data I need more Sfc Obs data Leslie is starting to pull up near to an obs near 14.5N 53W I want to see what that does for the rest of the morning I hope NHC has HH flying out either today or tomorrow morning Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5453

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