Isaac slamming Gulf Coast with damaging floods, tornadoes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on August 30, 2012

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Slow-moving Tropical Storm Isaac continues to hammer coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida's Panhandle with tornadoes, torrential rains, high winds, and a damaging storm surge. Over the past 24 hours, destructive tornadoes have touched down in Biloxi and Pascagoula, Mississippi, and one person was killed by a tree falling on a car in Pearl River County, Mississippi. A major flood event is occurring in Slidell, Louisiana, where Isaac's storm surge filled Bayou Bonfouca and the W-14 Canal, inundating portions of the city with 1 - 5 feet of water. While Isaac is now a weakening minimal-strength tropical storm, it is still a potent rainmaker, and will cause damaging floods all along its path for the next three days. Major river flooding is occurring or is about to occur on a number of rivers in the landfall area. In north central Tangipahoa Parish in southeast Louisiana and southwestern Pike County in southern Mississippi, a mandatory evacuation has been ordered for all low-lying areas and along the Tangipahoa River, due to the potential failure of the Lake Tangipahoa dam. Audubon Park in New Orleans, recorded 11.19" of rain as of 7 pm Wednesday night. An earlier amount of 19" was found to be erroneous, and this is not a 24-hour precipitation record for the city. According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, New Orleans' greatest 24-hour rainfall on record is 14.01" on July 24 - 25, 1933. The Louisiana official state 24-hour record is 22.00" on Aug. 29, 1962 at Hakberry, although U.S. Army Corps of Engineers `Storm Studies' mentions a 23.80" falling in a 24-hour period at Millers Island during a TS on Aug 7-8, 1940. Storm total was 37.50" over a 60-hour period there during that event.

A few other rainfall totals from Isaac, through 11 am EDT on Thursday:

15.02" Marion, MS
10.09" Hattiesburg, MS
10.15" Gulfport, MS
9.80" Slidell, LA
9.74" Biloxi, MS
8.52" Mobile, AL
5.57" Baton Rouge, LA


Figure 1. Isaac's winds and storm surge overcomes the seawall and floods South Beach Boulevard in Waveland, Miss., Wednesday, Aug. 29, 2012, the seventh anniversary of Hurricane Katrina hitting the Gulf Coast. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis). Waveland experienced a storm surge in excess of 5' for 36 hours.

Isaac's storm surge winds down
Storm surge levels along the coast of Mississippi and surrounding areas are gradually receding, and the surge has finally fallen below 5' at Waveland, which experienced a storm surge in excess of 5' for 36 hours. Isaac's storm surge levels were characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane, and lasted for an exceptionally long period of time. Waveland, Mississippi experienced a peak surge of 8' and peak storm tide of 9' (surge plus the natural high tide), which beat the levels that occurred during Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008 (7' of storm tide.) The peak 11.06' storm surge at Shell Beach, which is in Lake Borgne, 30 miles southeast of New Orleans, exceeded the 9.5' surge recorded there during Gustav. According to an article in nola.com, Isaac pushed a storm surge of 13.6' into Lake Borgne, on the east side of New Orleans. This is not far from the 15.5' storm surge Hurricane Katrina brought to the location. It is quite possible that Isaac's storm surge might have breached levees of the east side of New Orleans, flooding areas inhabited by tens of thousands of people, had the Army Corps of Engineers not completed their $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans flood defenses this year. I estimate that storm surge damage from Isaac will exceed $2 billion. Isaac has likely caused $2.5 billion in insured damage not related to flooding, insurance firm Eqecat estimated yesterday. Here were some of the peak storm surge values that were recorded at NOAA tide gauges during Isaac:

11.1' Shell Beach, LA
8.0' Waveland, MS
3.5' Pensacola, FL
4.6' Pascagoula, MS
3.8' Mobile, AL


Figure 2. A TRMM satellite 3-D view of rainfall on Aug. 28 showed a few very powerful thunderstorms near Isaac's eye were reaching heights of almost 17 km (10.6 miles.) Intense bands of rain around Isaac were occasionally dropping rain at a rate of over 2.75 inches per hour. Image credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierce.

Isaac's storm surge on the Mississippi River
A storm surge estimated at 12' moved up the Mississippi in Plaquemines Parish near Port Sulphur, LA, near 8:30 pm EDT Tuesday, causing overtopping of the levees and flooding of homes in the mandatory evacuation areas behind the levees. These levees were not part of the $14.5 billion levee upgrade New Orleans got after Hurricane Katrina, and were not rated to Category 3 hurricane strength, like the levees protecting New Orleans are. Since salt water is more dense than fresh water, the surge travelled along the bottom of the river, with the fresh water flow of the river lying on top. The surge continued upriver, and before reaching New Orleans, encountered an underwater barrier in Plaquemines Parish. This barrier was constructed by the Army Corps of Engineers beginning on August 15, in order to keep salt water from moving upstream and contaminating drinking water for Plaquemines Parish and New Orleans. Salt water had made it 90 miles upriver to the outskirts of New Orleans, due to the low flow rate of the river (which had dropped 7' below average in height due to the drought of 2012.) According to a spokesperson for the National Weather Service River Forecast Office, this barrier was probably able to completely block the flow of salt water upriver due to Isaac's storm surge, and no salt water made it as far as New Orleans. However, the massive intrusion of ocean water into the river channel caused the mighty Mississippi's fresh water flow to back up for hundreds of miles. Water levels were elevated by 10' in New Orleans (103 miles upstream from the mouth of the Mississippi), 8' in Baton Rouge (228 miles upstream), and 1.4' at Knox Landing, an amazing 314 miles upstream.

Hurricane Kirk in the Central Atlantic
Hurricane Kirk intensified into a 75 mph Category 1 hurricane this morning, becoming the busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season's fifth hurricane. With the season's mid-point of September 10 still almost 2 weeks away, we've already had 12 named storms and 5 hurricanes, which is close to what an entire season experiences in an average year (11 named storms and 6 hurricanes.) Kirk should stay well out to sea and not trouble any land areas.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Kirk.

Tropical Storm Leslie forms in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Leslie has formed in the Central Atlantic. Leslie's formation on August 30 puts 2012 in 2nd place for earliest formation date of the season's 12th storm. Only 1995 had an earlier formation date of the season's 12th storm. With records dating back to 1851, this year is only the second time 8 total storms have formed in August. The other year was 2004, when the first storm of the season formed on August 1 (Alex), and the 8th storm (Hermine)
formed on August 29th. Leslie is organizing quickly, and appears destined to become a hurricane before the week is out. Fortunately, Hurricane Kirk is weakening the ridge of high pressure to the north of Leslie, and Leslie is expected to turn to the northwest and miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. In the long term, it remains unclear if Leslie will follow Kirk and fully recurve out to sea. The latest 2 runs of the GFS model have predicted that Leslie will recurve out to sea and not threaten any land areas, but the latest 2 runs of the ECMWF model have predicted that the trough of low pressure pulling Kirk to the northeast will not be strong enough to recurve Leslie out to sea. Instead, the ECMWF predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in early next week, forcing Leslie more to the northwest, making the storm a potential threat to Bermuda, then to the Northeast U.S. and Canada in 8 - 11 days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Isaac Louisiana (apphotos)
Two men walk in the storm surge from Isaac, on Lakeshore Drive along Lake Pontchartrain, as the storm approaches landfall, in New Orleans, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana
west palm beach flood isaac (alishu)
West Palm Beach flood from Isaac
west palm beach flood isaac
Hurricane Isaac Impacts Navarre Beach & Pier10 (jennjeff1)
Hurricane Isaac versus Navarre Beach Pier, the longest concrete pier on the Gulf of Mexico
Hurricane Isaac Impacts Navarre Beach & Pier10

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. I guess not. Was wondering earlier why we had a west wind instead of a north. I thought we were on the wrong side of the storm. :)


did some of the areas need rain?
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Hurricane Kirk:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not bad Kirk, up to 90mph.


Also, TS Leslie's formation now puts us tied with 2004 with the most active August. 8 named storms and 4 hurricanes formed this month. 12-5-0. This will probably be our first major hurricane of the season.

Not if Kirk has anything to say about it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Captain Kirk is looking really good, dare I say pinhole though.
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Not bad Kirk, up to 90mph.


Also, TS Leslie's formation now puts us tied with 2004 with the most active August. 8 named storms and 4 hurricanes formed this month. 12-5-0. This will probably be our first major hurricane of the season.
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Stewart's writing the discussion for Kirk, so expect it at 5:05pm (Eastern).
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Quoting will40:



well i wasnt too far off was i?


Lol. I guess not. Was wondering earlier why we had a west wind instead of a north. I thought we were on the wrong side of the storm. :)
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I said earlier this morning that it is futile to project a path beyond the 3 - 4 day point.

Case in point...now we have 2 models differing on path. The European model has been very accurate on the actual path.

Just not sure if Leslie will turn that early or if she will continue west. Isaac went through a series where it was thought to turn more North and instead went West into the GOM, a track that the Euro model predicted.

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Isaac is a depression now.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 92.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF MONROE LOUISIANA ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SSE OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Does Leslie is missing her next forecast point?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No.


Some others on here have said differently, but I am neutral on this.

However, I do think Gordon was a Major Hurricane, albeit briefly.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Euro vs. GFS again.

THEN SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS ON WHICH TROUGH MIGHT RECURVE THE CYCLONE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...SPEED DIFFERENCES BECOME VERY IMPORTANT ON WHETHER LESLIE MOVES QUICKLY OUT TO SEA...AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...OR GETS STUCK UNDER A RIDGE...AS FORECAST BY
THE ECMWF.
No Earl part two please :).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17794
Can someone put a picture of Kirk up? It is beautiful, and I would like to save it.
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Quoting HrDelta:


Used to think that was insane, but I think it is plausible now.

I think post-season analysis will find Gordon just barely made Major Hurricane Status.

Not sure if Beryl will be found to have been a Hurricane though.

No.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Euro vs. GFS again.

THEN SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS ON WHICH TROUGH MIGHT RECURVE THE CYCLONE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...SPEED DIFFERENCES BECOME VERY IMPORTANT ON WHETHER LESLIE MOVES QUICKLY OUT TO SEA...AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...OR GETS STUCK UNDER A RIDGE...AS FORECAST BY
THE ECMWF.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

LESLIE HAS QUICKLY ORGANIZED TODAY WITH PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES
AND INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET TO 40 KT AS A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND MICROWAVE ESTIMATES.
GLOBAL MODELS ALL BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE STORM
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO BE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LESLIE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...AND
THERE ARE EVEN A COUPLE MODELS THAT SHOW IT NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE BELOW THE ROBUST LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WHILE THE TIMING IS IMPOSSIBLE TO
PINPOINT...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF LESLIE BECAME STRONGER
THAN FORECAST IN THE THREE-TO-FIVE DAY PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/18. LESLIE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS
EXPECTED TO DIG BETWEEN 60W-70W...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO
MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN A FEW DAYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST THREE
DAYS...THEN SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS ON WHICH TROUGH MIGHT RECURVE
THE CYCLONE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...SPEED DIFFERENCES BECOME
VERY IMPORTANT ON WHETHER LESLIE MOVES QUICKLY OUT TO SEA...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...OR GETS STUCK UNDER A RIDGE...AS FORECAST BY
THE ECMWF. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...STILL A BIT FASTER AND WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING RATHER LARGE...SO THE WIND
RADII FORECAST HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 14.4N 45.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 15.3N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 16.5N 50.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 17.7N 53.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 19.0N 56.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 22.0N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 26.0N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 28.5N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Oh oh maybe my prediction of Kirk becoming the season's first major may come true?

Looks like it is possible, I will have to raise my intensity forecast.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Isaac making his presence known in SETX. He just won't give up.




well i wasnt too far off was i?
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14 Wiiilbur: [inre the page1comment2 mapping] Obviously you or someone else puts a lot of effort into creating this, but I don't understand the value. The dots show where it has been, which anyone can look up, and then there is a straight line off in some direction based on current heading

Ya'd think so, but actually no, there isn't anybody else doing it.
Otherwise I would have never started doing them for myself. Not that hard to do for myself.
And posting it is merely a cut&paste job on a premade form.
The main headache is accidently leaving in times and/or descriptions from a former mapping, then catching&correcting the error before posting.
Kinda go form-blind. Believe it or not, I do know how to code the degree sign. Yet they're ALL '*'ed over cuz WU's ModifyComment program won't allow such coding to pass through... at least not the type of coding that I know is both safe and obviously allowed by WU's InternetTechnology staff.

The data is out there, but nobody has bothered to correlate and chart them into usefully scaled maps. I mean an Atlantic-crossing map ain't whatcha need when trying to see where a storm was/is and how it was travelling speed&direction-wise in relation to eg individual islands. It ain't like there's anything helpful in knowing where a Storm is in relation to Houston, NewYork, Bermuda, and the CapeVerdes when it's within 30hours of threading its way through the Antilles.

AND apparently nobody else bothers to check the official NHC_ATCF numbers to see if they've been re-evaluated&altered since doing their last map. A quarter to a third of position coordinates have been changed from the original, at least once. And more rarely, so have the have MaximumSustainedWinds and MinimumPressures.

Did anybody else tell ya "Whoops, the landfall on the MississippiRiver mouth never occurred. The 1st Louisiana landfall actually happened ~8hours later directly upon PortFourchon." or mention the real second&final landfall directly upon Montegut?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
We are sick of Isaac on the Gulf Coast!
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Quoting WxNerdVA:
Kirk:


Isaac:


Leslie:


Isaac giving cloud cover covering 4 states near completely :o
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Kirk is very beautiful.Just to think people R.I.P this storm(including myself) three days ago.He's pulling a Gordon on us.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17794
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Oh oh maybe my prediction of Kirk becoming the season's first major may come true?


Used to think that was insane, but I think it is plausible now.

I think post-season analysis will find Gordon just barely made Major Hurricane Status.

Not sure if Beryl will be found to have been a Hurricane though.
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...LESLIE STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
5:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 30
Location: 14.4°N 45.3°W
Moving: W at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 14.4N 45.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 15.3N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 16.5N 50.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 17.7N 53.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 19.0N 56.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 22.0N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 26.0N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 28.5N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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LESLIE STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

5:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 30
Location: 14.4°N 45.3°W
Moving: W at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 45 mp
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

LESLIE HAS QUICKLY ORGANIZED TODAY WITH PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES
AND INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET TO 40 KT AS A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND MICROWAVE ESTIMATES.
GLOBAL MODELS ALL BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE STORM
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO BE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LESLIE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...AND
THERE ARE EVEN A COUPLE MODELS THAT SHOW IT NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE BELOW THE ROBUST LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WHILE THE TIMING IS IMPOSSIBLE TO
PINPOINT...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF LESLIE BECAME STRONGER
THAN FORECAST IN THE THREE-TO-FIVE DAY PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/18. LESLIE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS
EXPECTED TO DIG BETWEEN 60W-70W...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO
MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN A FEW DAYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST THREE
DAYS...THEN SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS ON WHICH TROUGH MIGHT RECURVE
THE CYCLONE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...SPEED DIFFERENCES BECOME
VERY IMPORTANT ON WHETHER LESLIE MOVES QUICKLY OUT TO SEA...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...OR GETS STUCK UNDER A RIDGE...AS FORECAST BY
THE ECMWF. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...STILL A BIT FASTER AND WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING RATHER LARGE...SO THE WIND
RADII FORECAST HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 14.4N 45.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 15.3N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 16.5N 50.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 17.7N 53.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 19.0N 56.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 22.0N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 26.0N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 28.5N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIRK ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 PM AST THU AUG 30 2012

...KIRK RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 50.3W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES



yep
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I actually live in the Tampa Bay area. See post 270, we were not too long ago in a drought.


Since early august, we've been very dry.. so far rainfall amount are still running below 2inches. Which is not acceptable for august! Yeah 2 storms and several waves crossed the Lesser Antilles, but we all know where the rain stayed lol : away from the northern islands.
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Isaac making his presence known in SETX. He just won't give up.

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Quoting wxchaser97:
...KIRK RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 30
Location: 28.2°N 50.3°W
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 982 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph
Oh oh maybe my prediction of Kirk becoming the season's first major may come true?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting jascott1967:
I wonder if Houston is approaching dought conditions, yet. Seems like it's been a long time since we had measurable precip.


East Texas looks fine.



A little more D0 drought may start to creep into the western zones, based on soil moisture depletion.



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00
WTNT32 KNHC 302036
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...LESLIE STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 45.3W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.3 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H. A MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LESLIE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY
41041 IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
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Kirk is beautiful storm on satellite, very nice outflow.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
ADT data supports an 80kt initial intensity for Kirk; I believe that's just about spot on for the time being.
...KIRK RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 30
Location: 28.2°N 50.3°W
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 982 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ILEANA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2012

...ILEANA HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 114.1W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting calder:
where is jasoniscoolman these days? he was an interesting guy


Don't know - I have had him on ignore for a long time!
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...KIRK RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 30
Location: 28.2N 50.3W
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 982 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

Once again, I had 100mph for peak and Im not looking crazy now.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
KIRK is up to 90mph

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIRK ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 PM AST THU AUG 30 2012

...KIRK RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 50.3W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 30
Location: 28.2°N 50.3°W
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 982 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

Could Kirk make Major. He's certainly cranking up in strength. This was supposed to be his predicted maximum strength,
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 302030
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIRK ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 PM AST THU AUG 30 2012

...KIRK RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 50.3W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.3 WEST. KIRK IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KIRK IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND KIRK COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Stewart seems to like Kirk for some reason.
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KIRK is up to 90mph
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281 GTcooliebai: 192 hrs. Can I get me some Fujiwhara?

Florida-to-Carolinas landfalls look more realistic to me than two fish-storms heading northwest of the Azores IF Kirk and Leslie are actually close enough to dance.
ie If Leslie is dosey-doed more northward, equal-and-opposite conservation says Kirk hasta be spun more westward.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting Grothar:



Which, coincidentally, was the year the movie "Gone with the Wind" premiered. deja vu?


These older timed ones though...are they suspect? I mean, could it not have just as likely have been a sub or post tropical storm being the data they had at the time? I just always wonder about storms from fairly long ago. Cause it seems there's plenty now, that have been post or sub, that could easily be mistaken for a tropical storm or hurricane if no one knew any better or knew if it was warm core or cold core. Just have wondered about it for a while!
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Quoting tropicofcancer:

I'm guessing : "wax on, wax off" no?


Who do you think taught Mr. Miyagi? I heard they practiced on Chariots, but that's just a rumor...
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Quoting Charmeck:

Link or image please!
216 hrs.



Also has support from some of the GFS-Ensemble Members:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Grothar:


Tricky storm. We have seen many storms initially take this track and switch. I had written early on that Isaac would move into the Caribbean and not take the Northern route, only because of the timing of the trough. In this case there are a number of features which could move it North. The weakness left behind by Kirk, and the remnants of Isaac being in place along the east coast. However, there still exists the possibility of Leslie missing them both and have the ridge build back stronger than expected, which would move her more west. This one looks like it is going to be a very strong and large storm sooner than they believe. In my personal blog I wrote on the 27th, I saw this one coming. The atmosphere was just right for a strong system.

I also give advice on the best way to wax a car, but we'll save that for another blog.

I'm guessing : "wax on, wax off" no?
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My thoughts. Please let me remind you that my forecast for Leslie is very low confidence.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802

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