Isaac slamming Gulf Coast with damaging floods, tornadoes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on August 30, 2012

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Slow-moving Tropical Storm Isaac continues to hammer coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida's Panhandle with tornadoes, torrential rains, high winds, and a damaging storm surge. Over the past 24 hours, destructive tornadoes have touched down in Biloxi and Pascagoula, Mississippi, and one person was killed by a tree falling on a car in Pearl River County, Mississippi. A major flood event is occurring in Slidell, Louisiana, where Isaac's storm surge filled Bayou Bonfouca and the W-14 Canal, inundating portions of the city with 1 - 5 feet of water. While Isaac is now a weakening minimal-strength tropical storm, it is still a potent rainmaker, and will cause damaging floods all along its path for the next three days. Major river flooding is occurring or is about to occur on a number of rivers in the landfall area. In north central Tangipahoa Parish in southeast Louisiana and southwestern Pike County in southern Mississippi, a mandatory evacuation has been ordered for all low-lying areas and along the Tangipahoa River, due to the potential failure of the Lake Tangipahoa dam. Audubon Park in New Orleans, recorded 11.19" of rain as of 7 pm Wednesday night. An earlier amount of 19" was found to be erroneous, and this is not a 24-hour precipitation record for the city. According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, New Orleans' greatest 24-hour rainfall on record is 14.01" on July 24 - 25, 1933. The Louisiana official state 24-hour record is 22.00" on Aug. 29, 1962 at Hakberry, although U.S. Army Corps of Engineers `Storm Studies' mentions a 23.80" falling in a 24-hour period at Millers Island during a TS on Aug 7-8, 1940. Storm total was 37.50" over a 60-hour period there during that event.

A few other rainfall totals from Isaac, through 11 am EDT on Thursday:

15.02" Marion, MS
10.09" Hattiesburg, MS
10.15" Gulfport, MS
9.80" Slidell, LA
9.74" Biloxi, MS
8.52" Mobile, AL
5.57" Baton Rouge, LA


Figure 1. Isaac's winds and storm surge overcomes the seawall and floods South Beach Boulevard in Waveland, Miss., Wednesday, Aug. 29, 2012, the seventh anniversary of Hurricane Katrina hitting the Gulf Coast. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis). Waveland experienced a storm surge in excess of 5' for 36 hours.

Isaac's storm surge winds down
Storm surge levels along the coast of Mississippi and surrounding areas are gradually receding, and the surge has finally fallen below 5' at Waveland, which experienced a storm surge in excess of 5' for 36 hours. Isaac's storm surge levels were characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane, and lasted for an exceptionally long period of time. Waveland, Mississippi experienced a peak surge of 8' and peak storm tide of 9' (surge plus the natural high tide), which beat the levels that occurred during Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008 (7' of storm tide.) The peak 11.06' storm surge at Shell Beach, which is in Lake Borgne, 30 miles southeast of New Orleans, exceeded the 9.5' surge recorded there during Gustav. According to an article in nola.com, Isaac pushed a storm surge of 13.6' into Lake Borgne, on the east side of New Orleans. This is not far from the 15.5' storm surge Hurricane Katrina brought to the location. It is quite possible that Isaac's storm surge might have breached levees of the east side of New Orleans, flooding areas inhabited by tens of thousands of people, had the Army Corps of Engineers not completed their $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans flood defenses this year. I estimate that storm surge damage from Isaac will exceed $2 billion. Isaac has likely caused $2.5 billion in insured damage not related to flooding, insurance firm Eqecat estimated yesterday. Here were some of the peak storm surge values that were recorded at NOAA tide gauges during Isaac:

11.1' Shell Beach, LA
8.0' Waveland, MS
3.5' Pensacola, FL
4.6' Pascagoula, MS
3.8' Mobile, AL


Figure 2. A TRMM satellite 3-D view of rainfall on Aug. 28 showed a few very powerful thunderstorms near Isaac's eye were reaching heights of almost 17 km (10.6 miles.) Intense bands of rain around Isaac were occasionally dropping rain at a rate of over 2.75 inches per hour. Image credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierce.

Isaac's storm surge on the Mississippi River
A storm surge estimated at 12' moved up the Mississippi in Plaquemines Parish near Port Sulphur, LA, near 8:30 pm EDT Tuesday, causing overtopping of the levees and flooding of homes in the mandatory evacuation areas behind the levees. These levees were not part of the $14.5 billion levee upgrade New Orleans got after Hurricane Katrina, and were not rated to Category 3 hurricane strength, like the levees protecting New Orleans are. Since salt water is more dense than fresh water, the surge travelled along the bottom of the river, with the fresh water flow of the river lying on top. The surge continued upriver, and before reaching New Orleans, encountered an underwater barrier in Plaquemines Parish. This barrier was constructed by the Army Corps of Engineers beginning on August 15, in order to keep salt water from moving upstream and contaminating drinking water for Plaquemines Parish and New Orleans. Salt water had made it 90 miles upriver to the outskirts of New Orleans, due to the low flow rate of the river (which had dropped 7' below average in height due to the drought of 2012.) According to a spokesperson for the National Weather Service River Forecast Office, this barrier was probably able to completely block the flow of salt water upriver due to Isaac's storm surge, and no salt water made it as far as New Orleans. However, the massive intrusion of ocean water into the river channel caused the mighty Mississippi's fresh water flow to back up for hundreds of miles. Water levels were elevated by 10' in New Orleans (103 miles upstream from the mouth of the Mississippi), 8' in Baton Rouge (228 miles upstream), and 1.4' at Knox Landing, an amazing 314 miles upstream.

Hurricane Kirk in the Central Atlantic
Hurricane Kirk intensified into a 75 mph Category 1 hurricane this morning, becoming the busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season's fifth hurricane. With the season's mid-point of September 10 still almost 2 weeks away, we've already had 12 named storms and 5 hurricanes, which is close to what an entire season experiences in an average year (11 named storms and 6 hurricanes.) Kirk should stay well out to sea and not trouble any land areas.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Kirk.

Tropical Storm Leslie forms in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Leslie has formed in the Central Atlantic. Leslie's formation on August 30 puts 2012 in 2nd place for earliest formation date of the season's 12th storm. Only 1995 had an earlier formation date of the season's 12th storm. With records dating back to 1851, this year is only the second time 8 total storms have formed in August. The other year was 2004, when the first storm of the season formed on August 1 (Alex), and the 8th storm (Hermine)
formed on August 29th. Leslie is organizing quickly, and appears destined to become a hurricane before the week is out. Fortunately, Hurricane Kirk is weakening the ridge of high pressure to the north of Leslie, and Leslie is expected to turn to the northwest and miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. In the long term, it remains unclear if Leslie will follow Kirk and fully recurve out to sea. The latest 2 runs of the GFS model have predicted that Leslie will recurve out to sea and not threaten any land areas, but the latest 2 runs of the ECMWF model have predicted that the trough of low pressure pulling Kirk to the northeast will not be strong enough to recurve Leslie out to sea. Instead, the ECMWF predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in early next week, forcing Leslie more to the northwest, making the storm a potential threat to Bermuda, then to the Northeast U.S. and Canada in 8 - 11 days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Isaac Louisiana (apphotos)
Two men walk in the storm surge from Isaac, on Lakeshore Drive along Lake Pontchartrain, as the storm approaches landfall, in New Orleans, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana
west palm beach flood isaac (alishu)
West Palm Beach flood from Isaac
west palm beach flood isaac
Hurricane Isaac Impacts Navarre Beach & Pier10 (jennjeff1)
Hurricane Isaac versus Navarre Beach Pier, the longest concrete pier on the Gulf of Mexico
Hurricane Isaac Impacts Navarre Beach & Pier10

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok Taz ready ok here it is



LOL yeah I found this shirt in my closet and I said hey Taz may love this



LOL
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Quoting sar2401:


I'm pretty sure no one is letting their guard down after Isaac. It seems that small storms like Kirk can become intense almost in spite of things like low TCHP. Isaac showed what a hard time big storms have doing the same thing.

Exactly!
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Well that wouldn't be good.

Im thinking that were gonna have Deja Vu of the past seasons' predictions overall...
I mean literally... These past 3 seasons have basically been an altered version of a endless loop.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


We actually have exactly 3 months from today Nov.30th Hurricane Seasons ends, we're only 3 months wise halfway through the Season. I would say 5 in September, 3 in October and 1 in November.

I predicted 14/7/3 for the 2012 Season, looks like I'll be eating some crow:)


You still might be correct for the number of Major Hurricanes.
Quoting sar2401:


I wonder if that includes Florida, SC, and NC? They may be counted separately since, in theory, most of the flooding was caused after Isaac had moved west. I can easily see another $500 million there.


That was only insured, which means damage is actually $3 Billion, using the NHC's rule. And I think Isaac may continue to be an issue through Flooding. Also, let's not discount the possibility it pulls an Ike.
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Quoting opal92nwf:

Yeah, but if Kirk is making a run for major in the low amount of TCHP he is in, then people in the Eastern Gulf should not let their guard down.


I'm pretty sure no one is letting their guard down after Isaac. It seems that small storms like Kirk can become intense almost in spite of things like low TCHP. Isaac showed what a hard time big storms have doing the same thing.
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I already have my avatar picked for next year's hurricane season! lol
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

2013 ;)

Actually 2013 will be about the same as 2007/2008 relatively Analog-wise.

Well that wouldn't be good.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
Yeah...it doesn't appear this season will be shut off like originally anticipated. The CFS model only shows slight warming before a leveling off trend by November, and I even doubt the slight warming given the continued cooling over the past month.

2012 may go down as the second or third most active on record with us having 12 named storms and not even to September yet.

By the way, for next month...3-5 named storms, 2-4 hurricanes, and 1-3 majors.
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Quoting msphar:
Go West young lady! Go way far West. forget about the turn and the models.

What's wrong with a fish storm? (No offense to mariners...some mariner folks & family don't like it when we call them fish when they can be affected)...
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My family was joking about how if Isaac didn't make it to hurricane strength (which it did not look like it was going to for awhile), then The Weather Channel probably would have killed themselves. lmao!
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ok Taz ready ok here it is



LOL yeah I found this shirt in my closet and I said hey Taz may love this
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Quoting HrDelta:
CNN is reporting that preliminary damage estimates for insured losses are at $1.5 Billion from Isaac.

Those are the "First" estimates.

Those should climb much further over the next month.

Im thinking final cost for Isaac should sit around 4-8 Billion.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
RAW T# for Kirk have jumped to 5.0.

If the next set of TAFB/SAB come in with 5.0 we'll have a Category 2.


With the way Kirk is going, it will ending be a click higher than that.

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Quoting HrDelta:
CNN is reporting that preliminary damage estimates for insured losses are at $1.5 Billion from Isaac.


I wonder if that includes Florida, SC, and NC? They may be counted separately since, in theory, most of the flooding was caused after Isaac had moved west. I can easily see another $500 million there.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


We actually have exactly 3 months from today Nov.30th Hurricane Seasons ends, we're only 3 months wise halfway through the Season. I would say 5 in September, 3 in October and 1 in November.

I predicted 14/7/3 for the 2012 Season, looks like I'll be eating some crow:)
I predicted 15.We'll be sharing then :).
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.So when a dud of a season like 2009 comes around the blog will erupt in madness because their will be almost nothing to track in the Atlantic.

2013 ;)

Actually 2013 will be about the same as 2007/2008 relatively Analog-wise.
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Quoting sar2401:

Whoops...I miscounted...we actually have nine names to go:

Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William

I certainly hope that the next two months doesn't get us 10 named storms, which is the only way we get Alpha.


We actually have exactly 3 months from today Nov.30th Hurricane Seasons ends, we're only 3 months wise halfway through the Season. I would say 5 in September, 3 in October and 1 in November.

I predicted 14/7/3 for the 2012 Season, looks like I'll be eating some crow:)
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Meaning that we're losing El Nino?






yes
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Quoting sar2401:


Looks like more 29's and 30's now compared to 30's and 31's a week ago. The TCHP in the eastern Gulf look particularly unimpressive.


Yeah, but if Kirk is making a run for major in the low amount of TCHP he is in, then people in the Eastern Gulf should not let their guard down.
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Quoting sar2401:


Could be, since we only have for names left.

In other news, the dam that was going to collapse in 90 minutes at 10:00 am CDT hasn't. A total of 18 families did evacuate, and some farmers moved their cows to higher ground. Parish President Gordie has been quoted as saying "Well, it could have happened, and I did manage to make it on the national news." :)


TANGIPAHOA PARISH, La. – Louisiana officials were hoping efforts on Thursday by crews in Mississippi would alleviate pressure on a lake dam stressed by Hurricane Isaac’s heavy rains that, if it failed, would send torrents of water south into Tangipahoa Parish.

But both Tangipahoa Parish President Gordon Burgess and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal urged residents not to wait around to see if the planned breaching efforts were a success or failure.

“Certainly the hope is the efforts in Mississippi will be successful,” Jindal said. “Even if they are successful, I would recommend people in those zones, in those areas near the river especially, especially the low-lying areas, to evacuate and stay evacuated until the river crests.”

An immediate evacuation was called for Kentwood early in the afternoon after a flyover of Lake Tangipahoa at Percy Quin State Park by Jindal and Burgess.

More than 50,000 people would be affected by the river, already swollen, if it were to take on the extra water. The river currently is at 12.4 feet at Kentwood, just .6 inches from flood stage. Without the water from the dam, the river would crest at 15 feet. A dam break would add an extra two feet to the crest.

“I was in sort of shock when we did do the flyover,” Burgess said. “I thought we’d go to see a small area that was breached or possibly breached. But it was not. It was a wide area. It does take but just a little breach to make it a big problem for all of us. That water would get down south quick.”

Water would reach the Louisiana border in 90 minutes, officials said, giving the area another memorable flood to go along with the ones in 1983 and ’90.

“But we don’t want people wait because the worst thing could happen is people get a false sense of confidence and then if there were to be a breach over night, it would be a lot harder for people to evacuate,” Jindal said.

But a failure was far from certain.

McComb, Miss., mayor Whitney Rawlings said there was a 50 percent chance the dam would fail. He said it currently was holding, but the concern is that it would eventually give.

“What they’re doing now is saying, ‘OK, this thing might go. People need to be moving now in case it does go.’ And lord only knows if this thing holds or not,” Rawlings said.

The Enterprise-Journal in McComb reported in June that Lake Tangipahoa was set to be drained in order to “rework the dam and spillway valve.” According to the paper, the work was expected to take all winter.

It wasn’t clear, however, if the dam already was in trouble before Isaac’s abundant rains were added to the lake’s level.

Residents within a mile of each side of the river were asked to evacuate originally, but that was reduced to half a mile.

Evacuation routes to get out LA-16, LA-40 or LA 442 to Hwy. 51 and Tangipahoa Sheriff Daniel Edwards said it appeared people were taking advantage of the early alert.

“For those people who have not heeded the warning to evacuate along the Tangipahoa Parish River, we would certainly encourage you to do so,” Edwards said. “The good news is I saw people in earnest trying to load their vehicles, trying to get their vehicles filled with gas and trying to get out. I think a lot of people are hearing the message. I think they’re going to comply with the orders.”

Amite Chief of Police Jerry Trabona said officers were going from house to house along both sides of the river, notifying residents of the river threat.

“If they don’t have a way out, we will bring them out of there,” Trabona said.

Hammond wasn’t expected to see any of the flooding from Tangi River and its mayor offered up shelters for those evacuating the region.

Shelters have been set up at Hammond West Side Elementary, Hammond Junior High Magnet, Nesom Middle School, Amite High School, Kentwood High School and Natalbany Elementary
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

That would mean that we would have to have the exact same activity as August did... And its already shown by the models we will see
Michael and Nadine by early September...
I can believe us getting about 5-6 named storms in September... but nothing more... And October and November should be the equivalent to what the 2011 season was like then. 2 named storms in two months...

3 years of 19 named storms... THAT'S CRAZY!
Yes.So when a dud of a season like 2009 comes around the blog will erupt in madness because their will be almost nothing to track in the Atlantic.
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Go West young lady! Go way far West. forget about the turn and the models.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Regarding El Nino, Nino 1+2 remain on a crash dive.


Nino 3 is going to dip.



Meaning that we're losing El Nino?
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Here is the SSTs a week ago on my blog....

Here are the currents SSTs....

See the thermo birdseye chart at both links to compare and contrast...


Looks like more 29's and 30's now compared to 30's and 31's a week ago. The TCHP in the eastern Gulf look particularly unimpressive.

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Quoting Tazmanian:



oh boy is it you in a dress?

LOL very funny nope

Quoting clwstmchasr:


The first advisory was written on Isaac when he was at 15N 52W. The forecast direction was due west into the caribbean. The first advisory on Leslie is 7 degrees East and the path is out to sea. Way different scenarios.


maybe, maybe not lets just wait and see

Taz just wait
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Quoting sar2401:

Whoops...I miscounted...we actually have nine names to go:

Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William

I certainly hope that the next two months doesn't get us 10 named storms, which is the only way we get Alpha.

That would mean that we would have to have the exact same activity as August did... And its already shown by the models we will see
Michael and Nadine by early September...
I can believe us getting about 5-6 named storms in September... but nothing more... And October and November should be the equivalent to what the 2011 season was like then. 2 named storms in two months...

3 years of 19 named storms... THAT'S CRAZY!
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CNN is reporting that preliminary damage estimates for insured losses are at $1.5 Billion from Isaac.
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"They kept saying Earl would turn,but apparently he had his own rules"."Someones Labor day plans were ruined!".
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Regarding El Nino, Nino 1+2 remain on a crash dive.


Nino 3 is going to dip.


Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24263
Quoting CybrTeddy:
RAW T# for Kirk have jumped to 5.0.

If the next set of TAFB/SAB come in with 5.0 we'll have a Category 2.

He is still really intensifying and organizing, could end the month with 12/5/1.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
Quoting Tazmanian:



why will it shut off



EL nino is poofing out

I thought El Nino was delayed...not abolished...
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318. aspectre 8:40 PM GMT on August 30, 2012
"Did anybody else tell ya "Whoops, the landfall on the MississippiRiver mouth never occurred. The 1st Louisiana landfall actually happened ~8hours later directly upon PortFourchon." or mention the real second&final landfall directly upon Montegut?"

Ya know, your first comment on what you believe to be a non-existent Mississippi delta first landfall made me go back and look at all the NHC discussions and advisories between first to second landfall for Isaac. Nowhere did I see NHC make a denial of the first landfall. Then I come here and see you've posted this again - apparently your own theory.

Seems to me Isaac's eye was big enough that a lat-long "point" is not the best way of determining landfall. NHC has better tools for this. Radar for instance.
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

I just said that...lol

Alright...good points...

But look at 2006...when El Nino showed up...why werent't there any decent home brews? The shear from the troughs was too strong for tropical development along the surface fronts....right?

Now we did see a lot of this home grown stuff from upper troughs/surface fronts in May and June (Alberto thru Chris)...but those were troughs that were weak and disconnected from the jet stream...but El Nino troughs are more connected and hence have more vertical shear...

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RAW T# for Kirk have jumped to 5.0.

If the next set of TAFB/SAB come in with 5.0 we'll have a Category 2.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24263
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Nope. Activity will shut off in Late september.

May
Alberto
Beryl
June
Chris
Debby
August
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
September
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
October
Rafael



why will it shut off



EL nino is poofing out
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I love these entertaining model runs.
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Quoting JeffM:
90 mph 982 no recon into Kirk. They can say whatever they want in the middle of nowhere, which is why I point out what goes on

Can definitely see Bastardi's point after what we saw with Isaac.

They go off of Satellite presentation and estimates... Not exactly- guesswork, but close to it.

The Guestimate the intensity, and as of right now... Kirk is nearing Major Hurricane status.
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My forecast, NOT OFFICIAL


A major in the making:


A threat to become a major and a threat to the US:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
Leslie portraying decent structure, lacking on the eastern quad. Very typical structure for developing CV major hurricanes.


We're going to be tracking this one for a while as it begins to go out to sea.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24263
78 hours:

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Quoting BahaHurican:
I doubt it. I don't think we'll see more than another 5 storms at the most, which will take us to, what, the S or T name?

OTOH, I'm basing my prognisication on the expectation of a genuine El Nino onset, which seems less likely now than it did 8 weeks ago...

Whoops...I miscounted...we actually have nine names to go:

Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William

I certainly hope that the next two months doesn't get us 10 named storms, which is the only way we get Alpha.
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Quoting sar2401:


I'd also like to see the newest Gulf temps compared to a week ago. It's hard to believe that Isaac could have created such a large and long lasting storm surge without causing at least some cold water upwelling. The TCHP in the Gulf was never that strong to begin with, regardless of how warm the sea surface temps are.

Nice blog, BTW.


Here is the SSTs a week ago on my blog....

Here are the currents SSTs....

See the thermo birdseye chart at both links to compare and contrast...
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Quoting opal92nwf:

What about home-brews?

I just said that...lol
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445. JeffM
90 mph 982 no recon into Kirk. They can say whatever they want in the middle of nowhere, which is why I point out what goes on

Can definitely see Bastardi's point after what we saw with Isaac.
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Both Kirk and Leslie pose extremely high threats to becoming major hurricanes.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I am more like A and 1....there are too many troughs swinging in to recurve systems out to sea (like we are seeing with Kirk and Leslie computer model runs)...and if El Nino comes around for the winter...the troughs are only going to get stronger as we push into October...November...

Remember if the troughs get more into the gulf and stall that increase the chance for homegrown development.
I'm going with C. 50% and 1. sometime in sept!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



sorry but not evere thing gos has plan all so not evere track follows what the nhc says this storm is not moveing at 21mph has the nhc say it is to me it has really slowed down too 10 too 15mph all so right now it will keep moveing W

I haven't checked the upper and surface layers of model runs...but with a storm like Leslie that is going to strengthen and get deep-layered...you need to check BOTH the surface and upper layers for ridge weakenesses (troughs)...as Leslie will be tall enough/strong enough to feel a weakness in most layers....
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Quoting Tazmanian:



sorry but not evere thing gos has plan all so not evere track follows what the nhc says this storm is not moveing at 21mph has the nhc say it is to me it has really slowed down too 10 too 15mph all so right now it will keep moveing W
In the visible loop you can see the COC behind the deep convection because is moving at 20 but the last few frames the COC seems to catch up to the convection.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Kirk could easily become the season's first major.
And now that we have Leslie, we have 8 named storms in August.
We could very well se Alpha this year.

Nope. Activity will shut off in Late september.

May
Alberto
Beryl
June
Chris
Debby
August
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
September
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
October
Rafael
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Not sure how this TCHP (tropical cyclone heat potential) really works...I am not that convinced...for example Gordon bombed-out to cat 2 in the NE Atlantic earlier this month...

I use sea-surface temp maps. The one on my blog shows Kirk over 29 deg C this morning...plenty warm for development. The Gulf temps are 29 to 30 deg C...so using sea-surface temps...the Gulf is not that different from where Kirk is....


I'd also like to see the newest Gulf temps compared to a week ago. It's hard to believe that Isaac could have created such a large and long lasting storm surge without causing at least some cold water upwelling. The TCHP in the Gulf was never that strong to begin with, regardless of how warm the sea surface temps are.

Nice blog, BTW.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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