Isaac pounding Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:01 PM GMT on August 29, 2012

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Hurricane Isaac continues to lumber slowly northwestwards at 6 mph, as it pounds Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida's Panhandle with torrential rains, high winds, and a damaging storm surge. The eye was partially over water for most of the 15 hours after Isaac's official landfall at 7:45 pm EDT Tuesday night, but New Orleans radar shows the eye of the storm is now fully ashore near Houma. The radar echoes show some weakening on the west side of the eyewall, where dry air has infiltrated the storm. Wind shear remains light, and upper level outflow over Isaac is as impressive as we've seen so far, with a strong outflow channel to the north, and a respectable one to the south, as well. Infrared and visible satellite loops show a very large, symmetric, and well organized storm, and Isaac is going to be able to stay near Category 1 hurricane strength all day today. This will allow Isaac to drop rainfall amounts of 15 - 20" in some areas of Louisiana before the storm is over. A few rainfall totals from Isaac through 11 am EDT:

9.26" New Orleans Lakefront Airport
5.59" Belle Chasse, LA
5.21" Mobile, AL
3.65" Hattiesburg, MS
3.42" Gulfport, MS
2.81" Biloxi, MS


Figure 1. Morning radar reflectivity image from New Orleans.

A dangerous storm surge event underway
Isaac is bringing a large and dangerous storm surge to the coast from Central Louisiana to the Panhandle of Florida. Late this morning was high tide along much of the coast, and the highest water levels of Isaac are likely being experienced at many locations. At 11:30 am EDT, here were some of the storm surge values being recorded at NOAA tide gauges:

8.0' Waveland, MS
8.2' Shell Beach, LA
2.0' Pensacola, FL
4.6' Pascagoula, MS
3.4' Mobile, AL

The peak 11.06' storm surge at 1:30 am EDT this morning at Shell Beach, which is in Lake Borgne, 20 miles southeast of New Orleans, exceeded the 9.5' surge recorded there during Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008. In general, the storm surge heights from Isaac have been more characteristic of a strong Category 2 hurricane, rather than the weak Category 1 hurricane one might suppose Isaac is, based on its top sustained winds of 75 - 80 mph. The Saffir-Simpson Scale for ranking hurricanes is only a crude measure of their potential impacts.

A storm surge estimated at 12' moved up the Mississippi in Plaquemines Parish near Port Sulphur, LA, near 8:30 pm EDT Tuesday, causing overtopping of the levees and flooding of homes in the mandatory evacuation areas behind the levees. These levees were not part of the $14.5 billion levee upgrade New Orleans got after Hurricane Katrina, and were not rated to Category 3 hurricane strength, like the levees protecting New Orleans are. The surge continued upriver, elevating the water levels 10' in New Orleans (103 miles upstream from the mouth of the Mississippi), 8' in Baton Rouge (228 miles upstream), and 1.4' at Knox Landing, an amazing 314 miles upstream. The river was 7' low due to the great 2012 U.S. drought, and I suspect the near-record low flow rate of the river allowed the storm surge to propagate so far upstream. The salt water from the storm surge will be slow to leave the river, due to the continued winds of Isaac keeping the surge going, plus the very low flow rates of the river. One benefit of the heavy rains of 10 - 20 inches expected to fall over Louisiana over the next two days will be to increase the flow rate of the Mississippi River, helping flush the salt water out of the river. The low flow rates of the Mississippi had allowed salt water to move upriver to just south of New Orleans over the past few weeks, threatening the drinking water supply of Plaquemines Parish.


Figure 2. Tide gauge data from Waveland, Mississippi. The green line shows the storm surge. The red line is the storm tide, the height of the water above Mean Sea Level (MSL.) The storm tide at Waveland currently (9') is 2' higher than that of Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Tropical Storm Kirk in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Kirk formed Tuesday night in the Central Atlantic. Kirk's formation at 03 UTC on August 29 puts 2012 in 4th place for earliest formation date of the season's 11th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1933 had an earlier formation date of the season's 11th storm. Kirk should stay well out to sea and not trouble any land areas.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Kirk.

Invest 98L in the Eastern Atlantic
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) is about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving west to west-northwest at about 15 mph. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 50% chance of developing by Friday morning. Several of the models develop 98L into a tropical depression by this weekend, but none of the reliable models foresee that 98L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles. The storm may be a threat to Bermuda next week, but it is too early to say if it may threaten the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting floridaT:
i thought Jindal was for "smaller gov"


Sometimes you need government, you know, to help people out in times of disaster.

The term "small" government is just a catchy term for people to spread around for popularity. However, when they mean "small" government, they are talking about less centralization of government and less state control of economics.

But one of the main roles of the government is to come to aid during disaster, if money is spent in doing so, even large amounts. It is necessary in order to save lives and I sure hope that's something everyone can agree on regardless of political views. This isn't about republican or democrat in times of trial, it's about saving lives which should remove political debate and boundaries and bring people together to do what it takes to save people even if those people ignored evacuations and don't want to save themselves. I hope we all love human life more than money, I mean not to turn this into a political debate, I'm just expressing something I believe is important.
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Isaac looks more impressive over land then he ever did over water
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Quoting JeffM:


What does wanting a smaller government have to do with needing assistance during a disaster?


Louisiana was issued Federal Disaster Support on Monday. What Jindal is complaining about is that he DIDN't get the full monty that would reimburse the state for their emergency expenses.

The Feds are providing full support in personnel and supplies.

The irony is that he has refused federal funding for items in the past for political reasons yet wants the feds to reimburse his state for their expenses on this disaster...
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Quoting wilburo33:


Sounds like you enjoyed having Blanco running the show!!! It still is not perfect but the leadership in the Great State of Louisiana has improved 100x since the Blanco/Nagin Katrina mess.

And that my friend is the truth!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Just got back from a doctor's appt this morning. It was sunny and windy here at home, but as I drove into town, more east, it was dark and windier, with spits of rain. I'm about 10 miles as the crow flies from the Texas border about halfway up. We're now at 20 mph wind with 36 mph gusts. Fort Polk parked some humvees at the police station in town. Fort Polk probably collaborating with town in case we lose electric here. We're obviously on the west side of the storm unless it takes one of those westerly tracks, which I don't think it will. Worst we'll get is flooding (under a watch and with the geography here we get flooding anytime we get alot of rain) and possible loss of electric.
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Quoting ironbanks:
Listening to Jindal beg Obama for full emergency funds sickens me. I dislike them both. One hell of a Cat one. The number of trees down in Destrehan is worse than any previous storm here.


I don't understand your issue.

The only way that the Governor can get Federal Assistance is to request it from the President... His Administration then approves the request and makes federal assets available to Governor to conduct disaster operations.

In fact, the Federal Government is specifically prohibited from jumping into a local disaster and using federal funds in the absence of the request from Governor. But Presidents so it anyway...

According to noladefender, Jindal says the feds should be sending Louisiana more money. He says the declaration does not provide reimbursements to the state and local governments for emergency actions. It only provides money for "direct federal assistance," Jindal writes.

So, the Adminstration is only paying for Federal expenses (FEMA, NWS, etc.) but not for reimbursing locals to meet needs. I'm not sure, but unless the Feds approve funding, LA will be eating the costs of the national guard units as well.


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Quoting ironbanks:
Listening to Jindal beg Obama for full emergency funds sickens me. I dislike them both. One hell of a Cat one. The number of trees down in Destrehan is worse than any previous storm here.


Sounds like you enjoyed having Blanco running the show!!! It still is not perfect but the leadership in the Great State of Louisiana has improved 100x since the Blanco/Nagin Katrina mess.
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Quoting floridaT:
i thought Jindal was for "smaller gov"


He is. Sorry thing is our tax dollars go to feds for homeland security and FEMA and then we have to go beg to have them give 'em back to us when we have an emergency need for them. Begging for our own stuff back....go figure. No more politics for me now.
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Quoting JeffM:


What does wanting a smaller government have to do with needing assistance during a disaster?
ok ill explain smaller what do you cut? the nws? fema? meat and food inspection? those mres? the army corpe of engineers? air traffic control? center for desiese control ? the fbi? what exactly gets made smaller?
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286. JeffM
Quoting atl134:


A lot when funds for Joplin were blocked for a while on the basis of wanting spending cuts elsewhere to make up for it.


I don't want to get off on a political rant so I'll just say assisting during disasters is something I have no problem with our Government being involved with as long as it done properly. (see Katrina aftermath)

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Quoting Neapolitan:
It's easy to stand atop a stump and berate those who accept government help in times of distress; it's quite another to realize you yourself are in distress and the government is the only entity with a life preserver big enough to save you. That's the difference between campaigning--which some excel at--and actually governing.


+1
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You make a good point but the HH have access to equipment to show them where to sample for the highest winds. They may not get the exact highest, but they are getting pretty close.

Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:
I'll add to my post above that, as somebody who has dealt with plenty of actual data collection (in very different scientific fields from this), data is the best representation of truth you can get -- but it's not going to capture everything that happens, it is not the _only_ truth. It's data, it's the factual stuff that you can rely on (for the most part), but there's very often plenty of factual stuff that data can never capture.

Something being experienced but not backed up by measurement doesn't make it not true. It makes it unsupported by the collected data. There's a huge difference.

I hope folks are faring as well as possible with whatever conditions they are _still_ experiencing.

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Unbeleivable! My wife just told me the Sun Herald, which is the main paper for the MS Gulf Coast based in Gulfport, was just delivered. Now that is dedication.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
We can see the cloud shield well outside looking east here in the Houston/Galveston area. Wind advisory in effect till 8PM and winds are brisk when out to lunch, reminiscent of a cold front but with heat and drier air



if anyone has any understanding of what the storm is doing now, that would be great — and we can save the political blustering and NHC/NWC criticisms until after the storm actually passes and can be assessed. the storm itself is super fascinating. i don't come to this blog for politics. i come here because there are many very educated people — far, far smarter than i — who love and respect weather. i know several of them are without power and can't comment... but i'm hoping that we can increase the level of respect, civility and topical conversation.

anyone got an idea of what's happening at the center of the storm?
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Quoting fragileuk:


Can't believe this I'm in Wemyss bay!


What a dump! I'm in Strathaven.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Really, it's storms like Isaac that happen with increasing frequency that they should really consider replacing the SSHS (cat1 - 5) with something like the IKE scale. The SSHS scale puts too much emphasis on the winds and not so much on the real issue, the surge. A combination of the rain, surge, winds and pressure shold all be Put into account into a 10 point scale to rate the destructive potential. Like say if Isaac rated a 5 on that scale instead of a 1 on the SSHS scale people might have been more aware of the dangers as more focus is put onto the other categories.


That sounds pretty practical...especially coming from a bounty hunter.

I'd think most people who read this blog by now know cat intensity means little in the whole scheme of things, but it might be better for the general public to have a rating system like that. Especially if so-named like something they'll remember. Just cause it's on the news warning of storm surge, doesn't mean a lot of people are watching. They see storm, cat1, switch channels or head to work or whatever, so may not realise how bad it might be
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I'll add to my post above that, as somebody who has dealt with plenty of actual data collection (in very different scientific fields from this), data is the best representation of truth you can get -- but it's not going to capture everything that happens, it is not the _only_ truth. It's data, it's the factual stuff that you can rely on (for the most part), but there's very often plenty of factual stuff that data can never capture.

Something being experienced but not backed up by measurement doesn't make it not true. It makes it unsupported by the collected data. There's a huge difference.

I hope folks are faring as well as possible with whatever conditions they are _still_ experiencing.

Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 368
Quoting JeffM:


What does wanting a smaller government have to do with needing assistance during a disaster?


A lot when funds for Joplin were blocked for a while on the basis of wanting spending cuts elsewhere to make up for it.
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GFS handeled this storm well I think... better then the other models.. But boy they had a hard time pin pointed Isaac thats for sure.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah, well I'm not trying to be disrespectful, but the Mayor is a Mayor, not a hurricane expert, and just doesn't understand why it was a 1. Isaac may have been in the Mayor's mind a major hurricane because it "felt" like one. But, that's not how things work in science. It's not based on what it "feels" or "seems" like. There must be specifics and classification.

Also, you can't criticize the NHC because they made it clear the potential impacts that came with Isaac and how they would be worse than what some would think you would find in a category 1 hurricane.

The recon did not find surface winds sufficient for a category 2. Just because Isaac has had great impacts due to it's large wind field and such a low pressure for a category 1 does not make it a category 2. The NHC, doesn't base a hurricane on what they "feel like", they have to have a designation.

It makes sense actually, that 100 mph gusts have occurred when you consider such low of air pressure, in areas of deeper convection near the center, stronger winds aloft can be brought down. However, just because strong wind gusts aloft can be brought down in deep convection does not make Isaac a category 2 either.


The fact is, I thank God the NHC is one part of the government that doesn't just do whatever public opinion demands. They are more concerned about saving lives and protecting people even if those people they are trying to save and inform go against them. That is actually what the government is designed to do. They aren't concerned with what bloggers think the hurricane should be.





I have a question. When the HH's report winds of let say 80mph and the NHC classifies the winds as such. Is that one measurement at one spot or do they need more than that? Just curious.
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and Isaac is going to be able to stay near Category 1 hurricane strength all day today.

Incredible really; assuming that he has started to weaken a little bit (and unwind his circulation), the broad circulation to the East is now causing training bands far away from the COC over parts of the West Coast of Florida and the Big Bend.

Never seen anything like this from a "landfalling" storm hundreds of miles away.
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Looks like I have to battle the Cat2 and Tropical Storm camps. I would have to go back and read the recon reports, but I am pretty sure they found cat1 winds sustained, and you admit you found one report. That would qualify as long as the report is accurate. I also thought there was a sustained wind at one of the airports, but I don't remember.

Quoting Wiiilbur:


Try as I might, and with dozens of buoys, platforms and other reporting stations along the path of the storm, I have only managed to find one location that registered sustained hurricane force winds, and just barely so. Hurricane status is based on sustained winds.
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Quoting alaina1085:
Currently in the Northeast eyewal of Isaac here in Ascension Parish! The winds are scary crazy!!!!! Def worse then Gustav!



Giggity
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:
Sigh.

It doesn't really matter. It'll be examined over days and we'll see what measured winds were, which is the only basis for the scale as it is defined.

That also doesn't negate people's anecdotal reports of much higher than expected winds, especially the gusts. The folks in some of these areas have lived through a whole lot of storms, I'm not going to second guess them or assume they're exaggerating. And this has been one very, very strange storm.

The communication of dangers _other_ than only direct wind speed data needs to improve a lot. That's my takeaway. My opinion is that what has taken this from sorta-nasty-but-ok to crap-destructive is the length of time it stalled out and even managed to intensify some right off the coast, not to mention the scale of it that created the surge. That isn't a danger that can ever be captured by just telling people what category the storm is, really.

Good post...
Cant see the issue as to whether or not it's cat1 or 2.

The current system only relates to windspeed.
Windspeed is really only an issue due to storm surge. Unless the winds become particularly violent.

It's the water, from surge, waves and rainfall, that are the true destroyers in the vast majority of cases.

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Quoting reedzone:


Oh, misread the post, I apologize.



cut the guy some slack! let him be
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Quoting Dsntslp:
Largo,

Thank you for all you do, truly.

This blog and your posts is how I stayed updated when we were getting so much rain and flooding in FL.

Like many others in todays economy we have no cable but we do have computers hooked to all of the televisions. The drawback to this is that most of the online broadcasts are so choppy in loading and buffering that it is almost impossible to make out what is being said at times. y.

(Sorry so long winded here y'all.)





Sounds like you need a new Internet provider. But regardless why don't you have an antenna for TV as well. It's free TV and in digital HD. I have no power right now but I have a little rechargeable 7 inch TV and I am watching all my local channels with no break ups even with all this wind in Baton Rouge..I paid like 40 dollars for this thing.
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Fact is if you live in a hurricane prone area you should always be prepared. Floridians know this very well. Whether its a TS, Cat 1 or Cat 5, have your crap ready every season. People need to stop making excuses and learn to take some personal responsibility.
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We can see the cloud shield well outside looking east here in the Houston/Galveston area. Wind advisory in effect till 8PM and winds are brisk when out to lunch, reminiscent of a cold front but with heat and drier air

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
Quoting oceanspringsMS:


It is actually the Grand just about a mile east of the Beau
Not that it is a big deal or anything but the pictiure is the Beau Rivage parking garage. The picture looks to have been taken from the top of the Four Points Shereton...you can see the I110 on ramp to I10 at the bottom of the picture
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Sigh.

It doesn't really matter. It'll be examined over days and we'll see what measured winds were, which is the only basis for the scale as it is defined.

That also doesn't negate people's anecdotal reports of much higher than expected winds, especially the gusts. The folks in some of these areas have lived through a whole lot of storms, I'm not going to second guess them or assume they're exaggerating. And this has been one very, very strange storm.

The communication of dangers _other_ than only direct wind speed data needs to improve a lot. That's my takeaway. My opinion is that what has taken this from sorta-nasty-but-ok to crap-destructive is the length of time it stalled out and even managed to intensify some right off the coast, not to mention the scale of it that created the surge. That isn't a danger that can ever be captured by just telling people what category the storm is, really.
Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 368
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I agree, there is no evidence to support this being a Cat 2 storm, recon found no Cat 2 surface winds and no sustained Cat 2 surface winds were reported... Some Cat 2 gusts, yes, but no Cat 2 sustained winds. I think people are just in shock that a storm that's "only a Cat 1" can do so much damage.


A fast moving, small, category 1 storm that is on the weaker end that has a small hurricane force wind field doesn't do much damage to areas that are well prepared for it.

Isaac isn't no weakling, he has storm surge, he stayed over an area for a long amount of time.

The comparison between an ordinary category one hurricane and Isaac is closer to the comparison between 2010 tropical storm Bonnie and 2001 tropical storm Allison.
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Listening to Jindal beg Obama for full emergency funds sickens me. I dislike them both. One hell of a Cat one. The number of trees down in Destrehan is worse than any previous storm here.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Really, it's storms like Isaac that happen with increasing frequency that they should really consider replacing the SSHS (cat1 - 5) with something like the IKE scale. The SSHS scale puts too much emphasis on the winds and not so much on the real issue, the surge. A combination of the rain, surge, winds and pressure shold all be Put into account into a 10 point scale to rate the destructive potential. Like say if Isaac rated a 5 on that scale instead of a 1 on the SSHS scale people might have been more aware of the dangers as more focus is put onto the other categories.



Hmmm. But a lot of the damage Isaac is doing is due to it stalling. Gets a bit trickier when you have to factor in tracking speed.
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Quoting reedzone:


Tell that to those affected.. This was most likely a low end Category 2 storm.

the Mayor is actually challenging the NHC to go back and research Isaac more because he thinks it was a Major Hurricane, course it wasn't but a Category 2 is deff in the books.


But a cat1 that hovers and unleashes cat1 winds for over 24 hours persistantly, could easily damage things just as well as a high cat2 or cat3 that blows through unpeded. The sustained force will do as much damage as the higher winds in the end. I hate to think of a stalled out cat3 that's as big as Isaac, there's everyones DOOMcane. So, I don't really think the damage means it was cat2 or that it should be regraded later just cause the daamage was worse than a cat1 is expected to be. Any winds recorded probably won't matter unless they were at official stations. And gusts won't make them upgrade to a cat2 I reckon, as they'd want proof of cat2 sustained.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah, well I'm not trying to be disrespectful, but the Mayor is a Mayor, not a hurricane expert, and just doesn't understand why it was a 1. Isaac may have been in the Mayor's mind a major hurricane because it "felt" like one. But, that's not how things work in science. It's not based on what it "feels" or "seems" like. There must be specifics and classification.

Also, you can't criticize the NHC because they made it clear the potential impacts that came with Isaac and and how they would be worse than what some would think you would find in a category 1 hurricane.

The recon did not find surface winds sufficient for a category 2. Just because Isaac has had great impacts due to it's large wind field and such a low pressure fore a category 1 does not make it a category 2. The NHC, doesn't base a hurricane on what they "feel like", they have to have a designation.

It makes sense actually, that 100 mph gusts have occurred when you consider such low of air pressure, in areas of deeper convection near the center, stronger winds aloft can be brought down. However, just because strong wind gusts aloft can be brought down in deep convection does not make Isaac a category 2 either.



Well strong winds aloft being brought down is what differentiates each category from the other, so essentially, Isaac could very well have attained category 2 strength for a brief period of time. It doesn't take much: the pressure was already there, any downdraft could have brought sustained winds of higher strength down.
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Quoting southfla:



If a homeowner submits a claim for damage, but did not put up the shutters even though they were under a hurricane warning, how likely is it that the insurance company would deny the claim ?


It's possible that the damage resulting from lack of hurricane shutter installation might be paid (or not). Is the amount of damage over your deductible to begin with?

Without reading your policy and the paperwork associated with the mitigation that resulted in your premium discount, I would only be guessing.
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253. JeffM
This has to be one of the slowest landfalling hurricanes EVER!
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Have a good day everyone, I have to get ready for work.. Just put it all behind us ok?
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Quoting kwgirl:
HI, I saw where you posted the other day being in Gourock. My wee bairn is now 35 years old with a wee one of her own. Loved living over there even though I tried to warm the house to 75 degrees LOL. Never made it and froze for most of my time there except the two weeks of summer and when I was extremely pregnant. Going from the tropics all my life to Scotland in January 1975 was rough. Learned to like tea, the proper way. Only thing that can warm you up, except for the excellant local brew. But I never developed a taste for Scotch. God bless you and your family. I know you said you were taking care of your Mum. Stay strong.


Can't believe this I'm in Wemyss bay!
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Quoting oracle28:


Remember, he also said it wouldn't cross 85W, so consider the source.

And the NHC had it going up the centre of Florida....

Come on guys, stop the foolishness, pl;ease.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


is the eye-looking feature really an eye or dry air ..like always has been the case with this storm


Good question, seems to come and go. Just from looking at it I'd say a mixture of both
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
Quoting CybrTeddy:

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
IMMINENT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

Code Red!!!
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Quoting reedzone:


Tell that to those affected.. This was most likely a low end Category 2 storm.

the Mayor is actually challenging the NHC to go back and research Isaac more because he thinks it was a Major Hurricane, course it wasn't but a Category 2 is deff in the books.


Yeah, well I'm not trying to be disrespectful, but the Mayor is a Mayor, not a hurricane expert, and just doesn't understand why it was a 1. Isaac may have been in the Mayor's mind a major hurricane because it "felt" like one. But, that's not how things work in science. It's not based on what it "feels" or "seems" like. There must be specifics and classification.

Also, you can't criticize the NHC because they made it clear the potential impacts that came with Isaac and how they would be worse than what some would think you would find in a category 1 hurricane.

The recon did not find surface winds sufficient for a category 2. Just because Isaac has had great impacts due to it's large wind field and such a low pressure for a category 1 does not make it a category 2. The NHC, doesn't base a hurricane on what they "feel like", they have to have a designation.

It makes sense actually, that 100 mph gusts have occurred when you consider such low of air pressure, in areas of deeper convection near the center, stronger winds aloft can be brought down. However, just because strong wind gusts aloft can be brought down in deep convection does not make Isaac a category 2 either.


The fact is, I thank God the NHC is one part of the government that doesn't just do whatever public opinion demands. They are more concerned about saving lives and protecting people even if those people they are trying to save and inform go against them. That is actually what the government is designed to do. They aren't concerned with what bloggers think the hurricane should be.



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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