Hurricane Isaac hits Louisiana, driving dangerous storm surges

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 AM GMT on August 29, 2012

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Hurricane Isaac is ashore over Southeast Louisiana, having officially crossed the coast on the Mississippi Delta 90 miles southeast of New Orleans at 7:45 am EDT on August 28. Isaac intensified right up until landfall, striking with 80 mph winds and a central pressure of 970 mb. The storm's large size and large 50 - 60 mile diameter eye kept the intensification rate slow today, but it came quite close to becoming a significantly more dangerous storm. That's because at landfall, Isaac was in the midst of establishing a small inner eyewall within its large 50-mile diameter eye, a very rare feat I've never seen before. Usually, when an eye first forms, it gradually contracts, eventually becoming so small that it becomes unstable. An outer concentric eyewall then forms around the small inner eyewall, eventually becoming the only eyewall when the inner eyewall collapses. But Isaac is a very unusual storm that has continually surprised us, and this inside-out concentric eyewall formation fits the storm's unusual character. The storm isn't in a hurry to move fully inland, and has slowed down to a crawl this evening. This will give the storm the opportunity to keep its center mostly over water a few more hours, and maintain hurricane strength into the early morning on Wednesday.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image from New Orleans as Isaac made landfall at 6 pm CDT August 28, 2012.

A dangerous storm surge event underway
Isaac is bringing large and dangerous storm surge to the coast from Central Louisiana to the Panhandle of Florida. At 10 pm EDT, here were some of the storm surge values being recorded at NOAA tide gauges:

6.2' Waveland, MS
9.9' Shell Beach, LA
3.0' Pensacola, FL
4.4' Pascagoula, MS
3.4' Mobile, AL

The 9.9' storm surge at Shell Beach, which is in Lake Borgne 20 miles southeast of New Orleans, exceeds the 9.5' surge recorded there during Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008. Research scientists running a Doppler on Wheels radar located on top of the 16' levees in Plaquemines Parish near Port Sulphur, LA, reported at 8:30 pm EDT that a storm surge of 14' moved up the Mississippi River, and was just 2' below the levees. Waves on top of the surge were cresting over the west side of the levee. Needless to say, they were very nervous. Over the past hour, the surge has retreated some, and waves were no longer lapping over the top of the levee. This is probably due to the fact that we're headed towards low tide. A storm surge of 9.5' has moved up the Mississippi River to the Carrrollton gauge in New Orleans. This is not a concern for the levees in New Orleans, since the storm surge has now brought the river up to 2.5' above its normal water level, which was 7' low due to the 2012 U.S. drought. The highest rise of the water above ground level will occur Wednesday morning over much of Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle, when the tide comes back in. It is clear now that this storm surge event will be as dangerous as that of Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008. One piece of good news: NWS New Orleans successfully launched their 00Z balloon. However, their discussion noted the atmosphere is "saturated or nearly saturated" all the way up to 470mb, or 20,000 feet. Precipitable water was 2.76 inches, which will be ripe for extremely heavy rainfall.


Figure 2. Tide gauge data from Shell Beach, located on the south shore of Lake Borgne, just east of New Orleans. The green line shows the storm surge. The red line is the storm tide, the height of the water above Mean Sea Level (MSL.)

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to Issac
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, have mobilized resources in advance of the arrival of Hurricane Isaac. Their crew, including 2 EMTs, is at the Biloxi Special Needs Shelter, and will be caring for shelter dwellers and doing rescues of people who call for help. Another team will be surveying all the shelters in the area to ensure that they are accessible to all people. You can donate to Portlight's disaster relief fund here.

I'll have more in the morning. Hunker down, New Orleans. It's going to be a long night.

Jeff Masters

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Category One Hurricane
%u2022Maximum Sustained Wind Speed: 74-95 miles per hour
%u2022Damage Category: Minimal
%u2022Approximate Pressure: Above 980 mb
%u2022Approximate Storm Surge: 3-5 feet
%u2022Examples: Hurricane Lili (2002) in Louisiana; Hurricane Gaston (2004) in South Carolina

Category Two Hurricane
%u2022Maximum Sustained Wind Speed: 96-110 miles per hour
%u2022Damage Category: Moderate
%u2022Approximate Pressure: 979-965 mb
%u2022Approximate Storm Surge: 6-8 feet
%u2022Example: Hurricane Isabel (2003) in North Carolina

Category Three Hurricane
%u2022Maximum Sustained Wind Speed: 111-129 miles per hour
%u2022Damage Category: Extensive
%u2022Approximate Pressure: 964-945 mb
%u2022Approximate Storm Surge: 9-12 feet
%u2022Examples: Hurricane Katrina (2005) in Louisiana; Hurricane Jeanne (2004) in Florida; Hurricane Ivan (2004) in Alabama

Category Four Hurricane
%u2022Maximum Sustained Wind Speed: 130-156 miles per hour
%u2022Damage Category: Extreme
%u2022Approximate Pressure: 944-920 mb
%u2022Approximate Storm Surge: 13-18 feet
%u2022Example: Hurricane Charley (2004) in Florida; Hurricane Iniki (1992) in Hawaii; the Galveston Hurricane (1900) in Texas

Category Five Hurricane
%u2022Maximum Sustained Wind Speed: 157 miles per hour and higher
%u2022Damage Category: Catastrophic
%u2022Approximate Pressure: Below 920 mb
%u2022Approximate Storm Surge: More than 18 feet
%u2022Examples: Only three Category 5 hurricanes have struck the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane (1935) in the Florida Keyes, Hurricane Camille (1969) near the mouth of the Mississippi River, and Hurricane Andrew (1992) in Florida

So we have a CAT 1 Hurricane wind speed, CAT 2 (getting close to CAT 3) in mb and CAT 3 in Storm Surge

They REALLY need to revamp this system based on more factors such as size.
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Quoting Elena85Vet:


He took in a lot of dry air from the Yucatan.


well he pumped that ridge clear past florida, and your right the past 2 days he has taken dry air out of the caribbean.....look at the wv now....huge fetch for Isaac to feed off of now to the south....

where are the steering currents to move him? there aren't any....he wont move since he is stopped until he stacks up enough to start moving himself....this spells bad news for LA.....and MS for a large part.....even us here in bama, and i feel bad for all of you across on the eastern shores, you have got it 20 times worse so far than i have.....
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
New convection burst, I'm now really going to bed.
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Quoting Bamawatcher:
On a boat off the coast of galveston, our port is port fourchon, so we ran this way to avoid the storm, looks like we may need to head south sometime this afternoon if it keeps this path


Stay safe. I know we all would be interested to hear if y'all get any weather.
Member Since: October 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
1065. jed449
Quoting TexNowNM:


I know some don't get our "paranoia" but that is because SE Texas has had such unique experiences. Allison was just a tropical storm but killed so many people and caused over a billion in damage, Rita was not supposed to hit here but did, Humberto became a hurricane literally overnight but wasn't supposed to, and Ike wasn't supposed to be ours either. Our experience has been things change dramatically in a matter of hours.

I remember last week when anyone who suggested Isaac would go west of Florida was dealt with rather harshly by some. Now look where we are.



I don't post much but have been following this site since before Katrina...I logged on back before Ike...and I agree with you 100%. I don't post because I'm not by any means an expert but watch this as a hobby...I hear what your saying...I'm in Orange, Texas and we've had our fair share...
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Quoting misscoast:

I am in Gulfport and live just a couple hundred yards from the Bayou and I am 1-1/2 miles from beach. We have had somes winds but the surge has been pretty bad in the Bayou's, especially in the area I live in.


Are you on the coast? We have finally started getting some rain in the last hour or so. We have had rain on and off since early afternoon but this band has been steady for the last 30 minutes. We will never reach anywhere near 15-20 inches (knock on wood) unless this system stalls and the NE quadrant fills in some.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

Tx better watch outtttttt!


I know some don't get our "paranoia" but that is because SE Texas has had such unique experiences. Allison was just a tropical storm but killed so many people and caused over a billion in damage, Rita was not supposed to hit here but did, Humberto became a hurricane literally overnight but wasn't supposed to, and Ike wasn't supposed to be ours either. Our experience has been things change dramatically in a matter of hours.

I remember last week when anyone who suggested Isaac would go west of Florida was dealt with rather harshly by some. Now look where we are.

Member Since: October 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
Going to bed got work later.


Good luck to everyone in the heavy weather tonight, watch out for tornado's and flooding those are your biggest threats especially fast moving/rising waters from a flash flood.


Data.
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Quoting srqthymesage:


i am east of Louisiana,which way are you facing?

I am in Gulfport and live just a couple hundred yards from the Bayou and I am 1-1/2 miles from beach. We have had somes winds but the surge has been pretty bad in the Bayou's, especially in the area I live in.
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On a boat off the coast of galveston, our port is port fourchon, so we ran this way to avoid the storm, looks like we may need to head south sometime this afternoon if it keeps this path
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Quoting odinslightning:


I think what he did is chew on a large percentage of the SAL that was present across the Atlantic Basin....if you look at the SAL maps prior to Isaac pumping the ridge compared to now you can see he ate it....and he stacked up anyway,....in a way i see him as a mixed ice cream cone....the chocolate is the rain/moisture and the vanilla is the dry SAL....and its all swirled together around the eyewall and across the different strata of the atmosphere....

notice how Jim Cantore smelled that burning smell in the air like I said earlier...he said it on tv and i was like finally at least im not fu**in crazy or just smelling my own upper lip....lol

i wonder what the burnt smell was in the air....it may be the chemicals and burn off from the oil and the smell of the dispersements????i dunno but it definately smells different than any hurricane/trop storm i have ever been around....


back outside to see clouds just 30 ft over my head go flying by me real fast....its freakin cool looking but it reminds me of....tornados....oh well, gonna go watch it....brb in a few :)


He took in a lot of dry air from the Yucatan.
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According to Recon VDM records, this basically indicates when the system did move today it moved essentially due west. Its been basically going in circles since over the same 75 nm area (based on vortex data fixes alone).




I suppose until we get a good bearing and some speed going its anyone's ball game. Whats currently occurring is not depicted by any model except gfs and nam, which do not show this extreme a slow down or course reversal.


Quite possibly, if it continues, the models will blow up on us again.
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Quoting jake436:
Preface: Not a met by any means, but a 43 yr old NOLA native, now living in south MS.

It is common for storms to take a right upon landfall. I've heard it attributed to friction, but not sure I buy that. Probably has more to do with the happenstance that it catches a trough/pull. I will say I've never seen one come in from the east and then turn SOUTH for any extended period of time. They all eventually turn right.


Hurricanes want to go poleward (North) The turn to the right (Northeast) is due to Coriolis Force, The rotation of the Earth, and inducement by troughs and ridges
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Link

This 1 hr of radar loop clearly shows zero movement.

Don't think it'll travel the 100-150 miles of land like the NHC tracking map shows in the next 15 hrs.

It would have to go from stationary to 6mph right now.
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Quoting misscoast:


I have to agree with you on that one. I am a fifty year old, as of 2 hours ago and have always noticed the same thing.


i am east of Louisiana,which way are you facing?
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Recent observed winds occurring well inland in LA east of NOLA

Time: 01:46:30Z
Coordinates: 29.5333N 89.1W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.0 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,383 meters (~ 4,537 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 988.3 mb (~ 29.18 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 121° at 80 knots (From the ESE at ~ 92.0 mph)
Air Temp: 17.4°C (~ 63.3°F)
Dew Pt: 15.5°C (~ 59.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 80 knots (~ 92.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 59 knots (~ 67.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr



So the nasty winds are already ashore and blasting through, gusts are probably in the high 70-s to mid 80s right now. Not as bad as ike but quite bad because the storm is basically not moving.
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Earlier, I got a screenshot of the hurricane as it appears on Hint.FM: I made a resized version of it to work with this forum.


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fetch clear down into the southern caribbean.....don't think this is over,.....not by a long shot,,.....
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
Quoting DataNerd:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 06:29Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 32
Observation Number: 22
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 5:56:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°59'N 89°56'W (28.9833N 89.9333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 69 miles (111 km) to the S (174°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,162m (3,812ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 79 nautical miles (91 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 145° at 85kts (From the SE at ~ 97.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the NE (49°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg)
I.
Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 5:45:00Z


Dropped 0.6 while Issac being stationary
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remember what happened to " the don" last year
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
The outer band of Isaac dropped 15 inches of rain in my area (Central West Palm Beach,FL). I can't imagine what a stalled inner band of now Hurricane Isaac will do. It's becoming worst case scenario.
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 06:29Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 32
Observation Number: 22
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 5:56:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°59'N 89°56'W (28.9833N 89.9333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 69 miles (111 km) to the S (174°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,162m (3,812ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 79 nautical miles (91 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 145° at 85kts (From the SE at ~ 97.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the NE (49°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 5:45:00Z
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Quoting kctinney:


http://www.fox8live.com/

Just copy and paste, not sure why this didn't show up as a link. Sorry


They said in N.O. that the eyewall maybe tightening up and since this storm is scheduled to stall over the warmest offshore water that that combined with the land shear maybe it's causing an EWRC and the eye maybe trying to tighten up as it is stationary.....
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
Link


Updated radar. Motion is stationary again.


Going to really need to wait 6 hrs and see what happens.
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im hoping it gets up to the heartland to dump some badly needed rains on them and then states to the east of them. just hope those ridges don't zap it and evaporate it.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Quoting Stormchaser121:
This might take the NAM model...




That would be the "flood the western gulf coast" scenario.


Very very very bad. Cross your fingers this doesn't happen.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


Where are you getting this info?


Doppler Radar
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Thanks


De nada!
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Quoting jake436:
Preface: Not a met by any means, but a 43 yr old NOLA native, now living in south MS.

It is common for storms to take a right upon landfall. I've heard it attributed to friction, but not sure I buy that. Probably has more to do with the happenstance that it catches a trough/pull. I will say I've never seen one come in from the east and then turn SOUTH for any extended period of time. They all eventually turn right.


I have to agree with you on that one. I am a fifty year old, as of 2 hours ago and have always noticed the same thing.
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Quoting kctinney:


http://www.fox8live.com/

Just copy and paste, not sure why this didn't show up as a link. Sorry

Thanks
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(click to enlarge)
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i sure hope Isaac doesn't go this slow if he turns north as forecast....that would mean possibly allison type rains.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
This might take the NAM model...

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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


thank you

You're welcome, always happy to help.
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Quoting DataNerd:



Yep, its now drifiting ssw at about 5.



This is going to be a loooooooooong day for LA.



Where are you getting this info?
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Does anyone have a link to the Fox8 New Orleans stream?


http://www.fox8live.com/

Just copy and paste, not sure why this didn't show up as a link. Sorry
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Quoting odinslightning:


I think what he did is chew on a large percentage of the SAL that was present across the Atlantic Basin....if you look at the SAL maps prior to Isaac pumping the ridge compared to now you can see he ate it....and he stacked up anyway,....in a way i see him as a mixed ice cream cone....the chocolate is the rain/moisture and the vanilla is the dry SAL....and its all swirled together around the eyewall and across the different strata of the atmosphere....

notice how Jim Cantore smelled that burning smell in the air like I said earlier...he said it on tv and i was like finally at least im not fu**in crazy or just smelling my own upper lip....lol

i wonder what the burnt smell was in the air....it may be the chemicals and burn off from the oil and the smell of the dispersements????i dunno but it definately smells different than any hurricane/trop storm i have ever been around....


back outside to see clouds just 30 ft over my head go flying by me real fast....its freakin cool looking but it reminds me of....tornados....oh well, gonna go watch it....brb in a few :)


thats what i was gonna say.....oil and correxit......or that sinkhole.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Huh. I go to work for 4 hours, come back to check up on Isaac and he's still pretty much in the same spot. Not good news. :/
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Quoting DataNerd:



Yep, its now drifiting ssw at about 5.



This is going to be a loooooooooong day for LA.


Tx better watch outtttttt!
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1030. jake436
Preface: Not a met by any means, but a 43 yr old NOLA native, now living in south MS.

It is common for storms to take a right upon landfall. I've heard it attributed to friction, but not sure I buy that. Probably has more to do with the happenstance that it catches a trough/pull. I will say I've never seen one come in from the east and then turn SOUTH for any extended period of time. They all eventually turn right.
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
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I don't know about everyone else but I am quite glad there aren't a ton of ppl on here right now, the badgering, "you're wrongs" and picking on a person's spelling was REALLY grating on my nerves! :)
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Yep, its now drifiting ssw at about 5.



This is going to be a loooooooooong day for LA.

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Quoting odinslightning:



even without real strong winds there is going to be substantial property damage due to Isaac....Water is coming in sideways and is going to pour for days and days....loosening of the soil is going to allow trees to fall on covered property.....trees in la oftentimes root very shallow,......sustained winds of 70-80 gusting over days and days will do considerably more damage to a structure than a quick storm doing 100 gusts.....the wind will rip and tear rip and tear as water tries to pour/blow/whip in.....i do agree with the potential cost of Isaac in the $B's....


Copy that and the pricetag-less suffering and growing in compassion for all touched by Isaac.
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Well.....thats never good.


Last 3 frames, drifting back out to sea apparently.

Link
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I know every1 is happy about him eating a little dry air...but keep in mind how much dry air he has eaten over his life and how he has overcome it....plus, a little dry air isn't going to shock him like it would a normal hurricane, it's just status quo for him......


point is, don't let your guard down....the coastal waters are very very VERY warm...it's so shallow there its the hottest water in the gulf.....
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
Quoting wxchaser97:
It is once the center of the eye(not eyewall) comes ashore then the TC has made landfall.


thank you
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Quoting Reb74:
Here in NWFl, no real rain, just lots of wind. Driest hurricane ever as far as rainfall amounts. Lots of wind-driven salt water but very little fresh. Strange indeed.


tell the folks in south louisiana that.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
Does anyone have a link to the Fox8 New Orleans stream?
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I heard a number around that, I could see even more with what Isaac has done so far. As for the re curve I don't know if that is true or not.


There were several ppl that said that on the comments after several of Dr. M's blogs and I look to see how often those individuals post to determine if I should give their info any credibility or not and that's what I recall....(granted I am sleep deprived and just took a Restoril so not positive! HAHA
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.