Hurricane Isaac continues to organize as it nears landfall

By: Angela Fritz , 9:31 PM GMT on August 28, 2012

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Isaac gained hurricane status this afternoon after hurricane hunters found winds of 76 mph and a minimum central pressure of 975 mb, and continues to become more organized. In their 5pm EDT update, the National Hurricane Center said Isaac has maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, and is moving northwest at 8 mph--a slow down from yesterday at this time. Satellite loops show that Isaac has gained thunderstorm activity on the southeast side, but is battling dry air to the north. Isaac still appears to be forming an eye wall, though is struggling to do so. Winds have been increasing as Isaac approaches, up to 60 mph has been recorded by buoys close to the shore. Winds off Lake Pontchartrain have varied around 35 mph from the northwest this afternoon. So far New Orleans (KMSY) is seeing wind gusts up to 40 mph, with light rain.


Figure 1. Isaac imagery from the high resolution Terra satellite at 12:30pm EDT, just before becoming a hurricane.

Some rain and thunderstorm activity has reached the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with Isaac just over 100 miles southeast of New Orleans. Radar shows thunderstorms from Pensacola to New Orleans. Storm surge has begun to impact the coast, as well, particularly in Mississippi and Louisiana, where reports are that water is "up to cars" in some areas. Many streets are closed in Ocean Springs and Pascagoula, Florida due to surge flooding.

Water levels so far (above mean):

• Shell Beach, LA: 8 feet
• New Canal Station (New Orleans): 2.7 feet
• Bay St. Louis, MS: 5.6 feet
• Pascagoula, MS: 4.4 feet
• Dauphin Island, AL: 3.7 feet

Hurricane Isaac will likely make landfall tonight as a category 1 around midnight CDT, but will still have enough energy and warm water available to maintain hurricane strength for a few hours inland. Isaac will likely continue to strengthen a bit before landfall, but given the large wind field, rapid intensification is unlikely. The storm surge threat could then continue along the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama coasts through mid-afternoon on Wednesday, as winds will continue to blow from the east, and then from south, as the storm moves northwest past New Orleans. Should the peak surge coincide with peak tide, the highest storm surge, anywhere from 6 to 12 feet, is expected in Louisiana and Mississippi. Alabama could see a storm surge around 4 to 8 feet.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast from the HPC through Sunday morning. The lime green bullseye over Gulfport, MS is a value of 15+ inches.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting around 15 inches of rain to fall around Gulfport, Mississippi, and up to 12 inches of rain to fall near New Orleans, Louisiana by Sunday morning. As Isaac tracks north after landfall, it will bring some much-needed rain to the drought-stricken Mississippi Valley region, particularly west of the Mississippi River. While anywhere from 3-5 inches of rain is expected from Arkansas to Indiana by Sunday, and the Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois drought will benefit, this is not a drought buster. The driest parts of the country are in the Central Plains states, and this rain will be too little to have a meaningful impact.

Monitor Hurricane Isaac online:
Track, forecast, and current observations
Radar and weather stations
Satellite
Webcams


Angela

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I believe Isaac's native american name is "Pigpin from Peanuts".....

The air here in Mobile is still relatively dry...very dry considering a tropical system is close to making landfall.....I remember Gustav was a very damp storm in Mobile.....The A/C couldn't keep up with the hot damp air....

Isaac is truly hybrid....and considering his broad low pressure, had he become a truly tropical system this could have been.....devastating....
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132802
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


Boston! LOL


Doing what ?
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:


Boston! LOL


Cantore is stationed in New Orleans.
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TWC Tropical Team with Brian Norcross and Dr. Jeff Masters discussing Hurricane ISAAC's unusual core cycling...is uploading from the Bottom of the Hour just past on TWC.

Will post in around 10 minutes.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132802
Live from Biloxi, MS

And, WU...Thank-you for your support of Portlight!
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About 30 min. old, but rain rates of about 22 mm/hr. just offshore.

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Quoting MississippiWx:
Here's the eye.



The outer eyewall is trying to choke that developing inner eyewall, and has been generally spiraling into the center tightening itself for the last 3-6 hours. RECON is approaching so we are going to see what has transpired soon.
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Looks like Isaac will be the savior for those in drought from the Mississippi River Valley though the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
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Quoting stormchaser19:
Where is Jim Cantore ?


Boston! LOL
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1078
134. TeamLeaderY1 4:54 PM CDT on August 28, 2012

Outstanding..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132802
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I feel that the inner eyewall is giving into the outer eyewall based on radar showing the increased organization of the outer eyewall and little change to the organization of the inner eyewall.

I don't know 19. My eye sees them both closed at end of loop - 1647 cdt. Inner one, tiny.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Here's the eye.



Herrreeeeeeeeeeee's ISAAC.
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you gonna need a bigger boat...

seriously I hope everyone down there will be ok , this one seem pretty large and wet.
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148. CJ5
Quoting Patrap:
Well..seems Miss Nola Roux has gone into German Shepherd Labor with the Stress here..a Few days early.

So..Ill be burling Water now. Be back in a while if able.


Jeez, that sucks. You have had a time this week. At least there was a vacation on the front end.
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15 inches rainfall now predicted right on top of my house.

This "X" is practically a map to my house.

Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting lopaka001:
Pilots Station East, SW Pass, LA 8760922

Barometric Pressure: 977.0 Mb
Winds: 34 mph at 37.0°



Isn't a bit away from Isaac's center?
Which would mean Isaac Central pressure should be estimated aroun 974/3... 85 Mph.
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Here's the eye.

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Angela, you need to update that HPC rainfall graphic for Isaac.

Link
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I think everything along that line between Isaac and the NE blob is in for some serious stormy. And it'll build down again into FL, too, I suspect.

This whole set up is really bizarre. It's, like, how to potentially cause flooding problems all over every state nearby, in 5 easy steps!
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Good thing Isaac decided to wait until just before (suuposedly/hopefully)landfall to start pulling out it's bag of tricks.
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Where is Jim Cantore ?
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Quoting WunderBlogAdmin:
Exactly. Flag them and forget them.




heh heh heh
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5093 Comments: 115945
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The latest GFS has Isaac hugging the coast of Louisiana before making landfall in 36 hrs. Not a good scenario for surge and flooding.

is dat the 20% off africa in the middle of ATL. look like it seems to try to develop and the way that high is another carribean cruiser
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2764
Quoting Patrap:
Well..seems Miss Nola Roux has gone into Labor with the Stress here..a Few days early.

So..Ill be burling Water now. Be back in a while if able.

Wow. I'm off to the gym.
Best hopes for everyone!
See y'all on the other side.
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Quoting lopaka001:
Pilots Station East, SW Pass, LA 8760922

Barometric Pressure: 977.0 Mb
Winds: 34 mph at 37.0



I think we may be a bit deeper than 975 mb at the moment.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11906
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
lol its like the atlantic and e.pacific are in a storm race Isaac Ileana

Atlantic just popped off TD 11, which is Forecasted to form Kirk... BTW

Were still beating the EPAC.
EPAC: 9
ATL: 10.5 <- .5= TD. If TD 11 becomes Kirk, 11.
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Dr. Masters, thank you for mentioning Search and Rescue Team Yankee 1. We are proud to be working with Portlight Strategies inc to a add proactive approach to disasters to Portlight's tool box.

As I right this, part of my team is with Portlight's John Wilbanks in Biloxi, MS. While Chandler "Doc" the team medic (EMT and army medic) and I are at the East Central High School shelter where Doc is the sole medical resource for over 300 people.

We have established a good relationship at the shelter with the American Red Cross volunteers and the Jackson County fire and sheriff personnel who are here.

Also a slight correction, while Yankee 1 has some vets, myself included. The veteran centered response organization is Team Rubicon. TR is a wonderful organization and I am proud to be a member but they have a different mission than Yankee 1,

Yankee 1 is group brought together by the Joplin tornado event. After our ad hoc volunteer search team was demobilized in Joplin we decided to stay together and respond again if needed.

Well, since then we have responded multiple times in multiple states. Our focus is on hard to reach or under-served areas which blends nicely with Portlight's focus on the disabled, mobility impaired and under-served. The Search and Rescue Team Yankee 1 Foundation is a public benefit corporation organized as a 501 (c) 3 in the state of Arkansas.

If anyone wants to help us help them, please give to SAR Team Yankee 1 care of Portlight Strategies (portlight.org) or visit our website at yankeeone.org

Thank you, Jason Belcourt, Yankee 1 team leader
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Quoting Scottcenfla:
Interesting that Isaac only seemed to get it's act somewhat together once it came near shore. Looks like it shrugged off some of the dry air that was being drawn in.

Raises a curiosity that possibly the warm bay/inlet waters could be helping intensify it. Surely that heat content couldn't sustain for long.

Seems I remember a hurricane some years ago traveling from west to east over the everglades here in Florida and actually intensified before hitting the backside of the east coast of Florida, Miami area possibly. The mets at the time mentioned the warm everglades was the reason.

Fay 2008?
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132. WunderBlogAdmin (Admin)
Quoting Unfriendly:
congrats everyone who just replied to isabel --- you just did EXACTLY what he wanted you to do.
Exactly. Flag them and forget them.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The latest GFS has Isaac hugging the coast of Louisiana before making landfall in 36 hrs. Not a good scenario for surge and flooding.



Can you tell where the landfall may actually be?
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KNEW 281721Z 2818/2918 03035G45KT 5SM -RA BKN035 OVC050
FM282000 04040G55KT 2SM RA OVC028
FM290000 05046G58KT 1 1/2SM RA OVC020
FM290500 06055G75KT 1SM +RA OVC018


This would be a challenge to land in... in fact... a Cessna 172 would be going backward with full flaps...
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Isaac is like a big chunk of sammich meat, stuck in between two overly-sized buns. And, it's a wet, soggy sammich at that!



Looking at this steering and latest sfc charts, he almost has to turn more due north, then eventually neast inland.


If you look at a water vapor loop, you can see the left side of the ridge giving way. The easiest way out may lie to the west. I believe that's what the models are sensing - weakness on the west flank of the ridge.
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Quoting Thing342:
Yo dawg, we heard you like eyewalls...
...so we put an eyewall in your eyewall.

While we have seen this before, isn't it characteristic of a MUCH stronger storm to see concentric eyewalls?

Link
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Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11906
Thanks for the updates from the storm, going to be an interesting night for you guys that are out there... Good luck (and stay safe) from Scotland!

PS: Can you people (and you know who you are!) stop quoting the teenage trolls, I really don't want to see their comments, they are pathetic little boys with nothing better to do
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Pilots Station East, SW Pass, LA 8760922

Barometric Pressure: 977.0 Mb
Winds: 34 mph at 37.0°


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Quoting HurricaneIsabel:


It's weakening significantly, Expect a tropical depression landfall.


You are a tool.
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Well..seems Miss Nola Roux has gone into German Shepherd Labor with the Stress here..a Few days early.

So..Ill be burling Water now. Be back in a while if able.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132802
Interesting that Isaac only seemed to get it's act somewhat together once it came near shore. Looks like it shrugged off some of the dry air that was being drawn in.

Raises a curiosity that possibly the warm bay/inlet waters could be helping intensify it. Surely that heat content couldn't sustain for long.

Seems I remember a hurricane some years ago traveling from west to east over the everglades here in Florida and actually intensified before hitting the backside of the east coast of Florida, Miami area possibly. The mets at the time mentioned the warm everglades was the reason.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Oil platform reporting 106 mph gusts.


Yes sir:

Station KMIS
Federal Aviation Administration
Location: 29.296N 88.842W
Date: Tue, 28 Aug 2012 21:35:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (150°) at 56.9 kt gusting to 92.1 kt
Air Temperature: 80.6 F
Dew Point: 77.0 F
Visibility: 0.2 nmi

These kind of winds are going to mix down to the surface in isolated spots.
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just heard on TWC a platform off of buras La(bottom tip of LA) reported 106mph
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2764
For as ragged and disorganized as he's looked over the past week, Isaac got real at the worst time. Be safe to those on the gulf coast
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
I feel that the inner eyewall is giving into the outer eyewall based on radar showing the increased organization of the outer eyewall and little change to the organization of the inner eyewall.



I think you're right, the inner piece just seems to be a short term mesovortex that probably contains extremely strong winds. But the radar image of that 'double eyewall' structure is pretty awesome.
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Things are starting to pick up a little here. Currenly, a steady 25mph wind with gust to about 35, I would say. Still does not have that smell and feel to the air though.
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Oil platform reporting 106 mph gusts.
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The latest GFS has Isaac hugging the coast of Louisiana before making landfall in 36 hrs. Not a good scenario for surge and flooding.

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Quoting weatherganny:

Is Isaac bigger than Gustav? TIA
yes
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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