Isaac makes its final approach towards Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on August 28, 2012

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The winds and water are rising all along the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle as Tropical Storm Isaac makes its final approach. Two hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm are measuring a steadily lowering pressure and increasing winds aloft, but hurricane-force winds have not yet been observed at the surface. The 8:30 am center fix found a pressure of 976 mb, which is very low for a tropical storm. Top surface winds measured with the SFMR instrument were 70 mph, but the plane measured 102 mph at an altitude of 5,000 feet. It's more typical to see surface winds of 85 mph with a storm with these characteristics. Infrared and visible satellite loops and hurricane hunter reports from this morning have shown that Isaac has developed a 25-mile diameter eye, though the eyewall has not yet formed a full circle around the eye. Heavy thunderstorm activity is lacking on the north side, where light wind shear of 5 -10 knots is still pumping some dry air into the circulation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Isaac. Note how dry air has wrapped into the west side of the storm, causing a lack of heavy thunderstorm activity.

Isaac's rains
One of the most remarkable features of Isaac has been the huge spiral band that parked itself along most of the east coast of Florida and remained there for an entire day, despite the fact the center of the storm moved 400 miles away. This rain band was amplified by a weak trough of low pressure along the East Coast, which pulled away from the coast Monday night, taking the band of heavy rain out to sea (except for a few lingering showers near West Palm Beach.) Isaac's heaviest rains fell along a swath from the east coast of Florida near West Palm Beach to the center of the state, just south of Orlando. The 2-day rainfall total of 9.03" at West Palm Beach brought their monthly rainfall total to 22.28", a new August record (old record: 20.12" in 1995.) Vero Beach's 6.48" of rain was a record for any August day. A possible tornado touched down there, damaging 20 mobile homes. In the Keys, rainfall totals as high as 7.94" (at Upper Matecumbe Key) were measured. Heavy rains from Isaac are lingering over Cuba but have ended in Haiti and the Dominican Republic; flash floods in Haiti from Isaac's torrential rains killed at least 24, and two died in the Dominican Republic. The big concern in Haiti is the heavy damage that was done to crops, and the likelihood that the storm's rains will worsen the cholera epidemic that has killed over 7,000 Haitians.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from Miami, Florida radar shows that Isaac has dumped a wide swath of 8+ inches of rain (orange colors) across the state. Rainfall amounts in excess of 20" may have fallen just west of West Palm Beach, though the highest amount reported by a rain gauge was 13.10" at Greenacres in Palm Beach County.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs are fairly unified taking Isaac ashore near Southeast Louisiana late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, but continue to show some differences in what happens after that. Isaac may scoot nearly west-northwest just inland along the coast into Texas, as predicted by the ECMWF model, or head straight inland to the northwest and into Arkansas, as predicted by the GFS model. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model calls for 10 - 20 inches of rain over much of Louisiana. It appears likely that Arkansas will see some heavy rains of up to five inches, which would help put a dent in the exceptional drought conditions there.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Low wind shear of 10 knots or less is likely until landfall, along with very warm ocean temperatures. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that Isaac's upper-level outflow is the strongest we've seen, with a solid outflow channel to the south. These conditions favor continued strengthening of Isaac until landfall. However, we've observed in the past many instances of hurricanes suddenly weakening in the final 12 hours before making landfall along the Central Gulf Coast. Katrina, Gustav, Dennis, Ivan, and Rita all did so. A July 2012 paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by Rosenfeld et al. titled, AEROSOL EFFECTS ON MICROSTRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES, theorizes that this may happen because of the impact of small particles that get pulled into the outer circulation of hurricanes, seeding the clouds. These small particles, primarily from air pollution, serve as the seed around which water condenses, increasing the rain in the outer spiral bands. The increase in rain and heat energy at the periphery of the storm comes at the expense of the eyewall and inner core, where the winds tend to weaken. A detailed modeling study by Khain et al. (2010) of Hurricane Katrina in the final day before landfall was able to reproduce the storm's weakening only when this air pollution effect was included. This impact of small particles on hurricanes is not included in any operational hurricane model.


Figure 3. Tide gauge data from Shell Beach, located in Lake Borgne just east of New Orleans. The green line shows the storm surge. The red line is the storm tide, the height of the water above Mean Sea Level (MSL.)

Storm surge observations from Isaac
Isaac's storm surge has peaked along the west coast of Florida. As I explain in our Storm Surge Tutorial, we are most interested in the storm tide--the height above Mean Sea Level (MSL) of the tide plus the storm surge. The storm tide is the number given in NHC advisories for how much above ground level the ocean will be at the coast. The storm surge is the extra elevation of the water due to wind blowing on the water, and does not include the action of waves on top of the water, nor the tide. Tide gauges are specially constructed so that transient waves do not impact water level measurements. At Cedar Key on the West Florida coast north of Tampa, a storm surge of 3' and storm tide of 3.8' were observed early this morning. These were the highest water levels measured at any tide gauge along the Florida west coast. Higher storm surges are occurring in the Florida Panhandle. As of 9 am EDT, here were the storm surge/storm tide measurements along the Florida Panhandle:

Apalachicola, FL: 3.5' storm surge, 4' storm tide
Panama City, FL: 2.3' storm surge, 3.3' storm tide
Pensacola, FL: 1.5' storm surge, 2.5' storm tide

A storm surge of 3.5 feet was recorded at 10 am EDT at Shell Beach on the east side of New Orleans in Lake Borgne. This site will have one of the highest surge values during Isaac; a storm surge of 9.5' was measured at Shell Beach during Hurricane Gustav in 2008.


Figure 4. Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008 followed a very similar path to Isaac, and brought a storm tide (the combined effect of the storm surge and tidal levels) of up to 14.5' above ground level to the east side of New Orleans. Isaac's surge may be similar, though probably a little less, than Gustav's.


Figure 5. Track of Hurricane Gustav of 2008, which followed a path very similar to that of Isaac's predicted path.

Isaac: similar to Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008 in destructive power?
Isaac is a huge and slow-moving storm, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out 205 miles from the center. Isaac has cut its forward speed down from 14 mph yesterday to 10 mph today, and a large swath of the coast will be subject to high winds and a large storm surge for an usually long period of time for a hurricane--up to 24 hours. Long duration winds are much more damaging than short duration winds, and a long duration storm surge event allows damage to occur during multiple high tide cycles. The long duration storm event will also allow very high rainfall totals, resulting in greater fresh-water flooding problems than usual. As a result, I expect Isaac's to cause more damage than the typical Category 1 hurricane. The 9:30 am EDT Integrated Kinetic Energy analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Isaac's winds near 2.3 on a scale of 0 to 6, but the destructive potential of Isaacs's storm surge was 4.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. For comparison, the storm surge destructive potential of Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008 was rated at 4.2 on a scale of 0 to 6, and the wind destructive potential was 1.1--which is lower than Isaac's, even though Isaac was just a tropical storm at 9:30 am EDT. Gustav brought a storm tide (the combined height of the storm surge and high tide) of 14.5' to the east side of New Orleans, and 11' to Waveland, Mississippi. However, the destructive potential of Isaac's surge may be overrated by this analysis. Wave heights this morning from buoy and ships in Isaac have mostly been below 15', which is quite unimpressive. One ship report to the SE of the storm had a 19' wave height (thanks to meteorologist Steve Gregory for pointing this out.) With only another 12 - 18 hours over water, Isaac likely won't have time for its slowing increasing winds to build up a storm surge that will reach as high as 14', like Gustav did. The official NHC forecast of maximum storm surge height of 12' looks like a good one. The highest rainfall total observed in Gustav was 21" at Larto Lake, Louisiana, and I expect we'll exceed that for Isaac, since the storm is moving more slowly. Gustav spawned 41 tornadoes--21 in Mississippi, 11 in Louisiana, 6 in Florida, 2 in Arkansas, and 1 in Alabama. The strongest tornado was an EF2 in Evangeline Parish, Louisiana. Isaac will likely produce 10+ tornadoes. The total damage from Gustav in the U.S. was $4.5 billion (2012 dollars.) I expect Isaac's damage total will be in the $500 million - $4 billion range.

Invest 97L in the Middle Atlantic
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located in the Middle Atlantic, about 1250 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 40% chance of developing by Thursday morning. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to any land areas.

Another tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Sunday is located just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving west at 15 mph. Several models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression late this week, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Thursday morning. The disturbance could begin to affect the Northern Lesser Antilles as early as Saturday night, though our two best models, the GFS and ECMWF, predict the center of the disturbance will pass a few hundred miles north of the islands. The disturbance could be a long-range threat to Bermuda.

Jeff Masters

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425. BlxMS
GOT TIME FOR LIGHTER MOMENT? Dr. Doom Cantore became a very hot topic here when earlier this week when referred to "Mississippi" as the "land mass" bewteen New Orleans and Mobile. Folks around here took a lot of offense...We call that land mass "home" and Mississippi. Didn;t take long for this song to come out...Very entertaining...Frankly, in MS Isaac is more welcomed than Dr. Doom...Linked here:Link
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730
WFUS54 KLIX 281652
TORLIX
LAC071-103-MSC045-281715-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0046.120828T1652Z-120828T1715Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1152 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SLIDELL...EDEN ISLE...
SOUTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1150 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES EAST OF
PEARLINGTON...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAVELAND...MOVING WEST AT 40
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
CATHERINE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 3017 8946 3018 8948 3017 8956 3014 8958
3014 8963 3007 8968 3002 8986 3015 8989
3016 8985 3012 8984 3011 8980 3017 8975
3024 8987 3024 8991 3028 8992 3032 8943
3023 8941
TIME...MOT...LOC 1652Z 080DEG 36KT 3021 8952



MJH

CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
People:

Ohh it's just a Tropical Storm with 70 mph winds, lets go to the beach to see the waves and feel the wind !!!

then

Ohh it's a Hurricane with 75 mph, lets go home to be safe !!!
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I think I'll need Wunderkidcayman's SW wishcast :)
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yeah but I came onto the blog expecting people to be civil



hey well Taz it is a nicer way of saying "Bulls***", which would for sure be counted as bad language.


Please remember that when you post here you are an ambassador for the Cayman Islands and what you say reflects upon others from these Islands that also post on the blog.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yeah but I came onto the blog expecting people to be civil





Dont expect that. It will never be completely civil Just ignore those who arent. youre giving them what they want by acknowledging them at all. Meanwhile, good luck and prayers to the gulf coast!
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I wounder guys what would happen if Hurricane Isaac rapidly tighten it circulation and he rapidly make a run to strong Cat 2 boarder cat 3

Angry villagers outside your house?
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TOR just east of New Orleans.
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You stay safe down there Patrap. I say that cause I know your not going anywhere!!!!
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WTF WITH PRE 98L NOW PREDICTED TO PASS FAR TO THE NE OF ME ON SUNDAY!
Where is that ridge that caused ISSAC to bring only trace over the N Leewards!!
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Quoting mojofearless:


Pat!!! There you are! You got enough Fresca for the duration?


U betcha
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting opal92nwf:
No one in or West of the Mississippi coastline has any reason whatsoever to wishcast a storm anymore, you all have gotten so many hits in the past six years since 2006 (including part of this year with Isaac). Bash me if you wan't to, but there's no denying that regions in the East-Central/Eastern Gulf have not had a hurricane from 2006 onward, while people in the West-Central/Western Gulf have gotten 5 hurricane impacts with many tropical storms to boot.


You act as if we all want hurricanes to hit the United States. Lol.
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
Looks so close! Get ready Gulf coast!! How close it that center to land point now?
@ 11:20 160 miles away its moving @ 10 mph if that so its going to take a while
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Strong TS or minimal hurricane, the impacts are similar.
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
Just ignore. seems people enjoy getting at you.

yeah but I came onto the blog expecting people to be civil

Quoting Tazmanian:




watch your language


hey well Taz it is a nicer way of saying "Bulls***", which would for sure be counted as bad language.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
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Quoting Patrap:


Pat!!! There you are! You got enough Fresca for the duration?
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It's about FREAKIN' time! Finally, it has made Hurricane status! He did it! Everyone applaud. It's like it is the "under-achiever" of storms! This one should go down in history just because of its struggles. Unreal. Isaac is truly one to remember for this season!
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Quoting PerdidoKeyDarrell:
Just announced, Escambia County Florida schools will be closed Wednesday.
No word on Santa Rosa?
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Panned RIGHT



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
405. MahFL
Quoting LAlurker:
According to radar- the "eyewall" is about to make landfall at the mouth of the river.


The eye will proberbly contract, and landfall is when the center crosses not the eyewall.
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404. yoboi
14 hrs until landfall???
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That not good for me!!!!
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Here's comes the surge...
Live mobile video
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Quoting Melagoo:


direct hit on New Orleans
Looks so close! Get ready Gulf coast!! How close it that center to land point now?
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<
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
No one in or West of the Mississippi coastline has any reason whatsoever to wishcast a storm anymore, you all have gotten so many hits in the past six years since 2006 (including part of this year with Isaac). Bash me if you wan't to, but there's no denying that regions in the East-Central/Eastern Gulf have not had a hurricane from 2006 onward, while people in the West-Central/Western Gulf have gotten 5 hurricane impacts with many tropical storms to boot.
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Tornado warning here in Gulfport.
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direct hit on New Orleans
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Quoting southfla:
Quoting LongGlassTube:


Totally irresponsible for the NHC to call a storm with 976 millibars of pressure a TS.

What is up?

My wife is expected to go to work tomorrow in a nonessential business because it is ONLY a TS.

They are blowing it!

I'm a Fire Fighter and EMS responder here in Ascension Parish. We were told to expect 48 hours of TS force winds and 12 hours of Hurricane force winds within our Parish.....


Clearly you have a right to be upset at the situation, however please reconsider and don't blame the NHC for the obvious poor judgement of your wife's employer. Your city is under a hurricane warning. My employer closes its doors without exception for a hurricane warning. The NHC has been very clear that they expect Isaac to be a hurricane when it comes ashore tonight and dangerous conditions may linger for 24 hours post landfall.

If your wife's employer is irresponsible enough to require non-essential employees to work under those conditions, then it is the employer's fault not the NHC. The NHC has no responsibility to write and implement emergency response policies for businesses, governments or individuals. They provide the information in as understandable and non-jargon laced language as possible.

They provide parameters for flood potential, rain potential and wind strengths. It is up to the people in the path of the storm to respond appropriately. I hope you and your family, and everyone in Isaac's path, will remain safe and that any damage is minimal. Good luck.




The declaration makes all the difference in the world as far as how people will react to this storm.

I've told my wife that she will not got to work tomorrow. Her business which is nonessential has warned all employees that do not show up for work will be forced to take vacation without pay.

We're not that money hungry. She is staying off the roads. I-10 is no where to be tomorrow morning.

Thanks for the well wishes.
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So far for the season 10 Tropical Storms, 4 Hurricanes, and no Major Hurricanes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1152 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SLIDELL...EDEN ISLE...
SOUTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1150 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES EAST OF
PEARLINGTON...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAVELAND...MOVING WEST AT 40
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
CATHERINE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3017 8946 3018 8948 3017 8956 3014 8958
3014 8963 3007 8968 3002 8986 3015 8989
3016 8985 3012 8984 3011 8980 3017 8975
3024 8987 3024 8991 3028 8992 3032 8943
3023 8941
TIME...MOT...LOC 1652Z 080DEG 36KT 3021 8952

$$

MJH


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7839
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


oh Taz I am really sick of this "wishcasting" bullcrap now seriously




watch your language
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
BINGO.

FLASH TRAFFIC


730
WFUS54 KLIX 281652
TORLIX
LAC071-103-MSC045-281715-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0046.120828T1652Z-120828T1715Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1152 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SLIDELL...EDEN ISLE...
SOUTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1150 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES EAST OF
PEARLINGTON...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAVELAND...MOVING WEST AT 40
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
CATHERINE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 3017 8946 3018 8948 3017 8956 3014 8958
3014 8963 3007 8968 3002 8986 3015 8989
3016 8985 3012 8984 3011 8980 3017 8975
3024 8987 3024 8991 3028 8992 3032 8943
3023 8941
TIME...MOT...LOC 1652Z 080DEG 36KT 3021 8952



MJH

CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
391. SLU
Hurricane Isaac

10-4-0

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The pressure gradient's already there, Taz (and others), I still think it's wholly possible for Isaac to achieve category 2 status, he's just doing it backwards. Humberto kept strengthening after landfall, and that's a scary thing. Isaac has room to mix a lot of those upper level winds to the surface, and it seems as though he's finally decided to pull the ace of Spades.

Though, I think it's the Joker, Isaac has a twisted sense of humour.
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1010 am CDT Tuesday Aug 28 2012

Update...
see morning update.
Discussion...

Isaac still prognosticated by TPC to make landfall over southeast Louisiana. The
12z NAM is trending further west with Isaac and it is looking more
and more like the 00z European model (ecmwf). There could be some significant
changes in the forecast package this afternoon if the 12z GFS supports
the the 12z NAM. The NAM is advertising that the inflow for Isaac
will come through east/southeast Texas on Thursday night and
Friday. This band of higher moisture could cause significantly
higher rain chances than is currently projected. The current TPC
track would keep the heavy rain axis east of southeast Texas. 43


Well if we get more than an inch of rain I like my crow Blackened and served over rice.

No Ant activity to report.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


oh Taz I am really sick of this "wishcasting" bullcrap now seriously
Just ignore. seems people enjoy getting at you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
386. 7544
get ready for gas to up
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6858
Quoting Dsntslp:
IMO they are cheering for two reasons.

One, it is generally thought by some that if the storm is labelled as a TS a good many people will not take it as seriously as if it were a hurricane. This is supported by employers that have non essential employees coming into work during this mess and not cancelling, IMO.

Two, I am not sure of this and somebody who knows for sure please correct me and expound on this but the label of hurricane in and of itself means a greater possibility of sustained damages being covered by insurance companies and also may mean that more people, without homeowners coverage, qualify for FEMA assistance after the storm. (Run on sentence, I know, lol).

Long story short, I do believe they are cheering because hurricane status v TS status means that "What's in a name" will now work to the benefit of the general public in the short and long run.


I quite often do damage assessment for FEMA.. It doesn't matter if the storm is a TS or a Hurricane, or something less. There are many factors involved in getting a Federal Declaration but type of storm isn't one of them.
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Tornado warnings near NOLA
TORNADO WARNING
LAC071-103-MSC045-281715-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0046.120828T1652Z-120828T1715Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1152 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SLIDELL...EDEN ISLE...
SOUTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1150 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES EAST OF
PEARLINGTON...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAVELAND...MOVING WEST AT 40
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
CATHERINE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3017 8946 3018 8948 3017 8956 3014 8958
3014 8963 3007 8968 3002 8986 3015 8989
3016 8985 3012 8984 3011 8980 3017 8975
3024 8987 3024 8991 3028 8992 3032 8943
3023 8941
TIME...MOT...LOC 1652Z 080DEG 36KT 3021 8952

$$

MJH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT64 KNHC 281618
TCUAT4

HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1120 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE ISAAC FINALLY ACHIEVES HURRICANE
STATUS...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC HAVE INCREASED
TO 75 MPH...120 KM/H. ON THIS BASIS...ISAAC IS BEING UPGRADED TO
A HURRICANE.

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM CDT...1620 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 88.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 160 MI...250 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN


OK He made it...Now what can we argue about ?,(Lol...)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That inbound Metro Feeder has lotsa flavor in it..as well as some rotation aloft seems too.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
farmers almanac-nothing for the midgulf..I guess the Almanac didnt have any faith in Isaac..

for the east coast..
SEPTEMBER 2012: temperature 70° (4° below avg.); precipitation 1.5" (3" below avg.); Sep 1-9: T-storms, then sunny, cool; Sep 10-15: Hurricane threat; Sep 16-22: Sunny, then t-storms, cool; Sep 23-28: Sunny; cool, then warm; Sep 29-30: T-storms.

Texas
SEPTEMBER 2012: temperature 75° (1° below avg.); precipitation 6" (1" below avg. north, 6" above south); Sep 1-5: Sunny, cool; Sep 6-9: T-storms; Sep 10-14: Scattered t-storms north, hurricane threat south; Sep 15-23: Scattered t-storms, cool; Sep 24-30: Sunny, warm.

Florida
SEPTEMBER 2012: temperature 78° (2° below avg.); precipitation 8" (5" below avg. north, 7" above south); Sep 1-2: Scattered t-storms, warm; Sep 3-8: Hurricane threat; Sep 9-14: Sunny, warm; Sep 15-18: T-storms, then sunny, cool; Sep 19-25: T-storms, then sunny, cool north; t-storms, cool south; Sep 26-30: Sunny, warm north; t-storms south.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just announced, Escambia County Florida schools will be closed Wednesday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Isaac Feeder Bands coming in over my house.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Thank you Taz




welcome
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
Quoting zschmiez:


I work in the insurance industry, and don't know of any company who has a "by definition" hurricane deductible. Most are now named storm deductibles, and even that stipulation is ignored if there is enough damage.

Hurricane deductible is an old term that still sticks around, but means much different now.

If your provider abides by that rule, you need to get a new provider.
Wind deductible
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 397

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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