Isaac makes its final approach towards Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on August 28, 2012

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The winds and water are rising all along the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle as Tropical Storm Isaac makes its final approach. Two hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm are measuring a steadily lowering pressure and increasing winds aloft, but hurricane-force winds have not yet been observed at the surface. The 8:30 am center fix found a pressure of 976 mb, which is very low for a tropical storm. Top surface winds measured with the SFMR instrument were 70 mph, but the plane measured 102 mph at an altitude of 5,000 feet. It's more typical to see surface winds of 85 mph with a storm with these characteristics. Infrared and visible satellite loops and hurricane hunter reports from this morning have shown that Isaac has developed a 25-mile diameter eye, though the eyewall has not yet formed a full circle around the eye. Heavy thunderstorm activity is lacking on the north side, where light wind shear of 5 -10 knots is still pumping some dry air into the circulation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Isaac. Note how dry air has wrapped into the west side of the storm, causing a lack of heavy thunderstorm activity.

Isaac's rains
One of the most remarkable features of Isaac has been the huge spiral band that parked itself along most of the east coast of Florida and remained there for an entire day, despite the fact the center of the storm moved 400 miles away. This rain band was amplified by a weak trough of low pressure along the East Coast, which pulled away from the coast Monday night, taking the band of heavy rain out to sea (except for a few lingering showers near West Palm Beach.) Isaac's heaviest rains fell along a swath from the east coast of Florida near West Palm Beach to the center of the state, just south of Orlando. The 2-day rainfall total of 9.03" at West Palm Beach brought their monthly rainfall total to 22.28", a new August record (old record: 20.12" in 1995.) Vero Beach's 6.48" of rain was a record for any August day. A possible tornado touched down there, damaging 20 mobile homes. In the Keys, rainfall totals as high as 7.94" (at Upper Matecumbe Key) were measured. Heavy rains from Isaac are lingering over Cuba but have ended in Haiti and the Dominican Republic; flash floods in Haiti from Isaac's torrential rains killed at least 24, and two died in the Dominican Republic. The big concern in Haiti is the heavy damage that was done to crops, and the likelihood that the storm's rains will worsen the cholera epidemic that has killed over 7,000 Haitians.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from Miami, Florida radar shows that Isaac has dumped a wide swath of 8+ inches of rain (orange colors) across the state. Rainfall amounts in excess of 20" may have fallen just west of West Palm Beach, though the highest amount reported by a rain gauge was 13.10" at Greenacres in Palm Beach County.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs are fairly unified taking Isaac ashore near Southeast Louisiana late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, but continue to show some differences in what happens after that. Isaac may scoot nearly west-northwest just inland along the coast into Texas, as predicted by the ECMWF model, or head straight inland to the northwest and into Arkansas, as predicted by the GFS model. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model calls for 10 - 20 inches of rain over much of Louisiana. It appears likely that Arkansas will see some heavy rains of up to five inches, which would help put a dent in the exceptional drought conditions there.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Low wind shear of 10 knots or less is likely until landfall, along with very warm ocean temperatures. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that Isaac's upper-level outflow is the strongest we've seen, with a solid outflow channel to the south. These conditions favor continued strengthening of Isaac until landfall. However, we've observed in the past many instances of hurricanes suddenly weakening in the final 12 hours before making landfall along the Central Gulf Coast. Katrina, Gustav, Dennis, Ivan, and Rita all did so. A July 2012 paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by Rosenfeld et al. titled, AEROSOL EFFECTS ON MICROSTRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES, theorizes that this may happen because of the impact of small particles that get pulled into the outer circulation of hurricanes, seeding the clouds. These small particles, primarily from air pollution, serve as the seed around which water condenses, increasing the rain in the outer spiral bands. The increase in rain and heat energy at the periphery of the storm comes at the expense of the eyewall and inner core, where the winds tend to weaken. A detailed modeling study by Khain et al. (2010) of Hurricane Katrina in the final day before landfall was able to reproduce the storm's weakening only when this air pollution effect was included. This impact of small particles on hurricanes is not included in any operational hurricane model.


Figure 3. Tide gauge data from Shell Beach, located in Lake Borgne just east of New Orleans. The green line shows the storm surge. The red line is the storm tide, the height of the water above Mean Sea Level (MSL.)

Storm surge observations from Isaac
Isaac's storm surge has peaked along the west coast of Florida. As I explain in our Storm Surge Tutorial, we are most interested in the storm tide--the height above Mean Sea Level (MSL) of the tide plus the storm surge. The storm tide is the number given in NHC advisories for how much above ground level the ocean will be at the coast. The storm surge is the extra elevation of the water due to wind blowing on the water, and does not include the action of waves on top of the water, nor the tide. Tide gauges are specially constructed so that transient waves do not impact water level measurements. At Cedar Key on the West Florida coast north of Tampa, a storm surge of 3' and storm tide of 3.8' were observed early this morning. These were the highest water levels measured at any tide gauge along the Florida west coast. Higher storm surges are occurring in the Florida Panhandle. As of 9 am EDT, here were the storm surge/storm tide measurements along the Florida Panhandle:

Apalachicola, FL: 3.5' storm surge, 4' storm tide
Panama City, FL: 2.3' storm surge, 3.3' storm tide
Pensacola, FL: 1.5' storm surge, 2.5' storm tide

A storm surge of 3.5 feet was recorded at 10 am EDT at Shell Beach on the east side of New Orleans in Lake Borgne. This site will have one of the highest surge values during Isaac; a storm surge of 9.5' was measured at Shell Beach during Hurricane Gustav in 2008.


Figure 4. Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008 followed a very similar path to Isaac, and brought a storm tide (the combined effect of the storm surge and tidal levels) of up to 14.5' above ground level to the east side of New Orleans. Isaac's surge may be similar, though probably a little less, than Gustav's.


Figure 5. Track of Hurricane Gustav of 2008, which followed a path very similar to that of Isaac's predicted path.

Isaac: similar to Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008 in destructive power?
Isaac is a huge and slow-moving storm, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out 205 miles from the center. Isaac has cut its forward speed down from 14 mph yesterday to 10 mph today, and a large swath of the coast will be subject to high winds and a large storm surge for an usually long period of time for a hurricane--up to 24 hours. Long duration winds are much more damaging than short duration winds, and a long duration storm surge event allows damage to occur during multiple high tide cycles. The long duration storm event will also allow very high rainfall totals, resulting in greater fresh-water flooding problems than usual. As a result, I expect Isaac's to cause more damage than the typical Category 1 hurricane. The 9:30 am EDT Integrated Kinetic Energy analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Isaac's winds near 2.3 on a scale of 0 to 6, but the destructive potential of Isaacs's storm surge was 4.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. For comparison, the storm surge destructive potential of Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008 was rated at 4.2 on a scale of 0 to 6, and the wind destructive potential was 1.1--which is lower than Isaac's, even though Isaac was just a tropical storm at 9:30 am EDT. Gustav brought a storm tide (the combined height of the storm surge and high tide) of 14.5' to the east side of New Orleans, and 11' to Waveland, Mississippi. However, the destructive potential of Isaac's surge may be overrated by this analysis. Wave heights this morning from buoy and ships in Isaac have mostly been below 15', which is quite unimpressive. One ship report to the SE of the storm had a 19' wave height (thanks to meteorologist Steve Gregory for pointing this out.) With only another 12 - 18 hours over water, Isaac likely won't have time for its slowing increasing winds to build up a storm surge that will reach as high as 14', like Gustav did. The official NHC forecast of maximum storm surge height of 12' looks like a good one. The highest rainfall total observed in Gustav was 21" at Larto Lake, Louisiana, and I expect we'll exceed that for Isaac, since the storm is moving more slowly. Gustav spawned 41 tornadoes--21 in Mississippi, 11 in Louisiana, 6 in Florida, 2 in Arkansas, and 1 in Alabama. The strongest tornado was an EF2 in Evangeline Parish, Louisiana. Isaac will likely produce 10+ tornadoes. The total damage from Gustav in the U.S. was $4.5 billion (2012 dollars.) I expect Isaac's damage total will be in the $500 million - $4 billion range.

Invest 97L in the Middle Atlantic
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located in the Middle Atlantic, about 1250 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 40% chance of developing by Thursday morning. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to any land areas.

Another tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Sunday is located just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving west at 15 mph. Several models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression late this week, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Thursday morning. The disturbance could begin to affect the Northern Lesser Antilles as early as Saturday night, though our two best models, the GFS and ECMWF, predict the center of the disturbance will pass a few hundred miles north of the islands. The disturbance could be a long-range threat to Bermuda.

Jeff Masters

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925. HCW
Storm Junkie streaming live with Port Light


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*Rest Assured* Help is on the way. This image only caught a small portion of the staging area, hundreds of electric trucks at the SFL Fair Grounds

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Looks like he wants to go up the Mississippi River!
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


It will be interesting to see how this storm interacts with land. Remember Ernesto? Just as he moved onto shore his eye cleared out was at his peak inland. I am wondering if the friction of the land will help this storm tighten up and bring down those 90 knot winds to the surface. What say you Levi? Or anyone else for that matter?


Don't forget that much of SE Louisiana is water, swamp......from Morgan City to Lafayette, and from New Orleans to LaPlace.
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What do you mean? This wasn't supposed to hit the Cayman Islands?
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mandeville la pressure

1001.3

down three millibars from the morning
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Quoting mobhurricane2011:
Um 7, you forgot alabama


Like I said yesterday, Alabama is always forgotten....lol. People do live in Alabama, not just cows. Moo!
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looks like isaac is trying to tighten up a little more
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Quoting tkeith:
Yeah it's rained here in Kenner every day for three weeks. I'll be shocked if we dont get wide spread power outages....My fence posts aint lookin too spiffy at the moment either :)


Good Luck tkeith, my Sista is on Williams and 12th street over dere.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128252
water on the northshore is steady. as it moves more west id expect major increases in surge

the storm looks good now
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Soooo you want death an destruction?.


Nah, he just keeps wishing for a TS or cat1 to hit wherever it is he lives for a bunch of rain (N Antilles?!). I'm pretty sure all his posts I've seen is him wishing them to him LOL

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Quoting GetReal:


Ditto here on the WestBank... My barometer reading is now 29.45 inches.


West Bank here also....Gretna
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Looks like Isaac has started crawling.
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Some comments and suggestions to smoothe and demystify the insurance claim process:

Make sure your agent has your current phone number(s). When you call in your claim, either to your agent or to a claim center number, designate which of your phone numbers should be primary so that your adjuster doesn't have to play "telephone tag".

If you have both wind and flood damage, you likely (but not always) will end up with two different adjusters.

If you were paid for damage from Gustav (for example), and did not get around to fixing it, don't claim it again. Insurance fraud is almost always a felony, and adjusters have access to the photos taken after the last storm you experienced.

Try not to throw anything away until the adjuster has done his/her inspection. If you MUST throw stuff away (food spoilage, for instance) document it with photos and receipts.

Personal property loss inventories should be completed before the adjuster arrives. Receipts are very helpful, especially with big-ticket items. Include model and serial numbers. If you are claiming damage to electronics/appliances due to lightning strike, get an electrician's affidavit to submit to your adjuster.

It is a myth that adjusters will try to "lowball" a claim. You will likely be working with an independent adjuster who gets paid on a fee schedule (the higher the estimate, the bigger the adjuster's fee). That being said, the experience level of adjusters varies tremendously. Have a list of all known damage ready for the adjuster's arrival, discuss the list (or do a quick walk-around), and then let the adjuster work without interruptions.

A "scope" of damage should be agreed with the adjuster before he/she leaves. It is common for hidden problems to appear as repairs are being made; these are typically addressed in the form of supplemental claims ("supplements"). Do not expect the adjuster to, for instance, open walls and ceilings to check for damp insulation.

Start "mitigating" (preventing further) damage as soon as possible (this is a requirement stated in your policy). Examples: Tarping a roof that is now missing shingles, drying carpets. Legitimate mitigation expenses should be documented with photos and receipts, and the adjuster will add these expenses to the estimate.

Tree debris:
This can be a contentious issue. Generally, a policy will pay to remove trees/limbs from an insured structure (home, shop, shed, fences, driveway ingress/egress) but only to the extent that access is restored to effect repairs. There may or not be coverage to actually move debris to the curb and/or haul it off. There may be limited coverage for a tree struck by lightning, but in general there is no coverage for the value of trees (or any landscaping, for that matter). Certain limits apply in every case. Beware of tree contractors who state that "everything" is covered. "Everything" probably is not. Adjusters are issued tree debris guidelines for every storm.

Shop around for contractors as soon as possible. Check with your agent to see if your insurance company has a "preferred contractor" program (adjusters generally are not encouraged to extend this information, as it could create a conflict-of-interest). Remember that after every large insurance event, contractors from all over the country swarm to stricken areas. Some are qualified, some are not. Some pay local businesses to use their name temporarily. Ask lots of questions. Don't fall for the "We will absorb your deductible" sales pitch. This is a fraudulent practice and could land you in hotter water than Isaac experienced...much hotter.

It is common for insureds to politely offer food/drink/[other] to adjusters. Acceptance of these offers violates the adjuster's code of ethics, so consider preventing embarrassment by refraining from making such offers.

If the insurance company drops the ball you may file a complaint with your state department of insurance (this will get their attention in a heartbeat). Use this option with discretion, remembering that large events necessarily create chaos and logjams in the claims-handling process. For serious disputes, your policy mentions further steps (often some sort of arbitration). Worst case would be a public adjuster or attorney, due to their fees and/or timeliness; however, these are always an option. Just don't be a jerk and threaten your adjuster with legal action if you desire cooperation and a speedy resolution. Most unfavorable decisions are out of the adjuster's hands.

Above all, be patient. There are only so many hours in a day. In my case, I am generally working seven days a week up to 18 hours a day until my claim count diminishes. Don't create a s***storm by complaining to your agent over trivial stuff, as this creates a cascade of phone calls that wastes a lot of time. Larger claims are generally addressed first, so your sixty feet of downed fencing and small area of flooring damaged by water under the door are not going to be a huge priority. Try to be flexible with appointments and leave a large window for the adjuster, as he or she will have more than one inspection scheduled on any given day, and it is impossible to know in advance how long the inspection prior to yours will take.
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Quoting HopquickSteve:

Wow, the SC blob is about the size of Isaac proper now! eep. NC is next, I guess.
Already affecting NC. May move into VA soon.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
Quoting Unfriendly:


Those are storm tracks there sparky. Storms usually go in straight lines. It's not HAARP, it's not chemtrails.


What I think is odd, however, is the way some of the storms this season have been wettest on the left side (as looking in direction the storm is going)...when the "dirty" side of the storm is usually on the right. I wonder what the deal is on that.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I got to say, NHC did a GREAT job yet again nailing the forecast, both path and strength. Strength the last two or three days had been right on, even though they had 105 mph at one point.


I agree. It's good to see how accurate the GFS was, too. It has been solid this year.

I would rather the NHC err on the side of caution as they did this time since that will save more lives. They are here to serve us, and making sure the right people prepare is more important than technical minutiae when all is said and done.

A lot of people were yelling that they were wrong and the GFS was right... which ended up being true (so far.) But I'm good with the fact that all of us all the way to Panama City got to field test our Hurricane plans.
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Quoting nola70119:


There has been no drought here, just the opposite, the soil is really saturated already...


Where are you?

I've had to water the grass several times to keep it from dying in the front yard...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting ILwthrfan:


It will be interesting to see how this storm interacts with land. Remember Ernesto? Just as he moved onto shore his eye cleared out was at his peak inland. I am wondering if the friction of the land will help this storm tighten up and bring down those 90 knot winds to the surface. What say you Levi? Or anyone else for that matter?
Thinking the same thing to myself. I doubt Isaac will develop into a 90 knot storm but additional strengthening into lets say a 90 mph storm I think is not out of the question. Really starting to look good on satellite and radar.
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Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
.. Flood Watch in effect through Wednesday morning...

The National Weather Service in Newport/Morehead City has issued
a

* Flood Watch for a portion of eastern North Carolina...
including the following areas... Beaufort... Carteret... Craven...
Duplin... Greene... Jones... Lenoir... Mainland Hyde... Onslow...
Outer Banks Dare... Outer Banks Hyde... Pamlico and Pitt.
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Quoting nola70119:
What bothers me is that the storm should be feeling the land, but actually has the best presentation its ever had.....most of SE Louisiana is swamp, really almost until Baton Rouge.


Re-post from earlier this blog:

Over the past 30 years SE LA has sustained severe land losses to coastal erosion. Many who are not familiar with the geography of LA, looking at the satellite pics may be under the mistaken impression that Isaac is going to make landfall, when he makes contact with the MS river delta. That would be a mistake. Much of the "land areas" depicted on the satellite pic outlines are actually open waters now.

The remaining area south of NOLA are patchy salt water marshes, and bays. Isaac will have to get as far north as 29.6N and almost 90W before finally reach hard real land.

Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8871
Quoting ncstorm:
Texas, Mississippi, LA, Florida, NC and SC, .six states currently being affected by Isaac..


Wow, the SC blob is about the size of Isaac proper now! eep. NC is next, I guess.
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Indianrivguy !!! Hallelujuh! Been so long. So glad you're well. Guess I was a little long winded, but brought results! In case you forgot, I'm just east of Pensacola, so out of danger here. Saw how the bands today worked up your way. What a trip y'all had. I don't think that feature to correspond works like it did, so guess settle with knowing you ok, and thanks.
Coop
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Pilot Station in SW Pass about 49nm NW of last
Center fix Been Blowing close to Hurricane force
at times this morning..

Link
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1068
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I got to say, NHC did a GREAT job yet again nailing the forecast, both path and strength. Strength the last two or three days had been right on, even though they had 105 mph at one point.


It will be interesting to see how this storm interacts with land. Remember Ernesto? Just as he moved onto shore his eye cleared out was at his peak inland. I am wondering if the friction of the land will help this storm tighten up and bring down those 90 knot winds to the surface. What say you Levi? Or anyone else for that matter?
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897. BlxMS
FWIW...Current conditions in BLX...VERY calm..Only two feeders so far and both extremenly minimal. Only a T of rain so far...Winds only 5-10 at 280...May have had one gust to 15-20. Biloxi Bay around 4 feet above normal, but coming off low tide. Pressure 29.97 and falling. Radar indicates deterioration probably within the next hour....Actually, been execeptionally eerie. I am on the south side of Biloxi Bay in west BLX. Will update later if it seems useful to anyone. To all affected, stay safe.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I got to say, NHC did a GREAT job yet again nailing the forecast, both path and strength. Strength the last two or three days had been right on, even though they had 105 mph at one point.
This can be said about a few storms this year but if Isaac had more time he could have been more of a monster then he already is. Really starting to organize now with land friction.
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Getting some serious rain now in Gautier MS. Some wind as well and the occasional branch snapping here and there.
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Quoting Carnoustie:
everyone stay safe in the bigeasy and surrounding area,s,best wishes from Scotland.


You wouldn't happen to live in the Granite City? Just met a fella from there, an oil platorm safety auditor who had to cut his visit short because of Isaac.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Well winds are gusting up to 36mph and we got a little rain band came through. Patrap GetReal and nola70119, and the rest of our gulf caost buddies on here. if you dont see us in a few hours, u should know why. But prayer and blessings will protect over our families and each other
Godspeed to all..keep us here posted when possible..:)
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Isaac looks pretty good right now! Anymore flights in. It is almost on the coast. Looks that way anyway.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Well winds are gusting up to 36mph and we got a little rain band came through. Patrap GetReal and nola70119, and the rest of our gulf caost buddies on here. if you dont see us in a few hours, u should know why. But prayer and blessings will protect over our families and each other


Thanks, same here, we got through Katrina, this shouldn't be too bad...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Lotta times that can be due to friction from land. Pushes the system around.
Jamaica has always been blessed with this. I've heard friction attributed and feel that's true. But, there sometimes seems to be an interaction with the cont. shelf. Not trying to make it more than it is. Just noting what I consider an interesting anomaly.
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I made a blog with pics of the flooding in Wellington if interested.

Prayers still needed for them and surrounding communities as they are predicting 2" of rain with this new band that has set up shop.

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Quoting Thing342:

Big, dark clouds from that offshoot band here in SE Virginia


edited..again..thanks VA is included..everyone please stay safe!!!!!!!!
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Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8871
What bothers me is that the storm should be feeling the land, but actually has the best presentation its ever had.....most of SE Louisiana is swamp, really almost until Baton Rouge.
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Quoting tkeith:
Yeah it's rained here in Kenner every day for three weeks. I'll be shocked if we dont get wide spread power outages....My fence posts aint lookin too spiffy at the moment either :)
If/when your fences come down leave'em until after hurricane season. 1999 Floyd blew them all down here on the space coast, and those that got put back were blown down again by Irene a month later.

Heh, I can remember in my old neighborhood fences were considered unneighborly, and no one had any until the guy next door to my family put one up :P
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
i bet yall isaac wont get retired!
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Quoting SLU:
28/1745 UTC 28.6N 88.9W T4.0/4.0 ISAAC -- Atlantic
28/1745 UTC 23.7N 43.5W T2.0/2.0 97L -- Atlantic
That makes it a T.D right?.Still don't have these things down pack.Lol.
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Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


So...what if that happens & this storm veers West, past the Houma, LA area....skirts the coast toward Beaumont/Sabine Pass? By the time it reached Houma, Houston/Galveston will have written it off as nothing much. Yet, theoretically, it could swing back out to sea near Galveston, trapping almost everyone in place in the Houston/Galv. area if it built back up again, then could go ashore as a cat. 4 house-wrecker.

NOT very likely to happen, but still within the potential real of "hurricane reality". Such a scenario could be catastrophic. These storms are dangerous. Fortunately, this Isaac seems to be more of a playful kitten compared to many past storms. (Whew!)


lmao, I'd buy that for a dollar
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The Neast of Isaac will have Miss and Al catching it.
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s Brian chasing Isaac? Does anyone have a link?
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Quoting ncstorm:
anyone got a boat?




Have friends in Charleston showing pictures of people kayaking down market street. We are totally getting flooded here in Georgetown!
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Well winds are gusting up to 36mph and we got a little rain band came through. Patrap GetReal and nola70119, and the rest of our gulf caost buddies on here. if you dont see us in a few hours, u should know why. But prayer and blessings will protect over our families and each other
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2610
I got to say, NHC did a GREAT job yet again nailing the forecast, both path and strength. Strength the last two or three days had been right on, even though they had 105 mph at one point.
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Quoting mobhurricane2011:
Um 7, you forgot alabama


Geography - Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina - that would be 8 states.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
875. 7544
be safe everyone in isaccs path and my peeps in biloxi and gulfport
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.