Western Caribbean development

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:51 PM GMT on November 03, 2005

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An intense area of deep convection has developed off the northeast coast of Honduras this morning. This area has some impressive cold cloud-top temperatures and the beginnings of some upper level outflow to the north. Wind shear is about 10 knots over the area, which may allow some slow development as the disturbance moves west along the northern coast of Honduras over the next day or so. The disturbance is probably too close to land to allow development into a tropical depression, and the wind shear is not forecasted to drop any further. However, this disturbance will bring very heavy rains to northeast Honduras today. This area is still reeling from the heavy rains from Hurricane Beta that washed out bridges and cut roads. Thousands of people are still in shelters in this area, which is cut off from the rest of the country. Fortunately, no deaths or injuries have been attributed to Hurricane Beta's floods and winds.

Jeff Masters

Add Insult to Injury (Terri)
As if a hurricane wasn't enough, Mother Nature sent 5" of rain to Key West, flooding the island all over again.
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104. armacjm
6:25 AM GMT on November 06, 2005
Here's an interesting article about the clouds in Wilma right before it hit the Naples area, where the clouds formed the number 2....at first I thought it was a hoax or something 'doctored' up by a local news station. However, I've gone to a couple of other sites, like the National Weather Service radar and saw the number 2 in the radar. Freaky!

http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051105/WEATHER01/511050550/1075
103. billsfaninsofla
3:43 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
thanks for the information WX... we were just praying for that back side of the storm to get done... scary... and the ordeal has only just begun..
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5527
102. wxmanfla
1:58 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Hi Everyone,

I am not sure if Dr. Jeff has already posted my Wilma information that I sent him or a link to my web page, but here they are below. I am located in Boynton Beach, Palm Beach County, FL.

Here are my storm statistics:

Front Eyewall:
9:03 a.m.
Wind SSE
Sustained wind 77 mph
Gust to 103 mph

Back Eyewall:
11:54 a.m.
Wind West
Sustained wind 90 mph
Gust to 118 mph

Lowest Pressure 28.15" / 953 mb at 9:58 a.m.

Total Rainfall 1.54"

Of interest, I also show a temperature and dew point drop of 8 degrees in the 30 minutes prior to the strongest winds at 11:54 a.m. This was caused by the cold front interacting with the hurricane to increase the winds on the back side of the storm.

I have a Davis weather station that actually survived the storm, but had lots of damage to my home, such as roof, fence, screen enclosure, satellite dish, trees, etc. My front door even blew in at the height of the storm.

Here is a link to my data and graphs:

Link
101. seflagamma
1:44 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Good Friday Morning from Broward County Florida,
Slowly, verrry slowly, a few more people are getting power back, but still over 200,000 in Broward are without (better than the 900,000+ originally without). Only a few communities are still without water. But things are still a mess. Sure hope this season is over; can't wait for Nov 30th to appear on my calendar.
Gamma

I mentioned this on Lefty's blog but forgot to do so on this one. CoconutCreek started a blog before the hurricane to have a place for us in Fl to check in after the storm to let us all know we are ok. Still waiting to hear from a couple of people. But now this blog has become our place to get or give information to help each other or to vent about some of the frustrations. But mostly to communicate to others that are in the same fix around here. Just in case some of you on this blog that live in this area need to check it out.

How about all of that National Coverage we are getting here in South Florida! LOL, no one in the rest of the USA even knows we had a hurricane!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40902
100. 7daysnopowerfrancis
1:39 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
Hi,

I am currently gazing at my computer in my classroom with no students because we don't have school until Monday (I work in Palm Beach County.) I really wouldn't know about the lack of coverage (probably due to lack of deaths) because I don't have cable. I am not complaining because I had power restored in 3 days and no significant damage. It was quite a storm, and the backside was worse. Unfortunately, unlike us stormjunkies, America has tired of hurricane damage (been there done that), and unless we were hit with a 5, apparently a 3 isn't great enough to deem us worthy of news coverage.

On a brighter note, it seems the tropics have quieted down. That is good thing.
Member Since: October 17, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 387
99. roatangardener
12:53 PM GMT on November 04, 2005
well its friday and its still raining. spoke to someone on the coast last night near Trujillo and he was just returning from doing a boat rescue of a family that was washed out by a flash flood. they found them way down stream - all ok. is it possible this mess to our east will develop? as usual we cant seem to get a mention on anyone's radar.. except here. so if anyone can give us the real story - we here on the Bay Islands would all appreciate it.
Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 54 Comments: 198
98. snowboy
8:17 AM GMT on November 04, 2005
things are REALLY looking blobby in the sw Caribbean tonight - sorry for using THAT word again Coco...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
97. snowboy
4:27 AM GMT on November 04, 2005
Here's the NHC Tropical Outlook, which is no longer ruling out TS development in the sw Caribbean (where convection is blossoming this evening):
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST THU NOV 3 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE
DIMINISHED. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND
AREAS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
95. Girlnascar
2:55 AM GMT on November 04, 2005
To all Fellow Floridians:

I cannot believe the lack of media coverage on the mess that Wilma left behind. I know all too well the mess Florida is in from Wilma and what was left over from 2004. Unless you live here, people that don't live here in other parts of the US & World truly believe is all over! I am a property claims cat handling adjuster and I know first hand that ALL IS NOT WELL AND WHAT KIND OF HELL WE ARE STILL LIVING IN FROM THE HURRICANES OF 2004-05. what a mess this state is in. There's a big Nascar race in Homestead in two weeks, wonder if this has something to do with the big hush hush on how bad things are down south Florida. Don't want to loose those big tourist dollars, by telling the truth about the situation. Wonder what the tourists at Disney and those coming for the race are thinking those blue tarps are for? Early Christmas Decorations or Something? We still have our fair share of ole blue tarps here in the Central Florida area from Charley last year for gosh sake! Even the local stations here concentrate on Katrina and the political fallout. What a bunch of crap. Didn't realize hurricanes are political platforms now.
94. squeak
2:00 AM GMT on November 04, 2005
Just got home from the grocery...eating dinner now (yum! hummus!) and there is another TWD which does mention the second feature:

A SMALL-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N84W

Looking at the sat imagery now however, there isn't anything anymore at 9N77W, like there was at around 5pm.
92. squeak
11:31 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Snowboy...I haven't looked since this morning, and I just decided to take a look before I headed out...and it appears that formed in the last three hours. It is not the ULL that is still sitting N of Colombia, but something new. Some vorticity assoc w/it and I am not skilled enough to tell, but seems some LLC is there. Trying to remember when the next TWD comes out, because nothing of course in the last one which was around 1pm I think.

Also...anticyclonic circ in the upper level winds just N of Honduras, again not enough knowledge to know what that means, just learning to read the products and the sat images. But I don't think it could be indicative of development, everything else considered?
91. Skyepony (Mod)
11:22 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Been watchin the area all week~ about 5 days ago one model had some development forming but changed it's mind. The models today call for verying degrees of rain for the area persisting beyond 144hrs, but nothing in the form of circulation developing.

Saw this on Naples debri clean up. I'm not sure if Brevard played the FEMA money game or if the rules changed from last year. Brevard county allowed locals to transform pick-ups, lawn business trailers or any type of trailer (2x4's & plywood was the most popular). They temperarily registered with the dump & trailers were spray painted with cubic yards they held. Then our locals made a profit by picking up lawn debri, trees & were payed by the county when they brought it to the dump. Worked well, sorry to see those out of work with a truck & or trailer can't profit like the locals did here last year.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
90. CoconutCreekFLA
11:08 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
EEK! I just popped in and saw the word "blob". I hereby suggest that we officially ban the word "blob". No more blobs... virgin blobs, puerto rico blobs, or bahamas blobs.
89. snowboy
11:01 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Has anyone noticed the major blob in the area of the SW Caribbean where Beta formed?
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
88. billsfaninsofla
10:28 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Coco .. good to hear your little one seems to be dealing with Wilma quite well, my kids are older, my 11 yr old has been such a trooper throughout.. She's learned how to tarp a roof and make homemade sand bags... Not complained even when waiting for 4 hrs for gas... I know that's nothing big, but 11 days is a long time.. and kids missed school pictures, a school dance, City sponsored Halloween party, Halloween itself, not to mention friend's b-day party..that's alot of disappointment for kids.. most I know seem to be handling it OK..
Still no power mostly east of St Rd 7 it seems... seems like a corridor starting down near Dania spreading up through Ft Lauderdale, Wilton Manors, Oakland Park, Pompano, LHP, Deerfield.. saw FPL workers around the corner this afternoon
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5527
87. SWFLKR
8:31 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
To all who have been touched by the 2005 devestation the depresion and just overall, you can't beleive it happened feeling will last awhile. I live in Punta Gorda and its been what going on 15 months since Charley tore up our town. Some days I can hear the sounds of the hosue being torn apart like it was going on right then and others you go a day or two without thinking about it. We still have hundreds of people in FEMA homes here and plenty of buildings stil waiting to be rebuilt, finished or demolished. I just came home from the grocery store and watched a concrete block home ebeing torn down and put in the big demolition dumpster. There is still debris laying on the roads and in the fields in some areas too. We had just moved to Punta Gorda from Broward County 2 months before we got hit by Charley. I wanted to runaway and go back. Even though I hated living in Broward County for 12 yrs, after Charley it looked inviting. Now all of my friends in the Ft Lauderdale area are suffering. When it gets more normal I want to send one of them over to our old house to see how it made out through Wilma. My mom had just sold a condo in Marco Island and we all have many great memeories of it. I just found out yesterday it sustained alot of damage. I think its time to leave Florida while I am still alive :)
86. seflagamma
8:24 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Question, is Broward County the only one left that still has not gotten school open yet? I know Miami Dade and I think Palm Beach went to school today. Any other counties out there still with no school?
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40902
85. seflagamma
8:23 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Ogal, my son, daughter in law and grandson had a great weekend in Disney; thanks for asking. Saw them Halloween night when they came over to trick or treat no one was really out; parents were just taking the kids to visit family members, not really a door to door thing this year.
They made a photo show from their pictures of him and every Disney Character, finally he is old enough to really like them instead of being
Now back to no power at their house; son is an electriciation and they do have a generator so not too bad. He was "hunkered down" and never got scared; but he really did not have any big hurting damage, nor was his life really turned upside down so hopefully he will not have any long lasting effects from this.

Rest of you, like what I am seeing posted. Tropics taking a little break would be good; we do not want to see any forms starting up to become "Gamma"...LOL

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40902
84. Skyepony (Mod)
8:16 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
*countries ~like Hondures.

Coco~ Last year my little one was only a year. She was upset for Frances, by Jeanne she knew the drill. This year she requested we get hurricane ball out & generally enjoyed Wilma. We had watched this beach ball fly 90mph down the road, over a house & after Frances found it wedged against the house. I think they really adjust better than some adults. I went through hurricanes as a kid. The 1st one I was scard cause I didn't know what to expect, till I stood in a clear eye at sunset. I really like playing in them now. Mom sent us out to play in many TD & TS as a kid. Think of how the old timers in the late 60's got worried when the canes really slowed down. It's all about adjusting & I think in this case hurricane proofing your property as much as possible!

My tip of the week: You lose soffit from your eves, did wind get in your attic? If so caulk your house from the inside(vents, molding, skylights any creavis to be found)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
83. code1
8:06 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Good for her Coco. I have a friend who is a clinical psychologist, and she said that is the best option for a parent to do with young children. Do not try to hide the devastation, as they can see it for themselves and when Momma and Daddy are upset, so are the children. Drawing is a good outlet and something that you can discuss together as a family.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
82. Pensacola21
8:05 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Very good point Coco...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
81. CoconutCreekFLA
7:56 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
I wonder about the kids. Whenever there is a storm coming we have tried to make it fun to do the prep. She know even asks for her "hurricane donuts" - something we normally don't have in the house. So, she has had a pretty good attitude about things but yesterday she drew picture after picture of hurricanes. She even drew a few trees and told me how you turn the page sideways to show hurricane trees. She's 4. I'm sure there are a lot of scared children out there who can't understand how something like the home around you which you always felt safe in is now a pile of rubble.
80. Skyepony (Mod)
7:54 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Thought I'd check out the models for them (well your home is most likely on this map as well) ~ percipitation accumulated forcast for next 72 hours~don't forget to scroll right & hit forward to play the loop ~the canadian ~the gfs (144 hrs not as scary for our friends) ~nogaps 144hr ~ the ukmet 144 hrs

Checked out the navy gfs & nogaps where you could see easier each day & place ~ looked real wet with a day break or so in there for 144 hours out. Showed heavyier amount in the short term with light to dark green with a day break for both counties on different days for the long run.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
79. mendomama
7:49 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
I really hope that the red cross and fema brought in some mental health workers to help people cope with this. My mother in law is helping a friend process insurance claims, she is not even from around there and she is having a hard time coping with the disaster.
78. stormydee
7:44 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Wow, just caught up on what everyone is posting...
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
77. Pensacola21
7:41 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Man Squeak - I feel so sorry for all over there.. How sad..
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
76. squeak
7:34 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
code1 -- I know, a pensacolan from another board, when Dennis came, he was so p*ssed because he had damage from Dennis, and they had not taken away the debris from Ivan!

Back to MS -- the attitude of people there was just incredible. Almost none of the people left, like inLA...they just started right away doing what had to be done to get back, outside help come or not. Gov Barbour seems really committed to getting the coast back. It's the state's livelihood, it literally is; the casinoes on the coast made a huge difference for the first time in the state's income. People from other parts of the country don't understand how poor most everyone is there.

I should have come over here all these months. You guys know how to hang out.
75. squeak
7:28 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
I'm sorry I meant a reply for BaysIslandInn.

There may not be a chance for a TC to form, but no question that there's still rain there, and they don't need it.
74. squeak
7:26 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
OK here is what you can tell Roatan, something concrete: the upper-level winds aren't favorable for development, and there is NO vorticity assoc with the trop wave or with the assoc convection occuring to the N of it (N of 15N) near Honduras, that's an important consideration, and even with all that, if anything managed to form there, it would just be directed away towards eastern Cuba :-)

A couple times a week I try to send some emails to my friend in Biloxi to try to get him to cheer up. Sometimes it's hard to come up with things, but a lot of the time I'm successful. Trying to get his mind off it.

My brother, starting about two weeks ago, he just closed up and doesn't want to talk much or email hardly at all. I keep trying with him. He had a really hard time, being in the Sheriff's Dept and the EOC for Kat...from the Sun he deployed until Tues, no sleep at all, just doing Search&Rescue, then only a few hours here or there through Friday, doing, you know, Search&Recovery, because they had to get that taken care of as quickly as possible (although it was another two weeks before they found most everyone). His wife works there too, she was at the EOC when the roof blew off, and they had to grab what equipment they could, and carry it through floodwater, hf winds across the street to the courthouse! They are both having difficulties dealing with it now.
73. FLCrackerGirl
7:17 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Again, My Apologies for Long Post...Hope Dr Master's Sees It!
Member Since: August 12, 2004 Posts: 47 Comments: 597
72. FLCrackerGirl
7:14 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Sorry, Long Post...from multiple blogs
you heart just goes out to these folks. And the media is acting like Beta was no big deal.

Posted By: BayIslandsInn at 5:49 PM EST on November 01, 2005
Are you sure we don't have a hurricane brewing here?
I'm sitting here on the beach on Roatan. FYI this means I'm on a Bay island right off the northern coast of Honduras where that red blob is on the sat photos right now. I've lived here for seven years and watched storms brew out there pretty often this time of year.

It's been raining in buckets all day--winds are high and gusty. Sky is VERY dark. Rain and winds come in waves that are VERY strong--then it's just dead calm.

This feels just like Wilma did coming in a few weeks ago. Actually the rain has been heavier the past three days than it was with Wilma.

Are you sure we're not brewing her evil sister right off my beach out there?

How can you be so sure there's no chance for a TS to form tonight? Could you explain this to me better? Please? 'Cause my suddenly aching, steel-plated leg just isn't buying it yet.

Thanks in advance for your attention to our little stormy spot in the sea!

Waylon Sims,Owner
Coral Beach Inn/Roatan, B.I.
www.cbeachinn.com

Posted by: roatangardener, 12:36 PM EST on November 02, 2005
I know Jeff said the rain was over in Honduras...?? NOT. it has been pouring for the last 2 days.. the reports say Beta has dissapated in the Pacific but she left behind this line of clouds to face off with a cold front.. the two have been dancing over The Bay Islands and the north coast of Honduras. We currently have flooding rain here on the island. Really... when can we expect this to give up its grip on us?

Posted By: roatangardener at 1:02 PM EST on November 02, 2005. (from tropicalking's blog)

nobody else seems to be able to get us any correct weather info... when you see the rain stopping here on Roatan Island.. just off the north coast of Honduras. cant seem to shake the remnants that beta left up here on the north coast and this cold front... it must have rained 10 inches since last night alone... help


Posted By: CalabashKelly at 9:34 AM EST on November 03, 2005.
Good Morning! It's Thursday AM - it is still pouring rain over here in Calabash Bight. My husband has dengue (since last Thursday) and I've been bailing out the speed boat every hour. Any news at all on when they expect this rain to stop? Our phone has been out since Wilma, we're water accessible only (getting more so by the minute!), and we're not hearing any reports at all on this weather. All I know is what I see outside my window and it looks like it has every day for the past two weeks - sheets of rain!
Member Since: August 12, 2004 Posts: 47 Comments: 597
71. CoconutCreekFLA
7:14 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
I can see that. Broward hasn't been hit strongly in over 50 years so we had so much lush foliage. Also, a lot of areas really went to town with the landscaping. Everything was so beautiful. Now so much is down and the trees that survived look like they are dying. I know that it isn't that important compared to other things, it's just sad is all and will take years to get back to normal.
70. Pensacola21
7:12 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Dennis wasn't that bad... Milton did get hit hard though...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
69. code1
7:08 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
21, same here as far as housing (affordable that is) $2000+ for a 3 bedroom ranch is an outrage! Our beaches are some better here though, but still very battered. So sad to drive across Okaloosa Island now. All of the beautiful dunes just gone!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
68. Pensacola21
7:06 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Not to be selfish or whatever you wanna call it, but people do not realize how bad that storm really was... Everyone one that I've talked to from out of town is like, "Oh Ivan wasn't that bad, blah,blah,blah"... I hate to say it, but it was that bad...

Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
67. Pensacola21
7:03 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Code- You are right about that!! Our beaches aren't the same.. It still looks bad.. Also, you cannot find a house for rent here to save your life!!!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
66. Pensacola21
7:00 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Squeek - That's awful!!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
65. code1
6:59 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
I hate to be one of the "doomsayers", but there is still destruction in the panhandle from Ivan, almost 14 months later. Don't know if it is insurance issues, personal finance or what. But, do know that all affected by the most recent storms need to not only get through each day, but to prepare for a very long time, before their homes and area looks the same. Some locations will never be the same again.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
64. Pensacola21
6:58 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
I am glad you are okay Coconut!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
63. CoconutCreekFLA
6:56 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Wow, squeak. Thanks for reminding me that it could be much much worse. The fixes will take forever. There are still people up in the W. Palm area with tarps on their roofs from LAST YEAR's storms. In the paper here they mentioned that b/c of lack of supply it could take a year to get roof tiles. I suspect it will get worse as rains start coming in and more roofs start to leak. In the past few days a bunch of properties (I think it is about 2500) have been condemned. All these people are on the street. Affordable housing is a huge problem here (you can't get a house under $350k) this will probably just drive prices even higher. A lot of rental communities have done condo conversions so finding rental property won't be easy either.
62. squeak
6:51 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
My family and friends on MS Gulf Coast...yes, everyone is continually falling into and out of depression, because almost the entire coast still looks like a bomb went off, two months later. My brother, since his house was destroyed by flooding, just working on all his days off, because he told me he doesn't have any place to go, no place to sit and relax, what would he do on a day off. My friend with the airy open slab facing the Gulf in Biloxi, says he drove along hwy 90 a ways this past weekend, but there was nothing there, not a building.

It's very difficult for small-knit communities, where people are used to a lot of interaction and used to places to meet and socialize. My mother told me she couldn't believe how funny it was that everyone would go meet each other at the site where they were handing out emergency supplies, just to catch up on news.

What I think is horrible is winter coming on and people still living in tents on their slabs, my mother told me there's a lot even in Jackson County doing that. I don't know where the others live. My brother and his wife, a woman is letting them stay in her extra room, the bed has a footboard and so my brother has to sleep on the diagonal! There are still some ungodly number of people waiting for FEMA trailers, thousands and thousands. In late Sep I calculated it would take them 9-11 mos to get them all distributed, and even though the pace has increased, it appears that isn't really too far off the mark!
61. snowboy
6:40 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Coco, the Caribbean looks like it's still percolating away, so I don't think we're out of the woods yet. It would REALLY be nice if the multiple record-setting Beta was the last big storm though.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
60. CoconutCreekFLA
6:40 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Okay, don't know what I was unconsciously writing....

"I will keep my mind and see if it shows up in the next couple of days"

ha ha ha...
59. CoconutCreekFLA
6:39 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Yeah, right, code1. Can anyone say hurricane in spain?!?!?!?! It's been a crazy year. Discovery channel had a show on this hurricane season. I really shouldn't be watching this stuff. Ugh...
58. CoconutCreekFLA
6:37 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Thanks for the link. It looks like they issue these at the beginning of each month. I will keep my mind and see if one shows up in the next couple of days.
57. code1
6:37 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Good thing though Coco. Saw a map of the SST's for the gulf this morning. We are cooling down fast. Harder for something to develop here. Never say never with this season though!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
56. CoconutCreekFLA
6:35 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Thanks, squeak. I feel like I have lived in a cave since Wilma. I hope it's done b/c I am quite tired of it all. I have never been in a hurricane directly before and didn't realize how much it screws regular life up until now. Even though we had minimal structural damage, the whole world is upside down. Utilities down, can barely drive anywhere b/c of debris and downed traffic lights, it's just a mess. It seems like everyone is depressed. I can't even imagine what it would be like in a cat 4 or 5.
55. squeak
6:35 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Coco, my response was to your prev post.

Experts, hmmm...here's a link to Dr. Grey, I think his overall forecast still leaves some room for more, but I don't think they do a Nov-specific forecast.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/
54. squeak
6:31 PM GMT on November 03, 2005
Well, Alpha and Beta brewed since Wilma, and 92L (although while I was taking a mental health break and not looking, I think it got goblin'd up on Halloween by an ULL).

The Caribbean still looks like it isn't done yet, just generally speaking, even if there isn't anything cooking, even on the back burner, right now. Because of that, I think we will still see something before the official close of the season...now whether it's something "of substance" is another question (and whether what I think is of any value is...another question!). Wait until next week.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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