Isaac approaching hurricane strength

By: Angela Fritz , 9:14 PM GMT on August 27, 2012

Share this Blog
58
+

Isaac is walking the line of hurricane status this afternoon after a hurricane hunter mission investigated the storm and found winds of 80+ mph with the SFMR instrument, which looks down at the surface from the plane and estimates what wind speeds are. This instrument has a notoriously rough time in doing so when there's heavy rain, and since the strongest winds were recorded coinciding with the strongest rain, you can imagine that this region of high wind speed could be suspect. The hurricane hunter mission is still in the storm, so I imagine they will issue a special update if needed. Currently the best estimate of wind speed within the storm is 70 mph. Isaac's pressure has been dropping today as well and is now 981 mb. Isaac is moving northwest at 12 mph--no change since this morning. Satellite loops show that Isaac remains large, though asymmetric, with most of the strong thunderstorm activity on the west and southwest side. Isaac's southeast side continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, which could help to moderate Isaac's intensity as it approaches the coast.

An oil platform in the northern Gulf of Mexico is reporting sustained winds from the north-northeast at 40 mph this afternoon. A buoy west of Tampa, Florida is recording sustained winds around 30 mph, and platforms south of Louisiana are recording winds from 35-40 mph. The widespread heavy rain of yesterday has lightened up in Florida, but a strong line of thunderstorms in one of Isaac's outer bands is training northward along and offshore of the east coast of Florida, affecting everyone from Miami to Jacksonville.

This afternoon the AP reported that Isaac's death toll in Haiti jumped to 19, which puts Isaac's total death count at 21. It appears most of the deaths in Haiti were due to collapsing structures.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Isaac around 3pm EDT on Monday.

Track forecast:
Models seem to be coming into better agreement today on where Isaac will make landfall, closing in on Louisiana and New Orleans as most likely landfall point. The ECMWF, HWRF, and UKMET all suggest New Orleans as the landfall location. The GFS is only slightly west of that. The GFDL is the farthest west, predicting landfall near the Louisiana-Texas border. Landfall timing remains Tuesday night. Beyond landfall, Isaac is expected to move north toward the Midwest through the rest of this week, however, models are showing that the system will likely slow down around landfall time, prolonging impacts like surge and inland flooding.

Intensity forecast:
The closer Isaac gets to landfall without having formed an eye, the better it is for intensity at landfall. Isaac has strengthened only modestly in the past 24 hours, and is still struggling with a less-than-conducive atmospheric environment. The HWRF remains on the high end of the intensity spectrum, suggesting Isaac will be a weak category 2 upon landfall. Other models suggest it will be a strong category 1, but the difference is splitting hairs. The National Hurricane Center's official forecast is for Isaac to continue strengthening over the next day, reaching category 2 at landfall.


Figure 2. Tide gauge data from St. Petersburg, Florida. The green line shows the storm surge. As Isaac's counterclockwise winds blew offshore this morning, water levels feel two feet at St. Petersburg. The winds switched to onshore this afternoon as the center of Isaac moved more to the northwest, bringing a storm surge of two feet to the city.

Storm surge observations from Isaac
This morning, as Isaac's counter-clockwise winds brought offshore winds to the Tampa/St. Petersburg area, ocean waters fell two feet along the coast. This afternoon, winds have shifted to blow onshore, and a two foot storm surge has been observed at Naples, Fort Meyers, and St. Petersburg on the west coast of Florida. Water levels have also begun to rise along the coast of Louisiana, with a storm surge of 1.5 feet already occurring at Shell Beach on the east side of New Orleans in Lake Borgne.

Angela and Jeff

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 754 - 704

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76Blog Index

TWC stole Dr. Masters from us :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:


Curved Band...

okay, comma effect?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What are the coastal tides for the next 36 hours ??
NOLA to Mobile (Mobeel for you Alabamians)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


You know, if what you are showing is accurate it took a jog to the north or NNW which puts MS LA border on it's sights. Euro is being proved right I would say.


Link

... here is the link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Isaac wants put everything together right now the Dry air is his big issue....Let's see what the D-MAX does with him
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JGreco:



wow and they just dropped the warnings for the extreme western panhandle from pcola-destin....wonder if this might be a slight mistake...


Still have TS warnings. I agree that it might be a bit too early to drop hurricane warning, but it's looking better for us by the hour.

I will note that the marinas in Pcola emptied out over the weekend. I work right across the street from the Palafox St. marinas, and it was eerie to see them almost empty.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting odinslightning:
could the slight tug of the polar pull from the shortwave up north cause further slowing and start to turn the eye more northward?

alabama would need to watch out, though
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
747. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Pinhole Eye?



Curved Band...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
10mph

Still slowing.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening all, sorry, came home and turned on the tv and came here and the first thing I hear is Dr. Master's talking about Issac taking a Gustav track.

Things are heating up here near Fort Polk, no water or regular bread to be found here or the surrounding towns. My son went into town to get just a few 'extras' as we are already prepared and Walmart marked down their 'fancy' bread when regular was gone.

This is our new weather alert.
As Tropical Storm Isaac Moves Closer...The Threat For Sustained
High Winds Is Likely To Increase. The Latest Forecast Is For
Winds To Remain Below Tropical Storm Force. However...A Slight
Jog To The West May Put Sustained Tropical Storm Winds Into The
Area From Lake Charles To Fort Polk To Alexandria.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomballTXPride:
HUGE shift to the East for the GFDL.


Not quite a huge shift just from western la to eastern la...if it was al/fl then thats a huge shift!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still battling the dry air to the east. Maybe cat 2 at best at landfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still just a TS. This thing can not get its act together!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Isaac has always been a night bloomer

I expect later he will start his "night moves"


I mentioned that earlier and was properly corrected that last night wasn't favorable to him.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why We're Staying

A number of people have expressed surprise or dismay at the number of New Orleanians who are not leaving. There are several reasons for this, but primarily it is tied to former Mayor's Ray Nagin's poorly executed phased return policy.

Under this policy after Gustav (hardly a disaster for New Orleans) people were denied the ability to return and secure their homes from any damage on the theory that we couldn't possibly get by without full restoration of Cox Digital and a chance for the beer to get cold at Rouse's Supermarket.

We know how to get buy without power and with a boil water order. We're not going to grab a downed power line. We're not children, and the older of us have experience of this back to Betsy. Even the lead editorialist of the Times-Picayune (writing in a personal column) announced he would not leave for a mandatory evacuation order unless he thought it prudent and the phased return regime was eliminated.

It didn't help that FEMA went on national television promising to cover people's hotel bills, etc. during the whole phased return thing and then reneged on that promise.

We all watched anxiously during Gustav as the lake battered at the east side seawall of the Industrial Canal as a heroic few men secured a loose barge. Everything held.

We're not all throwing hurricane parties. We all learned that lesson from the people on the coast who died during Camille, thank you very much. People are hunkering down, well supplied (if they can afford it at the end of the month) in houses secured as best they can. We are following the directives of our local officials to shelter in place.

We are the survivors. We are the people who came home. We are not easily giving up what we have reclaimed.

The Tragedy of St. Bernard

-- Mark Folse
ToulouseStreet.net
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Doctor Jeff is on the TV Weather Channel now, next appearance 8:55
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxNerdVA:
I'm beginning to think that Isaac is just going to be a big rainmaker, and not much else.



Fortunately if Issac works its way towards the midwest, it could possibly relive the extreme drought there. Unfortunately Issac would cause flash floods there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting interstatelover7165:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 272351
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
700 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

...ISAAC EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE SOON...SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE
AND FLOOD THREAT FROM RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 86.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE AUCILLA RIVER
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF SABINE PASS TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
A SLIGHT DECREASE IS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL MOVE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AIR
FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 981 MB...28.97
INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...6 TO 12 FT
* ALABAMA...6 TO 9 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST INCLUDING APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED STORM MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE EXTREME WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA COASTLINE AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
very much dangerous storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
could the slight tug of the polar pull from the shortwave up north cause further slowing and start to turn the eye more northward?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting flcanes:

why does it take 10,000 plus $ to use it?


There are sites where you can pay and are able to view the data, but you are not permitted to redistribute it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Assuming that rate continues. If you average out the next 36 hours of ups and downs, it's possible, especially since it still has a warm eddy to cross and SHIPS has been suggesting shear under 7 knots in that region for the last 4 days.


GFDL initialized about 3mb too weak, so when you adjust it's value for landfall, you get 960mb for landfall as well.

Adjust GFDL down by 3mb since it was about 3mb high to start.

Adjust HWRF UP 12 mb since it was 11/12mb too low to star.

Linear extrapolate real current pressure by dropping 1mb per hour...


This is converging nicely...

Adjusted HWRF, adjusted GFDL, and linear extrapolation all converge at about 960mb landfall...


Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
It is well defined end of story...back tonight!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Melagoo:


You know, if what you are showing is accurate it took a jog to the north or NNW which puts MS LA border on it's sights. Euro is being proved right I would say.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting flcanes:

no about what?


LaPorte- said we can dream for a storm.
I say No No No
Member Since: Posts: Comments:




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmod:
The data center, in Boulder, Colo., reported Monday that the extent of Arctic sea ice shrank to 1.58 million square miles on Sunday. That breaks the old record of 1.61 million square miles from 2007. Figures are based on satellite records dating back to 1979.

The ice has been melting unusually rapidly this summer: On average, 38,000 square miles of ice has been melting per day since June, an area about the size of Indiana each day.http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/globalwar ming/story/2012-08-27/arctic-ice-shrinks/57349212/ 1

in only three years the arctic will be ice-less....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 272351
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
700 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

...ISAAC EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE SOON...SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE
AND FLOOD THREAT FROM RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 86.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE AUCILLA RIVER
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF SABINE PASS TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
A SLIGHT DECREASE IS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL MOVE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AIR
FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 981 MB...28.97
INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...6 TO 12 FT
* ALABAMA...6 TO 9 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST INCLUDING APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED STORM MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE EXTREME WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA COASTLINE AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FL1980:
I wish the media would stop over hyping this storm. It will be a weak category best. Heavy rainfall will be the issue but this storm does not and will not live up to this ridiculous hype it is getting.

I agree. That's why I don't utilize the media for my tropical weather/hurricane updates and haven't for years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


That's awful. Must be reading the plains high closing in. Could sure happen though. Bubba! :(

yes, and then what might happen if the pumping station is overwhelmed...
you know what i mean 7 years to the day
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
721. wxmod
"The data center, in Boulder, Colo., reported Monday that the extent of Arctic sea ice shrank to 1.58 million square miles on Sunday. That breaks the old record of 1.61 million square miles from 2007. Figures are based on satellite records dating back to 1979.

The ice has been melting unusually rapidly this summer: On average, 38,000 square miles of ice has been melting per day since June, an area about the size of Indiana each day."
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/globalwar ming/story/2012-08-27/arctic-ice-shrinks/57349212/ 1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:


Not just downtown! I lived here then. But Allison also went over LA, MS, all the way up to PA producing heavy rains.


Yes, she was a huge rainmaker
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
12z GFS ENSEMBLE at 254HR



Are you serious another one welcome to the peak of hurricane season!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


$$$$$

why does it take 10,000 plus $ to use it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nola70119:
GFS stalls Issac out over Louisiana for a few days....


That's awful. Must be reading the plains high closing in. Could sure happen though. Bubba! :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


Allison flooded downtown Houston something terrible.


Not just downtown! I lived here then. But Allison also went over LA, MS, all the way up to PA producing heavy rains.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Storm ISAAC

...ISAAC EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE SOON...
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND FLOOD THREAT FROM RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

7:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 27
Location: 26.7N 86.5W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Caner:
Well, i will say this for it... It is definitely moistening it's environment...

It still has 24 hours, lets see whether or not it manages to moisten the dry air around it enough to center itself.. if so, we may see cat 2.


Doubt it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LPStormspotter:


No No No!

no about what?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gnshpdude:
FYI the ECMWF sucks for not providing their model with the rest of the spagetti models. Anyone know what the issue is!!


$$$$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Did Dr. Masters just say Issac is to take a Gustav track??

Sadly up, might not be as strong but surge and rain will be Isaac's biggest threat.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Half the storm is organizing and the other half is ragged sort of like two face from batman.
yeah! that's it.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 397
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah he said a similar track with a similar storm surge. He also said, he doesn't think Isaac will become a Hurricane tonight, probably tomorrow morning.


Thanks, I was really hoping I'd heard wrong and was afraid to rewind to hear it again. I hope it was a mistake. Gustav was not fun, not as bad as or Ike, but...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
20+inch i say it at 26inch!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Gotta look at the big picture, Geek. Um, I mean, Nerd.

lol
o_o
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LaPorteTX:

We can dream


No No No!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 754 - 704

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron