Isaac approaching hurricane strength

By: Angela Fritz , 9:14 PM GMT on August 27, 2012

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Isaac is walking the line of hurricane status this afternoon after a hurricane hunter mission investigated the storm and found winds of 80+ mph with the SFMR instrument, which looks down at the surface from the plane and estimates what wind speeds are. This instrument has a notoriously rough time in doing so when there's heavy rain, and since the strongest winds were recorded coinciding with the strongest rain, you can imagine that this region of high wind speed could be suspect. The hurricane hunter mission is still in the storm, so I imagine they will issue a special update if needed. Currently the best estimate of wind speed within the storm is 70 mph. Isaac's pressure has been dropping today as well and is now 981 mb. Isaac is moving northwest at 12 mph--no change since this morning. Satellite loops show that Isaac remains large, though asymmetric, with most of the strong thunderstorm activity on the west and southwest side. Isaac's southeast side continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, which could help to moderate Isaac's intensity as it approaches the coast.

An oil platform in the northern Gulf of Mexico is reporting sustained winds from the north-northeast at 40 mph this afternoon. A buoy west of Tampa, Florida is recording sustained winds around 30 mph, and platforms south of Louisiana are recording winds from 35-40 mph. The widespread heavy rain of yesterday has lightened up in Florida, but a strong line of thunderstorms in one of Isaac's outer bands is training northward along and offshore of the east coast of Florida, affecting everyone from Miami to Jacksonville.

This afternoon the AP reported that Isaac's death toll in Haiti jumped to 19, which puts Isaac's total death count at 21. It appears most of the deaths in Haiti were due to collapsing structures.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Isaac around 3pm EDT on Monday.

Track forecast:
Models seem to be coming into better agreement today on where Isaac will make landfall, closing in on Louisiana and New Orleans as most likely landfall point. The ECMWF, HWRF, and UKMET all suggest New Orleans as the landfall location. The GFS is only slightly west of that. The GFDL is the farthest west, predicting landfall near the Louisiana-Texas border. Landfall timing remains Tuesday night. Beyond landfall, Isaac is expected to move north toward the Midwest through the rest of this week, however, models are showing that the system will likely slow down around landfall time, prolonging impacts like surge and inland flooding.

Intensity forecast:
The closer Isaac gets to landfall without having formed an eye, the better it is for intensity at landfall. Isaac has strengthened only modestly in the past 24 hours, and is still struggling with a less-than-conducive atmospheric environment. The HWRF remains on the high end of the intensity spectrum, suggesting Isaac will be a weak category 2 upon landfall. Other models suggest it will be a strong category 1, but the difference is splitting hairs. The National Hurricane Center's official forecast is for Isaac to continue strengthening over the next day, reaching category 2 at landfall.


Figure 2. Tide gauge data from St. Petersburg, Florida. The green line shows the storm surge. As Isaac's counterclockwise winds blew offshore this morning, water levels feel two feet at St. Petersburg. The winds switched to onshore this afternoon as the center of Isaac moved more to the northwest, bringing a storm surge of two feet to the city.

Storm surge observations from Isaac
This morning, as Isaac's counter-clockwise winds brought offshore winds to the Tampa/St. Petersburg area, ocean waters fell two feet along the coast. This afternoon, winds have shifted to blow onshore, and a two foot storm surge has been observed at Naples, Fort Meyers, and St. Petersburg on the west coast of Florida. Water levels have also begun to rise along the coast of Louisiana, with a storm surge of 1.5 feet already occurring at Shell Beach on the east side of New Orleans in Lake Borgne.

Angela and Jeff

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Quoting Felix2007:
How ironic that a storm that was once moving at 23mph has now crawled to the pace of a snail.


Two days ago GFS said this was going to happen. It was off on track by about 1 degree N though.


This is going to be pretty nasty once the eye passes to our west and starts dumping tens of inches of rain on NOLA and the Northshore and Livingston Parishes.

If it gets far enough west and floods the Amite basin too, then it could be very wide spread river flooding.


Another thing, since the Mississippi is so low from the early melt and the drought in the tributaries in the northern states and central plains states, the storm surge is going to screw up the fresh water environment.

there was already a salt water wedge moving upstream in the Mississippi just due to normal high tides, and that was over a week ago.

A really high storm surge with this track might push salt water all the way back up to Baton Rouge, or maybe at least half way there, since the river level is only like 4 feet at Baton Rouge last I heard...


Anyway, with this kind of forward speed we are going to see very wide spread 10 inch or greater totals, I think.
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3503. GetReal
Station KVOA
Federal Aviation Administration
Location: 29.229N 87.781W
Date: Tue, 28 Aug 2012 14:25:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (110°) at 60.0 kt gusting to 66.0 kt
Air Temperature: 80.6 F
Dew Point: 75.2 F
Visibility: 1.3 nmi
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8806
STILL not a hurricane

10:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 28
Location: 28.1°N 88.5°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 976 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3501. Levi32
They didn't upgrade Isaac. Unbelievable.
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Still not a hurricane...wtf?
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000
WTNT24 KNHC 281458
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED EAST OF DESTIN
FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA
* MORGAN CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 88.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 150SW 130NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 88.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 88.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.8N 89.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.7N 90.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.5N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 32.0N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 35.0N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 38.5N 90.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 41.0N 86.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 88.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114709
3498. HarryMc
11AM Isaac is still a Tropical Storm
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3497. JeffM
LOL Still not a hurricane
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3496. keisa90
Things getting a little tense in here this morning...
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3495. acl8610
Still a TS @ 11am
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3494. tkeith
Quoting presslord:
Cool live video here right now...Link
I think SJ looks a little smarter now Press...not any better, but a little smarter :)
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8923
No cane

70mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
storm pro, the lake is normal level.

this northeast windsare throuwing it to the south shore

it should gradually rise as the windshits

and eventually slosh it back up here witht he south wind
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting sar2401:


In the end, I think the damage and certainly greatest rainfall will have been experienced in south and central Florida. The giant blob which caused all your troubles has pulled away from the coast and is now headed north and appears ot by trying to head inland over the Carolinas. We just don't have the same situation y'all have had. I'm sure we'll get some more rain from some feeder bands of Isaac once he comes ashore but this looks like 2-3 inches of rain in cnetral AL, which we really need.


Can't speak to 'the Carolinas" ...as there's no such place...but in South Carolina....specifically St Johns Yacht Harbor near Charleston....we're gettin' hammered...have been all morning...
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Still a TS.
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3489. sar2401
Quoting islander101010:
ace.is.wierd.isacc.deserves.more..long.lasting.la rg e.area.ext.ext...


What the heck are you talking about?
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Radar shows inner eyewall/core died due to dry air entrainment. They may not upgrade after all...

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i cant wait any more move faster nhc move faster
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114709
The tension builds...
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I have streaming video on my site from New Orleans news and a couple chasers -
Link
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3484. Levi32
Quoting pipelines:
Levi,

What do you think the deal with Isaac is? Do you ever remember seeing this happen before? Pressure keeps dropping but it's doing it without a complete eyewall. I can't remember ever seeing a TC drop this low without a complete eyewall. The COC doesn't even have a solid COD over it. Whatever method of strengthening Isaac is using is not typical of normal tropical cyclones.....at least in this hemisphere.


It's the extremely favorable upper-level pattern allowing evacuation of air from the storm area. The pressure is therefore falling but the integrated dry air is not allowing a complete eyewall to close off. We've seen plenty of Cat 1 and Cat 2 hurricanes without a closed wall. Only major hurricanes have clear, well-defined eyes as a general rule.
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"When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored."

No more personal attacks, please! Admins need to start pulling out the ban-hammer. :/
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Gonna be piling some water into the prone areas man

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Quoting reedzone:
Alright then, label me JFV, I am officially a troll.. Will try to get banned many times and keep coming back.


Reed, just let it roll off your back. I enjoy reading your posts. Your one of the few still on here from way back.

Too bad Destin J isnt back on here.
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Quoting reedzone:


I have been saying I was wrong about Isaac not passing 85W but people on here seethe to mock me here when I ultimately admit I was wrong.


Maybe take off the sunglasses, then everyone will take you more seriously... I mean it's a Tropical Cyclone Blog not just another day at the beach... back to the weather now
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3478. Patrap
..earlier


Tropical Storm ISAAC Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

US Watch/Warning

000
WTNT34 KNHC 281149
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
700 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND ISAAC NEARLY A HURRICANE...
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOOD THREAT TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 88.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE AUCILLA RIVER
* MORGAN CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE LOUISANA COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ISAAC IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE
AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...6 TO 12 FT
* ALABAMA...4 TO 8 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST INCLUDING APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA IN LOUISIANA BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST BY TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES...IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING.

TORNADOES...TORNADOES MAY OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA COASTLINE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Friend over on St. Andrews Bay, Panama City Beach says they are up about 4 feet... Here only about 1 1/2 feet but still rising.
Quoting Patrap:


The forecast calls for

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...6 TO 12 FT
* ALABAMA...4 TO 8 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST INCLUDING APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
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New Orleans television live streaming:

http://www.wwltv.com/live-stream/exempt
http://www.wdsu.com/weather/hurricanes/Watch-Live -WDSU-Isaac-coverage/-/12848220/16272606/-/61f1wq/ -/index.html
http://www.fox8live.com/category/235642/watch-fox 8live
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3475. Levi32
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


Can the dry air be ingested and expelled before landfall? Looking at the water vapor imagery I dont forsee dry air becomming an issue from this point on?


Isaac has it integrated into his circulation and hasn't been able to get rid of it. Strengthening will occur until the eye crosses the coastline, but thankfully it will be limited by the dry air that's still in the core. This could have been a major hurricane otherwise.
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3474. ncstorm
Quoting reedzone:


I have been saying I was wrong about Isaac not passing 85W but people on here seethe to mock me here when I ultimately admit I was wrong.


actually everyone has been wrong about this storm including the NHC..dont worry about it Reed..its all a learning experience even with the experts..
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Quoting islander101010:
ace.is.wierd.isacc.deserves.more..long.lasting.la rg e.area.ext.ext...


ACE is fine as it is because it wasn't a strong storm. Should overtake Gordon for the highest ACE so far though.
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Cool live video here right now...Link
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I believe Stewart's writing the advisory, so that's a good thing.
If Stewarts writing the advisory then a) a good discussion is in store and b) a really good chance of Isaac being a hurricane.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
3470. sar2401
Quoting kwgirl:
Once the storm starts pulling North you will probably feel the worse side. As someone said on here, the Florida newscasters said the storm was over then we got our worst rains and winds. The winds just started lying down today in the keys, but if you look at satelitte, we are still getting weather from Isaac being pulled over us. It's a big lopsided storm. Key West was on the "dry" side at first. Yesterday we had surge in the streets after he passed us by. Don't write it off yet and if it is nothing in your area, count your blessings.


In the end, I think the damage and certainly greatest rainfall will have been experienced in south and central Florida. The giant blob which caused all your troubles has pulled away from the coast and is now headed north and appears ot by trying to head inland over the Carolinas. We just don't have the same situation y'all have had. I'm sure we'll get some more rain from some feeder bands of Isaac once he comes ashore but this looks like 2-3 inches of rain in central AL, which we really need.
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Quoting depalma13:


If the levees break, than New Orleans should be abandoned forever. This is a Tropical Storm/barely Cat 1 Hurricane. It is not a life or death situation. It's time for everyone to stop panicing because of a little water and and wind.



You say it's not a life or death situation ? and then you added to stop panicking because of little water and wind. WOW, with all due respect, I think you haven't experience a TD, TS or a H before.
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3468. Patrap
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Quoting schistkicker:
Isaac must be pushing up a large surge... trolls are getting flooded out from under their bridges and up onto the blog. :-/

+1 :)
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Alright then, label me JFV, I am officially a troll.. Will try to get banned many times and keep coming back.
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3465. Patrap
Quoting StormPro:

Hey Pat...mandeville here. Where would I find a good prediction of the surge level here? TIA


The forecast calls for

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...6 TO 12 FT
* ALABAMA...4 TO 8 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST INCLUDING APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
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ace.is.wierd.isacc.deserves.more..long.lasting.larg e.area.ext.ext...
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Quoting hurricanehanna:
the word "ignore" is right next the word "quote" and much easier to use. :)


Oh there it is!!!
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Quoting kidd5433:


so you are saying you were Wrong?


I have been saying I was wrong about Isaac not passing 85W but people on here seethe to mock me here when I ultimately admit I was wrong.
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Looking nice on visible. Dry air might not be much of a problem now.
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Quoting ryang:
What's with all these trolls this morning? -_-


There just trying to start trouble. I've been steady - them. Hopefully they will be gone soon. We don't need this right know. There STUPID for trolling.

sheri
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I believe Stewart's writing the advisory, so that's a good thing.


consider it a hurricane:)
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting pipelines:
Levi,

What do you think the deal with Isaac is? Do you ever remember seeing this happen before? Pressure keeps dropping but it's doing it without a complete eyewall. I can't remember ever seeing a TC drop this low without a complete eyewall. The COC doesn't even have a solid COD over it. Whatever method of strengthening Isaac is using is not typical of normal tropical cyclones.....at least in this hemisphere.


2012?
jk,acutally its been intermittently having a CDO and only lost it partially a few times, and it can deepen, but without the eyewall and being such a large storm, the winds never caught up, especially as the dry air kept getting in
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3457. GetReal


There is currently towering monster sized convection in the NE quad.... On the SW quad, where dry air was try to penetrate the eye there is also new convection that is quickly closing off the SW eye wall.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8806
3456. ncstorm
we have already received 2.50 inches of rain this morning from Isaac from those feeder bands..As I said earlier this week, wind will not be the story with Isaac but flooding..

we are under a flood advisory but they are contemplating on upgrading to a flood watch..we've already had so much rain the past two weeks but this is just tiresome now..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Yes indeed Taz..just completed the last of all that and the rain has started my friend.

Will update here when we can..until we cant.

Im on first watch as 2 are Sleeping as this is going to be a LONG event.

A weather Alert Radio is a MUST as that's the fastest way to get TVS warnings real time.

Thanks for the concern Taz.

NOLA is ready..

Our motto,,,mostly heard among us Local's..wide and far,

"Never Again".




You have to be like Dr. Masters now and you can't go on vacation during hurricane season.
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Watch Isaac still not become a hurricane.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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