Isaac approaching hurricane strength

By: Angela Fritz , 9:14 PM GMT on August 27, 2012

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Isaac is walking the line of hurricane status this afternoon after a hurricane hunter mission investigated the storm and found winds of 80+ mph with the SFMR instrument, which looks down at the surface from the plane and estimates what wind speeds are. This instrument has a notoriously rough time in doing so when there's heavy rain, and since the strongest winds were recorded coinciding with the strongest rain, you can imagine that this region of high wind speed could be suspect. The hurricane hunter mission is still in the storm, so I imagine they will issue a special update if needed. Currently the best estimate of wind speed within the storm is 70 mph. Isaac's pressure has been dropping today as well and is now 981 mb. Isaac is moving northwest at 12 mph--no change since this morning. Satellite loops show that Isaac remains large, though asymmetric, with most of the strong thunderstorm activity on the west and southwest side. Isaac's southeast side continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, which could help to moderate Isaac's intensity as it approaches the coast.

An oil platform in the northern Gulf of Mexico is reporting sustained winds from the north-northeast at 40 mph this afternoon. A buoy west of Tampa, Florida is recording sustained winds around 30 mph, and platforms south of Louisiana are recording winds from 35-40 mph. The widespread heavy rain of yesterday has lightened up in Florida, but a strong line of thunderstorms in one of Isaac's outer bands is training northward along and offshore of the east coast of Florida, affecting everyone from Miami to Jacksonville.

This afternoon the AP reported that Isaac's death toll in Haiti jumped to 19, which puts Isaac's total death count at 21. It appears most of the deaths in Haiti were due to collapsing structures.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Isaac around 3pm EDT on Monday.

Track forecast:
Models seem to be coming into better agreement today on where Isaac will make landfall, closing in on Louisiana and New Orleans as most likely landfall point. The ECMWF, HWRF, and UKMET all suggest New Orleans as the landfall location. The GFS is only slightly west of that. The GFDL is the farthest west, predicting landfall near the Louisiana-Texas border. Landfall timing remains Tuesday night. Beyond landfall, Isaac is expected to move north toward the Midwest through the rest of this week, however, models are showing that the system will likely slow down around landfall time, prolonging impacts like surge and inland flooding.

Intensity forecast:
The closer Isaac gets to landfall without having formed an eye, the better it is for intensity at landfall. Isaac has strengthened only modestly in the past 24 hours, and is still struggling with a less-than-conducive atmospheric environment. The HWRF remains on the high end of the intensity spectrum, suggesting Isaac will be a weak category 2 upon landfall. Other models suggest it will be a strong category 1, but the difference is splitting hairs. The National Hurricane Center's official forecast is for Isaac to continue strengthening over the next day, reaching category 2 at landfall.


Figure 2. Tide gauge data from St. Petersburg, Florida. The green line shows the storm surge. As Isaac's counterclockwise winds blew offshore this morning, water levels feel two feet at St. Petersburg. The winds switched to onshore this afternoon as the center of Isaac moved more to the northwest, bringing a storm surge of two feet to the city.

Storm surge observations from Isaac
This morning, as Isaac's counter-clockwise winds brought offshore winds to the Tampa/St. Petersburg area, ocean waters fell two feet along the coast. This afternoon, winds have shifted to blow onshore, and a two foot storm surge has been observed at Naples, Fort Meyers, and St. Petersburg on the west coast of Florida. Water levels have also begun to rise along the coast of Louisiana, with a storm surge of 1.5 feet already occurring at Shell Beach on the east side of New Orleans in Lake Borgne.

Angela and Jeff

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nothing here either (Destin area) hot humid, no breeze, in fact still air... all most freaky!
Quoting will40:


wow you being on the east side of it i would thought you would be getting rain already
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29384
Quoting kmanislander:


Talk about flycasting LOL.


Agreed :)

Member Since: August 23, 2012
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1901. JeffM
4:23 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting kmanislander:
Time to turn in here. Good night all. Catch you in the morning.


Nite Kman!
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
1900. snotly
4:23 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
I heard that guy later went on to work for skunk works, he disappeared under mysterious circumstances, hmmm... did anyone notice how the El Nino is weaking... could it be?... Na!

Quoting JeffM:
Now that I think about it, it was tunnels. That guy would not give up on the idea.

Definitely some funny stuff on here through the years.
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 686
1899. kmanislander
4:23 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Have a good sleep, Kman! Thanks.


You too. Out now.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
1898. vis0
4:23 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
IMAGES of Issac make it look Extratropical ...sure its scientifically incorrect & impossible but makes a great news headline; nor'easter hits the gulf then blame it on slippey oil blended at 75degrees.

Member Since: December 15, 2006 Posts: 249 Comments: 456
1897. lobdelse81
4:23 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Isaac is starting to remind me somewhat of how Hurricane Alicia looked like just prior to her rapid strengthening. And this happened fairly close to the Texas coast, so we should be wary of what Isaac may do
Member Since: September 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
1896. kmanislander
4:22 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting atmosweather:


Apart from a 3-6 hour period last night when he reformed his center N-wards under the developing CDO feature, he has never once been vertically stacked. The thermodynamic profiles from RECON have been pretty absurd showing maximum flight level temps sometimes 50-60 miles away from the low level center.


And the center jumping around, like this afternoon.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
1895. moonlightcowboy
4:22 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1894. will40
4:22 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting IMA:
1836. nolarocks

Wow, very interesting! Thanks for the post, NOLARocks.

{{{{{Ally!!!!}}}} Great to see ya!

Will, was it my little dog? I don't know, I probably changed it fairly often. lol


yes the lil doggie
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4251
1893. LAlurker
4:22 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting nolarocks:


Hi all,

I've been a long time lurker and have always appreciated this site for its content. It really is my go to site for tropical weather.

The reason I wanted to write was to address what I feel are some common misconceptions. Am I an expert? No. But, being a lifelong resident of NOLA, I've seen some pretty ridiculous engineering ideas for combating flooding, particularly in Orleans Parish.

To be brief, Orleans Parish allows the lake to meander its way deep into the city at multiple locations with pumping stations at the termini of "outflow canals." These canals hold water at the same level as the lake and have historically been lined with small levees - the Army COE/Orleans Parish modified these levees with walls that were driven down on top of them. (I remember driving by the newly constructed walls and asking my wife if they were simply decorative since they had no buttressing, and thus, no obvious sign of being a retention wall).

Jefferson Parish, on the other hand, is situated exactly the same way as Orleans Parish with Lake Pontchartrain on its north side. Jefferson Parish does not allow the lake to intrude into its limits - it has pumping stations at the lake, which serve as damns/dikes (so to speak), and pump water that is collected in a network of canals throughout the Parish. There are no levees along these canals within the Parish nor along the canals that lead directly to the pumping stations.

The large levees, which most think of when the term is used, did not fail during Katrina. Yes, there was overtopping in locations, but the levees by large DID NOT FAIL. The flood walls protecting inland waterways connected directly to the lake did!! These flood walls were obviously not designed to hold back high water levels to even untrained eyes.

Orleans Parish has installed "temporary" pumps analogous to the locations of the pumping stations in Jefferson Parish. Yet, the stupidity persists in Orleans which relies on "outflow canals" to carry water that is pumped from stations miles inland.

We have perfect examples of how to protect ourselves using the Jefferson Parish model vs. how not to do it using the Orleans Parish system.

Don't allow the water in side the city limits in the first place!!!

Remember, Katrina's devastation was the result of flood wall failure (NOT levee failure!!) which is evidenced by Jefferson's relatively successful outcome post-Katrina - despite Jefferson Parish turning their pumps off during the storm!!

I certainly do not intend to be preachy - I simply want to clarify for those who want to know the difference, since many are completely unaware of the 2 systems sitting side by side with very very different approaches and successes/failures.

Thanks for your patience,

NOLARocks

You're right, except, just to be picky, the 17th stret canal is entirely inside of Jefferson parish (including the old seafood retaurants on West End that were over the canal) the problem is that the pumping station is operated by New Orleans, like you said, way back up the canal.
Member Since: July 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
1892. TxIkeJoe
4:22 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Dry air......has this years drought cause more ULL s. with so much dry air?
Can you even imagine what this storm would be like if the dry air wasn't there....crazy right?

GFS still wanting to blow up another hurricane like storm sept 6-97-11 in gulf...
is this the dry run for the next storm....
people may cry ....wolf
Member Since: August 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
1891. bamadmax
4:22 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Spanish Fort, AL here. So ready to know what this storm is going to do and where it is going to go. Been watching it since it was an invest and never seems to do anything you think it is going to do. Been reading for years, but first time to post.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
1890. kmanislander
4:21 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting CoastalAlabama:
Other old names I recall from years ago...

IKE
AtmosAggie
StormJunkie
FSUboy or something like that...
PearlandAggie?

Some of these likely still around, dunno, I was off for about 4 years after Ike hit (was in Houston / different handle) until this past week. Drak used to post ALL the time back then as well...

Who was that guy either in 2004-5 or 2007-8 that had those rose colored glasses and his own blog, had some type of time with Coast Guard I think...and would quickly introduce himself to all new females?

Forget his name....Would normally post a list of definitions for all newbies, and give a morning update?



Talk about flycasting LOL.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
1889. atmosweather
4:21 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting kmanislander:


We thought that from about 2 PM today but it has not happened. The system has just been too lopsided to get going.


Apart from a 3-6 hour period last night when he reformed his center N-wards under the developing CDO feature, he has never once been vertically stacked. The thermodynamic profiles from RECON have been pretty absurd showing maximum flight level temps sometimes 50-60 miles away from the low level center.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
1888. will40
4:21 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting odinslightning:
not a raindrop in sight here on the border of Mobile/Tillmans.... but the winds are starting as a breeze and it is hot....feels a little damper than it did 2 hrs ago outside, about double the humidity....


wow you being on the east side of it i would thought you would be getting rain already
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4251
1887. CaicosRetiredSailor
4:21 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6051
1886. moonlightcowboy
4:21 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting kmanislander:
Time to turn in here. Good night all. Catch you in the morning.


Have a good sleep, Kman! Thanks.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1885. IMA
4:21 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
1836. nolarocks

Wow, very interesting! Thanks for the post, NOLARocks.

{{{{{Ally!!!!}}}} Great to see ya!

Will, was it my little dog? I don't know, I probably changed it fairly often. lol
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1261
1884. moonlightcowboy
4:21 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting atmosweather:


I believe a dropsonde measures wind, temperature, dew point and other thermodynamic profiles at all the significant standard pressure levels (850 mb, 700 mb ect.), including any isobaric levels for winds to generate such things as the mean wind in the lowest 150 meters and such, and then measures the barometric pressure at the surface as it falls to the ground.

You're spot on about the intense low level spin today, it was clear this morning that he had tightened his surface circulation enough to be able to generate stronger winds close to the center. But that dry air has inhibited his mid level energy from being transported down into the lower levels and into the center of the storm.


Thanks, Atmos! Nice information, appreciate it.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1883. louisianaweatherguy
4:20 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
ya know on this night seven years ago, we went to bed with a pretty decent hurricane Katrina turning in the gulf, BUT the next mornin... was when we woke up to a monster (175 mph winds)... not saying Isaac is exploding into major hurricane, but I think Isaac is getting ready to explode into at least an 80+mph hurricane... satellite imagery has improved dramatically over the last 3 hours.... have a feeling the morning will bring us a little surprise... :)
Member Since: July 9, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 692
1882. kmanislander
4:20 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Time to turn in here. Good night all. Catch you in the morning.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
1881. CoastalAlabama
4:20 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Other old names I recall from years ago...

IKE
AtmosAggie
StormJunkie
FSUboy or something like that...
PearlandAggie?

Some of these likely still around, dunno, I was off for about 4 years after Ike hit (was in Houston / different handle) until this past week. Drak used to post ALL the time back then as well...

Who was that guy either in 2004-5 or 2007-8 that had those rose colored glasses and his own blog, had some type of time with Coast Guard I think...and would quickly introduce himself to all new females?

Forget his name....Would normally post a list of definitions for all newbies, and give a morning update?

Member Since: August 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
1880. acl8610
4:20 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting WXGulfBreeze:


Since everyone seems to be reminiscing - I've been a paying member here for nearly 10 years. Can't remember the first time I logged in...used to post as WxDelMarVa, but changed everything earlier this year after finally moving to my long time "vacation spot" and renewing my membership. I was more of a follower of winter storms, and saw more than my fair share up north.

That was then:



This is now:




know the feeling... youngstown, oh to port orange, fl in 2010
Member Since: October 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
1879. odinslightning
4:20 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
not a raindrop in sight here on the border of Mobile/Tillmans.... but the winds are starting as a breeze and it is hot....feels a little damper than it did 2 hrs ago outside, about double the humidity....
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
1878. weatherh98
4:20 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


9-12 feet for me!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
1877. Beachfoxx
4:19 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Swamp People! That show, I know that show..... only because one of the "stars" was arrested here in Destin and it was all over the news! LOL
Quoting SkulDouggery:

Those are TV shows not representative of your average southern person. Please dont think we are all like the "Swamp people"! LOL
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29384
1876. will40
4:19 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting IMA:
It's funny, I can eve remember so many people's avatars, even if I haven't seen them in ages. Don't remember which one I used to use, though. We've sure seen a lot together over the years, we've learned a lot, too. I am forever grateful for the weather knowledge imparted here (that I've not necessarily retained) & for the true friendships formed.


i do think i remember that av IMA
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4251
1875. Bobbyweather
4:19 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
I found more interesting data
30 mph 45 kph 1017 mb Tropical Depression

40 mph 65 kph 1013 mb Tropical Storm

25 mph 35 kph 1024 mb Remnant low
(Hurricane Danny of 2003)

70 mph 110 kph 1005 mb Tropical Storm
(Hurricane Iris of 2001)
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
1874. nola70119
4:19 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting LAlurker:

It was legally decided (Judge Duval) that it didn't happen that way. But, I agree with you, it would have flooded just the same with the MRGO waters coming through Chalmette and Arabi.


Thanks. I didn't know that.
Member Since: June 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1565
1873. silverstripes
4:19 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
tkeeth,

SQUAWK...that's it! The weird things you remember.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 595
1872. LurkyMcLurkerson
4:19 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting cheesehead4nola:
Loooooong-time lurker here! I think this is my first post lol. Been following for years. I have to ask, what did Taz say to get so many upset in here. I can't find it.


Somethingorother about how it'd better get be cat 3 in the morning or he'd drop a cow on the NHC.

Really trivial, honestly, as he was clearly just being typically snarky. Maybe the reference to using large ruminants as projectiles made it more offensive? Dunno.
Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 368
1871. cjnew
4:18 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting atmosweather:


Did you see he posted on Bryan Norcross's first entry here and presented that very idea to him? Lol what a trip he is.

No I missed that, but it's hilarious.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
1870. Orcasystems
4:18 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting SkulDouggery:

Those are TV shows not representative of your average southern person. Please dont think we are all like the "Swamp people"! LOL


You have to admit... they are not making a "sterling" representation of the American south :)

Its actually hilarious to watch :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1869. washingaway
4:18 AM GMT on August 28, 2012


Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
1868. HurricaneHunterJoe
4:18 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
1867. xtremeweathertracker
4:18 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
1866. caneloader
4:17 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting LAlurker:

MRGO has been permanently closed and there is a flood gate in the ICWW to keep Lake Borgne out of the Industrial canal (Inner Harbor Navigation Canal). There is also a new gate in the Industrial canal near Lake Pontchartrain but not sure if it is complete yet.


Thank you for filling it the details. I remember I was surprised they shut MRGO (Mississippi River Gulf Outlet canal) - seemed like the would just let everyone forget and leave it open. Truly, I think that what tipped the balance (maybe I'm too cynical) was when the exposes came out after Katrina on how MRGO was destroying the wetlands - so it was a win-win to close it.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
1865. Beachfoxx
4:17 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Ally - I don't watch t.v. very often. I find it boring! LOL Guess I was watching the wrong shows....
Duck Dynesty - I saw about 5 minutes of that one time. Someone at the office was replaying an episode.
Quoting AllyBama:
Beach - really?


WOW! I can hardly wait for Duck Dynesty to start back!..lol
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29384
1864. gulfcoastmom
4:16 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
So from the way I understand things those of us east of Pensacola can relax and not need to vacate these mobile homes? yes? No?
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 9
1863. Bobbyweather
4:16 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
I finally found a lower pressure at 70 mph!
Hurricane Frances (2004)
September 5 18 UTC 27.8N 81.7W 295 deg 10 mph 16 kph 70 mph 110 kph 975 mb Tropical Storm

Hurricane Lili (2002)
70 mph 110 kph 1004 mb Tropical Storm
70 mph 110 kph 976 mb Tropical Storm

Hurricane Gustav (2002)
70 mph 110 kph 977 mb Tropical Storm

Hurricane Olga (2001)
70 mph 110 kph 979 mb Tropical Storm
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
1862. LAlurker
4:16 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting nola70119:


Nope, sorry. Barge crashed through the levee wall.....talked to people who were there. But the water came from the Chalmette anyway....25 feet of it.

It was legally decided (Judge Duval) that it didn't happen that way. But, I agree with you, it would have flooded just the same with the MRGO waters coming through Chalmette and Arabi.
Member Since: July 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
1861. kmanislander
4:16 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting atmosweather:


They keep finding pretty strong winds down to a couple thousand feet and below, if an eyewall develops it's not going to take long at all for those winds to get transported down to the surface.


We thought that from about 2 PM today but it has not happened. The system has just been too lopsided to get going.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
1860. tkeith
4:15 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting AllyBama:
Beach - really?


WOW! I can hardly wait for Duck Dynesty to start back!..lol
where's my "like" button ?
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8936
1859. Terradad
4:15 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Patrap is on vacation in Cancun for a few more weeks, so he is safe for now.

Did he see this coming????
Member Since: December 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
1858. IMA
4:15 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
It's funny, I can eve remember so many people's avatars, even if I haven't seen them in ages. Don't remember which one I used to use, though. We've sure seen a lot together over the years, we've learned a lot, too. I am forever grateful for the weather knowledge imparted here (that I've not necessarily retained) & for the true friendships formed.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1261
1857. atmosweather
4:15 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting cjnew:


I thought they were TUNNELS! :D


Did you see he posted on Bryan Norcross's first entry here and presented that very idea to him? Lol what a trip he is.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
1856. Orcasystems
4:15 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting AllyBama:
Beach - really?


WOW! I can hardly wait for Duck Dynesty to start back!..lol


Oh yeah.. them to...
I like that show...
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1855. SkulDouggery
4:14 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hey now be nice... I have spent the last few years studying my southern friends. Trying to see what makes them tick.. so I can try and fit in.

I have religiously watched local southern shows such as.

Swamp People
Sons of Guns
Redneck Pawn Stars
Texas Storage Wars

I must admit.. after many episodes... I still have absolutely no idea :)

Those are TV shows not representative of your average southern person. Please dont think we are all like the "Swamp people"! LOL
Member Since: January 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 87
1854. JeffM
4:14 AM GMT on August 28, 2012
Now that I think about it, it was tunnels. That guy would not give up on the idea.

Definitely some funny stuff on here through the years.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 143

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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