Isaac approaching hurricane strength

By: Angela Fritz , 9:14 PM GMT on August 27, 2012

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Isaac is walking the line of hurricane status this afternoon after a hurricane hunter mission investigated the storm and found winds of 80+ mph with the SFMR instrument, which looks down at the surface from the plane and estimates what wind speeds are. This instrument has a notoriously rough time in doing so when there's heavy rain, and since the strongest winds were recorded coinciding with the strongest rain, you can imagine that this region of high wind speed could be suspect. The hurricane hunter mission is still in the storm, so I imagine they will issue a special update if needed. Currently the best estimate of wind speed within the storm is 70 mph. Isaac's pressure has been dropping today as well and is now 981 mb. Isaac is moving northwest at 12 mph--no change since this morning. Satellite loops show that Isaac remains large, though asymmetric, with most of the strong thunderstorm activity on the west and southwest side. Isaac's southeast side continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, which could help to moderate Isaac's intensity as it approaches the coast.

An oil platform in the northern Gulf of Mexico is reporting sustained winds from the north-northeast at 40 mph this afternoon. A buoy west of Tampa, Florida is recording sustained winds around 30 mph, and platforms south of Louisiana are recording winds from 35-40 mph. The widespread heavy rain of yesterday has lightened up in Florida, but a strong line of thunderstorms in one of Isaac's outer bands is training northward along and offshore of the east coast of Florida, affecting everyone from Miami to Jacksonville.

This afternoon the AP reported that Isaac's death toll in Haiti jumped to 19, which puts Isaac's total death count at 21. It appears most of the deaths in Haiti were due to collapsing structures.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Isaac around 3pm EDT on Monday.

Track forecast:
Models seem to be coming into better agreement today on where Isaac will make landfall, closing in on Louisiana and New Orleans as most likely landfall point. The ECMWF, HWRF, and UKMET all suggest New Orleans as the landfall location. The GFS is only slightly west of that. The GFDL is the farthest west, predicting landfall near the Louisiana-Texas border. Landfall timing remains Tuesday night. Beyond landfall, Isaac is expected to move north toward the Midwest through the rest of this week, however, models are showing that the system will likely slow down around landfall time, prolonging impacts like surge and inland flooding.

Intensity forecast:
The closer Isaac gets to landfall without having formed an eye, the better it is for intensity at landfall. Isaac has strengthened only modestly in the past 24 hours, and is still struggling with a less-than-conducive atmospheric environment. The HWRF remains on the high end of the intensity spectrum, suggesting Isaac will be a weak category 2 upon landfall. Other models suggest it will be a strong category 1, but the difference is splitting hairs. The National Hurricane Center's official forecast is for Isaac to continue strengthening over the next day, reaching category 2 at landfall.


Figure 2. Tide gauge data from St. Petersburg, Florida. The green line shows the storm surge. As Isaac's counterclockwise winds blew offshore this morning, water levels feel two feet at St. Petersburg. The winds switched to onshore this afternoon as the center of Isaac moved more to the northwest, bringing a storm surge of two feet to the city.

Storm surge observations from Isaac
This morning, as Isaac's counter-clockwise winds brought offshore winds to the Tampa/St. Petersburg area, ocean waters fell two feet along the coast. This afternoon, winds have shifted to blow onshore, and a two foot storm surge has been observed at Naples, Fort Meyers, and St. Petersburg on the west coast of Florida. Water levels have also begun to rise along the coast of Louisiana, with a storm surge of 1.5 feet already occurring at Shell Beach on the east side of New Orleans in Lake Borgne.

Angela and Jeff

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land fall intensity adjustments.

(or lowest pressure since GFDL intensifies some after land fall).

Adjusted 06z GFS 971mb
Adjusted 06z GFDL 967mb
Adjusted 06z HWRF 969mb
Linear trend 971mb (at NOLA)



Maybe it will make 75mph by the time it drops to 971mb...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
97L is back up to 40%, the tropical wave remains at 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC...LOCATED ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 1250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS A
LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Amazing how even these areas of interest way out in the Atlantic also can't seem to get their act together. I mean, look at 97L- it has remained a 30-40% invest for what seems like days now. I wonder what the issue is across the Atlantic Basin? And are we to assume this will continue from here on out.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
thats is a 9mb drop from 977mb where the nhc as it now


All the local mets (yes I watched Bob Breck last night; forgive me) said that had to be a typo/instrument fluke. I've look at all the loops and still don't see anything but that indentation that wants to be an eyewall when it grows up. Current FB joke from NOLA peeps is we should be calling it "saac".

Local private stations report a steady 4 from the north but the trees look more like F4. High cloud cover still broken here in Gentilly at the Fortress of Squalitude (90.4W 29.59 N) Occasional low clouds (< 1,000 ft) headed due south at much more than 4 mph. Pressure 29.55 and steady.

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2701. ncstorm
GMA was reporting that a lot of oil rigs have closed down in the GOM due to Isaac which is going to spike up gas prices even further..all on account for a tropical storm instead of a major hurricane...this is going to hit a lot of consumers pockets..
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It's very good for the Gulf folks that Isaac is not strong.Some people are just tired of hearing the same thing over and over again and Isaac isn't doing anything.
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2699. JasonRE
In all honesty, what should Lafayette Louisiana expect?

Last night, our local met was saying barely any rain or wind. I just don't understand how we aren't in a threat for flooding, or high winds/tornado activity.

They showed us in the power-outage area, and rainfall area of 6-12"
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If we do have a stall or stationary type storm soon, will it keep going WNW, NW, N or Shift a lil more east??
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


every storm is different when dry air has been messing with inner core mane.. Every storm is different and obviously Isaac has been fighting off some variables.. Thats all I have been saying and ur go to storm is Gordon.. I know what Gordon went through, but i dont its inner core was tamper with a lot like Isaac has to deal with?? I would have to refresh memory and look up more info on that storm and the conditions and all.. i think Isaac has been fighting off something either drier air and so on.. But whatever.. Can't please anyone now days! Specially on this blog now days compare the old days.. I miss the old days in this blog.. I wonder..


you know what i miss.....cat 5 hurricanes
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 572
2696. Sasha
Good morning! Just checking in before going to work...  Praying for all the people in New Orleans and neighboring Gulf areas...  And I just LOVE this phrase below!!!

     Quoting Patrap:

     Be safe, civil and Kind.

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2695. ncstorm
Quoting HCW:
I think that it's time to stop talking about RI cause it's not going to happen cause the storm is not vertically stacked. Check out the SPC analysis
from 925 up and you will see why it's not in the cards for Isaac . Take care and stay classy WU users


LOL!! Good Morning Everyone!
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i think a stall may be comeing soon wish some of the mode runs where all so forcasting the longer this storm sets overe water the stronger it gets and with it moveing at 7mph it will give it other full day may be two
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Quoting RTSplayer:


I don't know, but TWC just gave teh official update and said it was 976mb central pressure, so down only 1mb in 3 hours, maintaining the over-night trend.


If that reading you have is correct this is definitely in the ridiculous category now, because that is high cat 2 pressure.



If the eye tightens up to reflect it's pressure, we might take one on the chin after all.


not necessarily.
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2692. GetReal


IMO we are probably less that a half hour away from closing off the N side of the eye wall for good...
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8871
Quoting canehater1:


Spoken like a true oilfield trasher..lol Glad to see
your not on a rig...I'm at home in Lake Charles ..my boat evacuated to Cameron Sunday...


Yes indeed oilfield trash LOL! glad to hear y'all got outta the way...
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I guess it's starting.

Radar is showing widespread 36kts plus winds and spotty 50kts winds already approaching the Lake Borgne area.

Figure anybody east of NOLA who hasn't already got their preparations done probably won't be able now. The wind will be too strong to carry a sheet of plywood around.
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


please.. gordon was a border line sat 3 moving at 20mph in 75 degree water just above the SAL....isaac is in 85 degree water, a little dry air..very favorable upper air pattern, moving at 10mph as of late...theres really no reason it shouldnt have at least gained hurricane status already


every storm is different when dry air has been messing with inner core mane.. Every storm is different and obviously Isaac has been fighting off some variables.. Thats all I have been saying and ur go to storm is Gordon.. I know what Gordon went through, but i dont its inner core was tamper with a lot like Isaac has to deal with?? I would have to refresh memory and look up more info on that storm and the conditions and all.. i think Isaac has been fighting off something either drier air and so on.. But whatever.. Can't please anyone now days! Specially on this blog now days compare the old days.. I miss the old days in this blog.. I wonder..
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Not that it matters now , but Isaac should make landfall west of The Mouth of the Miss. River if
current track holds
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977mb (28.85 inHg) Sea Level (Surface)
(From Dropsonde)
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2686. 10Speed
Quoting LargoFl:
gee just went outside..the moisture laden clouds are racing northward here on the gulf coast of florida, must be a feeder band here..lots of rain coming up folks.......and in polk county florida there is a BOIL WATER notice,seems their water treatment plant went down yesterday....


Where in Polk county? There are numerous water treatment facilities.
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it is developing a tighter core under that CDO .... radar shows a smaller eyewall developing then the 40+ mile wide one we had earlier
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2684. LargoFl
00
WTNT24 KNHC 280853
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0900 UTC TUE AUG 28 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE AUCILLA RIVER
* MORGAN CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 88.1W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 160SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 88.1W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 87.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.5N 89.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 29.5N 90.1W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 30.3N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 31.4N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 100SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 34.5N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 38.0N 91.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 40.5N 87.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 88.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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970.2 mb
(~ 28.65 inHg)
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Quoting CloudGatherer:
What is this, malfunctioning instruments? Weird.

Time: 11:34:00Z
Coordinates: 27.9333N 88.4667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.3 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,238 meters (~ 4,062 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 968.4 mb (~ 28.60 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 17� at 32 knots (From the NNE at ~ 36.8 mph)
Air Temp: 20.0�C* (~ 68.0�F*)
Dew Pt: 20.0�C* (~ 68.0�F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 33 knots (~ 37.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data


I don't know, but TWC just gave teh official update and said it was 976mb central pressure, so down only 1mb in 3 hours, maintaining the over-night trend.


If that reading you have is correct this is definitely in the ridiculous category now, because that is high cat 2 pressure.



If the eye tightens up to reflect it's pressure, we might take one on the chin after all.
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Ring around the sun taken Monday afternoon about 1:00pm with a cell phone (why it looks like night).
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 397
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC...LOCATED ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 1250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS A
LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.




97L back up too 40%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I suspect we will have Hurricane Issac at 8am but do not expect to much more strengthening maybe getting to 80 or 85mph before landfall.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE LOUISANA COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ISAAC IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE
AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

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2678. HCW
Storm Junkie is live and in South MS and helping out Portlight. His live feed can be found here


Link


Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1408
2677. LargoFl
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
I like your pictures Largo, but please let us know where they are from?

Do you know whether
Bayshore flooded at high tide?
hi dont know if bayshore flooded yet, im trying to find flooding and storm pics from around florida, so far just a few, if i find more i'll post them
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97L is back up to 40%, the tropical wave remains at 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC...LOCATED ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 1250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS A
LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
First significant rain band is coming ashore in SE LA right now.
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2674. tkeith
Quoting presslord:
Isaac illustrates that tropical forecasting is still as much art as science...it's a difficult business trying to rationalize chaos...
aint that the truth...
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whats see its slowed down too 7mph so that gives it all most other 24hrs may be 36hr overe water that will give it a lot more time too ramp up
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also on that 968 reading the winds didnt go calm which means they may have missed the dead center meaning pressure could be as low as 967
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Isaac illustrates that tropical forecasting is still as much art as science...it's a difficult business trying to rationalize chaos...
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I like your pictures Largo, but please let us know where they are from?

Do you know whether
Bayshore flooded at high tide?
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2669. tkeith
Looks like it's slowed down a little too TA13.
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I suspect we will have Hurricane Issac at 8am but do not expect to much more strengthening maybe getting to 80 or 85mph before landfall.
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2667. LargoFl
Tampa Bay...the worst scenario has passed for the Bay area when it comes to Tropical Storm Isaac.

But that doesn't mean that the Bay area is done dealing with the effects of the storm.

As Isaac continue to churn in the Gulf, the Bay area is dealing with coastal flooding, high surf and rip currents, according to Bay News 9 Meteorologist Juli Marquez.

On Monday, the system's outer edges spun up severe cells that produced tornadoes in the Bay area. Tornado warnings were issued throughout the afternoon. There are no watches or warnings for the Bay area so far Tuesday.

Isaac's bands dumped rain throughout the Bay area Monday and created windy conditions.

Squall-like conditions will continue today with high rain chances. There will be some sunshine today as temperatures heat up to the mid 80s. That will help bring on afternoon thunderstorms. Rain chances will be at about 60 percent today and Wednesday and 50 percent Thursday.

"Around here, the good rain chances will continue for several days," Marquez said. "Storms will develop and some of them may be strong. Later in the week, we will be back to a more typical pattern of scattered showers."
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Quoting HCW:
I think that it's time to stop talking about RI cause it's not going to happen cause the storm is not vertically stacked. Check out the SPC analysis
from 925 up and you will see why it's not in the cards for Isaac . Take care and stay classy WU users


Care to explain the 9mb drop in pressure? There is no stacking issues, unless you want claim Ike in 2008 also wasnt vertically stacked. Isaac isnt increasing in winds because it's pressure is so large and sprawled. The surge on this stom is the killer. It's higher than some major hurricanes.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
Hurricane Gert of 1999 once had winds of 70 mph while pressure was 964 mb.
23/0000 42.2 55.6 964 60 tropical storm
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
700 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND ISAAC NEARLY A HURRICANE...
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOOD THREAT TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 88.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
Quoting HCW:
I think that it's time to stop talking about RI cause it's not going to happen cause the storm is not vertically stacked. Check out the SPC analysis
from 925 up and you will see why it's not in the cards for Isaac . Take care and stay classy WU users


If I hear IR with Issac I think I may stab myself in the eye. That was all I heard on TWC last night.

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Right now TWC is saying I'm going to get 60mph sustained and allegedly gusts to 80mph during the storm's closest approach.

I should end up being very close to the eye/CoC as it passes, as I'm on a line right on it's expected course.


I've been in the actual eye of a Cat 1 and TS, and have been in the eye wall of 2 majors, and CDO of 4 majors (that I remember) so this should be nothing too significant for me.

I'll get it one digital camera though.
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2661. HCW
I think that it's time to stop talking about RI cause it's not going to happen cause the storm is not vertically stacked. Check out the SPC analysis
from 925 up and you will see why it's not in the cards for Isaac . Take care and stay classy WU users
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1408
2660. dipchip
NHC: "Center fixes from the aircraft indicate that the storm has wobbled on a generally westward course over the past few hours. This is believed to be temporary …however and the longer-term motion estimate is about 305/10."

Isaac has been wobbling west now for 18 hours. Since leaving the Dry Tortugas; Isaac has been making good a course of 285 and I suspect this will continue and make land fall near Cameron La. Expect the Eye to close by 8 AM EDT.

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2659. LargoFl
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2658. Walnut
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, Isaac's pressure has fallen significantly from 977 millibars to 968 millibars. Still not to the center.
Here he goes!!! I'm thinking it's Cane time.
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Quoting GetReal:



Maybe HWRF was not that far off on the depth of Isaac???



all hail HWRF you most bow down too it now
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2656. keisa90
967 and not a hurricane?
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Quoting CloudGatherer:

Well, it doesn't look like it. On the other hand, NOAA just made a pass, and was like 10mb higher than that. Weird.


NOAA plane is higher and wasn't an exact center fix.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
That's one strong TS.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.