Little change to Isaac, but storm poses a serious storm surge threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:25 PM GMT on August 27, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac has changed little in strength or organization this morning, as the storm heads northwest at 14 mph towards the Central Gulf Coast. There are two hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm, and Isaac's central pressure held steady at 989 mb at the 8:30 am and 9:15 am center fixes. Top surface winds remain near 65 mph. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac is a very large storm, but isn't very symmetric. Heavy thunderstorm activity is lacking on the southeast side, where 10 knots of wind shear is driving dry air into the circulation. The center is surrounded by a ring of echoes now, which was not the case on Sunday. However, the echoes are weak. The 8:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters reported about half of a ragged eyewall, but the 9:15 am report did not mention any evidence of an eyewall. Isaac will have to form an eyewall in order to intensify significantly.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Isaac. Note the lack of heavy thunderstorm activity on the storm's southeast side, where dry air and wind shear are combining to interfere with development.

Isaac's rains
Isaac's heaviest rains have fallen along a swath from the east coast of Florida near West Palm Beach to the center of the state, just south of Orlando. West Palm Beach received 7.57" of rain from Isaac as of 10 am EDT this morning. A trained spotter in Western Boynton Beach reported 10" of rain from midnight to midnight Sunday. Heavy rains from Isaac are lingering over Cuba but have ended in Haiti and the Dominican Republic; flash floods in Haiti from Isaac's torrential rains killed at least nineteen, and two died in the Dominican Republic.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from Melbourne, Florida radar shows that Isaac has dumped a wide swath of 3+ inches of rain (orange colors) across the state.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs are fairly unified taking Isaac ashore near Southeast Louisiana late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, but continue to show major differences in what happens after that. It is still uncertain if a trough of low pressure passing to the north of Isaac will be able to turn the storm due north, as the ECMWF model is predicting, or bypass the storm, allowing a more west-northwest motion into western Louisiana, like the GFS model is predicting. In either case, Isaac is likely to slow down as it approaches the coast, which will increase the damage potential fro m its wind, storm surge, and rains. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model calls for 10 - 20 inches of rain over much of Louisiana. The ECMWF model predicts that these heavy rains will fall more over Mississippi. It appears likely that Arkansas will see some heavy rains from Isaac late in the week, which would help put a dent in the exceptional drought conditions there.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 8-day period from 2 am Monday August 27 to 2 am Tuesday September 4, from the 2 am EDT August 27 run of the GFS model. This model is predicting a wide swath of 5 - 10 inches of rain (orange colors) will affect portions of Louisiana. Additional very heavy rains are predicted for the Midwest, as moisture from Isaac interacts with a cold front. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac is currently crossing over a relatively cool eddy of water, which will keep intensification slow today. By tonight, the total heat content of the waters increases, which should aid intensification. Low wind shear of 10 knots or less is likely until landfall. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow to the north is not as strong as yesterday, which should also slow intensification today. The models forecast the upper-level outflow should improve by Tuesday. A storm this large will have trouble undergoing rapid intensification, and Isaac's most likely intensity at landfall will be as a Category 1 hurricane, which is what most of the intensity models are forecasting.


Figure 4. Track of Hurricane Gustav of 2008, which followed a path very similar to that of Isaac's predicted path.

Storm surge forecast for Isaac
Storm surge is the primary damage threat from Isaac. Isaac is a huge storm, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out 205 miles from the center. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina at landfall had tropical storm-force winds that extended out 230 miles from its center. Isaac's large size will enable it to set a large area of the ocean into motion, which will generate a large storm surge once the storm approaches land on the Gulf Coast. Water levels at Shell Beach, Louisiana, just east of New Orleans, were already elevated by 1' this morning. Conversely, water levels have fallen by 2' this morning at St. Petersburg, Florida, where strong offshore winds due to Isaac's counter-clockwise circulation have carried water away from the coast. The latest 6:30 am EDT Integrated Kinetic Energy analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Isaac's winds near 0.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, but the destructive potential of Isaacs's storm surge was 2.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. I expect this destructive potential will rise above 3 by time Isaac makes landfall, making Isaac's storm surge similar to that generated by Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008, which followed a path very similar to Isaac's predicted path. Gustav brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane to New Orleans: 9.5' to Lake Borgne on the east side of the city. A higher Category 2-scale surge occurred along the south-central coast of Louisiana, and was 12.5' high in Black Bay, forty miles southeast of New Orleans. Recent model runs indicate Isaac may slow down to a forward speed under 5 mph on Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, close to the coast. If Isaac is just offshore at this time, the coasts of Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle will be exposed to a large storm surge with battering waves for two high tide cycles. This sort of extending pounding will be capable of delivering more damage than the storm surge of Hurricane Gustav of 2008.

The affect of storm size and angle of approach on storm surge
A 2008 paper by Irish et al., The influence of storm size on hurricane surge, found that large storms like Isaac are capable to delivering a 30% larger storm surge to the coast than a smaller storm with the same maximum wind speeds. The angle with which the storm hit the coast is important, too--a storm moving due north or slightly east of north will deliver a storm surge about 10% greater than a storm moving NNW or NW. Consult our Storm Surge pages for detailed information on what the risk is for the coast. I expect that Isaac's storm surge will be about 30% higher than the typical surge one would expect based on the maximum wind speeds.

Isaac's storm surge will provide the first test of the newly-completed New Orleans levee system upgrade. In the wake of the disastrous storm surge flooding from Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Congress appropriated $14.5 billion to upgrade the New Orleans levee system to withstand a Category 3 hurricane storm surge. Katrina was a Category 3 storm at landfall, but the storm passed far enough to the east of the city that its storm surge was characteristic of a Category 1 - 2 storm at the places where the city's flood walls and levees failed. The new flood defenses were only partially completed in time for the arrival of Hurricane Gustav in 2008, which hit Central Louisiana as a Category 2 storm. Gustav brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane to New Orleans: 9.5' to Lake Borgne on the east side of the city. Since that time, the imposing 2-mile long IHNC Flood Barrier has been completed to block off the funnel-shaped pair of canals on the east side of the city. I expect New Orleans' new flood defenses will be able to hold back Isaac's surge, but areas outside the levees are at risk of heavy storm surge damage.


Figure 5. A portion of New Orleans' new $14.5 billion dollar flood defenses, as taken from an Army Corps of Engineers map.

New Orleans flood defense info
Army Corps of Engineers map of the new flood defenses
Army Corps of Engineers video showing the flood defenses
New York Times article, Vast Defenses Now Shielding New Orleans

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located in the Middle Atlantic, about 1050 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, and high wind shear should begin to tear the disturbance apart on Tuesday.

Another tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Sunday is located just south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance is moving west at 10 - 15 mph, and could arrive in the Lesser Antilles around September 2. Several models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression late this week, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning.

Angela Fritz will have a new post here by 6 pm EDT. I'm in Atlanta to help out The Weather Channel with their on-air hurricane coverage, and will doing a few 3-minute tropical updates at 30 minutes past the hour between 2:30 - 7:30 pm EDT today.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Isaac (chelina)
View from the north side of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge.
Tropical Storm Isaac
our street at noon today (seflagamma)
Aug 26, 2012: Isaac floods our street really bad. Now nearly 11
our street at noon today

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Quoting GetReal:
Station 42003
NDBC
Location: 26.044N 85.612W
Date: Mon, 27 Aug 2012 15:50:00 UTC
Winds: SE (140�) at 7.8 kt gusting to 13.6 kt
Significant Wave Height: 15.4 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 10 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (68�)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.17 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 82.8 F
Water Temperature: 85.1F



Where is the wind?
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36855
Can anyone tell me what we would expect here in Lafayette LA?
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PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-LE E-
1150 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR AN EXTREME RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAS
BEEN ISSUED. THIS BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES.

* WAVES AND SURF...VERY HIGH WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE COAST GENERATING
SURF HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET.

* HAZARDS...THE LARGE WAVES AND HIGH SURF WILL RESULT IN LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36855
Quoting sarahjola:
it looks to me like the dry air is getting cut off and issac is moistening the atmosphere. anyone want to elaborate on this? may i also ask if there is anyone who can just use their own opinion in answering if issac might still reach cat. 2 strength? tia!

Please change your avatar, it's disturbing me..
:(
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Interesting mapping note. From the last recon fix a motion of 307 degrees takes it to Morgan City, LA. 300 degree motion takes it to Beaumont, TX and a 295 motion takes it to Houston.
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Report in Wellington that canals are overflowing, streets flooded & closed in many areas and still raining. May have to drive out in my truck to get my Mother In-Law home from work in a little bit. All patients cancelled and she's stuck there with a low profile car.
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While many on the east coast and elsewhere in Florida have been pummeled by Isaac's rain--and are still being drenched by them--here in Naples Isaac hasn't brought much. We're the mainland city Isaac has been nearest, yet our rains have been meager: less than 2" yesterday, and about half an inch today. I'm sure some in the drought-stricken Midwest would envy us greatly for even that, but still: as of this morning, Naples was still down 4.83" from June 1, and 7.37" for the year.

Ah, well; maybe the next one will help out...
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Quoting Dsntslp:
The canal drain must be clogged as water is no longer draining from the pool patio but is backing up into the house now. There is a drain at the end of the street that drains a small canal behind my house into a much larger canal of the St. Lucie River.

Will wait for a break in the rain (if we even get one) and go down there and see if we can unblock it before our whole neighborhood floods.

Friends in Stuart Florida that live on the River have water to their back door as well.

It appears this rain will not end for some time to come as it is bearing down in a straight line headed N toward us. I do wish it would veer off it's current course just a little and spread the wealth...

More later, out to see if we can unclog the ditches...

Excuse typos, no time to proof...
Be careful working in the drains and good luck!
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Quoting sarahjola:
can anyone answer this? tia!



in my opinion No
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It's a huge storm overall. I guess that's why the NHC is predicting such a large storm surge.
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Quoting LPStormspotter:
Is it safe to say SE TX won't see this storm?


I wouldn't say that. I've been thinking this had an outside shot of Texas for several days. It only takes a deviation of a few degrees for this to go to Houston instead of the S LA coast.
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Station 42003
NDBC
Location: 26.044N 85.612W
Date: Mon, 27 Aug 2012 15:50:00 UTC
Winds: SE (140) at 7.8 kt gusting to 13.6 kt
Significant Wave Height: 15.4 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 10 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (68)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.17 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 82.8 F
Water Temperature: 85.1F



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The canal drain must be clogged as water is no longer draining from the pool patio but is backing up into the house now. There is a drain at the end of the street that drains a small canal behind my house into a much larger canal of the St. Lucie River.

Will wait for a break in the rain (if we even get one) and go down there and see if we can unblock it before our whole neighborhood floods.

Friends in Stuart Florida that live on the River have water to their back door as well.

It appears this rain will not end for some time to come as it is bearing down in a straight line headed N toward us. I do wish it would veer off it's current course just a little and spread the wealth...

More later, out to see if we can unclog the ditches...

Excuse typos, no time to proof...
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Flash Fllod emergency across C Palm Beach County as 23" of rain has now been confirmed. Also 5" to 7" south of Orlando. Amazing!!

this..is going to be a HUGE problem in the days to come..long after issac is gone, just imagine all those lakes and streams and rivers overflowing and flooding...then another tropical system comes next week..and if the gfs proves true..yet another tropical system moves thru the week after
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36855
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:

Its crazy how these bands are hugging east coast. I would think it would be headed your way as it moves northwest


I was thinking the same thing! I figured by now, all this action would be on the west coast and we would be in the clear. Unfortunately the Isaac train from this feeder band wants follow the I-95 up Florida. Extremely heavy stuff over Western Broward right now.
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293. CJ5
Now the center looks to be exposed on the N/E and S side.
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Quoting Matt74:
Seem the blog posts have slowed since its not a direct hit in Florida , or because it's not a monster cat 5 that's gonna obliterate everything.


And the reason for this comment is?
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Quoting sarahjola:
it looks to me like the dry air is getting cut off and issac is moistening the atmosphere. anyone want to elaborate on this? may i also ask if there is anyone who can just use their own opinion in answering if issac might still reach cat. 2 strength? tia!
can anyone answer this? tia!
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Assuming a general northwest motion continues, Isaac will pass over the neast side of the current Loop Eddy in the central GoM. If Isaac happens to track a bit further west, and that is what is trending, he may actually cross the heart of the Loop Eddy and slow down or maybe even stall as he begins to really press up against the ridge at the 1016mb area pressure.

The Loop Eddy is centered at 25.5m,88w and extends outwards some 200 miles ( ,-) in each direction.

NHC FORECAST POINT:
24H 28/1200Z 28.3N 88.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

The current NHC forecast point has Isaac in 24 hours (minimum 80 mph Cat 1) passing 28.3n,88.4w - prime stuff for intensification.



Isaac will continue intensifying, and pushing a considerable amount of water as well, certainly more than a forecast 10 feet of surge.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
20+ inch now!!! wow


My backyard is flooded (Wellington). 20 inches seems like an underestimate! :)
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
Not to mention people are without power. hy is it always some sort of competition? So juvenile..
I agree
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36855
Flash Flood emergency across C Palm Beach County as 23" of rain has now been confirmed. Also 5" to 7" south of Orlando. Amazing!!

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284. BlxMS
Until this morning, I couldn't escape thinking about how much the official track changed on Katrina from five or so days out to ultimate landfall. Finally, this morning I am feeling a bit better here in Biloxi. Certainly, isaac is not even in KATRINA's league, but since 2005, they ALL concern me. General agreement from the well informed WU crowd that Biloxi is pretty much safe now??

Link
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Quoting LargoFl:
why would you say that?..we have real bad weather here in florida right now, been posting about it all morning long?
Not to mention people are without power. hy is it always some sort of competition? So juvenile..
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 467
Quoting LargoFl:
well im expecting as issac moves more west, that will pull all thats happening on the east coast now..over here later on..timing all depends on issac and how fast he goes westward..might not happen..but we will see this evening ok


Thanks! I was thinking the same thing but just not sure. We decided to let a bit more water out of our pool just to be safe.
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For comparison sake, last year Irene produced 6-11 foot storm surge as a Category 3 hurricane and continued to produce that as it approached NC. Isaac is a 65mph tropical storm and producing similar amounts.
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bands will continue for the day and maybe part of early evening along fla eastern half before tapering off



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Quoting Matt74:
Seem the blog posts have slowed since its not a direct hit in Florida , or because it's not a monster cat 5 that's gonna obliterate everything.
why would you say that?..we have real bad weather here in florida right now, been posting about it all morning long?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36855
Still no heavy rain squalls here in Tampa Bay. Just an occasional sprinkle.
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277. CJ5
He just cannot pull it together. Good news for those to be impacted. He has had an issue with about every side of the center over the past 4 days. Has not closed been able to close it off with convection despite conditions being generally good for it to happen. I wonder if they are seeding? Anyone see any chemtrails around?
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Is it safe to say SE TX won't see this storm?
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Quoting LargoFl:
EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1239 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

FLC061-111-271700-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-120827T1700Z/
ST. LUCIE-INDIAN RIVER-
1239 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT FOR EASTERN
INDIAN RIVER AND EASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTIES...

AT 1235 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE ROTATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIVER COUNTY. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR VERO BEACH HIGHLANDS NORTH AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LAKEWOOD PARK...VERO BEACH...ORCHID...WINTER BEACH...WABASSO
BEACH...WABASSO BEACH PARK...WABASSO...INDIAN RIVER SHORES AND
GIFFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&

Its crazy how these bands are hugging east coast. I would think it would be headed your way as it moves northwest
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 467
Quoting Chicklit:
SAL should not be a problem for the new invest.
..gee it looks like the next few weeks its going to be one storm after another for us in the gulf, GFS has two more hurricane like storms going to the same area issac is going to now..geez i hope that..does not prove true..those poor people over there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36855
Quoting Chicklit:
SAL should not be a problem for the new invest.
We have and Invest?
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Seem the blog posts have slowed since its not a direct hit in Florida , or because it's not a monster cat 5 that's gonna obliterate everything.
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This storm is the most annoying storm I've ever had to deal with on here and this is coming from watching Ernesto earlier this month.


*might* see 70mph winds on the recon, but I'm expecting the same old. Still, it is producing massive storm surge for a tropical storm.
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SAL should not be a problem for the new invest.
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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1239 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

FLC061-111-271700-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-120827T1700Z/
ST. LUCIE-INDIAN RIVER-
1239 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT FOR EASTERN
INDIAN RIVER AND EASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTIES...

AT 1235 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE ROTATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIAN RIVER COUNTY. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR VERO BEACH HIGHLANDS NORTH AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LAKEWOOD PARK...VERO BEACH...ORCHID...WINTER BEACH...WABASSO
BEACH...WABASSO BEACH PARK...WABASSO...INDIAN RIVER SHORES AND
GIFFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36855
Quoting trinigal:
So, do you think we'll see some more serious bands in Tampa later today? I'm thinking what is happening on the east coast will happen here on the west coast later? Anybody want to guess on time frame if they do think it'll get stormier again? We've got a good drizzle right now and some smaller gusts but that's about it.
well im expecting as issac moves more west, that will pull all thats happening on the east coast now..over here later on..timing all depends on issac and how fast he goes westward..might not happen..but we will see this evening ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36855
266. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting OBXNCWEATHER:
Tornado warnings continue about 30 miles to my south (here at zip code 32934 - Melbourne, FL)... keep watching the warnings progress northward, and this next round is probably going to be HEAVY....

Been losing power off and on throughout the day. I'm here on the blog while possible, so I appreciate the warnings being posted - I might just happen to see it here before anywhere else.

*fingers crossed for friends in the gulf*


I'm in the same zip code.. It's coming from the south now. Bad band of heavy rain & lightning are just coming into the south end of Brevard.
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265. 900MB
Wow. Can't believe that Issac still hasn't gotten it together. Yeah, it's big, but, Issac can't buy a break! Hopefully he is a drought buster for many!
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
SFC MAP


The shortwave trough has helped to erode the northern edge of the conus ridge with the central part of the high retreating northeastwards. The trough seems to be deepening a bit, extending a bit further south in to eastern Oklahoma. However, it's still leaving that fairly strong (1016mb) bubble, tongue of high pressure underneath it. And, that is what is driving the models nuts because the western edge of that tongue has flopped east and west repeatedly.

Currently, it's extending a bit further to the west at about the Galveston/Houston area. I don't think that will hold up, but its presence is evidence by the currently trending more westwards movement of Isaac. I think that will continue for a bit and may allow the storm to traverse more of the warm loop eddy. Eventually, I believe the western periphery of the ridge will retreat, allowing Isaac an escape route inland. Where, I've said all along, for several days now at Mud Lake just swest of Grand Chenier in central coastal LA. But, it's a crap shoot really, since it's awfully difficult to determine exactly where the ridge recedes and exactly how strong Isaac intensifies to push harder against the ridge towards that somewhat deepening weakness of the trough. Probably Lake Charles to even Mobile is still well in play in the present.



A move by Isaac towards the WNW/W would open the door for Isaac getting over the much warmer loop current. Things could get much worse if it were to slow, or stall over that loop current before resuming a NW track towards landfall. ATT it is the only opportunity I see for Isaac to have any shot at RI.
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So, do you think we'll see some more serious bands in Tampa later today? I'm thinking what is happening on the east coast will happen here on the west coast later? Anybody want to guess on time frame if they do think it'll get stormier again? We've got a good drizzle right now and some smaller gusts but that's about it.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
It's been flip flopping between a recurve on the East Coast or a GOM storm.

Here we go again.
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Quoting Torgen:
Is Isaac shedding that mass of convection over eastern FL? Will that enable him to finally get his house in order, so to speak?


This issue is the dry air to its south that's being pulled into the huge circulation. That is what's eating away at the precipitation to the east of the center.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6065
Quoting LargoFl:
im seeing what is happening to you folks over there..this might be coming over to us on the west coast later on..and im thinking of those fools who keep saying..its ONLY a tropical storm...Flooding can be more devastating then wind when it comes in excess like this huh, hope you get thru this ok over there..my turn tonight for all that
reporting 347 strikes of lightening in 10 minutes with wind gust to 60mph is what said on local news
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 467
Oh great my generator want crank. I really hope that I live far enough in not to lose power.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.