Little change to Isaac, but storm poses a serious storm surge threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:25 PM GMT on August 27, 2012

Share this Blog
48
+

Tropical Storm Isaac has changed little in strength or organization this morning, as the storm heads northwest at 14 mph towards the Central Gulf Coast. There are two hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm, and Isaac's central pressure held steady at 989 mb at the 8:30 am and 9:15 am center fixes. Top surface winds remain near 65 mph. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac is a very large storm, but isn't very symmetric. Heavy thunderstorm activity is lacking on the southeast side, where 10 knots of wind shear is driving dry air into the circulation. The center is surrounded by a ring of echoes now, which was not the case on Sunday. However, the echoes are weak. The 8:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters reported about half of a ragged eyewall, but the 9:15 am report did not mention any evidence of an eyewall. Isaac will have to form an eyewall in order to intensify significantly.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Isaac. Note the lack of heavy thunderstorm activity on the storm's southeast side, where dry air and wind shear are combining to interfere with development.

Isaac's rains
Isaac's heaviest rains have fallen along a swath from the east coast of Florida near West Palm Beach to the center of the state, just south of Orlando. West Palm Beach received 7.57" of rain from Isaac as of 10 am EDT this morning. A trained spotter in Western Boynton Beach reported 10" of rain from midnight to midnight Sunday. Heavy rains from Isaac are lingering over Cuba but have ended in Haiti and the Dominican Republic; flash floods in Haiti from Isaac's torrential rains killed at least nineteen, and two died in the Dominican Republic.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from Melbourne, Florida radar shows that Isaac has dumped a wide swath of 3+ inches of rain (orange colors) across the state.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs are fairly unified taking Isaac ashore near Southeast Louisiana late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, but continue to show major differences in what happens after that. It is still uncertain if a trough of low pressure passing to the north of Isaac will be able to turn the storm due north, as the ECMWF model is predicting, or bypass the storm, allowing a more west-northwest motion into western Louisiana, like the GFS model is predicting. In either case, Isaac is likely to slow down as it approaches the coast, which will increase the damage potential fro m its wind, storm surge, and rains. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model calls for 10 - 20 inches of rain over much of Louisiana. The ECMWF model predicts that these heavy rains will fall more over Mississippi. It appears likely that Arkansas will see some heavy rains from Isaac late in the week, which would help put a dent in the exceptional drought conditions there.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 8-day period from 2 am Monday August 27 to 2 am Tuesday September 4, from the 2 am EDT August 27 run of the GFS model. This model is predicting a wide swath of 5 - 10 inches of rain (orange colors) will affect portions of Louisiana. Additional very heavy rains are predicted for the Midwest, as moisture from Isaac interacts with a cold front. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac is currently crossing over a relatively cool eddy of water, which will keep intensification slow today. By tonight, the total heat content of the waters increases, which should aid intensification. Low wind shear of 10 knots or less is likely until landfall. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow to the north is not as strong as yesterday, which should also slow intensification today. The models forecast the upper-level outflow should improve by Tuesday. A storm this large will have trouble undergoing rapid intensification, and Isaac's most likely intensity at landfall will be as a Category 1 hurricane, which is what most of the intensity models are forecasting.


Figure 4. Track of Hurricane Gustav of 2008, which followed a path very similar to that of Isaac's predicted path.

Storm surge forecast for Isaac
Storm surge is the primary damage threat from Isaac. Isaac is a huge storm, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out 205 miles from the center. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina at landfall had tropical storm-force winds that extended out 230 miles from its center. Isaac's large size will enable it to set a large area of the ocean into motion, which will generate a large storm surge once the storm approaches land on the Gulf Coast. Water levels at Shell Beach, Louisiana, just east of New Orleans, were already elevated by 1' this morning. Conversely, water levels have fallen by 2' this morning at St. Petersburg, Florida, where strong offshore winds due to Isaac's counter-clockwise circulation have carried water away from the coast. The latest 6:30 am EDT Integrated Kinetic Energy analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Isaac's winds near 0.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, but the destructive potential of Isaacs's storm surge was 2.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. I expect this destructive potential will rise above 3 by time Isaac makes landfall, making Isaac's storm surge similar to that generated by Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008, which followed a path very similar to Isaac's predicted path. Gustav brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane to New Orleans: 9.5' to Lake Borgne on the east side of the city. A higher Category 2-scale surge occurred along the south-central coast of Louisiana, and was 12.5' high in Black Bay, forty miles southeast of New Orleans. Recent model runs indicate Isaac may slow down to a forward speed under 5 mph on Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, close to the coast. If Isaac is just offshore at this time, the coasts of Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle will be exposed to a large storm surge with battering waves for two high tide cycles. This sort of extending pounding will be capable of delivering more damage than the storm surge of Hurricane Gustav of 2008.

The affect of storm size and angle of approach on storm surge
A 2008 paper by Irish et al., The influence of storm size on hurricane surge, found that large storms like Isaac are capable to delivering a 30% larger storm surge to the coast than a smaller storm with the same maximum wind speeds. The angle with which the storm hit the coast is important, too--a storm moving due north or slightly east of north will deliver a storm surge about 10% greater than a storm moving NNW or NW. Consult our Storm Surge pages for detailed information on what the risk is for the coast. I expect that Isaac's storm surge will be about 30% higher than the typical surge one would expect based on the maximum wind speeds.

Isaac's storm surge will provide the first test of the newly-completed New Orleans levee system upgrade. In the wake of the disastrous storm surge flooding from Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Congress appropriated $14.5 billion to upgrade the New Orleans levee system to withstand a Category 3 hurricane storm surge. Katrina was a Category 3 storm at landfall, but the storm passed far enough to the east of the city that its storm surge was characteristic of a Category 1 - 2 storm at the places where the city's flood walls and levees failed. The new flood defenses were only partially completed in time for the arrival of Hurricane Gustav in 2008, which hit Central Louisiana as a Category 2 storm. Gustav brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane to New Orleans: 9.5' to Lake Borgne on the east side of the city. Since that time, the imposing 2-mile long IHNC Flood Barrier has been completed to block off the funnel-shaped pair of canals on the east side of the city. I expect New Orleans' new flood defenses will be able to hold back Isaac's surge, but areas outside the levees are at risk of heavy storm surge damage.


Figure 5. A portion of New Orleans' new $14.5 billion dollar flood defenses, as taken from an Army Corps of Engineers map.

New Orleans flood defense info
Army Corps of Engineers map of the new flood defenses
Army Corps of Engineers video showing the flood defenses
New York Times article, Vast Defenses Now Shielding New Orleans

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located in the Middle Atlantic, about 1050 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, and high wind shear should begin to tear the disturbance apart on Tuesday.

Another tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Sunday is located just south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance is moving west at 10 - 15 mph, and could arrive in the Lesser Antilles around September 2. Several models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression late this week, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning.

Angela Fritz will have a new post here by 6 pm EDT. I'm in Atlanta to help out The Weather Channel with their on-air hurricane coverage, and will doing a few 3-minute tropical updates at 30 minutes past the hour between 2:30 - 7:30 pm EDT today.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Isaac (chelina)
View from the north side of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge.
Tropical Storm Isaac
our street at noon today (seflagamma)
Aug 26, 2012: Isaac floods our street really bad. Now nearly 11
our street at noon today

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 409 - 359

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36Blog Index

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
by the way do we had 98L tagged on the African wave yet

No....

I use this page to find out what is tagged an Invest:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Isaac is currently in the process of wrapping deep convection from the south around to the northeast quadrant. He appears to have more than half of an eye wall completed.



Isaac may be in an area of warmer water associated with the loop eddy. If he can't get his sea legs going in this area may have a tough time getting an intense, lean-running tropical machine going before he runs out of liquid real estate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Charmeck:

And how far off are those conditions - it sure looks nasty and seems to be all the way up through coastal NC


Im in coastal NC and its very gray and dreary right now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Sometimes I wonder if he'll ever get a complete eye wall...was waitin for so long last night but he never seemd to do it...


He has never looked like this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting emcf30:


My power also went off for a short time during that last Tornado warned cell that went through


Finally substiantial rain at OIA which hs been missed by all the recent thunderstorms. Over by my area it has been a very wet summer with June and July combined I received 22" of rain with another 7.5" so far this month.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


23,000 people in Orlando were without power earlier this morning. Infact my power went off 3 times as I was trying to get ready for work.



Where in Orlando? Absolutely no problems on the east side that I could see on my way in to work
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seflagamma:


Same here the water has no place else to go. We've been under that line of stormy and heavy rain now since early this morning and it rarely lets up.

water not yet in my house but probably in others in our neighborhood.

The East Coast of Florida has been hammered by Isaac with all the rain.
Wish it would move out soon and allow others to get some rain.

amazing the east coast affected more than the closer west coast. like i said here in Naples i dont think ive even had a tf gust
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS 12z loop

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting waterskiman:




Hi Waterskiman, thanks!!! I agree with you.

I think alot of bloggers on the east coast of fl are out of action I mean electric, flooding wise, and the gulf states are prolly getting ready


Hard to be here when you are trying to keep water out of your house and vehicles...

plus so many are now without power...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Becoming Better Organized I see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BlxMS:
Until this morning, I couldn't escape thinking about how much the official track changed on Katrina from five or so days out to ultimate landfall. Finally, this morning I am feeling a bit better here in Biloxi. Certainly, isaac is not even in KATRINA's league, but since 2005, they ALL concern me. General agreement from the well informed WU crowd that Biloxi is pretty much safe now??

LinkNot even close to being safe!!!!!!!!!!

We will still be getting TS winds for an extended period even if it hits west of NO. Plus as slow as it is forecasted to be we will see a pretty high storm surge. I think it is a safe bet to say the water will be over hwy 90 in Long Beach, Gulfport, Biloxi, etc
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Isaac is currently in the process of wrapping deep convection from the south around to the northeast quadrant. He appears to have more than half of an eye wall completed.


Sometimes I wonder if he'll ever get a complete eye wall...was waitin for so long last night but he never seemd to do it...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


technically, no reason why it couldn't given the right circumstances. All that convection band on the east coast, if conditions were right, completely break off from the storm into a stalled trough off the east coast or hover there on it's and start it's own system...but conditions would have to be right in that area of the Atlantic for any runaway remnants to do that

And how far off are those conditions - it sure looks nasty and seems to be all the way up through coastal NC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting OviedoWatcher:
Here in East Orlando it is strangely quiet. We can't have had much more than 1-2" of rain in total according to my patented 'pool-o-meter (TM)' and very few gusts worth mentioning. Currently a very gentle breeze which is barely moving the trees and very light rain. Nothing like what those of you further south are having to go through.

-Oviedo Watcher


Here in Altamonte Springs, we have had some rain, some of which I could hear against an east facing window. Shortly thereafter, when I woke up and checked current weather, NWS reported winds 17 gusting to 52 mph for KORL. I must have slept through some fairly gusty (though brief) winds about an hour ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow - Going along with the Earthquakes and Hurricanes being somehow related. (Not my theory - someone else's).

A 7.3 just hit El Salvador....

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/08/27/2969849/str ong-earthquake-hits-off-el.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time: 17:24:00Z
Coordinates: 27.1667N 87.0833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 841.6 mb (~ 24.85 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,513 meters (~ 4,964 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 19° at 43 knots (From the NNE at ~ 49.4 mph)
Air Temp: 16.4°C* (~ 61.5°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 45 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 50 knots (~ 57.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 11 mm/hr (~ 0.43 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting emcf30:


That's what happen when you take away the idea of a Cat 3 or 4 plowing into NOLA down to a more realistic landfall of a cat 1, maybe. Less potential of destruction.
But, you can't take your eye off this crazy, poorly organized storm. Anything can happen.


That's not necessarily true. A good bit of the posters here yesterday are from Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. They are quite possibly doing finishing touches on their Hurricane preparations. I know that's what we've been doing for a good bit yesterday and today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Report in Wellington that canals are overflowing, streets flooded & closed in many areas and still raining. May have to drive out in my truck to get my Mother In-Law home from work in a little bit. All patients cancelled and she's stuck there with a low profile car.


Same here the water has no place else to go. We've been under that line of stormy and heavy rain now since early this morning and it rarely lets up.

water not yet in my house but probably in others in our neighborhood.

The East Coast of Florida has been hammered by Isaac with all the rain.
Wish it would move out soon and allow others to get some rain.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time: 17:18:00Z
Coordinates: 27.4167N 87.3667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.4 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,521 meters (~ 4,990 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 12° at 47 knots (From the NNE at ~ 54.0 mph)
Air Temp: 15.1°C* (~ 59.2°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 48 knots (~ 55.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 47 knots (~ 54.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 13 mm/hr (~ 0.51 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormPro:

Hey, I asked this on the blog earlier and didn't get an answer... I think you can probably point me in the right direction..Really confused...NHC shows a slosh map that shows a possible 12 surge at Mandeville...NWS shows 5-8.... Know where it would be best to look?

Both are correct. Slosh maps tend to be a "worst possible case"
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting StormTracker2K:


23,000 people in Orlando were without power earlier this morning. Infact my power went off 3 times as I was trying to get ready for work.



My power also went off for a short time during that last Tornado warned cell that went through
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Right on the borderline of contaminated. Is it 0.75" rain rate or higher or is it higher THAN 0.75?

ime: 17:04:30Z
Coordinates: 27.5667N 87.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 517.9 mb (~ 15.29 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 5,554 meters (~ 18,222 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 245 meters (~ 804 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 54° at 39 knots (From the NE at ~ 44.8 mph)
Air Temp: -1.0°C* (~ 30.2°F*)
Dew Pt: -1.0°C* (~ 30.2°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 45 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 46 knots (~ 52.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 19 mm/hr (~ 0.75 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bwi:
Corrected: Isaac has passed west of the buoy.

Pressure 987mb

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station =42003&unit=M&tz=STN

Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 190 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 16.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 20.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.8 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 7.1 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): NE ( 54 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 987.3 mb


Looks like Isaac went straight over the bouy. The graphs are great - and it's a good pressure reading.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ime: 17:01:00Z
Coordinates: 27.7833N 87.5833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 433.5 mb (~ 12.80 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 6,946 meters (~ 22,789 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 336 meters (~ 1,102 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 71° at 50 knots (From the ENE at ~ 57.5 mph)
Air Temp: -9.0°C (~ 15.8°F)
Dew Pt: -10.3°C (~ 13.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 45 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr (~ 0.31 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Isaac is currently in the process of wrapping deep convection from the south around to the northeast quadrant. He appears to have more than half of an eye wall completed.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JasonRE:
Does anyone think this storm has any potential to get to a Cat. 2 before tomorrow's landfall?


They are very unpredictable. I always plan for the worst and hope for the best.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Matt74:
I'm not saying Florida is not being affected. All I'm saying is it seems like a lot less comments than a few days ago when ppl thought it was gonna be a direct hit on Tampa , or when some were posting a cat 3 or 4 in the gulf.


Some of us are without power too... and the weekend is always busier because people have work/school during the week.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Matt74:
I'm not saying Florida is not being affected. All I'm saying is it seems like a lot less comments than a few days ago when ppl thought it was gonna be a direct hit on Tampa , or when some were posting a cat 3 or 4 in the gulf.


Isn't that normal? Also, I don't ever remember anyone posting or forecasting a direct hit on Tampa. That is pretty tough to do with a storm coming from the SW.
Member Since: June 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1340
Quoting LargoFl:
well alot of people lost power and do not forget, this is a work day, for me i dont care so much about what some post about, its their right to do so but for most of us, we care about the people in danger and we do post about it..IF..it came to tampa, we would be posting about that..when it goes to new orleans we will be posting alot about that too..dont worry so much about what other people post about ok..only causes trouble and its meaningless in times of danger like it is today


23,000 people in Orlando were without power earlier this morning. Infact my power went off 3 times as I was trying to get ready for work.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CajunCrawfishhunter:
Can anyone tell me what we would expect here in Lafayette LA?


If it goes straight for N.O. like it seems to be doing, you might catch some of the NW quadrant of the storm, which will bring some of the higher winds of the storm. Although, it should be weakened by the time you get them.

Secure your yard and anything possibly effected by wind and make preps in case power goes out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
122 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN SARASOTA COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 121 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 12 MILES SOUTH OF MYAKKA CITY...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NORTH PORT...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MYAKKA CITY.
MYAKKA HEAD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

&&

LAT...LON 2747 8231 2751 8206 2716 8206 2715 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 168DEG 31KT 2721 8210

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time: 17:07:30Z
Coordinates: 27.5N 87.45W
Acft. Static Air Press: 612.7 mb (~ 18.09 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 4,213 meters (~ 13,822 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.4 mb (~ 29.63 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 56° at 38 knots (From the NE/ENE at ~ 43.7 mph)
Air Temp: 4.0°C* (~ 39.2°F*)
Dew Pt: 4.0°C* (~ 39.2°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 42 knots (~ 48.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 44 knots (~ 50.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 6 mm/hr (~ 0.24 in/hr)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PRweathercenter:

Hey, thanks for the info! Listening to this is better than the TWC! You guys should listen to this, it talks about the wave that just had come off Africa being similar to Hugo. Great info thanks!

This future storm looks like it could be aiming close to the East Coast. Plus we have another possible storm in the gulf a few days from now too. Wow man this is crazy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JeffM:
Amazing how slow the blog is compared to yesterday.


That's what happen when you take away the idea of a Cat 3 or 4 plowing into NOLA down to a more realistic landfall of a cat 1, maybe. Less potential of destruction.
But, you can't take your eye off this crazy, poorly organized storm. Anything can happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JeffM:
Amazing how slow the blog is compared to yesterday.

I think alot of bloggers on the east coast of fl are out of action I mean electric, flooding wise, and the gulf states are prolly getting ready
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE- LE E-
1150 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING..


Thanks Largo, for this important update.

Dr. Masters said early this morning tides were 2' below normal in St.Pete, but I was thinking that this would change when Issac bands stop blowing us offshore from the East, and we start to get winds from the backside of Issac coming up at us from the West.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I was expecting Issac more to have a bigger CDO plus an eye by now

Hey, I asked this on the blog earlier and didn't get an answer... I think you can probably point me in the right direction..Really confused...NHC shows a slosh map that shows a possible 12 surge at Mandeville...NWS shows 5-8.... Know where it would be best to look?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
by the way do we had 98L tagged on the African wave yet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I was expecting Issac more to have a bigger CDO plus an eye by now


Same here. Dry air to the south is still inhibiting though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JeffM:
Amazing how slow the blog is compared to yesterday.


As a storm is pending and the path unclear, a lot of people come on here for information regarding the future path and impacts to them. Now that the projected path has greatly narrowed and the threat to huge populations has dimished, the blog will quiet down. Obviously, the impacts are still significant to New Orleans and others along the Norther Gulf Coast.
Member Since: June 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1340
The AF aircraft is currently descending in a spiral to lower altitude, in a band of 50kt+ winds, as it prepares to commence its first run to the center of the storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
368. bwi
Corrected: Isaac has passed west of the buoy.

Pressure 987mb

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station =42003&unit=M&tz=STN

Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 190 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 16.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 20.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.8 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 7.1 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): NE ( 54 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 987.3 mb
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
Quoting BlxMS:
Until this morning, I couldn't escape thinking about how much the official track changed on Katrina from five or so days out to ultimate landfall. Finally, this morning I am feeling a bit better here in Biloxi. Certainly, isaac is not even in KATRINA's league, but since 2005, they ALL concern me. General agreement from the well informed WU crowd that Biloxi is pretty much safe now??

Link
Not even close to being safe!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I was expecting Issac more to have a bigger CDO plus an eye by now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Matt74:
I'm not saying Florida is not being affected. All I'm saying is it seems like a lot less comments than a few days ago when ppl thought it was gonna be a direct hit on Tampa , or when some were posting a cat 3 or 4 in the gulf.
well alot of people lost power and do not forget, this is a work day, for me i dont care so much about what some post about, its their right to do so but for most of us, we care about the people in danger and we do post about it..IF..it came to tampa, we would be posting about that..when it goes to new orleans we will be posting alot about that too..dont worry so much about what other people post about ok..only causes trouble and its meaningless in times of danger like it is today
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42277
Quoting Grothar:


Same here in Broward. I saw further North of us is even worse



Thunder is booming. Lots of lightening. Lights flickering. Be prepared ahead.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Quoting waterskiman:

If you get a compass you can see the degrees on there gives you your N 360 degrees S 180 E 90 and W 270

Think of 4 x 9 = 36 only it's a zero added to product. Each piece of the pie is 90 degrees.
3 x 9 = 27 so due west is 270 degrees.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JeffM:
Amazing how slow the blog is compared to yesterday.


Still a work day for most. Schools are all open today on the MS coast as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hello guys I see Issac is not looking as good as expected
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JeffM:
Amazing how slow the blog is compared to yesterday.


A lot of people started school now so that would explain the inactivity. It'll probably be active again in the evening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 409 - 359

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron