Little change to Isaac, but storm poses a serious storm surge threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:25 PM GMT on August 27, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac has changed little in strength or organization this morning, as the storm heads northwest at 14 mph towards the Central Gulf Coast. There are two hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm, and Isaac's central pressure held steady at 989 mb at the 8:30 am and 9:15 am center fixes. Top surface winds remain near 65 mph. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac is a very large storm, but isn't very symmetric. Heavy thunderstorm activity is lacking on the southeast side, where 10 knots of wind shear is driving dry air into the circulation. The center is surrounded by a ring of echoes now, which was not the case on Sunday. However, the echoes are weak. The 8:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters reported about half of a ragged eyewall, but the 9:15 am report did not mention any evidence of an eyewall. Isaac will have to form an eyewall in order to intensify significantly.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Isaac. Note the lack of heavy thunderstorm activity on the storm's southeast side, where dry air and wind shear are combining to interfere with development.

Isaac's rains
Isaac's heaviest rains have fallen along a swath from the east coast of Florida near West Palm Beach to the center of the state, just south of Orlando. West Palm Beach received 7.57" of rain from Isaac as of 10 am EDT this morning. A trained spotter in Western Boynton Beach reported 10" of rain from midnight to midnight Sunday. Heavy rains from Isaac are lingering over Cuba but have ended in Haiti and the Dominican Republic; flash floods in Haiti from Isaac's torrential rains killed at least nineteen, and two died in the Dominican Republic.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from Melbourne, Florida radar shows that Isaac has dumped a wide swath of 3+ inches of rain (orange colors) across the state.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs are fairly unified taking Isaac ashore near Southeast Louisiana late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, but continue to show major differences in what happens after that. It is still uncertain if a trough of low pressure passing to the north of Isaac will be able to turn the storm due north, as the ECMWF model is predicting, or bypass the storm, allowing a more west-northwest motion into western Louisiana, like the GFS model is predicting. In either case, Isaac is likely to slow down as it approaches the coast, which will increase the damage potential fro m its wind, storm surge, and rains. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model calls for 10 - 20 inches of rain over much of Louisiana. The ECMWF model predicts that these heavy rains will fall more over Mississippi. It appears likely that Arkansas will see some heavy rains from Isaac late in the week, which would help put a dent in the exceptional drought conditions there.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 8-day period from 2 am Monday August 27 to 2 am Tuesday September 4, from the 2 am EDT August 27 run of the GFS model. This model is predicting a wide swath of 5 - 10 inches of rain (orange colors) will affect portions of Louisiana. Additional very heavy rains are predicted for the Midwest, as moisture from Isaac interacts with a cold front. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac is currently crossing over a relatively cool eddy of water, which will keep intensification slow today. By tonight, the total heat content of the waters increases, which should aid intensification. Low wind shear of 10 knots or less is likely until landfall. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow to the north is not as strong as yesterday, which should also slow intensification today. The models forecast the upper-level outflow should improve by Tuesday. A storm this large will have trouble undergoing rapid intensification, and Isaac's most likely intensity at landfall will be as a Category 1 hurricane, which is what most of the intensity models are forecasting.


Figure 4. Track of Hurricane Gustav of 2008, which followed a path very similar to that of Isaac's predicted path.

Storm surge forecast for Isaac
Storm surge is the primary damage threat from Isaac. Isaac is a huge storm, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out 205 miles from the center. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina at landfall had tropical storm-force winds that extended out 230 miles from its center. Isaac's large size will enable it to set a large area of the ocean into motion, which will generate a large storm surge once the storm approaches land on the Gulf Coast. Water levels at Shell Beach, Louisiana, just east of New Orleans, were already elevated by 1' this morning. Conversely, water levels have fallen by 2' this morning at St. Petersburg, Florida, where strong offshore winds due to Isaac's counter-clockwise circulation have carried water away from the coast. The latest 6:30 am EDT Integrated Kinetic Energy analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Isaac's winds near 0.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, but the destructive potential of Isaacs's storm surge was 2.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. I expect this destructive potential will rise above 3 by time Isaac makes landfall, making Isaac's storm surge similar to that generated by Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008, which followed a path very similar to Isaac's predicted path. Gustav brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane to New Orleans: 9.5' to Lake Borgne on the east side of the city. A higher Category 2-scale surge occurred along the south-central coast of Louisiana, and was 12.5' high in Black Bay, forty miles southeast of New Orleans. Recent model runs indicate Isaac may slow down to a forward speed under 5 mph on Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, close to the coast. If Isaac is just offshore at this time, the coasts of Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle will be exposed to a large storm surge with battering waves for two high tide cycles. This sort of extending pounding will be capable of delivering more damage than the storm surge of Hurricane Gustav of 2008.

The affect of storm size and angle of approach on storm surge
A 2008 paper by Irish et al., The influence of storm size on hurricane surge, found that large storms like Isaac are capable to delivering a 30% larger storm surge to the coast than a smaller storm with the same maximum wind speeds. The angle with which the storm hit the coast is important, too--a storm moving due north or slightly east of north will deliver a storm surge about 10% greater than a storm moving NNW or NW. Consult our Storm Surge pages for detailed information on what the risk is for the coast. I expect that Isaac's storm surge will be about 30% higher than the typical surge one would expect based on the maximum wind speeds.

Isaac's storm surge will provide the first test of the newly-completed New Orleans levee system upgrade. In the wake of the disastrous storm surge flooding from Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Congress appropriated $14.5 billion to upgrade the New Orleans levee system to withstand a Category 3 hurricane storm surge. Katrina was a Category 3 storm at landfall, but the storm passed far enough to the east of the city that its storm surge was characteristic of a Category 1 - 2 storm at the places where the city's flood walls and levees failed. The new flood defenses were only partially completed in time for the arrival of Hurricane Gustav in 2008, which hit Central Louisiana as a Category 2 storm. Gustav brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane to New Orleans: 9.5' to Lake Borgne on the east side of the city. Since that time, the imposing 2-mile long IHNC Flood Barrier has been completed to block off the funnel-shaped pair of canals on the east side of the city. I expect New Orleans' new flood defenses will be able to hold back Isaac's surge, but areas outside the levees are at risk of heavy storm surge damage.


Figure 5. A portion of New Orleans' new $14.5 billion dollar flood defenses, as taken from an Army Corps of Engineers map.

New Orleans flood defense info
Army Corps of Engineers map of the new flood defenses
Army Corps of Engineers video showing the flood defenses
New York Times article, Vast Defenses Now Shielding New Orleans

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located in the Middle Atlantic, about 1050 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, and high wind shear should begin to tear the disturbance apart on Tuesday.

Another tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Sunday is located just south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance is moving west at 10 - 15 mph, and could arrive in the Lesser Antilles around September 2. Several models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression late this week, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning.

Angela Fritz will have a new post here by 6 pm EDT. I'm in Atlanta to help out The Weather Channel with their on-air hurricane coverage, and will doing a few 3-minute tropical updates at 30 minutes past the hour between 2:30 - 7:30 pm EDT today.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Isaac (chelina)
View from the north side of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge.
Tropical Storm Isaac
our street at noon today (seflagamma)
Aug 26, 2012: Isaac floods our street really bad. Now nearly 11
our street at noon today

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Quoting Fleetfox:
Anybody else notice that the Hurricane Hunters circled about three times earlier while heading out to Isaac? Why would they do this? Just curious if anybody might know. Sorry if it's already been discussed. Thanks.


Are you talking about what's going on off the NE coast of FLA?
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
Quoting Fleetfox:
Anybody else notice that the Hurricane Hunters circled about three times earlier while heading out to Isaac? Why would they do this? Just curious if anybody might know. Sorry if it's already been discussed. Thanks.

Going from travel altitude (20k feet) to data-collecting altitude (5k feet). When they have a longer run, and time-on-station isn't as important, they descend while moving to position. For this, it is better for them to travel at altitude, then descend. (it also allows them to get some mid-upper level air data while en route)

Check out the flight-level temp on Levi's recon page. (the rapid rise in temp corresponds with their drop in altitude)

Link
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5880
506. JeffM
Update still not up. Perhaps bumping it to a cane.
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:


It looks like more of a west movement in the loop.


I agree.
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Quoting floridabuckeyes:


Hey Gamma....couldnt agree more...this tail wont move and now on the latest radar views it looks like its filling in all the way down toward Cuba. Dont wish it on anybody, but its getting pretty flooded around here.


Us too -- icky, nasty, wet
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
The trajectory of Isaac would have made it extremely difficult for us to get a direct hit and even then the most it would have been was a minimal hurricane.



I've always been fascinated by this thinking. In my experience, even the "weakest" of hurricanes is not something to consider "minimal". Maybe I err on the side of caution, but to quote Ron White " it's not THAT the wind is blowin', it's WHAT the wind is blowin'". Even a "minimal" hurricane can send things flying and truly cause damage to property, especially in areas prone to storm surge damage. I'll add that it's not THAT the water is flowing it's WHERE the water is flowing.

I don't mean to be rude, I am fascinated by categorizing a hurricane as "minimal" in light of the energy involved.

Regards,

TheDewd
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Quoting seflagamma:


Thanks everyone for your comments on my comments.

PPulse, we have family in Wellington also, hubby's brother is there with his family. Hope they are OK.

Good luck and bring back pictures...


wish this training band would move but it looks like it is staying put...


Sounds pretty grim, Gamma.

Take care.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38052
thanks Isaac for more rain that we do not need or want

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I bet still 65mph at 2 pm.
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Quoting washingaway:
May finally be able to fend off some of that dry air. Still would have to mix out what is already entrained.



It looks like more of a west movement in the loop.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


How much rain did you get? I picked up 1.79" at my place since early this morning.


A little over 2" since midnight.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Yeah, there is a crisis developing out it Wellington, severe flooding. I do apologize the coverage of Isaac is minus a few bloggers. No disrepect and not intentional on my part at least.

Heading out to Wellington in 30min to try and rescue my mother in law from work and check the flooding situation at her house. I'll get pics and post them however, I may not be able to get there.


Thanks everyone for your comments on my comments.

PPulse, we have family in Wellington also, hubby's brother is there with his family. Hope they are OK.

Good luck and bring back pictures...


wish this training band would move but it looks like it is staying put...
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Good Afternoon,

Tropical Storm Isaac continues to slowly strengthen as he moves into the central Gulf of Mexico. The latest information from the hurricane hunters show slowly lowering pressures and a ragged eye approximately 26 miles in diameter. The last 4 fixes from the hurricane hunters show a trend more toward the west-northwest as opposed to the northwest motion forecast by the National Hurricane Center. This is most likely in response to the high pressure system to Isaac's north being a bit stronger than forecasted. Model guidance continue to be in conflict with the European model and the UKMET on the eastern side of the envelope and the GFDL and the GFS on the western flank. Intensity forecast also continues to be a challenge. Currently Isaac is forecast by the NHC to make landfall at Categeory 1 status. Given the warm gulf temps, low wind shear, and good upper level outflow i would not be surprised to see Isaac make a run at Category 2 status before landfall. Since confidence in final landfall is low everyone from SE Texas to the Mississippi coastlines should monitor Isaac's progress. Subtle shifts or jogs in track could influence Isaac's eventual landfall location. Regardless of exact location of landfall, Isaac will have an influence over a large area due to his size. Also storm surge amounts are likely to be greater than the windspeeds would indicate due to his massive windfield. Some models are hinting at a slowing or stall near the coast with a bend more to the left or west, which would also allow water to pile up along the coastlines. I expect a storm surge of 8-12 feet to the east of landfall location. Depending upon landfall location SE Texas could feel impacts of Isaac. A track near New Orleans would result in only brisk northerly winds but a track near SW Louisiana would result in heavy winds and rain as Isaac makes his closest path to our east.


Thank You
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Hurricane at next update?
Member Since: August 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
I'm not sure what Isaac can't do. Its small central core seems to be farther west than the model cones. and spinning faster than the surrounding arms.
The rain blob headed up the Florida peninsula, seems to have a slightly different speed and trajectory than the center of Isaac.

Thanks for the N.O. detail links.
What was built is Huohge! It can handle the storm surge from Isaac. What about areas that are NOT behind the wall? Is there an around the end of the wall, flood possibility? In the event of a breach, has the corps developed breach-blocking technology? That is sorely needed.
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Anybody else notice that the Hurricane Hunters circled about three times earlier while heading out to Isaac? Why would they do this? Just curious if anybody might know. Sorry if it's already been discussed. Thanks.
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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 137 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING OVER THE EAST COAST
METRO AND COASTAL AREAS STREAMING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS BAND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINFALL RATES RANGING FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES EVERY TWO HOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE AREAS
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY TO THE BROWARD
AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38052
May finally be able to fend off some of that dry air. Still would have to mix out what is already entrained.

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Quoting WeathermanAG:

Hurricane Kirk next week!

I smell Irene wannabe. Still too far out there, they said Isaac would go up the east coast too.
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Quoting WeathermanAG:

Hurricane Kirk next week!


With a track like that today... this will end up in Mexico for sure on Sept 7th.
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

It always makes me nervous at the thought of a storm coming up Vermillion Bay...

I've got enough Abita to last a while :)


Good luck Hanna
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Quoting emcf30:


At news time the outages were down to around 500. That was only OUC and Progress Energy Customers in CFL. Don't know about FPL Customers in the area


How much rain did you get? I picked up 1.79" at my place since early this morning.
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Quoting WeathermanAG:

Hurricane Kirk next week!

Honey I hate to tell you but its WAY to early to make a track on that
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absolutely gorgeous here, sunny and breezy. good weather for securing things.
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Quoting WeathermanAG:

Could do without another c2 here in Virginia Beach.
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Quoting CajunCrawfishhunter:



Thanks Hanna, Lots going on over here. If this thing tracks south of us it will not be pretty for Iberia Parrish or even Lafayette. Time for me to go get my Malibu and Pineapple

It always makes me nervous at the thought of a storm coming up Vermillion Bay...

I've got enough Abita to last a while :)
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481. Gaboo
20+ inches so far in Wellington, plus the remainder of that huge band still to come. You folks up in Alabama thinking you're in the clear are in for a rude awakening.
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Got us off the rig yesterday evening. From Morgan city to Denham springs La there was either no gas or lines at the pumps. Got gas this AM, ran the generators, 3 cases of beer, tequila, and margarita mix........I'm ready now.
Now that's how you prep for a cane!!!
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Add 18mb to HWRF to correct for it's over-initialization.


I notice on satellite that it looks like there may be a westward jog occurring, or else convection building to the west.



Whatever happens, I am prepared. Got the house boarded up on the windward side already.

I bought a digital video camera to record the action, and depending on intensity I may even drive around a bit in it to see what's going on. I intend to go shoot some before/after film of the local river levels, since we should get quite a bit of backwash from the storm surge and persistent winds, in addition to what looks like 5 to 15 inches of widespread rains in this area of Louisiana.

I seriously doubt this would ever beat the 1983 Natalbany and Tickfaw river floods, but it might produce a significant rise.

For records, I will also go to Courtney bridge for the before shot to show where the water level was in 1983, where it is today, and where it will be after during the worst of the inland flooding. The real record flood level just about 8 feet above the official record, since the guage was under water.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Report in Wellington that canals are overflowing, streets flooded & closed in many areas and still raining. May have to drive out in my truck to get my Mother In-Law home from work in a little bit. All patients cancelled and she's stuck there with a low profile car.
They are pumping below control elevation in the Acreage, but not keeping up with the input.  Canals, roads seriously under water.  Creeping up on homes.  This is a serious situation that was not unanticipated and if rains do not stop soon, many will be in dangerous situation..
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Good Afternoon,

Tropical Storm Isaac continues to slowly strengthen as he moves into the central Gulf of Mexico. The latest information from the hurricane hunters show slowly lowering pressures and a ragged eye approximately 26 miles in diameter. The last 4 fixes from the hurricane hunters show a trend more toward the west-northwest as opposed to the northwest motion forecast by the National Hurricane Center. This is most likely in response to the high pressure system to Isaac's north being a bit stronger than forecasted. Model guidance continue to be in conflict with the European model and the UKMET on the eastern side of the envelope and the GFDL and the GFS on the western flank. Intensity forecast also continues to be a challenge. Currently Isaac is forecast by the NHC to make landfall at Categeory 1 status. Given the warm gulf temps, low wind shear, and good upper level outflow i would not be surprised to see Isaac make a run at Category 2 status before landfall. Since confidence in final landfall is low everyone from SE Texas to the Mississippi coastlines should monitor Isaac's progress. Subtle shifts or jogs in track could influence Isaac's eventual landfall location. Regardless of exact location of landfall, Isaac will have an influence over a large area due to his size. Also storm surge amounts are likely to be greater than the windspeeds would indicate due to his massive windfield. Some models are hinting at a slowing or stall near the coast with a bend more to the left or west, which would also allow water to pile up along the coastlines. I expect a storm surge of 8-12 feet to the east of landfall location. Depending upon landfall location SE Texas could feel impacts of Isaac. A track near New Orleans would result in only brisk northerly winds but a track near SW Louisiana would result in heavy winds and rain as Isaac makes his closest path to our east.


I feel Isaac will be stronger than most think only because I believe Isaac is going further west than NHC depicts. Longer time on water gives Isaac time to strengthen.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
122 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN SARASOTA COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 121 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 12 MILES SOUTH OF MYAKKA CITY...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NORTH PORT...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MYAKKA CITY.
MYAKKA HEAD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38052
Latest Video Update!! Thanks for Watching!!

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Hurricane Kirk next week!
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Might have been posted already, but HWRF shifts to Mississippi Coast.

The stronger, the more north..I think.
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471. Skyepony (Mod)
Aquaimage13~ I got ready for a Tropical Storm 5 & 6 days ago since I was running off for 4 days. Glad I did too. Hurricane parties abound around here lastnight when I rolled back in town.

Good luck with the boats.

We got lucky & that orange training band that was so bad down south has stepped off the coast for the moment..

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Quoting hurricanehanna:

Happy to oblige ;) We've had enough rain for a while. I know you guys need it!



Thanks Hanna, Lots going on over here. If this thing tracks south of us it will not be pretty for Iberia Parrish or even Lafayette. Time for me to go get my Malibu and Pineapple
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Quoting stormchaser19:


949 Mb pressure is a strong Cat.3


HWRF is on meth. It's not going anywhere that strong. Cat1 max.
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Quoting gbreezegirl:
Getting darker and breezier here too, but so far no rain yet. Very gloomy.


Its amazing how far the weather from this storm is reaching. Looks like it could bust out here anytime and im in southeast nc...wilmington
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Yeah, there is a crisis developing out it Wellington, severe flooding. I do apologize the coverage of Isaac is minus a few bloggers. No disrepect and not intentional on my part at least.

Heading out to Wellington in 30min to try and rescue my mother in law from work and check the flooding situation at her house. I'll get pics and post them however, I may not be able to get there.
Stay safe when driving up there, take your time, and avoid and local streets where the water might be deep.
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We are not getting it as bad as the east coast with isaacs tail in the upper keys but the wind is still around 30 with some higher gusts and some squally brief rain. He got a long tail so can't see it letting up anytime soon.
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465. MTWX
Afternoon all!! Man it's been a busy weekend! Hopefully things don't get too bad, but I am thinking Surge and the torrential rains are going to cause the biggest issues...

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Quoting stormchaser19:


949 Mb pressure is a Cat.3
it was a joke becaus this thing has 65 mph winds and 987-986mb pressure
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WEST COAST-OUR TROUBLES ARE BEGINNINGSEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
145 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

FLC049-057-081-105-271800-
/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0037.000000T0000Z-120827T1800Z/
HARDEE FL-POLK FL-HILLSBOROUGH FL-MANATEE FL-
145 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MANATEE...SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH...SOUTHWESTERN POLK
AND NORTHWESTERN HARDEE COUNTIES...

AT 144 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO...LOCATED NEAR DUETTE...OR 18 MILES WEST OF
WAUCHULA...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MYAKKA HEAD.
DUETTE.
FORT LONESOME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38052
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:


You can send it over here to Houston... We will take it.

Happy to oblige ;) We've had enough rain for a while. I know you guys need it!
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Good Afternoon,

Tropical Storm Isaac continues to slowly strengthen as he moves into the central Gulf of Mexico. The latest information from the hurricane hunters show slowly lowering pressures and a ragged eye approximately 26 miles in diameter. The last 4 fixes from the hurricane hunters show a trend more toward the west-northwest as opposed to the northwest motion forecast by the National Hurricane Center. This is most likely in response to the high pressure system to Isaac's north being a bit stronger than forecasted. Model guidance continue to be in conflict with the European model and the UKMET on the eastern side of the envelope and the GFDL and the GFS on the western flank. Intensity forecast also continues to be a challenge. Currently Isaac is forecast by the NHC to make landfall at Categeory 1 status. Given the warm gulf temps, low wind shear, and good upper level outflow i would not be surprised to see Isaac make a run at Category 2 status before landfall. Since confidence in final landfall is low everyone from SE Texas to the Mississippi coastlines should monitor Isaac's progress. Subtle shifts or jogs in track could influence Isaac's eventual landfall location. Regardless of exact location of landfall, Isaac will have an influence over a large area due to his size. Also storm surge amounts are likely to be greater than the windspeeds would indicate due to his massive windfield. Some models are hinting at a slowing or stall near the coast with a bend more to the left or west, which would also allow water to pile up along the coastlines. I expect a storm surge of 8-12 feet to the east of landfall location. Depending upon landfall location SE Texas could feel impacts of Isaac. A track near New Orleans would result in only brisk northerly winds but a track near SW Louisiana would result in heavy winds and rain as Isaac makes his closest path to our east.
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Dry air is our friend !

Except for the Florida East coast, where there isn't much.

That's the difference, I think.
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Quoting Methurricanes:
at 949 with thsi storm thats what 80mph?


949 Mb pressure is a strong Cat.3
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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