Little change to Isaac, but storm poses a serious storm surge threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:25 PM GMT on August 27, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac has changed little in strength or organization this morning, as the storm heads northwest at 14 mph towards the Central Gulf Coast. There are two hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm, and Isaac's central pressure held steady at 989 mb at the 8:30 am and 9:15 am center fixes. Top surface winds remain near 65 mph. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac is a very large storm, but isn't very symmetric. Heavy thunderstorm activity is lacking on the southeast side, where 10 knots of wind shear is driving dry air into the circulation. The center is surrounded by a ring of echoes now, which was not the case on Sunday. However, the echoes are weak. The 8:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters reported about half of a ragged eyewall, but the 9:15 am report did not mention any evidence of an eyewall. Isaac will have to form an eyewall in order to intensify significantly.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Isaac. Note the lack of heavy thunderstorm activity on the storm's southeast side, where dry air and wind shear are combining to interfere with development.

Isaac's rains
Isaac's heaviest rains have fallen along a swath from the east coast of Florida near West Palm Beach to the center of the state, just south of Orlando. West Palm Beach received 7.57" of rain from Isaac as of 10 am EDT this morning. A trained spotter in Western Boynton Beach reported 10" of rain from midnight to midnight Sunday. Heavy rains from Isaac are lingering over Cuba but have ended in Haiti and the Dominican Republic; flash floods in Haiti from Isaac's torrential rains killed at least nineteen, and two died in the Dominican Republic.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from Melbourne, Florida radar shows that Isaac has dumped a wide swath of 3+ inches of rain (orange colors) across the state.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs are fairly unified taking Isaac ashore near Southeast Louisiana late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, but continue to show major differences in what happens after that. It is still uncertain if a trough of low pressure passing to the north of Isaac will be able to turn the storm due north, as the ECMWF model is predicting, or bypass the storm, allowing a more west-northwest motion into western Louisiana, like the GFS model is predicting. In either case, Isaac is likely to slow down as it approaches the coast, which will increase the damage potential fro m its wind, storm surge, and rains. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model calls for 10 - 20 inches of rain over much of Louisiana. The ECMWF model predicts that these heavy rains will fall more over Mississippi. It appears likely that Arkansas will see some heavy rains from Isaac late in the week, which would help put a dent in the exceptional drought conditions there.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 8-day period from 2 am Monday August 27 to 2 am Tuesday September 4, from the 2 am EDT August 27 run of the GFS model. This model is predicting a wide swath of 5 - 10 inches of rain (orange colors) will affect portions of Louisiana. Additional very heavy rains are predicted for the Midwest, as moisture from Isaac interacts with a cold front. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac is currently crossing over a relatively cool eddy of water, which will keep intensification slow today. By tonight, the total heat content of the waters increases, which should aid intensification. Low wind shear of 10 knots or less is likely until landfall. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow to the north is not as strong as yesterday, which should also slow intensification today. The models forecast the upper-level outflow should improve by Tuesday. A storm this large will have trouble undergoing rapid intensification, and Isaac's most likely intensity at landfall will be as a Category 1 hurricane, which is what most of the intensity models are forecasting.


Figure 4. Track of Hurricane Gustav of 2008, which followed a path very similar to that of Isaac's predicted path.

Storm surge forecast for Isaac
Storm surge is the primary damage threat from Isaac. Isaac is a huge storm, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out 205 miles from the center. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina at landfall had tropical storm-force winds that extended out 230 miles from its center. Isaac's large size will enable it to set a large area of the ocean into motion, which will generate a large storm surge once the storm approaches land on the Gulf Coast. Water levels at Shell Beach, Louisiana, just east of New Orleans, were already elevated by 1' this morning. Conversely, water levels have fallen by 2' this morning at St. Petersburg, Florida, where strong offshore winds due to Isaac's counter-clockwise circulation have carried water away from the coast. The latest 6:30 am EDT Integrated Kinetic Energy analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Isaac's winds near 0.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, but the destructive potential of Isaacs's storm surge was 2.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. I expect this destructive potential will rise above 3 by time Isaac makes landfall, making Isaac's storm surge similar to that generated by Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008, which followed a path very similar to Isaac's predicted path. Gustav brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane to New Orleans: 9.5' to Lake Borgne on the east side of the city. A higher Category 2-scale surge occurred along the south-central coast of Louisiana, and was 12.5' high in Black Bay, forty miles southeast of New Orleans. Recent model runs indicate Isaac may slow down to a forward speed under 5 mph on Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, close to the coast. If Isaac is just offshore at this time, the coasts of Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle will be exposed to a large storm surge with battering waves for two high tide cycles. This sort of extending pounding will be capable of delivering more damage than the storm surge of Hurricane Gustav of 2008.

The affect of storm size and angle of approach on storm surge
A 2008 paper by Irish et al., The influence of storm size on hurricane surge, found that large storms like Isaac are capable to delivering a 30% larger storm surge to the coast than a smaller storm with the same maximum wind speeds. The angle with which the storm hit the coast is important, too--a storm moving due north or slightly east of north will deliver a storm surge about 10% greater than a storm moving NNW or NW. Consult our Storm Surge pages for detailed information on what the risk is for the coast. I expect that Isaac's storm surge will be about 30% higher than the typical surge one would expect based on the maximum wind speeds.

Isaac's storm surge will provide the first test of the newly-completed New Orleans levee system upgrade. In the wake of the disastrous storm surge flooding from Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Congress appropriated $14.5 billion to upgrade the New Orleans levee system to withstand a Category 3 hurricane storm surge. Katrina was a Category 3 storm at landfall, but the storm passed far enough to the east of the city that its storm surge was characteristic of a Category 1 - 2 storm at the places where the city's flood walls and levees failed. The new flood defenses were only partially completed in time for the arrival of Hurricane Gustav in 2008, which hit Central Louisiana as a Category 2 storm. Gustav brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane to New Orleans: 9.5' to Lake Borgne on the east side of the city. Since that time, the imposing 2-mile long IHNC Flood Barrier has been completed to block off the funnel-shaped pair of canals on the east side of the city. I expect New Orleans' new flood defenses will be able to hold back Isaac's surge, but areas outside the levees are at risk of heavy storm surge damage.


Figure 5. A portion of New Orleans' new $14.5 billion dollar flood defenses, as taken from an Army Corps of Engineers map.

New Orleans flood defense info
Army Corps of Engineers map of the new flood defenses
Army Corps of Engineers video showing the flood defenses
New York Times article, Vast Defenses Now Shielding New Orleans

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located in the Middle Atlantic, about 1050 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, and high wind shear should begin to tear the disturbance apart on Tuesday.

Another tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Sunday is located just south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance is moving west at 10 - 15 mph, and could arrive in the Lesser Antilles around September 2. Several models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression late this week, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning.

Angela Fritz will have a new post here by 6 pm EDT. I'm in Atlanta to help out The Weather Channel with their on-air hurricane coverage, and will doing a few 3-minute tropical updates at 30 minutes past the hour between 2:30 - 7:30 pm EDT today.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Isaac (chelina)
View from the north side of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge.
Tropical Storm Isaac
our street at noon today (seflagamma)
Aug 26, 2012: Isaac floods our street really bad. Now nearly 11
our street at noon today

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Quoting KRL:
In Palm Beach County Isaac is definitely giving new meaning and much greater respect for the descriptor "It's just a Tropical Storm". LOL

..yes thats for sure, everyone just thinks about high winds..we are finding out whats just as dangerous, maybe even more so in the long term
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39311
Isaac does look to have increased the winds a notch from the last recon collection. A couple of near 70s. It's getting closer to the upgrade.
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Good afternoon

Although several of the temperature sets are flagged as contaminated that does not mean that the surface wind for that observation is as well. Where a significant observation is shown in bold, for example a surface wind ob., that data itself is not suspect even though the temperature data might be flagged.

See this note at the bottom of a decoded page set of observations

"Significant observations that are not suspect are noted in bold."

Surface winds of close to 70 MPH are accurate and reflect the windfield responding to the pressure drop. Expect Cat 1 within an hour or two.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
656. CJ5
Quoting WeatherMSK:
Wow the republicans delayed the convention till tomorrow but decide to lift the delay about 30 mins ago to start the convention. Real smart move with tornadoes just to the south east.


Wrong. They opened the convention and then closed it. It was a formality. There is no real convention going on right now.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No, the problem is, is that you posted a data set that's 30+ minutes old from a different location in the cyclone.

The 61kt SFMR reading is not contaminated and is completely valid. Isaac could be upgraded to a 70mph cyclone easily, and we haven't even seen the northeastern quadrant.


I know what you say, that 61kt is right... I said 70 mph but that is under 1+in/h of rain...which is altering it ... you're right..
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
UKMET has Isaac put on the breaks and stall over the MS coastline.

oh dont say that..another debby?..please we cant take any more rain
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39311
Quoting Times2:


Right it seems pretty definitive. Hmmm!


Good, I am NOT seeing things then
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650. KRL
In Palm Beach County Isaac is definitely giving new meaning and much greater respect for the descriptor "It's just a Tropical Storm". LOL

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Hi Levi

I used to love watching your videos until three days ago. Three days ago I started getting 10-20 new tabs from Comp USA.

Now today I got 20-30 new tabs and 30 new windows and locked my machine up. Rebooted and tried again, same thing. Went to my brothers house thinking it was my machine. Same thing happened over there.

Any way I can maybe go to youtube or someplace else to see the videos?

Thanks
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Quoting MississippiWx:
12z model runs...

Euro-Mississippi
HWRF-Mississippi
Canadian-Mississippi
UKMET-Mississippi
NAM-New Orleans
GFS-Buras, Louisiana
GFDL-Morgan City, Louisiana (extreme western outlier)


It's going to pretty much follow a similar track than Katrina ON IT's ANIVERSARY!! Thank God it is far more weaker.
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Just back for check up.. thanks again everyone.

I don't think anyone figured on getting this line of storms on east coast of Fla for so long...

men wading down our street it is above their knees..

have not checked gauge yet but got to be now close to 12" of rain..

looks like a lake out front.
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646. A4Guy
In Broward (Eastern...Fort Lauderdale)

Let me tell ya..been through Frances, Jeanne, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Fay...and these rains are the worst I have seen from any of those tropical systems, except for Wilma, which gave me 8" of rain over two hours in a slow moving storm two nights before the storm hit.
The winds are also just as bad as any of those, except for Wilma, which shredded my mahogany and live oak trees. Amazingly, I have not lost one branch from my trees...just twigs!

These squalls are simply amazing. I can't wait to get the final number from highest wind gust at FXE and total rain. Good grief!
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Quoting FrancesJeanne:
Man, it is NASTY on the Treasure Coast! Heavy flooding, numerous roads impassable, schools in two counties on "Code Yellow" with kids in main buildings/corridors and urging parents not to venture out to pick them up until conditions improve, and several dozen homes damaged by a tornado in Indian River County...just walked through a good 6-8" of water in my office parking lot to get home. Local news says the city of Port St. Lucie is currently getting 1-2" of rain per hour and we've got an entire afternoon left under this band. On the bright side, my a/c is fixed! (thank god, 'cause there was gonna be no opening the windows in this mess!) - loving the a/c guys for braving the roads right now. :)
..gee its just awful over there today and from the radar, not going to be over anytime soon
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39311
Quoting Bitmap7:


But the data says ~1.65in/hr and thats high
No, all of that data has a rain rate of <7mm/hr.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


I noticed that earlier when I saw this loop.. he does look to be going more west.



Right it seems pretty definitive. Hmmm!
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ISAAC IS STRENGTHENING... FINALLY

Time: 18:01:30Z
Coordinates: 25.7167N 85.65W
Acft. Static Air Press: 841.0 mb (~ 24.83 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,443 meters (~ 4,734 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 241° at 58 knots (From the WSW at ~ 66.7 mph)
Air Temp: 16.4°C* (~ 61.5°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 60 knots (~ 69.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 60 knots (~ 69.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 7 mm/hr (~ 0.28 in/hr)

Time: 18:00:30Z
Coordinates: 25.7667N 85.7W
Acft. Static Air Press: 840.9 mb (~ 24.83 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,435 meters (~ 4,708 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 242° at 53 knots (From the WSW at ~ 60.9 mph)
Air Temp: 15.3°C* (~ 59.5°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 55 knots (~ 63.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 17 mm/hr (~ 0.67 in/hr)
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How can the pressure drop over 2 days from 1000mb to 984 but the TS winds radii nor the max wind speed go up?
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I sure hope Stephanie Abrams has a few jugs of water...in case she gets in a bind...
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39311
Man, it is NASTY on the Treasure Coast! Heavy flooding, numerous roads impassable, schools in two counties on "Code Yellow" with kids in main buildings/corridors and urging parents not to venture out to pick them up until conditions improve, and several dozen homes damaged by a tornado in Indian River County...just walked through a good 6-8" of water in my office parking lot to get home. Local news says the city of Port St. Lucie is currently getting 1-2" of rain per hour and we've got an entire afternoon left under this band. On the bright side, my a/c is fixed! (thank god, 'cause there was gonna be no opening the windows in this mess!) - loving the a/c guys for braving the roads right now. :)
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:


I noticed that earlier when I saw this loop.. he does look to be going more west.


Yes look that way...
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634. FOREX
Quoting Felix2007:


WAY TOO FAR OUT. We still don't even know where Isaac is going 2 days out, not a chance we know where Kirk's going in 10+ days, oh and it hasn't even developed yet. At first they were saying Isaac would ride up the east coast too.


Didn't the most recent GFS not have Kirk in the Gulf anymore??
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12z model runs...

Euro-Mississippi
HWRF-Mississippi
Canadian-Mississippi
UKMET-Mississippi
NAM-New Orleans
GFS-Buras, Louisiana
GFDL-Morgan City, Louisiana (extreme western outlier)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes it is
No, the problem is, is that you posted a data set that's 30+ minutes old from a different location in the cyclone.

The 61kt SFMR reading is not contaminated and is completely valid. Isaac could be upgraded to a 70mph cyclone easily, and we haven't even seen the northeastern quadrant.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Times2:

Agree something is fishy.It looks due west on SAT and the track confirms it. IDK thats not good.


I saw this loop earlier and thought the same thing.. he seems headed more west.

Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
From the current recon...
why did they flew around there for???



THEY DROPPED IN ALTITUDE IN A CIRCLE TO MAKE A CENTER RUN AT PROPER ELEVATION.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's weird because none of the raw data has high rain rates:


180130 2543N 08539W 8410 01443 //// +164 //// 241058 060 060 007 01
180200 2542N 08538W 8408 01450 //// +181 //// 239060 063 061 007 01
180230 2541N 08537W 8408 01455 //// +183 //// 243054 058 058 006 01
180300 2540N 08535W 8413 01453 //// +185 //// 244051 051 055 006 01
180330 2538N 08534W 8409 01461 //// +189 //// 243053 054 055 005 01
180400 2537N 08532W 8410 01464 //// +197 //// 241052 054 055 005 01
180430 2536N 08531W 8409 01466 //// +187 //// 242048 051 050 003 01


But the data says ~1.65in/hr and thats high
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Quoting uptxcoast:


C-130's are at Ellington Field after moving from Biloxi last night. Most flights will now be out of Houston.

Gotcha. I couldn't remember if they stationed any P-3s out of Biloxi, of they kept most of those at St. Croix.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5886
http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/pl ots/storm_09
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Cone narrowed very slightly from this morning......Mayor Landrieux says NHC has more confidence in track.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Yep!! I did see em



I saw the same thing too
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Latest HH fix is 40 miles almost due west from the last missions final fix!!
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Time: 18:02:00Z
Coordinates: 25.7N 85.6333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 840.8 mb (~ 24.83 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,450 meters (~ 4,757 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 239° at 60 knots (From the WSW at ~ 69.0 mph)
Air Temp: 18.1°C* (~ 64.6°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 63 knots (~ 72.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 61 knots (~ 70.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 7 mm/hr (~ 0.28 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

this is not contaminated though
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621. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Fleetfox:
Anybody else notice that the Hurricane Hunters circled about three times earlier while heading out to Isaac? Why would they do this? Just curious if anybody might know. Sorry if it's already been discussed. Thanks.


They fly out there around 25,000'. They descended to about 5,000' when they did those circles. Usually they descend without circles. Just looks like they found a spot of higher winds & circled down.

They just hit center ~25.917N 85.900W, not looking all that stacked.. 60.6 knots (~ 69.6 mph) surface
Tropical Storm on the way out. Don't see a dropsonde, no extrapolated surface pressure.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Isaac is a lot like Ike and Irene a big storm with low pressure, but the winds not translating to the surface.


No they do but it just translate slower than smaller storm winds should start to pick up from now on
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I rarely put out a forecast, especially where I don't live, but I believe there is going to be some RI overnight. The last of the dry air is being scoured out and pressure is beginning to steadily fall. The wind field will quickly condense and wind speed will be increasing as well in response to the pressure fall. The movement also worries me. A WNW moving storm is obviously going to spend more time over the Gulf vs. a NW moving storm. Even if it is an extra 6-12 hours longer over water could make a huge difference between a strong CAT 1 and a major hurricane.
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Which would mean this thing is moving due west... 11AM advisory was 26.1N also.. So why are they saying NW?

GOOD QUESTION???
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Wow the republicans delayed the convention till tomorrow but decide to lift the delay about 30 mins ago to start the convention. Real smart move with tornadoes just to the south east.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
by the looks of it this is the start of our (PRE)98L

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TWD
A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
11N20W
. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO 21N17W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 18W-26W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TWO
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH
Yeah that is the next one we have to watch as it could be near the islands in 5 days.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting jeffs713:

Probably was an HH. I'm not sure if they are flying the C-130s or the P-3s out of Ellington, tho. For an HH, it would have straight wings (perpendicular to the body). 2 engines for a P-3, 4 for a C-130.


C-130's are at Ellington Field after moving from Biloxi last night. Most flights will now be out of Houston.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Probably was an HH. I'm not sure if they are flying the C-130s or the P-3s out of Ellington, tho. For an HH, it would have straight wings (perpendicular to the body). 2 engines for a P-3, 4 for a C-130.


had multiple engines on wings
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING
FLC011-099-272030-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FF.W.0006.120827T1740Z-120827T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 137 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING OVER THE EAST COAST
METRO AND COASTAL AREAS STREAMING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS BAND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINFALL RATES RANGING FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES EVERY TWO HOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE AREAS
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY TO THE BROWARD
AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LINE.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39311
Quoting Times2:

Agree something is fishy.It looks due west on SAT and the track confirms it. IDK thats not good.


I noticed that earlier when I saw this loop.. he does look to be going more west.

Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's weird because none of the raw data has high rain rates:


180130 2543N 08539W 8410 01443 //// +164 //// 241058 060 060 007 01
180200 2542N 08538W 8408 01450 //// +181 //// 239060 063 061 007 01
180230 2541N 08537W 8408 01455 //// +183 //// 243054 058 058 006 01
180300 2540N 08535W 8413 01453 //// +185 //// 244051 051 055 006 01
180330 2538N 08534W 8409 01461 //// +189 //// 243053 054 055 005 01
180400 2537N 08532W 8410 01464 //// +197 //// 241052 054 055 005 01
180430 2536N 08531W 8409 01466 //// +187 //// 242048 051 050 003 01


yes it is
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Isaac looking better, feeling that loop eddy, filling in nicely. on the southwest side. With pressures dropping we'll likely see a burst of intensity following. If that vortex can nudge a bit further west we'll start to see the northeast side fill-in and close off, followed shortly by more intensification and an eyewall. The sweet spot is at about 28n,88w, but it's plenty warm outwards of about 150-200 miles. Isaac will likely rev up fairly quickly to fairly strong Cat 1 and then slowly progress to a CAT 2. If there is a westward movement and stall I still think a CAt 3 is totally possible even if it is for a short time.

Looking vertical, symmetrical and getting more intense at the lower levels, may be broadening at the 500mb level which, imo, is a sign of a system trying to strengthen. Isaac has finally found his sea legs, and the show really starts beginning about now.

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winds are starting to pick up by my house right now.......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39311

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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