Little change to Isaac, but storm poses a serious storm surge threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:25 PM GMT on August 27, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac has changed little in strength or organization this morning, as the storm heads northwest at 14 mph towards the Central Gulf Coast. There are two hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm, and Isaac's central pressure held steady at 989 mb at the 8:30 am and 9:15 am center fixes. Top surface winds remain near 65 mph. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac is a very large storm, but isn't very symmetric. Heavy thunderstorm activity is lacking on the southeast side, where 10 knots of wind shear is driving dry air into the circulation. The center is surrounded by a ring of echoes now, which was not the case on Sunday. However, the echoes are weak. The 8:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters reported about half of a ragged eyewall, but the 9:15 am report did not mention any evidence of an eyewall. Isaac will have to form an eyewall in order to intensify significantly.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Isaac. Note the lack of heavy thunderstorm activity on the storm's southeast side, where dry air and wind shear are combining to interfere with development.

Isaac's rains
Isaac's heaviest rains have fallen along a swath from the east coast of Florida near West Palm Beach to the center of the state, just south of Orlando. West Palm Beach received 7.57" of rain from Isaac as of 10 am EDT this morning. A trained spotter in Western Boynton Beach reported 10" of rain from midnight to midnight Sunday. Heavy rains from Isaac are lingering over Cuba but have ended in Haiti and the Dominican Republic; flash floods in Haiti from Isaac's torrential rains killed at least nineteen, and two died in the Dominican Republic.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from Melbourne, Florida radar shows that Isaac has dumped a wide swath of 3+ inches of rain (orange colors) across the state.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs are fairly unified taking Isaac ashore near Southeast Louisiana late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, but continue to show major differences in what happens after that. It is still uncertain if a trough of low pressure passing to the north of Isaac will be able to turn the storm due north, as the ECMWF model is predicting, or bypass the storm, allowing a more west-northwest motion into western Louisiana, like the GFS model is predicting. In either case, Isaac is likely to slow down as it approaches the coast, which will increase the damage potential fro m its wind, storm surge, and rains. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model calls for 10 - 20 inches of rain over much of Louisiana. The ECMWF model predicts that these heavy rains will fall more over Mississippi. It appears likely that Arkansas will see some heavy rains from Isaac late in the week, which would help put a dent in the exceptional drought conditions there.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 8-day period from 2 am Monday August 27 to 2 am Tuesday September 4, from the 2 am EDT August 27 run of the GFS model. This model is predicting a wide swath of 5 - 10 inches of rain (orange colors) will affect portions of Louisiana. Additional very heavy rains are predicted for the Midwest, as moisture from Isaac interacts with a cold front. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac is currently crossing over a relatively cool eddy of water, which will keep intensification slow today. By tonight, the total heat content of the waters increases, which should aid intensification. Low wind shear of 10 knots or less is likely until landfall. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow to the north is not as strong as yesterday, which should also slow intensification today. The models forecast the upper-level outflow should improve by Tuesday. A storm this large will have trouble undergoing rapid intensification, and Isaac's most likely intensity at landfall will be as a Category 1 hurricane, which is what most of the intensity models are forecasting.


Figure 4. Track of Hurricane Gustav of 2008, which followed a path very similar to that of Isaac's predicted path.

Storm surge forecast for Isaac
Storm surge is the primary damage threat from Isaac. Isaac is a huge storm, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out 205 miles from the center. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina at landfall had tropical storm-force winds that extended out 230 miles from its center. Isaac's large size will enable it to set a large area of the ocean into motion, which will generate a large storm surge once the storm approaches land on the Gulf Coast. Water levels at Shell Beach, Louisiana, just east of New Orleans, were already elevated by 1' this morning. Conversely, water levels have fallen by 2' this morning at St. Petersburg, Florida, where strong offshore winds due to Isaac's counter-clockwise circulation have carried water away from the coast. The latest 6:30 am EDT Integrated Kinetic Energy analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Isaac's winds near 0.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, but the destructive potential of Isaacs's storm surge was 2.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. I expect this destructive potential will rise above 3 by time Isaac makes landfall, making Isaac's storm surge similar to that generated by Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008, which followed a path very similar to Isaac's predicted path. Gustav brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane to New Orleans: 9.5' to Lake Borgne on the east side of the city. A higher Category 2-scale surge occurred along the south-central coast of Louisiana, and was 12.5' high in Black Bay, forty miles southeast of New Orleans. Recent model runs indicate Isaac may slow down to a forward speed under 5 mph on Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, close to the coast. If Isaac is just offshore at this time, the coasts of Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle will be exposed to a large storm surge with battering waves for two high tide cycles. This sort of extending pounding will be capable of delivering more damage than the storm surge of Hurricane Gustav of 2008.

The affect of storm size and angle of approach on storm surge
A 2008 paper by Irish et al., The influence of storm size on hurricane surge, found that large storms like Isaac are capable to delivering a 30% larger storm surge to the coast than a smaller storm with the same maximum wind speeds. The angle with which the storm hit the coast is important, too--a storm moving due north or slightly east of north will deliver a storm surge about 10% greater than a storm moving NNW or NW. Consult our Storm Surge pages for detailed information on what the risk is for the coast. I expect that Isaac's storm surge will be about 30% higher than the typical surge one would expect based on the maximum wind speeds.

Isaac's storm surge will provide the first test of the newly-completed New Orleans levee system upgrade. In the wake of the disastrous storm surge flooding from Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Congress appropriated $14.5 billion to upgrade the New Orleans levee system to withstand a Category 3 hurricane storm surge. Katrina was a Category 3 storm at landfall, but the storm passed far enough to the east of the city that its storm surge was characteristic of a Category 1 - 2 storm at the places where the city's flood walls and levees failed. The new flood defenses were only partially completed in time for the arrival of Hurricane Gustav in 2008, which hit Central Louisiana as a Category 2 storm. Gustav brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane to New Orleans: 9.5' to Lake Borgne on the east side of the city. Since that time, the imposing 2-mile long IHNC Flood Barrier has been completed to block off the funnel-shaped pair of canals on the east side of the city. I expect New Orleans' new flood defenses will be able to hold back Isaac's surge, but areas outside the levees are at risk of heavy storm surge damage.


Figure 5. A portion of New Orleans' new $14.5 billion dollar flood defenses, as taken from an Army Corps of Engineers map.

New Orleans flood defense info
Army Corps of Engineers map of the new flood defenses
Army Corps of Engineers video showing the flood defenses
New York Times article, Vast Defenses Now Shielding New Orleans

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located in the Middle Atlantic, about 1050 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, and high wind shear should begin to tear the disturbance apart on Tuesday.

Another tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Sunday is located just south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance is moving west at 10 - 15 mph, and could arrive in the Lesser Antilles around September 2. Several models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression late this week, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning.

Angela Fritz will have a new post here by 6 pm EDT. I'm in Atlanta to help out The Weather Channel with their on-air hurricane coverage, and will doing a few 3-minute tropical updates at 30 minutes past the hour between 2:30 - 7:30 pm EDT today.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Isaac (chelina)
View from the north side of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge.
Tropical Storm Isaac
our street at noon today (seflagamma)
Aug 26, 2012: Isaac floods our street really bad. Now nearly 11
our street at noon today

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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Yep.That freekin' band won't go away...Looks like it might be moving over the ocean after it gets past Boynton.
I am wondering what happens to us..as this storm sort of stalls in the gulf..what happens to us if it pulls another debby?..coming back eastward and crossing florida like debby did..omg..too terrible to think about the added flooding huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880


I believe that the HH have recently found the COC directly under the deep convection and CDO,, near 26N and 86W (not exact I know but close).
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8806
Quoting MelanieP:
Does anyone have a link to the buoys off of the coast of southeast Louisiana. My husband works on a platform near Venice and wants to follow the wave heights. TIA


How about this one? station 42013
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Since Isaac is going to start slowing down, should I be worried about a surprise intensity wise?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Isaac is preparing himself for a round of fairly significant intensification with the structure he has built this afternoon. Don't sleep on the possibility of him becoming high end Cat 2. Still a day and a half over water...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting drwoogie:



Really? 30 mph sustained? Or gust?
Idk probably sustained
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:


This is one reason the models have had a tougher time with this storm, including just initializing it in the first place. Check those big 0hr average error on the early run models...


Last night it wobbled near due north a bit, it is why they take an average..so they can get some sort of true direction it's heading in.

We will see
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
221 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

FLC011-099-272030-
/O.CON.KMFL.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120827T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BROWARD FL-PALM BEACH FL-
221 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR
EASTERN PALM BEACH AND EASTERN BROWARD COUNTIES...

AT 218 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN BROWARD
COUNTY JUST WEST OF PINE ISLAND ROAD WITH 12 TO 13 INCHES OF WATER
FLOWING INTO HOMES. THE LATEST RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM RADAR
INDICATE RAINFALL RATES AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR CONTINUING
OVER THE SAME AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GOLDEN
LAKES...PORT OF PALM BEACH...NORTH COUNTY AIRPORT...NORTH PALM
BEACH...WEST PALM BEACH...WELLINGTON...TEQUESTA...ROYAL PALM BEACH...
RIVIERA BEACH...PALM BEACH GARDENS...PALM BEACH...LION COUNTRY
SAFARI...LAKE WORTH...JUPITER...JUNO BEACH...HAVERHILL AND GREENACRES
CITY


Left work early and what normally tales me 10-15 minutes to get home took me over an hour. Streets are rivers here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
901. PalmBeachWeather
7:07 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting BeanTech:
Wow....this has to be the longest period of sustained, heavy rain that I have ever experienced in my 20+ years of living in Palm Beach county.

Looks like it may finally let up soon, as the radar looks to be clearing out a bit just south of Ft. Lauderdale.

Amazing rainfall amounts today....
Yep.That freekin' band won't go away...Looks like it might be moving over the ocean after it gets past Boynton.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5819
900. Waltanater
7:06 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting JeffM:
Anyone else HATE Local on the 8's? So annoying.
yup!
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
899. iceman100
7:06 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting opal92nwf:
I wonder when we are going to have a real hurricane again. I mean, really? It seems like the past few years it's been just sort of under-par compared with 2004-2005 storms. Heck, in 2005 Wilma seemed like a weaker storm compared to Katrina, Rita, Ivan, etc. because it was "just" a minimal category 3 in South Florida, and now the best 2006-2012 has cranked out are less than well developed category 2's that just never can seem to get there cores together. Gustav was forecast to be a category 3 at landfall, but the center just could never get organized, as it was just a garbled mess throughout the Gulf, and then it weakened to a category 2 at landfall. Then Ike had "high expectations" by everyone to be a doomsday storm with it being huge wiping out Houston/Galveston and it seemed like it had a favorable atmosphere, but the same thing seemed to happen to Ike. As with Gustav, the center seemed like it had marbles mixed in it that prevented it from winding up in the Gulf. It took almost the ENTIRE Gulf of Mexico for the wind to rise just about 30 miles per hour from the time it left Cuba. Now I am not saying this because I am a fear mongering, storm wanting, destruction wanting teen who just wants to get out of school to enjoy seeing destruction and a real disasters on TV, but what I am saying is that THESE STORMS COULD BE MUCH WORSE!!! The era of the 2004-2005 storms seems like a memory from another time, another age, when disasters happened around every corner. And now the fear mongering, storm wanting, destruction wanting people (TWC, News Stations, etc.) are just craving more of that, and the reason they are is because their businesses thrived on those disasters. The point is, the storms we have had in recent years since 2005 are not up to par with what we were experiencing during 2004-2005.

It is true, we are entering a major hurricane drought if none happen for the rest of this year, as it seems Isaac is plagued by the same ailments Gustav and Ike were.

And another thing. All the storms since 2005 have made landfall in the Central Gulf Westward. No more Florida, no more Tampa Bay disaster, no more Miami disaster, no more Pensacola disaster. The Florida hurricane experience since 2005 has become obsolete and seems to be continuing to do so. All the storms do nowadays are go out to sea, and if they just happen to make it into the Gulf of Mexico, they go West, West, West. Resident's of the Eastern Gulf's memories are fading, it will happen, slowly but surely. We cannot forget what major hurricanes do!

It is puzzling of why these weaker storms in recent years don't strengthen as much, and it is unknown of when we will have a "REAL" (Major) hurricane again. But this is a word of warning. The Major Hurricane Drought will not last forever!!!



This is not a drought. Southwest Florida didn't get a hurricane for 44 years between Donna and Charlie. Tampa hasn't had one hit in decades. And before Andrew in 1992, there had been very few major hurricane hits on the state. Heck, Andrew is what started the insurance company pullout of the state even though they had been there forever. This is not a drought, in historical terms. It's just a blip.
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
898. MelanieP
7:06 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Does anyone have a link to the buoys off of the coast of southeast Louisiana. My husband works on a platform near Venice and wants to follow the wave heights. TIA
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
897. LargoFl
7:06 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
896. Mikla
7:06 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting BeanTech:
Wow....this has to be the longest period of sustained, heavy rain that I have ever experienced in my 20+ years of living in Palm Beach county.

Looks like it may finally let up soon, as the radar looks to be clearing out a bit just south of Ft. Lauderdale.

Amazing rainfall amounts today....


Not sure when it will stop... this one rain band extents almost down to Cuba, but it does appear to be moving offshore...
Member Since: October 13, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 286
895. JeffM
7:05 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Anyone else HATE Local on the 8's? So annoying.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
894. weatherganny
7:05 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
I am really glad that SE Texas is not in this...I feel for the people that are...But none of the news channels seem to be worried about Issac in Texas...
Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 220
893. NOLALawyer
7:05 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting opal92nwf:
I wonder when we are going to have a real hurricane again. I mean, really? It seems like the past few years it's been just sort of under-par compared with 2004-2005 storms. Heck, in 2005 Wilma seemed like a weaker storm compared to Katrina, Rita, Ivan, etc. because it was "just" a minimal category 3 in South Florida, and now the best 2006-2012 has cranked out are less than well developed category 2's that just never can seem to get there cores together. Gustav was forecast to be a category 3 at landfall, but the center just could never get organized, as it was just a garbled mess throughout the Gulf, and then it weakened to a category 2 at landfall. Then Ike had "high expectations" by everyone to be a doomsday storm with it being huge wiping out Houston/Galveston and it seemed like it had a favorable atmosphere, but the same thing seemed to happen to Ike. As with Gustav, the center seemed like it had marbles mixed in it that prevented it from winding up in the Gulf. It took almost the ENTIRE Gulf of Mexico for the wind to rise just about 30 miles per hour from the time it left Cuba. Now I am not saying this because I am a fear mongering, storm wanting, destruction wanting teen who just wants to get out of school to enjoy seeing destruction and a real disasters on TV, but what I am saying is that THESE STORMS COULD BE MUCH WORSE!!! The era of the 2004-2005 storms seems like a memory from another time, another age, when disasters happened around every corner. And now the fear mongering, storm wanting, destruction wanting people (TWC, News Stations, etc.) are just craving more of that, and the reason they are is because their businesses thrived on those disasters. The point is, the storms we have had in recent years since 2005 are not up to par with what we were experiencing during 2004-2005.

It is true, we are entering a major hurricane drought if none happen for the rest of this year, as it seems Isaac is plagued by the same ailments Gustav and Ike were.

And another thing. All the storms since 2005 have made landfall in the Central Gulf Westward. No more Florida, no more Tampa Bay disaster, no more Miami disaster, no more Pensacola disaster. The Florida hurricane experience since 2005 has become obsolete and seems to be continuing to do so. All the storms do nowadays are go out to sea, and if they just happen to make it into the Gulf of Mexico, they go West, West, West. Resident's of the Eastern Gulf's memories are fading, it will happen, slowly but surely. We cannot forget what major hurricanes do!

It is puzzling of why these weaker storms in recent years don't strengthen as much, and it is unknown of when we will have a "REAL" (Major) hurricane again. But this is a word of warning. The Major Hurricane Drought will not last forever!!!



Let's see what damage this one causes before we close the book. They don't have to be super-dramatic Cat-5 storms to cause Billions in damage and loss of life.
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 520
892. washingaway
7:04 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Looks like Isaac will stair climb his way NW.
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1144
891. Waltanater
7:04 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/s480x48 0/546686_4210163888710_243860909_n.jpg
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
890. LargoFl
7:03 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC099-271930-
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0139.120827T1856Z-120827T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
256 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 255 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JUPITER...AND MOVING
NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
JUPITER...
TEQUESTA...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
889. truecajun
7:03 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting Caner:


Duration of the expected winds makes it more probable than less.


thanks. so since it's going to be a slow mover, we can expect it. booooo. i guess i need to go to wal-mart.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
888. SewallsPtFL
7:03 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting NSB207:


I agree, this "blob" of moisture looks like it is seperating from Isaac, haven't read anything official though.
Member Since: September 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
887. mitthbevnuruodo
7:03 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting luvtogolf:


If she's driving to the interview, I hope she has her head lights on:)


You know,I seem to see a lot of people complain about female weather forecasters being hired more for their looks than because they're good weather forecasters. But this is why they do. So until people can get over an attractive (or busty) female, that's what they will do. So either enjoy the view and stop complaining or get your fellow men to stop being creeps about it, and maybe they'll not just go for looks when hiring.
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 841
886. Waltanater
7:03 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/s480x48 0/546686_4210163888710_243860909_n.jpg
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
885. GetReal
7:02 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8806
884. LargoFl
7:02 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting Caner:


More in line with history really...

1-2 punch sort of becoming the norm for gulf storms...

Katrina / Rita...

Gustav / Ike...

recent history anyway.
yes i saw that gfs this morning, this is just awful but it is..hurricane season
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
883. Skyepony (Mod)
7:02 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting Times2:


Except tha each .6 wobble represents a different landfall area by a bit. Too many of them represents a pretty big change.


This is one reason the models have had a tougher time with this storm, including just initializing it in the first place. Check those big 0hr average error on the early run models...


Last night it wobbled near due north a bit, it is why they take an average..so they can get some sort of true direction it's heading in.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37342
882. drwoogie
7:02 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting presslord:


Let me guess...Up to New York?



+1 lol thank I needed a laugh after prepping for this tropical storm.
Member Since: August 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
881. leelee75k
7:01 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Can someone tell me if that training feeder band over South East Florida is going to move back west over me (west broward)? The heavier stuff is currently off shore still training north. We are going to have to try to stop these leaks in the roof NOW if all that weather is going to set up back over us.

I wish the weather experts would address this training on the East Coast and how long we could expect this to persist? someone? anyone?
Member Since: September 9, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 558
880. LargoFl
7:01 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting Elena85Vet:
I want to thank those on the Fla peninsula for blogging their experiences and conditions here.

It helps us to understand how far away Issac is affecting conditions, the intensity of them, and the likelyhood that that those conditions will translate from the Fla panhandle @ Big Bend west through Al, MS, and LA

I hope the folks along the northern gulf coast will provide similar info as they become effected tonight and into tomorrow.
yes i too hope those folks up there share with us what they will be going thru when all this gets up there..i can only add..folks up north of us..get ready for some real flooding rains, stay safe and alert up there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
879. Caner
7:01 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting TxIkeJoe:
Now the GFS model has got a storm in the GOM sept 9-11 over New Orleans ....that would be freckish.....


More in line with history really...

1-2 punch sort of becoming the norm for gulf storms...

Katrina / Rita...

Gustav / Ike...

recent history anyway.
Member Since: June 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
877. TexNowNM
7:01 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
..omg just wont stop raining there..this is going to be a disaster if it keeps up much longer..we said it days ago.,.this storm is making weather history


Yes, tropical storm conditions can be very expensive and tragic. Nothing to scoff about or to down-play as "just a tropical storm". Allison caused billions in damage and killed over 40 people and it wasn't even a "decently built" tropical storm. I am sure you all are sick of the rain.
Member Since: October 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
875. watchdog40
7:01 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Our local area (Pensacola) is still saying we are not out the woods yet, they still have evacuations on the coast and everything is closing down, yet on here everyone is thinking we are out of it completely?
Member Since: August 30, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
874. WhoDat42
7:00 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:


CMC hasn't done great with ISAAC with ave error in nm 0hr, 24hr, 48hr & etc..
CMCI 0 72.1 125.8 195.7 297.8 488.4

HWRF is a little better..
HWRF 6.9 75.6 81.7 80.6 110.2 164.9

But those are still average 70 nm error on the 24hr forecast..


hey skye,
you know error margins for Euro?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
873. dmh1026
7:00 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting oceanblues32:

Hmmm well lets see i am just south of ft lauderdale about a mile from the beach and we got slammed..
Thanks...just wondered...not looking good over there at all.
Member Since: August 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
872. nola70119
7:00 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Member Since: June 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1560
871. TxIkeJoe
7:00 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Now the GFS model has got a storm in the GOM sept 9-11 over New Orleans ....that would be freckish.....
Member Since: August 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
870. divdog
7:00 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting kmanislander:


What I am interested in seeing is not so much the next center pass but the third and fourth passes. I think they will show winds over Cat one threshold.
Sure starting to get the look. Very interesting storm. Not letting my guard down yet. Keep the updates coming
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
869. Elena85Vet
6:59 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
I want to thank those on the Fla peninsula for blogging their experiences and conditions here.

It helps us to understand how far away Issac is affecting conditions, the intensity of them, and the likelyhood that that those conditions will translate from the Fla panhandle @ Big Bend west through Al, MS, and LA

I hope the folks along the northern gulf coast will provide similar info as they become effected tonight and into tomorrow.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
868. kmanislander
6:59 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Back in half an hour or thereabouts
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
867. LargoFl
6:59 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
221 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

FLC011-099-272030-
/O.CON.KMFL.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120827T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BROWARD FL-PALM BEACH FL-
221 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR
EASTERN PALM BEACH AND EASTERN BROWARD COUNTIES...

AT 218 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN BROWARD
COUNTY JUST WEST OF PINE ISLAND ROAD WITH 12 TO 13 INCHES OF WATER
FLOWING INTO HOMES. THE LATEST RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM RADAR
INDICATE RAINFALL RATES AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR CONTINUING
OVER THE SAME AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GOLDEN
LAKES...PORT OF PALM BEACH...NORTH COUNTY AIRPORT...NORTH PALM
BEACH...WEST PALM BEACH...WELLINGTON...TEQUESTA...ROYAL PALM BEACH...
RIVIERA BEACH...PALM BEACH GARDENS...PALM BEACH...LION COUNTRY
SAFARI...LAKE WORTH...JUPITER...JUNO BEACH...HAVERHILL AND GREENACRES
CITY
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36880
866. drwoogie
6:58 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting TallyWeather15:
What is the chance that Tallahassee will get 30 mph winds tommorow? School busses can't drive in it



Really? 30 mph sustained? Or gust?
Member Since: August 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
865. tennisgirl08
6:58 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting kmanislander:


The storm is between two highs that can be seen in the image below. The Atlantic high is driving it to the NW generally and the high to West is in a blocking position which should prevent any real motion to the WNW. IMO a set up like this should result in a NW track continuing .



The plains high seems to be the weaker of the 2, right? Could this be what the GFS and GFDL tracks are showing?
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1242
864. truecajun
6:58 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting Dsntslp:
Good idea, thanks for that. The parking lot at Northport School here has water at waist level. Kids are being taken out to parents by golf cart using another route.

I do not know if there is any flooding in the school itself yet.


yikes! be safe.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
863. PalmBeachWeatherBoy
6:58 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
I've just reached 20 inches of rain here in Greenacres (W Palm Beach). I'm impressed by the drainage system but I'm sure at this point it's near a breaking point.
Member Since: August 30, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 470
862. RitaEvac
6:58 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
So basically where you see the ocean blue below, with low level clouds, you have tropical storm conditions going on with the sun out....


Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
861. help4u
6:58 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Have not seen this on weatherbell.Iam a subscriber.
Member Since: September 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1276
860. Caner
6:58 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting truecajun:
so can baton rouge expect power outages? just trying to figure out what to expect over here. not as bad as Gustav, but for sure no electricity for a day or so??


Duration of the expected winds makes it more probable than less.
Member Since: June 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
859. opal92nwf
6:57 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
I wonder when we are going to have a real hurricane again. I mean, really? It seems like the past few years it's been just sort of under-par compared with 2004-2005 storms. Heck, in 2005 Wilma seemed like a weaker storm compared to Katrina, Rita, Ivan, etc. because it was "just" a minimal category 3 in South Florida, and now the best 2006-2012 has cranked out are less than well developed category 2's that just never can seem to get there cores together. Gustav was forecast to be a category 3 at landfall, but the center just could never get organized, as it was just a garbled mess throughout the Gulf, and then it weakened to a category 2 at landfall. Then Ike had "high expectations" by everyone to be a doomsday storm with it being huge wiping out Houston/Galveston and it seemed like it had a favorable atmosphere, but the same thing seemed to happen to Ike. As with Gustav, the center seemed like it had marbles mixed in it that prevented it from winding up in the Gulf. It took almost the ENTIRE Gulf of Mexico for the wind to rise just about 30 miles per hour from the time it left Cuba. Now I am not saying this because I am a fear mongering, storm wanting, destruction wanting teen who just wants to get out of school to enjoy seeing destruction and a real disasters on TV, but what I am saying is that THESE STORMS COULD BE MUCH WORSE!!! The era of the 2004-2005 storms seems like a memory from another time, another age, when disasters happened around every corner. And now the fear mongering, storm wanting, destruction wanting people (TWC, News Stations, etc.) are just craving more of that, and the reason they are is because their businesses thrived on those disasters. The point is, the storms we have had in recent years since 2005 are not up to par with what we were experiencing during 2004-2005.

It is true, we are entering a major hurricane drought if none happen for the rest of this year, as it seems Isaac is plagued by the same ailments Gustav and Ike were.

And another thing. All the storms since 2005 have made landfall in the Central Gulf Westward. No more Florida, no more Tampa Bay disaster, no more Miami disaster, no more Pensacola disaster. The Florida hurricane experience since 2005 has become obsolete and seems to be continuing to do so. All the storms do nowadays are go out to sea, and if they just happen to make it into the Gulf of Mexico, they go West, West, West. Resident's of the Eastern Gulf's memories are fading, it will happen, slowly but surely. We cannot forget what major hurricanes do!

It is puzzling of why these weaker storms in recent years don't strengthen as much, and it is unknown of when we will have a "REAL" (Major) hurricane again. But this is a word of warning. The Major Hurricane Drought will not last forever!!!

Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2315

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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