Little change to Isaac, but storm poses a serious storm surge threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:25 PM GMT on August 27, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac has changed little in strength or organization this morning, as the storm heads northwest at 14 mph towards the Central Gulf Coast. There are two hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm, and Isaac's central pressure held steady at 989 mb at the 8:30 am and 9:15 am center fixes. Top surface winds remain near 65 mph. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac is a very large storm, but isn't very symmetric. Heavy thunderstorm activity is lacking on the southeast side, where 10 knots of wind shear is driving dry air into the circulation. The center is surrounded by a ring of echoes now, which was not the case on Sunday. However, the echoes are weak. The 8:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters reported about half of a ragged eyewall, but the 9:15 am report did not mention any evidence of an eyewall. Isaac will have to form an eyewall in order to intensify significantly.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Isaac. Note the lack of heavy thunderstorm activity on the storm's southeast side, where dry air and wind shear are combining to interfere with development.

Isaac's rains
Isaac's heaviest rains have fallen along a swath from the east coast of Florida near West Palm Beach to the center of the state, just south of Orlando. West Palm Beach received 7.57" of rain from Isaac as of 10 am EDT this morning. A trained spotter in Western Boynton Beach reported 10" of rain from midnight to midnight Sunday. Heavy rains from Isaac are lingering over Cuba but have ended in Haiti and the Dominican Republic; flash floods in Haiti from Isaac's torrential rains killed at least nineteen, and two died in the Dominican Republic.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from Melbourne, Florida radar shows that Isaac has dumped a wide swath of 3+ inches of rain (orange colors) across the state.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs are fairly unified taking Isaac ashore near Southeast Louisiana late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, but continue to show major differences in what happens after that. It is still uncertain if a trough of low pressure passing to the north of Isaac will be able to turn the storm due north, as the ECMWF model is predicting, or bypass the storm, allowing a more west-northwest motion into western Louisiana, like the GFS model is predicting. In either case, Isaac is likely to slow down as it approaches the coast, which will increase the damage potential fro m its wind, storm surge, and rains. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model calls for 10 - 20 inches of rain over much of Louisiana. The ECMWF model predicts that these heavy rains will fall more over Mississippi. It appears likely that Arkansas will see some heavy rains from Isaac late in the week, which would help put a dent in the exceptional drought conditions there.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 8-day period from 2 am Monday August 27 to 2 am Tuesday September 4, from the 2 am EDT August 27 run of the GFS model. This model is predicting a wide swath of 5 - 10 inches of rain (orange colors) will affect portions of Louisiana. Additional very heavy rains are predicted for the Midwest, as moisture from Isaac interacts with a cold front. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac is currently crossing over a relatively cool eddy of water, which will keep intensification slow today. By tonight, the total heat content of the waters increases, which should aid intensification. Low wind shear of 10 knots or less is likely until landfall. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow to the north is not as strong as yesterday, which should also slow intensification today. The models forecast the upper-level outflow should improve by Tuesday. A storm this large will have trouble undergoing rapid intensification, and Isaac's most likely intensity at landfall will be as a Category 1 hurricane, which is what most of the intensity models are forecasting.


Figure 4. Track of Hurricane Gustav of 2008, which followed a path very similar to that of Isaac's predicted path.

Storm surge forecast for Isaac
Storm surge is the primary damage threat from Isaac. Isaac is a huge storm, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out 205 miles from the center. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina at landfall had tropical storm-force winds that extended out 230 miles from its center. Isaac's large size will enable it to set a large area of the ocean into motion, which will generate a large storm surge once the storm approaches land on the Gulf Coast. Water levels at Shell Beach, Louisiana, just east of New Orleans, were already elevated by 1' this morning. Conversely, water levels have fallen by 2' this morning at St. Petersburg, Florida, where strong offshore winds due to Isaac's counter-clockwise circulation have carried water away from the coast. The latest 6:30 am EDT Integrated Kinetic Energy analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Isaac's winds near 0.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, but the destructive potential of Isaacs's storm surge was 2.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. I expect this destructive potential will rise above 3 by time Isaac makes landfall, making Isaac's storm surge similar to that generated by Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008, which followed a path very similar to Isaac's predicted path. Gustav brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane to New Orleans: 9.5' to Lake Borgne on the east side of the city. A higher Category 2-scale surge occurred along the south-central coast of Louisiana, and was 12.5' high in Black Bay, forty miles southeast of New Orleans. Recent model runs indicate Isaac may slow down to a forward speed under 5 mph on Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, close to the coast. If Isaac is just offshore at this time, the coasts of Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle will be exposed to a large storm surge with battering waves for two high tide cycles. This sort of extending pounding will be capable of delivering more damage than the storm surge of Hurricane Gustav of 2008.

The affect of storm size and angle of approach on storm surge
A 2008 paper by Irish et al., The influence of storm size on hurricane surge, found that large storms like Isaac are capable to delivering a 30% larger storm surge to the coast than a smaller storm with the same maximum wind speeds. The angle with which the storm hit the coast is important, too--a storm moving due north or slightly east of north will deliver a storm surge about 10% greater than a storm moving NNW or NW. Consult our Storm Surge pages for detailed information on what the risk is for the coast. I expect that Isaac's storm surge will be about 30% higher than the typical surge one would expect based on the maximum wind speeds.

Isaac's storm surge will provide the first test of the newly-completed New Orleans levee system upgrade. In the wake of the disastrous storm surge flooding from Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Congress appropriated $14.5 billion to upgrade the New Orleans levee system to withstand a Category 3 hurricane storm surge. Katrina was a Category 3 storm at landfall, but the storm passed far enough to the east of the city that its storm surge was characteristic of a Category 1 - 2 storm at the places where the city's flood walls and levees failed. The new flood defenses were only partially completed in time for the arrival of Hurricane Gustav in 2008, which hit Central Louisiana as a Category 2 storm. Gustav brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane to New Orleans: 9.5' to Lake Borgne on the east side of the city. Since that time, the imposing 2-mile long IHNC Flood Barrier has been completed to block off the funnel-shaped pair of canals on the east side of the city. I expect New Orleans' new flood defenses will be able to hold back Isaac's surge, but areas outside the levees are at risk of heavy storm surge damage.


Figure 5. A portion of New Orleans' new $14.5 billion dollar flood defenses, as taken from an Army Corps of Engineers map.

New Orleans flood defense info
Army Corps of Engineers map of the new flood defenses
Army Corps of Engineers video showing the flood defenses
New York Times article, Vast Defenses Now Shielding New Orleans

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located in the Middle Atlantic, about 1050 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, and high wind shear should begin to tear the disturbance apart on Tuesday.

Another tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Sunday is located just south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance is moving west at 10 - 15 mph, and could arrive in the Lesser Antilles around September 2. Several models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression late this week, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning.

Angela Fritz will have a new post here by 6 pm EDT. I'm in Atlanta to help out The Weather Channel with their on-air hurricane coverage, and will doing a few 3-minute tropical updates at 30 minutes past the hour between 2:30 - 7:30 pm EDT today.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Isaac (chelina)
View from the north side of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge.
Tropical Storm Isaac
our street at noon today (seflagamma)
Aug 26, 2012: Isaac floods our street really bad. Now nearly 11
our street at noon today

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It looks like shear and dry air has taken a toll on Isaac, so it will never be able to reach anything more than a strong Cat 1 to weak Cat 2, but I have noticed it is still steadily getting its act together.

I would not be surprised if there were a few minor outbursts of intensification before this storm made landfall. The problems with Isaac in terms of it not strengthening much is just due to the fact that the conditions are not ideal, its so large, and it has gone through quite a troubled history.

I do expect that when/if it gets its act together it could be one potent force to contend with. Other then that I just expect steady strengthening as it nears the Louisiana coast.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm going to learn how to be as wordy as you are one day, Nea.


Yeah, I'd just tell em' to can it...
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Structure is good, pressure is low, winds not there yet though.



I'm expecting a peak of around 80mph, with the possibility of a stronger storm if it undergoes some last minute RI.
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Just found out the Lake Okeechobee has received about 10 inches of rain and some more to come. Schools in Okeechobee County will be closed tomorrow as well due to heavy flooding in the areas.
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Do not focus on the track if you are east of New Orleans

focus on where the heaviest rain has been in Fla....well

away from the "Center" of the storm...If one of those rainbands passes over your location you may see huge
amounts of rain...
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Quoting nola70119:


You are going to flood up there big time, power lines down......thats an evac if you ask me.


I am... sort of.. Going to Northern Covington with family. Mega generator, well water, high ground and that is where I will stay until it is over. Same place I stayed for Katrina and Gustav. I'm about 2 miles from the lake so we have never flooded but you never know.
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Based on what recon found (several 70 mph readings) I believe this should be upped to 70 mph at 5pm.

Time: 17:59:00Z
Coordinates: 25.8167N 85.7833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 841.2 mb (~ 24.84 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,415 meters (~ 4,642 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 253° at 46 knots (From the WSW at ~ 52.9 mph)
Air Temp: 16.3°C* (~ 61.3°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 48 knots (~ 55.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 17 mm/hr (~ 0.67 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

The rain rate is pretty high and flight level winds are lower.
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Recon turning southwestward towards the circulation; entry through the northeastern semicircle. Flight-level winds steadily increasing: currently around 49kts.

191430 2700N 08532W 8412 01478 //// +193 //// 121048 049 036 001 01
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
950. 7544
Quoting GetReal:


hmmmm looks how that moving north
tail is spreading out strange it covers all of fla now interesting
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5 year old grandson says yes he did see one classroom with water in it at Northport. Daughter reports that some of the roads here are waist deep in water and mailboxes are floating down the road where people have hit them. Many cars stranded and in ditches. Out of four possibles roads in to the school only one is still accessible and it is almost waist deep. Power to the school and multiple surrounding blocks is out.

These would seem to be the reasons for the school calling for parents to pick their children up early.

I am trying to remember if that school is usually used as a Red Cross Shelter. If so, they should rethink that, IMO.
Member Since: August 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 70
Quoting GetReal:
on that radar..LOOK at the blob over east florida..looks like its expanding and growing huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
947. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting WhoDat42:


hey skye,
you know error margins for Euro?


No they only include NHC's "aid public" directory models which is about every one but the Euro..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm not the blog police, and far be it from me to stomp on anyone's fun, but I personally find the repeated jokes about Stephanie Abrams' body to be tasteless and disrespectful. I understand that some may not like her, and that's their choice. I also understand that some may find her attractive. That, too, is their choice. But the woman is a professional, not some bimbo posing for the cover of Maxim; she's got degrees in meteorology and geography (along with a minor in mathematics, fer cryin' out loud). As often as met students in this forum talk about how difficult those courses are, I'd think Ms Abrams would deserve at least here to be talked about for what she's accomplished more than the physical attributes gifted to her by her DNA. Not to mention: there aren't just hormonal males frequenting this forum. So can you guys maybe save the female body worship for WU mails or your own blogs? Please?

I'm going to learn how to be as wordy as you are one day, Nea.
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the former dry slot over the Eastern Gulf between the center and Flordia seems to be filling in based of satilite.
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Based on what recon found (several 70 mph readings) I believe this should be upped to 70 mph at 5pm.

Time: 17:59:00Z
Coordinates: 25.8167N 85.7833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 841.2 mb (~ 24.84 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,415 meters (~ 4,642 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 253° at 46 knots (From the WSW at ~ 52.9 mph)
Air Temp: 16.3°C* (~ 61.3°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 48 knots (~ 55.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 17 mm/hr (~ 0.67 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Bryan Norcross expects that feeder band to move back west as the storm moves west. The band will come back over West Broward but not stay long. Should move and by tomorrow be roughly over the west coast of Florida.
oh boy i was wondering when this would get over here to us..thanks for that info
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm not the blog police, and far be it from me to stomp on anyone's fun, but I personally find the repeated jokes about Stephanie Abrams' body to be tasteless and disrespectful. I understand that some may not like her, and that's their choice. I also understand that some may find her attractive. That, too, is their choice. But the woman is a professional, not some bimbo posing for the cover of Maxim; she's got degrees in meteorology and geography (along with a minor in mathematics, fer cryin' out loud). As often as met students in this forum talk about how difficult those courses are, I'd think Ms Abrams would deserve at least here to be talked about for what she's accomplished more than the physical attributes gifted to her by her DNA. Not to mention: there aren't just hormonal males frequenting this forum. So can you guys maybe save the female body worship for WU mails or your own blogs? Please?


I am so glad someone said it. Not only that, but it is disrespectful to women in general as well as those on this blog. Save those type comments for your wives and daughters.
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#859........ wow.... irene, Ike, Gustav, Dean, Felix, Igor..... these r plenty strong hurricanes... U dont need a Cat 5 to do damage!!!! Irene did plenty and so did ike!!
so to say were not up to par... is absolutely wrong and untruthful, 2005 and 2204 were not at par they were above par....
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Quoting leelee75k:
Can someone tell me if that training feeder band over South East Florida is going to move back west over me (west broward)? The heavier stuff is currently off shore still training north. We are going to have to try to stop these leaks in the roof NOW if all that weather is going to set up back over us.

I wish the weather experts would address this training on the East Coast and how long we could expect this to persist? someone? anyone?
Bryan Norcross expects that feeder band to move back west as the storm moves west. The band will come back over West Broward but not stay long. Should move and by tomorrow be roughly over the west coast of Florida.
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Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8874
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Yep.That freekin' band won't go away...Looks like it might be moving over the ocean after it gets past Boynton.

Try driving on 95. Holy Cow
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Isaac's pressure is very low for a mid grade tropical storm. Winds have to catch up eventually.
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D-Min sure doesn't seem to effect him anymore.
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Quoting SELouisianaGirl:
Been lurking all week. Not loving the 2pm models. Keep the storm over us for such a LONG period of time just makes it that much worse. I'm a few minutes North of Lake Pontchatrain.

Most of them fan out over the entire state..which will affect not only us but MS, AL and perhaps even more of FL even more than they have already has to handle. For those who really can read the charts and all the data. What are your thoughts on the tracks/models?



You are going to flood up there big time, power lines down......thats an evac if you ask me.
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TROPICAL STORM ISAAC LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

...TROPICAL STORM ISAAC HEADING TOWARDS CENTRAL GULF COAST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
STORM MOTION HAS SHIFTED VERY SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND GULF COASTAL WATERS DESTIN TO
PASCAGOULA OUT 60 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...UPPER
MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...LOWER BALDWIN...INLAND
ESCAMBIA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...COASTAL SANTA
ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...STONE AND GEORGE.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL OF
GULF COASTAL WATERS DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60 NM.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...WASHINGTON...WAYNE...PERRY AND GREENE.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.1N...LONGITUDE 85.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 360 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE AL...OR ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF PENSACOLA FL. STORM MOTION WAS NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. WHILE THE EXACT
TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN...ISAAC WILL LIKELY IMPACT COASTAL PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
BEGIN TO IMPACT THESE LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY THEN
DETERIORATE FURTHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA...ESPECIALLY
IF THE TRACK SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE EAST. THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS WILL BE HIGHER ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR THE OUTER RAIN BANDS. RAINFALL...POSSIBLY HEAVY
AT TIMES...WILL ONSET TONIGHT AND ENDURE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH STORM
TOTALS OF BETWEEN 8-12 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH LOCAL AREAS RECEIVING
AS MUCH AS 15 INCHES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE AROUND 200 PM CDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Quoting JeffM:
Anyone else HATE Local on the 8's? So annoying.


commercials are longer than the actual weather stuff..yes that is annoying...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting opal92nwf:
I wonder when we are going to have a real hurricane again. I mean, really? It seems like the past few years it's been just sort of under-par compared with 2004-2005 storms. Heck, in 2005 Wilma seemed like a weaker storm compared to Katrina, Rita, Ivan, etc. because it was "just" a minimal category 3 in South Florida, and now the best 2006-2012 has cranked out are less than well developed category 2's that just never can seem to get there cores together. Gustav was forecast to be a category 3 at landfall, but the center just could never get organized, as it was just a garbled mess throughout the Gulf, and then it weakened to a category 2 at landfall. Then Ike had "high expectations" by everyone to be a doomsday storm with it being huge wiping out Houston/Galveston and it seemed like it had a favorable atmosphere, but the same thing seemed to happen to Ike. As with Gustav, the center seemed like it had marbles mixed in it that prevented it from winding up in the Gulf. It took almost the ENTIRE Gulf of Mexico for the wind to rise just about 30 miles per hour from the time it left Cuba. Now I am not saying this because I am a fear mongering, storm wanting, destruction wanting teen who just wants to get out of school to enjoy seeing destruction and a real disasters on TV, but what I am saying is that THESE STORMS COULD BE MUCH WORSE!!! The era of the 2004-2005 storms seems like a memory from another time, another age, when disasters happened around every corner. And now the fear mongering, storm wanting, destruction wanting people (TWC, News Stations, etc.) are just craving more of that, and the reason they are is because their businesses thrived on those disasters. The point is, the storms we have had in recent years since 2005 are not up to par with what we were experiencing during 2004-2005.

It is true, we are entering a major hurricane drought if none happen for the rest of this year, as it seems Isaac is plagued by the same ailments Gustav and Ike were.

And another thing. All the storms since 2005 have made landfall in the Central Gulf Westward. No more Florida, no more Tampa Bay disaster, no more Miami disaster, no more Pensacola disaster. The Florida hurricane experience since 2005 has become obsolete and seems to be continuing to do so. All the storms do nowadays are go out to sea, and if they just happen to make it into the Gulf of Mexico, they go West, West, West. Resident's of the Eastern Gulf's memories are fading, it will happen, slowly but surely. We cannot forget what major hurricanes do!

It is puzzling of why these weaker storms in recent years don't strengthen as much, and it is unknown of when we will have a "REAL" (Major) hurricane again. But this is a word of warning. The Major Hurricane Drought will not last forever!!!

You have to factor in climate change and 10 year return periods into this. From '95-'05 the tropics featured a lot of major hurricanes that made landfall in the US, starting with Opal in '95, Fran in '96, Floyd in '99, Lili in '02, Isabel in '03, and '04-'05 had multiple major hurricane strikes which were anomalies.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



Link


Thank you
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Quoting RitaEvac:


WTH yall do during strong cold fronts?

I suspect he/she is. Only a helicopter parent or student. Schools I n Leon County have been open before in similar conditions.
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I'm not the blog police, and far be it from me to stomp on anyone's fun, but I personally find the repeated jokes about Stephanie Abrams' body to be tasteless and disrespectful. I understand that some may not like her, and that's their choice. I also understand that some may find her attractive. That, too, is their choice. But the woman is a professional, not some bimbo posing for the cover of Maxim; she's got degrees in meteorology and geography (along with a minor in mathematics, fer cryin' out loud). As often as met students in this forum talk about how difficult those courses are, I'd think Ms Abrams would deserve at least here to be talked about for what she's accomplished more than the physical attributes gifted to her by her DNA. Not to mention: there aren't just hormonal males frequenting this forum. So can you guys maybe save the female body worship for WU mails or your own blogs? Please?
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Quoting leelee75k:
Can someone tell me if that training feeder band over South East Florida is going to move back west over me (west broward)? The heavier stuff is currently off shore still training north. We are going to have to try to stop these leaks in the roof NOW if all that weather is going to set up back over us.

I wish the weather experts would address this training on the East Coast and how long we could expect this to persist? someone? anyone?


The one over E FL should lift out to the E. New ones will try to develop over the W coast and move NE but as Isaac pulls away so their support and shall be no longer.
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Quoting NOLALawyer:


Let's see what damage this one causes before we close the book. They don't have to be super-dramatic Cat-5 storms to cause Billions in damage and loss of life.

Yes, you're right, even Ike caused a colossal storm surge.
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Just thinking... they just opened the Republican convention in Tampa. Is political hot wind moist or dry? Could lead to Isaas's rapid intensification if it's moist.
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Link to Buoy Data in Gulf


Link
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Been lurking all week. Not loving the 2pm models. Keep the storm over us for such a LONG period of time just makes it that much worse. I'm a few minutes North of Lake Pontchatrain.

Most of them fan out over the entire state..which will affect not only us but MS, AL and perhaps even more of FL even more than they have already had to handle. For those who really can read the charts and all the data. What are your thoughts on the tracks/models?

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I posted this last night, but for those who weren't here, this is what it was like in South Florida:

a href="" target="_blank">Link
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I'd rather have it saying it will hit LA now, chances are it will move.  Better to be the target two weeks out, then 1 day out.  Oh wait we are the target 1 day out .
Quoting TxIkeJoe:
Now the GFS model has got a storm in the GOM sept 9-11 over New Orleans ....that would be freckish.....

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Quoting iceman100:


This is not a drought. Southwest Florida didn't get a hurricane for 44 years between Donna and Charlie. Tampa hasn't had one hit in decades. And before Andrew in 1992, there had been very few major hurricane hits on the state. Heck, Andrew is what started the insurance company pullout of the state even though they had been there forever. This is not a drought, in historical terms. It's just a blip.

I should have phrased that differently, you're right. Just compared to what we have been seeing in the recent past, it "seems" like a "slight drought" of major hurricanes.
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920. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting leelee75k:
Can someone tell me if that training feeder band over South East Florida is going to move back west over me (west broward)? The heavier stuff is currently off shore still training north. We are going to have to try to stop these leaks in the roof NOW if all that weather is going to set up back over us.

I wish the weather experts would address this training on the East Coast and how long we could expect this to persist? someone? anyone?


It's hard to say. Slight shift to the east but it could come back on you like it is me now~ north of you.. Take what ever break you get to stop leaks. The train looks almost endless from the south & the flooding will attract & feed it.. So if you get a break use it.



That roof sealer in a can that works wet or dry is great. Too many people fall off roofs in these conditions. Y'all be careful..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Bastadi about global warming...Aug 8 Fox news...

"In the next 20-30 global temps should return to those in the 70s, a natural warming/cooling cycle"

mmmm..I doubt it...

watch it here...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
859. You're joking right?

2006: Nada
2007: Dean and Felix BOTH made landfall as Category 5 storms, something that NEVER happened in 2005.
2008: The US experienced 6 back-to-back US landfalls, Hurricane Dolly, TS Edouard, TS Fay, Hurricane Gustav, Hurricane Hanna, Hurricane Ike. 2008 also was destructive with $47.534 billion in damages. Ike was the 2nd most destructive hurricane ever.
2009: Nada.
2010: Alex, Karl, Igor, Tomas all brought significant damage to the islands, central America and Mexico.
2011: Irene caused 19 billion dollars in damages, 15 billion dollars in the US.

To say that we're not having bad storms since 2005 is ridiculous. If you put your expectations every year to 2004 and 2005 you're going to be disappointed, those where off years. Something we might never see again. 2006-2012 has been very destructive and very active.
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I'm near the purple shaded area.
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


You know,I seem to see a lot of people complain about female weather forecasters being hired more for their looks than because they're good weather forecasters. But this is why they do. So until people can get over an attractive (or busty) female, that's what they will do. So either enjoy the view and stop complaining or get your fellow men to stop being creeps about it, and maybe they'll not just go for looks when hiring.


It will never happen in my lifetime then that's for sure! But seriously boys you've had your fun and since this is a public blog maybe it would be nice of you to give the lady a break.
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Quoting MelanieP:
Does anyone have a link to the buoys off of the coast of southeast Louisiana. My husband works on a platform near Venice and wants to follow the wave heights. TIA



Here ya go...

Link
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Quoting MelanieP:
Does anyone have a link to the buoys off of the coast of southeast Louisiana. My husband works on a platform near Venice and wants to follow the wave heights. TIA



Link
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Isaac is preparing himself for a round of fairly significant intensification with the structure he has built this afternoon. Don't sleep on the possibility of him becoming high end Cat 2. Still a day and a half over water...



Very true.
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Most models are predicting a stall, or at least a slowed forward speed. This usually accompanies a change of direction, and in the GOM, this usually means a right turn. Just because it looks like it is going past NOLA to the west doesn't mean it is. It's still hundreds of miles east of NOLA. And the COC is not the center of the blob. If it was, we'd have a stronger storm.
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Quoting JeffM:
Anyone else HATE Local on the 8's? So annoying.


+1000000
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Yep.That freekin' band won't go away...Looks like it might be moving over the ocean after it gets past Boynton.
I am wondering what happens to us..as this storm sort of stalls in the gulf..what happens to us if it pulls another debby?..coming back eastward and crossing florida like debby did..omg..too terrible to think about the added flooding huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.