Little change to Isaac, but storm poses a serious storm surge threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:25 PM GMT on August 27, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac has changed little in strength or organization this morning, as the storm heads northwest at 14 mph towards the Central Gulf Coast. There are two hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm, and Isaac's central pressure held steady at 989 mb at the 8:30 am and 9:15 am center fixes. Top surface winds remain near 65 mph. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac is a very large storm, but isn't very symmetric. Heavy thunderstorm activity is lacking on the southeast side, where 10 knots of wind shear is driving dry air into the circulation. The center is surrounded by a ring of echoes now, which was not the case on Sunday. However, the echoes are weak. The 8:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters reported about half of a ragged eyewall, but the 9:15 am report did not mention any evidence of an eyewall. Isaac will have to form an eyewall in order to intensify significantly.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Isaac. Note the lack of heavy thunderstorm activity on the storm's southeast side, where dry air and wind shear are combining to interfere with development.

Isaac's rains
Isaac's heaviest rains have fallen along a swath from the east coast of Florida near West Palm Beach to the center of the state, just south of Orlando. West Palm Beach received 7.57" of rain from Isaac as of 10 am EDT this morning. A trained spotter in Western Boynton Beach reported 10" of rain from midnight to midnight Sunday. Heavy rains from Isaac are lingering over Cuba but have ended in Haiti and the Dominican Republic; flash floods in Haiti from Isaac's torrential rains killed at least nineteen, and two died in the Dominican Republic.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from Melbourne, Florida radar shows that Isaac has dumped a wide swath of 3+ inches of rain (orange colors) across the state.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs are fairly unified taking Isaac ashore near Southeast Louisiana late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, but continue to show major differences in what happens after that. It is still uncertain if a trough of low pressure passing to the north of Isaac will be able to turn the storm due north, as the ECMWF model is predicting, or bypass the storm, allowing a more west-northwest motion into western Louisiana, like the GFS model is predicting. In either case, Isaac is likely to slow down as it approaches the coast, which will increase the damage potential fro m its wind, storm surge, and rains. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model calls for 10 - 20 inches of rain over much of Louisiana. The ECMWF model predicts that these heavy rains will fall more over Mississippi. It appears likely that Arkansas will see some heavy rains from Isaac late in the week, which would help put a dent in the exceptional drought conditions there.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 8-day period from 2 am Monday August 27 to 2 am Tuesday September 4, from the 2 am EDT August 27 run of the GFS model. This model is predicting a wide swath of 5 - 10 inches of rain (orange colors) will affect portions of Louisiana. Additional very heavy rains are predicted for the Midwest, as moisture from Isaac interacts with a cold front. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac is currently crossing over a relatively cool eddy of water, which will keep intensification slow today. By tonight, the total heat content of the waters increases, which should aid intensification. Low wind shear of 10 knots or less is likely until landfall. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow to the north is not as strong as yesterday, which should also slow intensification today. The models forecast the upper-level outflow should improve by Tuesday. A storm this large will have trouble undergoing rapid intensification, and Isaac's most likely intensity at landfall will be as a Category 1 hurricane, which is what most of the intensity models are forecasting.


Figure 4. Track of Hurricane Gustav of 2008, which followed a path very similar to that of Isaac's predicted path.

Storm surge forecast for Isaac
Storm surge is the primary damage threat from Isaac. Isaac is a huge storm, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out 205 miles from the center. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina at landfall had tropical storm-force winds that extended out 230 miles from its center. Isaac's large size will enable it to set a large area of the ocean into motion, which will generate a large storm surge once the storm approaches land on the Gulf Coast. Water levels at Shell Beach, Louisiana, just east of New Orleans, were already elevated by 1' this morning. Conversely, water levels have fallen by 2' this morning at St. Petersburg, Florida, where strong offshore winds due to Isaac's counter-clockwise circulation have carried water away from the coast. The latest 6:30 am EDT Integrated Kinetic Energy analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Isaac's winds near 0.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, but the destructive potential of Isaacs's storm surge was 2.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. I expect this destructive potential will rise above 3 by time Isaac makes landfall, making Isaac's storm surge similar to that generated by Category 2 Hurricane Gustav of 2008, which followed a path very similar to Isaac's predicted path. Gustav brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane to New Orleans: 9.5' to Lake Borgne on the east side of the city. A higher Category 2-scale surge occurred along the south-central coast of Louisiana, and was 12.5' high in Black Bay, forty miles southeast of New Orleans. Recent model runs indicate Isaac may slow down to a forward speed under 5 mph on Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, close to the coast. If Isaac is just offshore at this time, the coasts of Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle will be exposed to a large storm surge with battering waves for two high tide cycles. This sort of extending pounding will be capable of delivering more damage than the storm surge of Hurricane Gustav of 2008.

The affect of storm size and angle of approach on storm surge
A 2008 paper by Irish et al., The influence of storm size on hurricane surge, found that large storms like Isaac are capable to delivering a 30% larger storm surge to the coast than a smaller storm with the same maximum wind speeds. The angle with which the storm hit the coast is important, too--a storm moving due north or slightly east of north will deliver a storm surge about 10% greater than a storm moving NNW or NW. Consult our Storm Surge pages for detailed information on what the risk is for the coast. I expect that Isaac's storm surge will be about 30% higher than the typical surge one would expect based on the maximum wind speeds.

Isaac's storm surge will provide the first test of the newly-completed New Orleans levee system upgrade. In the wake of the disastrous storm surge flooding from Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Congress appropriated $14.5 billion to upgrade the New Orleans levee system to withstand a Category 3 hurricane storm surge. Katrina was a Category 3 storm at landfall, but the storm passed far enough to the east of the city that its storm surge was characteristic of a Category 1 - 2 storm at the places where the city's flood walls and levees failed. The new flood defenses were only partially completed in time for the arrival of Hurricane Gustav in 2008, which hit Central Louisiana as a Category 2 storm. Gustav brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane to New Orleans: 9.5' to Lake Borgne on the east side of the city. Since that time, the imposing 2-mile long IHNC Flood Barrier has been completed to block off the funnel-shaped pair of canals on the east side of the city. I expect New Orleans' new flood defenses will be able to hold back Isaac's surge, but areas outside the levees are at risk of heavy storm surge damage.


Figure 5. A portion of New Orleans' new $14.5 billion dollar flood defenses, as taken from an Army Corps of Engineers map.

New Orleans flood defense info
Army Corps of Engineers map of the new flood defenses
Army Corps of Engineers video showing the flood defenses
New York Times article, Vast Defenses Now Shielding New Orleans

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located in the Middle Atlantic, about 1050 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, and high wind shear should begin to tear the disturbance apart on Tuesday.

Another tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Sunday is located just south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance is moving west at 10 - 15 mph, and could arrive in the Lesser Antilles around September 2. Several models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression late this week, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning.

Angela Fritz will have a new post here by 6 pm EDT. I'm in Atlanta to help out The Weather Channel with their on-air hurricane coverage, and will doing a few 3-minute tropical updates at 30 minutes past the hour between 2:30 - 7:30 pm EDT today.

Jeff Masters

Tropical Storm Isaac (chelina)
View from the north side of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge.
Tropical Storm Isaac
our street at noon today (seflagamma)
Aug 26, 2012: Isaac floods our street really bad. Now nearly 11
our street at noon today

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Its very borderline whether Isaac is a hurricane. Winds are probably right on the border. But the NHC should definitely call it one... Hopefully people will take it a little more seriously if it is declared a hurricane.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm not the blog police, and far be it from me to stomp on anyone's fun, but I personally find the repeated jokes about Stephanie Abrams' body to be tasteless and disrespectful. I understand that some may not like her, and that's their choice. I also understand that some may find her attractive. That, too, is their choice. But the woman is a professional, not some bimbo posing for the cover of Maxim; she's got degrees in meteorology and geography (along with a minor in mathematics, fer cryin' out loud). As often as met students in this forum talk about how difficult those courses are, I'd think Ms Abrams would deserve at least here to be talked about for what she's accomplished more than the physical attributes gifted to her by her DNA. Not to mention: there aren't just hormonal males frequenting this forum. So can you guys maybe save the female body worship for WU mails or your own blogs? Please?

Not to mention the fact that the Weather Underground is now part of The Weather Channel, which means that the TWC meteorologists, including Stephanie Abrams, can now come on here and potentially see that stuff. Wouldn't really cast WU bloggers in a good light if many are seen making snide remarks/jokes like that.

Just thought I'd toss that quick point in there real quick...
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1206. JasonRE
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Jason - actually, people are doing quite a bit. The news reports show people are buying supplies and generators, and even some gas stations here are running out of or are low on gas.
You'll see a surge in people shopping tonight if they track shifts further west.
Try not to worry ... these situations can cause extra stress.


Thanks for the information. Glad I'm at work sitting here worrying about finding sand bags later. Hope there are still some left after 5 pm.
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Upgraded to 70 mph, pressure 985 for the 5pm advisory. That is my guess.
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Quoting WxLogic:




Given the current setup... possible. Specially if it keeps slowing down when is not expected to.



What shift would this be?
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Quoting GetReal:
SAY WHAT????






UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 AUG 2012 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 26:30:36 N Lon : 85:56:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 985.8mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.4 3.4

Center Temp : -69.7C Cloud Region Temp : -59.0C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG


C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 147km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.2 degrees




that is worth less and ues less i would go on what the recon says and not by that
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Palm Beach County Schools closed tomorrow due to flooding
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my eyes are telling me that its going more W-WNW but people saying its going NNE? which is it?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Now we're talking. Plenty of hurricane-force flight level winds as well as some near hurricane-force SFMR readings.

194830 2548N 08627W 8413 01450 //// 152 //// 296054 058 058 022 01
194900 2547N 08628W 8407 01457 //// 154 //// 300061 063 056 019 01
194930 2546N 08629W 8414 01454 //// 154 //// 292059 060 058 014 01
195000 2545N 08631W 8415 01455 //// 152 //// 288062 065 058 013 01
195030 2544N 08631W 8403 01471 //// 161 //// 289060 065 057 012 01
195100 2543N 08633W 8419 01462 //// 168 //// 289061 064 056 009 01
195130 2542N 08634W 8403 01479 //// 171 //// 287066 069 054 008 01
195200 2541N 08635W 8411 01474 //// 170 //// 286072 073 053 007 01
195230 2540N 08635W 8421 01466 //// 179 //// 284073 074 051 006 01
195300 2539N 08636W 8405 01484 //// 181 //// 284072 072 050 005 01
195330 2538N 08637W 8413 01478 //// 185 //// 284070 072 048 006 01
195400 2537N 08638W 8408 01486 //// 181 //// 286071 072 050 006 01
195430 2536N 08639W 8413 01482 //// 174 //// 287069 070 048 007 01


Not surprising. I expect the third or fourth passes to show Isaac as a solid Cat 1.
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1198. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:
Anybody see a shift in the model forecasts coming?

If there is a shift, it will be west, not east.
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Isaac has wobbled a little bit to the west.
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Quoting Grothar:
Anybody see a shift in the model forecasts coming?


Haven't seen it...but expect it.
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Angela is thinking Category 1...


‏@WunderAngela

I'd say there's a 95% chance that NHC increases Isaac's intensity to cat 1 in the 5pm EDT update.
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Looks like the winds are catching up now!
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Quoting presslord:
European models




i would re move that wounder blog admin was this on here
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Quoting WXGulfBreeze:


I am seeing a bit of a shift back to the east, and the models seem to be agreeing (due to stall, perhaps?) but I don't think as far as Al. / Fl. border. Being on the east side of Isaac, we're still gonna get a lot of wind and rain here on the panhandle. What you see on the Fl. peninsula is heading toward the panhandle. This storm is massive, and has pretty much ground to a standstill. Here's the Pensacola forecast:



link?
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1191. flcanes
Quoting susieq110:
Here is my Afternoon Update video blog Link

thx
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Quoting JasonRE:


Redbull, I hear ya. Where are you located again? I'm in Lafayette. I think you are too. Nobody around here is doing anything, which is surprising me. I know it's only a Cat. 1, and we are about in the center or just West of the center for landfall, but really? Just, oh yeah, we'll be fine......oh it won't be bad, etc etc.....I'm getting sandbags myself.


I am in Lafayette also. we stocked up yesterday as i had a kidney transplant in june, so i had to make sure i have all my meds and plenty to drink. I was actually supposed to go to N.O today for a dr. appt but i called and said i couldn't make it because i didn't want to get caught in that traffic coming back.I have noticed today the gas stations on the south side are running out of gas so at least some people are getting ready.
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1189. ncstorm
thats one big gap..

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Isaac should be declared a hurricane at 5pm EDT.
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1187. LargoFl
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
308 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE FOLLOWING
RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
ST. MARKS RIVER NEAR NEWPORT ON OLD MAGNOLIA RD AFFECTING WAKULLA COUNTY

.TROPICAL STORM ISAAC COULD GENERATE AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER
THE ST MARKS RIVER BASIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. DUE
TO PREVIOUS RAINFALL THE ST MARKS RIVER COULD EASILY EXCEED MODERATE FLOOD
LEVELS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO
NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN
AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.

FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PAGE PROVIDES CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER
INFORMATION...GAGE LOCATIONS...IMPACTS... AND HISTORICAL CREST INFORMATION FOR
ALL FORECAST POINTS BY CLICKING ON EACH POINT.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38532
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Isaac's southern quadrant(s) are nearly twice as intense as the northern quadrant(s). It isn't everyday that you see such an occurrence with a northern hemispheric cyclone.
If I'm not mistaken, that's typical of West Pacific Typhoons, right?
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Now that a swath of 70-75 knot flight level winds have been found to back up the previous SFMR readings very close to 74mph... I think we may just see Hurricane Isaac at 5pm.
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The Chicken Little of All Chicken Littles .. the Weather Channel has done it yet again .. scared people half to death for their own selfish wishes for ratings >> " Tampa was considered a possible landfall spot for Tropical Storm Isaac. The storm stayed well west of the city, bound apparently for Louisiana or Mississippi, and sunshine was drenching Tampa by Monday afternoon. " All this does is make things worse the next time there is a genuine threat .. people have already begun to see the " Hollywood -Like Antics " of the Weather Channel . and because of that some folks will not believe them the next time ..
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1183. GetReal
SAY WHAT????






UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 AUG 2012 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 26:30:36 N Lon : 85:56:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 985.8mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.4 3.4

Center Temp : -69.7C Cloud Region Temp : -59.0C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG


C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 147km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.2 degrees
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8874
1182. LargoFl
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Good job getting the word out Largo. :)
thank you, luckily i was able to keep folks alerted to what is going on, the other folks posting for their own area's really helped out alot..hopefully this will happen when it gets up northwards, people posting whats going on in their neck of the woods huh, anyway thanks again
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38532
Quoting CajunCrawfishhunter:


Not sure where in lafayette you are but the stores were packed 2 hours ago. Water flying off shelves. I suggest getting off computer and riding around and you will see.


New Iberia here. Gas station lines are long. People here are taking this seriously, and many seem to be making plans to leave soon.
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If it goes east, that would be the current UKMet Track.
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Quoting WunderBlogAdmin:
Please take the inappropriate sexual innuendo off of this blog. Let's keep the conversation clean.




For Presslord to read....
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Quoting presslord:
European models


Definitely Spaghetti Models
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1176. flcanes
Quoting WXGulfBreeze:


I am seeing a bit of a shift back to the east, and the models seem to be agreeing (due to stall, perhaps?) but I don't think as far as Al. / Fl. border. Being on the east side of Isaac, we're still gonna get a lot of wind and rain here on the panhandle. What you see on the Fl. peninsula is heading toward the panhandle. This storm is massive, and has pretty much ground to a standstill. Here's the Pensacola forecast:


ms/al border
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Here is my Afternoon Update video blog Link
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1173. WxLogic
Quoting Grothar:
Anybody see a shift in the model forecasts coming?




Given the current setup... possible. Specially if it keeps slowing down when is not expected to.
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Isaac's southern quadrant(s) are nearly twice as intense as the northern quadrant(s). It isn't everyday that you see such an occurrence with a northern hemispheric cyclone.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting presslord:
European models

Your wife really needs to go home soon... lol
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Doesn't look like Isaac has moved very much today.
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1169. Liann
People tend to forget the weather event we call Hurricane Katrina flooded 80,000 homes -- let me finish that thought -- flooded 80,000 homes in PENNSYLVANIA! It's not over until it's over, even after they have taken the name down off the board.
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Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 74 knots (~ 85.1 mph)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10253
1167. flcanes
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Rapid Scan Model (RUC):




too far east
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Quoting watchdog40:
Ok, starting to worry, local radio has said it could shift back east tward the pens al border, does nayone here agree with that?


I am seeing a bit of a shift back to the east, and the models seem to be agreeing (due to stall, perhaps?) but I don't think as far as Al. / Fl. border. Being on the east side of Isaac, we're still gonna get a lot of wind and rain here on the panhandle. What you see on the Fl. peninsula is heading toward the panhandle. This storm is massive, and has pretty much ground to a standstill. Here's the Pensacola forecast:

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Quoting Grothar:
Anybody see a shift in the model forecasts coming?


I would expect the motion to still be NW as a center reformation does not change the track forecast reasoning unlike a true track change resulting from overall motion being affected by a change in the steering. The apparent change in center position is not material enough IMO to affect the long term track. Let's see what the next two passes show.
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1164. snotly
I see eye?
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1163. JasonRE
Quoting CajunCrawfishhunter:


Not sure where in lafayette you are but the stores were packed 2 hours ago. Water flying off shelves. I suggest getting off computer and riding around and you will see.


Wish I could, but stuck at work. We are open tomorrow too. How nice! Can't wait to try and find sand bags at the last minute and put them out in the pouring rain!
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1162. flcanes
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Now we're talking. Plenty of hurricane-force flight level winds as well as some near hurricane-force SFMR readings.


194830 2548N 08627W 8413 01450 //// +152 //// 296054 058 058 022 01
194900 2547N 08628W 8407 01457 //// +154 //// 300061 063 056 019 01
194930 2546N 08629W 8414 01454 //// +154 //// 292059 060 058 014 01
195000 2545N 08631W 8415 01455 //// +152 //// 288062 065 058 013 01
195030 2544N 08631W 8403 01471 //// +161 //// 289060 065 057 012 01
195100 2543N 08633W 8419 01462 //// +168 //// 289061 064 056 009 01
195130 2542N 08634W 8403 01479 //// +171 //// 287066 069 054 008 01
195200 2541N 08635W 8411 01474 //// +170 //// 286072 073 053 007 01
195230 2540N 08635W 8421 01466 //// +179 //// 284073 074 051 006 01
195300 2539N 08636W 8405 01484 //// +181 //// 284072 072 050 005 01
195330 2538N 08637W 8413 01478 //// +185 //// 284070 072 048 006 01
195400 2537N 08638W 8408 01486 //// +181 //// 286071 072 050 006 01
195430 2536N 08639W 8413 01482 //// +174 //// 287069 070 048 007 01

hurricane at 5pm
or i will eat crow
tons of stocked barbecued crow on a pizza
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Rapid Scan Model (RUC):



Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting DellOperator:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 18:26Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 27
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 17:52:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°07'N 85°59'W (26.1167N 85.9833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 252 miles (405 km) to the WSW (239°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,296m (4,252ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the NW (318°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 57° at 54kts (From the ENE at ~ 62.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the NW (319°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 985mb (29.09 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,538m (5,046ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,544m (5,066ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:39:00Z

73.6mph surface winds would round to 74 which means Isaac is a hurricane... Am I right?
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"Deluge that flooded Treasure Coast caused by rain band that detached from Isaac and stalled over area - The worst was supposed to be over — until a "wave" of outlying weather from Tropical Storm Isaac stalled, deluging the Treasure Coast and spawning a destructive tornado west of Vero Beach on Monday"
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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