Isaac becomes better organized, remains a tropical storm
Isaac is gradually becoming better organized this afternoon, with winds of 60 mph and a minimum central pressure of 992 mb. A hurricane warning has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast, including Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. Strong thunderstorm activity has developed around the inner core of the storm, which is visible on both satellite and radar. This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission has found surface winds from 50 mph to 65 mph and steadily dropping pressure--a sign of a strengthening cyclone. Late in the flight, the hunters found a shift in the center to the west, which could either be a trend or just a "wobble," and could readjust. Another mission is on its way to the storm. Upper level outflow remains organized on the north side of the storm, but wind shear remains moderate (10-20 knots) to the south and southeast of Isaac, disrupting the development of organized thunderstorm activity there.
The Sombrero Key, Florida buoy is reporting sustained wind speeds around 50 mph with gusts close to 60. A weather station in Dry Tortugas National Park is reporting sustained wind speeds around 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. A tornado watch has been issued for southern Florida, and some storms with weak rotation have been spotted, but no tornado warnings have been issued. Heavy rain is falling in the Keys and southern Florida, and radar-estimated rainfall totals thus far are up to 4 inches. Scattered storms associated with Isaac reach as far north as St. Augustine, Florida this afternoon, and the storm's main rain shield is approaching Orlando.
Some Florida rainfall totals so far:
• Homestead: 6.26â€
• Miami: 2.67â€
• West Palm Beach: 1.73â€
• Key West: 1.37â€
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Isaac from around 2pm EDT on Sunday.
Track Forecast
Like this morning, the models are still disagreeing on exactly where Isaac will make landfall. The ECMWF's track remains the farthest east, and forecasts Isaac to make landfall near the Florida/Alabama border. Next to the west is the UKMET, which is predicting landfall near Mobile, Alabama. The HWRF, GFDL, and GFS are all on the western side of the envelope, with the GFDL and the GFS predicting landfall in western Louisiana, possibly close to the Louisiana/Texas border. In terms of landfall timing, it depends on the track, but we're expecting landfall early Wednesday morning. The National Hurricane Center's 5pm EDT track splits the difference between the GFS model, which is the western solution, and the ECMWF, which is the eastern. They predict Isaac will continue to move northwest over the next day or so before turning slightly to the north before approaching the Louisiana/Mississippi coastline on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Intensity Forecast
The HWRF model continues to be the most bullish on Isaac's potential intensity, forecasting the storm to reach category 3 status. The GFDL is more reserved and suggest Isaac will only reach strong category 1 wind speeds before making landfall. Given current observations, the National Hurricane Center has backed off the previous forecast that Isaac will intensify to hurricane status around the Florida Keys. They now expect Isaac to remain at tropical storm status as it moves through the central Gulf of Mexico before finally strengthening as it approaches the coast and become a category 2 hurricane just before landfall.
Figure 2. Model forecasts of Isaac's potential track.
Portlight update
"We are coordinating a pro-active response to potential Hurricane Isaac's landfall along the Gulf Coast. This pro-active response is a major step forward for Portlight and would not have been possible without each of you that have been involved over the past four years since our large scale disaster relief effort after Hurricane Ike devastated the Texas Gulf Coast. The response to Hurricane Ike was a profound effort of everyone working together which accomplished a lot of great things including repatriating BillyBadBird, feeding the Bolivar Peninsula, delivering needed supplies to Bridge City, Tx (which was inundated by Ike's surge), providing medical equipment to the disabled, and the heart warming Christmas Party for the residents of Bridge City, Tx. It was truly a group effort and none of it would have been possible if we had not had so many step up, get involved, and provide support and assistance in whatever way each individual could."
You can donate to Portlight's disaster relief fund here.
Dr. Masters will have an update tomorrow morning, and you can catch him on The Weather Channel throughout the evening.
Angela
Reader Comments
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sheri
Regardless of where he makes landfall, he will bring a ton of flooding rain to a large swath of the united states.
This storm has not followed historical patterns/probabilities thus far. I wouldn't count on it to start doing so now
And it is to be expected. As we know its not a perfect science. The cones shift and that's just part of the process.
26°1' N, 85°22' W -- 10:37am this morning
Last buoy observation:
26°3' N, 85°37' W -- 10:50am this morning
It is amazing how close to the buoy this was! The stats on the storm, from buoy readings, are:
a. 29.21in pressure, or 989.16 MB
b. 17.1 ft wave height (SE eye wall)
c. 85.1 °F water temperature
We now have OVER 10" of rain, you can float a boat down the street, except so windy and rainy it is white capping!
Water is now in neighbor's garage and starting to get in ours.. patio is almost flooded..
Back yard and pool is under water and water now up half way to front of house.. Side walk is about 7" deep....
Our area has gotten way more than our share of rain from Isaac, just not fair.. other areas needs some of this.
We were already soggy before Isaac.
Hope you are all good and safe...
Stay safe and use da shields i sent you. If he doesnt get stacked better than he is right now looks like a rain and storm surge event
That feeling when you're directly in the path of an oncoming hurricane, and your college posts the message:
"All campus activities remain scheduled; there are no cancellations to report. Stay tuned to local weather advisories for the latest storm information."
:O
There will be heavy inland rainfall trying to drain into that surge as well.
Check the Mobile NWS web site for info.
00Z Euro calls for AL/MS landfall which I think is not happening - Sure, Euro was the first one to elude to a more WEST path but it's doesn't bode well for a model IF it's going to be wrong 2-3 days out from a landfall.. who cares what it was predicting 5 days ago..
And remember, Euro along with UKMET are the only EAST outliers. 12Z run can change all that BUT for now GFS may prove better than EURO; Debby and now potentially Issac.
Nothing closed in Central Florida. Still having heavy squalls, tornado warnings/watches and rolling THUNDER. I don't recall having thunder and lightning in tropical systems.
Can the blob pounding Florida be described in anyway separate from Issac now? It's like a system of it's own now.
Model Name 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr 120hr
OFCL 1.0 57.0 69.1 62.6 114.4 199.8
RYOC 0 47.2 75.7 49.2 75.7 175.4
TCOA 0 59.9 78.5 77.0 105.3 182.5
TV15 0 59.3 76.6 88.6 117.7 161.9
TVCA 0 61.3 69.9 69.6 99.0 141.8
TVCC 0 60.7 65.5 68.3 102.8 169.7
TVCE 0 61.3 69.9 69.6 99.0 141.8
TVCN 0 61.3 69.9 69.6 99.0 141.8
EGRR 25.6 60.6 85.6 75.7 61.9 132.0
FIM9 24.1 50.0 68.5 90.6 134.4 -
MRCL 0 54.6 67.2 72.1 - -
I think for an adjuster you are pretty nearsighted. This storm is far from a dud, and I think people are not taking it seriously enough.
New Orleans certainly has plenty of things to worry about...and I bet Mobile Bay does as well.
Thanks!
Yes, I would not read anything into that. They have not reported info on the eye several times over the past 3 days.
Nope, he is with the margin or error that was reported by most models 4 days ago.
I lived most my life in Katy and was living in MN when I was following Rita and then Ike. I remember real people in Katy sincerely asking the Sci Guy if they should evacuate. I heard I-10 and Hwy 6 were a mess!
she effected all of the Mexican coast,all of the Texas coast, sw La too. Check out her rain field
If it goes into NO, then we will have plenty of rain, some storm surge on the coast and the threat of tornado's all day. If he stalls as anticipated by some, those conditions will be around for several days.
Well said. No guarantees on an exact center landfall yet; and, since there's a large windfield most of the coastal areas will feel considerable degraded conditions including wind, tornadoes, surge and copious amounts of rain. No one should be taking this lightly.
Bolaven has amassed an ace of 34.5975...
You bet!
Not coming to Houston, Odds are very slim. Stranger things have happened, but not this time.
I can not even begin to imagine what TWC coverage would be like if a CAT 4 or 5 got into the GULF...but it all gets down to the ratings NBC is hoping for hurricane after hurricane........
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