Isaac lashing the Keys; an eyewall is building

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:48 PM GMT on August 26, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac is steadily organizing as it lashes the Florida Keys with heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds. Sustained winds of 44 mph and 41 mph have been observed at Molasses Reef and Sombrero Key, respectively, this morning. Radar out of Key West shows an increase in spiral banding, and the beginnings of an eyewall. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft completed its first pass through the center of Isaac near 11:30 am EDT, and did not find the pressure had fallen, or that the peak winds had increased. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac is a large and increasingly well-organized storm. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow is quite good and increasing to the north, but is lacking elsewhere. Moderate wind shear and dry air to the south are interfering with heavy thunderstorm development on Isaac's south side. Heavy rains from Isaac are lingering over Haiti and the Dominican Republic; flash floods in Haiti from Isaac's torrential rains killed at least four people.


Figure 1. Morning reflectivity image from the Radar out of Key West radar shows the northwest section of an eyewall beginning to form to the southeast of the city.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs have diverged significantly, and we can no longer be confident we know where Isaac will make landfall on the Gulf Coast. One camp of models, the UKMET and ECMWF, predict that a trough of low pressure moving across the Southeast U.S. will be strong enough to turn Isaac north to a landfall in the Florida Panhandle. The other set of models, the GFDL, GFS, and HWRF, predict the trough will bypass Isaac, and a ridge of high pressure will build in and force Isaac to a landfall over Louisiana. The official NHC forecast averages out these two extremes, calling for a landfall midway between the two solutions. Odds are, one of the two model solutions will turn out to be the correct one, and the NHC will be forced to make a substantial adjustment in their forecast track to the east or the west. Isaac has the potential to drop torrential rains capable of causing serious flooding and drought relief over the South. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model calls for 10 - 20 inches of rain over Southeast Louisiana, where it predicts Isaac will make landfall. The ECMWF model, however, these heavy rains will fall more over the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, and Georgia.


Figure 2. A hurricane forecaster's dilemma: which set of models is correct? The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs have diverged significantly. Our two top models--the GFS and ECMWF--have 72-hour forecasts that are about 350 miles apart. The ECMWF forecast is not shown here, but lies just to the west of the UKMET forecast (white line.)

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac survived passage over Hispaniola and Cuba relatively intact. It's large size aided this. Isaac is over very warm waters of 31°C (88°F) with high total heat content in the Florida Straits, but is encountering moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots due to upper-level winds out of the southwest. This shear is predicted to relax to the light range tonight as an upper-level anticyclone becomes established over the storm. This should allow for more substantial intensification after Isaac passes the Florida Keys. However, the total heat content of the ocean decreases for Isaac Monday morning as it encounters a relatively cool ocean eddy in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. If Isaac takes a more westerly track, passing due south of the Central Louisiana coast, the storm will encounter a modest warm eddy, which would aid intensification. The intensify forecasts from the various models are very divergent. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model keeps Isaac as a strong tropical storm until landfall in Louisiana. Isaac will undergo rapid intensification into a Category 3 hurricane as it hits New Orleans, says the latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the HWRF model. The ECMWF model has Isaac as a strong Category 2 storm with a central pressure near 950 mb as it hits near the Alabama/Florida border.

Comparing Isaac with Ike of 2008
The current situation with Isaac is similar in some ways to that of Hurricane Ike of 2008. Ike spent considerable time over Cuba, weakening from a Category 4 to a Category 1 storm. The storm couldn't put its energy into building a strong inner core, but it was able to build up its outer rainbands that were over very warm waters. This resulted in a major expansion of its wind field, with tropical storm-force winds extending out 275 miles from the center at one point. Ike was able to intensify into a Category 2 storm on its path towards Texas, and had an unusually low pressure for a Cat 2 storm with 100 mph winds--944 mb. That's a central pressure more typical of a Category 3 storm, but Ike could only manage Category 2 winds, since it had such a large chunk of the atmosphere to keep spinning. With Isaac's TS winds already extending out to 205 miles, maybe we'll see another Ike-type situation as it intensifies--the storm will have an unusually low pressure in order to keep a huge wind field spinning, but never make it above Category 2, since it will take so long to spin up such a large wind field.

Storm surge forecast for Isaac
Isaac is a very large storm, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out 205 miles from the center. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina at landfall had tropical storm-force winds that extended out 230 miles from its center. Isaac's large size will enable it to set a large area of the ocean into motion, which will generate a large storm surge once the storm approaches land on the Gulf Coast. The latest 3:30 am EDT Integrated Kinetic Energy analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Isaac's winds near 0 on a scale of 1 to 6, but the destructive potential of Isaacs's storm surge was 2.1 on a scale of 1 to 6. A 2008 paper by Irish et al., The influence of storm size on hurricane surge, found that large storms like Isaac are capable to delivering a 30% larger storm surge to the coast than a smaller storm with the same maximum wind speeds. The angle with which the storm hit the coast is important, too--a storm moving due north or slightly east of north will deliver a storm surge about 10% greater than a storm moving NNW or NW. Consult our Storm Surge pages for detailed information on what the risk is for the coast. I expect that Isaac's storm surge will be about 30% higher than the typical surge one would expect based on the maximum wind speeds.

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located about 650 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 50% chance of developing by Tuesday morning. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that a tropical wave that has not yet emerged from the coast of Africa may develop late this week, and potentially take a more westward track towards the Lesser Antilles, arriving around September 2.

Angela Fritz will have a new post here by 6 pm EDT. For the next few days, I plan to do the morning blog post, and Angela will be doing the late afternoon post. I'm in Atlanta to help out The Weather Channel with their on-air hurricane coverage, and will be on either in the afternoon or evening on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Seven years ago today, to the hour:



Le Deja Vu, anyone?


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Quoting GetReal:
Isaac takes out the Texas Death Ridge, bringing rain to Texas...

what texas death ridge of doom that killed don and lee
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Quoting Levi32:
Everyone in south Florida please stay safe today.



thx levi TS conditions here in kendall 50mph gusts
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Quoting ITCZ:



AWESOME. Thank you so much for taking the time to do this! I started a "detailed" action plan last night, but you have some wonderful ideas (necessity=mother of invention) I wouldn't have dreamed of in a million years. Kudos to you and glad you survived.

kudos to him, too
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Isaac takes out the Texas Death Ridge, bringing rain to Texas...
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8871



It seems to be GFS is painting a really bad scenerio for SE Texas. And I don't see any reason right now given the continued WNW motion of the storm that we won't have additional westward shifts at 5 pm or later tonight.


Not good.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

102 hrs

ouch, very ike-ish
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116. ITCZ
Quoting treehuggingsister:
From our blog (originally written to help w/ Irene):

Full disclosure. major dad and I are veterans of major Hurricanes Bertha, Fran, Ivan and Dennis (along with others less significant in damage for us, but worth preparing for). Thanks to Irene visiting brother Bingley last year, I thought I would offer up what's worked for us in terms of preparation, both food-wise, house-wise PLUS some of the things folks don't know about, that make life bearable if those winds of almost-September come early. I hope you'll find something that you didn't know before. First up is the heavy lifting.

For Bertha and Fran in NC (Cat 2 and 3, 56 days apart in ’96), we only lived 10 miles inland, were on the eastern side of the storm both times (translation: got beat all to hell), never boarded up and did just fine. The most important thing we did, and have always done, is CLEAR THE AREA OF POTENTIAL FLYING OBJECTS. Anything and everything in our yard AND the neighborhood that could be turned into a missile (including that 100lb garden pot you don’t think can fly…it can), goes into the garage. Bertha came in during the daytime and, along around noon, we got to watch the neighbor’s metal shed explode and fly through our backyard at about 110 mph. That was the only thing we couldn’t control that day that went walkabout, and it would have killed someone if the wind hadn’t been parallel to the house.

How-To's for PLYWOOD BOARDING of your windows WITH PICTURES at my WunderBlog

Alright, shopping time.

IMHO and hard won experience, these are stores every single household should have (and you may already have much of it). Use your brain, based on the number and age of folks in your household.
Remember you are going to be HOT, cranky and exerting yourself in the aftermath if, GOD FORBID, the thing smacks you good.
Think of preparing for this as a picnic on crack. Take a good hard look at what you already have on your shelves first, add or subtract according to what you have onhand vs your particular needs/family’s tastes and then…

A Few Days PRIOR (three days out may be TOO LATE to find everything):

3 gallons BOTTLED water per person (for 3 days) minimum
enough prescription medication to get you through 10 DAYS if you take any
canned tuna/chicken/SPAM/shelf stable meats
those damned nasty vienna snausages
canned chili
beenie weenies
canned soups like “chunky” that don’t need water added
mayo/mustard/ketchup
bread (Get the one with the FURTHEST OUT SHELF DATE)
canned vegetables, like green beans or baby peas
kraft macaroni and cheese in a box
dry cereal
instant oatmeal
squeezy cheese
large jar(s) peanut butter
large jar(s) jelly
various boxes of crackers
instant coffee or tea
coffemate, dry milk or shelf stable milk
sugar, salt, pepper
juice boxes
instant potatoes (like a BIG box of “Potato Buds”)
whatever fresh fruit your family enjoys
butter or (gulp) margarine
dogfood/catfood if you have furry family members besides, well…
snacks and chips
canned or plastic jarred fruits, like cocktail or peaches
pudding cups
dish detergent
antiseptic hand soap
paper towels
paper napkins
plastic utensils (forks, knives,spoons)
paper plates
plastic trash bags
ZIPLOCK baggies, QT and GAL
DUCK tape
boxes of wooden matches
MANUAL CAN OPENER
large candles (and not really stinky ones) WITH a GAS LEAK, CANDLES CAN BE BAD. **SITUATIONAL AWARENESS** KNOW what’s going on.
bug spray, both yard and personal
A BATTERY OPERATED RADIO (that voice in the dark from the local TV station will be your BEST FRIEND, trust me.)
LARGE BATTERY OPERATED LIGHTS that will sit independently (hard to go to a dark bathroom holding a flashlight)
small flashlights
LED poplights are great
BATTERIES and SPARES that fit EVERY SINGLE THING YOU NEED BATTERIES FOR!!!
FILL YOUR PROPANE CANNISTER NOW (if you are on a direct gas hook-up, get a charcoal grill)
3 bags of charcoal
lighter fluid for the charcoal
CASH
CAR CHARGER for cell phones (ours were worthless during Ivan but I’ve heard they’ve come a long way, tower-wise…)
COOLERS for the ice (and the stuff that’ll come out of that fridge)
FIRST AID KIT which I bolster with additional Ace bandages, BandAids of every size and description, sterile wraps, tapes, Neosporin, hydrocortizone, anti-histimine pills, aspirin etc.
Little Coleman tanks if you have camping stoves or lights (as always, to be used OUTSIDE AFTERWARDS…DUH)
Old fashioned board games, playing cards, Mille Bornes, Yahtzee, books (especially with wired little ones)

Hold off on ice until the latest you possibly can, which is why it’s NOT on the “go after work TONIGHT” list. TOP YOUR GAS TANKS off while you can. You all will have to fight a ton more people at the pump than we ever did down here.

*DIRECT plug-in phone like a Princess type, if you have a PHONE COMPANY landline. Your multiple remote handset phone will not work when the power goes out, and your old fashioned one may very well get a call out on the substation batteries. See below.

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

When you’re ready to close the house up, LOCK YOUR GARAGE DOORS DOWN. If you don’t park in your garage, PULL YOUR CARS SNUG UP TO THE DOORS. They provide the most excellent wind baffle you can imagine and, considering the further up the East Coast you go, the less the doors are reinforced like ours here in the Panhandle, you will NEED every little bit of wind mitigation you can muster. You car insurance will take car of whatever Irene does to the vehicle.

This is doubly important because, contrary to the old wives tale about “equalizing pressure’, if those winds get into your garage, not only do they start tearing the garage to bits, they start LIFTING YOUR ROOF OFF. And then your whole house is a goner. The only house in our neighborhood to have the roof blown to bits during the 140mph+ gusts of Ivan was the ONE home where the owner had the garage door “cracked” opened to “relieve the pressure”.
************************************************** ************************************************** *****
*What to Do Inside*

Get Your Important “Stuff” Together


Your papers, diplomas, etc. All those things that make your life identifiable? Those things your would rush out of a burning building with? If they’re not already in one place together, get them together NOW. And add one more thing ~ a copy of a utility bill, like electric or phone. If, God forbid, you have to evacuate and they work it like they do down here, that address on your drivers license WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT PROOF OF YOUR RESIDENCY. You HAVE to have a utility bill with THAT address and YOUR name in your possession to return to your home. Period. (Great evacuation tips here in the comments.)
Have a “plan”. WHO are you going to call when it’s over, WHO knows where all your stuff is if, God forbid, something happens. If you get separated, have a meet-up. In our family, it’s Bingster and me tag-teaming. He has all our info for both sides of the family (including Kcruella). When the batteries on the landline substations were still working the morning after Ivan, I got a call out to him, and that’s how everyone else knew we were okay. AT&T screwed the pooch cell-phone-wise here, so we have KEPT our landline, in spite of everything. Trauma dies hard.

What to Do With Important “Stuff”

You all will laugh, but I double plastic bag it, duct tape it…and put it in the dishwasher, then latch the thing shut and tape over the entire front control panel. It’s waterproof and even if one of those spin-up tornados takes a chunk of the roof, the documents of my life are going nowhere, because they’re bolted under the counter and DRY. Other middlin’ precious things I double bag up as well and stash in a rack-free self-cleaning oven and the dryer (duct-taping the door of that shut).

Potable Water

Make sure every single water toting vessel is clean and filled with filtered (if you can) water, from the sun-tea jar to the ancient Igloo softball cooler to tea kettle, and all the pitchers in between. This augments the bottled water on your list and is the FIRST water you use. (Make sure it’s COVERED to keep out bugs/dust.) As well, EVERY POT is filled to the brim with tap water for use as either coffee/tea/mac ‘n cheese makings or wash/rinse water, as well as pet drinking water. All that’s staged on the kitchen counters.

Get ALL Your Laundry Done

You can run out of underwear FAST and blow through some serious t-shirts clearing flotsom. Plus, the second the last load is out of the washer, fill it up on it’s largest setting with cold water and STOP it. Voilà. Another source of water for rinse/washing. (The washing machine also makes an EXCELLENT ice cooler if you are space challenged, trust me. Fill it with THAT instead.)

Bathrooms

Scrub EVERY tub SPARKLING With a bleach based cleaner. We use a piece of saran wrap over the stopper, then plug it to make absolutely sure there’s NO leakage, then FILL THAT SUCKER UP. This becomes both relatively clean water to dip out for a sink sponge bath AND the ALL IMPORTANT FLUSH THE TOILET water. (And is ONLY used for…well, not tinkling.) Speaking of which, it doesn’t hurt to have a “Tidy Bowl” beforehand, if there’s a chance the power might be out for DAYS, if you get my drift…
Now, you may get lucky and have a trickle of water like we did after Fran, but the water company may beg you not to use it, because they’re trying to find leaks, or it’s not potable or whatever. (Another reason to HAVE A REAL RADIO: PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENTS CAN SAVE YOUR LIFE)

GIVE YOUR PETS AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES TO “DO THEIR BUSINESS”. Once the front door shuts on the howling outside, it’s shut for GOOD. If it comes in during the day, we make meals a tad lighter and earlier than usual. The Scotties and Labradors have always seemed to know something big was on the way and their systems have responded accordingly, but, let’s face it: when you gotta go, you gotta go. So don’t force the poor things into that position in the first place. Plenty of available water, but schmaybe that big dinner/breakfast isn’t necessary, okay?

LOCAL RADIO STATIONS (as well as simulcasts from local TV channels or your local university Public Radio) WILL BE YOUR BEST SOURCE OF WEATHER INFO for your area, not to mention what’s happening as the storm whirls overhead. John Ed Thompson out of Fox10, Mobile, AL is a GOD in our household for what he did during Ivan. At 3 in the morning, when ~ to quote the Squid Terrorist on the walkie talkie from next door ~ it “Sounds like the Devil’s trying to beat my front door down! I’m fixin’ to nail 2×4′s over it and, if that doesn’t work, I’m breaking apart the china cabinet to use IT!”

Creature Comforts

While you’re busy as a bee, I always, ALWAYS recommend setting the thermostat on your A/C (while you have it) as LOW AS YOU CAN POSSIBLY STAND IT.

As in MEATLOCKER. Wearing SWEATS IN AUGUST cold. “But, ths, why?” you ask.

Because the second that power goes out and ALL those anxious people are still in your house in August breathing?

That temp is going to climb and F.A.S.T. And it will suck so bad.

And you will still have HOURS of storm to go, and schmaybe days without power. You’ll thank me.

The Refrigerator


We were sort of old school with this. As I told Bingley in the comments, this is what we’ve always done, and ONLY works with a mostly FULL FREEZER. Once we’ve gotten ice ~ usually three to four of the big coolers worth, then three stacked on each other, on a beach towel, covered with garbage bags, then blankets for insulation ~ we already have inventoried the fridge itself. When the power starts going dodgey, we’ll transfer all the perishables out of the fridge to the lone ice chest (milk, BACON, eggs, half & half, etc.) and shut the door FOR GOOD. That’s IT. No peeking, no forgetting, no going in for something ~ you want the fridge to cool completely back down. When the power finally gives up the ghost, we throw unopened, big plastic garbage bags over the whole fridge, then cover that with packing blankets or whatever you have. Wrap some duct tape around it and keep your paws off. Believe or not, that will keep all but the flimsiest frozen goods rock solid for at least three days. If you don’t have power by then, you can start defrosting stuff and eating it. *NEVER eat anything that’s partially thawed. Throw it out. (*CHECK FOR THIS THE SECOND THE POWER COMES BACK ON as well, or it’ll refreeze and you could easily get sick from it later, and be clueless why. Don’t take the chance.)

With your ice chests, just break them out as you need them, always keeping the extras covered. We had ice for a week and a half after Ivan doing it this way, and thank goodness. (The stack worked out great against the door when the winds were threatening to blow it in. Dual purpose! And good times…)

There is NOTHING like the comfort of knowing you did everything you could possibly do to prepare. It’s out of your hands from that point forward.

Have a cocktail.

It’s amazing how many knuckleheads who evacuated and watched the whole damn thing on TV came home empty handed, small children in tow no less! We were living like refugees and had to give THEM supplies.

DO NOT RUN OUTSIDE THE SECOND THE WIND SORT OF DIES DOWN

Trees will still be falling. On your gourd.

DO NOT GO LOLLYGAGGING AROUND AFTERWARD TO “SEE”

No electricity TO RUN GAS STATION PUMPS. No electricity TO RUN STOP LIGHTS. LIVE ELECTRICAL WIRES LAYING EVERYWHERE Flat tires upon multiple flat tires.

IT’S ANARCHY. STAY HOME.


Whip you up some coffee, scrambled eggs and lovely applewood smoked bacon sammiches on the Weber gas grill, like we’ve done the morning after EVERY hurricane.

It’s a good thing.



AWESOME. Thank you so much for taking the time to do this! I started a "detailed" action plan last night, but you have some wonderful ideas (necessity=mother of invention) I wouldn't have dreamed of in a million years. Kudos to you and glad you survived.
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Quoting TXCWC:
NHC director on weather channel said 12Z runs WOULD HAVE LAST NIGHTS NOAA JET INFO IN THEIR RUNS...if GFS is any indication of what's to come in other model runs official forecast track may see an upcoming big shift further west...GFS rakes entire Louisiana Coasy and finally makes complete landfall near TX/LA border.



When does the next Gonzo flight start?
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Quoting AussieStorm:

C. Strength of Bermuda High, hence the more westerly track.


Good point. That plays into how strong the trough will be.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:

102 hrs



Its not out yet.
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Everyone in south Florida please stay safe today.
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Link



Worst of the storm is now nearing Key West

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Quoting dader:
Good thing they closed Miami-Dade schools tomorrow huh Dade County residents. Ridiculous


Same here in Broward. It will be a nice day for the kids to play outside. My daughter lucked out!!
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Good afternoon.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, August 26th, with Video
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Quoting newportrinative:
For those of us in Broward County Max Mayfield just on local news and says the weather is not going to get any worse. Continued rain/wind storms to come thru but also mentioned how dry the SE side of storm is. Looks like just a rainy/windy Sunday for us.


I hope this is as bad as it is going to get.. there is nothing dry about my area of Broward... I know you over by the beach don't get the rain we do out west...
we are soggy...before this started...our drainage canals and lakes are full before this started..

we are going be flooded big time...
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Quoting TXCWC:
NHC director on weather channel said 12Z runs WOULD HAVE LAST NIGHTS NOAA JET INFO IN THEIR RUNS...if GFS is any indication of what's to come in other model runs official forecast track may see an upcoming big shift further west...GFS rakes entire Louisiana Coasy and finally makes complete landfall near TX/LA border.


ouch
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102 hrs
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Question...how old are you?

Ignore him.
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Quoting dader:
Good thing they closed Miami-Dade schools tomorrow huh Dade County residents. Ridiculous

even more ridiculous???
closing of broward and palm beach county schools
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102. TXCWC
NHC director on weather channel said 12Z runs WOULD HAVE LAST NIGHTS NOAA JET INFO IN THEIR RUNS...if GFS is any indication of what's to come in other model runs official forecast track may see an upcoming big shift further west...GFS rakes entire Louisiana Coasy and finally makes complete landfall near TX/LA border.

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Quoting SykKid:
isaac pressure 996? wow he really struggling im so happy that he cant get his act together. look like any chances of him ever becoming a major hurricane are dreasing by the hour! :)))))

?? No its not! LOL!
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Quoting newportrinative:
For those of us in Broward County Max Mayfield just on local news and says the weather is not going to get any worse. Continued rain/wind storms to come thru but also mentioned how dry the SE side of storm is. Looks like just a rainy/windy Sunday for us.


what did he say about dade county
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Some are talking about a left hook after landfall. I know that this sounds stupid, but the models show a right turn as he makes landfall. Where is the left hook suggestions coming from? Thanks.
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Hi everyone, Isaac is here in Broward County also.
Not hurricane wind but nasty windy bands of heavy rain.

we already got 1.5" in my neighborhood after just last night and early this morning and raining hard now.
Another band is coming thru and they are bad.

our side yard is flooded and now streets are flooding.

This storm may bring us flooding like Irene did in 1999. We had boats going down street and water was thigh high in center of street..

Hope you all stay safe.. I am posting in my blog as I can and a few others from Broward or S FLA are there also if you want to check in .

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For those of us in Broward County Max Mayfield just on local news and says the weather is not going to get any worse. Continued rain/wind storms to come thru but also mentioned how dry the SE side of storm is. Looks like just a rainy/windy Sunday for us.
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Well this is just getting worse as time goes by isn't it .

For me anyway.
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I'm not gonna lie. I'm surprised I can still hear jets landing at the airport....
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Quoting nofailsafe:


These westward shifts are troublesome, especially since it has plenty of latitude left to make that turn. Fill yer' tanks today.

yep, gas will go up,up,up
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Quoting Stoopid1:
As the model split says, this comes down to;

A. The strength of the trough and
B. Isaac's strength, which plays into A.

Hard to say which camp will be right.

C. Strength of Bermuda High, hence the more westerly track.
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Good thing they closed Miami-Dade schools tomorrow huh Dade County residents. Ridiculous
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True mets and Scientists don't give opinions.
Quoting help4u:
Dr. Masters no opinion on what you think storm will do?Intensity,track?You are the expert would like your opinion.

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Where can i watch TWC live stream?
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Just got very dark, and very windy.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting SykKid:
isaac pressure 996? wow he really struggling im so happy that he cant get his act together. look like any chances of him ever becoming a major hurricane are dreasing by the hour! :)))))

Question...how old are you?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31994
Vacation.
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
I think STORMTOP hacked the computer models.

Where is Patrap? Haven't seen him on in a while.

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Quoting Stormchaser121:

96 hrs


For goodness sakes...that's just not right.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2348
This phrase alone from Dr Masters, "The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs have diverged significantly, and we can no longer be confident we know where Isaac will make landfall on the Gulf Coast." proves that we should NEVER be confident we can predict where these things will go 5 days out. Those yesterday that were saying Alabama and Mississippi were out of the woods ... well, I know that we're all on here just expressing our opinions, but some folks come here for guidance, and it's hard for them to know who to trust, since everyone appears to be an expert.
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Since their is no much uncertainty, the cone should include the gfs and the euro...this would stretch from Cameron Parish Louisiana to Destin Florida.....don't understand why NHC just doesn't make the conde wider since the EURO and GFS are over 300 miles apart...
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Quoting jpsb:
Someone asked about the time needed to evac Houston. Most of Houston does not need to evac. However almost all of Galveston county and S.E. Harris county does and that takes about 36-48 hours, if handled properly. Galveston Island first then next closest to the gulf.
Certainly hope there will be no need to evacuate this area (Galveston bay area). So far we are not even in the cone. But the westward shifts are very troublesome.


These westward shifts are troublesome, especially since it has plenty of latitude left to make that turn. Fill yer' tanks today.
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Quoting aspectre:
25Aug.12pmGMT: 19.7n73.7w (327.0*NWest@19.0knots) 50knots, 998millibars, TS
25Aug.06pmGMT: 20.8n75.3w (308.1*NWest@17.9knots) 50knots, 997millibars, TS
26Aug.12amGMT: 21.7n76.7w (304.7*NWest@15.9knots) 50knots, 997millibars, TS
26Aug.6amGMT's numbers are below, before 26Aug.12pmGMT's
Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormIsaac for 26August12pmGMT
MinimumPressure held at 995millibars
MaxSusWinds increased from 50knots(58mph)93km/h to55knots(62mph)102km/h
Vector changed from 308.5*NWest@20.4mph(32.8km/h) to 293.2*NWest@20.7mph(33.3km/h)

7FA1-SugarloafKey :: MTH-Marathon :: CCC-CayoCoco :: MOA-Moa :: BCA-Baracoa

The southeasternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Isaac's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Isaac's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29kilometres) to a coastline
25Aug.12pmGMT: TS.Isaac had been headed for a 1:50pmGMT landfall on Punta de Maisi,Cuba (right,nearBCAdumbbell). followed by passage 8.2miles(13.1kilometres)NEast of DuncanTown,RaggedIsland,Bahamas (right,DCTdumbbell)
25Aug.2pmGMT: TS.Isaac made landfall on PuntaCaleta,Cuba
25Aug.6pmGMT: TS.Isaac had been headed for passage over MarathonFlorida (left,MTHblob)
26Aug.12amGMT: TS.Isaac had been headed for passage over SugarloafKey
26Aug.6amGMT: TS.Isaac had been headed for passage over GrassyKey (right,MTHblob)
26Aug.12pmGMT: TS.Isaac was heading for a 1:25pmGMT passage 2.9miles(4.7kilometres)SSWest of CaySal,Bahamas (dot touching the top of the straightline projection)<BR>then proceeding to a 9:32pmGMT passage 4miles(6.5kilometres)SSWest of FortJefferson,Florida in ~5&1/2.hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste snj, 7fa1,24.621n81.517w, mth, 24.722n81.015w-24.747n80.969w, elh, dct-22.219n75.586w, ccc, moa, 20.067n74.461w-20.189n74.139w, bca, 19.7n73.8w-20.8n75.3w, 20.8n75.3w-21.7n76.7w, 21.7n76.7w-22.8n78.2w, 22.8n78.2w-23.5n80.0w, 22.8n78.2w-24.571n82.897w, 24.626n82.873w-24.571n82.897w, 22.8n78.2w-23.664n80.428w, 23.703n80.41w-23.664n80.428w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
FYI, the Cay Sal Bank mentioned above is an atoll that is at the western edge of the Bahamas. Until it crosses Cay Sal, the storm continues to traverse Bahamian waters.
I'm going to listen to the local news later this p.m. to see if we have reports from the more southerly islands that were most exposed to Isaac's winds and rain.
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Well that is just freaking great.


Not bad enough it comes this way but then stall and rain.


I hope GFS is wrong on this one I really do.
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Not possible.

Quoting Kris50:
Thanks

TX and LA are doomed, they need to evacuate everyone.

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As the model split says, this comes down to;

A. The strength of the trough and
B. Isaac's strength, which plays into A.

Hard to say which camp will be right.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.